# [#66] Earnings Season Begins! What We're Watching Now

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** Stock Unlock
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxmj20gHRis
- **Дата:** 19.07.2025
- **Длительность:** 41:56
- **Просмотры:** 1,189

## Описание

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Stock Unlock#66 Podcast
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro (Daniel’s wedding!)
02:01 $VIT B.ST
07:02 Daniel’s thoughts on $CSU.TO
12:13 $RKLB
21:27 Question on Historical Insight Score update and beta testing invitation for the upcoming app, and possibly Historical Insight Score
24:18 Daniel’s thoughts on $BN
29:52 Shoutout to BobGo!30:35 Comparing $BX, $APO, $KRR and $BN
35:24 More context on Historical Insight Score and Valuation Score
41:12 Outro

## Содержание

### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxmj20gHRis) Intro (Daniel’s wedding!)

All right, it says we are live. — How's it going everyone? This is episode number 66 of Stock Unlock podcast live. If you're listening to the recording, come hang out with us on YouTube sometime. We do have an exciting announcement that is surprisingly not Stock Unlock related. This handsome guy over here is now a married man uh to a gorgeous, gorgeous I was going to say wife, but I'm going to say partner because that word triggers people sometimes nowadays. But I was up there in can I know Canada for your wedding. It was beautiful and just wanted to say congratulations and I'm sure everyone in the chat and the people watching too uh wish you the same. — Wow. Thanks Jake. Yeah, it was a great wedding. Happy you made it. Definitely was a smaller wedding. So yeah was happy that you were there and we had a good day. — Smaller by today's standards. I think it was what 70 or 80 people. — No, it was uh I think the final number was 50. Okay. I'll give that to you on the smaller side. It felt a little bit bigger. I traveled up to Canada twice during that time. — Yeah. — All right. — Yeah. It was like you were on a monthly subscription for Canadian flights. It was funny. — People uh crap on WestJet, but I honestly think it's a fine airline. — It's fine. Yeah, — it's fine. Anyways, it's good to see you all live. Uh we are taking live suggestions in the chat today. So if there is a stock that you are looking at or anything that you want to ask uh Daniel or myself uh feel free to drop it in Daniel any stocks that you've been looking at recently or should we take out the screener? Um, no. I don't think Well, there's always stocks I'm looking at, but uh, as I've discussed on my YouTube channel recently, the stocks that I'm looking at now are not ones that I am wanting to discuss publicly. So, — the one that you discussed publicly was the one that dropped, Vitec. — Uh, VTEC. Yeah, that was — Yeah. What happened there?

### [2:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxmj20gHRis&t=121s) $VIT B.ST

— That was very unfortunate timing. I'm a great market timer, everyone. I you guys should follow me for my day trading and my swing trading because I kill it. — What's the ticker? I'm trying to bring this up on my stock. — It's vit spaceb. st. Oh, — there's a space in it. That's how you know it's uh foreign. — international. Yeah. So, I was researching that stock for like a month. Uh bought into it, shared it with my Patreon and everything, like made a deep dive, whatever. and then uh finally announced that I bought it on my channel. And the only reason I announced that I bought it on my YouTube channel publicly was because I made this long video talking about how I thought the US markets were getting overvalued. Everything is expensive. I'm not finding value there. And then everyone was like, "Well, then why don't you share a stock that you've been buying internationally? " Like, you're just teasing us at this point. It's kind of like, "What the hell, man? " — I mean, you are teasing them, though. I know, but I think my logic is fair. Anyways, — also agreed. — Yeah. Anyways, um so I finally was like, "All right, I'm going to give you guys one stock because this one is a midcap in US dollars, its market cap. Well, now it's around 1. 5 billion, not really a small cap. " So I was like, "This is one that I've been buying. " And then overnight after I post the video, VTEC reports its earnings and the stock drops 17% literally the next day. I was like, "Wow. " Yeah, sometimes that just happens. — Yeah. I mean, I'm looking at it historically for those of you who are watching the video, and it does look like if you bought it over five years ago, you would be beating the spy. However, if you bought it any time within the last five years, it has been very much so lagging market returns. So, uh, I know that you already put out this content on your channel, but I guess it's fair to assume that you feel that this business, um, is now currently undervalued and maybe it wasn't before. Like, I'm not sure actually if we have our historical insights on this. If we do, it might be cool to show. I just don't know if those are — They don't work well. well for this one yet. — Yeah. Got it. — Yeah. I mean, I think it's cheap. I think it got cheaper. I think the market is overreacting. Um, yeah, it's really as simple as that. Um, I mean, if you want me to explain what happened, what happened is last year in the second quarter of 2024, they had an abnormally strong quarter for one of their subsidiaries. This company, Jake, if you're reading this, do you know what Constellation Software is? — Uh, yeah. And for the chat, they just buy software businesses, make them more profitable, and it's a like collection of companies investors. — Serial acquirer of software companies. VTEC is the same thing over in Sweden. Pretty much copy paste the business model. There's a few differences, but that's what they do. So, one of their subsidiaries had a very strong quarter in the second quarter of 2024. They are kind of more like an energy grid software company. There was a lot of energy transactions going on in um 2024 for that business. They had an anomaly, very strong quarter. So year-over-year for the second quarter, this year revenue only grow grew by 4%. And everyone freaked out. They were like, why is the revenue growing so slowly? What's going on? This company grows its revenue at 20% per year. And if you look at the charts, if you simply go through the earnings report and look at the charts, it's very clear that in the Q4 or sorry, Q2 of 2024, they had a very strong quarter. And — so you're sorry, you're saying for revenue strong or net income strong? — Revenue. — Okay. — You're not going to see it in these charts. Um you have to go to their subsidiary breakdown in their actual earnings report. — Fair enough. — Yeah. But in my opinion, everything is completely fine. The market is overreacting. People are getting way too caught up on a single quarter and next quarter everything is probably going to be back to normal and fine. So, okay. Well, we'll wait to see. I heard a rumor that you said on your YouTube channel that the stock was fine, but then it dropped so hard. So, I don't know, man. — Yeah, I suck. — If anyone can't tell, I'm very much uh in a friendly way making fun of Daniel there. Um quick yes or no. Are your uh feelings about uh the current valuation of constellation software public? I think they are. I just want to double check. — I mean, yeah. Um — cool. So then my general — Oh, sorry. Go ahead. — In general, I don't talk about international or Canadian stocks much on my channel simply because people like when I do the views go down like people just don't the data suggests that people don't want to hear about it so I don't discuss it. — It's as simple as that. But — don't hate the player, hate the game. — That's the game. Yep. So, my thoughts on Constellation Software's valuation today is it is extended. Yeah, its price to free cash flow is at an all-time high of

### [7:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxmj20gHRis&t=422s) Daniel’s thoughts on $CSU.TO

35 and um their growth rates are slowing down. So, the price ratio is literally at the highest it's ever been at the same time as the business growth rates are all slowing down. So, it looks pretty expensive to me. I'm definitely not a buyer here. — Gotcha. And I'm going somewhere with these questions, but you do still own Constellation Software. Is that correct? — Yep. — Okay. So my question to you then, and I mean this is a stock show, so I'm always interested to hear your thoughts here. Maybe some of our viewers are too. Can you walk me through a bit because it seems like you're in the middle of a hike. Like you there might be an ending to the hike. That hike is if I know you well, you probably want to own one of Constellation or Vitec. Maybe that isn't true and you can call me out there, but both of these businesses are very similar. So are you on a journey of potentially picking one or the other? Do you see value in owning both? And if you do, I'd be curious to just understand your mindset a bit more there as they just are such similar businesses. Anything you'd like to share or is that more on the private side? — No, it's I have thought about it like selling constellation and putting it in VTEC. My thing with Constellation is like I truly believe that the management of Constellation software is on par with Warren Buffett and I'm not exaggerating. I think they are literally that good. — Yeah. And sorry to interrupt you. What's the ticker again for Vitec? I just want to pull it off here. — vit spaceb. st. — Thank you. — Um, man, you're really derailing me today. But the like what were we just talking about? — You were talking about the valuation of constellation. So, we're uh talking about how you compare and contrast these two because you own them both. So, what I'm diving into — Oh, yeah. So, the evaluation of constellation software, it's just one of those companies where I genuinely think it's one of the highest quality companies I've ever seen. So it's I'm very hesitant to sell it. — Okay. And what's your valuation metric for these? — Uh price to operating cash flow is the best. — Okay. — I know you've already done all this but okay. Yeah. I mean you are seeing a very clear valuation change and in addition to that the value of constellation software is going up and I'll take the words out of your mouth because I believe it too. the valuation multiple can only expand so much. And if the growth rates of that underlying metric that you are evaluating on aren't also growing or picking up in their growth rates, then this can only go on for so long until the stock becomes famous quote, take a drink on your beno card, overvalued. And it's it is interesting what you say because what really impresses me about Constellation and to be clear I do not own the company is the I believe the CEO said that the stock is overvalued like just word for word. — Yeah. He basically said that he believes that from Constellation Software's current price the stock will compound by 8 to 10% per year because he believes it is overvalued. Yeah, I mean I totally see your case here. So, you know, not to keep pressing you on this, but like if is if Constellation's valuation keeps going up, is your mindset that you are eventually like just going to sell it — or that you would like start trimming it? — Or are you just not going to take an action yet? — Uh, I think we've discussed this before. I'm not someone who trims. Usually, if I have the decision to sell, I just get out. — Yeah. So yeah, I don't know where that point is. Like maybe it's 50 times cash flows or something, but like I think every stock is a sell at a certain price. Like if Constellation got to a trillion dollar market cap tomorrow, I'm out of that. I'm making away like a bandit, you know? I'm not staying in that. Um so there's a price where I would sell, but I don't also think like I don't try to use foresight on all of my stocks because I think it would be a waste of energy to think about every single stock and where I would sell it if the valuation got too high. If that makes sense. — Yeah. No, it's super fair. And yeah, just to summarize some of the main points here, I mean, less than half the valuation. Uh, it's growing basically at any time frame you look at almost identically on a revenue basis. I know that there's more to look into there, but yeah, definitely an interesting name. And just to, you know, make fun of you a little bit here, it is hilarious that the stock dropped so much the second you brought it up. They tell you that stocks don't know when you own them, but I actually have to beg to differ here. I think that this stock was aware of the fact that you owned it and you got trolled by the market on the timing. That's just my — Yeah, I got trolled big time. Like I looked at my comments the next day and everyone was like, "Wow, down 17% at the time of looking at this video now. " Because like people obviously would watch it the next day too. I got so many comments like that. I was like, "Yep. " I heard a rumor that they are creating an inverse Daniel Pranc ETF where you can take the opposite position of every stock you say and it is up 20% since that video. Yeah, sure. Like, yeah, BND, dude. BYD, Oatley, Open Door, all the 2021 meme stocks are coming back. All right, let's uh let's change topic here. What's going on, Yaric? Uh for those of you who

### [12:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxmj20gHRis&t=733s) $RKLB

are listening, there is a question on the screen. Uh could you please look into Rocket Lab valuation? Sold it uh with 200%. I'm assuming that's gain uh yesterday. Congrats on the gain. However, it keeps running higher. This is just nuts as people are betting on it. Um, Daniel, I think it would be great for you to screen share and go over this. And while you're doing that, I can actually add some historical context here to keep us honest. If you were to transcript all of the Stock and Lock podcasts, uh, live shows, again, this is number 66. You will find me and Daniel saying very clearly when Rocket Lab was at about $4 that we think that this is an incredibly risky stock. Him and I both didn't invest in it. and we aren't giving advice because we're not financial adviserss, but we both made our opinion very clear probably about a year and a half ago that this was an example of a business that is in a new industry, seemed very speculative and wasn't one that we saw a lot of uh investability in very specifically for what Daniel and I care about. I actually do think going back in time that does remain true. However, let's just be super honest with ourselves. This has over 12xed. If you followed mine and Daniel's mindset on the stock from what we said a year and a half ago, uh, you would not be very happy with us right now. So, before we start talking about this more, this is obviously out of the realm of where Daniel and I usually invest. However, it is obviously a great stock. Um, the last thing I'll say here, Daniel, is I did watch a documentary on an airplane about three or four months ago uh on the rocket industry. uh it had I think it was called AVA. It was one of the companies that is now underwater. So just to be clear, there are companies that were in this space that you could have invested in that were just like Rocket Lab that have now went to zero. Um anyways, Rocket Lab obviously hasn't. I did watch the CEO of Rocket Lab in that video and the founding story of this and the founder behind this business is a pretty impressive guy. I will say that much. I do really love the founder. Um, but yeah, Daniel, maybe you could take it from here to see what you are seeing in the fundamentals and what may have changed or not have changed since we talked about it a couple years ago. — I don't know about the viewers, but I feel like I'm reading your mind in that sigh. — I'm uh I'm gonna continue with what I've always said, like the only thing that's good about the fundamentals of this business is its revenue is growing. like okay revenue is up but when you take a look at operating income like it's getting worse so oper like the operations are losing more money net income is continuing to decline shares outstanding is continuing to grow they're diluting to keep the business going um operating cash flows have been negative the company's entire history losing hund00 million per year capex 76 million stockbased compensation 63 million very high for a company losing um issuing shares and free cash flows negative $177 million. So this company is straight up running on other people's money. It's not making any money right now. Investors are very clearly buying it for its future potential. But at the same time, it's now trading at 50 times sales, which is freaking insane. And it has a gross margin. — That's a bargain compared to PLTR. — And it has a gross margin of only 27%. So, the gross margin I view is, oh god, my mic just fell. The gross margin I view is like the company's profit potential long-term. Like, if a company has an 80% gross margin, then it's probably pretty likely that one day if it wanted to, it could produce a free cash flow margin of like at least 20%. But when your gross margin is 27%. You can't have a free cash flow margin of 30%. Right? Like that's it's just the math doesn't work. So maybe this company could have a free cash flow margin of like 10% long-term when it actually becomes profitable. So in general like the profit margins of this business even when it's matured are probably not very high. So if you have a 10% let's be generous 10% free cash flow margin long-term when it's matured on $466 million of revenue. That's $46 million in free cash flow with matured profit margins on a $23 billion market cap divided by $46 million in free cash flow. That's 500 times free cash flow potential when it's matured. Like that is that is a ridiculous valuation. So I wouldn't necessarily say that like you said earlier that this is a good stock. I mean, if you're looking at just the share price, yes, it has been obviously a great stock, but that's just simply not how I invest. I always invest based on fundamentals. And when I look at the fundamentals of this thing, I still think its fundamentals are terrible. And I would say that this is more so a reflection of what I was saying at the beginning of the video, how the US markets are just kind of getting crazy again in my opinion. And I think that this is a good example that the US markets are in fact getting crazy again. Like this thing should not be selling for 50 times sales in my opinion. — Fair enough. I don't have too much to add there. The only counterpoint which I feel people might be thinking now is there's always the profile of company where they spend they're losing and it's because they're creating IP. So the one thing I will give Rocket Lab is this is not like a payment processing company. This is not uh a company that's diluting to buy Bitcoin. So while agreeing with the things you said of the amount of risk, — um with great risk comes great potential reward for anyone who bought it at $4 if they're still holding. Obviously, congratulations. Um probably out of our scope of competency, which is maybe the most fair thing to say. Um, — I just I just have different opinions than I think a like probably 95% of people in the market. Like I don't think how do I word this? I don't necessarily think that if you make money on a stock it was a good investment. And I have had this debate with people before where they think if you make money on a stock it's always a good investment. And I would actually disagree. And Peter Lynch has actually disagreed with this as well. I actually get this thinking from Peter Lynch. You have to think about the risk you're also taking and being straight up honest with yourself on if you just got lucky. And I think that there are people in the market right now where they're going and buying very speculative stocks with very poor fundamentals. The share prices are rising because the US markets are in a frenzy right now. And then everyone is like, "Look at me. I'm a really good investor and I'm a genius. " And I straight up think that a lot of people are just getting lucky right now and bailed out by the overall froth in the market. And I wouldn't necessarily say that's people being good investors. — Yeah, I mean it brings up a really great and of course opinionated point on what is a good investment. — I tend to agree it makes it a little bit more murky, right? But then you could also say the opposite logic too, right? Hey, I bought this stock or whatever and I have a 20% loss. It might be harder to make that argument, but then you could also say it wasn't technically a bad investment based on what happened under the hood or what you knew at the time. — Yeah, I think this will be one of the things where people will agree to disagree and have their own ways of benchmarking it, but I think it's a very fair point to make and I expect it to be controversial. — No, it's uh it's definitely not white. Like the thing about investing and there's is I would say there's pretty much nothing that's white and black. Like everything is subjective, but that's my opinion. Um, but to your point where if you bought a stock and it's down 20%, I would actually make the argument that doesn't mean that it's necessarily a bad investment. I'm currently sitting in that situation with VTEC. Like I am literally in that position right now. And I would not say that VTEC is a bad investment. I would say we'll see. But when I look to the business, which is always what I base my investments off of, not what the share price is doing, I would say it's actually probably going to be a phenomenal investment over the long term. Not investment advice, by the way. — Not investment advice. That's obviously everyone do your own research. But yeah, so I guess the takeaway there is I don't necessarily think that at least in the short term, your validity of an investment is confirmed by what the share price of the stock does in the short term. — Fair enough. I have nothing to add there. Uh it actually also looks So this is the same person that just asked that Rocket Lab comment. If you're just joining us now, you should definitely flash back uh start from the beginning. But uh yeah, this person admits maybe it wasn't a great move, but they made a lot of money. I think there's like a lot of wisdom in that. So Daniel, your words are uh touching some people there. You have a congrats on the wedding. — Most of you have joined after the beginning, but Daniel did get married last week. Uh congratulations. — Sending you hugs and kisses. Um there was one other question here. So someone's asking about BN. We know that's your favorite topic. Uh, while you're thinking about if you want to take that one, Daniel, um, and again, if anyone's watching, please drop your comments in the chat. We love for this

### [21:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxmj20gHRis&t=1287s) Question on Historical Insight Score update and beta testing invitation for the upcoming app, and possibly Historical Insight Score

to be interactive. When's the val the new valuation feature coming out? I can't wait. Also, insight score history. Uh, so light background here, unless of you've been sleeping under a rock. We run stock andlock. com. We have our insight score, which is a point in time fundamental score, uh, unique to different industries. Everyone loves it. We use it all the all day, every day. It's been around for 4 years. That is becoming historically back tested and we are 10xing all the logic and software around what powers that score. We have been teasing it a little bit both in this last show and on Daniel's Twitter. Uh we don't have a hard date for this. I feel comfortable saying uh two things. One, it's coming in the future. Uh we're talking months, not years. Sometime this year. I'm not going to be that rude. And there there's one more thing I was going to bring up, but I'm forgetting. Oh, yes. If you are a subscriber with us and you want to beta test and get early access with the responsibility of actually helping us test, we do have a private beta testing crew. Now, I cannot promise because I haven't talked to Daniel yet that valuation historical insights will be on the beta testing list. it might uh but even if it's not that we are starting to beta test the mobile app very soon with external testers in that pool. So if you are hearing this and this sounds fun and you want to join the cool cats of the beta testing crew uh send an email to us supportstock. com hit us up on our Discord whatever it may be hit us up on email let us know uh we really appreciate the extra help and some people have a lot of fun with it. Yeah, I would uh double click on what you said there, Jake, about you have to give feedback. So Jake kind of runs the secret beta testing crew, as he calls it. If you're in that group and you do not give feedback, like if you're in there just to get free features, Jake will kick you out. I I've gotten in trouble with this before though. Like we love you. Any customer, people that are giving us business, like obviously we are really appreciative of that. like I have kind of rubbed heads very accidentally uh with that framing. So yeah, it'll be done respectfully, but just please understand uh the intent of being in the beta testing crew is to give feedback. Uh if you are not giving feedback or helping us find bugs or even like just giving us a thumbs up, letting us know that you exist, I'm going to think that you are a competitor trying to steal IP or something else, uh it's not you, it's me. But yeah, Daniel, do you have any BN discussion in you? I'm not sure if you've read these chats, but it looks like this person is obviously a follower of you and has been uh doing deep research here. So, your call if you want to take this or bounce us over to something else.

### [24:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxmj20gHRis&t=1458s) Daniel’s thoughts on $BN

— Uh, no, I can talk about BN since BN is gone crazy the past I think around the past month. It's been — going nuts. — Congrats on all time highs and that's the last time I'll interrupt you on this. — Uh, thoughts on BN here. Looking to buy it. It's 20 30% below nav, trading below pi is like black rockck, etc. So, do I build a full position hour wait for dry down? Not advice, but what would you do? Yeah, so I definitely cannot tell you what you should do. Um, not a financial adviser at all. I don't think that looking at Brookfield's net asset value is the way to value the stock. Personally, the way that I value BN is I look at its distributable earnings and then I use a price to distributable earnings ratio or metric and I believe that BN is doing somewhere around $5 billion in distributable earnings per year. Now, this metric on stock unlock unfortunately Jake 6. 2 billion does include realized gains on investment sales. So, that's not actually like the operating earnings right there. The operating earnings of the company is around 5 billion today. So that puts BN around a 22 price to distributable earnings. Um I think that's not necessarily expensive for the stock. Its peers like Apollo and KKR trade for above that. I believe they actually trade for 25 to 27. So BN does currently trade for a slight discount to its peers in the US. And you know, they're projecting to grow that DE metric by 20 to 25% annually over the next 5 years. So I think a 22 multiple for 20 to 25% growth is extremely attractive, especially on a high quality company like Brookfield. That's why it's my largest position. And I think that Brookfield personally is still undervalued. I don't think that it is necessarily the like deep value massively discounted by a ridiculous multiple that it was over the past couple of years. Um but in terms of is it selling below fair value I would say in my opinion personally I do think that it is. So I think that uh that kind of wraps it up. I don't think that it's going to do like crazy returns from here because we've already had a lot of returns from BN. Its multiples have expanded quite a bit. There was a period in 2024 where I think it was trading for like 11 or 12 times distributable earnings and that multiple has now expanded to uh 22. So there has been a lot of multiple expansion already. Uh you're muted Jake probably for the best. I have a uh nerdy financial data question for you. — What's up? And I'm also going to secret secretly uh not speaking. Yeah, I have a list now. I'm going to secretly announce a new feature. Uh I hate myself. Okay, so right now we get our KPI data from a different data provider than most of the financials on the site and that is partially due to it being a very unique data set. Um, I do believe that we are about to 10x the amount of KPI data we have in terms of company coverage. So, right now we cover around 2 to 3,000 stocks. That's about to blow up to about 30,000, including international companies. So, you heard that right. If you're one of the few people in here that heard that first, you should feel excited. I got goosebumps, too. I know. It's awesome. Daniel, the nerdy financial data question is, does our current data provider for distributable earnings also include that unrealized or realized gains number that you pointed out here? Um, which you said skews a little bit from the actual underlying metric you use when you take out the pen and paper. — Um, unfortunately, no. — All right. Well, I have a homework assignment for you. Um, you're going to email our data provider and ask them I'm Dude, I'm dead serious right now. like ask them if they can include that metric because Daniel Prong's company stock unlock better have the right distributable earnings metric. If not, I think that we can actually just calculate it ourselves for this one data item. And the engineers, including myself, might hate me for that, but if you write that down and give it to us on quarter TTM and yearly and it takes you like one hour or something, we might actually have that in stock a lot. So, I'll put that in your you can decide if you want to act on it actually, but I'll put that in your court. would love to see that there because it made me very sad when I pulled that up and you said that it technically it has a technicality in it. Yeah. — That makes it deviate away from what you like to use. — Yeah, it's like the total distributable earnings is still a great metric but it is spiky because like in 2021 for example when the market was extremely frothy um Brookfield was selling a lot of their assets at high prices. So their distributable earnings that year, their total DE was inflated because they were taking a lot of gains on investments. And then over the next few years, they slowed down as the market came down. So their actual total DE declined, but their operating DE was growing the whole time. So realized gains on investments does skew that metric a bit. — Cool. Well, you have your maybe homework assignment. I'd love to make that a reality as we are really digging deep uh perfecting our core here. Okay, shout out to R goth. Super sorry if I'm mispronouncing that. Uh also known as

### [29:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxmj20gHRis&t=1792s) Shoutout to BobGo!30:35 Comparing $BX, $APO, $KRR and $BN

Bob Go or Robert in the Stock and Lock Discord. Just want to say a huge thank you live on air. This person has been helping us moderate our Discord honestly for years at this point. And I know I say this in text, but just want to say it publicly. The amount of appreciation Daniel and I have for that is literally over the roof. The amount of spam that is hidden and triaged uh by Argoth, otherwise known as Bob Go here is incredible. So, seriously, hats off to you. Really appreciate that. And it's super great to see you live. With that, Daniel, question for you because this is not in my scope of competency. Have you ever compared Blackstone, Apollo, and BN? — Uh, yeah. And I've also compared KKR. The the thing is they're all kind of different in their own ways. Apollo is very focused on insurance. I believe that's the vast majority of their business is actually being an insurance company, whereas Brookfield just started their insurance company in 2021, I believe. So, they're a little bit different, but overall, they're pretty similar companies, honestly. Here's my thing. Brookfield is a lot of work to analyze the business, understand what's going on there, and keep up to date with everything. And I simply don't want to have another one of these. I'm okay. I like Brookfield, really like the management. Um, trust them entirely. So, I'm kind of just like, you know, I have one asset manager. It's the one I really like and I don't really want to get down the hole of owning Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR or even a mixture of them because I think it will be too much work to keep track of. And also BN was trading for that really large discount in uh 2023 2024 like as I said they were trading for about 12 times distributable earnings and uh their peers were trading for like 25 27. So there was a massive discount to BN which is also why I was more interested in uh that one. — Yeah, that's that is starting to happen to me too with some stocks. I am someone who would rather own five to 10 businesses as opposed to 20 to 30 and it really comes down to just how much time do you have in the day. Uh also there's other things that come into play there where I'm not a huge diversity diversification guy. I do like diversity actually but diversification when it comes to stocks not super into it. Just to make that very clear here. Um I'm going to actually share my screen, but to finish that thought, Melly, that is a stock that I probably would like and want to buy, but with owning like Microsoft and Google and Amazon, which like are already basically ETFs on their own to analyze, when I started looking at Melly, I was just like I was I almost felt anxiety. I was like, I don't even have time to dive into this business. It's so big. I have other things I'm doing like growing the business and stuff, too. But anyways, just to bring these stocks up to continue this going here. Uh Daniel, you can direct me as to if there's any other better metrics to use here. I know that uh these businesses using GAP financials are pretty challenging, but I figured we could look at like the last 14 years here uh just to see who's been the winner in market cap gains, which would uh equate to uh grow market valuation. And it does seem like Okay. Oh, awesome. Yeah, I code this and I didn't even uh know that you can sort that. Okay. It looks like Apollo has by far had the best Kagger returns in the last 14 years. Let's see if that changes if we make the uh range smaller. — You do need to be careful when you're using market cap because this can be inflated if the company's share count has grown. — Is there a better metric I can be using here? — Stock price. — Okay, let's see if I don't know if we have a stock price here. Okay, we do. It is nuts that our software is so big now and I've coded a lot of it that I am actually not able to keep in the top of my head everything we have here. Okay, great call out Daniel. Let's do this again. We're going to do this one more time. Last 14 years, who's winning? BN. Okay, — there you go. — This is why I love you. Um, and as we move this, you could actually play a little game with your eyes down here if you're watching the Kagger. If you're listening to us uh just with audio, we are looking at APO, KKR, BX, and BN. It looks like BN over the past 10 plus year period has had the biggest Kagger gains to the stock price. Uh again, shout out to Daniel for having us move away from market cap there because share count is obviously very relevant. It looks like BN goes back to the bottom once we're within 10 years away. And let's see, it actually kind of stays there until recently. All right, Daniel, I'm not sure if you have any comments on this data. I mean it's you could talk about it forever depending on what time range you look at which could obviously justify something different. So you could pick this time range say BN was the best, pick this one say they were the worst. So obviously is subjective but — anything else to pull from this or just that they're all very complicated businesses and depending on the time that you buy them and the valuation is obviously going to influence the returns that you can expect to get from the stock. — Yeah, I mean that's pretty much it. — All right. Uh if anyone has follow-up questions on this, let us know. And uh yes, if you want to make fun of me for not really realizing parts of our software that existed that I probably wrote, uh please uh do so in the chat. Um and I think we'll probably go for another fiveish minutes here live. If there's more questions, Daniel, I know that you have been hopping online super late. I mean, do you want to talk to anyone here a little

### [35:24](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxmj20gHRis&t=2124s) More context on Historical Insight Score and Valuation Score

bit more about the level of granularity and detail you're going to when it comes to crafting these hyper unique uh valuation and insight scores. Um we have already said just to give a little bit more mathematical nuance here that the way that the scores work today is being expanded on. So they are already unique per industry but along with historically back testing them we took the opportunity both on the tech layer as well as the product layer to support infinite permutations and deep dives on specific businesses since for example Google you might care about advertising revenue where with BN you do not and with BN you have distributable earnings and for Spotify you do not so obviously it's not a one score fits all. — Uh you've been staying up late man I mean what's going through your brain? Yes, you — like a little like mad scientist there. — No, this actually goes to what Alex P just said, by the way. Hello, Alex. Good to see you again. Um, he says, "It seems that asset managers, alternative asset managers are hard to measure using stock unlock. " I would 100% agree with you today. Um, BN score, this is one comment I get every time I talk about Brookfield on my channel is, "Why is BN score 2. 5 on Stock Unlock? " It's because GAP financials suck for these companies. So, we're working on fixing that and that's actually part of the work that I'm doing right now. So, if I share my screen, as Jake said, we are building the historical insight score. Um, this is what it is right here. We're actually taking a look at BN right now and we're getting down to the point where we're well, I was doing this manually, which is why I was staying up so late. I was going through all these stocks. I went through Apollo, KKR, um, Blackstone, Black Rockck, mult like dozens and dozens of companies to try and figure out what their best metrics are. With BN, it was easy for me because I know this business very well. So, we actually have the distributable earnings for BN now over the past 5 years. And we obviously are looking at more metrics here like specifically for BN. But you can see that now this isn't live yet, but BN's insight score is actually green right here. And if we click on this date, we can see that its insight score is probably yeah 4. 38. So we are fixing this. We are actually getting all of the right metrics. Like you can see growth now takes into consideration of fee bearing capital, fee related earnings, total assets under management, total distributable earnings. These are the metrics that actually matter for BN and these metrics only matter for BN. So you will not be you know calculating fee related earnings growth on Google or Microsoft. So we're actually getting down to that level of specific spec I don't know that word. We're being that specific on the stocks with our insight score. So, it's going to be a lot better of an experience. Like even dividends, you know, we're using distributable earnings payout ratio now for the payout ratio. We're not using like free cash flow or net income. It's their actual distributable earnings payout ratio. So, this is a lot better. It's much more intelligent and it's uh it's getting a lot better. Um then with the valuation score, this one is very hot online. Like whenever I show the valuation score, we get a lot of interest in what we're building. This is also going to be company specific. So Amazon for example, the metrics that we use to score Amazon's valuation are completely different than the metrics that we will use to score BN's for example or um even a stock like Microsoft Nvidia or Netflix like we're going to be using the metrics that we identify are the best for those companies specifically. So yeah, this is Amazon's historical valuation score. We can see the valuation got pretty heated in 2020 and in 2021, which does make a lot of sense. Back then, Amazon was actually getting quite freaking expensive. Then, as the stock corrected in 2022, the stock went to green. Its valuation score went up as the share price went down, which is exactly what we want to see. And it was green for a while. Now, it is still green, but it is approaching orange, which means that it's getting to around fair value now. like you can see right here in uh December 2024 when it was at like 226 it was getting to fair value and I believe we're approaching there again. So yeah, that's kind of what we're doing. This is not ready yet. There's a lot of stocks where this still does not work at all. Like for example, VITB. ST VTEC we have and the valuation score here. This just like straight up is not accurate. So, we do need to do more work. It's not ready yet. That's why it's not released. But yeah, we're working on it. And it is making a lot of really good progress. You're muted again, I think. I'm excited. Uh you did have a question here. So, Gabriel, definitely flash back to earlier in this video. We did get a BN question. Uh Daniel talked at length about it. Uh the TLDDRs, he's not a financial adviser, so take this with a grain of salt. Seems to potentially be approaching fair value. It's not as undervalued as Daniel perceives it used to be. Uh but that is just by his own opinion and metric. Uh he did not say that it is overvalued, but uh classically and annoyingly. Do your own research there, but uh again, he talked at length about that earlier in the video. — All right, this has been another great

### [41:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxmj20gHRis&t=2472s) Outro

episode number 66. I didn't call this out, but uh 66 is the unlucky number. So, happy to move past it and getting closer to 69, which is a nice number uh because we have no maturity here. So, Daniel, I don't know if you want to say anything else before we hit the end stream button here. — No, I don't think so. Just thank you for everyone tuning in. It was fun as always and we'll see you next month. Hopefully, we'll have more updates on the app and insights next month. — Yeah. And we can do the fun Apple Laser send the show. — All right, I'm gonna click the end stream button now. — All right, bye everyone. Thanks everyone.

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*Источник: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/45784*