# BITCOIN: DEATH CROSS IN STOCKS... (Iran, Altcoins, QnA)

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** Ivan on Tech
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU

## Содержание

### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU) Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)

Oh yes so yes guys welcome to another episode and as you can see right now we do have a very interesting situation oops one second guys we need to do like this and then there you go the chart is right here you can see clearly by the way how is the sound we've been debating should we use the cyber schlong as some people have been calling this mic or the small one size is not always what matters today we use the small one because people said it's a bit better yesterday but anyway look here we have big at 69 9 trying to hold 70 really but let's see guys as you know our opinion here has not changed we are in this very bad position where we cannot even get above the previous yearly low and uh that's it basically I mean nothing has changed the situation changes only when price changes and currently it hasn't done so what has changed what we have to speak about is the death cross that's happening right now for the S&P 500 as you know we've been speaking about that the S&P 500 is not looking too good uh because of the uh weakness here. It was uh really showing us many signals that it wants to go down the whole February, March. I mean, ever since December even we're speaking that it doesn't look too good that it cannot get above it. And now uh we did finally get rejection. We broke below the 100 day moving average, went below the 200 day moving average. Now we're on the daily chart. And now we see something interesting. We see the death cross right here, right now. And the question is it time to for a bounce because sometimes when you have the death cross it is actually the recovery time especially in crypto in the stock market it is not really true to the same extent. I mean if you look at the last one which was uh which was right here. Yes, we did see a uh fantastic rally shortterm right here, but uh yeah, I mean it was just shortterm and then we had another leg down and uh that basically was the uh the bottom. Uh if you look at the 50-day crossing the 200 day, that may be a better signal, but now we're crossing the uh the 100 day. So yeah, that's number one uh example. Then let's see in the past where the other example is here. Here it was also right before another leg down and uh it wasn't the bottom. We actually had another quite significant dump. It looks not too big because uh if you measure you see it's like 7% for the stock market it's quite a lot. uh from here to this it was 7 uh 8% and then uh from this stop to the bottom it was yeah also like 7%. So it was quite significant. All in all I think that the stock market is the main chart to watch and the fact that we have a death cross currently is not a reason to be bullish right now. I think we are seeing a bit of a bounce already. I mean, that's what we're seeing right here. But a rejection here is very likely. It's kind of already happening with the 200 day moving average. And if the stock market gets rejected here and has another leg down, which I think is the more likely scenario here, um, Bitcoin is going to go into the buy zone. And that's exactly where we load up the fiat truck. It's very important that you we back up the fiat track, we'll load it with fiat, and we deploy it into crypto. Um, we al we're also seeing now the S&P get a bit of support at the 50 week moving average on the weekly time frame, but chances are we go all the way down here to the uh to the 100 week. I think that's a very possible scenario. So, let's see guys, everything really depends on how the war in Iran progresses. Will they end it? Will they not end it? How the oil looks like? For the past weeks, we've been speaking about oil is the most important chart in the world right now. It is uh still very high. It goes up towards 100 again. Okay. Again. It was at 85. People said it's over. You know, now it's only going to go down. It's back again, guys. Towards 100. As long as this is stubborn, the S&P is likely to continue to go down. Now, speaking about individual stocks, there are some examples where the deal is simply too good to ignore. Uh if we look at um uh tech stocks and uh Microsoft let's see if I have it here right here guys Microsoft now is looking very interesting if you go on the weekly because it fell below the uh the 200 week this one is super interesting because normally buying this you know super quality mega corpse at 200 week historically it's very good and uh it's kind of like Bitcoin you Historically, Bitcoin 200 week is very good. Also, you know, in the past, uh we did touch it here back in 2022. Uh we didn't really close any weeks below it. Let's see if we actually close a week below the 200 week. But if you want to buy something that's, you

### [5:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=300s) Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)

know, historically doesn't really go to 200 week. I mean, Bitcoin goes to 200 week. Bitcoin also goes below. And Bitcoin normally we say is a good buy at the 200 week. you know Microsoft this one I mean the last time it was really below 200 week was 2008 okay 2008 so the risk of course is that we have something like the 2008 2009 where it went actually 50% below the 200 week but if you just look at the scale of probabilities that is super unlikely u very unlikely it can still happen so you need to do risk management but it's very unlikely so Microsoft at the 200 week holy crap I mean it's uh quite uh quite a good opportunity. I think if you look back next year in two years is going to be quite a good opportunity. Um and it's kind of like Bitcoin in the buy zone for Microsoft the buy zone is somewhere here at the 200. Let's look at Meta. Meta still has a long way to fall to the 200 moving average. Just as an example here, you see Meta still has a long way to fall. You can actually short Metal. Let's go to the money line. It has a new bare trend. And uh here the shortable opportunity is all the way down to the 200E moving average which is how much down? Quite a lot down. Meta and the Zach another 25% down for Meta. Looking at Nvidia still bullish trend still hanging on there. This is why the stock market is still not down too much. But as soon as this thing goes bare is right on the border guys. This thing can go bare any day. And if the week closes bare then the chances of us just going lower is bigger as well. So keep an eye here. If it falls the whole stock market is going to fall. Nvidia is now carrying the whole stock market. Apple looking at Apple. Uh I mean still okay. Herping and derping but also can easily go to 200 week. This is not a good chart. Meaning that it's not as good as uh you know meta. Meta has a clear fall here. Apple you look here doesn't have a clear fall. It has too much support here with this moving averages. So not as interesting uh from a trading perspective. Looking at Amazon, this one is a bit interesting because now it is getting supported by the 100week moving average. Seems that it wants to go down. Path of least resistance is down because we are in a bare trend. So the fall to the next moving average from here is approximately 20%, another 20% down for uh for Amazon. Uh looking at Google, is Google coming to our guys? I mean, if you've been following the channel, you know that we said here when it started to go bare, the fall to the 50 week is going to be amazing. And uh we're there. I mean, we're not there yet to the 50, but I mean, the fall has started. And this is an example of a great chart where you see how much room there is to fall. It's fantastic. So, let's see if we get to the 50WE, but I think it's like the earliest target. Then you have later targets here at 100 week and 200 week even. Let's look at Palanteer. O this chart is also quite interesting. You see breakdown below 50 week then retest. Should we get rejected now the next stop is the 100 week. And if we measure here from this rejection another 31% fall for balance here can easily happen as we now use the 50WE as resistance and not support. Uh let's check so far. — Holy crap. Yeah, I mean this is uh this is why we use the mechanical rules, money line. Sometimes you open up the charts, it's uh exact it's, you know, exact diarrhea that happened on the bare flip. This is the textbook and diarrhea was so big that it didn't even get too much support at the 50. It had a bit of support because you see the week here and then it broke down to the 100 week. Let's see if it gets support here, guys. Should it break the 100 week, you have a nice target here of approximately another 30% down to 200 and somewhere here likely it will bottom out. I mean 200 week it's normally things bottom out somewhere there if they're destined for another leg up which doesn't apply to most all coins by the way. Oracle I see Oracle by the way Oracle very simil I mean Oracle is textbook diarrhea when it flipped bare uh smashed through the 50WE smashed through the 100 week now getting support at the 200 week. Could Oracle bottom somewhere here? Let's check how often Oracle goes to the 200 week. Not too often. Yeah. I mean, normally guys, I mean, as you can see here, Oracle is quite good uh opportunity. Quite good opportunity here at the 200 week. And by the way, if you also if you look at um uh at Bitcoin, as soon as it goes to 200 week, that's where the buy zone starts. That's where we have the uh the buy zone. If we go here to business valuation at week and below is where the buy zone is. So uh it's how it is constructed. You know the bzone is not something that uh I pulled out of my donut just to speak about some bison. It is tested and verified by uh decades

### [10:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=600s) Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00)

and decades actually centuries of proof just like we write in the big prophets. everything that has to do with mechanical rules with trend following and all of that. It's the only strategy that even the retail can deploy because of trend following and mechanical rules. You don't have to be a PhD for that. You just need to know the rules. You need to be able to apply them. You need to understand the mechanics behind them and then you can deploy them. So that's why I'm telling you all the time, you know, go and watch the free training so at least you get some introduction to it. you get at least some introduction to it watching the free video bulmaya. com and uh we will explain to you because it's so important also I want to share some games that our community has been doing the interesting thing as always is that it's both long and short for example big daddy uh broke big daddy broke just joined us and said that he got the first profit uh since joining by shorting Mnt Mantel right Mnt Mantle yeah Um then we have another one here. First of many. Oh yeah, he replied to big dazzy and um said that money line and gravity for the win. Exactly. When you have gravity, cryptos are down. Bitcoin is in the bare trend. All cryptos have gravity to the downside. Also big shout out to Tao for this is the Tao guy in our community because he is sharing the uh the USD gains as well. I mean all of this um gains people can either share them in USD or in percent. It's just um how you want it. So, I love that he's sharing the USD gains. Fantastic. Both longing and shorting back and forth. Uh I have also many here that I missed during the last uh days. Uh all kinds of longs, all kinds of shorts. Uh also, this one is interesting comment. I wanted to react to this. This one was from YouTube. Ian, you need to adjust your lows up. This guy says, what's his name? Oh yeah, I don't I don't I don't want to say uh you need to adjust your lows up. Forget 35K. It's not happening. And maybe it is some misunderstanding here. But you see, we don't know where the bottom is. I I don't claim to Uh but it is somewhere uh at 200 week or below 200 week. And we have this box here. Not saying that it has to go all the way down to this box. Uh whenever we feel bullish on the money line, we know to be bull. Okay. So, this is more of a probability. I'm not saying that it's going to go to uh 35 or, you know, or lower. Uh we don't know where the bottom is, but we know that it's likely somewhere here. And the last thing you want to do is to wait for some kind of arbitrary number. Let's say 35K or 30K and just wait just to buy there. You want to go all in a 35K. It's a very bad strategy. Instead, you start deploying in the buy zone here slowly from the beginning because the downside risk is big. I mean, 40K is not impossible. The stock market has another leg down. Bitcoin We can be at 40 quite quickly. Uh, of course, we don't know. So, we are just buying especially here at 200 week below 200 week. Accumulating, accumulating. Uh, we don't know where the bottom is, but as soon as the uh, flip is bull, we're bull. That's it. Keeping it simple. So, yeah, just want to clarify that. Oh, by the way, and this is from another of our members that joined um that joined a few months ago. Uh she is 60 years old. She has a son, maybe even a grandson. And she said, "Listen, my son is asking me, you need to buy XRP. " My response, "Have you looked at the charts, son? It's in a bare trend. " So no son, hell no son. And she said that she managed to get out of XRP before the collapse. That's very very nice. So yeah, uh looking at the stories, it's very important to realize mechanical rules is something that uh anyone can um anyone can implement. How's the mic? Is it disconnecting? Is it not disconnecting? On Monday, guys, we're going to be in the proper studio here. I just have this one. So we'll have to survive. Is it disconnecting or what's happening? Check, check, check. Or it's fad. It's fad or it's disconnecting. Let me know. Anyway, let's continue. So we discussed Bitcoin. We discussed with u the sts. we discussed with um uh the system and so on so forth. Let's speak about the Larink Larf think statements. Basically, he said that uh listen if we go to 150 oil is going to be penito. It's going to be phenito and crazy. Listen to this. Well, at $40 a barrel market see it above $150 a barrel. we have two very extreme outcomes. And in my conversations um throughout the world with the US government, all that to me, everybody has to recognize it's there's not going to be an outcome that's somewhere in the middle. It's going to either be two extremes. Is

### [15:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=900s) Segment 4 (15:00 - 20:00)

Iran a country that can be accepted by the international community? Can Iran be a country that participates in the world? again. And if that outcome occurred, then you could have the Iranian oil back into the marketplace alongside what the growth of the Venezuelan oil and you could paint a picture where oil prices could be lower than they were prior to the Iranian war. If there's a cessation of war and yet Iran remains a threat, a threat to trade, a threat to the straits of Harmuth, then I would argue then we could have years of, you know, above $100, closer to $150 oil. — What happens to the global economy? If that happens, how do we see it? — We'll have global recession. — The US is essentially energy independent. Should countries other countries including — this is super important because the Iran war it's it's not going to go anywhere. It's uh actually crazy how much you know back and forth but it's all fake. Every day US has won the war. We discussed it yesterday the day before that. And the reason we keep coming back to all of these geopolitics is the oil chart is the most important charts in the world. Like we look at charts. We don't look at the news. People who look at the news, they get wrecked because they just saw Trump say that the war is over five times. They read five news. It's all they won the war. They won the you know they win every day. But you see the chart man. The chart is showing that oil is up. Oil up means stock chart down. So we can see clear correlation. So this is why uh yeah we really need to look at the chart of oil guys. And uh whatever is happening in the world if it affects the chart of oil which it does currently it does matter. That's how you know whether news matters or not. It needs to be confirmed by the chart. Uh let's listen to this. Who is this guy? Uh the US senator. Let's see. Here's the problem. The straight was open before the war began. We are now seeking to solve a problem that we created. This is insanity. $2 billion is a lot of money. That's the minimum amount of money that is being spent every single day on this war. There are — over a dozen. It's going to be interesting to see the midterms how the political landscape is going to reframe itself if it will if it won't because there are many questions. I mean what else going on? There are many questions such as what this guy was saying. Now let's switch gears a bit. Of course we have a we have a encaps we have encapsulated the core z here. Look at oil, look at the stocks. Many stocks are actually very cheap. Uh looking at the Microsoft in particular, but others if they go to 200E moving average guys, you know that you know if you have money in your retirement, whatever it's is good, including Bitcoin. Bitcoin at the 200 week or below, fantastic. I mean, anything that is quality that you think is not going to die out in the coming uh year, two years, 5 years, at 200 week, man. It's ship is ship. can still go lower. That's why you use risk management. If you know mechanical rules, great. You lad in fantastic and you have a long-term view. Now look here. Look looking at Google. They are preparing for postquantum. This is super important. They are moving all kinds of uh technologies when it comes to Android for example to postquantum. They have a timeline until 2029 to migrate everything to postquantum as to postquantum cryptography. uh and uh they are very ambitious like with their quantum timeline they're very ambitious this is in contrast to bitcoin like bitcoin devs really need to focus on quantum I keep repeating it sometimes it's interesting I've been in a few discussions with bitcoin maxis who say that I'm propagating fad you know they say I'm propagating fad and the fact that um cloudflare google and other tech companies are working with quantum they say that oh it's to make you scared you know it's to it's part of the plan to make you scared. worry. Like it really literally does not make sense to me. But that's the kind of things that I've been hearing that oh Ian why are you repeating the normy talking points that quantum is bad because I mean apparently Google and Cloudflare according to Bitcoin maxi logic they are trying to create FUD and uh that quantum is not real. So yeah anyway so uh what can we see here? Heath is actually a bit better positioned. If you want to learn more about the Bitcoin quantum issues, go and follow Nick Carter because he speaks about it quite a lot and he's saying that uh all of the crypto projects that want to remain long-term need to be agnostic when it comes to cryptography. What does he mean by that? He means that whatever threat arises, it's good to be able to change the cryptography that is used.

### [20:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=1200s) Segment 5 (20:00 - 25:00)

And this is what he may what he means here that we need to bake in cryptographic mutability into the networks. He argues that there will be a need for an entire reimagining of how the systems these systems work and that today cryptography is hardcoded in. Exactly. This is very important that uh as soon as you have quantum threat growing and becoming more important, we just won't have time at that point. We need to start preparing now and uh be ready. So he's saying that if people have already figured this out, everyone else seems to be petrified in fear. Unless something changes quickly, if Bit chart will start to reflect the divergence in prioritization. Okay, maybe that's a bit far that if BTC charts is going to reflect that, I don't think so. But let's see. Let's see. I mean that that's a bit too far that you know that's it will not reflect any just zoom out. any. Okay, it cannot get above and now it even gets rejected uh here at the 50 week. So it's bad trend. It had a bit of a bull here since last year uh for a few weeks then got absolutely destroyed. So ETH is very bad price very bad. Vitalic dumped like everyone ETH foundation dumping. So let's not get that far. You know that ETH is going to somehow outperform Bitcoin based on the quantum uh because there is no signs of that. Of course, we can speculate maybe it's going to be like that in the future. For now, it literally is rejected by the FC week by the yellow line as you can see. Uh but he what he's saying is true that um the quantum threat I think is very real. It needs to be taken seriously and uh Bitcoin really needs to focus. I don't see them focusing too much and that's uh in my mind in my humble opinion no bueno. It is no bueno. Uh now we have to speak about hyperlquid guys because hyperlquid uh is a coin which has fantastic product market fit. It's about trading. It is now in new bull trend. Let's see if it can for how long it is going to run because Bitcoin is in bare trend. But uh as you know shortterm you can trade coins in bull trend in the even in the bare market. But as soon as they're bare you have to be careful you have to get out. Uh but see people ask me hey Ivan so should I buy Tao or should I buy hyperlquid and again looking at the trends just follow the trend like you can trade anything but what I like the reason why I like hyperlquid more is because the use case is super clear is crypto is traing and people will always be trading with you know there is subnet this subnet that it's yeah it's could be for guys could be not for guys this and that uh it's not something that the average joe in crypto users or you know average person outside of crypto users. That being said, it's also in a bull trend now especially if it closes the week. So you can speculate on the short term but overall hype is a bit closer to me just from an understanding perspective especially now that we have the oil like literally the oil markets are now moving to hyperlquid. Also guys we cannot look past the insider trading use case which is massive. It's massive. uh everyone who has some kind of information about the stock market can now anonymously trade on hyperlid. I'm not endorsing that. I'm not saying it's good but it is bringing a lot of uh liquidity, a lot of volume and so on so forth like this insider trading use case for hyperlid it's uh is bringing quite some adoption quite some adoption. Now will they get in trouble for it? I mean who the hell knows that's a big question. They have a website where people can insider trade the crap out of anything whether it's oil, whether it is S&P 500. If you know Trump, you can uh you can become literally billionaire. Okay. Trading on hyperlquid. So from that perspective, just what the coin does, the use case of trading freaking stock market anonymously like it's such a massive thing if you compare to Tao. Again, I mean, I love AI. I love the idea this and that, but at the same time, are you going to be using Tao? Like, who's using it? It's the risk is just too big for this fugazi poop sandwich that most crypto projects are where, you know, oh, it's RWA or you know, they BS this and that and then what happens? No one cares. And uh it's an exit pump. That being said, Jason Kalakani said it's going to go do 200x. I have written it down. Let's see if it does 200x. And if Jason Kalakani's shill is correct. So listen to this. When it comes to uh oil being now primarily traded on hyperlquid more and more, listen to this. — Uh 24/7 tokenized trading uh growth like uh is this something that you think is an accelerant to um bringing new assets on chain, trading on chain? How do you reason about the like this trend and then like investing into this kind of inevitability it feels like?

### [25:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=1500s) Segment 6 (25:00 - 30:00)

— Well, I remember sitting down with you guys D like in Brooklyn. — Yeah. Um I told you guys I was long volatility. — Yeah. I continue to be long ball. So how do you express that thesis? You want like crypto sits at that intersection. Young generations want to trade. They want to trade all the time. Uh prediction markets are just one expression of that, right? The second to that is when you say we've always had this like 24/7 365 uh DeFi market but the reality is not everyone wants to trade your tokens but they want to trade commodities cuz they see Stan Droen Miller go up and say you got to long copper uh and then silver did what it did a couple months ago uh and now oil is front and center given geopolitical tension. So Hyperlid has just become that venue and I haven't seen the numbers but I'd be really curious. So I could probably say the amount of volume that's coming in there's like now over 1. 3 billion of open interest on commodities after — super impressive. I think that 10 10x or 100x in a year. — Um but it's not your tokens like people want to go long these things. — So I you guys probably heard me say I was sitting in a room over the weekend when the war broke out and a lot of these PMs some of the smartest macro guys were like I was just sitting in a lunch and they're all pontificating, oh you know what's Monday going to look like? I'm like what are you talking about dude? like, "Have you heard about Hyperliquid? " They're like, "Hyper, what? " Pull up my phone, look at the chart, like stocks already at 86 bucks, — right? — And they're like, "Holy shit. " — Yeah. — And I've only ever felt that with stable coins like 6 years ago. — Yeah. — Where when I was fundraising back in the day for DeFi when before DeFi was a thing and I would convert like everyone was like, "You're going to invest in what? " I'm like, "Defi. " And like we don't understand what that is. Like go — guys, everything is moving on chain. Hyperlid is going to capture a lot of that. And to an extent this is a bit bearish Solana because this is the kind of stuff that Solana should was supposed to have. So in the next bull market we need to re-evaluate like who is the NASDAQ here. Okay. Who is the decentralized NASDAQ? Let's move let me move out the this you guys love this uh cyber schlong but uh I cannot use it. I don't understand how you know how it's going to work here with the sound. So we we're going to put it there. So what were we Oh yeah. Hyperlquid. I liquid liquid. So, uh, let me play you another one. Very important. Listen to this. — Correctional price of crude oil. Better than any dated future that you have on the CME or ice. It's really amazing. Hyperlid's got that. — Why is that? Why is that structure preferential? — Um, because you don't want to have to roll your futures. It's an annoyance, right? And per give you the same kind of leverage straight away and you can just bet up or down on the front month without really, you know, needing to worry about expiry or rolling or the nuances of uh when to roll physical delivery financial versus physical settle. All that nonsense is out the window at Perks. However, um in order for Hyperlid to really take off for commodities, they're going to have to add it. they're gonna have to up their dated futures game because those times — so for Sudan actually this development is slightly bearish if not quite bearish. So again for next bull market if we see Wall Street actually choosing hyperlquid for all of their stuff uh then okay the question is what happened to NASDAQ on Solana. So they I think Sana really have to step up their game. I did see something they published let's see what was it the it has some kind of technical thing that they did. The problem with Hyperlid is that it is centralized. I mean it's more centralized than way like way more centralized than Salana. So that's one weakness they have. So Salana is trying to do basically what Hyperlid has done faster but they're doing it uh decentralized. You have here Salana is the number one network for RWA lending. But I mean the problem is no one gives a f you know people want this. People want trade. They want trade oil trade S&P. Oh yeah. This is what they did. I actually haven't watched it. Let's see. There's some updates from Solana that came yesterday. Uh let's play it. — Developers are willing to endure a lot of pain if there's a big enough prize waiting on the other side. — I'm Brennan, CEO of Anza. You may know us for our greatest hit, the Agave client, which powers the Salana network. Constellation is the guys. I I don't want to play the sound because I don't know if it's a copyright or whatever. But anyway, constellation trading engine this and that is going to be order. Yeah. So, this thing better get — in a single — better get all of the trading from the hyperlquid because hyperlquid is stealing the lanch constellation replaces today's single leader monopoly. Yeah, just get hyperlquid. Where's the hyperlquid alternative? Okay, that's the main question that everyone has to ask. where is on Solana the hyperl liquid alternative and what's the strategy here because and also prediction market like literally if I'm to be bare soul for a second here uh

### [30:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=1800s) Segment 7 (30:00 - 35:00)

during the last maybe 6 to 8 months the growth of poly market has been crazy I mean you now look everyone looks at poly market for any news is poly market and that one is not on salana and then also the hyperlquid during the last 6 to 8 months the growth has crazy because everyone is trading now non-crypto assets on hyperlquid oil S&P 500 and that's also not on Salana. So I think for Saul it's very important to look the reality in the eye here and that uh it is falling behind. Uh it's a great tech general purpose platform. Yeah but why where is hyper liquid and sold? So as Bitcoin goes into new bull trend all of this we'll have to consider all of this. We're going to see which charts have the best uh trends, the strongest trends in the price and uh and we need to adapt uh the long-term vision based on the user usage and adoption and all of that. Um so guys, let's go to Q&A. While you are thinking about uh questions, uh let me tell you about number one, booming. com. Go there, watch the free training, sign up for a strategy call if you want us to go through your trading uh after you watch the video and see how we can help with our tools and u our mechanical rules. That's number one. Number two, go to bullme. com/partners. Here is where we have negotiated with all of the different exchanges. Great signup bonuses for our audience. Use the link below. The signup bonuses are bigger now in the bear than in the bull. So click as soon as possible. You have a buy bit. This is the best if you're if you don't have BBIT because they have everything. I mean literally everything from spot to pers to bank account coming soon to debit card. I mean everything. Pionex for bots best bot platform. Uh weeks is like buy bit but lower KYC. The same with Bit Unix. So if you want low KYC that's for you. And on this note let's go to Q&A. And guys the book coming any day. I know it's been coming any day for many days but it is really any day. And to get alerted first, sign up for the newsletter in the description below. We're in the final final stretch. But everyone who's done any project from start to finish knows that is always the like the last freaking part that takes the longest. If you've done any tech, like project including the book, okay, book has been done long time ago, but no to get every like the last last uh or is always the longest. So yeah, we're soon done with the platform to sell it to with everything. So yeah, it's soon there. Um, okay, let's go to Q&A, guys. And big shout out to Matt for being the moderator today. And by the way, big shout out to everyone here. It's another stream. It's so fun to be here every day is fantastic, guys. Big shout out and thanks a lot for joining us every day here. So uh Akmed Habibi, what's happening? perspective. Ivan, the US just crossed 39 trillion in national debt. That's very big. Now they pay one trillion per year only on interest payment. Yeah, that has been like that for a long time. Exactly. Crazy. Bitcoin is inevitable. Yeah, 100%. I mean, all fiat goes to zero. But here's the problem with that. There is from a fiat perspective, like you say, also there's just no other alternative. And uh the markets they still don't understand that Bitcoin is inevitable because we trade as uh Salesforce. By the way, let me check Salesforce while I'm speaking about Salesforce. Guys, Bitcoin trades like IGV index now. And there is, you know, we cannot fight the market uh without being in a bull trend. We need to we need a bull trend. But Bitcoin trades like this. It's IGV text basically tech sector ETF. If you overlay this on Bitcoin, I've done it a few times, but maybe we have some new viewer here. If you look at the IGV and then you overlay Bitcoin, you see it's exact, man. I mean, it's we are tech talk. Bitcoin is tech talk. So, the market can stay rational more than you can stay liquid. And even though the uh it's a bit of a Ponzi with the debt, but you know, you look at all countries, everyone loves the Ponzi. Why is it why does it take so long time for the US and the dollar to change or you know for some kind of new system to be established? Because there is no better Ponzi. Everyone loves the US Ponzi because US Ponzi pro promises in the stock market approximately 10% per year on average in S&P 500. With US debt you get 5% per year just uh not stocks just bonds. And look at the world. Look at uh Russia. Look at China. Look at uh Venezuela. Uh most world they still want to leave their country.

### [35:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=2100s) Segment 8 (35:00 - 40:00)

Chinese they go through Hong Kong to put money in the US Ponzi. Um all of the other regimes like including Iran I'm sure to a big extent as well. Like you want to get your money out from your local country and then put it in the US Ponzi. Okay. in because that's imagine yourself being like Chinese politician. You have you have a bit of profit. you know you somehow you got a bit of profit. Officially your salary is $100. Okay. But you're in China. So you have $100 million. I don't know how it happened but somehow it happened. You're thinking, man, how the hell I get this $100 million? How I get it? You need to get it out of China. Okay, fast. And what they do, they go via Hong Kong. They put it in uh real estate or you know US stocks or the western world mainly US because US is outperforming European stock and uh and so forth. So the S&P is the money parking for the whole world. So when people say no it's going to collapse this and that okay where to where is going to collapse? For it to collapse like you need an alternative. There is no alternative. What is the alternative? Um, Bitcoin should be an alternative, but clearly the market doesn't understand it yet. Should the market understand it? Will we see a, you know, trend change? Okay, great. Now, we just need to see that Bitcoin is trading more as a text. I mean, it is what it is. So, from that perspective, uh, this Ponzi can go on for I mean for a long time and it can go for decades. At some point, I guess it's going to stop at some point, but uh, currently there's no alternative. gold is not alternative like people say Peter shift says gold it's not going to work it's not working um it is the bonds and the S&P which is which are the main money parking spots in the world and I think the way that they may decrease in relevance is just long term and slowly they're going to decrease slowly slowly let let's say now we have people are speaking about the world becoming multipolar we're going to have a multipolar world. Okay. So maybe in a few decades is more interpolarity but for that you need other alternatives. Where is the Russian stock market and uh how much does it give me and will I be able to withdraw my money? Okay, that's a good question. That's a very good question and the answer is there's not too much there. There's like a few stocks and uh also Russia is not uh compatible with the world payment system. So you can yeah how you going to transfer money out? get it in? you know the politically not stable in terms of assets like is it your assets or it's not your assets a big question maybe it's your own paper today tomorrow it's not your here are some stocks on the Russian stock market as you can see it's a it means only domestic ones you see the banks burb bankfrom and so on so forth yeah I mean it's like energy most of it is energy no one is listing on Russian stock exchange like Let's say you are a company from I mean even the region let's say you're a company from Lithuania you want to go to a big stock market list on you're not going to go to Russia so it's not a financial center okay you're going to go to China no you're not so this is the problem where and so the US is the only international money hub where the whole world elites important elites from the whole world put their money, no matter how nationalistic they seem on TV, they say we're the best. Our country is the best. They don't like the US on their national TV. I can assure you their money is in a good place. And by the way, that's how the English, this is fascinating. Like I love this topic. The English actually uh pioneered this uh this system. How did English pioneer this system with the Bank of England? Basically the reason why the English Empire got so big and so strong is because they made deals with local elites coming to a new territory. Make deal with local elite telling them listen put your money in Bank of England. You are safe. You are now incentivized to help us. We have good economic growth. Look at our great empire. So the local elites in the jungle where they are. Sorry guys. the political correct. Okay, but you understand. Okay, let me put uh the money in the Bank of England. It's safe. I feel safe now. I feel safe because today I'm elite. Maybe tomorrow I'm homeless. But now my money is in Bank of England. Uh and uh it feels great. Now I also I'm kind of incentivized to help the UK. That's how England became Bank of England became a

### [40:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=2400s) Segment 9 (40:00 - 45:00)

international hub for money. Okay. The same thing now is with the US is very much exact. So at some point it can of course change UK they uh gave the US the leadership will something similar change it could but what is that alternative going to be cure starmer no it's not going to be UK what is I just don't see anything else so let me guess know what you think but um this is the problem with being too bearish US dollar being too bearish uh US equities being too bearish US uh debt which is I mean theoretically is it Ponzi I mean I guess so but everyone keeps putting money there. So literally the whole world um that's why if you are bearish dollar it's very it's been no smart and I've been there like the reason I'm telling you it so passionately is because I've been there thinking that the dollar is going to hyperinflate. I've lost out on a lot of gains. I've also lost out on many opportunities in the market by thinking that you know you think dollar is going to hyperinflate so you buy gold goes down freaking 30% or what it did from the top. Many people did that literally a few months ago. ago they did that. We said dollar is not going to hyperinflate. Okay, this is what happened. Most people are like, "Holy [ __ ] dollar is hyperinflating from this top. " Uh so let me lose 20% in uh in gold and in silver they lost 50%. Happens a lot. A lot a lot. Uh we said dollar is not going to hyperinflate. Lol. It's not happening. No, it's not going to be like this. Is it going to be slow erosion? Yeah. But uh still there is no other alternative for um uh yeah for uh 10% per year yield. You can say it's ponzi but yeah it's infinite ponzi because the whole world is propping it up. So anyway, I hope that makes sense and it's a very important understanding. after big profits maybe I'll need to I I'm gonna write big ponzi about it because people need to there's a lot of you know this misconception this um yeah it's a lot of people don't understand oh it's a vimemer republic dollar is vimer it's not now okay not now Ivan I have to thank you sometime in 2017 I saw one of your videos you said you should buy three bitcoin on 33 fantastic thank you so much for that you're welcome you're very welcome that's very So if you have three Bitcoin and 30 two ETH from 2017, very nice. Are you still going to buy sol at 30? That's the target. Will it hit or not hit? I mean, listen, we're speculating. I think the I mean, nothing has changed. Actually, the chart looks how we want it. Bam. And the rejection rejection. You have this bare flag upward sloping in a bare trend is bearish. So nothing has changed. It's quite exact. Oh, you mean with the recent Hyperlid may news. Yeah, I'm still gonna buy a Thursday, guys. Even if Sana is not beating Hyperlid, I'm still is too cheap. It's too cheap. Maybe the meme casino is going to come back. So, uh it's is going to be the leader still in the meme casino. But, um uh Sana is still a good buy even if uh they're losing to Hyperlid and Poly Market. It's quite crazy actually. I think who whoever is watching this from Sana man you got to fix it got to fix hyperlquid and poly market where is Sana alternative and why is it not big that's what she said okay I can we buy your book in Belgium now so our book is only going to be on our website we do no middleman only on our website that's why it takes a bit of time because we need to I have an idea how I want it with the website and everything so it it's going to be there And if you buy early, we will include a free implementation call because I mean the last thing I want to do is to for you guys to buy the book and then you know you think it's interesting is great. It's very I mean it is very interesting but um we will also include a free implementation call. So if you want you can speak with our team how to implement all the learnings. So we're going to have a system there I because you know I sell on um let's say we sell on Amazon or whatever. Uh yeah, we don't know how to we don't have any contact like you know it's uh it's that's a scam like Amazon in many cases is a scam. You bring your product what happens? They steal your client then they copy your product. Jeff Bezos is going to write big gains as his book you know he's going to replace my product. It happens a lot. So yeah. No, we're not going to go to Amazon. any middleman. only on our own homemade homegrown websites and be very nice. Uh I mean, oh yeah, we you already asked that. Um if the meme uh

### [45:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=2700s) Segment 10 (45:00 - 50:00)

I understand I'm also a comic book maker. That's awesome. How you make the comic book? You draw it by hand or how you do it? How you do the comic book? I mean comic book is fantastic. Fantastic, man. It's about Vitalic or what is about the ETH about crypto? Uh guys, we will have a massive crash until midappril or July. Well, I mean, it's all relative, man. It's all relative. Uh today, people think that if we go to let's say, you know, here in the buy zone, maybe 50K, maybe 60, you know, maybe 45K. today it sounds like a mega crash but it's all relative because what when we arrive there people gonna say yeah it was expected or something you know it's u what do I mean by I mean what I mean here is that we discussed it yesterday I think you remember this mega crash in October you remember October 10th oh my god October 10th this is how it looked like looking at it now it's like a walk in the park like nothing even happened to me it's just intraday volatility you remember oto October 10th. OH MY GOD, EVERYTHING IS CRASHING ON OCTOBER 10TH. BUT NOW you look at it, it's like it's nothing in comparison to what happened. And by the way, as you remember, we became bearish on October 8th. Okay, You can go to bulling. com/ivan. You can read all about it here for my track record. But now what has happened now? It's such a big collapse. But it doesn't feel like that. People like, oh no, you know, people still debating that. Oh no, you Ivan, you don't understand. I mean, I have no words. But, you know, the confidence people have, they're like, "Oh, no, Ian, you don't understand. You don't understand. " I mean, who not speaking to you guys, but you know, to that guy, like, I mean, literally, who the f ARE YOU? NO, I YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND. You don't. YOUR ANALYSIS IS WRONG. SO, even though like, you know, we have gone down so much. Back to your question, back to your statement about the collapse. Like literally you had such a big like you were wrong all the time but still confident you know still the positivity still the you know the ideas. It's like nothing has happened. This what I mean there is relative. Yes. I mean let's say we go to 50 60. I mean most people they still going to say oh no Ian you're wrong. You're wrong. And then when we play bullish I guess that's when they're going to be bearish. Oh yeah yeah. So, um, we do expect us to go into the buy zone, but I don't think it's going to be like mega crash in all coins. Potentially in Bitcoin, it's just, you know, go into the buy zone, find the bottom there. Great. That's it. Um, what real security or speed or centralization on ETH? Why special besides when meme and bull pump all other time? What do you mean? Uh, what real security or speed or centralization on ETH? I don't really question but e is uh yeah I mean it doesn't have too much like us usage maybe that's why it didn't really go to alltime high properly it went like fake alltime high did $100 alltime high so it's uh I don't understand what you ask are you bearish or like what's your statement uh I just arrived in Vegas should I gamble away don't gamble respect your money. Always respect your money. Even if you lost a lot, many people they lose a lot in altcoins or in other investments and then whatever money they have left, they disrespect it. They're like, "Oh, let me leave it. " You know, it's down so much anyway. Let me just close. Respect the money, man. Because it's you have money, you can make something from it. You don't have it. Uh it's always, you know, with capital, it's always the cold start problem. You probably have heard that making the first million is the most difficult and then the other ones are easier and easier. Well, I mean you say that for a reason because it's true with you know the first one is super hard because you have no flywheel like you start from zero it's no you cannot get yield I remember when I was a pleb in the Swedish ghetto which I explained here it was very diverse game I lived in a very diverse place people say oh it's so diverse it's so great diversity man this was very bad you don't want to live there uh I explain a bit here you know when you are plebbe I I have by the way I have some pictures from my childhood also some pictures from Bellarus here as well but anyway when you are big plebbe you look at the you don't even understand like you don't have the capacity to understand how finance works okay because your brain cannot comprehend how can 5% per year be amazing because that's how the whole you know look at the bonds US bonds you get 5% it's like amazing or that you know stock

### [50:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=3000s) Segment 11 (50:00 - 55:00)

market yields you 10% per year how can that be amazing because if you're homeless or in the ghetto 10% for you man it's like a chewing gum you know if your whole net worth is 10 chewing gums you don't understand like what do you mean I get one more chewing gum per okay it's when you have small amount like any yield like anything is it's it's meaningless so that's why with capital you always have this cold start you need money man you need money you might be my Oh, Akmed Habibi. No comment. No Ivan, what's your hype bear target? Uh this one I can comment. Let's see. Uh the bear. I mean, we don't really look at targets, man. Uh that that's number one. Let me just see how it looks now. I think that the bare target is that it comes back here to this yellow line and retests it right now. Like let's say the trend uh goes down then that would be it. Uh but as you know we don't have any like you know longer like macro macro targets because that that's not uh it does make sense to have them. What makes sense is to be early in a new trend like now for example it's a new bull trend so you can speculate and then you can look at more of the you know intermediary uh resistances and supports like here for example is going to be resistance and uh on the downside I mean you have this as support so just keep it simple keep it here and here trying to guess like mega macro top or macro bottom don't worry too much about that let's say should we break this one okay next one is here so just like that We because we simply don't know. Like no one knows. We need to see how many bulls step in here. Here's what we don't know. Like we just don't know how many people at $20 think that it's freaking cheap and amazing. We don't know. Okay. So maybe then at $10 they're going to find it cheap and amazing. Uh is that those things are impossible to know. We just need to know that what trend it is so we can be risk riskoff and then we can see how it deals with the different uh different levels and different levels unlock each other. So for example, if you look at Suie, big shout out to all uh very bad, very very bare trend. See, bulls haven't really stepped in anywhere. I mean, they lost all of the Now they have a level here below as next support. Let's see if enough bulls step in here. Maybe they're going to step in here. How much they lost from the top? From the top, they lost 82%. 82% from the top. And uh yeah, can go another can go all the way down here to 90 until the next sports. Yeah, that's how that is. Uh I mean, do you see yourself living in the US for the long term? No. No. Oh my god. No. No. No. Too high tax, man. No. No. No. Given that the capital markets there well I mean to buy S&P you don't have to be in New York at Wall Street you can I mean nowadays you can buy it in freaking hyperlid any international uh brokerage you can be anywhere in the world I mean guys the US it's not good for tax it's very bad it's uh yeah it's bad I would stay away uh I mean depends on what you do uh if you can be international US is um it's not favor like I don't see any what the US should do is to have special tax regime you get zero tax like non-dom like UK had uh that would be amazing uh and then uh I mean safety is another big question because uh you know there was a lot of this uh focus on Dubai that you know it's unsafe the Iranian drone but then actually during the same night It was uh like five m mass shootings somewhere in the US. So another like but no one speaks about that because it's so common. So safety is a is a big question. But I love US overall. I mean US overall is fantastic to come and visit is fantastic. To be tax resident, no no big no no. There are too many zero or close to zero locations in the world. Like it's way too the options are just too good. But I mean you can still participate in the songs. You can still participate. So yeah, you don't need to be there physically. But depends on what you do man. If you do AI startup, maybe it makes sense. Let's say that I have uh a friend or you know you have a child that wants to do startup. US is best. US is best or AI or anything because then

### [55:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=3300s) Segment 12 (55:00 - 60:00)

you don't care about tax. Okay? You don't care too much about tax. Or if you do startup like you say you want to be an entrepreneur you want to do startup tech startup going to Silicon Valley makes perfect sense uh because you don't care about tax you get investment from VC whatever tax you have to pay on payroll you don't care like it's VC money anyway you raise more like and then uh if it be you become a billionaire so the way it works with VC is either you become a billionaire or you lost five years of your life for uh for experience I guess but if you become a billionaire okay you have to pay exit tax because you don't want to be a billionaire like longterm in California. You don't want that. Uh you want you need to exit. So okay, you pay an exit tax. I don't know how much it is, but u you're I mean you made it anyway. So uh yeah, in that sense maybe it makes sense. Uh the most capital is in the US if you're raising but if you are in crypto let's say you don't need that in crypto you can raise crypto is too international. All of this like tech specific AI is uh yeah it's too much Silicon Valley concentrated still. Still yeah I guess if you're a Chinese you could go to China but if you're westerner you're going to go to China to the startup you're not China too. Sorry. What's your end goal in life? Ahmed with a deep question. What beyond the materialistic? Yeah I mean that's a good question. the meaning of life of meaning of life what we g I think as long as there is something to do interesting every day learn something interesting every day to have some kind of goal interesting every day uh that's the goal I think that's that that's a state that I like people say oh no I mean you need to spend more time doing this or that like some people say oh no I want to work and then I'm only with the family but I don't know man like you're only with the family okay I mean it's fun in the beginning But then okay, you're only with the family. It's uh you need the you need a journey and otherwise you are uh you are castrate. You want to castrate yourself. I mean you always need a journey uh as a I mean as a male. Okay. You need a journey journey. People say oh you know it's my you're myoggenic mog. I don't care man. Okay. You need a journey. Well you going to you just going to be in the sandbox all the time. It's it's great. I mean it's great. It's important. It's very important. That's why you know trading being uh close to home from home is great but you always need a journey. So I think that's I mean I don't know but you need a journey that's it. I I feel the most happest when I'm on a mission there is a journey. I am not forced to do anything. It's very important you can control your time fully. That's very important. You control your life your time fully. And uh yeah uh but is that like the end? You know you ask such a big question. I have no clue man. I I can I tell you what's I don't know. I'm not Socrates. I'm not uh Homer. I'm not Aristotle. But as long as you control your time, do what the hell you want and you can choose to go and journey, whether it is business journey, maybe it is athletic journey, you spend time with who you want. Uh great. Okay. Great. You do what the hell you want. That's fantastic. And it's different for everyone. Like that's the thing. It's so different. It's very hard to give any advice on this. Okay. But you know whatever works for you maybe doesn't work for me or vice versa. For example, some people they u they have different priorities and it's uh yeah I I think as long as you can control your time, you have money, you can figure it out. It's different for everyone. Freedom. Exactly. Freedom. You always need freedom. The last thing you want is to for example, you need to be on freaking calls every uh you know you need to be on meeting that would be bad. That would be very bad. So yeah, let me know what you guys think. We have many wise uh chat participants participators in the chat. So you guys can probably give some more color to this uh question. Has Ivan reminded his audience when he started to d Yeah. Yes. Lucky. It's a collaborate. Exactly. Yo, Lucky, look like you're still in Hex. Your picture looks Will you ever disappear from YouTube? Let's see. I mean, as long as there is interest in what I do, I have motivation. as long as you guys watch, I I'm motivated to be here. So, uh yeah, I mean it's very fun to do YouTube. You say I how you can be in bare market on YouTube. It's very fun. I

### [1:00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=3600s) Segment 13 (60:00 - 65:00)

mean, we sit here with the with you guys, we have morning discussions, we have Q&A. It's fantastic. It's very fun. Um so, as long as you guys watch, I do video, you guys watch. Fantastic. What are your thoughts about owning Tesla stock? Uh, let's check it. As far as I remember, it had a bit more to fall last time we checked it. Now, guys, listen. I don't know if you asked me about their like Optimus. What the hell are they going to do? I'm I, you know, I'm trend focused. Whether they're going to do the Optimus, Optimus is going to cure cancer, you know, all of that. That's uh there are other channels like being the fanboy. Uh, we're more practical here. Now it is bare trend. It has a bit of support here. Uh yeah, should it lose it guys can easily drop here to 350 sorry 3 320 uh or get support here. So all in all if you want to have a nice riskreward join new bull trend but it it's now in bearish and quite strong one without any sideways. So in terms of buy zones, uh this moving average and I would start buying a bit here as well. Like if you don't have Tesla, this is this would be my plan. But you know, whether you know they're going to be uh Optimus is going to come, it's going to cure cancer, you know, all of the uh fanboy stuff. I mean, it's fine. Like it's great. It's just that, you know, it the chart needs to agree. Currently, it does not agree. the chart does not like currently uh what's happening and it's also a very expensive company. Uh it's super expensive. It's always been expensive to be fair. Tesla is always expensive and through time it gets more expensive. So uh yeah that would be my game plan with it. I have an Nvidia on NASDAQ is already in Brendan. Check that. Let me see. Don't I have NASDAQ? I have NASDAQ. Exactly. H maybe before we clicked another one in my saved. I have this one. Okay. Maybe we clicked another one. Yeah, exactly. It isn't bad ch looked at another one earlier in the stream. Uh yeah. So it did enter has a bit of support here but I think we ah yeah I mean we can easily go here guys. Should we go here the whole stock market is going to take a nose dive. Boop. But not going to be for long. likely going to find either bottom here or if the war and oil price keeps going up then this here then we have this uh let's see how rare it is for Nvidia to go to 200 last time was in 2022 and then yeah 2019 here would be insane if we can get Nvidia to 200 save a bit of cash on the sideline guys because buying it at two 200 week moving average is going to be crazy. That opportunity is u yeah it's going to be the first time since 2022 and it can easily get here. Uh more likely to get support here at 100 but yeah can easily get here. If war escalates this and that things fall fast even if they're big how much it has to fall 50%. It can do that. Microsoft. Look at how much Microsoft fell from the peak is down now like 40%. See, okay, 30 33. Uh, and it just wants to go lower. Let's see where it finds a bottom. But, um, yeah, 200 week would be very nice. But don't count on that. Uh, can easily get support here at 100. But bare trend is bare trend. Here it got support at 100. Uh, here it was 200. Here, here it was 100. 200 but looking too much back doesn't make sense because now it's AI you know it's a kind of different uh it has a different role but a bubble also can pop so we just need to watch the trend and adapt to the trend and we have a new trend is bearish that's it speculating on no a bubble popping this not you can do that endlessly many people going to lose a lot of money by thinking that a bubble popped but it didn't pop because the trend is bullish but now actually it makes more sense Now the trend is bearish. Now we can discuss a bit more whether a bubble has popped because it's bearish man. And not only is it bearish actually there is a loss of o yeah this one

### [1:05:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHYBX2_NfvU&t=3900s) Segment 14 (65:00 - 65:00)

is uh this one is very significant. You see this horizontal support since August. of year-long support and also okay now the more I look at it also a bit of head and shoulder and you have a clear path here to 100 week at least okay Trump getting impeached 73% on poly market yeah let's see with the midterms I guess they need the midterm still hasn't been too much about Trump impeachment I guess because they don't have the power the Democrats guys listen thanks all for being here. Thanks a lot for contributing to the chat with great questions, great discussions. Was very fun. As always, we're going to be back tomorrow. Enjoy your Thursday. Enjoy Thursday. Go to booming. com. Go to booming. com/partners for exchanges. And goodbye, guys. Goodbye. Goodbye. Smash up the like. Passable.

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*Источник: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/35517*