# Tesla Stock HUGE Buying Window is Open (Closing Fast) ## Метаданные - **Канал:** Everything Money - **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YAO5OMzEqo - **Дата:** 04.05.2026 - **Длительность:** 22:55 - **Просмотры:** 3,746 - **Источник:** https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/49532 ## Описание Tesla is no longer being talked about as a car company. Investors, analysts, and Elon Musk himself are framing this as an AI and robotics story. And if they are right — the entire valuation framework changes. Today we are going to find out which version of Tesla you are actually buying at today’s prices. 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Today, we are going to find out which version of Tesla you are actually buying at today's prices. Now, let me start by giving you the bull case the way that Elon tells it himself because I think you need to hear it fully and fairly before we go in and examine it. On Tesla's Q1 2026 earnings call, which was April 22nd, Elon Musk said something that tells you everything about how he sees this company moving forward. He announced that Tesla is converting part of its Fremont, California factory, the one that currently builds Model S and X vehicles into an Optimus robot factory. He said, and I am quoting him directly when I say this, I think it's time to bring the Model S and X to an end with an honorable discharge because we're moving into a future that is based fully on autonomy. Guys, think about what that means. Tesla is taking apart a car production line, which costs hundreds of billions of dollars to build, and replacing it with a robot factory. This is not some PowerPoint slide that gets shown in an earnings call. This is a factory floor being ripped apart and rebuilt. Elon said he expects Optimus V3 production to start somewhere in late July or early August of this year. He is keeping the details close to his vest because he says competitors are literally doing frame by frame analysis of everything Optimus reveals and copying their design. Exactly. on Optimus itself. Musk said during the Q1 call, "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product, but probably the biggest product ever created. " And he remains convinced of that conclusion 100%. Now, his next plan is to have Optimus used outside of Tesla by sometime next year. That means in 2027, third-party companies and eventually consumers could be buying or renting Optimus robots. As I think we always see with Elon, the scale he is imagining is almost impossible for someone like you or me to even picture. He has talked about eventually producing tens of millions of humanoid robots every single year. On Roboaxi, Tesla is moving even faster. As of right now, the company has expanded unsupervised robo taxi services to parts of Dallas, Houston, even in Austin, Texas. Unsupervised means literally no safety driver in the car whatsoever. Robo taxi miles nearly doubled in Q1 alone. Cyber Cab, the dedicated robo taxi vehicle, is on the schedule for production according to Elon. And Tesla revealed it's designing its own AI chip called AI5, completing the final stage of the chip design process very shortly. And guys, here's what really excites me as an investment analyst. The Q1 numbers themselves from Tesla were far stronger than anybody expected. Revenue of $22. 4 billion, up 16% year-over-year, crushing estimates. adjusted EPS of 40 cents or so versus 35 cents which was expected and gross margins came in at a whopping 21. 7% versus the 17% Wall Street was previously modeling. That is a significant beat. The car business is performing better than people actually expected. Now, here's the Tesla bullcase for you in one simple sentence. Tesla is no longer going to be a car company. The narrative is that it will quickly become an AI and robotics company overnight. The most ambitious product transition any automaker. Screw that. Any product, any company has ever attempted in history. Now, you have to remember it can't all be sunshine and rainbows. There are potential bare cases as with any investment. Now, here is where I want to be very honest with you. I want to break it down for you because Elon Musk has one of the most extraordinary track records of eventually being right about really big ideas. That being said, he also has a history of setting the bar really high and the achievements still being pretty spectacular, but not quite to the level that he promised. Let me give you a couple examples to lay it out for you of goals that he's set in recent years. So, first in 2016, Elon said that all Tesla vehicles being produced had the hardware to be completely self-driving. In 2019, he said Tesla would have 1 million robo taxis on the road by the end of 2020. Now, on top of that, how about 2021? He said Optimus would be ready to go in 2022, ready to be deployed. Now, guys, I think Elon ### Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00) [5:00] Musk is brilliant. you cannot question the level of IQ that he has, whether you like him or not. That being said, none of those things happened on the timelines that he actually promised or to the level he promised. The story keeps being very real. The timeline slips sometimes, but guys, the successful innovation is still very real and it is there. And now, here's something very specific for you that's happening right now. Tesla has not filed for all the permits it needs in California to operate a commercial robo taxi service. California happens to be one of the most important markets in the world. The regulatory process for autonomous vehicles is very detailed and very slow. You cannot launch at scale without going through the required process. The fact that the permits have not been filed even as Austin now Dallas and Houston see limited rollouts is a meaningful gap you need to go understand as investor between the story that's being told and the reality that you're living through. And then here's another piece, the capex number. So the capex from this week's earnings call, the Tesla CFO said 2026 capex will be over $25 billion, guys. $2 $25 billion. That level of spending will result in massive negative free cash flow for the rest of the year, basically guaranteed. Tesla is going to be burning cash for the foreseeable future as it builds out robot factories, AI chips, and cyber cab production lines, all simultaneously, all happening at the same time. Great businesses though, sometimes they burn cash during transformations, right? That's not unheard of. It's not necessarily going to be a future bare case, a future negative, but negative free cash flow at that scale on top of an already stretched valuation is a real risk for shareholders to at least consider. Now, the second potential bear case for you, while everyone else is focused solely on the AI narrative, the actual car business before the most recent earnings has been under serious pressure. Margins number one have compressed dramatically from their highs. That goes gross margin and net margin. Tesla is facing real competition at this point. For example, from BYD in China who overtook them as the largest EV producer in the world and also from a few other companies in the US from a growing number of EV makers globally who are trying to close this technology gap that Tesla has had for years. Now, here's the problem with an AI multiple on a car company whose core business has been shrinking over recent years. The AI story requires you to look past the current fundamentals entirely. There's no doubt about that. It requires you to say, "Ignore the deliveries, ignore the margins, ignore the competition that we've seen in play over recent years, and just trust that FSD and Optimus will deliver sometime in the future. And once it does, you will do very well. " Now, here's what you need to remember. That's a high risk that you're taking, right guys? Um I know it's Elon, but you have to understand the downside of any investment you make. There's always upside and there's always downside because if FSD does not achieve full autonomy on the timeline the market's actually assuming, maybe Optimus doesn't ship at the scale Elon's projecting, well then you're left holding a car company at a high growth software company valuation. And I need to be honest with you, that will be an extremely painful place for you to be. Now, the third bare case is about the competitive landscape for the AI and robotics vision itself. Ignore the car company. We're past that. Elon talks about Optimus and FSD as if Tesla has no serious competition. That being said, I think Google, parent company Alphabet, would disagree. The competition so far is coming heavily from Whimo, which I know for a fact Paul has actually used and had experience with. I've heard from multiple people across the country, especially in Arizona, that they have used Whimo and actually enjoyed the ride and the comfort of it. That company, as I mentioned, is owned by Google and is already operating their commercial robo taxi service in multiple US cities and has been doing so not just this year, but for years. It processes an enormous amount of realworld driving data. Guys, Google thrives on data and always has. On top of that, companies like Figure, Boston Dynamics, and other humanoid robot companies are developing their own platforms. And the major tech companies don't think that they're just going to be left out. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have the resources that I'd argue dwarf Tesla's if they decided to enter a high margin industry. Now that being said, Tesla's advantage, one of its biggest advantages is in the fleet data that it has. Millions of cars collecting realworld driving information around the United States. Guys, that's real and ### Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00) [10:00] that actually does matter. But the question is whether the data advantage is wide enough and durable enough as we talk about the moat to justify the valuation premium the market is currently giving the company. Data alone does not win these type of competitive markets. Execution, capital, software engineering, all matter enormously, more than I can even explain. And Tesla is competing against some of the most well-resourced companies on Earth. I'm not saying they won't win. I don't think that betting against Elon Musk is a smart decision, but you have to understand what the company looks like if they don't. Now, guys, I know you've seen the title of this video. I want you to understand that it is not meant for you to take it literally. Our goal is to create better investors to give you the resources you need. So remember that when you look at those. Okay guys, the exciting part. We've heard Elon's optimistic vision. We have heard three potential bare cases the company could face. Now I want to do something I think is really valuable for you, especially for this particular stock. I want to run two completely separate stock analyzer scenarios. One where we assume the AI and robotics vision comes true. One where we assume that Elon executes at the highest level as many investors expect them to. And then after that, one where we assume Tesla remains primarily a car company. because I think the gap that you're going to see between those two outcomes tells you everything you will need to know about the risk you're taking based on the price you pay as a potential shareholder right now. So guys, I have Tesla pulled up in our software. One thing I want to point out to you because I've mentioned the importance of the price you pay for a company, right? So Tesla down here around $100 per share a few years ago is very different than Tesla back in 2122 at $450 per share. In one case, you'd have about a 3 and 1/2x on your money. In the other case, you would still be sitting on losses almost 5 years later. So guys, I have our eight pillars pulled up. These are meant to show you a snapshot of the business, the financials that are at the core of what we look at in our process. So you can see on Tesla we have a high return on invested capital. That means the money reinvested back in the business is high is earning strong rates of return. That's excellent for shareholders long term. They have a manageable amount of debt meaning that the amount of total debt that they have can be paid off in less than 5 years using their free cash flow which is the lifeblood of the business. On top of that we have growing cash flow, growing revenue and growing profit. So the only two X's outside of shares outstanding being slightly up, which doesn't concern us too much, are valuation, and that's the big piece that stock analyzers are going to play into because it's a question of what future growth looks like and what future margins look like for this current car company trying to transition. Now guys, I know this is a lot, right? I remember 6 years ago or so when I first started learning about investing, this would have been a ton. It would have been overwhelming. But that's why we created our key metrics PDF which have everything you see on the screen right now explained to you in simple terms so that you can learn what you need at the foundation of your future investing approach. Now guys remember the reason that everything money exists, the reason that we're making these videos on YouTube is not to hand you potential ideas. It's to teach you how to fish. That's what allows so many of our community members to sleep soundly at night knowing that they have a process developed to build wealth over long periods of time. That's peace of mind that has almost no limit on cost. Okay guys, another thing that we like to look at just as a reference point, right? We don't want to take these as 100% true, but analyst estimates. And what I would tell you is, and we actually just had a recent conversation in our Everything Money Group chat about Tesla's EPS chart because it has gone from up here to down over 90%. That being said, what analysts are expecting right here is that it will recover. And that's probably the reason that the stock is not down 90% as well. Right? We're still at 375 or 380, which is not as far off of highs as you would think if you saw the EPS chart. You can see right here they expect EPS to go up over 5x. In addition to that, they expect revenue to grow massively. Now, what I would tell you is this is probably factoring in the AI story, the autonomous driving, the robotics that they have coming in the future. I would not assume that this is just the car company and that all of that is just added benefit. So guys, I have pulled up right now the most used tool by our users over 1 million times per year, the stock analyzer. So the first thing that we want to do is make good assumptions, conservative, realistic assumptions about the future of the business's ### Segment 4 (15:00 - 20:00) [15:00] revenue, profit, and what multiple it will trade at the end of a 10-year period. Now guys, for the bull case, which we're going to do first, we are going to build assumptions that reflect what happens if Elon ends up being right. If FSD achieves full autonomy, the robo taxi network works out perfectly, Optimus generates real revenue and Tesla is valued like an AI and robotics platform company moving forward, not the car company that it's been in recent years. So guys, I have done some research. I'm going to go in and put in my estimates and kind of explain them to you as I walk through. Remember, these are highlevel bullish assumptions on this company. We are being aggressive about the future. We will do the counteractive argument after this. So, first up, we're going to go on the low end 20% revenue growth, high end of 35% and a middle of 27 12%. Now, profit, we are going to say that margins expand massively. Remember this, currently margins are around 7 to 10% at best. We are going to say that they are going to expand to over 20%. Which is the low-end threshold of what software companies typically see. So we are going to go with 20 25 and 30% margins for Tesla moving forward. And then the final piece, the fair multiple, right? We start at the long-term average of the market at around 17 times earnings. We pay premium for great businesses. We pay a lower multiple for poor businesses. If Tesla performs like this, I can promise you it will be considered a premium business. So, let's talk about multiples. I am going to start on the low end at 25 times earnings. I'm going to go with 25, 30, and 35. Guys, I know that this is really outrageous, right? These are really high assumptions on this company, but again, we're trying to understand the two tail ends of things, right? We're trying to understand what the range of potential future outcomes looks like. And then finally bottom 9% returns across the board. Based on the assumptions that I put in, I would hope that Tesla comes across all green. So guys, as you can see, if that tail end situation, that 5 to 10% at best likelihood of Tesla achieving on every level takes place, yeah, as you'd hope, you're looking at somewhere between 11 and a 35% return annualized for the next 10 years. But remember that is not something that is guaranteed to happen or nearly anywhere guaranteed to happen. So we're going to go in and make more realistic assumptions about the future in our next stock analyzer. So you can see I've made some assumptions on Tesla. And this is something that you guys can easily learn to do with the stock analyzer. And it will save you hours on days on weeks of analysis. And here's why you need this. Now, what you just watched me do took about 4 minutes and it told me more about Tesla than most people will ever know before they would buy it based on solely a story. Most investors would have just looked at the price, maybe read a headline or two, and made a decision based on that. That's how you buy a stock and then feel sick to your stomach every night because you never really knew that it was worth the price you played in the first place. The stock analyzer changes that completely. It shows you the price where you actually get the return you're looking for, not a guess, a number that actually means something. People who use this stop making emotional, irrational decisions. They know what they own. paid for it and they know why they did that. That's what it feels like to sleep well at night. No matter what the market's doing, whether it's up, whether it's down, you don't need a finance degree. You don't need to be a math person. You just need the right tools in place. So try out the stock analyzer. $7 for seven days. Click in the link in the description and get full access today and come have a conversation with me in the community. Now guys, let's transition to the bare case. Same business, still Tesla, but we're not going to assume these incredible assumptions on growth and margins. I want to be honest with you because this is part of the art of investing, right? It's more than just a science. Everybody believes different things about the future. For me personally, I don't believe those assumptions I just put in will ever happen, but if you do, that's what the stock analyzer gives you the right to show and gives you the strength behind your decision so that at least you have conviction in it. What I'm going to do now is show you what I believe to be far more reasonable assumptions about the future. So, let's run one more stock analyzer quickly. So guys, in this scenario, Tesla probably sees some benefits of what we just talked about, but it remains primarily a car company, a strong EV company, but still a car company. So I am going to go with revenue growth of 6, 9, and 12%. Still strong. If you guys understand businesses, that is really strong growth ### Segment 5 (20:00 - 22:00) [20:00] still for a company. Profit margins, I'm going to say that they have far higher than most car companies actually have. go look at Ford or GM and see what their margins look like and compare it to what I'm putting in right now. So, I am going to go with 8, 11, and 14%. And then finally, for multiple, I'm going to go much more realistic and reasonable here, understanding that car companies, as we've seen EV competitors start to emerge, are difficult businesses, right? It's not necessarily a high barrier to entry industry. So multiples I am going to go with and you can see ROIC is not overly high in the past 1 year I am going to go with 18 20 and 22 times earnings and free cash flow and then finally my 9% desired return to determine intrinsic value and guys here's the opposite end of things so what this tells me as you can see we have not a single positive number on this board is that if you are buying Tesla today at $375 $5 per share. You better hope and pray that those bullcase assumptions that I showed you end up being true. Those end up being the future of Tesla. So guys, I don't want you to take away from this video that we're telling you that Tesla's a buy or a sell and that any stock is. What I want you to take away is that maybe you learn something about how to develop your own process, how to put the necessary knowledge and skills in place to assess a company and have actual sound reasoning behind the investments that you make each and every month. Now guys, here's the reality. The actual outcome of Tesla is probably going to be somewhere in between what you just saw. They'll probably see benefits from some of the autonomous driving and robotics that they're putting in place. the primary car business will probably still function as it's seen right now. I'm sure that Elon will continue to set big promises and he will certainly deliver to some level. But again, Paul has said this for years. He has pounded into people's brains because it's so necessary that the price you pay is what matters. You are paying a price today. It's about what value you are getting back for the dollars you are laying out. So, like I said earlier in the video, Tesla at $100 per share, the future outlook and returns looks a lot different than from $400 per share. So, just always consider that price is what you pay, but value is what you get. Now, before you guys go, Paul put together a video recently where he looked at seven stocks he thinks have the potential to outperform the MAG 7, including Tesla, over the next decade. He ran them through our entire Everything Money process. He looked at the potential that they have right now. He's not telling you that you should go buy them, but if you're looking for potential ideas to add to your portfolio and want to understand how to analyze and find stocks like this, click on the video on your screen right now to watch our most recent update.