# Bill Ackman: How to Make Your First $1 Million in the Stock Market 

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** Investor Center
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysWFUGyp1cA

## Содержание

### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysWFUGyp1cA) Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)

If you wait until the uncertainty goes away, then everything reprices, you know, is much more likely to go back to fair value. So, the best time to be an investor deploying capital is — Bill Aman just revealed why the next market crash could hand you the single greatest wealth building opportunity of your lifetime. While 99% of investors will panic sell at the worst possible moment, Aman made $2. 6 billion in just 27 days during the 2020 crash. Not million, billion. And here's what most people don't understand. Every major fortune in history was built during a crisis. Rockefeller in 1907, Kennedy in 1929, Buffett in 2008. And right now, Aman's preparing for the next one because he knows something you don't. The scariest days in the market have historically produced 150% returns within 18 months. Miss those days and you miss the entire decade of gains. In the next few minutes, you'll discover Aman's exact threepart formula for turning market terror into generational wealth. The same playbook that turned his funds $27 million bet into 2. 6 billion. Let me show you why the world's smartest money is secretly hoping for a crash. — Anytime that something happens in markets that creates uncertainty, generally stocks go down, risk premium risk premia uh go up. Um, and if you wait until the uncertainty goes away, then everything reprices, you know, is much more likely to go back to fair value. So, the best time to be an investor deploying capital is in a period of maximum uncertainty. Um, whether it was COVID, you know, now the tariffs, um, the financial crisis, you know, each of these events that seemed catastrophic, it was an amazing time to deploy capital. Um, and I think one way to do it is just by buying market indices during periods of time. But if you're an investor and you can do real work on companies, if you can actually find the great businesses that get mispriced during that period, you can make uh even more money. So yes, uh you as an investor, you should get excited anytime it gets exciting. anytime it gets uncertain uh and the clouds come in, the storm is going um that's when you want to uh you know have capital to invest. — In other words, the scariest times are the best times to invest. Aman is saying that when uncertainty peaks during a pandemic, a trade war or financial meltdown, stocks get cheap and future returns get huge. Why? Because when everyone is afraid, they sell stocks indiscriminately. Prices plunge well below fair value. And if you wait for the fear to fade, prices will have bounced back to normal. So he's telling us, don't wait. Invest when the sky is darkest. It's a bold claim, but history backs him up. Consider this. During the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 plunged about 50%. Over the next 18 months, it soared roughly 150%. The same thing happened in 2020. Stocks fell 34% in the 2020 crash, then shot up 60% within a year. If you'd bought at peak panic, you could have doubled your money in a pretty short time. Crazy, right? It feels counterintuitive, but that's exactly what Aman and other great investors do. It's why Warren Buffett famously says, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. " When others ran from the market in 2020, Buffett and Aman were buying. And Aman doesn't just talk the talk. He literally made one of the greatest trades ever during a crisis. In early 2020, when most investors panicked, Aman placed a $27 million bet that the market would crash. When the crash happened, the bet paid off to the tune of $2. 6 billion in a month. Yes, billion with a B. Then, with markets in freef fall, he turned around and bought stocks on sale. He poured a chunk of that windfall into blue chips like Hilton Hotels and Lowe's at fire sale prices. In short, he kept his cool, had cash ready, and scored a 100fold return when everyone else was in chaos. So, what's the lesson for us? It means the next time the market is in full panic mode, we should pay attention. When fear spikes, stocks go on clearance. Smart investors who prepare, who have some cash on the sidelines and a shopping list of great companies, can swoop in and buy at a discount. The payoff for having courage in those moments can be enormous. This is exactly how Aman suggests you could jump start your journey to $1 million instead of drip feeding money in calm times. Save up and strike when there's chaos in the streets. Now, of course, buying in a crisis is easier said than done. It feels awful in the moment. Your hands are shaking. Everyone's yelling that the sky is falling. But that's when valuations are at their most attractive. That's when, as Aman puts it, the storm is going and you must have capital ready. If you can remember that when the time comes, you'll be doing what 99% of investors can't. And that's exactly how fortunes are made. Look, identifying

### [5:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysWFUGyp1cA&t=300s) Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)

those unbreakable businesses with true moes, the Amazons and Costos before they become obvious, that's not easy. It's exactly the kind of real work on companies Aman's talking about. That's why we created investor center research. Think of it as your crisis preparation kit. Every month, we deliver institutional-grade research on one deeply undervalued, highquality business prepared by working investment professionals. You'll see our full analysis, valuation models, and even watch our model portfolio in action. For the next few days, you can join at up to 35% off. Just hit the link below or scan the QR code. Don't wait for the next crash to start building your list of great companies. Now, back to Acme. All right. So, being greedy when others are fearful can supercharge your returns. But Aman has a crucial second part to this formula. It's not enough to buy anything just because it's cheap. You have to buy the right companies. Remember, he said, "If you can do the work to find great businesses that get mispriced, you can make even more money. " But here's what nobody tells you. Many investors get this completely wrong. So, what separates a truly unbreakable business from one that just looks good on paper? What's the difference between a company that will thrive through any crisis versus one that'll get crushed? Aman has a shockingly simple test he uses. One question that instantly reveals whether a business has real staying power or is just another pretender. And when you hear which companies pass his test and which ones fail, it might change how you look at investment research. Let's hear him explain. — You know, I think durability comes from um you know, I would say patents are not that protective. Uh generally um usually what creates durability is that the company gets to a certain kind of market position. They become the category leader. They offer a product or service that their customers love. Uh they're at a certain scale that is difficult uh to disrupt. Um and they can do things that companies of smaller scale would have you know difficulty uh sort of challenging. I mean think of the market position of Amazon for example right try is the poss there's really it's an impossibility to create a new Amazon right just the uh the customer think about a Costco right a business that has enormous buying power uh has a business model where their customers are effectively subscribers and they continually work to keep you know their product at the cheapest possible cost and the customer experience great um if you look at the companies we own think about Uber's market position Right? You don't want you want an app that gets you a car that you know is going to be clean, run by a professional driver that's done, you know, several, you know, thousands of rides and the car is going to come quickly. So, you want the biggest network of cars. Universal Music has 40% of the recorded music uh market share in the United States, a third kind of globally. Uh incredibly dominant, you know, market position. Hilton, you know, biggest network of hotels, extremely well-managed company over a long period of time. Think about how hard it could be to create another Hilton, right? Um, there are lots of businesses that seem like good businesses. One of the tests I use is if this business disappeared tomorrow, what impact would it have on the world? And there are a lot of companies that if they disappeared, it really wouldn't matter much. But if Amazon disappeared, it would have a very significant impact on people's lives. Same thing's true for Hilton. Universal Music. Same thing's true for Uber. Um but they're sort of on you know a software company that solves one specific problem you know that maybe someone else could solve. Most companies I think that make things like that make products it's harder for them to have very durable uh kind of competitive advantages. Uh so we tend to be investors in um you know I would say those are the kind of characteristics that we look for and then you want to couple it uh with a balance sheet where they're never going to be they're always going to be able to make the right decision uh without regard to short-term financial pressures and the ability to do that will allow them to continue to extend kind of the barriers that make it difficult uh to compete. We try to find we like businesses that generally are not too reliant on some unique technology uh sort of pure technology type companies because the probability of someone else introducing a better version of that unique technology is high particularly in an AI enabled world. — Aman just laid it out the best way to make a fortune is to own highquality durable businesses. These are companies with a deep moat around them. Dominant in their market, loved by customers, running at such a scale that no upstart can easily knock them off. He wants what Warren Buffett calls businesses with a moat, a lasting competitive advantage. If two students in a dorm room can code a better product next year, it's not durable. If a competitor can undercut its prices and steal its customers, it's not durable. Durable means lasting. So, how do you identify a truly durable, unbreakable business? Here's Aman's

### [10:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysWFUGyp1cA&t=600s) Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00)

favorite test. If this business disappeared tomorrow, what impact would it have on the world? Did you catch that? If it went away, would people really care? If the answer is yes, a lot of people would care. That's a strong sign of durability. If the answer is no, life goes on just fine, then the company probably doesn't have a serious moat. It might be easily replaceable. Aman says many companies wouldn't be missed much if they were gone. Those likely lack a deep competitive edge. But companies like Amazon, Uber, Hilton, Universal Music, if they vanished, there'd be a big void. That's what you want to own. Businesses that are so ingrained that the world needs them or at least really wants them. Let's break down a few key traits these durable star share so you can spot them. The first trait is being a category leader. They are number one or sometimes a very strong number two in their industry. Amazon, for example, accounts for nearly 40% of US e-commerce. Universal Music Group has about 1/3 of global music revenue. Being the leader gives them scale advantages. They can operate more efficiently and negotiate better deals than smaller rivals. And customers usually flock to the biggest network like Uber's ride share network or Hilton's hotel portfolio. The next trait is having customer love and trust. These companies have loyal followings. Costco, as Aman mentioned, has tens of millions of paid members who swear by the value it provides and renew at around a 90% rate. People love the service and stick around. It's hard for a newcomer to steal those customers because the products or experience is just that good. Think of Apple's iPhone. Huge customer loyalty. If Apple were your target, not saying Acman's buying Apple, but hypothetically, you would know they have fanatical customers. Economies of scale are also an important component of many durable businesses. They're at a scale that smaller competitors simply cannot match. Amazon's massive distribution network means it can ship faster and cheaper than any startup. Costco's buying power lets it offer prices no small retailer can touch. Scale itself becomes a moat. Bigger can be better because it drives cost down and erects barriers to entry. Similarly, high switching costs or network effects can also be crucial for some durable businesses. Uber, for instance, benefits from a network effect. Riders go where the drivers are. Drivers go where the riders are. It's a self-reinforcing cycle that a new competitor like a hypothetical startup ride share would struggle to overcome. Similarly, if you have all your music with Spotify or all your friends on a social network, you are less likely to switch. A durable business often has this stickiness. Lastly, another key trait that most durable businesses share is a strong balance sheet. Amen emphasized this. A durable company should have the financial strength to weather storms and invest for the future. In his words, they should never be forced into bad short-term decisions due to financial pressure. That usually means manageable debt, good cash flow, and access to capital. If a company is drowning in debt, it might cut R&D or quality when times are tough, which can erode its long-term position. Amens companies that can play offense even in recessions, not ones that have to beg for rescue. In 2020, he noted that his portfolio companies, things like Lowe's and Chipotle, not only survived during the crisis, they thrived because they were well capitalized and highquality. In his 2020 letter, he wrote that the well- capitalized, highquality, durable growth companies comfortably weathered the storm. That says it all. And one more point Aman made, he's wary of companies that depend on a single unique technology that someone else could quickly make obsolete. In an AI enabled world, as he put it, today's tech edge could be tomorrow's old news. So, he prefers businesses whose durability doesn't hinge on having the most cuttingedge tech, but rather on things like brand, scale, network, and execution, advantages that are hard to copy overnight. Now, this doesn't mean he avoids tech companies entirely. He's invested in things like Netflix in the past, but they need to have those enduring qualities. For example, one could argue Google search business is durable not just because of its tech, but because of its massive user base and data advantage. It's deeply entrenched. Whereas a small software tool with one cool feature could be leaprogged by a competitor with a better feature next year. All these factors combine into what we call an economic moat. If you're trying to make $1 million starting from scratch, Aman's telling you build your portfolio around companies with wide moes and buy them when they're on sale during a crisis. That way, you get the explosive upside of the market recovery and the long-term compounding of a great business. It's a one-two punch. You make money on the rebound, and then you keep making money for years or decades as the business grows. Let me give you a powerful example from Aman's own career that ties this all together. Back in 2009, right in the depths of the Great Recession, Aman spotted a company that everyone had completely written off, General Growth Properties, one of the largest small operators in America. GGP was actually in bankruptcy. Talk about

### [15:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysWFUGyp1cA&t=900s) Segment 4 (15:00 - 18:00)

maximum uncertainty. But Aman did his homework and discovered that GGP's assets, shopping malls, were still extremely valuable, just buried under too much debt. He believed that if you reorganized the debt, the business would survive and thrive again. It was a classic case of a good business in a bad situation. So what did he do? He swooped in during that crisis and bought GGP shares for pennies. People thought he was nuts. Malls were doomed, bankruptcy, etc. But a couple years later, GGP emerged strong and Aman stake, which cost Persing Square around60 million, ballooned to over $1. 6 billion. That's more than a 26 times return. Think about that. While others were panic selling mall stocks, he was buying one with great underlying assets, highquality malls in good locations at rock bottom prices, and it paid off big. This is a textbook example of what we've been talking about. Find a durable asset on sale during a crisis. Have the conviction and cash to buy it when everyone else is afraid. And then reap the massive gains when normaly returns. Now I do want to emphasize something. None of this is easy to execute acceman strategy. You need patience, courage, and preparation. Patience because you might wait years for a crisis big enough to create those maximum uncertainty moments. Courage because when that moment comes, it will feel like the world is ending. It takes guts to buy when your screen is all red and everyone is shouting sell in preparation because you need to have done the research on what companies are worth pouncing on before the crash happens. As Zachman said, if you can do real work on companies ahead of time and identify those gems, you'll know exactly what to grab when the market misprices them. So ask yourself, do I have a plan for when things go south? Do I have a list of a few dream stocks? Companies with wide moes, great management, strong finances that I'd love to own for the next 10 to 20 years, but only at a much lower price. If not, maybe it's time to make that list because downturns do happen. They might not come on a predictable schedule, but they do come. And as Aman showed, even a single well-played crisis can make a huge difference in your net worth. Now, let's be clear. This is not about market timing in the sense of trading in and out every week. It's about recognizing those rare seismic panic events, the 2008s, the 2020s, and having the conviction to go against the crowd. Most people won't do it. It's lonely being a buyer in a freef fall. You might look wrong for a while, but that's the price of admission for outsized rewards. If it were comfortable, everyone would do it and the opportunity would vanish. So, if you're starting from scratch and aiming for that first $1 million, Billman's advice boils down to this. Keep some dry powder or cash ready. Wait for a maximum fear moment and then bet on the strongest businesses you can find. Don't waste a crisis by sitting on your hands or worse selling in a panic. Instead, do what Acman does. Get excited when the clouds roll in because that's your chance to buy great companies for cheap. Then, as the storm passes and those companies keep thriving, your net worth can climb dramatically. But here's the thing. Knowing when to buy during a crisis is only half the equation. You also need to know how to protect yourself from catastrophic losses while you're hunting for those bargains. That's where billionaire investor Seth Clarman comes in. If Acman teaches you how to be aggressive when others are fearful, Clarman shows you how to be aggressive without blowing yourself up. In this next video, you'll discover how Clar turned $100 into 1. 8 billion by mastering the art of margin of safety, buying so intelligently that even when he's wrong, he doesn't lose big. He'll show you exactly how to structure your portfolio so you're never forced to sell at the worst possible moment and why the biggest fortunes are built by those who avoid disasters, not just chase returns. I will see you over there.

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*Источник: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/34471*