# Microsoft Just Lost $1.4 Trillion in Market Cap. Tim Knight Says It's Not Done Falling. ## Метаданные - **Канал:** tastylive - **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2uKyzHI_gM ## Содержание ### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2uKyzHI_gM) Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00) So let's jump into the charts with the 10 minutes we have left. Uh here's the ES and um we uh I think are kind of reconstructing our liberation day experience here as compared to here. And we are challenging right now the kinds of lows we saw again and again. This big old line that goes back to the beginning of time uh represents. So, we are uh right near what should be an incredibly important support level. Um, if we break this um I think that we're going to see maybe the most substantial sell-off of this and once again, you know, this weekend there'll be some silly nonsense and we'll probably have a big rally on Monday again. So, it's um it's awkward because um even though the charts may be fully intact, one wonders, well, should I go into the weekend short? um or at least as short as I am because we've got to deal with um you know this giant uncertainty. Uh crude oil is up uh almost 5%. And although I'm not showing them here uh I think you've kind of gotten the idea. XOP, XLE blasting higher because in this whole wretched debacle the uh the one um sector which is just loving it is anything to do with energy and uh yeah they're just doing fantastic just lurching higher and higher. Uh the ENQ is not it's down over 2%. and we are at new lows for the year and weird prices now that we haven't seen since um September. [snorts] Uh and this pattern that I've been talking about endlessly may finally be complete. Um I mean be fair, we're probably going to close below this pattern. That means it's complete. It's not a maybe. It's not a hopeful. It's done. Um so the real proof of the pudding will be in what happens tomorrow. Um it should fall hard. Um Microsoft just as one element of that um I think has lost something like $1 and a4 trillion in market cap. $1 and a4 trillion dollars from one stock. just one stock and uh I think it's a long way from bottoming long way but it's at its own private bare market just absolutely cataclysmic and you know psychologically speaking within these companies how motivated do you think the employees will be that have been hired over the past couple years that don't have a penny of equity in the place um and how eager do you think old-timers will be to be like you know I'm just going to go fishing for the rest of my life now uh these have poisonous effect on these cultures. SMH um is down over 4% which is good progress unlike the ENQ. It's not quite complete but we're getting there. uh my anchor position, if I can call it that, of my options portfolio is my um puts on SOXL, the uh the ultra leveraged um bullish instrument based on the semiconductor sector. — And so the fact that we're breaking down an SMH is very positive. Um it was kind of uh set in motion, I think, by Micron, which you and I have looked at on a daily basis here. This is the fifth red day in a row and the peak um was just before earnings were announced and this doesn't include after hours data. But um yeah, that was the reversal right then when they had their earnings announcements which was exceptionally positive. Huge beat on revenue, huge beat on profits and it fell. That was a really good sign that things were turning. But anyway, my drug of choice here is SO XL down over [clears throat] 13%. And um mind you, I've got puts, you know, so it's not just 13%, it's, you know, um a magnified version of that. And I have great ambitions about this bad boy because um the um diamond [clears throat] pattern on this is just exceptional. There's a diamond topping pattern that I think is just terrific. Um, one critter that's quite new that a lot of people have been talking about is VCX. Uh, it seems this was some mechanism by which folks could participate in the open AIS and the SpaceX's and all the kind of hot preipo companies. And it went roaring higher here. Um, this is kind of hard to believe, but it looks like it went from like 25 to almost 700 in a few days. Um, I think I read that it had a ### [5:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2uKyzHI_gM&t=300s) Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00) uh um how would you put it? Uh price to net asset value ratio of like 25. So, you know, if if I had something that represented $10,000 and you were willing to pay $250,000 for it, that would be an unusual choice, but that's kind of what was happening. Um, [clears throat] so that's reversing to some degree. This is down, you know, almost 40% in a single day. I have no idea who was buying, you know, on this day. Is bonkers. Um, I had I I've bailed on a lot of good stuff, you know. I've checking out on a lot of good stuff. Uh yesterday, a fitting example of that was both EM and EFA. Um from a charting perspective, they were really clean trades. The fact they went against me for like 5 minutes was enough for me to like, you know, slip on my pink parasol and dump uh dump the whole thing. But yeah, I got out of them both, which is a shame because they're falling hard, but oh well. Um EWY is something that is also falling nicely. 5 and a half% drop. And this is South Korea um [clears throat] country fund. Uh gold worked out. Uh I bought it on Tuesday. I sold it yesterday for a nice overnight profit of something. I don't know, 5 6% something like that. It's given up all those gains. Um I pretty sure I mentioned yesterday how I consider kind of an ephemeral move. Um, and I was uh kind of GDX informed that opinion. GDX is down um almost 4%. Um, I have uh a lot of shorts right now. I think I want to say 43 different positions. And uh, this is definitely my kind of market. Not cuz it's just going down. I mean, it doesn't have to go down. What I like is that it's moving Monday nightwithstanding in a fairly kind of steady fashion. So, I can just kind of spend my day housekeeping. I don't mean literally housekeeping, though I like that too. But I mean like you refreshing stops, maybe trimming some here, maybe adding some there. Basically, just kind of surveying the landscape and making adjustments as needed. really like that because it kind of it's this corpus that manages itself um once you kind of catch up. But among those positions, just some odds and ends here amongst them. Um Bath & Body Works, an old friend of the show down again to about 2 and 12%. Uh Futu, uh also down again about 2 and 1. 5%. None of these are like really outsized moves. I mean, the market as a whole is down two 2 and 1 half%, but these are just coming along for the ride. Here's a well-known Google that is Alphabet. Um, this is just dynamite. This is something I' I've got a huge short position on. I kind of wish I had puts on it cuz I think the puts are going to do great. But look at that. That is a head and shoulders right there. Chewy. Is that pretty? Uh, that is a real head and shoulders. I tell you, I see so many ostensible charts out there saying, you know, here's this pattern, here's this pattern there. I'm like, what? No, it's not. I don't see that at all. you're wrong. It's even worse with computers. Um really clean patterns are hard to find and these things here are the only thing that can seem to do it. Um cuz I've tried other approaches. So that's why I look at, you know, over the course of my life, millions and millions of charts. Um and so this is a great example of a head and shoulders top. So down it goes. Uh Goldman Sachs. Um Tom's awesome. I'm joining Telegram. I'll have to say hi Tom. Um, surprise him. Um, so, um, that was distracting. Goldman Sachs. Yes, they are down as well. And I thought Tom was messaging me. I realized he doesn't have a way to do that, but um, yeah, there's Goldman. And there's a real pretty top on that one, too. So, terrific. Hims is also down just a little bit. And uh this was kind of a risky one, but I shorted WDC also and that's down nicely over 7% and we've broken below the price channel. So all those richly valued storage companies seem to be kind of uh getting kind of um crunchy. Uh also um XME another good short down 2. 61% like so. And I mentioned that was yesterday that one yesterday. Um got a nice gap trade on that one. Oh and one last one. CRDO, Credto Technologies. Um, this is down almost 7%. So, everything's going really, really well. Not as clean as, um, Google, but a nice rounded top pattern on that one as well. Oh, and one last last, last one. Got puts on this bad boy, Meta. Um, which I've ### [10:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2uKyzHI_gM&t=600s) Segment 3 (10:00 - 11:00) talked about a lot. Uh, but Meta is down, um, over $45 and, uh, I think it's got plenty to go. I actually did a measured move calculation on this and I couldn't believe it myself. I think it came out to like 430 or something like that. But I've got puts on that. Uh but they are wasteful, poorly managed organization. I can tell you from direct experience. Dreadfully wasteful. It's like having another military but in a corporate form. Uh I'm out of time, but one last thing critical Bitcoin. I'm short Bitcoin. I'm also short Micro Strategy. Um I think that what we're seeing this is an important analog. So this probably the chart of the show. Uh what's going on here I would like to suggest is the same as what had happened here. And so the you are here moment I would say is something like around here. And if we break below and forgive me for going long here I this is important. If we can break this bar here, the low we saw on Monday, uh I think we're in business at that point and we can look forward to this kind of move which will drag equities down with it. Okay, so uh good to talk to you and we'll wrap it up tomorrow and we can all worry about whether we should brave the weekend or not. So I'll see you later. Bye. --- *Источник: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/44903*