# Sam Altman STUNS Everyone With GPT-5 Statement (GPT-5 Capilibites + ASI)

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** TheAIGRID
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Mca6eN81Is
- **Дата:** 14.02.2024
- **Длительность:** 33:25
- **Просмотры:** 212,936
- **Источник:** https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/14522

## Описание

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Links From Todays Video:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.03409.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15UZCAr3shU&t=787s&pp=ygUWU0FNIEFMVE1BTiBMSVZFIFJVVEVSUw%3D%3D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFStx-FptMc&pp=ygURTU8gR0FXREFUIEJJTExJT04%3D
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html

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## Транскрипт

### Intro []

so there was a recent Sam Alman interview in which he stated that GPT 5 is a bigger deal than it sounds and in this video I'm going to show you guys exactly why because so many people missed the real reason he said that and let's dive into the first clip and then I'll show you all why this is absolutely incredible like if I'm excited about gt55 what should I be excited about I I was sort of laughing a little bit because this is going to sound like a annoying answer but I think it is the important part it's going to be smarter there are all of these other things you know we can talk about it'll be better at these kind of tasks it'll be multimodal it'll be faster what you know who knows what the thing that I think really matters is it's going to be smarter and this is a bigger deal than it sounds right cuz the what makes these models so magical is that they're General um and so if it's a little bit better smarter that means it's a little bit better at everything and the thing that I think is most exciting is it's not like this model is going to get a little better at this task and not really better at these or you know it's not that it's because we're going to make the model smarter it's going to be better at everything across the board this is a bigger deal than it sounds models so magical is that they're General so now that you've heard

### Why is it 10 better [1:11]

that clip from Sam one why is it that being a 10% better llm or AI system than the previous one is going to be a vast Improvement across all domains and this is something that at first I thought maybe it's just an exaggeration but trust me guys if we do take a back step on where we've gone on AI development GPT 5 will be another huge jump so one of the things you have to remember is that do you remember ladies and gentlemen GPT 3. 5 and if you take a look

### GPT 35 vs GPT 4 [1:44]

at the comparisons in the benchmarks from GPT 3. 5 to GPT 4 you can see that the increase is definitely substantial now one could argue that of course the benchmarks in blue for gbt 3. 5 and the Green in GPT 4 mean that there isn't much room for GPT 4 to increase but I really disagree because if GPT 5 is even 10% better across the board this is going to Mark a huge milestone in terms of capabilities and let me show you why this is going to have a greater impact than you think number one is the compounding Improvement whilst 10% might

### Compounding Improvement [2:23]

sound modest in llms this Improvement actually applies across a massive range of capabilities such as text generation translation summarization reasoning and much more and these small gains combin in powerful ways and think of it as an analogy okay so if you're a 10% Improvement in athletic aspects if you run faster and jump higher and move more quickly these actually revolutionize your overall performance and it's going to do the same in AI now one of the things that this 10% Improvement could be doing you know just for example as a benchmark that it could be is the fact that this system will have a ridiculous

### Increased Reliability [3:02]

level of increased reliability so if the model is let's say it's 10 to 20% smarter across everything that means it's going to be increasingly reliable which then means that it's going to open the door for AI applications in more critical areas such as Healthcare where AI could assist in diagnosis or treatment recommendations in addition this could also be legal services where it might help with case analysis and safety critical systems like autonomous driving that's why guys this is going to be absolutely incredible increased reliability is one of the fundamental reasons that AI systems haven't gone mainstream and that's because for many of the things that we currently do there is a very stringent safety procedure for many of these different Industries for example in healthcare for example in driving you need to pass a range of different tests and if gb5 is a little bit smarter across many different domains this would make it increasingly more reliable which could lead to the application of many different Industries worldwide which is why Sam outman is basically saying that guys if this system is really reliable that is going to be a very big deal so now do you remember guys this Amy system which was produced by The Talented team at Google this essentially what you're looking at here is a graph of an AI system that actually Di diagnoses people and this shows us that a ridiculously reliable system is able to consistently outperform clinicians by itself and this is the thing guys if we get something that is increasingly more reliable and let's say it's around 99% or 98% what do you think happens to the healthcare industry where AI wasn't used before it's going to impact many different things and we've already seen these preliminary tests showcase just how crazy these AI systems are and what do

### AI in Autonomous Driving [5:01]

you also think about this ladies and gentlemen increased reliability is going to affect autonomous driving if it is really reliable what you're looking at is an excerpt from a research paper in which they tried to Benchmark GPT for Visions capabilities against autonomous driving scenes they essentially fed the system screenshots from a dash cam and of course they tried to see exactly what gbt 4 vision would do if it was in control of the car and the majority of the time it got the situation correct it did struggle with nighttime scenes but imagine if GPT 5 Vision scenes does it with 99. 9% accuracy or 98% accuracy that is going to be something that really Takes the Cake in terms of what we think these AI systems can do because that can be applied to autonomous driving as a mini AGI system which even Elon Musk says you do really need to be able to control and make autonomous driving very effective and that is why I do think this is a much bigger deal than people are realizing in addition there's also increased creativity which is what we've seen from the likes of darly 3 and so now this is

### IQ Graph [6:14]

the part of the video that I really want to show you guys why GPT 5 is probably going to shock you guys and why it's really going to take the World by storm so this what you're looking at is an IQ graph so in humans intelligence is often measured using the IQ intelligence quota scale and this scale is designed to be a normal distribution with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15 for most tests and the scale itself is not exponential it is linear where each point represents the same incremental increase measured in intelligence however and this is where things start to get interesting just hear me out the impact differences in IQ can appear exponential in certain context such as the ability to solve complex problems academic achievement or create Innovation but what IQ is GPT 4 GPT 4's

### Why is this crazy [7:06]

IQ is 155 that's 25 points above genius and 5 Points above the IQ of the average Noble Laurette now why is this crazy because think about it like this if gbt 4's IQ is 155 GPT 5's IQ is likely going to be a decent amount better but the thing is that we do know that once your IQ begins to increase on the upper end of the scale what you're able to do somewhat increases exponentially in terms of the output for example if we look at some of the most talented Minds in our times like Albert Einstein his IQ was 160 which was ridiculously high and this guy literally changed the world he revolutionized physics and helped towards technological innovations and his theory of relativity was crucial for the Precision of GPS technology and without the corrections for the differences in time as predicted by general relativity due to the satellite speed and the weaker gravitational field at their attitude GPS systems would actually be inaccurate affecting navigation technology and military operations globally and this is the clip

### The clip you need to watch [8:14]

that you guys need to watch okay because this is by someone who used to work at Google his name is Mo goat and I find all of his interviews very fascinating but this clip shows us why systems like GPT 5 are a much Bigg deal than you think even if they're a small incremental jump because whilst it might be in terms of the intelligence the abilities are going to be exponential 4 is 10x smarter than 3. 5 right and Chad GPT 4 is estimated to have an IQ of 155 it outsmarts most of us you know it passed the bar exam it you know it has a um you know it can it can become a PhD in medicine it can become this and that from the top that we call Knowledge uh it seems to outsmart most of us definitely outsmarts me Einstein was 160 I think IQ or 190 it doesn't matter really I think it was he was 160 155 is Chad gp4 if CAD GPT 5 doubles once right that's twice as smart as Ein we're now getting into that zone of not being able to comprehend what they're thinking about not let alone understanding it we we wouldn't understand what it is that they're thinking about let alone understand uh you know what's within it when they explain it to us that clip right there is pretty incredible because it goes to show that you know with these increases and these jumps in intelligence in these systems we truly aren't going to understand what's going on and there's a second part of this where he even talks about the fact that you could think of it like this okay so let's say for example you have a dog that created a human and these humans that they've created are really good because we take care of dogs we really love them but at the same time these dogs have no idea that we have Society we have all these rules and regulations and we are on podcast discussing things but of course we do serve the purpose and the point is that really intelligent systems are going to be that much more intelligent that we might not comprehend certain things because if um you asked um you know a um a person with an IQ of 110 let's say to comprehend what a person of an IQ of 170 is talking about uh it becomes difficult okay if that person is 220 you know if you're if you're not Adept in physics for example I dare you understand what this the real scientists mean when they talk about strength Theory or Quantum field Theory or whatever that's the the variation of intelligence that is maybe 20 30% more than yours right imagine if uh your you know someone is 10 times more intelligent than you then you're basically comparing the intelligence of a dolphin to human let's say different language like a totally different language they completely unable to comprehend what a human is talking right and uh and you know and you keep thinking about this Sam Harris was uh speaking uh on a podcast recently about what he calls the dog example right so imagine if all of the dogs uh invented us humans uh to take care of their needs right and in his example we did really well on fulfilling that you know by feeding them and grooming them and you know taking them to the vet when they're sick and so on like amazing invention which is what a what we are doing with AI we're trying to get something that helps us out uh but then the dogs are complet completely oblivious to the fact that you and I are having this conversation or to the fact that Einstein has been considering relativity or Neil's B was talking about quantum physics or that we have social constructs and uh you know debates about ethical values and you know they are completely oblivious to all of this they can't even comprehend what it is that we would be talking about if we discussed Quantum Fields here right and I think and the difference in IQ is what you know 100x uh imagine if it's a billion x a billion with a B is a comparison of an ant to Ein now but most people don't recognizes that now an important kind of

### The D diagram [12:29]

D diagram that you do want to see is this right here and essentially it shows the strange and vast biological range compared to ASI in terms of intelligence and I probably should have added the image of the zoomed up one but it basically says that we aren't that much smarter than chimps and we can see that with our intelligence versus a chimp's intelligence we've managed to be able to go to the moon but what happens when we get systems that are at the ASI level which is artificial super intelligence are we even going to be able to understand what they're doing or what even drives them and this excerpt from

### What super intelligence means [13:05]

the website says that there is no way to know what ASI will do or what the consequences will be for us and anyone who pretends otherwise doesn't understand what super intelligence means now of course we are quite a bit away from artificial super intelligence but you have to remember there are some caveats because from the article in 2013 they actually did predict that ASI and AGI would be in 40 and 2060 respectively however those timelines have changed because currently current predictions are predicting that AGI is going to be here in 3 to 5 years and remember it will change everything for everyone which is why I'm saying that GPT 5 is going to be a big deal and why many people are stating you know that this is going to be a bigger deal than you realize because of course GPT 5 might not be AGI in fact it could be they might just announced that gbt 5 is Agi I don't think they would it's still something that is likely going to shock you now there's some more Clips but there are two more things that I want to talk about before we get into the interview because if you remember the abilities jump from GPT 3. 5 to GPT

### Emergent capabilities [14:15]

or most people are stuck looking at the benchmarks and just thinking okay it improved this reasoning capabilities yada y yada but remember guys GPT 3. 5 to GPT 4 there were some things that we couldn't have predicted and these were called emergent capabilities now if you don't know what emergent capabilities are let me give you guys an example so essentially theory of mind and this is something that we all do have and research suggests that during the early formulation thinking processes of the theory of Mind capability starts to emerge and children supposedly begin to realize that they can think about the thinking of others and this skill becomes quite valuable for them so essentially theory of mind is where you can understand what someone else might be thinking so that you can make more informed decisions and this is an emergent capability that did appear in GPT 4 and it was something that we only discovered at GPT 4's level according to several reports so we can see here that it said GPT 4 performed best without examples the models achieved a theory of Mind accuracy of nearly 80% and with examples and reasoning instructions it achieved 100% accuracy in comparative tests where people had to answer under time pressure human accuracy was a about 87% and that goes to show ladies and gentlemen we are entering an era where these AI systems are likely to have emerging capabilities that we may not have realized we installed in them but due to the nature and size of these models they just increase in capabilities and these things tend to

### GPT proliferation [15:47]

happen there's um a thought that says you have char gpt3 which blew people away you had 3. 5 which was a huge Improvement you have GPT 4 that also took us to the next level and now you're working on GPT 5 the proliferation of the technology is still limited so we're still using it in very specific domain very specific use cases we haven't really seen the proper applications that are world changing why are we continuing to push across the bigger the better you know the larger models that we're seeing right now what's the logic behind that can you explain that to us well I think for that exact reason as you said we have not yet seen as much world changing uh application as we'd like maybe we've seen some um there are a lot of people who use these services and get value out of them but not as much as we'd like and I think the reason is um the current technology that we have is like I mean it's like that very first cell phone with the black and white screen that can only display those like numbers and you know it just didn't do much but there was enough in there you're like H I can make a call that's cool and at the time that seems great and then it took us I don't know how long from that but many decades from that to the iPhones we have today and the thing we have today is incredible and it took a massive amount of scaling in all these different ways to get there um but we have now is like unimaginable at the time of those like first primitive cell phones and I think that's what we have to push forward we're at this barely useful cell phone but people still like making phone calls it turns out and if you can make a better way for them to do it so they can go walk around the world while they do it sure that's great but that's not what we want to deliver the iPhone 16 or 15 or whatever the current one is and what's the timeline to reach the iPhone 16 from the current Motorola that we have you got to give us you got to be a little patient that's like a you know it took the world a while to do that last time around so give us some time but I will say I think in a few more years it'll be much better than it is now and in a decade it should be pretty remarkable and if we're going to compare um now you can see right there that Sam Alman is basically stating that this is pretty much like when the iPhone was released we had the iPhone we thought it was absolutely amazing and now we have these really amazing phones that are capable of so much okay and this is really really true because of course when the first phones released all we could do is make a phone call and now we can do a million different things

### Research [18:03]

and there was even a debate on Twitter the other day about the fact that llms have peaked and there's not much that we can do with them however research shows us that there's still a lot to go this is a paper from textbooks is all you need um it's a paper from Microsoft essentially they built an AI system and what they realized is that rather than increasing you know parameters and just making the model bigger and bigger they just gave it the highest quality data and that resulted in I think it was 100x increase in capabilities without the need for the increase in parameter size so they were able to essentially get a high quality data set put it into the model and it performed really well and not only that there was also this which is large language models as optimizers and essentially they talked about how prompts can actually change the performance of large language models and what they did is they used llms to make the prompts rather than having humans to make all these weird and quirky prompts like I will tip you $200 and what is weird is that when you say that to an AI model for some reason it does increase its capability so the point is here is that there's still a lot to go like there is a long way to go in terms of what we can do with these models and GPT 4 is just the beginning and with GPT 5 and future models the capabilities jump is likely to be pretty incredible now there was also this paper as well which shows us that we really do have a lot to go because this was a research paper that essentially talked about self-discover and they basically increased the capabilities across the board by as much as 20% and this is for models that were already released you know two years ago so think about it if we're still developing ways to increase the capabilities of models two years into what we know we still have not the very best understanding of what these models are capable of because we're still managing to get performance jumps now in addition he does actually go ahead and talk about some personalized

### Benefits to Humanity [20:05]

chat Bots look we have a long way to go and a lot to prove but I think if we can get if we can fulfill our mission uh if we can even get close to it the benefits to humanity of making intelligence broadly available uh inexpensive and sort of as a tool to let Humanity build the future I think is quite remarkable I think abundant intelligence and closely related to that abundant energy can unlock a future that is is sort of difficult for me to even imagine how good it could be uh and I think right now we don't realize how limited we are um by the limits on intelligence and how expensive it is and how difficult it is but if you imagine a world where everyone gets a great personal tutor great personalized medical advice we can use these tools to discover all sorts of new science cure diseases help the environment discover new physics who knows what else uh I think that's pretty remarkable and also just speaking personally I think this is like the most exciting Quest from here I can imagine being on and although whilst we aren't going to be probably discovering new knowledge with systems like gbt 5 because it does take a huge amount of compute to be able to do that what samman is saying here is that in the future these things certainly will be possible because that's what their end goal is it's going to be AGI and of course what he did also talk about was you know the personal chat Bots being there for everyone and something that recently did actually happened was of course GPT 4 did recently release their new memory update in which you can actually have personalization turned on as a default feature for chat gbt you just made a video about that too so that is going to be something that is really cool because of course scientific discovery is really going to change society and how close are we to

### How Far Off Are We [21:43]

division if you're going to talk about the drug Discovery curing cancer using um not CH GPT but large language look we have a long way to go and a lot to prove that I think if we can get if we can fulfill our mission uh if we can even get close to it the benefits to humanity of making int a future that is is sort of difficult for me to even imagine how good it and how close are we to the vision if you're going to talk about the drug Discovery curing cancer using um not CH GPT but large language model to try to solve some of the biggest physics questions chemistry questions biology questions of Our Lives how far off are we so the honest answer of course is we really don't know you know this is new science we're discovering new things all the time the rate of discovery is incredible the rate of change is incredible but it it's sort of hard to know exactly how far we have to go what I will say though is we hear all the time from scientists who say that our tools make them much more productive and they don't have an easy way to quantify that but they say it's substantial we also don't know how much that difference you know if you could make every scientist on Earth twice as productive what that would mean for the rate of scientific discovery cuz this is all so new this is like you know a little bit more than a year old but we'll find out so from that we do note that if the rate of scientific discovery does go up Society could exponentially increase and this is something that we have had happen recently I mean with the Advent of computers the productivity of society definitely went up perhaps about tenfold and if you know like we stated before with systems that are remarkably more intelligent than ourselves we could have you know hundred maybe a thousand

### AlphaGo [23:19]

different alberstein all working on different theories of the universe or you know different levels of physics that simply don't understand yet that could change our entire understanding of certain fundamental concepts and this kind of has already happened okay we've had Deep Mind do millions of new materials discovered with deep learning we've also had the fact that new knowledge is actually possible and if you remember what Alpha go was it essentially was a super intelligent system designed for the board game go and it essentially made up an entirely new move that nobody had seen before and it was some something that shocked everyone it said you know move 37 that left the tournament room in shock he went on to lose the match and the strategy that alphago built around move 37 was not taken out of a database of publicly known moves move 37 was new to the 5,500 year old history of go and the go commentators sometimes called inhuman and alien that move so it goes to show that AI can do things that we aren't going to predict and of course we don't know I I'd like to now just um jump into

### Fear of AI [24:29]

something that the fear-mongers and the opportunists talk about what is the most thing that you fear when it comes to um the deployment of AI and the most thing your opportunity you're optimistic about like if I'm going to tell you what keeps you up at night and what keeps you going in the morning give me one reason for that and one reason for be um the keep up at night is easy it's all of the Sci-Fi stuff uh you know I think sci-fi writers are a very smart bunch and in the Decades of sci-fi about AI uh there have been unbelievably creative ways to imagine that how this can go wrong and I think most of them are like comical but there are some things in there that are easy to imagine where things really go wrong and I'm not that interested in like the Killer Robots walking down the street direction of things going wrong I'm much more interested in the like very subtle societal misalignments where we just have these systems out in society and through no particular ill intention um things just go horribly wrong but the thing that wake me up in the morning with energy every day is what I actually believe is things are just going to go tremendously right we got to work hard to mitigate all of the downside cases they are I think very significant and and real potentials to confront the reason that we go think so hard about how to deploy this technology safely uh is the upside is remarkable um I think we can easily imagine a world in the not super distant future where everybody's got a better life than people have today I think we can raise the standard of living so incredibly much um if everybody has access to Abundant amounts of really high quality intelligence and they can use that tool those tools to create whatever they want to do that's like pretty amazing um I people I this is like kind of how I think about it but people are like oh that doesn't make any sense I'm going to say it anyway um if you think about everybody on Earth getting a the resources of ay of like hundreds of thousands of really competent people um and what that would do you know if you have like an AI programmer AI lawyer um AI marketer AI strategist and not just one of those but many of each and you get to sort of like decide how to use those to use that to kind of create whatever you want to create we're all going to get a lot of great stuff the creative power of humanity with tools like that should be remarkable so uh that's I think what gets us all up every morning so essentially In that clip Sam mman was talking about misalignment but I don't think he was talking about this misalignment okay because when people think about unaligned AI they think about the Terminator scenario where they are running through the cities you know trying to kill people kidnap people I don't even watch the Terminator movies I just know that it was pretty bad but what they are talking about what samman is actually getting and I think this is a wider issue that people do need to understand is the fact that we could be entering an era of this now I'm not talking about social media addiction but what I'm talking about is the fact that we could have technology that produces unintended consequences that we weren't thinking about if you remember when we invented social media it was a way for people to connect with each other but what happened was we got social media and then there were all of these second order consequences because of that we had people that were addicted to social media scroll on Tik Tok all day we had body issues we had people pretending and trying to present a certain life and a certain lifestyle online leading to levels of depression there were all of these different things and I think that is already starting to happen with AI through this and the rise of such tools could also deepen what some are calling an epidemic of loneliness as humans become reliant on these tools and vulnerable to emotional manipulation so imagine a system like GPT 5 is incredible at being able to mimic what you feel from an original human like a base level human I'm not sure what kind of terminology that is but just try to imagine what you get from your partner if you are in a relationship and think about how that could affect society if we have all of these AI systems that probably arguably even better at connecting with humans and they understand us better than Some Humans originally Could That Could exacerbate certain problems like loneliness and of course it's very hard to predict how these things are going to Ripple through Society but this is what we're talking about when we say the effects would definitely be something that we can't predict now there's also another thing that Sam Alman actually did talk about and this is a really important thing which is Will AI actually take your job my final question

### Advice for young people [29:09]

let's imagine that you're sitting right now in front of a teenager in Turkey another teenager in the Middle East somewhere like let's say qar or the UAE and someone that's in Africa or Asia and they're all asking you what should we do in the future how can we ensure that this doesn't take our jobs we are relevant in the AI age how can we uh be part of this future that you just they out that's very OPP optimistic that's extremely exciting what would you recommend they do should they study something as a specific domain should they take a certain course should we just play with the technology what advice do you have for them the first thing I would say is you are unbelievably lucky you are coming an age at probably the best time in human history you understand this technology young people are always the early adopters of Technology almost always but certainly in this case and you will be able to use these tools to do things that the people in the generation before you couldn't even imagine you will have your entire career uh flooded with opportunity and the ability to do amazing new things you'll be able to start companies that are phenomenally more impactful and successful than people generation before you could you will live in this incredibly expansionary opportun like just flooded with time of like massive opportunity and you can kind of go do whatever you want uh the I think the rule like the ground under us all is Shifting the rules are changing but the amount of value that will be created and the ability for an individual to express their Creative Vision and will uh it's a great time thank you so um and then I would try to see what makes sense and what doesn't and write the regulation around that I think it's very hard I think we have to try and we're going to anyway but I think it's very hard to get all of the regulatory ideas right in a vacuum um and if there was a sort of contained way that I could find a way to like give people the future and let them experiment it with it uh and then see what made sense uh what went really wrong what went really right and write the regulation around that that seems like an interesting experiment that I have been thinking about so the world is going to try all of these different regulatory approaches there will be your sandbox I think it's awesome that you have that other people do other things but we are going to and I think that's actually really good but we are going to need I believe at some point some sort of global system the example that I've given in the past is the iea the international atomic energy Agency for what happens with the most powerful of these systems because they will have truly Global impact and what sort of auditing what sort of safety measures do we want in place before you can deploy like a super intelligence or you know however you want to call an AGI and I think for a bunch of reasons the UAE would be so well set up to be a leader in the discussions around that I would like host a one-day conference with leaders from around the world to bring someone about that you can see that in that clip there Sam Alman is of course planning for super intelligence because that is something that they know is eventually going to happen and a range of other things that do require regulation because once this technology is there and I think one of the scary things about this technology that I started to realize is that guys even if open AI besides that you know what this technology is too powerful we're not going to release it the problem is that someone else is going to do that as well companies like meta and Google are hot on the heels of open AI so they could be the ones that could potentially even open source this and meta has stated clearly that is their goal of Open Source AGI so the future is interesting I mean are we going to be getting some crazy emerging capabilities from GPT 5 as its AI increases I mean I'll we going to be getting some increased reliability and then of course a worldwide of transformative impacts in terms of where we're going to be applying that and I wonder what the benchmarks will be like for this future system that will of course be GPT 5 and with that being said let me know what you're looking forward to the most for this future AI intelligent system and hopefully we can avoid some of the unfortunate unintended consequen