# 2023 Retail Year-End Recap ## Метаданные - **Канал:** Retailgeek - **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtfEIlHJFlg ## Содержание ### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtfEIlHJFlg) Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00) hey it's Jason retail geek Goldberg I'm in Time Square in the heart of New York City the NRF Big Show has just L out New York seen its first snowfall in over 700 days and the US Department of Commerce has just put out the retail sales sensus data for December so we finally have a complete look of what all of 2023 did from a retail standpoint want to know how it turned out let's jump right into oh that is much better oh that was New York is cold so how did 2023 come out well we sold 7. 25 trillion dollar worth of stuff that's a little over a quarter of the GDP and that's all of retail so everything except for restaurants on an annualized basis that was 2. 1% more stuff than we sold last year and it was 34% more stuff than we sold during the pandemic but a lot of economists and the national retail Federation like to focus on this number we call Core retail where we take gasoline and Automotive out of the number as well we take gas out because it's very volatile people like to take Automotive out because it's a big number it has a different sales model I'm not sure I agree with that but uh for purposes of Apples to Apples numbers we'll focus on this core retail number and based on core retail we sold $5 trillion worth of stuff last year that would be a 3. 5% growth over 2022 it's a 37% growth over 2019 so is 3. 5% growth good well if we go back the last 27 years in retail before the pandemic you'll see that we clip along at a little over 4% growth every year we have some years that are a little better worse we had that recession in 2009 uh but on average retail grew at 4. 1% a year this core number and so then the pandemic happened and we had the three greatest years in the history of retail we more than doubled the industry average every year we blew it away of course in 2021 and so now we're all eager to see what 2023 comes out and before the year began the national retail Federation put out their forecast they were forecasting 4 to 6% growth this year so that would be better than the industry average it would not be as good as the last 3 years and where did the number really come out well it came out at that 3. 5% so again below industry average below the nrf's forecast for the year so overall I say we would have to call this a disappointing year um in the aggregate but it's really important to think about the context of all these numbers so the way I like to look at is to stack the year over-year years so if you think about 2019 that was the last traditional year of retail sales we had before Co and this is the shape of what almost every year in retail looks like with that Spike around holiday and some es and flows based on these T pole events like back to school and uh summer coming into play and so then 2020 happened right and it started out very normal but you'll remember in March the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic which we all ignore but 2 weeks later the National Basketball Association canel their season we all panicked and retail sales took this huge dip in April and pretty quickly recovered because 2020 was still higher year than 2019 in spite of that huge pandemic induced dip so after getting through 2020 we were all curious to see what would happen in 2021 and the answer is that when we mail trillion dollar in economic stimulus and we don't let consumers spend any of that on travel or entertainment we have a phenomenal year so that 2021 was the greatest year we've had in the history of retail at least in the last 30 years and at the end of that year I was giving a lot of retailers Sound Advice like retire right now there's no way we're going to comp against these monster numbers in 2021 um and as per usual most of my smartest friends didn't take my advice they stuck with their retail jobs and they were right to do so because again 2022 was atypically high growth year even on top of that monster growth in 2021 so that's what set up this 2023 year because we've had these unusually high three years you would expect growth to slow down that's exactly what everyone forecasts and it did it just slowed down maybe even a little more than we hoped we hop to sort of regress to the mean and we're still sort of below the mean but when you factor in those last couple of years ### [5:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtfEIlHJFlg&t=300s) Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00) we're still doing very well overall in retail there are always winners and losers in the individual categories and it's almost not worth looking at the year-over-year category sales because there's all this ping ponging where category has a bad year one year and then rebounds the next year what I like to look at is who the winners and losers were since 2019 and so it probably isn't going to surprise anyone that the fastest growth rate of all the US Department of Commerce categories is non-store sales which is mostly e-commerce we'll get actual e-commerce data next month but for now we can see that non-store sales grew 83% way more than any other category since the beginning of the pandemic a surprise winner is restaurants which was also one of the fastest growing categories in the losers there were both some surprises and some expected folks clothing really struggled apparel really struggled at less than half the industry average growth over the last four years that sort of makes sense as people spent less on their wardrobe and had went out for Less events but surprisingly furniture and Home Decor which many people thought people would invest in more during the pandemic didn't do over well when you look on a four-year basis and most surprising at All Electronics did particularly poor that 1. 9% um growth so what's the story there well part of the story is that we've had huge inflation over the last four years and inflation didn't hit all these categories equally so while some of these categories had more expensive Goods because of inflation consumer electronics actually had less uh expensive Goods because of deflation and so on an Apples to Apples basis the category didn't do well and then it compared against other categories even more poorly because of the differences in inflation rates so let's talk about inflation for a minute whenever I talk about these numbers uh folks are always saying yeah but inflation have you adjusted for inflation and the reality is it's really difficult to injust for inflation it's difficult to measure inflation and it's difficult to perfectly adjust for it you also have to remember that inflation is in every Year's numbers so when we compare current numbers to previous numbers we have to remember there was inflation in both cases so back in 2019 in December we would have been talking about a 2. 3% rate of inflation which is kind of right in that band that the FED tries to achieve they like to see two to three % inflation every year this December we're down to 3. 3% which is much lower than it the peak over the last couple of years but still higher than historic standards and still higher than the fed's target of 3% but when we apply that inflation or rather if we look at sales without that inflation this is the that same retail sales that $7. 25 trillion uh over the the 4-year period and you can see we grew 2. 1 % this year versus last year we grew just under 35% since the beginning of the pandemic and when I completely adjust all of these sales numbers for the cost of goods in 2019 this is what sales would have looked like without any additional inflation so that 2. 1% growth would have actually been minus 1. 9% decline in sales and the four-year growth rate is only 12. 7% which is lower than that historic 4% per year over four years so no matter how you slice it 2023 was a bit of a disappointing year in retail um but now 2023 is in the rearview mirror and 2024 is shaping up to be a really interesting year as Warren Buffett once said it's only when the tide goes out that you can see who's not wearing their swimsuit and that's exactly what's happening right now uh the Tide's going out and we're seeing who's prepared for challenging Economic Times and who isn't um 2024 is certain to have a focus on profitability as retailers and Brands try to maximize their profit in this slightly economically more tight situation and we're almost certainly going to see some standout retailers really outperform the industry average and win share in this kind of a challenging Market but this probably isn't going to be a year when mediocre performance much less poor does okay it's probably going to be a stressful and challenging year um and we're probably going to see some casualties as we go through the year of folks uh that can't maintain those industry averages and fall by the weight side so I look forward to seeing how 2024 uh plays out and I hope you'll uh stick with me and share your opinions as we go through the year until next time happy Comm mercing --- *Источник: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/36879*