# Tesla’s Imminent Profit Pivot πŸ’° ## ΠœΠ΅Ρ‚Π°Π΄Π°Π½Π½Ρ‹Π΅ - **Канал:** InvestAnswers - **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxDIDqKd1mM - **Π”Π°Ρ‚Π°:** 15.05.2026 - **Π”Π»ΠΈΡ‚Π΅Π»ΡŒΠ½ΠΎΡΡ‚ΡŒ:** 1:17:49 - **ΠŸΡ€ΠΎΡΠΌΠΎΡ‚Ρ€Ρ‹:** 36,419 ## ОписаниС πŸ‘‹ JOIN THE FAMILY: http://www.patreon.com/investanswers πŸ“ˆ IA MODELS: https://investanswers.io/indicators πŸ–οΈ IA RETIREMENT TOOLS: https://investanswers.io/retirement-tools 🧠 FREE INVESTOR QUIZ: https://investor-profiler.investanswers.io πŸ“¬ IA NEWSLETTER: https://investanswers.substack.com πŸͺ™ IA CRYPTO COMPENDIUM: http://investanswers.io/crypto-compendium βš™οΈ IA SCP Profiler: http://investanswers.io/scp-profiler 🌐 TradingView Referral: https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=27663 DISCLAIMER: InvestAnswers does not provide financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. 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You are solely responsible for your own financial, investing, and trading decisions. 00:00 Introduction 01:25 Tesla Rejected off $450 But Still Strong 03:48 Seasonality ## Π‘ΠΎΠ΄Π΅Ρ€ΠΆΠ°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxDIDqKd1mM) Introduction Okay, welcome everybody. This is live. We got uh a lot to talk about today. Tesla stock has climbed over the last week. We're expecting big deals are going to come soon. Elon Musk is in China with President Trump along with 16 other CEOs. Over 70 cyber cabs were spotted around Giga, Texas. And then Tesla just filed a permit for a cyber cab car wash facility, 36,000 square feet in Las Vegas. And then we have a special treat today. We'll also look at when the when to expect the massive revenue hit for Tesla's seven lines of business. We got the bulls here with us today. We got the analytical bull, the master investor, the man with the answers, James from Invest Answers. We got the bot bull, the slayer of spreadsheets, the master forecaster, Cern Basher, and we got the rational bull, also known as Mr. Incredible, the executive Jeff Lutz. Welcome everybody. How are you all doing today? Hey, Herbert. β€” All right, we got uh things are happening. Deals are being made are about to be made. I thought that by now I'd have a deal to be announced in China. We're still waiting for that to happen, but uh Elon's doing his job. He's working. He's working hard. Uh James, why don't you kick us off? What's going on with the stock? Stock has just gone up this week, but then today it's taking a breather. Uh tell us what you're seeing. β€” It was interesting as a little chart we can look at. uh it's easier for people to visualize exactly what happened. But ### [1:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxDIDqKd1mM&t=85s) Tesla Rejected off $450 But Still Strong in an incredible turn of events, Tesla actually went up $105 in just 30 days. So though that was a big rampage and it caused a lot of what I call pain of missing out, but it did get rejected clean off the 450 level. You know, 450 by the way is, you know, 10% away from alltime highs pretty much. So not far from alltime highs. You can see that in the purple line at the top of the chart here. One thing I would say is the market is bumpy. The market is rough because of oil prices and macro and now we've have 10-year bonds all screaming up higher all over the world. US, UK, etc. Japan all-time high 10-year bond as well. That's putting a dampener on risk assets. So, you got to understand the macro. The other things we can pull from this is we did bounce cleanly off that long-term support resistance line around the 330 level. If we ever have the blessing again of Tesla hitting 330 financial advice right here and I'm sure Cern will say that that's a good buy opportunity. Okay, we had that again not too long ago a month or two ago. The other thing is the red line that goes across the middle as a 200 day moving average. We're clean above that. It's about 410. And the blue is the trend. The trend is still strong despite the mean reversion back from 450 to about 430 435. So all in all uh we are still hanging in there. The question is when do we break a new alltime high? And I think that could happen in the next 3 to six months. That's the TA for today. β€” Three to six months. I thought you would say 3 to six weeks or something even certain. β€” Well, I like to sandbag stuff as well. There's one other thing. Last time I was on your show, we do this every month, Herbert. I spoke about April 9th being the bottom from a seasonality perspective, and I don't want to toot my own horn, but that's exactly what the low point was a month ago. So, uh, that's the Green Arrow, by the way. So, this is one stock that's very seasonal. But what is interesting to me about the seasonality of Tesla, we have so many tailwinds coming right now. How is that going to impact seasonality? It could be pretty wild. Over to you guys. β€” Okay. So, you're saying three to six months before all-time highs. Uh, what does the other say here? What do you think, Stern? β€” Well, it's interesting. The reality is Tesla trades in a very wide band. We've ### [3:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxDIDqKd1mM&t=228s) Seasonality looked at the way Tesla trades over the years and looked at lots of different data. Tesla tends to move very quickly when it moves up. Uh it tends to trade in a very wide range. So, uh for me, it wouldn't surprise me if we hit a new all-time high relatively quickly. Uh I'll leave it up to your audience to decide what that means. Um I don't have I don't have a prediction in terms of when it might hit the new high only that it's entirely possible in a very short period of time. Uh particularly if it's on the strength of some news perhaps out of China with FSD approval or some sign of um you know for the robot robo taxi roll out. β€” What do you guys think is driven the stock going up the last week? Uh any announcements? Is it an analyst? Is it just stock, you know, gas prices going up and now people are seeing EV sales are going up? Is there the Trump visit? Is it anything else like that or just I think it's a couple of things. The analysts that look at cars, I know it's not a car company. We've got a slide on that too in a minute. They have realized, uh-oh, it's not a car company. But those that do look at it like it's a car company, they just realized, uhoh, there is no alternative. It's a tea in a moment for Tesla because anybody buying a new car right now will not buy anything very rare they'll buy a gasoline, petrol, diesel car and they'll want to buy a car that drives itself and they can talk to Grock etc. So the forecast for the sales is completely off the hook right now for Tesla and I think the analysts have seen that. But also the clever analysts are now realizing there's so much more to Tesla and we've reached tipping points where they're generating bottom line attribution from other lines that nobody even believed were possible. Things like FSD licensing is now nearly 6% of Q1 profit. So these are the things that I think that are hitting all at once. β€” Oh, what do you think, Jeeoff? I mean, a couple things. I mean, Q1 for Tesla was better than Q1 for most automakers, and it looks like the April numbers are even better, and the momentum is continuing. And that's what the stock is, too. It's a it is a momentum stock. So, I'm a I'm not one that predicts it by the day, but it feels like as long as it continues to have this momentum and we don't have some sort of macro blow up when we're pushing up against 7500 uh on the S& P, which is that's also an all-time high. As long as we don't have some sort of blow up where we don't take a pause, I actually think it keeps going from here uh to all-time highs quicker than um you know, 6 months for sure. But again, if we have some sort of macro headwind, uh that could definitely dampen it. But auto sales are actually moving in a very good direction. And there was this signal from Panasonic that they're increasing capacity and it they named Tesla. And that is a big deal because typically what suppliers do is when they get an increase in demand, remember Tesla makes their own batteries. The 4680 is going into a lot of their new products and Tesla's expanding capacity for the 4680 too. But when suppliers get that demand signal, their first inclination is to try to make it with existing capacity, existing labor, not to trust it. When was the last time they got a a bigger demand signal or an increase or a net increase from Tesla? It's probably been a while because we've been stagnant or slightly down the last couple of years in terms of total units. So, this is a big deal if they're actually going to increase capacity. they're going to add new capbacks or actually install new shifts of people and not just run overtime. Typically what they do is they run overtime and they run past their typical uh points of utilization and maintenance windows and they just try to get as much out as possible. It sounds like they're beyond that and that actually could be a big deal. I actually think I actually think there's uh there's a word of mouth happening with FSD and I actually believe in the US it is starting to drive sales. I think the price of oil is starting to drive sales as well. Um so anyway, those are a couple things I would keep an eye out for. β€” Okay, great. James, you want to go through some of your research that you did? Oh, can't hear you. β€” There's a scammer in the chat, by the way. He's pretending to be the CFO of Tesla. He's a scammer. So, if somebody could block him, that would be great. U one point you mentioned, Jeff, which is very powerful, is the oil price. I mean, California, $7 a gallon. Everybody's scratching their heads. Okay, these ice cars are going through. And that and in Europe, it's even worse. People used to buy diesel cars in Europe to save money if we get good mileage. That's just the price of diesel is through the roof right now. Anyway, back to side. I do want to talk about one thing. We did have that little tipping point which thought was very important. This is Q1 profit uh that Tesla made. They made $63 million per day. What's also interesting is 62. 8% you can't make this stuff up. basically nearly 63% of the 63 million was from cars selling cars energy 17. 5% of the bottom line attribution the profit FSE subscription 6. 9% which coincidentally it's the same amount as the rag credits and then internet and services charging robo taxis is a spit in the bucket right now but it's growing very fast but I think the most important takeaway and this goes back to the point we mentioned at the beginning the analysts are waking up to the fact that this is not a car company and they are in the very early innings of some of these lines of business and they're going to explode and again it's very important to look at bottom line attribution because things like FSD is pure profit CERN what do you think β€” well this is very encouraging to see isn't it uh this is kind of like a nice little Pac-Man chart here with the colorful portions that will uh over time take a larger and larger piece of that blue portion in autos what's also beautiful about this James is that FSD subscriptions are feeding the auto business. β€” Yeah. β€” Which is feeding the charging business, β€” which is feeding, you know, the other parts of the business. So, it's that's nice. Right now, we've got that tailwind. β€” Um, and then of course the smallest piece here, robo taxis, and what we're all waiting for is for that to become a larger and larger piece. β€” Um, and that's been the difficult part now for Tesla shareholders is waiting for that. β€” Exactly. But I mean when I saw this in Q1 and it's so early and I try and forecast what this pie chart will look like in Q1 2027, β€” it will be dramatically different and we're going to see new things on there that people never thought would happen. Tesla Semi sales are off the hook. So and the next chart I do want to β€” Yeah. Before you go on there though, this is a fantastic chart, James. I really appreciate this. 62%. So first of all, profit is the most important uh you know metric to be following β€” per day 63%. Which is great. But this uh FSE subs at 7%. That is a lot higher than I thought. And then β€” even robo taxis up. β€” Maybe CERN you can talk about this. Uh maybe they recognized a bunch of revenue and profit for FSD all at the same time. Is that possible? Well, there was a good chunk of one-time sales that would have contributed to this. β€” Um, also, yes, there's deferred FSD revenue that uh I don't recall how much of that was recognized this quarter, but that certainly is a part of it. But the real story, I think, is the expanding number of FSD subscriptions. β€” Yeah. β€” And that's the recurring high margin revenue stream revenue and profit stream going forward. The other thing too, I think we're all used to thinking about Tesla in terms of revenue. And what I like about this chart that you put together, it's you're looking at profit. β€” Yep. β€” And at the end of the day, that's what really matters. So that's why red credits and FSD subscriptions have a fairly large slice here is because from a profitability standpoint, they're very high. And of course, robo taxi eventually as well. Hugely profitable business there. β€” Yep. Meabax. Does this take you by surprise, Jeff? β€” Yeah. You actually uh yes and no. I this is what I've been predicting, but the timing is is been off. I mean, obviously, we'd want to see this earlier. FSD licensing as well, but it looks like Tesla wants to cook FSD more uh before they really I mean they're in with regulators now, but just thinking about going wide with even you know awareness campaigns uh licensing I still think they want to cook it a bit more. So, but yeah, I this is a different company than what it was even a year ago in terms of the sources of revenue. β€” Yep. And I love what uh Cernin said as well regarding the flywheel that FSD is driving car sales which is driving services and everything else. All right. The other thing I do want to pick your brains on and this is kind of consider this chart a reflection of the pain that our audience is having. uh they are all saying, "Oh, you talk about all this great stuff, but when is it really going to hit? " So, I took a stab at what I believe are, and I threw energy storage in there because that's already hit. So, the dollar sign is to the left, that's already very real, but all the new things that are coming to the four and they will be significant both revenue and profit contributors in very short order. So, I try to put a dollar sign as to when those things become significant. So Tesla Semi sales are off the hook. I count probably close to a thousand orders already. These things are $300,000 a pop if I'm not mistaken. And many states offer up to $150,000 in tax credits as well. FSD ramping, I think that will be very significant early 2027. Robo taxis significant towards the end of 2028. I could be completely off there. I could be a year late, but again, let's just we can move these on the sliders as we go. Humanoid robots will not become significant till later 2028. Again, sandbagged, I hope I'm wrong. Please keep me honest here, you guys. Uh software and services like digital optimus way out to 2029, late 2029. Incar inference again maybe 2030. I did sandbag these on purpose because I want you all to challenge them. Uh and these are again sizable revenue drivers and often very high profit. β€” James, when you talk about sizable revenue drivers, what what's your sort of definition of that? How are you approaching β€” 3 to 5% of revenue? β€” Okay. β€” Yeah. So 3 to five billion ballpark. β€” It's clearly it's hard to know the exact timing of many of these things. Um we're seeing encouraging developments obviously with semi and the question is how quickly does that ramp and become profitable? We saw when they rolled out the Cybert truck how that was actually hurt profits for a period of time. β€” Yep. β€” Uh and you quickly turned the corner on that hopefully with semi. Uh FSD absolutely I think that actually may be the surprise of this year for Tesla and how it drives uh car sales. Uh robo taxis who knows they are clearly working up to a a bigger ramp. The question is when. So your numbers here I think are you know I think they're sandbagged. Uh I would be shocked if they're going to wait that long to ramp up robo taxi particularly given the cybercap production because you've got to put those vehicles somewhere and there's no point in ramping up cybercap production if you're not going to put them in the fleet. You can only use so many as validation vehicles and maybe there's a few hundred that can be used for that. But otherwise you need to have them out there working for you. So I would probably move the slider on that one more to the left. β€” Okay. β€” And then the other one I think for me is the software and services that digital optimist one. Elon talked about having something ready by the end of this year. That is something that doesn't have manufacturing problems in terms of it being able to scale. β€” Y β€” you could roll that out and have that be a massive impact in 2027. β€” And that dovtales into incar inference as well because he did say you could have your car do your tax return, didn't he? Where's that effect? β€” Yeah, ultimately. β€” Yeah. β€” Um to me there's maybe more infrastructure associated with that part, β€” but just digital Optimus itself, again, we don't know a whole lot about that, but we're seeing certainly the rise of AI agents from a number of companies, and Elon has signaled his intention to be a player in that market. β€” I thought Digital Optimus was an XAI product, not a Tesla product. Well, I think it's both. It's joint. It's Tesla FSD combined with Grock. β€” Yeah, he did mention it could be both. β€” Yeah, basically the Mac Mini. It would be your car computer. β€” Yep. β€” But yeah, I think there's β€” Well, that's that's AI in car inference. That's what that is. But he also β€” incar inference is uh profit sharing people using their cars for inference as a distributed network. The digital optimist is different. β€” Yeah, true. β€” And I also he did say digital optimist is part of Tesla because Optimus is part of Tesla. That's how he's positioning it. Jeff, β€” what's nice about a lot of these is a lot of the op opex or the R& D has been is done like on semi. It's been number of years and now it's done. So you talk about that pure profit um play not going to be pure profit with the semi. Obviously, there's cogs to manufacture them, but this is going to be a very good uh operating margin business for Tesla. Robo taxis to get they get super tactical. I think what's happening is what I've been saying, which is Tesla has a mathematical model and then they max out the number of units based on how they believe how they see that the the performance of the fleet performing to their mathematical model. And I think with the current release, whatever it's called, because they're probably not running what they're probably running ahead of us in our personal vehicles, what they're running in robo taxis, but whatever's happened, they've appear they've reached their peak and now they've obviously got to get the next release out there. So, I actually think these big movements that we see in robo taxi, the one we saw a couple of weeks ago, coincides with them getting a new release uh that is proven to perform better. So, I think the fleet is waiting for that next release and then I think we'll see that 39 number start moving up again. And I like I said, I don't think Tesla exactly knows when that inflection point is, but they're just they're just converging towards it. Uh so it could be soon, it could be later in the year. Um Elon's been very clear that he wants to resolve these convenience issues as well. So I think the robo taxi timing I think it's generous. Uh, and I mean I think it's conservative what you have in there and hopefully they're able to improve upon it and I also continue to believe that the Tesla fleet size will be much larger than anyone's by the end of the year. It just may not be at this mass volume level that Elon's envision which I think is many hundreds of thousands uh per country and millions you know in the world. I I think that is when we get to this later architecture and better performance. But so β€” yeah, and it's not lost to me that they're expanding in 39 cities, employing in 39 cities, and they've got 39 supervised cars. β€” It's like weird numbers. β€” Yeah. I wonder if you should do that β€” exercise, that same chart, James, but with profit instead of revenue because profit will actually be much more, you know, material to the business and it'll happen sooner. β€” Yeah. β€” It's much harder to estimate profit, but we do have margin percentages that we can apply to that. So, yeah, a month from now, you'll have that ready. β€” Yeah, I'm a little shocked that your analysis shows that FSD, sorry, robo taxi is already. 9% 8%. That's close to 1% already of profit. β€” Yeah. And I crazy for such tiny numbers. β€” It's weaved out of the financials and I don't know how much they charge capex or research and development to the actual revenue offset. That's the weird thing. So there might be some funky bookkeeping behind the scenes like maybe the cost of vehicle is R& D or some type of other write off. same with the co-driver because it would be very difficult to be profitable with somebody sitting as a supervisor in the passenger seat, things like that. But anyway, these numbers will get far more refined as we move forward. But remember, they've also had over 500 robo taxis running around California now for what, nine months now nearly or at least six months, three months. Remember on the previous to last earnings call, Elon said there's over 500 in the Bay Area. So, and I see them. I see them out all over the place, even in places where they shouldn't be outside the mapped area. So, it's very bizarre. β€” All right. Thank you for doing all that research, James. Always very valuable. Let's get to the some of the news here. We talked Tesla stock. We're gonna talk about um Elon's and the other CEO's visit to China Cyber Cap Car Wash and then the you just covered the new revenue streams. So, uh Elon was in Air Force One. Apparently, it was just him and Jensen Hong. They picked up Jensen on in Alaska on the way. So, first of all, that was interesting that it was only the two of them of that list of CEOs that was on Air Force One. Um, beautiful shot. I hope that they had time together to negotiate. They're friends. They've already struck many deals together. They're friendnemies. There's uh projects that Nvidia is doing that is competitive, but at the end of the day, I think their friendship really is strong. Um Elon of course front and center, one of the people that was being introduced and the some people say that he's the most loved CEO or certainly the most famous one of from the Chinese people. Uh, more photos here. Here's Elon looking around taking videos. Here's the list of the CEOs. And uh, first of all, they're all CEOs exact except for Meta. Um, and it's a good list, right? I mean, you got I mean, it's like the most powerful business leaders joining President Trump on the trip. Uh, in my kind of understanding of how deal all works, they're not there to negotiate and hope that a deal happens. more likely that they'd already pre-negotiated and this is ceremonial and they're about to announce something. There's certainly pieces that they'll have to still finalize and that's why the CEOs go uh and certainly some deals can fall apart. I'm not saying that but I'm just saying that for the most part I'm expecting big news to come out and big uh you know announcements. Elon interestingly a lot of people are thinking that this is when they're going to announce that FSD is fully approved in China. And one of the things we're seeing is all the job postings in China, a lot of them have the word urgent added to it the last day. Why would they add the word urgent to it? Uh if they don't uh believe that FSE is about to be approved uh you know anytime soon. Uh what do you guys expect out of this uh visit? β€” The only logical conclusion is Herbert they like to hire people and not have them do anything. No. Clearly they have an expectation that FSD approval is coming in China. Um that makes sense. That by the way on that CEO list what I find interesting is that CEOs of Visa and Mastercard were on the trip. Those are two kind of unlikely uh CEOs. China has their own financial system. What are they doing with Visa and Mastercard? Anyway, that's a side story. Um but it's encouraging this high level visit. It's kind of a orchestrated choreographed thing. I hope that there's some real good discussions going on behind the scenes besides some of the stuff that they've already pre- agreed to. Um, and the other thing I kind of wonder out loud and I want to get everybody's reaction on this is what do you think the odds are of Nvidia becoming a partner in the terab venture? β€” Hi. Nvidia partners with everybody though. That's the problem. They're just going to they sleep around with every single anything that moves their partner with them. Um well the only on that one Nvidia is not a fab. So in Intel has process capability and capacity. Uh Nvidia doesn't. So unless Elon thinks he's going to be running into an issue filling that thing up with demand, then I could see it. or he thinks he's going to run into an issue uh funding it, then I could see him taking on partners like Nvidia. And if you're Nvidia, you want you want that uh you know, outlet besides TSMC and you want to provide you know, you want that competition. But um back to the uh the China visit, I I think a lot of things get built up. First off, this visit got moved uh from a prior period of time. I don't think it's tied to Tesla milestones. I'm sure if there was something to have a conversation with. I know Elon has a he's obviously he's met G and he has a direct relationship with the vice premiere number two. I think and you are correct. Elon is beloved as a CEO. I think Tim is uh Cook is well liked, but I think Elon is maybe even on a different level there. So, they highly respect Tesla. Here's the reason why they're going to pull FSD through and they're going to improve it. China and I say this in the not I'm not trying to be in a what say anything bad about China but one of the things that they do is they recognize who's a leader or a captain of industry and what they try to do is they try to bring them in and then they try to copy it and when I say copy I mean mimic I mean are there people that leave the Tesla team the team that set up the uh where all the data is stored and is there people that are doing fleet management? Are there people that understand? I but I think Tesla has properly cordoned this off. I think the FSD software is a binary that nobody's getting into or nobody's getting access to. I think the hardware design is nowhere near China for the computers. But just how do you do this? this vision only? Cuz that looks like it's the only economical way to get to very wide global expansion. How do you do it? And I think just having Tesla there and in the lab but not fully approved and running is two different things. So I think they want to get Tesla up and go and get a ramp. I think the government's going to want to pull this through again as long as it's safe because like what Tesla did in 2019 with uh Shanghai, I think it's going to start a broader boom of autonomy in China. β€” Yeah. One thing I would like to say as well regarding these two, uh when I see I think it's Uber or Whimo or whatever leadership, they're throwing mud at each other now. They're fighting. The zombies are fighting, which I find hilarious. But when you look at Elon and Jensen, they have the best CEO relationship in tech. It's masterclass. They have mutual respect. They have a shared vision for AI. They collaborate. They work with each other. And I think that is the poster child of how big CEOs should operate. So that's just all I want to say on those two fellas. Cooperation. Love it. β€” Okay. And you guys uh think that the only announcement will be FSD. China's approved. Could there be bigger deals? Because this is why President Trump is going there. He wants to make a splash. He wants big deals both ways. β€” No. You know, β€” no. I don't No. Wait. So, let's be clear. President Trump did not go to China to get FSD approved. β€” No. β€” For Tesla. β€” Nor is he involved in any of the conversations. β€” Not what I said. mean. President Trump wants to bring all the CEOs there because he wants to strike big deals with China for multiple industries both ways. Uh is Tesla's going to just do FSE only or do you think that there might be other announcements? β€” Um I don't think so. I don't think Tesla needs Tesla is a has a China entity and they they have access to China and China loves Tesla. The supply base loves Tesla. The they're well they're wellliked in China including the leadership in the government. So I actually don't think Elon needs the help. the trip I think they're close on FSD. So, if the FSD approval comes um and maybe just Elon having a conversation with the vice premere, maybe it will help move it along. Who knows what what happened? But, uh I'm not expecting actually a whole lot unless this unless this trip signals a new level of working together. I know there were rumors on the H200 or on Yeah. on the H200 with Nvidia, but if there's going to be a new level of access allowed cuz right now we've kind of put some walls up around AI, um then that could be interesting for Tesla and Optimus and Tesla and Roboaxi. But I think Tesla's path or robo taxi in China is through their FSD approval. Um so we'll see. and then look for an announcement of Tesla and robo taxi and starting that up in China. I mean, I think that would be the next thing to look for after FSD. There was a job description for a robo taxi person uh role in China. That was the first time we saw the word robo taxi, not just FSD. β€” Yeah. Good call. β€” So, if we're thinking about robo taxi in China, then you also need to think about cyber cab production in China. Yeah, β€” because they're not going to import them from the United States. They will make them there if that happens. So that would be part and parcel of it. Would it that be announced at this time? No, probably not. But it's on my bingo card for a future announcement. β€” I mean, they he announced it at Gig of Berlin. He said, "We're going to be building cybercaps here. We're going to be hiring more people. We're going to build 4680s. " All of that is happening. they could make that announcement because they would need to build a new factory for that. β€” So if they were going to build the cyber cab, he would probably come out and say, "We plan to build cybercab and optimist here. " He could say that like he did with a gig at Berlin before they actually do it. β€” And by the way, building cyber cabab in China is great news for then cyber cab and robo taxi in places like South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and other markets. β€” Yep. Japan. β€” Okay. All right. Well, we were hoping that a big news would be announced by now, but uh they're still having dinner. They're sleeping. β€” I think they're left. I think they've gone already, haven't they? They're not still in China. β€” Yeah, probably not. We'll see. β€” All right. Um and then cyber caps. So, we had 70 cyber cabs seen in Giga, Texas. Uh here's the photos. Thank you again to Joe Tugmar. He does a fantastic job with that. You know, the thing about the cyber cabs in Texas or in Giga Texas uh outbound lots is you don't know if this was two days worth of output or it was just one day. So, I don't know if we can read too much in it, but this is the first time we saw 70. Usually, it's been 30. We've seen 40. Uh they're now there. So, anything else we can read from that? I think they're ramping very fast. And oh, we have our ramp expert here, Jeff, because I in the early days it was maybe seven a day and then 12, then 20, then we saw one day with about 30. Now we're seeing 70. Does that look like the typical ramp to you? β€” Yeah, I mean, like Herbert said, we don't know that the relative displacement of these, β€” but it looks like it it looks like they're off and running. Um, one of the questions I asked and it wasn't directly answered for the earnings call is, do you plan to take Cyber Cab to its peak production as soon as possible? And it sounds like they're going to calibrate that production rate relative to their readiness for robo taxi deployment, but I think they're going to build a lot of cyber cabs in the meantime. So, it looks like things are going well. We don't know if there's a big issue or not that's gating production. Um, but if the Model Y was ready for mass unsupervised deployment and I think the Cyber Cab would be close behind. So look for that. Look for that clue. But I think what they're doing is they're building these things and they're staging them in those 338 cities, whatever the number is now. And I think they're going to continue building and staging, building and testing in those cities uh as well. And that's the plan just to be ready cuz like I said with these models they don't know they could be ready in a week or two if they have they if they stumble upon a kind of a big improvement uh in the model. So we'll see. And again we don't understand what the actual limiters are to a th00and to 5,000. We just know that there's this architecture change in the future, but we don't know what numbers are tied to that yet. β€” Herbert, if you pull up Joe Techmire's latest post from about 3 minutes ago, he's sharing uh images of about 70 cyber cabs in the Albm lot today at Giga Texas. β€” That's what I just showed. β€” Oh, just from three minutes ago. Is that the most recent one? Now, I'm not sure if some of these cyber cabs are the same ones of yesterday or if they are new. β€” Yeah, I think most are the same as I observed on Wednesday. β€” Okay. So, he did grab the most recent one. Okay. β€” No, I didn't grab the most recent one, but he just his new post said that these are most of the same ones that I saw yesterday. That actually then proves that they sit there for multiple days. So, just because you saw 70 doesn't mean that they made 70 one day. They might have made 34, 30. β€” Yeah. He says, "I think most are. " I mean, β€” yeah, we don't know for sure, but yeah, they may sit there for a day or two before they're moved out. β€” Also, there's other photos in the outbound lot. There is a lot of Model Y's uh in that outbound lot as well. So, production has ramped up on we've seen more Cyber Trucks, we've seen Cyber Cabs, and we've seen a lot of Model Y's. So, it's good to see. β€” Yeah. So my uh theory and I've been saying this and I still stick to it at this point is that the reason that they're uh that they are seeing them everywhere 33 cities and all that it's not that they're ready to roll out cyber cabab as a robo taxi in those cities. They need to make I don't know what the number is hundreds thousand of them put them out there to test drive them first of all it's a brand new vehicle they need to test that as a vehicle itself and then secondly test FSD you know we had the Model Y model 3 we've had um 8 billion miles of US customers driving it with supervised FSE to test FSE on that form factor they need maybe a thou 10 billion now β€” uh 10 billion right oh wow we are I can't I'm forgetting So that so now that you know that's what I'm thinking that they need these 8,000 cars driving around to really dial in FSE to really make sure that that's correct. β€” That's uh that's my theory. So okay, uh cyber cabs. And then this one is a huge surprise. Uh Tesla's reportedly submitted plans for a car wash dedicated for robo taxis in Las Vegas. A permit was filed with Clark County just now. describes Tesla Center Cybercap phase 2 car wash. Uh according to the project description, the work involves interior and exterior improvements to an existing facility, including the construction of a car wash enclosure, relocation of tire service equipment, and the installation of power raceways. This seems to suggest that Tesla's building a full service maintenance hub specifically designed to handle the unique needs of an autonomous fleet. This facility is massive and thank you to not a Tesla app. He says it's 36,000 square feet. I'm trying to figure out how big that is. The I think I just asked AI can hold 60 cars at once. β€” It can't be right. β€” So, β€” yeah. β€” Okay. Does anybody have a good idea how big 36,000 ft is? 3,600 square meters and should be able to hold 60 cars. β€” Yeah, I've built I just go off a relative factory sizes I've built. It's a decent size. Um it's not enormous. It's not small. Um but these are all the things the ancillary things that have to be done to run β€” a fleet like this. clean them inside, outside, tires, all the, you know, windshield wiper, like there's all this, and I'm sure Tesla has a way to understand tread life through um force responses from each wheel. So, I'm assuming that they can actually determine tread life autonomously from the car. Same with uh the wiper blade. in its life based uh based on the friction and the speed of movement of the wiper blade across the camera set. So there's a lot of thing this is really built for autonomy and every everyone else that's doing this is really still in manual mode and it's just not going to scale well. I think this is really well thought of and advanced. I know we all want it here today, but there's no reason to have a car wash when you don't have the software yet that you want to run the vehicles um autonomously at scale, but I think all this stuff has been thought of pretty well in advance. And I think it's going to be benchmarked when it's out there and it's scaled. Again, I think this is a good thing to see. They're obviously planning on building a pretty significant fleet in Las Vegas and every other city that they enter. I do think there's a missed opportunity here. They could put the car washes in the boring company tunnels, have it all underground, make it part of the trip, but perhaps that'll come in the future. β€” That's the outside. This is like inside as well. It's going to be all automated. β€” Yes. Yeah. The other thing we need to see is this wireless charger β€” uh usage ramp up. You don't see it at all. Like when they get parked in these outbound lots, they should be getting parked over wireless chargers and charging the battery. And I don't know why we can't see that at the factory right now. Uh so if you said like, "Hey, are you concerned about anything? " I'm concerned about that for expansion. We should be seeing that now and we're not. Um so I'm not worried about the numbers yet getting, you know, what are we have close to 40. I still think we're waiting for that next release. I'm I am worried about um wireless charging. I don't know how big they can scale this with people having to manually charge these. β€” Yeah. Well, I think one thing we don't know, uh imagine the cadence of cleaning that probably will coincide with the cadence of charging. So, they can do both at the same time. Like I know, but it used to be I remember being in New York cabs in the 90s and they were the dirtiest, most disgusting things and they were running 24/7, especially during snow and stuff, but I'd imagine Tesla will keep these things super clean. But maybe they just need to be cleaned once every 8 or 12 hours and the battery will last long enough to run around a city for 300 miles, 400 miles, 500 miles, who knows? Um, so maybe the induction charging might not be required. They do have all the bells and whistles ready to go for that, but just not the infrastructure. And that's another part of the opex. And when you think about all of these challenges, the way we're looking at it, how do other providers survive, you know, like Whimo, β€” etc. So, it's β€” So, yeah, this permit was found as filed in Las Vegas, but it's curious that it's Las Vegas. Uh, maybe there is a permit. We just haven't discovered it yet in Austin. But I'm maybe as the assumption is that maybe you guys think it's actually in Giga, Texas. That's where they're going to use it and they're going to build it first there anyways. And then once they understand how that works, then they'll recopy it in Las Vegas. Um I noticed by the way of the 39 cities there was a predominance of very red states. You know, the Floridaas, the Neadas, I and of the I think Sparks Nevada is in the 39 as well as Vegas. So a lot in Texas, of course, they're going to dominate Texas. Is this because they have more favorable regulations, less liability for these states? β€” Jeff, CERN, Herbert, what do you think? β€” Like for people hoping for a Washington state roll out, will that happen? Like when I look at the 39 cities, they're all Bellev Washington, which is the city that's near MEI, is one of the on the list. but nothing like the concentration of other sunb belt cities. So CERN, you seem to have a thought on this. β€” Well, it certainly seems to be easier in some of the places you mentioned and there's very good autonomous legislation already on the books in those states. Um I think we can look to kind of Whimo as the, you know, they're pushing the envelope and so Tesla can follow in their footsteps for the most part if they want to. Um although there's obviously some different issues they face maybe in different states like California. Um they will get there and of course federal legislation will help whenever that comes. But in the meantime there's plenty of expansion capacity in the cities that you just mentioned states you mentioned Florida, Texas, Arizona, Nevada. You could scale up your fleets massively in those states. β€” Yeah. done with car washes. β€” Let's go. β€” So, uh, one thing I talked to Larry Goldberg about last week is he said that when Tesla or when SpaceX goes IPO, just SpaceX separate company goes IPO, he believes Tesla stock will also pop 10 15%. Even though two separate companies, just the halo effect. And uh the news we hear now is SpaceX IPO prospectus could hit as soon as next week. This is it. Um yeah, the road show slated for June 8th per CNBC. This would be the largest IPO, but uh we're going to see the prospectus next week. So if this happens, what do you guys think, James? Is that New York? β€” Well, you know, it's coming close because if you look at Echoar stock, it's just going up. You know, another new alltime high today, 138 bucks. So, yeah, it's coming fast and uh I think mid June is was the time expected and they're not sitting on their hands. So, yeah. Do you think it'll affect Tesla stock or β€” Oh, this is the confusion and I you know I know that the Tesla tubers are all fighting amongst each other right now about this. I don't think there's going to be a Tesla SpaceX merger and I don't think people are going to sell their Tesla stock to rotate into SpaceX. SpaceX is a 2029 2030 plus story. The biggest TAM tackled right now is by Tesla going after humanoids and self-driving cars, cyber cabs. That's the story for now. Plus, when you look at the relative valuations, why would you sell a cheaper asset with a larger TAM for one that's already fairly valued? Doesn't make sense to me. So, but I seem to be the only one standing on this pedestal from the very beginning. I do have some SpaceX exposure, but nothing like my Tesla exposure. Um I think when I look at logic and sometimes there is no logic in markets you would have to think this synergy if SpaceX I think it'll come out of the gate of 2. 2 trillion and that will have a halo effect which will also inflate the price of Tesla because anybody who can add two and two together knows that the money they raise from the IPO will be used for Terraab which of course Tesla with Optimus and Zygav is a huge beneficiary down the line too. So, it it's the whole debate right now is nonsense. And maybe I'm just stupid missing something, but I don't see any rotation from Tesla to SpaceX at all post IPO. If anything, it'll inflate the Tesla stock price. Does anybody here agree with me? β€” I do. β€” Oh, there you go. High five. β€” Yeah, I don't I don't see that. I mean, look, I think we're answering. You know, there's 10 million Tesla shareholders, I think, by some estimates. So, it's hard to provide an answer. You're kind of just looking and thinking in majority and masses. And I don't think there's going to be some mass move for the reasons you prescribed, as well as taxes, too. I mean, you have to take a tax hit in order to do that. So, I mean, most cases. So yeah, I don't see that happening. And mass sure could it happen in an isolated fashion? Sure, anything could happen. We're again cross 10 million investors. Anything could happen. But I think there could be some positive in pin action related to SpaceX, its IPO and Tesla. There's a there is a lot of concern in markets as there's just a huge need for liquidity with these large IPOs coming and where is it going to come from and I think it's really hard to understand. I'd love to hear CERN's um thoughts on this. I think it's just really hard to understand the answer to these questions because there's so much money in it could be money markets, it could be in all different kinds of instruments. And to say that there's not enough liquidity, I don't know how you say that. All I can say is it's going to take a lot of liquidity in the market when these things come in. β€” Yes. β€” Um but I like where it's going to come from. from here. It's going to come off the sidelines. It's going to come from other stocks. I think that's hard to say. β€” Yes. And to double tap into that as well, Jeff, there's 8 trillion in money market accounts sitting there. There's also things like the SAS apocalypse happening and there will be a big sucking sound where it's going to be out of things that do not have a bright future into things like SpaceX and Tesla and the world is slowly waking up to it. So β€” over to you sir. β€” Good point. β€” Yeah it's interesting. I will both agree and disagree with you James just for the sport of it. β€” Yes. β€” Um just in terms β€” because you can think out of both sides of your brain. Correct. β€” That's right. And I like to do that. I like I enjoy getting attacked online so I do this all the time. Wait's brain is square. He said there's m two sides or there it's circular β€” left and right. β€” It looks pretty circle to me. β€” It's probably square. Um β€” so just in terms of you know SpaceX sucking capital away from Tesla that may happen for some investors. I've talked to many investors who plan to sell some. Many investors are already positioned as James mentioned as another company that you can buy today and get SpaceX exposure. There are many investors I've talked to that already own SpaceX. Some of them actually are excited to trim that and sell down. So there's all kinds of different crosscurrens going and I don't know that we can sit here and say this one thing is going to dominate. What is interesting I think is there's going to be a lot of institutional buyers uh particularly uh funds that want to more closely track an index whether they're true index funds or not. There are many actively managed portfolios that try to hue as closely to an index as they can or preposition themselves for that. So in that case they may not be selling Tesla to buy SpaceX. They may be selling some of everything else β€” in their portfolio. β€” And also the people and the people that really matter as well CERN they've got lots of margin they can tap into. they can tap into their margin on their lowc cost basis equity in Tesla β€” to buy SpaceX. So that that's what the logic mind would do. But you know, Jeff mentioned a very good point. The tax drag on selling lowcost stock is massive. β€” Yeah. β€” So unless you're conversations with clients that have, you know, maybe a large position on Microsoft and they're happily going to trim that and buy some SpaceX. β€” Yes. β€” They they're not considering selling any of their Tesla stock. β€” Apple shareholders, too. β€” Apple shareholders and so on. So, there's going to be all kinds of things going on in terms of the the issue between people online about this merger. Um, I can argue all day long that Tesla has a bright future, and I've done plenty of videos with Herbert and others about how big the future is for Tesla. My thoughts have not changed. But I can also make an argument that SpaceX is a very special asset that may not be fully appreciated by everybody because the information about SpaceX is not as much out there as it is for Tesla. You don't have Herbert of SpaceX yet, right? And other people, the coverage of SpaceX is not nearly as great, although I think it will be in short order. And certainly when this perspective comes out, we're going to have a whole lot more information with which to educate ourselves on. And I do hold out some possibility that SpaceX is such a unique asset that it's a oneofone company. There is no other. Now Tesla's kind of a one-of-one company too, but SpaceX even more so. And so when investors are looking towards the future, they can see a big bright future for SpaceX. Now, it may be true that Tesla can monetize its assets quicker, but that doesn't mean that SpaceX stock is not going to do well just because the revenue doesn't come for a year or two later. And I'm hearing a lot of Tesla investors making statements about SpaceX. And I highly doubt that they have taken the time to understand SpaceX as well as they understand Tesla. And again, I'm not finding fault with them. I'm just saying that right now is not possible to do. We don't have the data on SpaceX that we do for Tesla. I can't build the same kind of model for SpaceX right now that I can for Tesla. And hopefully in short order, I will be able to. So, you know, again, holding two opposing thoughts in my mind, Tesla has this amazing bright future, but I don't necessarily agree with the narrative that Tesla for sure is going to outperform SpaceX going forward for the next year or two. I don't think we know enough to be able to say that. So I also agree with you James that I do not think that uh Tesla investors are going to sell Tesla stock to get into the SpaceX stock significantly. It will happen. It'll be short term. If you think about the logic people aren't more Tesla people saying that Tesla's just about to pop because Roboaxis is about to roll out and SpaceX is a longer story. If that's the case, why would they do this except for short term? They want to uh appreciate it. But guess what? A lot of those people had already got in earlier through SPVS, private funds, Echolar, as you said, CERN, those are the ones who really want to see the pop. And guess what? The pop has actually happened already, right? We're now thinking this thing's going to go to 1. 8 trillion, 1. 75 trillion, and then pop to 2. 2 trillion on that day. That's what the betting markets are saying. And then there's this logic inconsistency which is you know that people will uh will want to stay in SpaceX again back to this concept of it's robo taxi that's about to go. So I don't see it happening. I agree with uh Larry that if anything if SpaceX goes IPO Tesla stock will pop even if they do not announce or that if if the announcement doesn't if it's not if you don't believe that there's a merger going to happen they would still have a carry-on impact to Tesla going up and if you do believe that a merger is imminent or that they will announce it sometime in 3 6 months later and then that an actual a merger will happen next year. If you believe that that's going to happen, then if you own Tesla stock, why bother selling it? Just hold on to it. It will grow up and gain or lose in lock step with each other. Anyways, so yeah, we can debate whether or not we think that there's going to be merge or not. Um, and whether or not it's a all that debate, but that's a separate topic we can save later. What we do know is that this is going to be the biggest IPO of all time. It's going to be massively hyped. It's going to be overhyped and also underhyped in many ways. It's going to make it very confusing for a lot of people. Uh the stock action could be crazy because we've never seen a situation like this where index funds can buy in so soon after the IPO. Um and the lockups will be uh you know shorter than historically. So this is a big experiment and it's going to be fascinating to watch. β€” Yeah. Ron Baron was on TV recently and he was interviewed and it was shocking what he said. He said that after the SpaceX IPOs somewhere in mid June, 5 days later they will be in in uh accepted into an index fund. 5 days later after that another index fund and fund. three index funds within 15 days. This is unheard of. What does that mean? That means that after the IPO, maybe it pops a day. Usually, most other companies, they fall, nothing's holding them up. Here, you got index funds which are forced to buy, forced to buy, and then they have changed the lockup period for the people who already own SpaceX to also not have to wait 6 months. So, they will be able to sell, but they do it gradually as well. So that's what they've done is they've basically allowed you to sell. You don't have to wait for six months, but they only allow certain amounts of people can sell at certain amount of dates. So this is perfectly timed. If this is true, it'll should have support for at least the first month and then maybe it'll fall after that, right? β€” Yeah. This is an IPO launch in many ways. Um the stock may launch as well, not just the listing, but the stock price. Um, remember what happened when Tesla was announced? It was added to the S& P. β€” Yeah. β€” One of the best trading days of all time for Tesla. So, it's going to be really interesting to see how this is handled. And of course, the float with SpaceX is pretty small public float. So, that's going to potentially exacerbate this problem even more. You know, unless Elon's going to be selling some of his shares, which I doubt, it's going to be hard to source enough shares for the index funds to buy. All right. Well, that is what's happening next week. Um, so Piper Sandler, Alex Potter, um, released a note, a very detailed, uh, report. We, uh, are going to have him on join Cyberbulls sometime in the next 3 weeks and then Alexander will be there. Uh, she helped arrange that, uh, show. So, he came out and he said that he believes that at the current stock price, Tesla's stock price at $400 a share, of course, it's not there anymore, but when he did that report on Monday, he said at $400 a share, Tesla's getting uh shareholders are getting Optimus for free, meaning they're not pricing in Optimus at all. Um, so his short-term, he's very bullish. He his price target is $500 for Tesla stock. But then and if you look out his report which we'll cover in detail but he believes there FSE licensing sometime he believes that automakers will buy Tesla cars Tesla hardware uh he believes robo taxi will take off but his dates are pushed off uh 2030 2040 those kind of dates but still they're in his report. Uh what's your thoughts on that James? Did you see that report and thinking about Yeah. What's your what was your reaction to it? β€” It's impressive. So, you know, we're seeing a flood of Wall Street analysts kind of waking up to the value propositions here. There'd be a lot more, but still some are still way off. Um, and I'm very glad he'll be on Cyber Bulls, too. β€” Yeah. J, what do you think? Uh, Jeeoff β€” of his of his call or β€” Yep. I think it's fine to not necessarily have Optimus in yet, but I think it's really hard to say what amount of the robo taxi business is really accounted for. We know something's in there. We just don't know if the full extent of it is. It's probably not at this point. I just think these analyst price targets to me never there's a couple of analysts that are kind of ahead of like they tend to be on the right side of this and they're slightly a little bit more bullish and there's ones that are just kind of way behind or chasing. Um, but I don't think it's irrational at this point because Tesla's really gone quiet on Optimus. Um, except for announcing their factory plans, which I think analysts should take very seriously coming from Tesla. I would take the Tesla's manufacturing plans more serious than any other bot manufacturer. But the question is, is everything else going to be ready? Is the supply chain is the inbound supply chain coming in? Is the AI going to be ready? And I think those are the bigger question marks. There are some interesting things from my perspective, Herbert, when I look at his numbers. Um, he's got FSD subscriptions uh ramping up, but really starting it to ramp in 2028, 2029. He's got, you know, 900 million of FFTD subscription revenue in 2027 to 1. 8 billion. So, a doubling in 2028. and then going to 4. 1 billion. So more than a double in that year. And my question would be, well, why is that so far out at this point? Um, and so that would be something interesting. And then it's got it more than doubling again in 2030 and then 2031. So he's he has high expectations for the growth of FSD subscriptions. Um, he's got mega pack, mega block growing steadily. No, no really big sort of year-over-year. and he's actually kind of got it stagnating actually for the next few years. Uh he's got revenue this year of 9. 7 billion and it's not getting above 12 billion until 2030. Um that's not consistent I think with what we've heard from the company. Now maybe he's expecting some serious pricing pressure in that market and that that's potentially the case. So you might get volume growth but you might be hurt on pricing. Um, and then the other thing I think I found interesting was, uh, the, uh, Tesla insurance numbers that he has, uh, he's got that at a 1. 2, uh, 1. 6 billion business this year. And then by 2035, it's like 26 billion. Massive growth for Tesla insurance. And I'd be curious as to what's behind that. And his 2045 number is like almost $300 billion in Tesla insurance. A massive, massive business. and he's got that growing kind of at the same time as robo taxi scaling and to me if you get to this point where robo taxi is eating into car ownership then what does that do for the Tesla insurance business so I'd love to hear his thesis on all that and then of course in this model that this the shot that I have of the revenue he doesn't have his optimus numbers which I'm curious to hear about β€” yeah I think it's a good point regarding the insurance maybe I doubt they're smart enough to do this but maybe they're focusing on people running their own cyber cab fleets, robo taxi fleets, and they'd be selling the insurance to those customers as well, like a buy package. β€” Yeah, he's also got growth in solar, which is good to see, but it's kind of going from nothing to about a 12 billion business and then flatlining. Maybe I think Elon probably has higher designs than that on that business, but you know, solar's kind of been the ugly stepchild for a long time now. Um, so anyway, it's going to be interesting to have a conversation with them and kind of pick through their thought process with all these business lines. And James, when I saw this and he's showing this these 17 discrete business lines, I think of your 18 and his would be 18, too, if he included Optimus on the chart. So, you're in sync with him there. β€” I think we're all in sync. It's fascinating. β€” Wonder what's next. I mean, he'll have to add Optimus, but they they've all decided not to add it for now, β€” I guess, until you see an actual product uh version three and then maybe some pilot studies. Apparently, by the way, uh Tesla has been hiring data collection operators for Optimus in I don't know how many I can't remember, but 12 Tesla offices and factories. So, that seems to indicate they're in line with what Elon was saying that they would have, I don't know, 5,000 optimists that would be being trained in Tesla offices and factories. That seems to be something that uh they're hiring for them. β€” Yeah. And on that too, there was an interesting takeaway. I read it somewhere. I can't find it right now, but they'll be tracking them carrying 30 pounds around all day long. β€” So, they're really stress testing these Optimus robots, too, with realw world situations. And I don't know if anybody here has tried to carry 30 pounds around all day. β€” That's beyond human levels. β€” You do it for a short moment of time, but try carry 30 pounds of shopping bags up the stairs or around for 10 hours. It's impossible. β€” Yeah. β€” Unless you're a smart β€” accelerating the stress testing of the actuators, maybe the knees and the hands, the elbows. β€” Exactly right. That's exactly right. Herbert, it's interesting too when you think about Wall Street analysts including Optimus or not. You know, Tesla now has taken down the SNX. They've stopped production on SNX line. They're starting now to replace that with the Optimus line to make a million. They'll have a capacity for a million robots. So, there's a concrete step the company's taking. You can also now visually see ground being broken and more than that foundation being laid for an Optimus battery factory at Giga Texas. At what point do the Wall Street analysts say, "Okay, this is becoming real. I need to start thinking about this. " And maybe they totally sandbag the numbers just like Alex has done here with I think some of these other businesses that we just talked about. So why is Optimus Zero that that's an interesting question and what will it take for Wall Street analysts to begin even including just a little bit of revenue, right? Even if they say, you know, Optimus says we have low expectations and Optimus is going to be, you know, a $5 billion business in 2035. Okay, fine. At least put it in your model. Put something in. β€” Yeah. β€” But they haven't even done that yet to not the decision to not model it versus just not model it for 26. That is a great question. I mean we asked uh uh Brett Winston no um Arch Invest directly Larry and I that question and then they also invested in the small startups. Uh so they obviously believe that robotics Arc Invest believes that robotics is a real business and they invested in them but they wouldn't put they haven't yet put Optimus and then the answer was that it's coming. it's coming that they're working on those research papers right now and then they will be putting it in. I think they're waiting for my guess is that they're waiting for an inflection point in the robo taxi business and then they'll put that in. But uh β€” it's interesting, isn't it? Because they were early to talk about robo taxi. β€” True. β€” And now kind of dragging their heels on Optimus. β€” Yeah. β€” And yet there's concrete signs that Tesla's moving forward with Optimus in a massive way. β€” Yep. And in fact, when we look at what Figure is doing, it's pretty impressive. Although I did watch that figure live demo video, it spent about three or a minute or so trying to turn this one package over and it just couldn't grab it because it still has a claw and it doesn't have the um actuators in the wrist, in the forearm. It has it in the hand which is a weakness which means it'll always be a domestic robot unlike Optimus carrying 30 pounds around. And that's what a lot of people miss. They think oh figure is going to kill Optimus. It's like it's a different use case. You know domestic use maybe turning packages over versus industrial use. So people forget that. β€” I just think that TAM is so big it's you can have a lot of different competitors. I actually think there's very few capable companies. I think every company has a gigantic question mark against it, including Figure. Uh, no, I mean, nothing against what they've done to date. I think it is impressive, but the to have to put there's a couple of gauntlets that robotics have to pass through to get the real scale. And it is a different animal to building a couple of these in a lab versus saying the industry has to go from a 100,000 to a million to a billion. Those are different things. And if you haven't been through that, um it it's it'll be excruciating. And I don't think they're all going to figure it out. Remember, it's that truth table of like two or three things have to be true. You have to have the AI brain. right product. as James was talking about and you have to have the manufacturing capability and the supply chain to build it and I think very few companies are going to check all three β€” and you need them all at scale. β€” Yes. So scale scale you know whoever has the most compute is going to be the leader in AI. That's what Elon is doing is trying to build the most compute as possible including space-based AI data centers. the one who can build the most bots, the most bots. We're talking, you know, there's a difference between one company that can make 10,000 bots and another company that makes a million. Uh Brett Adcock himself kind of pointed out a important nuance that you need to understand that you know when they trained the bot to try to do uh one of the tasks which is put away groceries into a refrigerator, he did that. He said there was a 60% success rate, 40% failure rate. But then later separately they trained that bot the bots to put away groceries into a cupboard. Then they redid them trying to put away groceries into the refrigerator that automatically that made it go up to 80% success rate. So by training them on doing something completely different well I mean let's not say it's completely different but a separate task makes them better at a particular task. And so then and then of course by the way when one is trained all bots that you make have that skill now right automatically. So the idea being that if you can make a million bots and all of them doing all sorts of different things. Somebody one of them is trying to practice doing needle work another one is playing tennis skills make your bots accelerate its capabilities better than the ones who only have 10,000 bots versus one who had million. Now I maybe my scale might be wrong. Maybe 10,000 is you know gets you 80% there. I don't know but certainly the more bots the more skilled and then of course price goes down cost goes down and then you got the smart bot the most skilled with the lowest price then that business model is better than others and you can make and you can sell so you're making money others can't and that's the race β€” it's the ver vertical integration the brains the hands and the manufacturing at scale nobody can touch Tesla in these regards nobody and it's I must say it's very impressive of that Brett Iok can make 50 a day. Can you imagine what Tesla would be able to make? That was the single stat that blew me away. If he in his little shop, you know, cluji with a lot of manual people putting stuff together can make 50 a day. Can you imagine what an automated line can do? Over to Jeff. Did you find that stunning? That figure can make 50 a day now or was it 50? β€” I don't I don't think that's even the number. Um, but there β€” Yeah. Well, yeah. So, maybe it's half that roughly. James, I um No, I don't find the pre-production I you could you can spoof uh pre-production a bit. You know, if you're wellunded, uh I'm not saying they are, by the way. I'm just saying that you I'm not The pre-production numbers are one thing, and we don't know the capability. Like we don't are these passing the figure production spec? If they were, they'd probably be in full-on production. So, the answer is probably no. Not yet. β€” Uh and then how much material had to be started to produce the one per day? I don't know the answer to that. How long is it taking uh at each station? What's the station efficiency? All these things factor into the cost equation. They're certainly making progress. I'm not one of these people. It's like it's only going to be Tesla, but I actually think a few that make a really I think a lot of companies are going to advertise that they're making a bot, but I think there's only going to be a few that make a useful bot that can actually get to scale and be AI driven uh for a period of time. I think in five to 10 years that will grow but for the next five years or so I think it's going to be a very small number uh that are successful and a big number that are going to try announce just like EV remember in EV everybody was announcing I'm doing an EV I'm going to do this I'm going to change my whole portfolio to EV I'm going to do all these things and now what do we see every day drip drip I'm cancelelling I'm not going I'm pulling out I'm not doing this I'm not doing that and you're going to see that too with bots. Oh, we're not seeing the growth and people aren't I mean, I hope we don't hear that, but you could, believe it or not. Uh, it depends what narrative the media is going to uh allow. So, anyway, I think it's I think we're in for a wild ride. I think Figure is making good progress. You shouldn't be looking at these videos. I mean, I think you should have a critical eye, but you should look at the relative progress. that they're willing to live stream this thing for 24 hours. They weren't willing to live stream it 6 months ago over 24 hours. So, it's a they are making some decent relative progress. Uh, and I think they'll be a player in this, but I I'm still thinking everybody's in this hundreds and thousands mode and we're going to have to be in this millions mode and not everybody makes that. β€” And by the way, just on the figure demo mode, I mean, I real kudos to Figure for doing this. The original plan was to live stream this for eight hours. They kept going. They did 24. They're still live streaming. We're now over 50 hours. Okay. And the robot now has sorted over 63,000 packages during that time. β€” Oh, wow. β€” There's a team of four different robots. Um and Brett Adcock this morning has said that they're going to run that until there's a point of failure. So the purpose of the test now is to see how long this can go. Again, kudos to Figure for doing this. I don't think as a Tesla shareholder you should be necessarily threatened by this or worried about, oh, is Figure ahead? Is Tesla behind? If Figure is ahead, this is great for Tesla. This is going to spur them to do what they have to do. I'm not really worried about that, but that's a lot of the comments I get when people see videos from Figure. Oh my gosh, they're ahead of Tesla. β€” Figure success, by the way, is good for Tesla. this whole industry they need it needs to be competitive situation and I love the fact that figure is doing this β€” I appreciate why maybe Tesla does not want to if they feel that they've got something in the robot that they don't want copied fine I get it but this is actually a really nice demo we've been asking for this kind of demo for a long time an autonomous robot doing work for a long period of time and here we have it and this is great and they're going to run this now until it fails β€” yeah there is no competition between human or robot companies against each other until my estimate let's say seven years 10 years away until they're both multiple companies are over 100 million bots each. β€” Yeah. β€” Will they then rub against each other going hey customer sell to me instead of you or you going to choose them instead of me? No. There's so many customers out there that you will not have a battle until you are each able to make you know I don't know what the number is 50 million 100 million bots each and then you'll see each other as competitive in a marketplace the market is so big it's like saying you know I'm going to go sailing and you're sailing and there's the ocean's massive we're not going to be you know taking each other's territory for a long time β€” correct β€” so you're saying that the Herbert bot and the Cernbot can coexist. β€” I that one I don't think so, buddy. No, just no. My bot will kill your bot. Kill. Kill. β€” Now we're saying your true nature, Herbert. β€” Wait, so the Herbert bot does evil. β€” It's my counter. It's my alter ego, right? It's like, you know, β€” it gets to do the things I don't do. β€” See, right now Herbert has agents doing work for him. Soon those agents are going to be in humanoid form. Yes. β€” And what will they do? you know that I have a bunch of agents doing work for me, but the funny thing is I feel like I'm the one doing work for them. Like I'm always like the human in the loop is the one that like, oh, damn it. And I have to like get in there and say something like just leave me alone, dude. β€” It's like being a parent. β€” Yeah. Too much work. Um, fantastic conversation, James. Always you do a lot of research and you put the data together and you share it with us. Uh, that was very illuminating. the profit uh spreadsheet, the chart that you put together, that was great. And then CERN, of course, puts in a lot of effort. And then J Jeff, the knowledge is unique out there. We're very fortunate. Appreciate it. Everybody follow us uh Cyberables. And then like we said, uh we're going to have Alex Potter join us in the three weeks. See you soon. Bye everybody. Great. Very two weeks. Yep. See you. --- *Π˜ΡΡ‚ΠΎΡ‡Π½ΠΈΠΊ: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/51462*