# IRAN Gets What It Wanted: ARAB Petromonarchies Turn on Each Other @visualpolitiken

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** VisualPolitik EN
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCrlQybuIdM
- **Дата:** 08.05.2026
- **Длительность:** 17:08
- **Просмотры:** 64,242

## Описание

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## Содержание

### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCrlQybuIdM) Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)

It's becoming clearer every day. Trump wants to turn the page and get out of the Persian Gulf as quickly as possible. The problem is that the Iranians aren't making it easy for him. And here we are with history repeating itself every few days. The White House leaks that a deal is imminent. The markets relax. The Iranians leak that they're thinking it over. And then they say, "Well, let's not rush into this just yet. " And it's back to square one. But hold on a second because that doesn't mean key developments aren't taking place. On 28th of April, the UAE announced it was leaving OPEC. And as recently as May 4th, barely a month after the ceasefire was agreed upon, TVs and cell phones once again broadcast alerts of new attacks. This happened just a couple of days ago. — UAE accuses Iran of attacks as large fire breaks out at oil refinery. Authorities say an Iranian drone sparked a fire at the Fujairah petroleum industry zone, wounding three people. — Keep an eye on this because Fujairah is the only Emirati alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. It's a port in the Gulf of Oman, on the Indian Ocean coast, with a large crude oil storage capacity and connected by a pipeline directly to the Abu Dhabi oil fields. In other words, it is the only route through which Emirati crude continues to reach international markets. So, attacking there sends a very clear message. Watch what you do because we have the ability to make things even worse. But it turns out this is just the tip of the iceberg. Because on top of that, in recent days, Iran has attacked oil tankers attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, has gone so far as to fire on US military ships, and has even created and unveiled a new body to manage passage through Hormuz, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. It's crazy. And yes, in Washington, even though they want to move on as soon as possible, they haven't just been sitting idly by. They've attacked several Iranian combat boats and even an oil tanker. — US fires on Iranian-flagged oil tanker as Trump gives Tehran fresh ultimatum. Like we said, we're in the midst of a very intense standoff. Now, apart from this standoff between Washington and Tehran, another tectonic shift is taking place in the region. Something that, for example, has a lot to do with this. Saudi Arabia denied US access to airspace, pressured Trump to pause project freedom. Yes, you heard correctly. Trump presented an initiative to try to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and thus put more pressure on Tehran in the negotiations. But this time, Riyadh said enough was enough with the games and banned the United States from using its airspace and military bases. So, the plan was effectively dead within 24 hours. Here on Visual Politics, we already told you how the UAE's exit from OPEC was a kick in the shins for the Saudis. A kick blessed and likely encouraged by the United States. So, now they've struck back. But beyond this back-and-forth, as I was saying, another tectonic shift is taking place behind the scenes. Take a look. Iran's response to the US and Israeli air strikes seemed chaotic, but it was much more carefully orchestrated than we might have thought. Just take a look at this chart. Look at the case of Qatar. At the start of the war, it was one of the primary targets, one of the hardest-hit countries, to the point that it has lost 15% of its total LNG production capacity for at least 3 years. Nevertheless, instead of pouring fuel on the fire, Qatar suddenly toned down its rhetoric. Of course, it didn't break ties with the United States, but it opened channels of dialogue with Tehran, softened its stance, and the attacks ceased. The Emirates, on the other hand, did exactly the opposite. They maintained the hardest line. They aligned themselves completely with the United States and Israel, and not surprisingly, became Tehran's prime target. And now that tensions have escalated again, remember what we just saw regarding Fujairah. The attacks on the United Arab Emirates have returned. Of course, and this is the important part, Iran's strategy isn't just about punishing the UAE's much harsher rhetoric. The truth is that its attacks and political moves have been aimed at a much more ambitious goal to blow up political stability in the Middle East and fuel division among the Gulf monarchies. And guess what, Visual Politik community? They are succeeding. What we're about to look at next is the other road map the Ayatollahs have to successfully navigate this situation. This is the least discussed action plan. Yet, they're executing it with pinpoint precision. Pay close attention to everything we're about to tell you because this is what's happening behind the scenes and what they're not telling you about. But first, if you're interested in the world of investing, if you want to learn how to manage your savings, protect yourself against inflation, and figure out how to make money beyond your day job, well, I've got some good news for you. At Visual Factory, we have created the Visual Factory Club, a newsletter where every week we send out free content focused on essential financial education, the ABC of what everyone should know to understand the stock market, financial markets in general, investment platforms, how to assess investment opportunities, and which markets may have more or less potential. Because of course, if you

### [5:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCrlQybuIdM&t=300s) Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)

want to invest your money, so you're not at the mercy of your country's economic instability, you would at least need to understand the basics of the financial world. In the Visual Factory Club, you'll learn all of this completely free of charge. Through the link below and this QR code, you can sign up for the club and start receiving the upcoming editions. What's more, when you sign up, you'll receive a dossier where I explain in a clear and simple way the most essential investment concepts, what multiples or the PE ratio are, what indices are, ETFs, derivatives, funds, EPS, you get the idea. After that, every week you'll receive additional materials and market analysis to help you stay informed about what's going on. And by the way, the sooner you sign up, the better. Since we send each episode of the series by email, and every edition is unique, if you're not subscribed, you might miss some of them and you won't be able to access them later. But, with that said, let's get back into the video. — Visual Politic Community, this war has brought us a lot of surprises. One has been the United States' stubbornness in getting involved in a large-scale conflict without having properly prepared for it. Another is that the outcome many expected has not materialized. The Arab monarchies of the Gulf have not united in a monolithic block against Iran as many anticipated. Instead, the exact opposite has happened. Any semblance of political cohesion and unity has been shattered, and this has been replaced by groups and factions with opposing stances and clearly divergent interests. Remember what we were saying a moment ago about the UAE's exit from OPEC? Well, that's just one clear manifestation of this process. But, obviously, the cracks don't stop there. Before the war in Iran broke out, the balance in the Gulf wasn't exactly optimal. It was going through what some analysts describe as a hot peace, a tense scenario, but one in which all the players had too much to lose to decide to break the deadlock. But, to better understand this situation, we have to go back a few years in time. — In 2019, a series of attacks on oil tankers off the coast of Fujairah put the United Arab Emirates on high alert. Yet, the worst happened a few months later when a drone attack struck Abqaiq, the world's largest crude oil processing plant, right in the heart of Saudi Arabia. — And what do you think the United States did with Trump as president? Well, absolutely nothing. In fact, Trump's own statements blew apart much of the consensus on protection that had been forming up to that point. — That was an attack on Saudi Arabia, and that wasn't an attack on us. — It was a warning to everyone. Beyond the smiles and congratulations in public, the sheikhs quickly grasped the situation and acted accordingly. Because you can get along with Trump, but if your supposedly great protector washes his hands of the matter when you're actually attacked, then it's up to you to take the bull by the horns. So, what did they do? Well, basically, they spoke directly with the other side. In this way, the United Arab Emirates struck a tacit agreement with Tehran. You don't attack me anymore, I won't escalate the conflict. Then, Saudi Arabia went a step further and in 2023, reestablished diplomatic relations with Iran using significant Chinese mediation. Qatar already had open channels with Tehran ever since the brutal blockade with which the Arab countries punished it in 2017. And Oman, true to form, maintained its historic role as mediator, friend to all, enemy to none. The result, by 2025, there was a sort of implicit consensus in the region. The fact is, open confrontation with Iran isn't worth it. The Gulf's economic model needed stability above all else, and a war with Iran could put all that at risk. Although later it seems Mohammed bin Salman got carried away, but that's another story. The fact is, war broke out and any consensus went out the window. To the point that today, the Gulf monarchy's stance toward Iran is no longer unified. There are three, three very distinct stances that are dividing the region. Pay attention. The first clear stance is that of the countries that have decided this war is not theirs, and that the less noise they make, the fewer blows they will take. Those who best represent this position are Qatar, Oman, and for obvious reasons, Iraq as well. Qatar has suffered brutal Iranian attacks. In March, missiles struck Ras Laffan, which, for those who don't know, is the heart of this small but extremely wealthy emirate's gas empire. And obviously, the Qataris condemned the attacks. But nevertheless, look at where they placed the blame. This is exactly what Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister said. — This war must be brought to an immediate end. The attacks must cease immediately as it is clear to all who stands to benefit most from this war and from drawing the region into this conflict. Unfortunately, what is taking place now serves those agendas. — Doha's interpretation seems clear. Israel has dragged the entire region into a senseless war against Iran pursuing a very specific goal to exhaust both sides and emerge as the dominant power in the Middle East. And of course, under that mission, any escalation would play right into the hands of the Netanyahu government. That is why

### [10:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCrlQybuIdM&t=600s) Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00)

despite the heavy attacks it has suffered, Qatar has condemned the attacks but at the same time has made it clear that it does not intend to escalate. On the contrary, as I mentioned earlier, they have opened diplomatic channels. They have softened their tone. And above all, they have sent a very clear message to Tehran. The Qatari Minister of State summed it up this way. — The regional countries are not an enemy of Iran and the Iranians are not understanding that idea. — Well, Oman is on the same page. The country that mediated between the United States and Iran right before the war began and which, as they said, felt things were going reasonably well. And there's Iraq. Well, of course, it remains the country closest to Tehran. This, as I said, is the first position we can identify. So, let's continue. This other stance is the opposite of the one we just saw. And of course, the country adopting it is clearly the United Arab Emirates. The country most attacked by Iran which believes that they must not back down. That by attacking them the people in Tehran have crossed a red line and that must have consequences. And so, where Doha sees an Israeli trap, Abu Dhabi sees an existential threat. They believe that if the Ayatollah's regime survives, it will be very difficult for the world to trust the Middle East again, which, of course, could be a devastating blow to their economic diversification model. That is why for them a ceasefire or a minimal agreement like the one currently being negotiated is not a good outcome. And don't imagine they're saying this in private. They're saying it publicly. This is what Yousef Al Otaiba, the Emirati ambassador in Washington, wrote not long ago in the Wall Street Journal, — "A simple ceasefire isn't enough. We need a conclusive outcome that addresses Iran's full range of threats: nuclear capabilities, missiles, drones, terror proxies, and blockades of international sea lanes. " — As you can see, they aren't asking to stop the war, they're asking for it to be fought and won. For Iran to be permanently disarmed. Missiles, drones, nuclear programs, proxies, everything. Basically, they understand that this is the only realistic scenario because everything that has been tried before has been to no avail. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the Emirati president, put it bluntly recently. Pay close attention to these words. — "Every Gulf state has pursued a policy of containing Iran through mediation, participation in shared energy fields, strategic agreements, or as in the case of the UAE, through trade relations. They have failed miserably. " — For Abu Dhabi, the policy of containment has failed. The tacit agreements with Tehran, the quiet diplomacy, the attempts to get along. All of that went out the window the day Iranian missiles began falling on its territory. And clearly, if containment doesn't work, there's only one option left: war. This is the second position, and between these two lies the third, the one currently championed above all by Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is one of the countries being most careful with its rhetoric. Publicly, they avoid clearly aligning themselves with any position. And above all, they don't trust anyone. Of course, they don't trust Iran, but they don't trust Washington all that much, either. Yes, Trump gave Mohammed bin Salman a royal reception in Washington in the hope of improving things, but the Saudis are very much their own people, and that's why they have long been seeking clear strategic independence. In recent years, they've done so by strengthening their ties with China. And not long ago, in September 2025, Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif signed a mutual defense pact. Any aggression against one is considered an aggression against both. In fact, this past April, Pakistani fighter jets landed at Saudi bases to fulfill their part of the agreement. — We have a strategic mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia. Everyone knows about that. It is a sovereign agreement, and we are bound by it. In view of that, while I was in Saudi Arabia, I immediately made the Iranian leadership aware that they should keep that in mind. — In other words, Riyadh is building an alternative security umbrella to the American one. They want to achieve their own strategic autonomy, and that's why they understand that this war is not essentially their concern, that it may even strengthen their position. After all, Saudi Arabia is the only country that continues to export large volumes of oil through the Red Sea. They're exporting less, but at much higher prices. Yes, they're losing money, but not as much as the countries that only have access to the Persian Gulf. What's more, Saudi Arabia has been trying for years to wrest Dubai's position as the Gulf's business hub. Starting in 2024, companies seeking contracts with the Saudi government will be required to move their regional headquarters to Riyadh. More than 600 have already done so. They're competing for airlines. Riyadh aims for 330 million passengers annually by 2030, a direct challenge to Emirates hub. They're competing for tourism, for investment, for talent, to be the great economic center of the Middle East. And right now in Riyadh, they understand that this war affects the Emirates above all, and they aren't alone. Saudi Arabia has begun to forge a regional block alongside Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan.

### [15:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCrlQybuIdM&t=900s) Segment 4 (15:00 - 17:00)

— The Middle East's new power brokers, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt unite. Fear of US abandonment is helping forge a new Middle East. — So, there you have it. These are three opposing positions. They will largely determine not only the course of this war, but also the future of this Middle East. The war in Iran has not only plunged the world into an unprecedented energy crisis that we will all pay for. It has also shattered Arab stability in the Middle East. The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC was a clear manifestation of this process. In fact, the timing was no coincidence. The UAE announced its withdrawal on the very day an emergency GCC summit was held in Jeddah precisely to address the Iranian threat, a very clear gesture. And take note because some analysts believe this could be just the beginning. That after OPEC, Abu Dhabi might reconsider its membership in the Arab League or even in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Something that just a year ago would have seemed completely unthinkable. In any case, if these organizations weren't exactly the most functional in the world, they are now effectively on ice. But there's yet another problem on top of that. It doesn't seem like there's a good way out of this mess. Yes, if the agreement with Iran that is being leaked is finalized, the Ayatollah's regime and the Revolutionary Guard will celebrate it as a historic victory. They are conceding what they already conceded a decade ago. And what they were already willing to concede in the negotiations mediated by Oman. And along the way, they will gain greater control of the Strait of Hormuz, fewer sanctions, and the return of many assets. Naturally, that could leave them stronger. If on the other hand, there is no agreement, well, everything will get worse for everyone. Right now, there doesn't seem to be a positive way out. That said, the question is for you. And today, I'm going to be very direct. How far do you think the clash between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will go? Tell us what you think in the comments. And if you found the video interesting, don't forget to hit like. Thank you so very much for watching. All the best. I'll see you next time.

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*Источник: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/52438*