# The End of Work? AGI Will Make UBI a Necessity (Universal Basic Income)

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** TheAIGRID
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NshnEP58HU
- **Дата:** 11.05.2024
- **Длительность:** 21:43
- **Просмотры:** 35,860
- **Источник:** https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/14329

## Описание

The End of Work? AGI Will Make UBI a Necessity (Universal Basic Income)

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## Транскрипт

### Intro []

so with the rise of AGI there has been a lot of discussion with universal basic income and the potential need for a universal basic income now if you don't know what Universal basic income is it's basically a social welfare policy that involves providing all citizens or residents of a country with a regular unconditional cash payment from the government regardless of their income or employment status and there are several key features of Ubi so essentially it's a regular cash payment which is probably monthly or annual to all individuals in a community or a country and it's always paid without any conditions or requirements like means testing work requirements or other eligibility criteria it is paid to individuals rather than households it is intended to provide a minimum income flaw or Baseline to cover basic needs it is paid in addition to any other income from employment or other sources and it is universal meaning it is provided to anyone in the given population not just targeted groups now that is a quick definition of Ubi so it can set the tone for what to understand what we are going to talk about going forward and Ubi is something that is going to be increasingly more discussed as automation becomes more rampant now the reason I've decided to discuss AI is because something that is constant and something that you may have not realized

### OpenAI [1:28]

is that an Open ai's document where they are accepting investment they State a few things and there's one sentence or I guess you could say three words that really kind of stood out to me the first time I read this and this is a suitable video for me to add this so they say that investing in open eye is a high-risk investment investors could lose their capital and not see any return it's wise to see any investment in open eye as the spirit of a donation with the understanding that it may be difficult and here's where we get to the interesting part it says it may difficult to know what role money will play in a post AGI world so something that we've seen time and time again is that the majority of AI leaders like people like Demis aabis people like Sam Alman have clearly stated that it's quite difficult to understand what role money is going to play in a post AGI world because if AGI is what it says it is it means that the cost of Labor is going to drop to zero which means that you know we run on a labor economy this is going to be a post AGI World which means that we move into a post AGI slost labor economy which means things are very different and the reason this is going to be very different is because humans have always deived their value from their kind of Labor and it's basically just the basis of capitalism you do something you get paid for it if you are a nurse you help patients you get paid if you're a doctor you diagnose people coder you code you get paid depending on your cognitive ability essentially if you're cognitive labor you know if you're a Tradesman it's usually physical labor but the point is that if you have some kind of Labor that's how you have your economic value but it's quite difficult to understand how money works because we're going to be moving into a post AGI world so the thing is that I would argue that because we're moving towards AGI and some would argue that open a already internally achieved it just not with the skill some sort of Ubi

### Job Losses [3:28]

is going to be needed because the job losses are going to happen sooner or later we know that there are Advanced AI systems coming and we know that these Advanced AI systems are always going to displace workers unfortunately but at least we know this now which means that there in future we do know that there's going to be disproportionately continuing levels of people that find themselves without jobs and careers as these kinds of tools get released and the problem with current AI Trends is that the jobs aren't replacing the ones that are lost which means that increasingly we're seeing more people out of a job now this means that Ubi is probably in the future going to be needed now it might not be needed right now some people might find you at work they might transition to other careers but when we do have agentic services in 2027 2028 and we have a real ramp up in terms of technology and companies using these Services rather than actually employing people I would argue that yes some sort of Ubi might be needed and there's going to be a wider increase and a wider demand for this because a lot of people who have lost their jobs might not be able to find new ones and of

### Elon Musk [4:43]

course Elon Musk also Champions this claim he says it's hard to say exactly what that moment is but there will come a point where no job is needed mus continued speaking alongside British prime minister Ry sunak you can have a job if you wanted to have a job personal satisfaction but the AI would be able to do everything and whilst that does seem like sci-fi it isn't completely sci-fi because it is completely possible with the future advancement in AI that could lead to an incredible level of AI ability where it could really just do absolutely anything which means that we're going to be in an incredible position where the economy no longer runs on our labor and essentially we're all going to be out of work now of course I think that AI could be doing everything and I'm going to be making another video not sure if it's released yet on why I think the flip side is also very important on what human made jobs will be there but I do think that you know this is going to be the future Trend and I think it's important to pay attention to this so I think one of the key reasons that Ubi is going to be needed is because it's going

### Poverty [5:51]

to need to eradicate poverty okay and there are two key Concepts to this okay I don't think that you know and I'm not arguing for communism or anything like that but I do see how some people live and it is honestly atrocious how some people are left to fall through the cracks I've seen some people in certain situations that have literally just been let down by society and it truly is astonishing to how people can fall through the cracks to no fault of their own they're just bored in a bad neighborhood their family is just like already on drugs in and out of the system they're literally care and they've never really had a good shot at life because their entire environment has of course you know placed them in unfortunate circumstances and whilst yes these are Fringe cases I think that if we're moving this fast in society I don't think we should allow certain people to fall through the cracks there should definitely be some kind of you know social safety nets to at least share the abundance that is going to be there now of course some people could argue that yes you need to pull yourself up by the bootstraps but environment plays a lot into to how our future success is impacted more than you do think and there is even this concept

### Working Poor [7:05]

where people are actually actively working but they're still trapped in a cycle of poverty so this is something that I can completely empathize with because I do not come from a wealthy background at all however I did start a business a couple of years ago and I'm now doing okay for myself I'm not in poverty anymore but it is something that I realize that not everyone is able to escape due to several issues that like I said before are no fault of their own and this is going to be further exacerbated due to AGI and due to automation when people are going not to be able to anymore get back into certain careers and industries that they were once seniors in so essentially this person you could see they were evicted and the Working Poor is a concept of people who are working but are still poor so I'm going to show you guys this article cuz it is truly kind of heartbreaking but I think we're going to see more and more of these stories that are going to lead us more and more towards the conversation of Ubi so

### Unemployment Benefits [8:02]

essentially this person talks about something that I guarantee most people are experiencing and it's the rising cost of food transport and utilities means that the meager amount of money I've been able to stretch to cover my Necessities isn't covering them anymore so this one was truly it was truly a tough read Because I can completely understand how this person was doing so essentially 16 years ago this person was on their protest to about teaching award negotiations and then they unfortunately broke their leg the teachers union ended up paying their wage and then you know she was having an okay life but her ill health forced her to return to her home country and then she applied to many different jobs and wasn't able to get anything and was stuck on unemployment benefits and the problem is that there are also mental health issues too that nobody talks about you know she says there are many issues that have chipped away at my sense of self-worth and made my life even harder because a lot of people do describe people that are on unemployment benefits as being lazy people say they're just scaming off taxpayers money when that couldn't be further from the case a lot of the times these people do have to apply for certain jobs every week to be even qualified for those benefits and a lot of the times they are just unable to gain work because their background just isn't sufficient for them to get a new job you can see that this person said my job provider worsen my depression and comments on social media about lazy dull budgers reduce my self-esteem and increase my resentment and anger and now the increasing rising cost of food transport and utilities means that the me amount of money they've been given just you know hasn't covered their situation and this is something that I think is going to continue right now it isn't something that is that bad because we do have an economy that you know shifts and it rotates and it evolves but what happens when we start to see large portions of the economy being automated by these kinds of systems where they are adopted I think we're going to see more and more people start to fall through the Cs and we're going to start to see these kinds of things because this isn't going to be good for the economy at all if large parts of the economy are automated we're definitely going to need to use Ubi because we won't have a large portion of the economy working so they're going to need to have that money to be able to buy goods and services to keep the economy going around now one of the problems with Ubi is of course inflation this is something that has

### Inflation [10:21]

been discussed before but I guess we could relate this to something that happened recently but first i'm going to talk about inflation so the problem is that Ubi could lead to inflation through several mechanisms and if you don't understand what inflation is it's basically if you print more of the money becomes less valuable okay just think of it simple supply and demand if there's more something it's simply less valuable so when people receive the Ubi payments their purchasing power increases lead to leading to higher consumption which is good and the surgeon in demand can out Shi the supply of goods and services which is going to result in demand P inflation where prices rise because the demand is greater than Supply so we have essentially demandable inflation which is due to you know Ubi then of course we have Labor Supply reduction so if the Ubi payments are sufficient to cover basic living expenses some individuals might choose to work less or not at all and this could lead to even more labor shortages in certain sectors particularly low wages jobs and then employers may have to then increase wages to attract workers leading to higher production costs which are often passed on to customers in the form of higher prices and of course you know currency depreciation financing Ubi could involve large scale government borrowing or printing of money which we saw recently and if this is not offset by spending cuts or increased taxes this is going to lead to an devaluation of the currency causing imported goods to be more expensive thereby contributing towards inflation and there are many different more things but we did see

### Currency Financing [11:50]

this during covid with the stimulus checks and basically in 2020 the cares act in March 2020 provided a one-time economic impairment payment of up to $1,200 per adult and $500 per child qualifying under 17 and this was something that helped out but the problem is that they printed so much money that the dollar some people are arguing it's now worthless and that's what's contributing to this cost of living crisis while the wages are stagnating um and whilst yes it is good you kind of have to manage everything because everything affects everything in the economy and I'm not going to say I'm going to do a better job than the US government but um inflation is is not great now essentially of course there's inflation which could threaten how Ubi is implemented but I think there is also the funding for Ubi because some people are talk about okay if we don't want to you know print money how on Earth are we going to fund it so some people are

### Robo Tax [12:43]

arguing that once these giant companies manage to capture all of the world's economic value or at least 10 to 5 to 3% of the world's economic value which is trillions and trillions of dollars those could be used to pay for it so it says companies like open AI could make Unthinkable profits from successful AI will they share the wealth so this is something that I've spoken about before but essentially if you have a company that doesn't really use any people and everyone kind of needs that company then some people are saying that there's going to be a robo tax in which effectively those taxes are redistributed to the economies where it is being used the most and then that's how those economies can benefit from it now I think there's also another way and I do think that WiFi profits are pretty good but I would argue that companies are probably going to fight this to the death a problem with a robo taxing is that companies already evade taxes in crazy ways some of the biggest corporations literally don't pay any tax they've got companies in the Cayman Islands Ireland Apple has all of this Shady stuff that they do so I think whilst yes this is very I guess you could say idealistic it largely I don't think it's going to work because companies want to give money back to their investors and they want to just keep shooting up their stock price so they can make their profits even higher so if they can find any kind of loophole to avoid this I can guarantee you they're going to completely do this and they're going to avoid that Robo tax okay so then we have

### Programmable Money [14:12]

of course here programmable money and I would argue that this is probably the most likely scenario in which Ubi is going to happen however this isn't going to be as good as you think now I'm not stating any conspiracy theories or anything like that because of course nobody knows what the future is going to be like but CBD can be good and they can be bad because these essentially crypto that are issued by a central bank so the Federal Reserve can give you money now anyone can use crypto anyone knows what crypto is it's just like money it's just like on the blockchain but the problem is that programmable money can come with certain restrictions for example I'm not stating that this is what they're going to do but it is possible in the future because it's programmable and they're able to do this and I'm going to explain why this is how Ubi is probably going to be implemented remember before how we spoke about how Ubi and inflation um these things kind of go hand in hand and that you know there's all this you know labor Supply reduction cost pull inflation all these kind of you know cost push inflation um currency depreciation all of these kind of things which aren't good that could kind of be offset by programming the cbdc so what they could have is they could have incentives to get people to spend more so they could have you know $1,000 or $500 or $200 a week that expires and can only be spent in certain areas and the reason that I think this is probably going to happen is because if the government wants people to spend more money in a certain area they could literally just program the money so that it literally is spent in that area and I know whilst that does sound crazy if you do research on it you can see that programmable money programmable cbdcs are likely going to be coming in the future the Federal Reserve is working on them all of the major companies and major world economies are going to be working on them and I think that's fundamentally going to change our economy in the next 20 years because if we do need Ubi it's going to be easily available you're going to be able to easily onboard people there's of course going to be a digital ID rolling out sometime in the future and if you're able to program the money you're able to effectively distributed equally and you're able to understand exactly where it goes so I think that this is probably going to be how it's invested but of course this does have its stipulations because programming money I guess you could say there's an element of Freedom that isn't there because if the government can control exactly how you spend that money then I guess they could you know control how certain companies benefit what industries are booming what industries aren't I mean there's all sorts of different things going on there but I do think that this is definitely going to be one of the ways that Ubi is probably going to be distributed now I would also argue that Ubi could not happen because

### Governments Dont Always Look After You [16:50]

sometimes governments don't always look after you and many people do fall through the cracks and the problem is that with governments is that they basically just do the bare minimum you know some countries you know what we often see is that we see that the rich are living in these you know luxury highrises whilst you know not far often we see that there are homeless people nearby it's this very almost dystopian kind of city and society that we're already living in and I mean how crazy is it going to look in the future when this situation gets even worse are there going to be people that are just left behind because the government didn't create a social safety init and the one that they did create just wasn't enough and so some people have just been left behind I mean it's already happening now what's to say it's not going to get even worse so I've put here that governments don't always look after you because they literally don't they literally just do the bare minimum and we know that this capitalist Society can be very very unforgiving and the problem is that

### Middle Class Getting Crushed [17:49]

an increasing Trend that we're seeing is that the middle class is currently getting crushed an increasing trend is that we've seen that the middle class is not making as much money and the upper income is just steadily increasing and the lower incomes haven't changed at all so it's important to pay attention to these Trends and I think a large scenario of Ubi reason why it's probably going to happen is because the wealth

### Wealth Gap Widening [18:15]

Gap is likely to widen okay if we think about how Society is right now things are not too bad okay but here's why things could get worse if we take a look at how Society is right now I mean you probably should have Sam here and Microsoft here but if we look at who owns the current AI infrastructure who owns the tech and who is set to benefit the most from AI you know and AGI it's the big Tech players okay once everything is automated you have to understand humans lose their economical value and they don't really have as much agency which means that these billionaires are going to be capturing the majority of the economical value which means that their net worths are probably going to Skyrocket exponentially and the average person They Don't Really own AI which means that they can't profit from it or benefit from it as much as these guys can now I'm not hating on them of course they've created a company they benefit this is the system that we exist in but what this means is that the wealth Gap just simply widens and then there's that concentration of power so that is going to be something that of course discussed with Ubi and when you have only a handful of people that have billions or even trillions of dollars it argues that is there going to be a really real need for Ubi because the problem and the need for Ubi is as well is as I've said as these guys own the AI and as AGI is going to be pretty much able to do anything most people won't have a job as Elon Musk said the problem

### Social Mobility [19:40]

with that is that there won't be any social Mobility whilst yes some careers will still exist you'll still be able to improve think about it like this okay so right now if you want to improve your life you can study hard you can get better grades you can get to a better University you can get a better job you can you know make yourself better in the interviews you can get better experience but the problem is that in the future an AGI level system will likely surpass you in all categories it will be faster than you it can work for 24 hours it can remember everything and it can do anything you can do on a computer but better so you have to ask yourself how in that digital world can you increase your income in a way that you can surpass a company needing you because previously companies need people in order to increase their company's value but what happens when companies no longer need people they just need an AGI system it's going to be pretty hard to beat out an AGI system especially when it's cheaper than you can run for 24 hours doesn't need sick pay isn't going to complain there's going to be no lawsuits I mean it's going to be pretty incredible in a few years okay and I think this probably will happen in the next 15 years but how do you improve and how do you gain economic agency in this Society that's why a lot of people as stating that yes you're going to need some AGI because if there's no economic agency then there's literally no way for you to earn an income and I do think there will be some industries of course there's going to be new Industries and stuff like that but I think that it's going to be a lot harder than it is now so there's definitely going to be some policies and stuff that will need to be implemented because as the trends we've seen Ubi is something that I think is almost certainly going to be needed because we're moving towards a post AGI world and that means the current economic landscape is about to change and shift in a way we haven't seen before so what are your opinions on Ubi I think it's almost necessary but I think that if it isn't done right it could definitely be a dystopia unfortunately