# The Market Is Pricing the Wrong Outcome

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** Andrei Jikh
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuId_BuOWSQ
- **Дата:** 03.05.2026
- **Длительность:** 1:35
- **Просмотры:** 35,263
- **Источник:** https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/49485

## Транскрипт

### Segment 1 (00:00 - 01:00) []

Why does this gap exist and what does it mean? And the reason the gap exists is because the people who need actual oil right now are paying whatever it takes to get it. But the paper market is still pretending everything is fine. How come? The theory is that it's because the paper markets are being used as a mechanism to suppress the price of oil psychologically to calm the markets down. Here's a chart from JP Morgan. It shows that spread going back to 2008. And for almost 20 years, those two prices, paper oil and physical oil, basically moved together. They were maybe a dollar or two apart, maybe $5 in a crisis. But the gap right now is way outside of anything we've ever seen. And the last time something even close to this happened was during co when oil went negative for a very short time. That's what economists called a demand collapse when nobody was buying anything because nobody was traveling. This is the opposite. This is a supply emergency. Now, unfortunately, peace talks and negotiations have failed, which means the war is technically not over, but the White House is taking a victory lap and the stock market is coming back up. We're told everything is going to be fine and the US just became the world's gas station again. But the data is telling us something is going very wrong. And I think the worst of it probably hasn't hit us at the gas pump yet. The effects are starting to be felt in different parts of the world, but not in the US