# Post AGI Economics : UBI About To Change Everything, CNN Lays Off 100 Staff, New Predictions On Jobs

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** TheAIGRID
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk
- **Дата:** 22.07.2024
- **Длительность:** 21:12
- **Просмотры:** 33,569

## Описание

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00:00 Introduction and AI's impact on work
00:42 ChatGPT's limitations and human advantage
01:31 Importance of AI awareness and adaptability 
02:07 AI's current impact on jobs and Amazon's robotics
03:37 Robot performance improvements and cost reduction
04:40 AI job displacement predictions
05:30 German approach to AI implementation in workplaces
06:49 US workplace AI implementation concerns
07:37 Unions and AI protections in Hollywood
08:27 Government's role in AI workforce transition
09:20 CNN layoffs and digital restructuring
09:44 Economist's perspective on AI and job market
11:52 Historical trends in work hours reduction
13:12 Predictions on AI's near-term impact on jobs
15:19 Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a solution to AI job displacement
16:29 AI's potential to create new roles
17:36 UBI study findings and societal benefits
18:30 Experts' views on AI's impact on the job market
19:31 OpenAI's levels of AI development
20:31 Potential impact of Level 5 AI on organizations
20:53 Future job prospects in an AI-dominated economy

Is there anything else you'd like me to modify or add to these timestamps?
Links From Todays Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeQ4PA_GTw8
https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1807929272491012440
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/29/ai-workers-layoffs-surveillance#:~:text=The%20McKinsey%20Global%20Institute%20estimates,300m%20jobs%20worldwide%20by%202030
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## Содержание

### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk) Introduction and AI's impact on work

and in today's video I want to show you guys some of the most important stories around the economy and AI now this first clip is from Alex hosi this was an interview he did with Shan Ferris and I think that this clip is one of the most refreshing ones I've seen because it's kind of emphasizing what I've been telling many people including some of the people in my group is that you're still always going to have some kind of Advantage because you're actually paying attention copyrighting AI like do you know me small business owners don't even know what chap GPT is zillions and even if they did that they don't know how to recognize good copy and so like right now chap GPT writes code guess what I don't know how to do write code guess what else I also don't know how to do see if the code it wrote was good I

### [0:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=42s) ChatGPT's limitations and human advantage

don't know and so what ends up happening in my opinion at least in the short term is that you can get a 10x increase in productivity because you can write at such a faster rate of code or copy or whatever because you have the perspective to make a judgment on how good it is right and you can make adjustments and you can tweak the promps and all that other stuff and so short term it's going to be people who know how to leverage AI to get more out of what they do long term nothing's going to matter anyways and so I think that sounds like an eventual an eventuality but what is that going to affect about today not a lot and just like any technology use it to your own Advantage so yeah this clip was truly refreshing it shows that whilst yes AI is something that does close the gap between individuals who know something and individuals who don't right now there currently is a problem a lot of people don't know how to actually use chat GPT to generate good code and if it does generate code you can't always

### [1:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=91s) Importance of AI awareness and adaptability

check it in certain industries you don't know if what it's generating is good or not because you're not someone that's in that industry and of course these are the nuances of AI that many people don't think about I just thought that this was something that was rather refreshing because there were all these ideas floating about how AI can do this and how it can do that but I always do think that humans who are competitive and who understand and who stay up front are going to be the ones benefiting the most rather than those not paying attention now I also came across this article that says we must start preparing the US Workforce for the effects of AI now and essentially it states as AI spreads rapidly across America's economy there's

### [2:07](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=127s) AI's current impact on jobs and Amazon's robotics

a lively debate about how it will transform the future of work what many people fail to realize is that AI has already changed millions of workers jobs often for the worse at Amazon some warehouse and delivery drivers complain that AI Bots have fired them without any human intervention whatsoever and before continuing to actually talk about this I do want to show you a recent clip and this one is actually from AR invest where they're talking about the recent price decreases as more robots are built and how Amazon is now adding more robots than human employees There's an opportunity for generalizable robotics uh that provides an opportunity for 24 trillion dollar in Revenue annually lower prices are stimulating demand for industrial robots and uh industrial robots have been dropping uh 50% for every cumulative doubling in production and so I think we're at a point now where the hardware costs are low enough um and continuing to flow that way as money flows in and people are uh designing for different types of Robotics increased performance is critical as well to driving adoption right it doesn't matter if you have a extremely cheap robot or automation solution if it can't do what you want and so I think you know this only goes up to 2022 and we've certainly had a handful of breakthroughs in AI since then but just in the years from 2015 to 2022 uh robot performance improved 33-fold over those S years and this is

### [3:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=217s) Robot performance improvements and cost reduction

looking at items picked and placed per hour so grabbing something out of a bin placing it somewhere else uh and you can see that human performance is roughly 400 items per hour uh and now there are robots out there that can pick a th000 items per hour the other important thing uh is that it's already better than humans and it's unclear where the constraint is so we have robots that are becoming far more performant they're coming down in cost what does that mean well it means that many companies are likely to deploy more robots than humans and so you can look here um this is Amazon number of robots and employees and you can see that between 2022 and 2023 they certainly added more robots than employees and the statement that Amazon actually added more robots than employees is pretty crazy when you think about it I think that yes Amazon are lead leading the way in terms of Robotics but I don't think that they're going to be the last ones doing so as the robot Revolution continues to evolve so as this article continues it continues to go on to state that and

### [4:40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=280s) AI job displacement predictions

then there are the forecasts that AI will rpe out a million so as this article continues it says and then there are the forecasts that AI will wipe out millions of jobs the McKenzie Global Institute estimates that by 2030 tasks that account for 30% of the hours now worked across the us could be automated and that AI will push 12 million American workers out of their jobs Goldman Sachs predicts that AI will disrupt about 300 million jobs worldwide by 2030 and I don't think that those estimates are wrong in the slightest as someone who's been paying attention to both sides of the coin now of course you can see here C suet Executives can't wait to deploy more AI into their offices warehouse and factories but many workers white colar and blue color alike worry that AI will mean only bad news for them more stress surveillance speed ups and more layout

### [5:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=330s) German approach to AI implementation in workplaces

and it doesn't have to be out that rate what's interesting is that in Germany and several other European countries workers have a voice in how their employees roll out and use AI German law actually requires that companies notify their Works councils which are their worker management committees that exist in most German workplaces in advance about any plans to introduce AI those councils often then discuss how to use AI typically with an eye to having it complement workers and make them more productive Ive instead of replacing and if you remember in the recent video where I actually spoke about how regulation in certain countries is holding certain countries back it seems that regulation in certain EU Nations here seems to be quite effective for the workers and I do wonder if any new laws like this might actually start popping up and if people might start fighting for these things to be real because of course the AI development is moving at a continually rapid pace and maybe these things might start to come to fruition after people see demos of GPT 5 a Cornell University expert on AI and work told me that the German model with its works councils and strong unions leads to less employee resistance to AI smoother roll outs of AI related Technologies and increase productivity that benefits companies and workers alike but in the United States a country

### [6:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=409s) US workplace AI implementation concerns

where workplace decisions are typically topped down with employees having little or no input workers feel like victims and guinea pigs when it comes to and indeed many workers don't even know when their employees are using AI to surveil them or to even speed up their jobs for example it even dives into how this has already happened to where some people have actually fought back it talks about how at unionized workplaces but not non-union ones employees have a right to not only negotiate about AI when it substantially affects working conditions but also to push for protections against some of ai's worst effects if you remember Hollywood actually won Hollywood's writers and actors unions won important predictions on AI in the negotiations that settled their lengthy strikes last year that was

### [7:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=457s) Unions and AI protections in Hollywood

something that I was pretty surprised by and like I said before as many people are stating that these tools are going to destroy Hollywood or they're going to infiltrate them do not forget that humans can always play a role in determining how these Technologies are implemented some economists warn that if corporations can roll out AI with little input from workers then AI will increase production and profits for corporations with few or any gains for the workers all while increasing the nation's overall income inequality workers will suffer from speed up stress and layoffs and Society at large may have to finance tens of billions of dollars in unemployment insurance health coverage and perhaps food and rent assistance for many who lose their jobs to Ai and of course to minimize the ai's negative effects of America's 160 million workers there are many things that the government labor and businesses should do governments should require companies

### [8:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=507s) Government's role in AI workforce transition

to notify their workers when they're using AI tools to Monitor and I'm wondering if there's going to be some kind of law where companies may have to notify their workers that they are going to be replaced of course you do have to give your employees like a two-e notice but I'm wondering if there is going to be something in the future with the proliferation of AI that allows people to recover from being suddenly laid off there was also CNN to lay off 100 staffers as it preps major revamp of digital efforts layoffs will once again hit CNN as the cable news channel reorganizes it its push into to expand into digital businesses the CNN CEO Mark Thompson outlined his digital Vision in a lengthy memo to staff on Wednesday morning announcing plans to build a flurry of digital products including a subscription before the end of the year and plans to other paid offerings built around lifestyle journalism and a strategic push into artificial intelligence in his note he said that

### [9:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=560s) CNN layoffs and digital restructuring

about a 100 roles will be cut which is just sigh of 3% of CNN's Workforce there was also this podcast that I did actually miss this one was released last year but it was rather important because it contained an interview with Economist so there was an interview that was released last year but I want to include certain points from this because it touches upon certain points and the

### [9:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=584s) Economist's perspective on AI and job market

person speaking Michael Webb is of Google Deep Mind and is an economist from Stanford University he actually talks about whether AI will soon cause job loss higher incomes inequality or the opposite and I think it's one of the most insightful interviews but it only has 300 views whether that comes in hundred years time whether it comes in 10 years time so I think there's a few really important things here so we generally are going around saying gosh what have it automated you know 90% of cognitive tasks big emphasis say on the word cognitive many tasks in the economy are not cognitive tasks and back to the old sort of thing we've been discussing all the way through as to like when you automate some kind of thing suddenly like all the incentives go towards how do you make more value out of the stuff that is left that is not automated um or that you know hum humans can now do because they've been freed up and they can do something else now um and I think there are many many things that are not cognitive um that you know there'll be huge amounts of demand for humans to do does that mean like most people are going to be doing a bunch of physical tasks I guess like moving boxes cuz I guess that sounds pretty strange to me even though uh your conclusion might mean like it's not that we'll have loads of unemployment but it might be that we're like most people are just doing a bunch of physical labor is that what it points at so by physical labor it would be weird right if we ended up sort of lifting boxes and warehouses I don't think that's where we're going to go um but and there's things which we'll get on to Beyond physical labor but within physical labor like caregiving is a physical task right like if you are um looking after an old person who needs care like you have to be physically present and you have to help them do all kinds of stuff like that's what you're there for that's a physical job and there is going to be like so much demand for that kind of work going forward and I don't forget like most of us spend you know 18 25 whatever years in education before we even start working and then people seem to be living longer and retiring earlier and earlier so you're actually only working for you know 30 40 years out of a you know 80-year time lifespan right and then there's like

### [11:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=712s) Historical trends in work hours reduction

half of those people maybe are you know they're not engaged in the foral labor force because um they're looking after Young children um or you know they're staying at home or whatever it is right or they're they're rich and retired or they retired really early or they just kind of you know they're working not many hours a week right so it seems like everyone these days is switching to four day weeks um and it you know seem seems great right and in the long sort of history of this it's amazing what's happened in terms of hours minor digression qu be but like in 1870 the average hours of work someone yeah for a working person in America uh was 70 hours per week right it was like a grueling life you were like working like in factories whatever like you were made to work really really hard right today it's 35 hours a week so we've literally seen a harving of those who are full-time employed a Haring of the hours per week right um just and more recently in the UK just in the last kind of 30-year period the UK has seen the decline of 20% in hours worked kind of per worker like excluding those who are retired whatever like among those who are working right so there there's ever further declines in sort of worked because people sort of choose to spend some of their extra wealth on like working fewer hours and this is where Michael Webb actually talks about his prediction for the next couple of years basically stating that aren't going to be as impactful as many people might think and I'm not

### [13:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=792s) Predictions on AI's near-term impact on jobs

going to say I completely disagree with this but I do think that you know economical models exist for a reason for example adoption cycles and you know llms are going to be a technology that might be slowly to adopt it might be even quicker to adopt I mean when you think about it chat GPT was the fastest app to grow to 100 million users so I mean I'm wondering if this time is different but it's still a valid perspective that he had is the story that they have in mind like uh like yes there will be some adoption um but it's not going to like double or triple anyone's productivity automate away so many jobs that like I don't know there's like a 150% increase in the like labor available to do more work um is it just does it assume that like the predictions about what AI could would plausibly do in terms of boosting these kinds of um labor inputs they just think they're overblown I think a sort of you know charitable version is the think back to 1960 and computers the first computers are being invented and the inventors of the computer say look this can do anything right you know we all these humans doing loads of jobs involving you know tabulating data and you know storing retrieving manipulating numbers and addresses and databases and all those kind of stuffff and like look this computer can do all of that like just today right and you initially you had um the US Secretary of Labor uh Willard wz in 1963 giving a big speech saying uh we're going to have you know we are quickly about to be throwing all these people under the human slag heat because of automation from computers right and like everyone then I think they were correct in that like yes a huge fraction of the economy was in fact this clerical work could be done by computers and computers were becoming along right then and there the fact is though that it took you know 50 years for that to happen um for all the reasons that we talked about so I think just think that's you know the same sort of thing is going to happen this time it'll you know big impacts but it'll be spel over a long time 10 years is not very long time there was also this article what was released very recently and it talks about how Ubi is probably about to transform Society it talks about how the

### [15:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=919s) Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a solution to AI job displacement

concept of guaranteed income is gaining traction as a solution to the impact of AI and could encourage more rewarding and socially valuable work now it details how one woman found out she had been randomly selected to participate in the income pilot scheme and she couldn't believe her luck and in return for a guaranteed salary of over $11,200 a month from the Irish government all she had to do was fill out a questionnaire about her wellbeing how he spends her time and this is crazy because it's going on right now and it she'll receive it until September 2025 and apparently she is giving up temping and focusing instead on her artwork the article continues to talk about how today as AI learns from Collective and intellectual creative output of humans and uses this to dispossess workers of their livelihood the idea of Ubi is gaining additional traction it also talks about how Elon Musk said last year before speculating there will come a point to when no job is needed and you can have one if you want personal satisfaction but AI will largely do everything a bold claim but I think maybe in 70 years that might be true in fact considering the rate of exponential development it's probably a lot earlier than that just

### [16:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=989s) AI's potential to create new roles

take the 70 years and just throw than the B I don't know where that came from there is also this counterargument and this is something that I've actually also been exploring which is the new roles that AI has been creating the counterargument is that although AI could replace a range of jobs it could also create new roles including oversight of AI decision-making known as human in the loop yet for many workers the advance of AI continues to be alarming in March after analyzing 22,000 tasks in the economy covering every type of job a model created by the institute for public policy research predicted that 59% of tasks currently done by humans particularly women and young people could be affected by AI in the next 3 to 5 years in the worst case scenario this would trigger a jobs apocalypse where 8 million people lose their jobs in the UK alone and of course UB would provide a vital safety net because under capitalism you need that money to survive and one of the findings from this Ubi study of a 2020 study conducted by University researchers in the Netherlands found that unemployed individ uals who were previously receiving benefits increased their participation in the labor market after they were given a basic income for 3

### [17:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=1056s) UBI study findings and societal benefits

years rather than opting for insecure work taking any job they could get they were more likely to find and accept long-term well-paid work and they also took on more work of course someone believes that if Ubi was available people would do more creative and more charitable work the kind of work that is now very difficult to make an income from I think is the kind of work that people would move into in dros and that would be a net positive for society and I think right here this is one of the most important points the particularly true for care work and parenting people shouldn't be punished for making these choices socially and economically that work is actually valuable but at the moment it's not economically valuable there are also two more points here that I do want to cover darl West the author of the future of work AI robots and automation says that policy Innovations were needed before to help people transition from an agrarian to an industrial economy and they are going to be needed today as we transition into the AI economy and there's a risk that

### [18:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=1110s) Experts' views on AI's impact on the job market

AI is going to take a lot of jobs a basic income could very well help navigate that situation and ai's impact will be actually far-reaching affecting blue color and white color jobs it's not just going to be entry-level people who are effective and so we need to think about what this means for the economy what it means for society as a whole what are people going to do if AI take the majority share of the available jobs and N Watson a futurist who focuses on AI ethics has a more pessimistic View she believes that we are witnessing the dawn of AI company corporate environments where very few if any humans are employed at all Instead at these companies lots of different AI subpersonalities will work independently on different tasks occasionally hiring humans for different bits and pieces of work now whilst that might have been a pessimistic view I want you guys to take a look at this one of the levels that open AI is focusing on is level five this is how they're tracking their progress in terms of AI development and you can see that currently we're at level one we we're about to get to level

### [19:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=1171s) OpenAI's levels of AI development

two and you can see that level five is organizations and that's AI that can do the work of an organization what happens to the economy when we get to level five a very interesting precedent will be made one that many people can't even fathom SL predict the article continues to talk about how AI companies have the potential to be enormously more efficient than human businesses driving almost everyone else out of business apart from a small selection of traditional old businesses that's somehow sticking there because the traditional methods are appreciated I think most people don't truly understand how a level five AI system could actually operate if an AI system can truly do the work of an organization that is going to be absolutely insane because humans can work at Best for about 4 hours and when I say 4 hours I mean if you're doing focused work on a computer I say 4 hours not that you're at the computer for 4 hours I mean if you aggregate every actual moment that you are actively working it's about 4 hours before your brain just like you know you become less focused and stuff like that um and that doesn't mean that

### [20:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=1231s) Potential impact of Level 5 AI on organizations

humans are extremely inefficient the point I'm trying to make is that an AI is going to be 100% for 24 hours and it's going to be able to continuously work on whatever you want it to which is a remarkable level of productivity that I don't even know what the economy is going to look like after that or how you would be able to compete with a business that is able to work that effect there

### [20:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfqvIe0mkEk&t=1253s) Future job prospects in an AI-dominated economy

are arguments that only jobs that require human interaction like hospital chaplains or care workers that involve complex physical tasks like plasters plumbers and hairdresses would need to be done by humans in the future as a result she thinks that it could be AI companies not governments that could end up paying people the basic income

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*Источник: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/14175*