# Ray Dalio is Warning You…(Most Won’t Listen) ## Метаданные - **Канал:** Investor Center - **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIKz35IuOao ## Содержание ### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIKz35IuOao) Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00) realize that the consequences of not doing it are disastrous. It's like being on a boat headed to rocks and on the boat everybody agrees you have to turn and they can't agree whether you turn left or you turn right and they're going to go right into the rocks. — Billionaire investor Ray Dalio just issued a chilling warning. The United States is rapidly heading toward a full-blown debt crisis. Trillions in deficits, soaring interest costs, and runaway debt have set the country on a path that ends in one of two ways. Decisive action or economic disaster. Dalio compares it to a boat headed straight for the rocks. Unless decisive action is taken, the US could crash into a full-blown debt spiral where interest payments consume the federal budget, investor confidence collapses, and the usual tools to fix the economy simply stop working. But this video isn't just about sounding the alarm. Dalio also outlines a potential way out. A bold three-part 3% solution that could stabilize the economy if action is taken soon. Make sure to stick around till the end of the video to see how the US got here. What comes next and the difficult choices that may be required to prevent a collapse of economic stability. Let's dive in. There are business cycles or short-term debt cycles um in which people want to spend and credit uh is available and so they take on credit and that causes the short-term cycle where everything goes up. Markets go up. When credit's available, everything goes up and then and when it gets overdone and you run into capacity constraints and so on produces inflation, they tighten monetary policy and you have those cycles. The credit system I think of as being like the circulatory system in your body that brings like blood brings nutrients to different parts of your body. It brings these nutrients the buying power and if it's used well so that it produces income then everybody prospers. So you know uh the lender gets paid back and the um person who borrowed it and used it to be productive be it's great and so at those times you don't see debts rise relative to incomes. However when incomes on a chronic basis for a long time it's like u plaque in that system accumulating. Uh think of it this way. um the more debt and debt service you have um the more the less money you can spend out of your income. So as it rises right now for the US government it's almost a trillion dollars a year that goes to interest payments. So it it's sort of like plaque that narrows that and it's and it's a problem. There's also a supply demand issue for credit like every other market. So that when um we have a run a large deficit and now the deficit's projected to be about 7 12% of GDP when you run a large deficit you have to sell debt to do that and the quantity of debt sold has to come up against how many buyers are there and when I calculate it the quantity of debt s to be sold is much greater than there is the buying power the inclination to buy. So that's the second thing the debt service payments having that problem uh the problem in terms of the supply demand and then you can you get into a dynamic when it gets uh bad and that debt service that you have to uh get you can have selling of existing debt and that's when you have real problems. Now in the private markets, credit markets, we just talk about a debt uh death spiral. And a debt death spiral is that part of the cycle when you when the uh debtor needs to borrow money in order to pay debt service and it accelerates and then everybody sees that and they don't want to hold the debt. That's where we're approaching. In this clip, legendary investor Ray Dalio explains two powerful economic concepts, short-term and long-term debt cycles. Let's break these ideas down clearly and relate them to what's currently unfolding in the United States. First, the short-term debt cycle. Think of the economy like a roller coaster. It regularly goes up and down in somewhat predictable cycles. This is what investors like Ray Dalio call the short-term debt cycle. The short-term debt cycle typically lasts around 5 to 8 years and is made up of four distinct phases. The first phase is called expansion. This is the feel-good part of the cycle. Interest rates are low, borrowing money is cheap, and banks are eager to lend. People take advantage, buying homes, cars, or making big purchases they otherwise might delay. Businesses also borrow to expand, open new locations, or hire more workers. This boosts employment, incomes rise, and spending increases, fueling even more economic growth. It's a positive ### [5:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIKz35IuOao&t=300s) Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00) feedback loop. Optimism grows, pushing the economy upwards, at least for a while. This leads into the second phase of the short-term debt cycle, peak and inflation. Eventually, all this easy money flowing through the economy creates a new problem, inflation. With more people spending freely, demand for products and services surges, but supply can't always keep up. Businesses see they can raise prices because consumers have extra cash and are willing to pay more. Suddenly, prices on everything from houses and cars to groceries and gas start climbing higher. As prices rise, your money doesn't stretch as far as it used to. This means everyday purchases become more expensive, squeezing household budgets. Ultimately, inflation happens because there's too much money chasing too few products, making everyone feel the pinch and setting the stage for the next phase of the cycle. The third phase of the short-term debt cycle now enters the picture, contraction. To fight rising inflation, the Federal Reserve or the Central Bank of the United States steps in by increasing interest rates. Higher interest rates mean loans become more expensive. Monthly payments on mortgages, car loans, and business loans go up, making borrowing less attractive. As a result, people cut back on big purchases, and companies hold off on expansion plans. With less spending on investment, businesses see their sales drop and begin cutting costs, often by laying off workers. This creates a negative ripple effect. Unemployment rises, consumer confidence drops, and markets start declining as investors become cautious. The economy slows down significantly, putting us into a downturn or recession. This economic weakness creates the fourth phase of the short-term debt cycle, recovery. After a downturn, the economy is weak. Unemployment is high, spending is down, and businesses struggle. To get things moving again, the Federal Reserve steps in by lowering interest rates. Lower rates means borrowing becomes cheaper, encouraging consumers to buy homes, cars, and other big ticket items again. It also encourages businesses to borrow money to invest in growth like opening new stores or hiring more workers. Gradually, confidence returns and economic activity picks up as people and businesses begin spending more freely. Demand increases, companies start rehiring, and the economy slowly recovers. Eventually, optimism returns in full force, setting the stage for another cycle of expansion and growth. But here's where it gets dangerous. Each time the Fed stimulates the economy, debt levels tend to rise a little higher than before. Consumers, companies, and especially governments, take on more debt than they pay off. These short-term cycles, when stacked on top of one another over decades, form what Dalio calls the long-term debt cycle. The long-term debt cycle typically plays out over 50 to 75 years. And it ends when debt becomes so large that it can no longer be sustained. Think of it like someone constantly refinancing their credit cards. Eventually, even the minimum payments become too much. That's when you risk entering what Daloo calls a debt spiral. A debt spiral happens when the borrower, whether it's a household or an entire government, starts borrowing more money just to cover the interest on the old debt. Investors see this panic and stop buying that debt unless they get much higher returns. That drives interest costs even higher, which leads to more borrowing, and the cycle accelerates in a dangerous way. This is how financial crisis begin. You're no longer borrowing to invest in growth. You're borrowing to survive. Today, the US national debt has surpassed over $ 36 trillion. In order to pay for this debt, the US government spends nearly a trillion dollars every year just on interest payments. Deficits are projected to remain large and debt continues to climb. If left unchecked, we may be approaching the late stages of the long-term debt cycle, where the next downturn could expose structural problems that can't be fixed with another interest rate cut. Understanding this dynamic is critical, not just for economists and investors, but for anyone trying to make sense of where the economy is heading and how to protect their financial future. Fortunately, Dalio believes the United States fate is not yet completely sealed. Listen to him explain how the US can avoid the worst possible outcome. — It has to be done by three things. There is and it has to be spread out among these three things because any one of those three things would be too painful. And those three things are tax revenue, spending cuts, and interest rates. And although Congress and the you know the president and the process does not deal directly with the third of those right now a trillion dollars half of our deficit is interest payments and not only do we have a trillion dollar interest payments in the next year we have $9 trillion of debt maturing that has to be either rolled ### [10:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIKz35IuOao&t=600s) Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00) over or sold. hold. — Well, wait. Doesn't that mean interest rates are going to uh not go down if we're adding more to the deficit and they have all this expiring? — That's right. So, there's so there is what I call my 3% threepart solution um which was very similar to 1990 to9 uh excuse me 1991 to98. It was cut by 5% of GDP. The budget deficit in those years was cut by 5% of GDP by spreading it around. So the three things are needed. So if there's a mantra that about 4% here's the magnitudes of it about 4% uh if it came from tax revenue doesn't mean tax um rates but it could be tax revenue 4% was cut from the budget deficit that would naturally change the supply demand picture to bring down interest rates by uh 1 to one a 12% % which would itself reduce the deficit by another 2% or so. — But well, let me push on that question of how are you going to raise more revenues? You say it's not just by allowing tax cuts to expire, but don't some of those tax cuts have to expire if your 333 solutions going to work? Where it comes is a political question. Uh, in other words, yes, you can let the tax expire or you so many different ways. — Ray Dalio has a warning for America. The national debt is growing fast and if it's not dealt with soon, the country will face serious economic consequences. But instead of gloom and doom, Dalio offers a potential path forward. A practical fix he calls the three-part 3% solution. Let's break it down. The US government is running massive annual deficits, meaning the country is spending far more each year than it is bringing in through taxes. This visual here demonstrates what Dalio is talking about. You can see in 2024, the US government brought in $4. 9 trillion through a combination of individual income taxes, payroll taxes, and corporate taxes. However, the US government spent a whopping $6. 8 trillion that same year. That $1. 8 8 trillion gap between what the government took in and what it spent is what is known as a deficit. Right now, the federal deficit is around 6 to 7% of GDP. Over time, this builds up debt. And the bigger the debt, the more we pay just in interest. Right now, the US is spending nearly $1 trillion a year just to pay interest on that debt. That's money not going to education, infrastructure, or healthcare. This is where his three-part approach comes in. According to Dalio, there are only three ways to reduce a budget deficit. The first way is to cut government spending. Cutting government spending means reducing how much the government allocates to things like defense, social security, Medicare, infrastructure, and public services. It could also mean trimming bureaucracy or eliminating inefficiencies in federal agencies. The problem? Almost every area of spending is politically sensitive. Cutting defense might raise national security concerns. Reducing Medicare or Social Security anger seniors and trimming social programs can hurt low-income families. That's why spending cuts are so difficult. They affect real people and are often met with resistance. But despite the politics, Dalio argues that smart, targeted cuts are a necessary part of solving the deficit problem. Second is to increase tax revenue. One way to reduce the deficit is straightforward. Raise taxes. That could mean increasing income tax rates on individuals, especially high earners, or raising corporate tax rates on businesses. It might also include higher taxes on capital gains, dividends, or estates, areas where wealthy individuals often pay lower effective tax rates. While tax hikes are never popular, they can generate substantial revenue quickly. And from Ridalio's perspective, they're one of the few direct tools available to close the budget gap. Of course, raising taxes can come with trade-offs. If done poorly, it can discourage investment or reduce incentives to work and innovate. That's why Dalio emphasizes balance. Raising taxes enough to help fix the deficit, but not so much that it stifles economic growth. The third part of Dalio's solution involves lowering interest rates, which help reduce the government's cost of borrowing. When rates fall, the government pays less in interest on its existing debt, freeing up hundreds of billions of dollars in the budget. But here's the key insight from Dallio. Lower interest rates aren't something the Fed should do first. They're something that should happen naturally if the government gets its fiscal house in order. In other words, if the US takes meaningful steps to cut spending and raise revenue, that would restore investor confidence and with less risk in the system, interest rates could decline on their own without ### [15:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIKz35IuOao&t=900s) Segment 4 (15:00 - 16:00) extreme intervention from the Federal Reserve. Dalio believes all three of these actions, reducing spending, increasing taxes, and lowering interest rates, all need to happen at the same time. Dalio warns that relying too heavily on just one of these tools, won't work and could even backfire. Cutting spending too aggressively can slow the economy. Raising taxes too much can discourage investment, and lowering interest rates too far risks inflation or bubbles. That's why he emphasizes balance. The key is to blend all three tools in a thoughtful way. Cut some spending, raise some revenue, and ease interest costs where possible. That way, no single group bears all the pain, and the economy can remain stable. Dalio isn't the only super investor sounding alarm bells. Warren Buffett just gave one of the most unsettling interviews we've seen in years. He's not talking about stocks or recessions, but something much bigger that could quietly erode your savings, your retirement, even the value of the dollar in your wallet. Click the video on screen now to hear what he's warning about and what you can do to protect yourself. I will see you over there. --- *Источник: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/34473*