# Predictions don't just forecast the future — they shape it #TEDTalks

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** TED
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNOdbWtKd9E
- **Дата:** 09.06.2026
- **Длительность:** 1:29
- **Просмотры:** 2,122
- **Источник:** https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/52917

## Описание

What do the story of Oedipus and your insurance premiums have in common? They are both driven by self-fulfilling prophecies. Philosopher and TED Fellow Carissa Véliz traces the hidden power of prediction, from Roman emperors who banned prophets to the AI algorithms quietly making decisions about your life right now. We tend to associate predictions with knowledge, she says, but they're actually attempts to grab power. So the next time someone tells you a specific outcome is inevitable, remember: they aren't describing the future — they're selling it.

## Транскрипт

### Segment 1 (00:00 - 01:00) []

Have you noticed how often people who make predictions about technology say that the future they are describing is inevitable? That's a red flag. Those predictions are designed to act as conversation stoppers. They're telling you, "Don't question me. Just accept what I'm saying as a fact. I'd like for this talk to be a conversation starter. " Predictions invite manipulation. Their power to shape the future creates the temptation to tamper with it and benefit from it. We're facing some pretty grim predictions from some of our most prominent profits. Larry Ellison, the chairman of a predictive software company appropriately named Oracle, has predicted a modern surveillance state in which citizens will be on their best behavior because we're being watched all the time. But the illusion of a world without crime is a world filled with a very different kind of crime, authoritarianism. What can we do to not sleepwalk into it? Plenty profits gain their power from people believing them. If we decide to defy this prediction instead of obeying it, we will choose products that are more respectful of privacy. For starters, first predictions are never facts. They are speech acts. Second, they invite manipulation. Third, they create and cover up injustice. Predictions can be weapons of power, but they only work if we believe