# Iran Escalates Its Attacks, but Its Revenge Could Be Different | VisualPolitik EN

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** VisualPolitik EN
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuiNT2RWWlc

## Содержание

### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuiNT2RWWlc) Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)

Kami has been killed and his successors could be making a 180° turn publicly. They're saying that the time for revenge is just around the corner, but at the same time, they're asking to renegotiate, and Trump has said yes. They're going to return to the discussion table. In a way, the move is very reminiscent of what we saw in Venezuela, albeit on a much larger scale. The United States, this time, along with Israel, has massacred the head of the regime, and now his successors may be more receptive to Washington's demands. visual politic community. In this new video, we're going to tell you what is happening, who is now in charge in Thran, what their strategy has been, and what may happen from now on. And beware, there may be surprises. Will we see images like this again? Let's get into it. Bombs continue to fall on Iran. In the last few hours, even the famous B2s have joined in, and both Israel and the United States promise harsher strikes in the coming days. And that's despite the fact that the first round of attacks have been devastating. So devastating that the primary objective was to take out the supreme leader himself, Ayatollah Kamei, the highest political, ideological, and religious authority in the Shiite world. And along with him, a large part of the leadership, which they achieved with flying colors, because they didn't just eliminate Kami, they also took out several dozen senior officials, including virtually the entire top military leadership. We're talking about the Minister of Defense, the Chief of the General Staff, the Commanderin-Chief of the Revolutionary Guard, the Head of Intelligence, and the Head of the Conventional Armed Forces, among others. Let me stress the blow that the regime received in just a few hours has been very severe. So much so that it has been largely decapitated. So now they've announced the formation of an interim leadership council that will be responsible for taking over the leadership of the country while the successor to the supreme leadership is determined, a figure who must be appointed by the assembly of experts, a body made up of 88 Shiite clerics. For the time being, this interim leadership council will be composed of President Masud Pzeskian, the head of the judiciary, Golam Hussein Moseni Aai and Ayatollah Alira Arafi from the Guardian Council. The latter two will represent the religious authority and will therefore have the most influence in this body. It's basically a kind of interim leadership. And the question is what response have they given so far to the blow they have received? Well, much less than expected. And that's despite the fact that in recent hours while privately considering the possibility of returning to negotiations, they have publicly insisted on promising the mother of all revenge. Our beloved leader Kamayai was martyed at the hands of the perverse US Zionist alliance. We will drive our enemies to desperation by destroying their bases and all their military capabilities. For its part, the Revolutionary Guard has announced the start of the most devastating offensive in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran vows devastating revenge after confirming Supreme Leader's death. The military has threatened regret inducing revenge in moments after the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Kame was killed in his compound on Saturday. And so while bombs continue to fall on Iran, the regime has promised to attack what it has described as occupied territories and terrorist bases of the United States. They have burned the heart of the Iranian people. We in response will burn their hearts. And then Grand Ayatollah Hussein Nori Hamadani, one of Iran's most important and ultra-conservative religious authorities, a man who is about to turn 101, has issued a fatwa stating that it is the duty of all Muslims to avenge the blood of their martyed leader, referring to Kami. And that in a nutshell is what they are doing. At least that's what they're trying to do. As you have all probably seen, Iran continues to launch missiles and drones against all its neighbors and also against Israel. They've even launched four missiles against the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln. But honestly, these launches are a very low intensity and are being carried out in a very fragmented manner. Is it due to a lack of capacity to carry out more serious attacks? A lack of leadership? Perhaps the regime has been so severely punished that it seems unlikely that it can be truly operational. And let's not forget that they're facing a formidable war machine. experienced, welloiled, and technologically advanced, which is not giving them any restbite. What's more

### [5:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuiNT2RWWlc&t=300s) Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)

it doesn't seem that the Iranians want to cross certain red lines, such as embarking on a kamicazi style attack against their neighbors energy infrastructure. And that's even though the Ayatollah has been killed. Therefore, for now, perhaps the most worrying aspect of Iran's possible response is that which concerns the Strait of Hormuz, where they have announced that they are prohibiting passage, and where there is speculation that they may have already attacked the first ships. Of course, that's not the biggest problem. The real problem is that this is causing insurance companies and shipping companies to turn away. This obstructs regular passage. For example, Denmark's Mesque, one of the world's largest shipping companies, has said it will suspend all ship crossings in the straight of Hormuz until further notice due to concerns about the safety of our crews, ships, and customers cargo. This is probably the biggest concern right now. The fact is that in the meantime, Donald Trump continues to call on the Iranian people to seize this moment to rise up and confront the regime while promising that they will support them by attacking all kinds of government facilities and enclaves with force. Kam, one of the most evil people in history, is dead. This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their country. The heavy and pinpoint bombing, however, will continue uninterrupted throughout the week or as long as necessary. There is little doubt about this. It seems that both Israel and the United States want to take advantage of this opportunity to destroy Iran's military capabilities. They want to blow up as much of its missile program, nuclear program, and other military facilities as they can. And as for the Iranian threats, well, they've also been very clear. Iran just stated that they are going to hit very hard today, harder than they have ever hit before. They better not do that, however, because if they do, we will hit them with a force that has never been seen before. It seems we'll be seeing intense bombing for a few days. Even if the Iranian authorities agree to resume dialogue and accept the conditions demanded by Washington, even if that happens, it's almost certain that the United States and Israeli forces will take advantage of this opportunity to decimate any Iranian capabilities. And if they don't jump through hoops, they will probably continue to be hit for quite some time. We're also likely to see Washington and Jerusalem doing everything they can to fuel a popular uprising because along with the attacks, that is a considerable means of pressure. And let me tell you something, what we're seeing is a landslide victory for modern warfare for the use of high-end military technology. Important AI applications are being used to select targets. And Israel is also doing things like this. Israel hacked popular Iranian prayer app to urge defections resistance. In any case, if one thing is clear, it's that the Iranians have greatly overestimated their capabilities. Because let's face it, the blow dealt in the early hours is clearly another success for US and Israeli intelligence. Think about it. Taking out the Supreme Leader and much of the country's leadership in a matter of hours is huge in strategic and operational terms. But even so, beyond the enormous success of the intelligence services and the brutal effectiveness of the Israeli Air Force, probably the best in the world today, it's clear that the Ayatollas did not do their homework properly and did not assess the situation correctly. The result, not accepting further concessions in the negotiations that took place in recent days in Geneva is something that will go down in history as one of the biggest miscalculations we've ever seen. Basically, the Iranian proposal was to reduce uranian enrichment from 60% to 1. 5% for civilian use and even halt the program for a while. But obviously that meant continuing it and from the outset they did not want to hand over the already enriched uranium considering it a bargaining chip. Although later they said that they could do without it. The problem is that no one trusted them anymore. On top of that, they didn't want to touch on what was probably the most sensitive issue in the negotiations, which was not so much the nuclear program, which the Ayatollas are ultimately willing to give up, but the missile program, their great deterrent and their only real means of projecting force. — Well, I won't speculate as to how far away they are, but they are certainly trying to achieve uh and this is not new. They're trying to achieve intercontinental ballistic missiles. Say that the Iranian insistence on not discussing ballistic missiles is a big problem. visual politics community. The problem is that this is a kind of wall. Iran did not want to give up the only means it has to militarily shield the Islamic revolution because without effective air defenses, without modern fighter jets, and without missiles, they would always be exposed. That's why missiles were a non-negotiable point. In fact, as you've seen, the only capacity they've had to respond has been drones and missiles. Of course, that's not all. Earlier I mentioned that for now Iran's response has been much more limited than was expected because in the end keep one thing in mind they have killed their supreme leader Ayatollah Kami who was not only a key figure in Iran but also the religious leader of Shiite Islam and they've also killed another 50 or so crucial figures in the regime the revolutionary guard and even major political figures outside the circle of

### [10:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuiNT2RWWlc&t=600s) Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00)

power. It would not have been unreasonable to expect real chaos to break out in the region. But what are we actually seeing? A few drones here that cause a little damage and a few missiles there that are being intercepted almost entirely with relative ease. And that leads to the inevitable question. What explains all of this? Was Iran truly unable to inflict more damage? Or is it carefully calibrating every move? What the hell are they actually after? The price of chaos. Take a look at these statements from Donald Trump himself. It's what we expected. We thought it would be double. Thus far, it's been less than we thought. — For Trump, Iran's reaction to the decapitation of its regime is much less than expected. That's despite the fact we're seeing constant attacks against virtually all the Gulf countries. Although it is true that they're targeting one specific place in particular, the Emirates. Suicide drones have struck airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, hotels, apartment towers, and some residential areas. To give him an idea, according to the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defense, at the time of making this video, they have faced 165 ballistic missiles and 541 Iranian drones. Most of them have been intercepted or simply allowed to fall because they pose no risk. For example, they were heading straight for the desert. And of course, given all this, the first question that is surely on many of your minds is why on earth is Iran attacking its neighbors if they had nothing to do with the military actions of Washington and Jerusalem? What are these attacks seeking to achieve? Could things get much worse? Well, let's first tell you why the Ayatollah regime is reacting this way. Well, the first thing you have to keep in mind is that Iran is not doing anything different from what they've long warned they would do if attacked. Take a look. Any American intervention would be a recipe for an allout war in the region. — Iran's idea has always been to use the wild card of regional war as a way to prevent a serious attack against them. an attack like the one that just happened. But now that this has happened, the reaction has a different interpretation. Punishment. Tan seeks to punish all of the United States allies in the region, especially the countries that are part of the Abraham Accords, which normalize relations with Israel. And do you know which Gulf countries signed this normalization of relations with the Jewish state? That's right, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Precisely the two countries that are being attacked the most. And although the attacks are very limited, they're not entirely harmless. Basically, because Dubai and in general the United Arab Emirates have always boasted one thing, being a totally safe destination. Dubai is seen as a safe haven in the Middle East. That's part of its recipe for success because security attracts investment and tourism. But think about it. What happens when everyone sees Iranian drones and missiles falling on their cities? Well, the image may change a little bit. A lot of people will start to ask, is this country really as safe and protected as they say? That in itself would be a punishment. a punishment with which tan is seeking to get these countries to intercede with Washington to stop the offensive. Hence, the attacks are somewhat limited. But of course, many of you are probably thinking, why don't they defend themselves? Why don't the Emirates, Bahrain, and the other countries under attack do anything more than intercept Iranian attacks? Why don't they strike back? Well, this is crucial, and it has a name, strategic containment. The attacks are, as I said, moderate. The damage is minor, and both the United States and Israel continue to hit Iran very hard. On the other hand, if they responded on their own, things could have gotten much uglier, which makes no sense. This is one of those situations where the risk benefit ratio of striking back is simply not worth it. Why do I say this? Basically, because of this, it's no secret a lot of the economies on the Gulf nations depend on oil and gas. Almost everything revolves around that in one way or another. So, what would happen if the United Arab Emirates or Bahrain decided to respond to Iranian attacks? Well, take a look at this map. All absolutely all of the oil and gas fields in the region are within range of Iran, even for its shorter range missiles. And we're not just talking about the fields. We're also talking about the oil export terminals and gas liquefaction plants that are needed to export this raw material in tankers. If the Emirates, Bahrain, or any other country in the region were to respond to Iranian attacks, we could go from drones and missiles that aren't doing any damage to something much more serious, which would be bad for everyone. Iran could start attacking oil and gas fields. That is the scenario that is trying to be avoided at all costs. A scenario that we could call mutually assured oil destruction. And I say mutual and assured because Iran would also have a lot to lose. What's more, there's an extremely weak critical point that the Islamic Republic knows would be the first target in the event of an all-out war. I'm referring to the island of KG. What you see here looks like any other small island, a piece of land that is barely 20 km. That's roughly equivalent

### [15:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuiNT2RWWlc&t=900s) Segment 4 (15:00 - 19:00)

to less than six of New York's Central Park. A tiny territory, but one that hides Iran's greatest weakness, an oil terminal through which 90% of all Iranian crude exports pass. It's basically the lung that gives oxygen to the regime. And guess what? It's within striking distance of Israel, the Gulf countries, and now also the United States from its aircraft carriers and bases in the region. If Iran dared to go all out, that is to attack its neighbors oil fields, it's highly likely that this island would be the first target for punishment. In short, it's an extremely risky scenario for everyone. That's why Iran is not playing the total chaos card, nor is it seriously firing at its neighbors, but rather in a very limited way. Basically, in this context, everyone has a lot to lose, and no one is willing to put their own interests at risk. By the way, in the next few days, we're going to send a special report to all Visual Factory Club members on the impact that this whole operation may have on oil prices and the scenarios that may arise from here on. Wait a minute, you're not yet a member of the Visual Factory Club. Well, you can register for free by following the link in the description or this QR code that you see on your screen. And just for doing so, you'll receive a dossier where I explain in a clear and simple way the most essential investment concepts. What multiples or the PE ratio are, what indices are, ETFs, derivatives, funds, EPS, you get the idea. And in a few days, you'll receive our commentary on the impact on oil. So, we look forward to seeing you there. It'll only take a second. In any case, as I said, the punishment from the United States and Israel continues. Iran has no means of stopping it, and its new authorities may not want to end up like their predecessors, and that's why they have asked to return to the negotiating table. They've asked to resume dialogue. This is breaking news. — Oman says Iran seeks peace, urges restraint as tensions mount, — and Trump, as we saw earlier, has confirmed it. It remains to be seen how it will turn out, but many are already talking about the strategy of getting rid of the tough guy. One strong blow and then waiting for those who come after to be more dosile. Visual politic community, this seems to be the new strategy of the United States. Of course, whatever happens, this does not eliminate all threats. If two things have become clear in Iran, they are the following. First, that the military capacity of the United States is escalating with new technology. In today's world, it may be more important to have real deterrence capabilities than lots of weapons and large armies. And second, that conventional warfare may no longer be an option for most countries in the world. And do you know what? It's possible that in Iran, there are many leaders already thinking about revenge, but perhaps a different kind of revenge, jihad. This is basically the plan that many in Iran were already advocating just a few weeks ago. Iran's parliament vows to fight holy war if US targets Supreme Leader Ali Kmenian strikes. Pay attention to this because even though Iran is a fairly secular society, there are two things we need to keep in mind. First, although they are not the majority, a significant part of the population is quite fundamentalist in religious terms. And since we're talking about a country with more than 90 million inhabitants, that minority amounts to many millions, not to mention Iraq. Second, hybrid warfare has been the Revolutionary Guard specialty for years, particularly that of the Goods forces. Nothing changes that quickly. In fact, there are several precedents that show that Iran has mastered the tactics of state terrorism. Let me give you a couple of examples. In 1979, Iranian agents shot and killed the nephew of the sha of Persia in the middle of Paris, an attack attributed to the Iranian regime. In the 1990s, many of you will be familiar with the attacks on the Israeli embassy in Buenoseries and the Amia Jewish Center, which together left more than 100 people dead. And that's not to mention their branches in the region and all the work they've done over the years with Hezbollah and other militia groups. They are specialists and the risk is that this will now escalate. This is no joke because whatever happens this week, this story is unlikely to end here. Iran is essentially a giant where politics and religion go handin hand and that always creates a lot of trouble. But that said, the question is, do you think there will ultimately be an agreement? Will Iran give in soon? Tell us what you think in the comments. You can subscribe to the channel by clicking the button to stay up to date with everything that happens. And don't forget to join the Visual Factory exclusive club by following the link in the description or the QR code on the screen. Take care. I'll see you soon.

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*Источник: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/43833*