# Live Day Trading: Stocks, Options Strategies and Market Analysis $SPY

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** Real Day Trading
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stvXhnFwDSg
- **Дата:** 12.12.2025
- **Длительность:** 1:18:19
- **Просмотры:** 308
- **Источник:** https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/53083

## Описание

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Join me for Live Day Trading and Swing Trading with Pete Stolcers of OneOption. We will discuss the markets and day trade and swing trade stocks with relative strength and weakness.

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#daytrading #swingtrading #livetrading #stocks #stockmarket #trading

## Транскрипт

### Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00) []

— Mhm.

### Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00) [5:00]

— Mhm. — Hello traders. We are doing a special live event. We didn't even promote this one very long. We just decided "Hey, it's after the Fed instead of doing a live event before the Fed when we don't know what the reaction's going to be. Why don't we wait till after the Fed? Then maybe we'll have something to trade and look at. " Harry, how are you doing? — I'm great. How are you, Pete? — I'm good. You know, I've been wishing for a 20% market sell-off, not because I'm positioned for it, but because I want to get long at a better level. So, uh we were hoping that yesterday's Fed event would uh spark some buying or selling. Here we are, right where we were before the Fed announcement. So. Uh it definitely We were just talking about it. This is probably I mean, I've never seen a rally more hated uh than this one. And, you know, I It's not that people hate having a stock

### Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00) [10:00]

market that's doing well. It's more about individual traders thinking, you know what? I want to participate in this. And then, uh it getting to the point where, as you just said, the prices are just so extended, so high that um unless you're a very adept day trader, uh you're uncomfortable even swinging this market. And then, so you just keep missing and missing as it just keeps going up. Um Everyone, I think, would be very happy or refreshed Well, traders, maybe not people sitting with their 401(k)s with a 20% correction here. Yeah, I think this is a great investing market where you just buy and hold, and you just look at your portfolio at the end of the year and go, "Yay! " If you're trying to trade it, you know, I've got the S& P chart up right now. Uh you've got this battering of green and red candles on the way down, and it was not an easy drop to trade. Yes, there were stocks with relative weakness that you could have shorted, but it ended almost as fast as it started, and then we erased that long red candle from the Thursday that was uh post Nvidia earnings. And then, we just shot right up from there. And now, we've got this little battering of green and red candles, uh compressed price action near the all-time high, very difficult to trade because the volume has fallen off and we got these crappy intraday price moves which I'm just going to zoom out so that we can highlight what we're dealing with here. And you can see just long red, long green candles, nothing much going. You got a stock that looks great. It's starting to take off. You take a position in it and then it reverses. And now you're left going, "Oh gosh, well, this could be a day trade I have to hold overnight. " So yes, it's very frustrating and I've had those too. I had TERN was a stock that I traded yesterday and I liked it and I jumped on it too early, but that was one that I had to hold overnight. It did come back today, no problem, but um yeah, you can you've got to be very selective. You've got to pick your spots well right now. — Yeah, it's If you also if you look at the S& P and you do a year-to-date uh so it's almost pretty much a year anyway. Um outside of the tech uh industry, you know, what you got? AVGO is up over 100%, Nvidia up 28% and so on. And finance, which has done very well. The others, software, healthcare, uh real estate, consumer defensive, consumer cyclical, um uh utilities, energy definitely, basic mat, they are many more red than green. It's a very lopsided for a market that's at an all-time high. A very lopsided growth here that is it's no secret to say that this is very much embedded in an AI. I mean, this will be looked at historically as the AI rally. Um and a lot of hopes and dreams into AI and you see it, you know, it's easy to trade, you know, in terms of being a trader, it's easy to trade. It's great in terms of the intraday volatility of trading Nvidia, of trading Google and Apple and all these stocks that are known to be your investing stocks. But, um, if that AI bubble pops, all the other stocks below it are not strong enough to hold up this market. Yeah. It, uh, you know, and I'm starting to see that, uh, economically, I really viewed this as a tough period from, really, when Trump took office and got all of his tariffs in place and I'm going to They're going to be 50% tomorrow. No, it's going to be 100%. You better fall in the line and, you know, all these trade wars, all this [ __ ] quite honestly. Uh, just this news-related noise where the market would just run up and sell off on these individual news events. It also made it very unnerving and kind of difficult to participate in the rally. I think that all that garbage is behind us and there are massive credit issues globally. They span from US consumers, consumers around the world, to municipalities, to states, to sovereigns. So, it's out there. It always will be out there. It's not going to change. It's just a matter of when does the [ __ ] hit the fan? Well

### Segment 4 (15:00 - 20:00) [15:00]

Well, right now I see economic activity starting to improve in the US, and I think that we got through what was kind of a really tough window for us for the last 8 to 10 months, and I think things are they could start to stabilize in here. It's hard for me to say that. I know what the macro backdrop is. I know how you feel about the macro backdrop, but — Market is not going down either. — Uh an informed decision when one we're not getting numbers, um you know, the numbers you normally would rely on to make these inferences. And it what I found interesting about Powell's presser and look, obviously the man has an axe to grind and that was clear. Uh but he was also clearly saying that they don't exactly trust the numbers they're getting. I mean, I've never seen a Fed come out and say, "I I think that we're over reporting the jobs here by 60,000. " Uh basically saying, "Yeah, these numbers are wrong. I don't trust the numbers we're given and we're not getting uh the numbers we need to make these decisions and it puts us in a waiting period. " It it's so unique because there's never really been a time in history where the government just said, "Look, we're not going to give you these [clears throat] numbers. " Uh you know, where's your CPI? Where's your And then And then what they're not you can actually trust the numbers coming out. So, what you do is you start relying on uh private industry, right? private payroll and credit numbers from banks. Um and JPM certainly 2 days ago put out a number that scared everyone. Uh and at a certain point if there becomes a larger disconnect between what the private corporate numbers that are coming out say and what the government numbers are saying, uh that's where you're going to start to really get a very shaky market. And as you said, you're going to start to get some Is there really these hidden deep hidden credit concerns? — Yeah, it's well, I don't trust the government numbers and I haven't. I always have relied on ADP a lot more than I have the BLS because ADP cuts checks. They know how many payroll checks they cut last month. And so there's no fudging numbers and uh oh, I love it when the BLS reports, "Oh, there's this seasonal adjustment, you know, that's been going on for the last 30 years because car companies always lay people off in August. " And you know, all this other crap, all this seasonally adjusted garbage. Even if the government had been reporting numbers like they had been previously, they were wrong. Oh my god, jobs had been overstated by a million. We found that out in September. So, even when they posted the numbers, you can't trust them. And what actually has been more accurate has been the household survey that the Fed or the BLS conducts. That's been much more in line with what's actually happening and how people actually feel about employment versus the uh statistics that are released. So, um yeah, I just, you know, for me, I always come back to price action. The technicals are what I base all my decisions on. And right now, I see any bounce that comes into the market is quickly absorbed. And the more violent the drop is, the better the opportunity because it quickly runs its course and you get like we had here this kind of V-shaped bottom here or here. You had a one-day event. Boom, you're right back. Here you got two days. These dips are opportunities. No matter how much you hate the market, they're opportunities. And what are the odds that we're going to get a dip that keeps dipping? Not very high. And it's that level of confidence that allows me to execute my strategy, which I've been very successful with since June. And the reason that I'm able to do it with confidence is that bull markets die hard. They die hard. All this previous price action is what gives me confidence. I don't look at the most recent bar or two and base my decisions on that. I everything that's happened in the last 8 or 10 months. Bull markets die hard. That means that any drop, when you get the big one and it comes along, let's say it's a 20% correction, that bounce is going to tell us if there's going to be a trend reversal. And that's what happened back in here and I thought we might have a chance for

### Segment 5 (20:00 - 25:00) [20:00]

a trend reversal. So, I was looking for a lower high. You can see this big V bottom right in here. I was super cautious below the 100-day and 200-day moving average. And I could see what was happening with all the tariffs and all that BS. Guess what? We didn't roll over and make a lower high. If we had, that would have told me that sellers are in control and I would have been bearish trading that side of the market. But we didn't. We broke above it and since then, what have we done? We rallied. That tells me smart money is in the market, that these dips are going to be opportunities for us and when you get them, you have to act quickly because the market doesn't spend much time there. — So, November 20th was probably the only time that and I think we both commented that, you know, that was the only time where if we had broken below, which we did for a moment, the SMA 100 on spy there. And we had stayed below that, I could have started thinking about doing those bearish swings more often. But, you know, it's just we quickly bounced right back up. — Yeah, it just snapped right back. And for me, option implied volatility is finally spiked. So, I had to adjust my positions on the way down, which by the way, any of you who are attending, I've got two videos that I posted around that November 21st, 22nd uh time frame. I was going nuts the week of the 14th and 21st because I had exposure out there. I had naked puts, I had bullish put spreads. I had to adjust, and I In those two videos, I went through every single trade. Please watch those. Those are important videos because you continue along and you continue to use a strategy I've been using knowing that sooner or later you're going to have to jump into action. And I had I adjusted adjusted. I showed you how I got through that period, and now we're kind of back on track. But yes, Friday morning, I was selling more premium right in here when the market found support at the 100-day moving average. I saw that as just a fantastic opportunity. So, uh — selling puts for quite some time into this market taking advantage of that spiked IV and doing really well with it. And then the chat rooms are in start started picking up on that, and they uh they certainly uh started making some nice passive income. It's a really good way to play a market if you don't fully trust the bounce, but you get some nice uh premium is to sell those puts. — I'm making on average, I'm making between 8 to 10% in about 3 weeks. Yeah. Where are you going to get that kind of return? And a lot of people will look at that and go, "8 to 10%? And I got to wait 3 weeks for it? Huh, I could just go day trade this stock and make 5%. " Yeah, right. Well, you're going to have to pick a an unbelievable stock to do that and it's the probability of making that money versus muddling around when the market's not giving you anything to day trade where it's up and it's down, you got sector rotation, the sector looks great today. Oh, tomorrow it sold off. You're nowhere uh with that type of situation versus generating the income. It's boring. The market's boring. Take what it gives you. And there will be times when I'm going to be buying calls [clears throat] with both hands. It's just not now. Don't have the setup for it. So, you have to kind of roll with what the market is giving you and uh why don't I do two things? One is we had a question, are today's valuations justified or are we all just trading off of data that might not reflect the real economy anymore? First of all, valuations uh as soon as you start talking about valuations, you start uh assuming that you're an expert and that you know what a proper valuation is and the market can remain irrational for a very long time. Stocks were grossly grossly overvalued a year ago. And we were trading at forward multiples that we haven't seen since the dot-com era. Okay. Oh, here we are. The market's what? 15% higher? So, valuations don't mean anything. Just follow price action. — And keep in mind use it as your guide. — You got a piece of heart or anything? — No, go ahead. No, uh you keep in mind that one the market when you think

### Segment 6 (25:00 - 30:00) [25:00]

valuations the market is never valuing a true value, right? A true value if you took a company and you said, "Okay, from revenue and you see if you sold off all the parts this company is worth $1 million and let's say a $10 million. So let's say there's a thousand shares of the company. The true value is you get it's $100 a share, right? Um and which case if you did true value, right? Tesla is going to be at like 109 and and all these stocks you're going to see the market drop around 60%. Um valuations on companies are not based on what the true value of the company is, which is exactly what the company's worth divided by the number of shares and so on. What the valuation is based on is what the market believes the company will be worth in X amount of time in the future. Some let's just arbitrarily call it a year or two years in the future. And that's where you get those differing opinions, right? What is Tesla is not as a company worth $444 a share, but if there is a belief that Tesla will be worth $1,000 a share in five years time, well then $444 a share is a bargain right now, right? So you buy it and you just hold and you wait because you're very strong in the belief that that's where it's going to go. Obviously, if you're an institution that believes that and they put out the reports and their price points and all that and all those things are based strongly on narrative. All right, and certain stocks and certain companies are better at controlling narrative than others. So as a trader and this is why it's always hard as he said to play expert because you can look at the valuation and what you're looking at is generally some rough estimate of true value compared to the shares and in which case you're always looking at it in terms of this is all overvalued. But, what it really is the narrative of those companies and how the institutions, but whether they believe those narratives or whether they don't believe those narratives, right? I mean, certainly it pays off. And Nvidia, when you go back 3 4 years ago, had a narrative. This is what we plan to do, and the stock was was, you know, they've already split several times, but clearly if you put $1,000 in Nvidia 5 years ago, you'd be doing very well right now because it's starting getting valued not at what the company was worth, but what they thought it could do and that paid off. It did better than what they thought it would do in the future. So, don't play around in your head with overvalued or not overvalued. If you want to go and say, "Yeah, I think this market is insanely overvalued. You know what? I'm going to put a some long-term hedge on to protect against a an increased likelihood of a black swan event. " Fine. don't make it a big portion of your account. Put a small hedge on. Do that. Yes, there might be an increased likelihood of a black swan event. But, other than that, valuation should not affect your trading. Uh let me talk about Nvidia. This [clears throat] is a weekly chart of Nvidia. If you follow technicals, you don't have to worry about fundamentals. Because what the technicals are going to show you is what the smart money is doing. These are the big firms that have all the bucks, have done their research. They've gone out and they've talked to component suppliers for all the computer companies out there. They know who's hot. They know what's happening. They know where they're going to be putting their money for 2 or 3 years. And they know they have market impact costs. And they discount future cash flows. They're willing to pay a premium for this stock right here right now. They're not going in and out of it. They're not trading it. They're long-term investors. Have that, you'll see it in the price action in the form of stacked green handles. And when you see that, you know you've got institutions buying that stock, and especially when you have relative strength. So, as soon as you have relative strength, green line above zero, that tells you that even when the market is down, what's the stock doing? It's up. That's the tell. That's our edge. Institutions, long-term money is buying the stock. And that bears out in the technicals. So, we don't care about the fundamentals. Because if the fundamentals change, guess what we're going to see in the price action? We're going to start seeing red candles, and they're going to tell us, "Hey, I think this trend is over. " And now we're starting to see lower high, double top. Okay, it's time to take some chips off the table. So, if you are a long-term investor in Nvidia, and you had to weather a big drop like this, again, this is a weekly chart. Now, you get

### Segment 7 (30:00 - 35:00) [30:00]

this big drop. Are you flushed out of the position? Are you afraid? No, you're not. Why? Because you're looking at all this buying, and these buyers are not just going to throw in the towel right away. So, now when you get your bounce, and you know you're going to get your bounce, like to see as a long-term investor is a new high, a substantial new high. Not a marginal And when the stock can't get back to that high, it's a sign of selling pressure. Then this is where you start to unwind that long-term position. And not before. You don't panic out on that. You wait for that. — Uh someone asked about Teva. Teva looks fine. It's boring stock to me. Um I mean, make a few nickels on it. It's a great daily chart. TEVA. Uh it has held its earning pop. Uh nothing wrong with it. Decent long-term swing. I mean, you could probably There's not much premium there, so I wouldn't sell much puts in, but it's a good stock if you were to buy and hold for a while. It's a decent if you're going to swing trade long with not much risk. Uh it's okay. Um the yen carry trade — I personally like it. I mean, — You like Teva? — This is exac- This is exactly what I'm talking about. This is not mom and pop out there driving the stock higher. This is consistent, persistent buying pressure. This is long-term buying pressure. Oblivious to what the market has been doing. This stock is moving higher. I like it. This is going to be a good long-term buy and hold, for sure. And there's your big breakout. So, this is where you're usually going to have lots of selling pressure, lots of profit taking after a breakout of that magnitude. What happens? The stock holds the gap. Okay? That means that any profit taking was met by buyers. Oh, it gets a little bit ahead of itself and it retraces back to AVWAP. When a stock starts to distance itself from AVWAP, you know those long-term buyers are in there. That's exactly what's happened. The stock's going higher. It's a good long-term buy and hold. — Yen carry trade concern? I mean, honestly, again, don't play amateur economist on it. If it happened I mean, look, you people you borrow yen, right, at really low rates, and the yen is weak, and so you convert it to dollars, and then you buy higher yielding assets like stocks, and treasury, crypto, blah, blah, right? And it works. Great. It works as long as the Japanese rates stay low, and the yen stays weak, and you don't get margin called. Okay. Uh the if the Bank of Japan starts to tighten, or you know, the yen starts to get stronger, then people start unwinding that trade. What does that mean? They sell their uh their equities, and that's where you get the dip in the market. Uh we saw it happen before, and you know, it caused a little bit of dip, but these things aren't catastrophic events. They're just one of a thousand different things that could cause a potential dip in the market, but I would say in in where it should be in your thinking, is there a trade you should make based on it? No. No, there's no trade that you should uh that you should make um on fear of uh of a of that on the yen carry trade uh unwinding. Yeah, and I of course I'm fearful of it. Japan has 250% debt to GDP. Yeah, worried about that. Japan's one of our largest debt holders, and they're selling US Treasuries. That means our borrowing costs go up. Yeah, I'm worried about it. I'm worried about Russia possibly imploding. We don't have any uh real exposure there. I think most international banks don't have a lot of exposure there, but they've got it in China. There are worries everywhere. France is an issue. Their yields are going up. They're having higher borrowing costs. Same thing in the US. So, yeah, there are tons of worries out there constantly. And is a house of cards? Sure. but is it going to happen in 5 years? 10 20 years? I don't know. I live in Illinois. Printing presses are running full-time here and property taxes are skyrocketing. So, it's nothing that I'm going to trade because I follow the technicals. And when the smart money tells me it's time to get out, that's what I pay attention to. Not the headlines. The

### Segment 8 (35:00 - 40:00) [35:00]

headlines that have been out there for the last year, 2 years, 3 years. The sun's going to explode. Major credit crisis coming. That's how you get views on YouTube. So, everything right now is sensationalism. It's just unbelievable the crap that I see when I go on to YouTube about all these guys saying, "This time for sure. It's really happening now. Hurry up. Get the cash. You don't have much more time, love. " What a bunch of crap. Do not listen to those headlines. Follow price. That's what's going to guide you. — It really has to do I mean when you're um getting duped by these uh scam artists out there who are telling you to buy their, you know, stupid 3-hour tour class on whatever. Um it tells me also that you're not really serious about seeing trading as a career, right? If you think of any other career out there. If you seriously wanted to become a lawyer or you know, you engineer, um would you trust someone out there saying, "Hey, uh I'm not exactly an engineer myself because I can't prove that I've actually done anything in engineering, but I'm going to sell you an engineering course that's going to make you the best engineer in the world for $2,000. Just trust me and take it. " You would never do that, right? You'd go to MIT. you'd go to school, you'd get you turn you intern at some great company. You'd want to work at SpaceX, wherever it is. Um and you'd want to become an accredited engineer that actually has a good career. You would never fall for these type of scams. And falling for these scams means you actually think that there is a shortcut, a sort of magic way to come in here and do this consistently. And the reason for that is we always talk about is there's plenty of anecdotal evidence of people hitting it big one time. It's very akin to a casino. Yes, there are plenty examples of someone who came in and won on a slot machine or made a big bet and won. But over the long haul, those people lose. So, unless you start wrapping your head around trading as a career, it takes time. It's not It's going to be a lot of time your head down working before you actually start seeing a return. Um it's not going to end well for you. So, I you know, that alone should you know, think of your mindset. Am I treating this like a real actual career? — And I do have someone asking about black swan events, too. And again, this goes same thing with what you hear on YouTube. Well, a black swan event, for first and foremost, is not something that's going to be predicted. It's going to come out of left field. So, — By definition. — Secondly, and second Secondly, COVID to me was one of the few black swans that I've seen in my career. I mean, it came out of nowhere and it brought the world to a screeching halt in a matter of a few weeks. No one could have seen that happening. But there were still warning signs in the market that told you that the upside was limited and you should have been in cash anyway before it happened. So, uh but as far as planning anything around black swan events, you're never going to see it coming. So, trade what's in front of you, don't worry about it, and uh if it's a credit crisis that comes, okay, I'll tell you one thing having been through one of these, um you're going to get some pretty deep initial drops, but they are going to bounce violently. I mean, like almost back to the prior high. And the reason for that is because the Fed's going to turn on the printing presses like you have never seen before, like they did during COVID. And then every you're going to have this rush of money, and it's going to find its way into the market, and everything's going to get propped up again. And you could even see a huge buying climax like we're seeing now. Is this climax that we're seeing now a result of all the money printing that happened during COVID? Yeah, quite possibly. The money's got to find its way somewhere. And so, I don't even know if I can zoom back out as far as COVID, but the thing is my point is that if it's a credit crisis that you're worried about, I'm worried about it, too. But you're going to have time to adjust and exit your position cuz the Fed is going to print money like mad, and at some point it won't work anymore, but you'll have time to exit your positions on that lower high double top.

### Segment 9 (40:00 - 45:00) [40:00]

So, until then, keep freaking making money trading the long side. We're not selling off, and you're missing a big move. You're missing a potential big move to the upside. Valuations, whatever they are, they can go higher. Sean wrote um They're profitable for the first time last month to pay themselves after 3 years. Congratulations. Uh slightly above a break even. My question is now I'm facing anxiety and fear to trade. I mean that's not unusual. Um you know, you're basically you know, the fear it's easy to define, right? Which is you don't want to believe that was a fluke. You for the first time at that that was the accumulation of all the heartache, all the pain you suffered, all the learning that came along with that, that you are now a better, more experienced trader and you are able to take profit and you paid yourself. If you start trading again and you start losing, you're going to feel that was a fluke. wasn't uh because of all the time and energy and experience. So, right now you believe I did it. I'm at that point, but you one losing one more losing month and all of the sudden you start to doubt whether or not that was real. And it depends, you know, are you journaling? Are you able to look Is there quantitative evidence? Can you point and look at that month that you just had where you paid yourself and see what you did right. See how and and how it was different from the other months. Maybe you sold puts. Maybe you closed your losers faster. Maybe you added to your winners or held onto your winners longer. There There's something you did there that was different. And if you can identify what that is, then you then you can become more confident that this wasn't a fluke. That yeah, I may still have some losing months going forward, but clearly I have gotten better. And that really is the way to sort of alleviate that anxiety, which is to quantify it, to prove it to yourself other than just saying I had one good month. So, that's why it's important to journal. It's important to understand what's working and what's not working because those things you the numbers don't lie. And the more you can look at them and have confident that this type of trade works. Pete and I we did I mean we always talk about we did all these put credit spreads, bullish put spreads. And when you [snorts] did 350 of them in a year and you look back and 94% I think it was worked. That gives you incredible confidence to do the 351st one cuz you know it's going to work. — Yeah, and before COVID, that was just before COVID hit, I was watching the market. The market was making marginal new highs, it was floating higher, tiny compressed little candles, lots of resistance. And so, I had no exposure in February of 2020. I told everyone we had one or two put positions we had just put on. And then I saw a nice market crack down. We reeled those back in for tiny loss and went to the sidelines cuz the upside rewards were smaller than the downside risks. Then, when we got the first leg down, did well, you know, took the short side, bought VIX calls. I mean, made money on it. So, you know, that wasn't a black swan event. It was just kind of looking at what the price action had been telling me into that event and adjusting my trades accordingly. So, that's what you have to do is look at the S& P 500. The market guides all of our trading decisions. That is the starting point. — All right. I'm just shorting MSTR here on the side. Um Uh we have some question here on both Well, they're kind of the same question. It's on Oracle. Is it a good time to buy the dip on MSTR? sell uh sell some puts? Uh the answer is always the same for me. Do you see technical evidence that you should buy a dip here? Do you see technical evidence that the stock has bottomed out? Um or is it just you thinking to yourself, "Well, [ __ ] This thing's dropped a lot. It's got to rebound at some point. Going to get in now. " That's the usual buying the dip mentality, which is just looking at a chart and going, "Well, this has dropped a bunch. Okay. Oracle's going to be worth more than this. " Yeah, look, if you're if you can buy Oracle now and hold it for a year, I guarantee you probably make money. Um but, if you're

### Segment 10 (45:00 - 50:00) [45:00]

trading Oracle, wait for support. Wait for technical evidence. Same thing with MSTR. — Uh that's right. And if you look at Oracle's last earnings announcement, uh Larry Ellison said, "Oh, yeah, we're going to 10x revenues by 2030. " Oh, okay. Market gaps up. Stock gaps up huge. So, if you buy Oracle up here going, "Oh my god, this stock's so undervalued. They're going to 10x their revenues. " And then you wait a few days, which you have to wait a few days because you got to let the dust settle. You have to see what the smart money is doing. Well, in this particular case, you can see that that initial reaction, the next day you get a long red bearish engulfing candle. Huh. Somebody sees this as an opportunity to take profits. Okay, well, you're still in waiting mode. Oh, look, we got follow-through into the gap. Oh. Well, in this case it was a reversal and there was never a sign anywhere in here that this move was legitimate. So, on the way down, you're going to be waiting to see if buyers come in and support the stock and if the stock starts to creep back into this gap, you need a week's worth of data. One or two candles is not enough because those sellers can come right back in and blam, send it down to a new low. So, it's going to take time. This is a longer uh there's a big gap, so it's going to take a longer period of time for us to determine if this is a legitimate area to buy the stock in or not. And most of the gaps, you can look back and go, that was a gap higher. Stock continued in that direction. Okay, that was a gap lower. But you needed time to see where it was going to be going. So, give it a week, maybe 10 days. And then if it's a legitimate buy, you're going to see nice stacked green consecutive candles and you're going to see follow-through and some of this gap is going to be filling very nicely. Then you might be able to take a chance on buying Oracle. During LPTE, what do you like to do in the meantime? Passing time boredom. Look, when I was learning, I was studying. That's what I was doing. Uh LPTE, low probability trading environments where market's really not going anywhere, there's no trend. Um and it's not a great high probability trading environment because you're not going to get market tail and support behind your trade. Can you still find good trades? Of course you can, but it's always much easier when the market is going to help you in one direction or the other. So, uh when I was learning, I was uh studying. I was trading. Now, what do I do? I watch uh I watch TV shows. I have an iPad over here. I'm watching Banshee right now on HBO. I mean, I've literally watched probably 40 different shows in the last 2 years or a year and a half now. So, that's what I do. I watch shows when there's nothing going on. But, what if you're not at the point where you're like, "Yeah, I'm a profitable trader. This is what I do for a living. " You should be studying. You should be watching the charts. You should be taking notes. You should be setting alerts. You should be checking your journal. You should be doing all those things that you probably don't want to do. But, again, it's a career and as a career, it takes work. So, that's what you should be doing until you get to the point where you don't have to and then yeah, you can watch shows all day. I am searching. I am looking. I am setting alerts. And that's what I'm doing. I'm looking for my next opportunity. And when the market turns around or the stock reaches a specific price point, I am going to be ready to take action. And if the market were looking a little bit weaker in here, I would be eyeing up AFRM as a short. And I will show you why. So, on the daily chart, AFRM, nothing great here. It's got a little bit of weakness today. It's below AVWAP. It's taken out the low from yesterday, which this is a long green candle that's reversed. We'd like to see the open of that long green candle preserved and we've been able to go below it. That tells me that the buyers that were there yesterday are not there today and that the stock could have some weakness. So, today the stock is selling off. That's some pretty heavy selling on decent volume. And now it's starting to pull back a little bit. Right click. Create alert. Tell me when it's below VWAP and I might have a trade. That's what I do all day or I talk to trial takers

### Segment 11 (50:00 - 55:00) [50:00]

find out who they are, what experience they have, how we might be able to help them or I'm working on trading systems I'm writing. So I always make time use of my time during the course of the day. I suggest that you study as much as you can and as Harry suggested I suggest that you keep looking and looking at charts and setting alerts so that when opportunity presents itself on a silver platter you're going to be ready to take action. — Where is legitimate support on Oracle? I mean to me right now I'd say it's probably around 186 18650 because you have those two lows there on 1125 and today. But I mean what's real support for it? Break the 200 SMA at 21278, stay above the 200 SMA and then you go long. But you put an alert there and you move on. You just put an alert at the SMA and move on. That is if you are a very conservative trader. Obviously you have a gap here, right? So if tomorrow Oracle goes into the gap into the earning gap there and goes in and stays in the gap and stays above today's high and you're a little bit more and you want to day trade it you can start considering that a level of intraday you know kind of multi-day support there. So it depends on how conservative you want to be with it. You can either use 200 SMA or you can use the gap there that ultimate low of 18650 but I would probably use the gap if you're day trading and I'd use the 200 if you're swing trading. — Now this is kind of this dotted line here was a nice prior resistance level. Now we broke out above it. This should be a decent support level in here. It's what I'm looking at. But after an earnings reaction like that, I wouldn't be out there buying it yet. Like I said, I'd be waiting to see if it can preserve this and I would need to see it into this gap consistently. And it's still got the 200-day moving average. So I think Harry just mentioned it's got to consistently fill in the gap and close above the 200-day moving average. If it can do that, then your 200-day moving average is your stop out on the way back down. That's your support and that gives you plenty of upside with limited downside and you've proven that this horizontal support level has uh attracted buying and that the 200-day moving average was easily breached. This would be a good entry point for a longer-term long position on it. — Okay, let's see. Uh MSTR I just I'm just scalping it and having fun with it. Right now I'm short at 174. 71. Um and I'll take a couple hundred bucks and then scalp it on the other side. I'm just going back and forth on the stock. It's just a great movement stock that you know, right now is respecting VWAP. So, not much uh not much to say on there. Uh let's see here. Um So far I have — a note on that, Harry. Just one note on it. It is a hard damn stock to trade. — Yeah, it is. — It is all over the freaking board. And I've traded it. I've done okay with it, but it's not an easy stock to trade. And right now if you're looking crypto, I kind of like BM and R a little bit better and you can see how it's come off of the low here and it's been able to hold that support level. So, if you're liking crypto, I would tend to favor it. But, the whole crypto space, I don't know how to value it. Is AI going to come out with a way to mine Bitcoins even better than what we currently have at a fraction of the cost? I don't know. If they do, then what does that do to the whole Bitcoin premise? I know gold is hard to mine and get out of the earth and there's only so much of it. I don't know about cryptocurrencies and how easy they are to mine or any of that. So, I have a little bit of a of difficulty investing in things that have no real inherent value. It's hard to be long dollars, too, when you keep printing more of them. So, — Yeah, it kind of — stocks. — [clears throat] — What's the first technical I look at? I mean, look, the first thing I do is I'll go on Option Stalker. I'll look at my favorite searches on there, whether it is red royal flush or it's, you know, bullish relative strength or any one of those, you know, depending if I'm feeling bearish or bullish on the day, you know, or I'll look at both depending on daily today I'm looking on both sides of the market. I'll see some of the

### Segment 12 (55:00 - 60:00) [55:00]

um uh some of the choices there. So, you know, let's say on red royal flush, you know, right now coming up on that search, you have uh a stock like Marvell. So, if I type in Marvell, but I'll immediately see yes, it's down by the day and I'll look at the daily chart and notice, oh, it's bouncing off the 50 SMA. Until it breaks below that, no deal. Maybe I'll put an alert there below the 50 SMA and then I will just uh move on, right? Um but, if I look at something like PDD, I look at it and it's on the red royal flush as a bearish trade for today. I'll look at the daily chart. Yeah, daily chart looks like it is good, but then the next step after the daily chart, after looking identifying the stock, looking at the daily chart, I'll now go to the intraday chart and see, well, PDD is now above VWAP. Why? Well, because the market has surged up around $3 since we actually started uh this stream. So, okay, uh is it going up because the market's going up or it's got some relative strength? So, I'll look at relative strength on the stock, and then I'll set maybe an alert at VWAP. If it breaks VWAP while the market stays strong, yeah, maybe then I'll consider shorting PDD. That's kind of how my process works. I'll check out obviously market first, and then I'll check out the uh the searches on Option Stalker, then I'll look at the daily chart, intraday chart, and then I'll go from there. — TSEM, is it a good long here or has it rallied too far? — Which one? — Oh, one uh TSEM. — Mhm, it's a nice chart. Uh this is strong stock. You want to wait for it to come back to the EMA 8. So, um it's a little bit overextended, but I need to have that pullback. But yes, this is a really good-looking stock. at that volume. So, I like it long term. This is the kind of stock that I would want to own. I would just want to own it at a lower price. — I'd like to see more volume on it. I don't like stocks that do under a million a day, but yeah, it's a great chart. See here, what else do we got? Thoughts on gold and silver? They're strong. Okay. Um Uh the your trading got a lot better when you stopped taking Discord calls. That is Boy, is that true. Shouldn't listen to anyone. You shouldn't listen to me, Harry, you shouldn't listen to anyone, okay? You should make your own decisions because there's no way to refine your trading if you're listening to someone else because you don't know what their risk tolerance is, decision-making process is. When something goes wrong, you don't know what to do, you don't know how to improve it. So, uh you have to learn how to do this yourself, and following someone else while you're learning is exactly the wrong thing to do. Trade one share. That's the right thing to do. Make mistakes. Journal. Learn from those mistakes. That's how you get better. — I also like to say I Hey, I got in a lot better shape the moment I stopped listening to the fat bastard down at the bar. No [ __ ] Really? I mean at least with the fat bastard down at the bar, he'll give you some advice to, you know, drink a bit and have some fun, but uh if you're trying to get health advice there, probably not a good idea. Uh to me, those scammers — are self-evident. — Or your marriage counselor who's been divorced four times. That's one of your go-tos, Harry. — Yeah. Hey, man, don't you want to take advice from someone who's been there? You know what? You [ __ ] up once and you learned your lesson, okay, I'll take advice. Four times? Starting to think maybe you're not the best relationship person to go to. — Uh GLD and SLV, yeah, they're both very strong. Uh again, they're If you're going to trade that, I've got to buy pullbacks. You will get pullbacks. When you get them, those are your entry points. So, uh would I chase it at an all-time high? No, I wouldn't. And here's kind of your classic example. You've got nice cup and handle here. Uh SLV runs up too high, gets above that EMA eight, and then it pulls back. Great. Now it's back under the EMA eight. I can start thinking about buying it here. Let's see how far this dip

### Segment 13 (60:00 - 65:00) [1:00:00]

goes. Will it reach the 50-day moving average? No, it didn't. It made a higher low above the 50-day. That is bullish because buyers don't feel like they're going to have a chance to buy it at the 50-day moving average, so they start getting in here. Well, this is where you can get in. And now you get a nice little run higher. You're not chasing above the EMA eight. You're waiting for it to pull back again. Those are your entry points. Now it's recovering. Once it's got up gotten this high, that's going to attract profit taking. selling. You're going to get your pullback to the EMA eight. That's how you have to do it. You cannot chase, or you're going to end up buying up in here and then having to weather What was that about a uh 20% pullback? Not many people can stomach a 20% drop. I'll tell you that. — No. Um — [panting] — Who else do we have? Uh what factors help determine if setup is better as a day trader holding it as a swing? Well, the market is your number one uh determining factor when you're looking at a swing trade, right? Um if you are again, the market is your best friend when you're if the market is down and you're short, that's just the extra push that's pushing that stock down. If you're long and market's up, it's just going to be lifting that stock up. Without that extra shot of adrenaline, kind of like that nitro boost if you're racing a car. Um the stock has to work overtime. The stock is doing all the work there. And if you have a good, you know, market trend like we have, then you want to swing and swing long in that market direction. Right now, yes, the market is bullish, but, you know, if you look since you go back probably I think it's since October 27th, market hasn't moved, right? It it's dipped, it's gone back up. We're in the same spot. So, when you're talking swings, if you had done a bullish swing that if it was in October and you had it to year end, uh you would not have had any market help there. But, if you were doing a bullish swing that started in the beginning of December, then yeah, you're in pretty good shape, right? So, it all depends on the time frame you're looking at, uh but you need a good market trend in the direction of your swing to help you. Even if you got right now, wow, this stock is really bearish and going down, I want to swing it down, um unless the market's going to start dropping, it's just going to be really difficult for those long-term swings to pay off. You need a good market talent. — How do I feel about jaded lizards? They come up with so many goddamn names for these [ __ ] strategies. It drives me crazy, you know? I want to just tell me what the damn strategy is instead of attaching a name to it like all the candlestick patterns, you know, the three dogs barking and all that crap. So, how do I feel about selling naked puts and then selling a bearish call spread against it? I don't want to do that. I like the stock. I want to have my upside to the trade. And if you look at tastytrade and Tom Sosnoff, all the guy does is sell premium. He sells straddles, strangles, sell premium. Period. Neutral, neutral all the time, non-directional. And hey, it works for him or supposedly, I don't know. I don't see his P& L, but he sells premium and then he's constantly adjusting. And I've watched the tastytrade channel. He's constantly having to adjust stuff cuz he just sells premium all the time. So, if you're in the mood in the mode where you don't know no crap, you have no idea what the direction's going to be, uh so, you just sell premium on both sides and then you're in constant adjustment mode. Great. That's certainly a route you can go. I don't believe it's effective at all. It certainly hasn't worked for me. I'm a directional trader. What's the difficulty of being a directional trader? Right now is a problem with being a directional trader cuz I can't give you a concrete, confident sense of where the market is going. So, I have to pare back my risk exposure. I have to use strategies that are neutral to slightly bullish that are generating income, probably the same type of income that he's generating or more, but there will be times

### Segment 14 (65:00 - 70:00) [1:05:00]

when I do have a good read on direction. And when I have that, I'm going to far outperform anybody who's a neutral trader. I've been doing it for 30 years. I've seen who makes money and who doesn't. Directional trading is where it is, but it requires patience. — To me, the only way a J which is really just a fancy short put, right? Um but is if you have a skew, right? If the IV on your calls are disproportionately higher than the IV on the puts, rare, but it happens. Then find if that skew occurs, right? If you get that call skew going on, then it can be preferable to just doing the short put. But if it's flat or normal, if you get no skew going on there, then you might as well just do the short put and not cap, right? Because you're capping there and you're not getting this huge theta burn anyway. You're the real P& L contributor is coming from the short put. The other one is just kind of capping you. So, yeah, does it limit you, but look, unless you see that skew, just go with the short put. There's no reason to overcomplicate this [ __ ] — I'm going to show you a trade that I did this morning that I like. It's my trade of the day, week, whatever for the uh presentation. I like EOS, but I like it to sell puts on it. And so, this morning I looked at where I would be willing to buy that stock and I'd be willing to be long the stock down here around the $13 level. It's got a nice support level right there. I've got the 50-day moving average I can lean on. It had inched its way above AVWAP and the 50-day. I like this long green candle here. Half of it had been preserved. You can see how it was tested, but bounced right off of that. Those are all signs of confirmation. that buyers are engaged. So, I sold the December 26 expiration the 1350 puts, and I did that for $0. 55. When that expires in 2 and 1/2 weeks, I will generate an 8% return. You can multiply that out and figure out what that is annualized, and then maybe you can get a little more excited about the trade. The probability of success is very high on that, and it's a short-term trade, 2 and 1/2 weeks taking advantage of extremely high option implied volatilities, accelerated time premium decay, seasonal strength, a market that's within striking distance of the all-time high. Check box, check box, check box. Those are the trades I'm looking for. I've been doing for the last 8 months or so. — Um I really like Ally, A L Y. Uh Freddy, as you mentioned that there in the chat. It might actually be a pick of the week for me. I think it's a great stock. Certainly doing better than SoFi. I still have some hope for SoFi calls tomorrow. Um doesn't take much to push those over, but A L Y is a real beneficiary, particularly to the Fed. So, I like that stock. Um I like LLY as well. Too expensive stock. You'd have to use debit spread, probably, if you um if you wanted to trade it. So, those are probably two decent picks there, and some good mentions in the YouTube chat. — And he saw my comment this morning, right? — Oh, on — was — stock growth. Yeah. — Yeah, on Lilly. Hey, they got this new drug. It's fantastic. It's even better than Zepbound and the other weight loss drugs. Well, half the people vomit and are nauseous and the other half at other half have diarrhea. I think that will help you lose weight just in and of itself. If we can [clears throat] just make you feel like [ __ ] and have diarrhea, then you're going to lose weight. — Yeah, there's plenty of bad food you can eat, too. — Oh, god. Crazy. But, yeah, this stock does look good. This is a nice little bullish flag formation right in here, too. And you can see how miraculously it's miraculous, Harry, how all these things work out. Look where the stock found support. There is nothing to suggest that there would be support here except for this thing called I use it religiously. It's on all my charts. I love it. — Let's see. Uh

### Segment 15 (70:00 - 75:00) [1:10:00]

Useful tools to complement OSP, I mean Trade Exchange I find is invaluable. I like Trade Exchange. It's a good news uh feed. Um You got to be careful with it. I mean, you don't want to use news to trade, but you don't, you know, it is good to know if all of a sudden you see Tesla pop up 20 bucks right now, um and it's just because of a tweet that Elon Musk made. Well, you know, that might not be as substantial as they just won a trillion-dollar contract from wherever. So, it's good to have Trade Exchange up. Um a good journal, obviously. Um so, there are certain things that you can use. Uh to me, the chat room at One Option is probably one of your best uh places because A, if you have questions, you can ask them there, and B, we're trading actively in the room all the time uh and commenting on the market, on what's going on. So, um you know, after that, it really is I mean, there's only so you can have all these tools, right? You can have monitors, monitors. You can have one option stalker here and TC2000, you can have the chat room, you can have all this stuff, but if you're screwed up here, right? If you have a mindset issue where you're not and this goes to even another question about increasing your average gain and reducing your average loss. If you if you cannot hold your winners long enough, if you hold on to your losers too long, if you get into this I must buy the dip, if you move away from technicals too often, if you play amateur economist too often, it doesn't matter all the tools you have. It doesn't matter what Pete and I tell you. It doesn't matter how many books you read and how much information you bring in. If you cannot figure out how to fix here, you will not be a successful trader. And that needs to be your a priority. Yeah, I do use uh Trade Exchange as well. It's very handy. They've got uh they really cut to the quick on the news items. I'll have a link in it in the uh comments section of the uh live event video, but uh especially like yesterday when the Fed was coming out and they had their uh excerpts from the statement. It was uh nice to have kind of a cheat sheet of what the bullet points were in there. And the one thing that I picked up on right away was that the Fed was going to be selling $40 worth of T-bills in the next 30 days. And I was like, "Okay, that's a liquid liquidity injection. " So, I would not be surprised to see the market go up, and anti-dollar play come in, that being gold, silver, crypto. So, I did a little B M N R trade on it yesterday. So, yeah, I trade exchanges very good news source. But, yeah, gather information from as many raw sources as you can. Not anybody who is conducting analysis on the news, but the news itself. All right. We've definitely gone over an hour here. — to be — I get this a lot. I don't know, maybe I'm looking tired and old or something, Harry, but man, I get this a lot. What happens when Pete dies? It's going to happen with one option. Is Pete retiring? I'm not going anywhere fast, okay? I take absolutely no prescription drugs, not even aspirin. So, our health is good. I could always lose a few pounds. I could get hit by a truck tomorrow, but uh you know, I plan on doing this for a long time. I enjoy doing this. I enjoy educating still. Uh maybe I pair that back just a little bit and focus more on trading. Educating part does take me away from trading, and I do miss that, but I'm still working on Options Doctor Pro. Will and I have got some really great stuff that we're going to be doing with that. So, uh I love what I do. I You know, how much golf can you play? How much fishing can you do? I'll find time for that. So, yeah, I plan on being around for a while, God willing. — I mean, hell, I'm the one smoking and popping pills like it's Pez. You're the one getting the comments. — Stan. — Hey, you're going to be like George Burns. You lived to 95 smoking a cigar. — cigar in my mouth. That'll be great. Um hey, if anyone out listening hasn't checked it out, checked out the Chat with Traders interview, um but look, she wasn't the best interviewer. I like Tessa a lot, but she it was, you know, a tough slog there to get to, but there's some gems in there that hopefully you find. Um and uh you know, if you haven't given that a listen, give that a shot. Uh bond auction just came off by

### Segment 16 (75:00 - 78:00) [1:15:00]

the way. As expected, no real issue on the bond auction. I can't believe the market is now green when overnight futures at one point had us down $7 on the S& P. So, uh we have now, once again, this market refuses to drop. — I had to chat with traders. I got to tell you, I've done an interview. I've talked to Tasha before and she is a sweet little meek and mild person and then here she's just dropping bombs left and right. She's like, "Uh-huh. Okay. " Yeah, tough. Uh — Oh, and the podcast come out probably January 1st. That's what I'm uh that's now what I am aiming for. I finally chose the opening music, which actually was a big sticking point for me, so um uh so that should be out on uh January 1st and that'll be on like Apple Podcasts and Spotify or wherever else you find [ __ ] — That's awesome. That is awesome. I'm excited to hear that. I'm sure I'll be doing those with you. And uh are you planning on doing video at some point? — Yeah, at some point I will, but I'm going to start off it's going to be audio and then we'll I'll add in some video at some point on YouTube. — Nice. Awesome. I think we've kind of run through all the questions. Uh we've uh given you a couple of picks to uh consider and I don't see anything that we've missed here, so we may end up doing one do you want to do one more this year or you want to — Yeah, we'll do one in a few weeks like before the end of the year maybe an recap. — We'll do We'll look for maybe the last Wednesday uh uh that we can do and uh who knows maybe I'll have a cocktail or something while we're doing it. — That could be fun. Um by the way I closed that with that ding ding you heard earlier I was closing the MSTR short at 174. 53 so if anyone was following along with that. Well All right everyone. — everyone. Uh trade prudently. Dips are your buying opportunities. They won't last long when you have them. Be ready to strike and when you don't have them then you've got to trade very cautiously. I'm selling puts on strong stocks below technical support that I don't mind taking assignment on. I'm selling some bullish put spreads but I'm doing the bullish put spreads more on the those market declines than I am uh when the market's kind of floating higher like it is right now. So trade well. We will see you in a couple of weeks. Thanks Harry. — Thanks Pete. — I know.