# OpenAIs New Statement On GPT-5 Is Surprising!

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** TheAIGRID
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo6fZrH52J8
- **Дата:** 29.10.2024
- **Длительность:** 13:00
- **Просмотры:** 43,996
- **Источник:** https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/13898

## Описание

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## Транскрипт

### Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00) []

meetings I get to go to once in a while is the research meeting and it would blow your mind to see what's already coming so open AI have recently come out with a statement that I think is truly fascinating as it gives an insight to what they are working on behind the scenes at open AI so this interview was done on Bloomberg it was with open ai's CEO Sarah frier she is the Chief Financial Officer of opening eye since June 2024 and she actually gives her insights with as to what she thinks Sam mman would say if he was sitting in that chair and not only that also about the fact that this is mindblowing last meetings I get to go to once in a while blow your mind to see what's already coming so one of the key pieces of insights we got from this interview was that every week there is a research meeting in which they discuss what is coming for the future this was something that I didn't know before but it's clear that now this is public information we can Now understand that every week openai are having a meeting discussing some of their future capabilities and some of the Future model releases now she says that in that meeting the meeting is constantly managing to blow her mind which does state that whatever she's seeing in those meetings and whatever is being presented and discussed about the future capabilities means that open AI are largely still ahead of the competition so that is something that is probably news to you as it was news to me now it doesn't surprise me that there is of course a research meeting in which they discuss the future of the company but it does kind of shock me that they're openly stating that look these meetings that we're having about the future technology is really shocking now I know most people are going to immediately say that this isn't true like open AI are just funding their own hype train so that they can get more investment from investors but I would argue that this might not be the truth okay for those of you that think that this is just pure marketing hype we have to take a little bit of a journey back in time so if you remember at the time that we had GPT 3. 5 a lot of people would have thought at that time that GPT 3. 5 was absolutely incredible now of course when we were looking at GPT 3. 5 back then we were like wow this is a mind-blowing tool and this tool completely shoted up in terms of the popularity it was the fastest application to gain 100 million users surpassing every previous social media platform now the crazy thing about this is that do you remember at that time openi would have already had GPT 4 remember GPT 4 actually finished training in August of 2022 2 which was before the release of chat GPT so you have to think about it like this gp4 okay was finished training even before the release of chap GPT which means they were ahead of the public by quite some time and when GPT 4 dropped you do remember that model had stayed at the frontier for around 2 years before any of the labs came anywhere near to the capabilities that openi had now of course you could argue that opening eye since then has you know maybe lost a lead to claw 3. 5 Sonet but even with the 01 preview model I would argue that this feat is even more impressive the only problem that I see with the 01 preview model is that for most average Everyday Use cases there just isn't much use for the average person the model is tailored to areas like biology physics chemistry and Mathematics and unless you're someone that's constantly working with these kinds of problems it's quite unlikely that you're going to get any value out of the model which is why I don't think there has been such a substantial increase in terms of the average person realizing just how smart these models are to come now another thing that was said in this interview that I think was quite thought-provoking but a constant reminder to the kinds of future that we're going towards was the fact that she said okay that if Sam mman were sitting on this chair he would say that you know AGI is closer than most people think now this is actually quite true think if Sam were sitting on the seat he would tell you Aji is closer than most think and now I think most people like I said before would take that statement and say okay this is just the AGI hype train but like I said before when we look across the industry for any kinds of predictions for the future we do get a constant theme in terms of the dates of not just super intelligence but actual human level reasoning that's going to surpass any average human for example if we take a look at Sam alman's

### Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00) [5:00]

blog called the intelligence age this was released on September the 23rd 2024 this blog actually talks about the next couple of decades what's coming in the next hundreds of thousands of days and what we can see here is that it is remarkable to see exactly where things are headed this was just published by Sam mman on his Twitter and he just posted this is my vision for the future and one of the crazy statements that was actually in this I'm not sure if you guys managed to see this but one of the most quoted statements that most people took away from this was the fact that he said this may turn out to be the most consequential fact about all of history so far it is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days and it may take longer but I'm confident that we'll get there now the craziest thing about this is the fact that like this statement a few years ago would have been ridicul ued and taken apart by critics and those who just don't believe in ai's potential but this statement becomes more and more realistic the more we start to look at how powerful AI is continuing to become now of course I will state that saying that it is possible that we'll have superintelligence in a few thousand days could be anywhere from a th days to 10,000 days which is of course 3 years to 10 years but the crazy thing about this is that there are still more predictions from this article and predictions from other industry leaders that share the same idea that those are opening ey do and remember it isn't just random people across the internet stating this is some of the most accomplished AI researchers in their space making these kinds of predictions one of the best predictions that you could ever look to is Ray kwell this is someone who's predicted with 84% accuracy a lot of the technological Feats that have been recently achieved and he pioneered pattern recognition Tech technology and many other things now in this recent interview on moonshots he actually gives his recent prediction and his prediction is one that apparently is now considered conservative and I think it's pretty crazy because this timeline isn't that far away I mean 5 years because he essentially says it's 2029 when we think about the Monumental amount of change coming in that time that's not a lot of time faster and faster each year so 2029 for AGI is uh conservative um so you can see here he actually says that 2029 is pretty conservative for AGI like if AGI happens in 5 years that is a conservative estimate even by someone who's managed to predict a lot of different things in the past and this is someone if you actually take a look at his prediction accuracy which they talk about in the interview documented about when you predict something is going to happen and within you know giving a leniency of like 12 to 20 4 months I think your accuracy rate is at 86% not too bad you can see that the accuracy is pretty surprising now if we do go back to Sam alman's blog post you can see that one of the things he also talks about is the fact that AI systems are going to get so good that they help us make better next Generation systems and make scientific progress across the board this is where you're talking about the self-improving AI across the board not like an individual system that self improves itself but an entire ecosystem that allows AI exponential growth for example if you have an AI system that is really effective it can write research papers it can Design Systems and software that can help speed up the next training cycle of course over time using the AI is going to get to faster and faster cycles and of course scientific progress is something that they're trying to consistently improve now like I said before Sam Alman isn't the only person talking about this in his blog post one of the individuals that actually talks about how much the future is going to increase in terms of intelligence is a CEO of anthropic the CEO of anthropic if you don't know who that is that's essentially the company that created Claude the chatbot that's currently challenging chat GPT in coding and other areas and he said essentially when we take a look at things and we account for absolutely the chips when we take a look at the exponential growth in other areas we're on a pretty smooth exponential we're on this smooth exponential the models are getting better and better over time um there's no one point where it's like oh the models weren't generally intelligent and now they are I just think you know like a human Child Learning and developing they're getting better and better smarter and smarter more and more knowledgeable and I don't think there will be any single point of note but I think there's a phenomenon happening where over time these models are getting better and better than even the best humans um I do think that if we continue to

### Segment 3 (10:00 - 13:00) [10:00]

increase the scale the amount of funding for the models if it goes to say 10 billion so now a model would cost what 100 million uh right now 100 million there are models in training today that are more like a billion right um I think if we go to 10 or 100 billion and I think that will happen in 2025 2026 maybe 2027 um and the algorithmic improvements continue a pace and the chip then I think there is in my mind a good chance that by that time we'll be able to get models that are better than most humans at most things so the point I'm trying to make there guys is that it isn't just one person stating this Sam mman Dario amod other industry leaders Riker as well they're all predicting that with the things that they're seeing and the amount of time that they spent with this technology they see this technology just improving at a ridiculous Pace now Dario amod actually talks about this in his blog post that I recently did an hourong video dissecting and going through everything but essentially he basically talks about how in terms of pure elence what he expects is that when he talks about powerful AI AGI is that it is smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across the most relevant Fields biology programming math engineering and writing Etc and this means which is a St complication that it can prove unsolved mathematical theorems write extremely good novels write difficult code based from scratch Etc that would be pretty incredible if it were to be true so this is a you know statement that should really drive home the point that I think in the next three years we're going to be receiving you know ridiculous levels of AI Improvement that most people can't fathom and of course you can see here he says that in addition to just being a smart thing you talk to it has all the interfaces available to a human working virtually including text audio video Mouse keyboard control and internet access and it can engage in any actions Communications or remote operations enabled by this interface and it does all of these costs again a skill exceeding that of most of the most capable humans in the world basically saying that look this system is going to be smarter than most people can imagine so when we look back at this statement that says look this thing is going to blow our minds do I think that this is a statement that is completely ridiculous no I don't because every single release from open AI has genuinely blown my mind when we look at opening eyes Sora that technology blew my mind when I saw it I was like whoa like I remember the entire world their minds were blown when I saw GPT 4 what it was able to do that demo my mind was blown then when I saw the GPT advanced voice mode my mind then was also blown as well so um this doesn't surprise me but I do wonder what open AI do you have in store for us next because these models are getting ridiculously smart so with that being said let me know what you guys think about the video and I'll see you in the next one