# Investment Analyst Reacts to Finance TikToks - Prediction Markets and More

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** The Plain Bagel
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3k9XF9b-MQ
- **Дата:** 02.05.2026
- **Длительность:** 23:21
- **Просмотры:** 160,480

## Описание

Get your free trial with Blinkist (today's sponsor) and save an additional 30%. Go to http://blinkist.com/bagel.

My name is Richard Coffin, I'm an investment analyst with my Chartered Financial Analyst and Certified Financial Planner designations, registered with the Ontario Securities Commission as a portfolio manager.

DISCLAIMER:
This channel is for education purposes only and is not affiliated with any financial institution, although Richard does work as an employee for an investment manager. Richard Coffin does not provide recommendations on The Plain Bagel - those looking for investment advice should seek out a registered professional. Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers

## Содержание

### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3k9XF9b-MQ) Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)

Hey everyone, it's Richard. You're watching the Plain Bagel. Welcome to Investment Analyst Reviews, Investing Tik Toks, part 12 or 30. Not so sure anymore. We've done a couple of these at this point, and the more I do, the more of myself I lose, the harder it is to keep track of time. Uh, today we'll be covering some finance Tik Toks as per usual. And I've been inspired to revisit the platform with my recent video on prediction markets, having stumbled upon a new genre of finance Tik Toks, prediction market traders, people talking about how to make money on platforms like Call Sheet and Poly Market. And as you'd expect, there's been a lot of uh juicy content that that's come with that. Uh now, for those new to the channel, welcome. My name is Richard. I'm a registered portfolio manager. Uh I manage investments for a living. I'm a CFA charter holder and CFP professional. And today we'll be covering some finance Tik Toks to give our input and thoughts a general review of the Tik Toks uh with the hope of trying to be constructive. There are a lot of great Tik Toks out there. There's also a lot of sketchy or uh more reckless stuff. So, in parsing through this, my hope is that we walk away knowing a bit more about finance and economics uh with the input we give. A quick thank you to today's sponsor, Blinkist. Stick around for a free trial and exclusive discount code. And without further ado, let's hop into it. I'm a full-time Poly Market trader and a lot of people don't understand how you can make a full-time living on Poly Market. But let me explain. So Poly Market is just prediction markets and a lot of people think prediction markets is gambling, but it's not gambling. It's predicting based on news, based on information, and having an edge. So just quickly for the uninitiated, prediction markets, this relatively new platform or at least in the current sense that we know them where people are allowed basically mostly in the US to bet on pretty much anything. You have contracts on everything from will Jesus return to do aliens exist? A lot of sports betting basically happens on these platforms. Uh but it's also being presented as a way for people to make money, right? To bet on things that you have an edge or insider information on. Well, hold on. So, you're not supposed to. It's very much illegal and that's one of the big controversies around prediction markets, but that's how some people are using the platforms. The problem is that a these platforms, while they argue that they're a financial exchange, so they shouldn't be subject to gambling laws. They just advertise themselves as a casino. Basically, that's how a lot of their marketing comes across. And B, when it comes to uh people talking about how profitable it is to trade on the platform, we have some data on that. And it turns out that most people lose money. Uh it's very similar to day trading in that sense where yes, some people might make money uh with the practice. On average, people don't. — Here's one market I'm in. Will Trump release Epstein files by December 19th? Every news article is saying that Trump's DOJ won't release the full Epstein files on Friday as required by legislation, but they will release a partial batch. Easy 10% gain. That's how easy it is. It's prediction markets. You're just placing trades based on the news and the information that you have we have currently is that they are going to release some Epstein files today. And then you just repeat that process with a bunch of different markets and you make a lot of money. Join my discord if you want to learn more about poly market. — So listen, these types of prediction markets are very young. Yes, there might be some sort of mispricing or arbitrage opportunity that sophisticated traders are able to take advantage of, but there's no edge with this strategy, right? This guy talks about trading with an edge. He doesn't have any insight into the Epstein files, right? He he's using very general news headlines, and that might make it sound appealing, right? This guy made a quick 10% off of a very likely outcome. But you have to realize that the way prediction market contracts work is if you're betting on high probability events. You have a capped upside, in this case 10%. But a fairly large downside of 100% of whatever you invested. So if you invest $100, you could gain $10 or lose the whole $100 you put up. So there's this asymmetric profile of returns. Yes, you might randomly do well if you follow this type of strategy, but only takes a few fails to lose all the money you've gained, if not potentially even more. So, people really want to get into prediction markets, you know, that's totally up to you. Uh, but I do view this as gambling. There's no edge here you have versus everyone else on the platform. You're rolling the dice, and the odds might be good on any single roll, but you're hoping the whole time that the odd contract doesn't just completely wipe you out. Given how rampant insider trading has seemingly been with prediction markets, you have to be very careful kind of diving into the space. This is exactly how you are going to make a ton of money off of this war happening in the Middle East if you do this one thing. — Jesus. Oh man, what a time to be alive. — Everybody watches the headlines. Smart investors watch the contracts. And that is what you can do, too. Modern warfare runs on missiles and missiles are single use. And in the first 24 hours of war, a thousand missiles were fired. That's not just strategy. That's inventory that eventually needs to be replaced and fast. So who builds them? Lheed Martin. They're one of the largest US defense contractors and a major missile supplier and they are deeply tied to government

### [5:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3k9XF9b-MQ&t=300s) Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)

spending. When orders need to be replenished, in this case, you know, we just had a thousand missiles get fired at Iran, then somebody has to benefit from this because their production ramps up. This is a long-term investment strategy. You need to buy and hold for the next 12 months a little bit of Loheed Martin or otherwise known as LMT. — Sorry, long-term is relative, I guess. Uh generally if you say long-term in the sense of investing, usually in the industry, we're thinking five plus 10 plus years, right? Also, this isn't a good long-term strategy because you're buying a stock off of a near-term event, right? Um and the problem is this video was posted March 1st. That's already too late. Yeah. Loheed Martin's stock to date has actually fallen since when this video was posted. It was actually pretty flat year to date despite there being two pretty major US military actions this year. So that's the problem with trading off of news headlines is that unless you have the nancond trading advantage, you you're not really going to beat the market trading off of news headlines because everyone else in the market is just as aware of the information that you're coming across. Yes, generally defense stocks do well during uh periods of turmoil like this, but a war alone doesn't guarantee returns even if they prove to be beneficial to revenues for the company because there are many other factors that are going to influence the sock's price. They should never invest for the long term based on near-term headlines, right? You have to understand the business. You have to know how much money they make, what they do, um outside of just kind of these very superficial facts. Don't go get a job. Just do this instead because before AI completely takes this over, you can absolutely print doing this. Go to the Poly Market website and click on these three lines and then find leaderboard. This is where you can publicly see every single top trader on Poly Market, how much money they're making, and what trades they're taking. You're going to sort by who's made the most money in the past week. And then one by one, go paste all the top profiles into ChatGBT or NAI. So, these are proven to be profitable traders. You already know that they're making money and now you're just going to copy them. Ask chat GBT what is the most common trade taken between all top 50 or top 100 traders that you pasted. So instead of just copying one trader who's made a million dollars. That's going to give you a consensus of what all the sharp money is doing. Now Poly Market is view only in the United States. If you actually want to lock in a trade on Poly Market, you're going to have to download the Poly Market app. Now the only problem with this is you can download the app and sign up. But once you do that, you're going to get put into a line of over 1. 1 million people on the wait list, which is taking people months and months to get through. So, if you don't want to wait in that I'm about to put you boys on to this developer invite code, deev20. This code will let you skip that 1. 1 million person weight list and immediately get access to Poly Market in the United States. So, it's actually a good example of a lot of these prediction markets have kind of set themselves up with these referral systems um that get them a lot of not free marketing but independent marketing I guess from people like this who talk about how great poly market is because with that code they actually get a share of your trading fees that polyarket earns. The marketing side of stuff is really crazy with prediction markets but you know this idea of copy trading it's interesting because we have seen that with traditional stocks as well. this idea of just finding people like even you know Warren Buffett and the like and just copying whatever trades they do. But specifically when it comes to prediction markets, there are some issues to be aware of, right? For one, these can be really thinly traded markets. Uh your buy orders might move the price quite a bit and that might be taken advantage of by people who are being copy traded, especially because with Poly Market, a lot of these traders are anonymous. And two, even if these are successful traders, there's a chance that copying them might not lead you to having the same return that they experience because it only really works if you're the only one copying their trades, which because this is being posted on TikTok, probably isn't the case. If you have the successful trader buy a yes contract on something and then you come in afterwards and buy that yes contract, you might be following hundreds of other people who have already bought that yes contract and bid up the price so that now you're buying it at a premium price to what the initial trader bought it for. And then if they sell the contract, that can push the price down. All these hundreds of people sell their contract before you get your order fulfilled and then you're selling low, right? Because now the price is being depressed by all these orders. And just generally my own view is that you shouldn't buy individual stocks unless you understand the companies. Traditional research we have is that fund managers aren't typically able to maintain outperformance either. So following traders who have done well historically doesn't mean they're going to continue to do well. And if you're not someone looking to invest in individual stocks, then I still don't think copy trading really makes sense. It's better to go with a managed solution if you don't fancy yourself a trader or you know active investor. Um you know there are passive ETFs and things of that sort that you can look into. might be some useful applications of copy trading, but I think a lot of people view it as a cheat code of sorts. There's still a lot of risk and things to be aware of. So, I wouldn't view it that way. Before getting to the rest of the Tik Toks, a quick message for our sponsor, Blinkist. When it comes to learning topics like finance or economics, we all know that beyond uh

### [10:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3k9XF9b-MQ&t=600s) Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00)

Tik Tok, books are an excellent resource. However, personally, as someone with 20 books on my to read list, all of which have to do with finance or economics, uh there's a lot of content that I'm just likely not going to get to. Uh it's taken me a long time to get through this list, but that's where today's sponsor, Blinkist, comes in. Uh Blinkist is an app that takes non-fiction books and distills them into 15minute summaries that you can read or listen to, even if you're offline. Meaning that you can glean some of the key messages while you work out, fold laundry, cook food, uh lose money on a prop trading firm, any of the activities you want. Uh, you can now also listen into some of the key lessons of a book. Personally, I'm a big fan of audio apps and I view Blinkist as being supplemental. I've used it to review books before I read them and to again touch on subjects that I probably just won't get to. They have Blinks on great finance books like the intelligent investor, the psychology of money and the little book of common sense investing while also covering a slew of other subjects ranging from philosophy to history, science to entrepreneurship. So, for me, it's a great way to poke my head out of finance. But if you want to poke your head in, uh, again, lots of great content there, too. And with over 9,000 titles, there's a massive collection to peruse. And the best part is that if you'd like to try Blinkist, you can get a free trial and save an additional 30% by going to blinkist. com/bagel. Invest in oil right now. $100 will be $7,52343 by May 14th. What? That's such a specific number. And that's like it's like a week from now. two weeks from now. Um, how genuinely the all-time historic high for oil prices was $150 US per barrel. With the conflict in Iran, we've seen about a fifth of the world's oil supply being impacted uh by the conflict. There's just no path for it to skyrocket by this ridiculous amount. Even oil producers are only up about 40% on oil's 80% roughly year-to- date run since it usually takes time for these businesses to bolster output. There are some unique examples, but uh generally speaking, it takes a long time to sort of ramp up production. So, again, another kind of bit of nonsense. Also, how does this have nearly 700,000 likes, this picture? I I'm in the wrong field. I I'm clearly doing this wrong. Anyway, that's enough of a rant on this one photo. This one picture's got me riled up, but uh next Tik Tok. — Y'all want to learn how to turn your little tax return into 10, 20, 30, 40, 50,000? Clock in. I'm going to show you how to do it. Most of you guys don't have a lot of money in savings. And most Americans live paycheck to paycheck. But everyone has tax money coming in. Correct? I know y'all do. Especially y'all single moms. I have single moms that are friends. They get hella money back. Yeah. Guess what you're going to do? You're going to invest it in the stock market and you're going to buy tech and AI companies within the S& P 500. Take your little $2,000 you get from the TA from your tax return and you're going to turn that into 30,000. Hi, my name is Britney. If y'all are new here, sit down. I'm going to teach y'all how to do it. I turned $2,000 into $110,000 in the stock market. I invested in nothing but tech and AI companies. I do not work a 9 to5. I am financially free 28-year-old. Um, I travel every other week and I make a roughly 15 to $20,000 a month profit. She — She really uh checked all the boxes there. All the finance guru starter pack uh checklist. — When you get your tax return, you're not going to spend it. It's the first thing we're going to do. Okay. Second do, you're going to download the Fidelity app. Okay. It's in the app store. It's called Fidelity. Then you're going to create an account. Anything that has asks you if you would like to make a mutual account, mutual fund account, you say no. Okay? You're going to do the FCSH account. Once you get that account, it's going to ask you to verify your social security, all that stuff. Right? Then you're going to deposit your tax return money into the app. Then you're going to click the search bar on the app. Search all of the stocks that you want to buy. Okay? Now, you're like, "Well, Britt, I don't know what to buy. I'm I made an account. I want to start investing. I have my tax return, but I don't know what to buy. Invest in tech and AI companies. And if you don't know these specific tech and AI companies you want to invest in, click the link in my bio. The top 20 stocks that I bought that turned my 2,000 into over a 100,000 is in the link in my bio. Get that. So then once you buy those stocks, okay? You're going to sit on them. Yeah, it. Like I said, like a savings account. Do not pull the money. Leave it in there for like a year, six months. Hell, six months. cuz I know y'all are impatient as hell. Do 6 months. You're going to thank me later. me. And then your little two three $4,000 tax return you got. Yeah. Now you're looking at it. You're looking at a 20 ball. $20,000. You're like the thing is this is almost good advice. It's so close. And you know, there are

### [15:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3k9XF9b-MQ&t=900s) Segment 4 (15:00 - 20:00)

aspects that are good. Like sure, if uh people are struggling to find money to invest and they're able to save their tax return by not spending on discretionary stuff, great. You know, that can be a good starting point. Um but really reckless delivery. And you know, I kind of hate that appealing to emotions, talking about single mothers, people struggling, and then talking about, you know, 10xing your money over 6 months. Well, wearing a fluffy house coat and talking about your lavish lifestyle — boarding. The week before that, I was in the Dominican Republic. and then in two weeks I'm going to Tahiti and Bora Boro. — Also, I don't know where she's getting this idea of of, you know, again, 10xing your money over 6 months buying S& P tech stocks. Like, no, no disrespect to the S& P 500, but um you know, the even the tech sector over the past 5 years with everything with AI and the runup we've seen has only seen and I use that term loosely, but only seen a return of 20% a year, which is phenomenal. Uh, but it's not 10xing your money over six months. Yes, some stocks have done better than that, but hindsight is 2020 and chances are you're not going to know which ones are going to do that in the future. Just investing in one sector after it's had this massive runup uh is kind of questionable. And I know some people might justify it to say, look, if this what it takes to get people investing, then maybe you can defend it. But these high expectations really set people up for failure, right? Because if you promise someone, you know, to 10x their money over a short period of time and then they go and they only earn 10 or even a good 20%, then often times what you see is they'll take on more risk to try and achieve the return that they're expecting from their investments because that's what they were told they should experience. Yeah, she's selling her stock picks for 20 bucks. I've actually had the idea of buying people's courses and stock lists like this and then kind of dissecting them. Um, but I can't even for like 20 bucks. It just it feels like such a betrayal even to give that money. If you think about it, you have like these account sizes where it's $28 for a $2,000 account. Think about the ROI you can get. And that's why prop trading is one of the most popular ways in 2025 to be able to be financially free. And I say financially free not in terms of the millions, but making a $2,000 return per month is more than enough. Do you think it's possible? 2% per month. If you can use a $100,000 account and make 2% per month on your account per month, that is $2,000 per month. To me, that is more than enough. I'm not saying that can, you know, take you around the world private. I'm not telling you like all of this stuff. But let's take things back. And that's why I want my content to really resonate with you guys. It's a little bit is better than nothing. And then once that little bit is consistent, we compound and increase that little bit into more over a period of time. So, prop trading, if you aren't familiar, is when a company gives you money to trade with and then splits the returns with you if you do well. Uh, the way it generally works is there's kind of two phases. The first is this qualifier or challenge of sorts uh where you have to prove that you're a good trader. There's usually very strict parameters where if you lose even a small amount of money, it can disqualify you. But if you're able to pass the evaluation or challenge, then you can get access to a so-called funded account where the company gives you money to trade with and again splits the profits with you. Um, which all sounds great for someone who might be interested in trading until you realize that most prop trading firms make most of their money from that qualifier fee, from the fee you pay to try things in a demo account first because the disqualifier, you know, factor like the loss limit or whatever is so strict. like it's very easy to fail. So, a lot of these businesses are just designed to lure in suckers on the promise of this funded account where you know you'll make all this money with very low risk of your own capital uh when really they're just making money off of you paying to try it out. Generally, day trading or swing trading even not profitable as it is. Uh so, you throw in prop trading and you're just kind of spending money to oftentimes fail these challenges. and making 2% monthly. It's being presented as this tame idea, but it would still make you one of the best investors globally if you could do that consistently. So, still not really that reasonable of an expectation. And of course, this guy has a prop trading. Man, it's ruthless on TikTok. You got to be so careful with conflicts of interest. Not to say that um someone who owns a business in that space isn't telling the truth when they go online and market it. Uh but it does frame it differently, right? When you know that information, listening to them. Whenever you're consuming content, uh there's three things to look into. I stole this from the CFA Institute. They have a paper called the influencer appeal. Uh but always look into uh motivation, so conflicts of interest. Uh consistency, so how their information matches up to other sources. And then qualifications, right? What gives this person the credential to uh talk about how easy it is to make money trading or investing? And you know, is it provable? Can you prove that a lady turned $2,000 into hundreds of thousands? If not, probably best to move on. — The rich don't save cash. They do

### [20:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3k9XF9b-MQ&t=1200s) Segment 5 (20:00 - 23:00)

something far smarter. And if you don't learn it, you'll never build real wealth. Most people think having a big bank balance means security. They feel proud when they see cash just sitting there. But the truth, cash is the worst place to park your wealth. Inflation eats it alive year after year. The wealthy know cash isn't an asset. It's a tool. They don't hold it. They move it. They convert it into things that either grow in value or produce income. Real estate, businesses, stocks, crypto, and of course, gold. Here's the difference. Poor and middle class save for comfort. The wealthy deploy cash for growth. They let their money work harder than they do. So, if you want to think like the wealthy, here's what you do. Number one, keep only what you need in cash for emergencies and daily expenses. Two, take the rest and convert it into assets, especially ones that survive inflation, like gold. — Why does he keep pushing gold? Ah, okay. That would be why. Within one tap, we got the answer. — Three, remember this rule. Cash loses value. Assets build value. The rich don't get wealthy by saving. They get wealthy by owning. And until you shift from holding cash to holding assets, you'll always be stuck trading time for money. — So there are aspects to that are true. Yes, once you have things like a rainy day fund um you know that's a very crude gauge of that 3 to six months of your income um to cover unexpected expenses and things like that, then it's a good idea to look into investing and ways to grow your wealth. uh because getting to your retirement nest egg or your other financial goals is a lot easier when you invest. So, I can kind of get behind that. But one, there are wealthy people who do hoard a lot of cash and do prefer security, right? Just buy things like treasury bonds or park their money into savings accounts that are outpacing inflation to preserve their wealth. And secondly, when you talk about gold as an investment class, we we've touched on it here and there, uh but you have to be aware that there are risks with investing in gold. I know some people have this mental model of gold being this ultimate asset that is just immune from risk, but we've had extended periods where gold's price has decreased in value even during periods of higher inflation at times. And I don't even think it's that popular with wealthier households. I know that some studies have shown that stocks and just general business investments tend to be the larger share of sort of the allocation that wealthier households have because it's more tangible where the growth for that money is coming from. Right? If you put $100 into a business that makes $10 a year, that's your source of return. Whereas for gold, you're kind of just hoping demand will continually increase more than supply, which isn't a guarantee. So again, generally good to look into investing once you've covered your bases from a kind of budgeting standpoint. Uh but, you know, I'm more partial to stocks and taking that more diversified approach with your investing rather than just parking all your money into one asset like gold. Anyway, those are the Tik Toks for today's Tik Tok review video. Thank you guys for joining me today. I hope we did manage to make uh the content constructive. Again, the hope is really to have some uh information to walk away with. And if there's any other content or media of sorts you'd like me to review, feel free to leave uh suggestions in the comments down below. Thanks again for joining me. And as always, be safe out

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*Источник: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/49516*