# Mexico Burns: Why the Elimination of El Mencho Could Turn Everything Upside Down | VisualPolitik EN

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** VisualPolitik EN
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoBy7b_sfyY
- **Источник:** https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/43835

## Транскрипт

### Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00) []

The most prominent figure in Mexican drunk trafficking, the number one drug lord has been killed. And now the whole country is in flames. As I said, we're not talking about just any drug lord. This is the man who, after the fall of El Chapo and the decline of Elo became the most powerful and bloodthirsty drug lord in Mexico. But now, Nemesisio Oguero Cvantes, also known as Eleno, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, is dead. And the reaction has been immediate. On the morning of Sunday 22nd of February, several armed groups blocked a number of roads in the state of Jaliscoco using burntout cars and trucks. It was a coordinated response strategy that even affected Guadalajara International Airport. The goal to seow chaos, paralyze cities, generate fear, force the authorities to retreat, and announce to everyone that even though the king has fallen, the reign of terror continues. The situation was such that the governor of Jaliscoco, Pablo Lemus, had to declare a maximum alert. Even the Ibero American University of Puebla has suspended face-to-face classes, not to mention traveling on the roads. The reason behind this wave of violence, we've already told you, the announcement by the Ministry of National Defense of something that for years seemed impossible. The fall of Elmano. How did it happen? Well, according to the official statement, Mexican Army Special Forces with support from Military Intelligence, the National Intelligence Center, and the Attorney General's Office carried out an operation in the town of Tapalpa in the state of Jalisco. Tapalpa is a town of just 20,000 inhabitants located in the heart of the territory where the Jaliscoco New Generation Cartel was born and consolidated. The operation, the largest carried out by the Shybam administration, included air force aircraft and troops from the National Guard Special Immediate Response Force. According to the statement, during the deployment, military personnel were attacked and responded to the aggression, leaving at least seven cartel members dead. Among them was Eleno. The drug lord died while being transferred to Mexico City for medical attention. This time, his plan did not work out. This man, Ogua Cantes, had become the most powerful drug lord in the country and a top priority target for Mexico and above all for the United States. Washington had already increased the bounty for the drug lord to $15 million in December 2024, aiming to increase international pressure over his alleged involvement in drug trafficking, arm smuggling, and money laundering. But of course, if anyone thought that wiping him off the map would bring calm, nothing could be further from the truth. As we've reported, the cartel's response was not long in coming. The states of Jaliscoco, Tamal Leapas, Mishawakan, Guerrero, and Nu Leon have seen significant unrest and roadblocks. Law enforcement agencies had to drastically reinforce their presence in Guadalajara, Puerto Vata, Chapala, Reosa, cities with a high presence of foreigners. The Mexican government confirms that 25 soldiers and one civilian woman died during the wave of violence in Jaliscoco following the death of Elno. But while the authorities are now trying to put out the fires, the operation has undoubtedly been most celebrated on the other side of the border in Washington. — We're winning too much. It's just not fair. — This is the baffling message Trump posted. According to the Mexican Ministry of Defense, the United States provided additional information for the operation. In other words, it was an action encouraged, if not forced, by the gringoes. In fact, just a few weeks ago, Trump himself was already talking about all this on Fox News. We've knocked out 97% of the drugs coming in by water and we are going to start now hitting land with regard to the cartels. The cartels are running Mexico. It's very sad to watch and see what's happened to that country, but the cartels are running and they're killing 250 300,000 people in our country every single year. — In recent weeks, pressure from Washington has been mounting. Trump's statements even cause some alarm about possible direct intervention in Mexican territory. So, the real question we have to ask ourselves today is, what is really behind El Mencho's elimination? Who was this man capable of paralyzing half the country even after his death? And what does all this have to do with Washington? Pay close attention because here we go. But before we begin, if you're interested in the world of investing, if you want to learn how to manage your savings, protect yourself against inflation, and figure out how to make money beyond your day job, I've got some news for you. At Visual Factory, we've created the Visual Factory Club, a newsletter where every week we send out free content focused on essential financial education, the ABC of what everyone should know to understand the stock market, financial markets in general, investment platforms, how to assess investment opportunities, and which markets may have more or less potential. Because of course, if you want to invest your money so you're not

### Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00) [5:00]

at the mercy of your country's economic instability, you at least need to understand the basics of the financial world. In the Visual Factory Club, you'll learn all of this completely free of charge through the link below and this QR code. When you sign up for the club, you can start receiving the upcoming editions. What's more, when you sign up, you'll receive a dossier where I explain in a clear and simple way the most essential investment concepts, what multiples or the PE ratio are, what indices are, ETFs, derivatives, funds, EPS, you get the idea. After that, every week, you'll receive additional materials and market analysis to help you stay informed about what's going on. And by the way, the sooner you sign up, the better. Since we send each episode of the series by email and every edition is unique, if you're not subscribed, you might miss some of them and you won't be able to access them later. But with that said, let's get into the video. El Mencho Messio Ogueroa Cantes was 59 years old and held the title of the most wanted drug lord in the United States. For more than a decade, he was quite simply the most powerful leader of Mexican organized crime. But his story does not begin with downed helicopters or million-doll rewards. It begins in Aguilia, Mishoakan, a town nestled in a mountainous, inhospitable region where illegal marijuana crops flourished when he was just a child. That was his environment. He didn't become a drug lord from an airond conditioned office. He grew up within the ecosystem. As a young man, he immigrated to the United States where he was imprisoned for heroin trafficking. He served his sentence in one of those prisons where rehabilitation is the last thing on anyone's mind, was deported, and returned to Mexico with more than just prison experience. He returned with contacts, a potential network, and a much more professional mindset about how to run this business. And he put it all into practice by joining the Millennio cartel. Even so, drug trafficking is not exactly a stable business. It's more like a jungle. Internal wars within the Millennio drove him out of Mishawakan and part of that organization allied itself with Los Zetas, a group founded by elite ex-military personnel who imposed a brutal, militarized, and ruthless model. Despite this, Osaggua decided not to submit and took refuge in the neighboring state of Jaliscoco. And it was there that the real construction of this power began. In 2009, along with the Sinaloa cartel, he promoted the creation of the so-called Matazetas, a splinter group that claimed to be fighting Lozas, but was actually laying the groundwork for something much more ambitious. Just 2 years later in 2011, 35 bodies were found dumped in Vera Cruz near a meeting of prosecutors in what many interpreted as a Macaba act of criminal marketing. That episode marked a turning point in the escalation of cartel violence and foreshadowed just how far he would eventually be willing to go. Shortly afterward, he broke away and founded the Jaliscoco New Generation Cartel, which quickly began to expand. It didn't take long to grow. But let's be clear, the real turning point was the fall of his great rivals. First the extradition of Waqin Guzman Luera El Chapo in 2016. Then the capture of Ismael Zambardada Garcia Elmeo in 2024. And naturally with the Sinaloa cartel weakened, the power vacuum was evident and El Mencho filled it with blood and fire. For years he had been unable to compete with the cartels that controlled the US border. But he had done something smart. He had diversified his activities. While others fought over the same corridors, he targeted less saturated markets in Europe, Asia, Africa, and even Australia. Markets that were less contested and also very lucrative. Nessio was not just a violent drug lord. He was also a strategist who expanded his criminal business to more than a 100 countries, built up a large group of hitmen, militarized his structure, and even manufactured his own weapons. Yeah, you heard that correctly. Take a look. — CJNG, the only cartel that has had its own weapons factory. In 2014, El Mencho's criminal group put two mediumscale AR-15 rifle factories into operation. Then came the power vacuum, and he knew how to take advantage of it like no one else. He quickly expanded his cartel's activities until it had a presence in more than half of Mexico. And no joke, between one thing and another, he ended up with a force of nearly 18,800 worldwide. Of course, what really set him apart from the other drug lords was something far more disturbing. El Mencho did not play defensively. While many cartels only attacked when pressured, Eleno openly challenged the state, did not hold back, and did not flee. For example, in 2015, the Jaliscoco New Generation Cartel or CJNG launched an unprecedented offensive in its home state of Jaliscoco. Its hitmen surprised the National Gen Armory with ambushes and even attacked a convoy of state police officers who were trying to surround them. To give him an idea, they even shot down a military helicopter

### Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00) [10:00]

with an RPG rocket launcher. All this while setting fires and blocking streets. It was a nightmare. In that operation, they left dozens dead, including 20 police officers and nine soldiers. Shortly afterwards, the attorney general's office offered 30 million pesos, that's about $2 million, for information leading to his capture. But nothing came of it. And the man continued to expand his activities. And in 2020, he once again showed that he was not afraid to challenge the government. On 20th of June that year, his cartel carried out an attack on Omar Garcia Haruch, then head of the capital's police force and now secretary of security in the Shinbal administration, a guy who is commonly associated with the Sinaloa cartel. Well, the fact is that it was a high-profile operation in the heart of Mexico City, although they did fail to kill him. Otherwise, logically, he would not be in the federal government today. And it goes on. In 2022, the US Department of Justice accused him of leading the production and distribution of fentinil for the US market. And in 2025, the State Department went one step further. It officially declared the CJNG a transnational terrorist organization. The argument was compelling. Fentinil trafficking, extortion, human trafficking, fuel theft, arms trafficking, territorial control that described the cartel as a real threat to national security in the eyes of Washington. And today, that group finds itself without a leader. This has unleashed a huge wave of violence, images of which have been seen around the world. This is particularly true in Jaliscoco, a state that, let's not forget, is set to host four matches of the 2026 World Cup in just a few months. Delta, Alaska, American Airlines and Air Canada have canled their flights to Puerto Valarta and Guadalajara. In total, this wave of violence has affected at least five states. But what is most concerning is what on earth comes next. The internal collapse of Sinaloa continues and the CJNG may be entering its own period of decline. Whether the turmoil will spread further will depend on whether the leaders of the Yaliscoco New Generation Cartel have established a clear line of succession capable of holding the organization together or whether Osguera's death triggers fragmentation and a new wave of bloodshed. Oguera's death raises a huge question mark. Will Mexico's most powerful cartel fragment now? Will there be an internal war over succession? Or has the succession already been prepared? Bear in mind that these questions are important. In 2019, the capture of Ovidia Guzman sparked such a huge battle in Kuliaakan that the government had to release him. Although in 2023, they did catch him again and extradited him to the United States. In any case, it's clear that none of these options is possible in the current situation because Eleno has fallen for good. The problem is that if the CJNG's leadership is not firmly established, fragmentation could lead to something worse than a single powerful drug lord. A proliferation of violent cells competing with each other. For many analysts, this would be the worst case scenario because it would mean much more bloodshed, more instability, and more disputed territories. However, perhaps the most important consequence is none of these things. Because if one thing is clear, it's that Elmeno's death could not only signal a change on the streets of Mexico, but also the relationship between the Mexican government and the United States. In fact, none of what we're seeing has been by chance. Rather, it has been a move imposed by Washington. What are we referring to? Well, pay attention. Behind the operation, let's be clear. Elemento's death is not just another episode in the war on drugs. It's a crucial move in a much bigger game. Because if we've learned anything in recent months, it's that the Trump administration wants to score victories in the war on drugs. They consider it a matter of national security and want it to be one of their major political triumphs. Look, up until now, President Claudia Shinbound has always been critical of the classic hunt the kingpin strategy. For years, her argument has been clear. Decapitating cartels does not destroy them. It fragments them. And when they fragment, they become more violent. More cells appear, more territorial disputes arise, and it all ends in much more violence and bloodshed. That's why, according to her, the best approach was to focus on prevention and financial intelligence when dismantling the networks. The problem is that results never truly materialized. And in Washington, patients began to wear thin. Trump did not take a half-hearted approach to drug trafficking, but instead sent a very clear message. If Mexico does not act, we will. And since then, they haven't stopped taking steps in that direction. First came the label. In 2025, the State Department designated several Latin American criminal groups as terrorist organizations. Among them was the Jaliscoco New Generation Cartel. This designation activates much more aggressive legal tools such as global asset freezing, transnational financial prosecution, expanded military cooperation, and even if necessary, the use of force under the umbrella of the fight against terrorism. Secondly, fentinil was established as a weapon of

### Segment 4 (15:00 - 20:00) [15:00]

mass destruction. — If this were a war, that would be one of the worst wars. I believe they killed over the last five or six years per year 200 to 300,000 people. We're formally classifying fentinel as a weapon of mass destruction, which is what it is. No bomb does what this is doing. 200 to 300,000 people die every year that we know of. So, we're formally classifying fentinel as a weapon of mass destruction. — That's right. In December 2025, Trump signed a historic executive order placing fentinel in the same category as a nuclear bomb. And truth be told, in a way, it's not that crazy. Remember that between 2021 and 2023, more than 250,000 people died from overdoses linked to synthetic opioids, mainly fentinil, in the United States alone. And in 2024, at least 48,000 more people lost their lives. That's more deaths than we've seen in many recent conventional wars. So with that narrative in mind, the executive order instructed the Secretary of War and Homeland Security to update chemical threat response protocols to include illicit fentinil. In other words, we're talking about the first step for the military apparatus of the world's greatest superpower to directly enter the fight against fentinil. And to all this, we must add the third step, the 2026 national defense strategy published a month after the executive order. And what does this strategy say? that if states do not act against narot terrorist organizations that threaten the United States, Washington reserves the right to act on its own. This is the doctrine of preventive intervention applied to drug trafficking. — If a president identifies a threat to the national security of the United States, every president retains the option to address it through military means. — Visual politic with this step, the groundwork was laid for a possible direct intervention by Uncle Sam. The speech was written, the legal framework was ready, and alarm bells began to ring in Mexico. After Venezuela, the chances of seeing Marines and SEALs attacking positions in Mexico and even arresting drug lords and their collaborators skyrocketed. The problem is that this country could turn into a war zone. Uncertainty would skyrocket. Many investments could fall through. The country's international image would be ruined, and no one knows what exactly would happen. In general, a US military intervention is the last thing the Mexican government would want. Shinbam herself was apparently unequivocal. Nevertheless, while publicly rejecting any intervention, at the same time, Shinbam has expanded cooperation with Washington because she knows that this may be the only way to avoid the worst case scenario. We're talking about intelligence sharing, coordinated operations, joint pressure on financial flows. After taking office in 2025, and in the midst of Trump's trade battles, Shinebound stepped up seizures and arrests, prompting signs of approval from Washington, Rubio praised what he described as the closest security cooperation the United States has had with Mexico in years. In September 2025, a bilateral security implementation group was created to pursue dirty money, attack fentinel trafficking, dismantle border tunnels, exchange information, and strengthen border security. Shinbound herself is proud of the figures achieved. According to her, Operation Northern Border has produced impressive results. 10,929 arrests, 8,086 weapons seized, more than 120,000 kg of drugs seized, 603 kg of fentinil, and up to 1,887 laboratories dismantled. The result, since Shinbal's arrival, there has been a 50% reduction in fentinyl seizures at the southern border. And everything points to this being due to an increase in seizures within Mexico. As a result, there has been a significant drop in deaths from synthetic opioids in 2025. In other words, pressure from Washington has forced the Mexican government to get serious, and that has improved the numbers in the United States, although not in Mexico, or at least not entirely. Extortion and disappearances have skyrocketed. Mexico is in the spotlight for its alarming number of missing persons, and Shine Bomb is concerned about requesting more BTS concerts. Mexico has registered a total of 132,000 missing persons, surpassing a new historical record. Every day, 40 people do not return home. In Shinbal's first year in power alone, there have been 14,072 disappearances, representing a 20% increase. Be that as it may, Washington is celebrating what has been achieved

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but considers it insufficient. They believe it's time to go one step further, to go directly after the big drug lords and their political allies. And that's a problem because it directly affects the ruling party itself. There are allegations in the US Department of Justice linking prominent figures in Morena, Shinbal's political party to elicit financing from cartels such as Sinaloa, Northwest and G. There are quite a few governors under suspicion as well as accusations against figures close to former president Andre Manuel Lopez Obador. The most recent case is that of Adon Agusto Lopez Hernandez, who until the 3rd of February 2026 had been Morena's coordinator in the Senate. In August 2025, he came under international scrutiny when US media linked him to corruption and organized crime networks. Of particular note was his relationship with Hernand Bermudas Raka, his former security secretary, who had been arrested on charges of leading the criminal group Laadora, associated with the Haliscoco New Generation Cartel. Although Lopez Hernandez denied the accusations, he ended up resigning on February 1st. And that's just one example. Visual politic, Mexico has a structural problem with criminal infiltration in politics, and Shinebam's own party is caught up in it. The Mexican government is afraid that the United States will launch a direct military intervention, that it will have an excuse to impose trade barriers, or that it will directly and publicly denounce Marina. The result, regardless of her previous opinions, the president has had no choice but to accept some of Washington's demands. I am, of course, talking about the operation against Eleno, the most significant blow against Mexican drug traffickers in many years. An operation that, as you can see, has much more to it than meets the eye. Nothing we have seen is a coincidence. Now, it remains to be seen how it will all end. There are risks, but also potential benefits. Either way, right now, there is one less naroterrorist. Having said that, the question is, how far do you think this political shift in Mexico will go? Will we see a more intense campaign against the drug traffickers? What implications could this have in terms of violence? Leave us your opinions below in the comments, and let's get that debate rolling. And very importantly, if you like this video, please give it a like and subscribe to Visual Politic if you haven't done so already. These small gestures help us out a ton. As always, thank you so very much for being there. All the best. I'll see you next time.