# Canada's Housing Market JUST Hit a Breaking Point ## Метаданные - **Канал:** Beavis Wealth - **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM - **Дата:** 07.04.2026 - **Длительность:** 8:21 - **Просмотры:** 18,271 ## Описание The Canadian housing market has hit a "stall." In this video, I break down the brand new March 2026 report from TD Economics, which paints a more unsettling picture than the previous CIBC "Anatomy of a Correction" report. From steep forecast downgrades to the first population decline since Confederation, the narrative in Ontario and BC is shifting rapidly. I dive into the "Affordability Paradox"—explaining why falling prices are actually keeping buyers on the sidelines—and look at why the GTA condo market remains the weakest in the country. Plus, I analyze how soaring energy prices are creating a regional divide, boosting markets in Alberta and Newfoundland while weighing down the rest of Canada. Is this a temporary pause or a structural shift? Watch to see the 2026-2027 price forecasts and what this means for your next real estate move. Chapters 0:00 The Housing Market Correction So Far 0:19 TD Economics: A New, Unsettling Forecast 1:05 Deep Downgrades to the 2026 Outlook 2:08 Why Interest Rates Aren’t the Story Anymore 2:35 The Population Shift & Rental Demand 3:22 The Affordability Paradox 4:03 The Condo Imbalance: GTA Focus 4:33 Regional Winners & Losers 5:05 The Energy Wild Card 6:22 2026 National Price Forecasts 6:56 Looking Ahead: The 2027 Rebound? 7:25 Key Takeaways & Final Thoughts 🤗 Join over 500,000+ DIY Investors on the Blossom app (FREE) ➤ https://getblossom.onelink.me/SOfu/brandonbeavis ----------- 📥 Subscribe to the Pulse Newsletter for Weekly Market News ➤ https://thepulse.beaviswealth.com/ Courses & Training - The Investing Academy ➤ https://bit.ly/theinvestingacademy Follow Us On Blossom ➤ https://getblossom.page.link/brandon Instagram ➤ https://bit.ly/3Oechgh LinkedIn ➤https://bit.ly/3RLndF7 Website ➤ https://www.beaviswealth.com ----------- Business Inquiries: support@theinvestingacademy.ca ----------- Beavis Wealth Disclaimer: The views and opinions shared on this channel are for informational and educational purposes only. Although previously licensed, the contributors are no longer industry participants and are not licensed to provide financial advice. They strive to provide you with educational information in an entertaining manner. Always do your own research and due diligence before investing. Generally speaking, you should consult a licensed investment professional before investing. ## Содержание ### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM) The Housing Market Correction So Far There's been nothing complicated about the uh housing market narrative here in Canada over the past year or so. The housing market corrected. I think we can agree on that. Prices came down. Eventually, uh buyers are going to come back in, but that hasn't happened yet. And I put a recent video up in the channel here uh covering CIBC's report. It's called the anatomy of a correction. ### [0:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM&t=19s) TD Economics: A New, Unsettling Forecast That report was gloomy, but if you think that was bad, uh prepare for a brand new report uh just March of 2026 from TD Economics. And this one paints a picture that is even more unsettling than the crash that we talked about in the CIBC report. Now, we're not looking at a freef fall here. That's what the TD report says. It says we're also not seeing a rebound. We are stuck in a stall. And in today's video, I'm going to break down what the TD data says. I'm going to show you the affordability paradox. why lower prices still aren't low enough, an inventory trap, why sellers are still holding on even though the market has frozen, and then we're going to look at their 2026 forecast and what the stall means for you, your equity, and for your next move. So ### [1:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM&t=65s) Deep Downgrades to the 2026 Outlook let's dive into the numbers here. The new TD report, it's entitled Provincial Housing Market Outlook, steep downgrades amid persistent housing headwinds. And the phrase steep downgrade, that's what really jumps out to me in this report here. Right at the very start, TD writes that weaker than expected performances in 2025 Q4 and especially 2026 Q1 have prompted a steep downgrade to our forecasts. So they're saying this isn't just a continuation of the slowdown. It's worse than that. Look at this chart on page one of their report. It shows forecast for home sales and it's been revised sharply downward compared to just a few months ago. Q1 2026 numbers are most obvious. Green is current. The black is just a few months ago. And the reason isn't just one thing. It's a combination of things. The report specifically points to a subdued economy, heightened uncertainty, and the ongoing cost of living pressures. In other words, even with the lower prices, buyers still aren't rushing into the market. And that is the problem here because the entire recovery story that ### [2:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM&t=128s) Why Interest Rates Aren’t the Story Anymore depends on demand returning to the market. Now, you could just assume that interest rates are the main driver here. I wouldn't blame you for that. TD does push back on that idea, though. They state interest rates are expected to be a largely neutral factor for the outlook in 2026. This chart shows why. The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on hold and bond yields, which drive mortgage rates aren't moving much either. So, this is not a rate shock story anymore. ### [2:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM&t=155s) The Population Shift & Rental Demand It's something more than that. And one of the biggest shifts that we've seen is our population. In the report, TD notes that Canada's population declined last year for the first time since Confederation, driven by losses in Ontario and BC, and that is a big deal when it comes to housing here. Demand in Canada has been heavily supported by population growth. We can see that slowdown very clearly here, especially in Ontario and British Columbia, and that is already feeding through into the overall market. The report states that softer rental demand and falling rents are discouraging investor activity in both provinces. So we have fewer renters, we have lower rent, we have less demand, and that is definitely a very different dynamic from what we saw just a few years ago during the pandemic years. Now I want to look at prices. You ### [3:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM&t=202s) The Affordability Paradox would expect probably that falling prices would be bringing buyers back, but TD suggests just the opposite, at least in the short term. They write, "Falling prices are likely keeping potential buyers sidelined as they wait for a clearer bottom. " So, think about that for just a second. We normally think falling prices are going to bring buyers in, but they don't always increase demand. And in this case, I think what we're seeing is they are delaying demand. Prices are falling in Ontario and BC, but demand is definitely not responding because buyers are waiting, and that really matters here. The report adds, "Pent up demand has yet to reemerge as quickly as previously expected. " So, the recovery just keeps getting moved forward, and there's ### [4:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM&t=243s) The Condo Imbalance: GTA Focus nowhere that that's more obvious than in condos. TD states, "The GTA condo market remains the weakest in the country with elevated supply needing to be absorbed before prices stabilize. " We can see here the rising active condo listings. So, supply is building, but demand isn't keeping pace, and that imbalance is going to take a little bit of time before it resolves. Until it does, we're going to see prices remain under pressure. Now, if we pull back just a little bit, the regional picture is very different depending on where you look. ### [4:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM&t=273s) Regional Winners & Losers Ontario and BC clearly the weakest. Home sales in both of those provinces are stuck at low levels. This chart reinforces that conditions are weakest in the GTA and surrounding regions, but there are other parts of the country that are holding up a bit better. If we look across the prairies, the story definitely is more balanced. On that note, TD says conditions remained tighter in Manitoba and Saskatchewan where supply growth has been more limited. We see here stronger sales to listing ratios in those provinces and relatively better affordability is supporting the demand. Now there's also ### [5:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM&t=305s) The Energy Wild Card a wild card here that we can't ignore and that is energy prices. The report notes that oil prices have soared amid Middle East tensions and that has more regional effects. Higher prices are actually a net positive for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. In Alberta, TD estimates that home prices could be 1% higher by the end of 2026 due to stronger oil prices. But for the rest of the country, the higher energy costs would actually serve to reduce purchasing power and that of course can uh weigh on housing demand. So even when you look at the macro factors, they're pulling in different directions depending on the region within the country. In Atlantic, Canada, the outlook is relatively stronger. For example, TV expects Newfoundland and Labrador to post the strongest price growth in the region this year. This chart shows the projected outperformance there. Also, when you factor in the tighter supply, the better affordability, and that energy exposure, Quebec sits somewhere in the middle. The report specifically says that deteriorated affordability, a soft economy, and rapidly cooling jobs should weigh on home sales and average home prices. We see here how that economic slowdown sort of feeds into the housing prices. So the obvious question now is what does this all add up to if we look at it um in aggregate? Well, at the ### [6:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM&t=382s) 2026 National Price Forecasts national level, the outlook remains weak. No question about that. This table shows house prices uh in the various regions. They're expected to be roughly flat nationally at 0. 3% in 2026. A couple of outliers here. We see Ontario projected to decline 4%, British Columbia declining 1. 02%. And then you can see on the table here the various regions where there's actually some growth that's expected when we look across the year. So what we're seeing here across the country as in aggregate is not a rebound. It's more of a stagnation. But then we look at the ### [6:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM&t=416s) Looking Ahead: The 2027 Rebound? potential turning point if we look ahead to 2027. The report is projecting improved economic and labor market conditions, waning uncertainty, and affordability gains from prior price declines in Ontario and BC should support a rebound in Canadian home sales from their 2026 lows. In other words, the recovery is still expected. It's just later than it's previously thought that it would happen. Even then though, we're looking at uh the expectation of very modest gains. The key takeaways ### [7:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc2j2Pb6mKM&t=445s) Key Takeaways & Final Thoughts from this report. First of all, the housing slowdown is definitely deepening, not stabilizing. Secondly, lower prices alone, that's obviously not going to be enough to bring buyers back with all the uncertainty out there and the cost pressures remaining where they are. Uh demand is being delayed, but not destroyed, but the timing does matter for prices. And fourth here, Canada's housing market is becoming more regional with energy, migration, affordability driving very different outcomes across the provinces. So, we're not in a crash here. We're also not in a recovery here. I'm going to call it just a pause, right? And if you look at that from the perspective of the housing market, that would last longer than a lot of people expect or hope. Now, hopefully this gives you some more insight, helps clear up what's happening with Canadian housing right now. Um, if you have any thoughts on whether this is just a delay or whether there's something more structural, I'd be curious to hear them. Leave your comments below. As always, I will say thank you for watching this video and we'll see you in the next --- *Источник: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/45799*