# Did The Tech Bubble Just Pop?

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** CiovaccoCapital
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2840Op6-NI
- **Дата:** 06.06.2026
- **Длительность:** 36:08
- **Просмотры:** 20,511

## Описание

Did The Tech Bubble Just Pop?

Technology and AI-related stocks have been among the strongest areas of the market, but recent headlines and sharp moves have raised an important question: is this healthy leadership, or the start of another tech bubble unwind?

In this week’s video, we compare today’s evidence to prior market environments, including the 2000 tech peak, while reviewing relative strength, long-term bases, moving-average structures, defensive-sector comparisons, and Nasdaq 100 trends.

Rather than relying on opinions or scary headlines, we walk through the charts step by step and ask a simple question: what does the current weight of the evidence say about risk, leadership, and the sustainability of the move?

Topics covered include:

AI & technology relative to the equal-weight S&P 500
Technology versus defensive sectors
Tech leadership and momentum signals
Nasdaq 100 long-term trend structure
Nasdaq 100 versus the S&P 500
Similarities and differences versus the 2000 bubble period
How to think about risk management without abandoning evidence-based discipline

Markets can change quickly, but the charts can help us separate normal volatility from more meaningful deterioration. This week’s video focuses on that distinction.

## Содержание

### [0:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2840Op6-NI) Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)

In this week's video, we'll review the latest charts and data to help us answer the question, is the tech bubble about to pop? This is a daily ratio chart dated after the close on Friday, June 5th, 2026, after the ugly session. This is AIQ relative to RSP. AI and tech relative to the equal weight S& P 500. Lower left-hand corner of your screen, it's 2019. This is 2025 here. We'll walk forward into 2026. You can see the ratio came up into this region here in 2020. It acted as resistance 1 2 3 times. Came back up, couldn't even make it back to that level here in 2024 and here, and then stalled in that general vicinity again in 2025. If we fast forward to the present day, again, the close, June 5th, 2026, you can see we had a bullish breakout. This looks like a retest, and then we went on to make a higher high. We've got moving averages spanning between the 20-day and the 250-day in black. For the most part, we look like we're about to move back to a full-bore bullish look. This is a tight cluster look. Trends are converging on multiple time frames, from the 20 all the way out to the 250-day, and in a very important area. Been basing in here for roughly 6 years. We have the breakout, the retest, and now the trends are turning up. That's very favorable. As you can see, the ratio basically went straight up. Not surprising that we're in giveback mode. Basically too early to tell what this move means yet. We have numerous areas of potential support down here. We have the 50-day moving average here in red all the way out to the 250-day here. Then we have this region here what once acted as resistance may now act as support. The last thing the ratio did was make a new high. Hasn't made a significant lower low since this low here when the S& P 500 bottomed in Q4 of 2022. One of the reasons why we're using RSP in this example rather than SPY is because RSP has a much lower waiting to tech. Roughly 21% SPY's up around 39%. Also relevant, SPY has approximately a 35% exposure to the Magnificent Seven. RSP only 1. 5%. So this helps us understand the probability of a massive rotation away from AI and tech and toward the other sectors in the S& P 500. This is still a favorable looking chart when we look out, let's say, several weeks or several months. And as long as this breakout holds, it's also favorable looking out years. The longer a market moves sideways, the bigger the move you can expect to get when you either get a bullish breakout or bearish breakdown. How about just a general bear market, a deflationary bear market, something similar to the financial crisis? This is IEF relative to SPY, and this is what economic traditional deflationary economic fear looks like. You can see market participants strongly preferred the safety of IEF 7 Treasuries, relative to stocks or SPY. So, in the present day, if we saw something similar to this, we would be concerned. We don't really have that as of the close on June 5th, 2026. Once again, this is IEF relative to SPY. The last thing this ratio did was make a new low. It was also rejected at these AVWAP lines earlier in 2026. How about concerns relative to inflation? This is the line here that helped us earlier in the year. We really don't have anything on this chart that's changed. You can see in January of 2022, we pierced the black and purple line. We came up to the same black and purple line and thus far it's acted as resistance and the ratio was rejected. If we moved into this white space here, we'd have to reassess those probabilities. But right now, this looks like a market that's saying, "Yes, inflation is a concern, but it's not a show stopper. " And that aligns with this tweet in the lower

### [5:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2840Op6-NI&t=300s) Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)

left-hand corner of your screen. So, how does June 5th, 2026 compare to the peaking process before the inflation-induced bear market in 2022? Now, we're looking at AIQ, AI in tech relative to XLP defensive consumer staples. This is where the S& P 500 peaked here on January 3rd, 2022. You can see the ratio had made a discernible lower high in Q4 of calendar year 2021, and then rolled over in Q4 below the moving average cluster. You can see the 20-day moving average moved from the top of the cluster to the bottom of the cluster. All of that happened before the S& P 500 peaked. And we have the tight cluster in here. This is a bearish convergence. And this is what happened next. The ratio fell for approximately a year. Do we have anything like that on June 5th, 2026? We do not. We have a bullish convergence of the same moving averages on the same ratio, AIQ relative to XLP. And instead of making a discernible lower high, we just made a discernible higher high. It's also noteworthy that all of this is occurring above a long-term base. Resistance in 2021, again in 2025. This doesn't look like a bubble. This is AIQ, artificial intelligence in tech, relative to defensive staples. The ratio has been going sideways. 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, came back to the exact same level in 2026. This same spot as this in 2021. Bullish breakout, retest exactly where you would expect to retest what once acted as resistance. resistance may now act as support. So, as long as this bullish breakout holds and the ratio holds above the moving averages, we'll err on the side of being patient. It's not a prediction in any shape, form, or fashion. This is the chart in front of us on June 5th, 2026. Similar situation here. Does this look like a massive bubble in the triple Qs? It does not. If we drew a line from this peak in 2020, like this, to this low in 2026, it's not a very steep slope. It doesn't look anything like the slope from 1998 to 2000 on a ratio like this. Similar situation here. Why do you make a discernable lower high here? There's a fundamental reason. I'm sure somebody out there knows what it is. When market participants are concerned about inflation, growth stocks, a lot of time with growth stocks or tech stocks, you're paying for future earnings. If you're expecting the Fed to raise rates as they did in 2022, and you're using a discounted cash flow model to figure out what earnings in the future are worth today, that's not great for QQQ relative to RSP. Hence, the lower high and then the sell-off in 2022. This is January of 2023. We drop below the moving average cluster in 2021, make a discernable lower high, and then drop below it again just as the S& P 500 is peaking. And look at the slope of the black 250-day moving average in here. Look at all of these slopes rolling over in Q1 of 2022 as market participants are concerned about higher rates and a higher rates in a discounted cash flow, hence valuation concerns about QQQ relative to RSP. 2026, we really don't have any of that. We just made a discernable higher high in contrast to the discernable lower high. Blue, the fastest moving average, just moved from the bottom to the top. Blue, the fastest moving average, moves from the top to the bottom in January of 2022. And once again, a lot of sideways movement in here. And this looks like a bullish breakout consolidation above the prior area of resistance. What once acted as resistance may now act as support. Here's another breakout out of a W and then a retest of that breakout in a higher high and a tight cluster on the moving averages. Now, if this ratio moves into this white space here, especially if it makes a lower low here, then concerns would increase.

### [10:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2840Op6-NI&t=600s) Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00)

That's not what we have right now, so we'll see what happens. One concern would be the sharp sell-off on Friday. So, we want to head into the next week with an open mind. Similar situation here, but you can see XLK relative to RSP has been stronger. If we draw a line from this high in 2020 or this high in 2021, the slope would be much steeper than the slope on this chart. But, it's a similar message. The analysis on the prior chart concerning in 2021, concerning in 2022, slopes rolling over in 2022. We don't really have any of that today. We have a very tight cluster and they're turning up above a base here. This is a 2-year base that we broke out of and we went on to print a higher high. We also had that discernable lower high in Q4 of 2021 relative to this high in the ratio in 2020. And all of that we could see measure and put in a model before the S& P peaked on January 3rd, 2022. Tight cluster rolling over in a bearish manner, tight cluster turning up in a bullish manner. We use these charts for numerous things. They can help us assess bull-bear probabilities. They can also help us assess relative strength, market leadership. Those are two different questions. So, if leadership is going to flip from tech and growth stocks to the other sectors in the S& P 500, then we would expect this breakout to fail miserably, which would mean that this ratio would get down into this white space here. If that happens, we don't panic, but the longer we stay in this region, the more meaningful it would become. This is not a discernable or important lower low relative to this low. This is a higher high relative to this high, and high. This is an uptrend from this low here in early 2023. And yes, tech and growth has done quite well, but you have to take that into the context here where tech and growth were performing quite poorly for a long period of time from this peak on a relative basis in 2020 to this low in 2023. So, when here all this is, it's consolidation. Market participants can't decide if they'd prefer to own growth or RSP in this window from 2020, arguably all the way out to 2026. Right now, it's favoring growth, but we're still pretty close to this base here, so we'll see what happens. Trade the chart in front of us. Right now, it's favoring SPYG over RSP. On the present day, market participants don't seem to be concerned about a traditional deflationary bear market. We had deflationary bear markets when the dot-com bubble burst, and we had a deflationary bear market during the great financial crisis. Nor do we have anything on the chart in front of us that says inflation is expected to be a showstopper for We also have a several charts that lean bullish and tell us we should keep an open mind about much better than expected long-term outcomes. We just broke out of a 6-year base on this chart. Is there any other reason to keep an open mind about better than expected long-term outcomes? Yes, something that just happened that we could see measure and put in a model on June 5th, 2026. Something similar has happened in the past. Forward returns for the S& P 500 1 year later, every single case, all 11 historical cases, the market was higher a year later. So, that would be looking out to June 5th of 2027, hypothetically. The average gain 16. 9%, the median gain of 15. 2%. Average drawdown muted 3. 7%, max drawdown 9. 3. And that 9. 3 looks familiar, doesn't it? It's very, very similar to the median drawdown historically in similar legs for the last two secular bull markets. Drawdowns are 100% normal and to be expected. So, this too says try to be patient. Tweet from Fidelity here. But for now, valuations are supported by the fundamentals of margins and credit spreads. So, let's enjoy the ride while

### [15:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2840Op6-NI&t=900s) Segment 4 (15:00 - 20:00)

we can. This is earlier today on June 5th. Since 1950, a May rally of more than 5% in the S& P like this year has been followed by gains over the next year every single time averaging an additional gain of 21% over the next year. Something else that we could see measure and put in a model back near the end of May on May 26th looking forward walking forward from May late May. Historically average 6-month return additional gain 9. 9% 9-month return a hair over 11% historically. Additional gain over the next 12 months the average additional gain 15. 6%. Tweet upper left-hand corner of your screen AAII American Association of individual investor surveys show this bull run is hated. We're talking about sentiment. Typically sentiment is overly optimistic near major highs. It's not what we have today. We have skepticism climbing the wall of worry. Tweet from our buddy JC. Momentum thrust tend to come near the beginning of big cycles not the end. Referring to XLK. Historically the market tends to shake off. When we look at average and median outcomes conflicts aka wars. This tweet right here backed up by data. Bonds are discounting persistent but not hotter inflation. It's exactly what we're talking about on this chart. There's a difference between inflation being a concern and an issue and a showstopper for stocks. Tweet from Dan Niles. He does a lot of tech investing. In summary I remain bullish over the longer term given S& P earnings are expected to increase 25% this year. I believe oil prices will come down and the new Fed chair is likely to push back against calls to raise rates. June 3rd the S& P 500's 9-day winning streak is over but the bigger story is the momentum underneath it. Historically, a handful of cases where something similar has happened. One month later, 92% of the cases, the market was higher, average gain just over 4%. 12 months later, 83% of the historical cases higher, median gain over 20%. That would be the additional gain walking forward from June of 2026. Simply telling us to keep an open mind about better than expected outcomes. Something else that just happened that has nothing to do with fear of loss or an opinion about what's going on fundamentally or politically. Tech leadership is ripping. This signal just triggered twice, meaning we had it trigger twice recently. The triple Qs, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, higher 6 to 9 months later every single time historically. If we blow this up over here, he uses triple Q performance, forward performance, additional gains 12 months later, the average additional gain 38. 3%. The median additional gain 34. 3%. 91% of the cases, 11 cases, the market was higher a year later. Now, think about that. Those are large gains, 38%, 34%. That sounds a lot like what happens when you break out of a long-term base successfully. June 2nd, S& P up 9 days in a row and 9 weeks in a row. Typically, walking forward, look at all the green in this table, good things tend to happen. Regarding tech valuations, dollar sign NDX is the Nasdaq 100. This isn't 1999, it's not even 2021 yet. The NASDAQ 100 is trading at 24. 7 forward earnings right at its five-year average. This tweet These are historical returns. Look at all of the green, not much red. One year later, two years later. May 29th, incredible price action from the S& P 500 this quarter. It's a small sample size, but in all cases the S& P 500 gained at least 15% for the rest of the year. Hypothetically, that could put the S& P 500 at 8700 by year-end. On day 100 of 2026, the S& P 500 was up 9. 9%. 22 other times it was up greater than 9%

### [20:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2840Op6-NI&t=1200s) Segment 5 (20:00 - 25:00)

on the 100th day, the rest of the year was higher 86. 4% of the time, gained an additional 8. 1% on average. Lot of green in this table, not a lot of red. Similar concept, something that just happened. The return for the rest of the year, S& P 500 average additional gain 10. 2, median 11. 4, 87. 5% of the cases were higher. There's a ton of green in the table, just a little bit of red. June 4th, the reversal in the NASDAQ two weeks later, 90% of the time the NASDAQ was higher, average gain over the next two weeks 2. 3%. Historically, what typically follows an April-May stock market surge? Rest of the year, next seven months, median gain 16. 5%. That would be an additional gain. Historically, 88% of the cases were higher over the next seven months. 9 months later, the meeting gain was 20. 7% again 88% of the cases higher. Once again, a lot of black, not a lot of red in this table. These are signals that go back to 1933. Now, if you were taking a technical analysis test, let's say you were taking an essay test, it'd probably be easy to say that this is a very favorable-looking chart, but it is extended in the short run, so it's not particularly shocking that we had a really bad day on Friday. Haven't even retraced to the 38. 2% of the current rally. This would be the 50% level here. This is the 61. 8% and that comes in right near this peak here and right around where the cloud is, all areas of potential support. This is XLK, the S& P 500's tech sector relative to SPY. Blue, the fastest moving average is on top. Black, the slowest the bottom. That's the 250-day moving average. This would be the 20-day. That's almost textbook full board bullish look with a very nice tight cluster and we covered this tight cluster weeks ago. Can't remember if we tweeted this chart in our X feed or whether or not we covered it in the video. Regardless, it's in the public domain somewhere and it was back here and we said this was a very favorable setup. We'll see what happens. We're not making any predictions at all. If it comes back toward the rising and bullish green cloud on the daily chart. Similar situation. Is everybody running away from tech and going to the other sectors in the S& P, RSP, the equally weighted S& P 500? No. This looks like a big giveback after a massive move. This look here very similar to this look down here. Here's the peaking process for the NASDAQ 100 when the dot-com bubble burst. We've got the 30, 40, and 50-week moving averages here. Then we have the 125, the 150, the 200, and the 225 all back here. Notice the white space, how strong the trend was between those moving average clusters, between here and here, all this white space. It lasts for 5 years. We maybe have 3 years of white space. And look at the slope of this line relative to this blow-off top slope here. And you can see in the year 2000, the 30, 40, and 50-week moving averages rolled over hard, and price dropped below them. We don't have anything like that as of the close on June 5th, 2026. And if we look at that same moving average cluster, the 30, 40, and 50-week moving average, notice how that cluster never touches the other cluster down here for 9 years. So, we move away from it here in 1991. We do not touch it here. We don't touch it again until after the bubble pops. We don't have anything like that in the present day. We just touched it back here in 2023. So, using that metric, you could say we're extended for 3 years. Here, we were extended for 9 years. And here, we just broke out of a base. This is a base here. This is the peak in late 2021. We break out of it here recently in 2023.

### [25:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2840Op6-NI&t=1500s) Segment 6 (25:00 - 30:00)

2023. We don't have anything like that in here. There is no base. We basically go straight up from 1995 to this peak in the year 2000. This, and this, and all of this really doesn't look anything like this. A rising cloud, forward cloud, that's bullish. We got a thick green cloud below price looking at the Nasdaq weekly cloud in isolation. This is a strong area of possible support. We're still batting five for five. Blue is above red, price is above red. The green span is above price. The cloud is green and price is above the cloud. That looks a lot different from Q1 of 2022 in the early stages of the bear market. This look right here is January of 2022. If the present day morphs into something more like this, concerns would increase. Got nine months of consolidation in here from here to here, which is why this green cloud is so thick. And when we look at this chart, it's important to keep in mind on our time frame. This is the current trend that we're concerned about. So, let's assume that we're talking about the positions we established at this low in 2025 and their cost basis. Concepts are identical to what we talked about earlier this year. So, let's assume that this low here was the low in 2025. This is the tariff low. What are we trying to accomplish? If this is the tariff low and this is the present day and we're concerned about a drawdown, our goal in the context of a secular bull market is not to minimize this drawdown. Our goal is not to try to maximize our balance at the low. Our goal is to look at the current drawdown and any drawdown within the context of a secular bull in the context of our cost basis in the rearview mirror, and our goal is to navigate from this low to the end of the secular bull. This is where we want to try to maximize our balance. It's not here. Thus, if our thinking is inside the orange box, it can be extremely nerve-racking. But if we step out to a longer-term time frame and look at the longer-term trends, it gets much easier psychologically to deal with the orange box. So, if the crowd is right 80% of the time, but at the same time we have to go against the crowd, how does that work? What's going against the crowd here? is basically not going with the crowd during these countertrend moves. In the context of a long-term trend, the crowd and the media, the crowd and the media is going to be focused on the orange box. So, it's during the countertrend moves within the context of an uptrend that we want to act like contrarians, but at the same time we're participating in those crowded trades. What we're trying to do differently is hold them for a long period of time allowing the miracle of compounding to act in our favor. Is there anything concerning about this week? I think the sharp move here. It's too early to tell, but sharp moves usually get our attention. There's nothing on this chart yet that's overly concerning other than knowing when you see something like this, we should pay closer attention. This is an area of potential strong resistance. The cloud never flipped to green and it's still downward sloping. Implying that in the future, the resistance is going to be at lower levels, which would imply that the downtrend would continue. Right now, the weekly cloud Dow relative to the Nasdaq is batting 0 for 5. That's the chart in front of us. We're not making any assumptions about what it's going to look like next week. Very, very difficult to talk about bubbles when you compare the Nasdaq 100 relative to the S& P 500 and there was no clear winner for over 5 years. We're just now breaking out of the long-term consolidation box. And when we look at this here, the longer you go sideways, the bigger the move you can expect to get. And this additional gain historically

### [30:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2840Op6-NI&t=1800s) Segment 7 (30:00 - 35:00)

for QQQ with an eye-popping 38. 3% average additional gain, it fits right in. We've been moving sideways and now we have a bullish breakout and we're holding it. As long as we hold above upward sloping 200-day moving average, which has been turning up, and as long as we hold above this base and this base here, we'll err on the side of being patient. Nasdaq 100 relative to the S& P 500, we've covered this. Look at this ratio here. This is what a bubble looks like. It goes straight up from this low in 1998 to this peak here. This is a blow-off top. Does this look similar here? Does this move here look similar to this move here? It doesn't look anything like that move. In fact, it looks like a ratio that outperformed and then significantly underperformed and then took a long time to get back to the same level, had a bullish breakout, retested it, and now is finally potentially trying to move away from the consolidation box, all of it occurring above an upward-sloping 200-day. All of this consolidation occurring above what once acted as resistance, the peak in the year 2000. And when you look at it in this context, no clear winner here for 5 years. Look at this move from 1991 in the same NDX, Nasdaq 100 relative to the S& P 500, to the peak in the year 2000. Very, very difficult to say that this move from point A to point B looks like B. And once again, if we move sideways in here, this is 2020. Look how many times we can hit price. If we move sideways in here, we hit price twice. Similar situation here, the triple Qs just broke out of a 5-year base, left shoulder, head, right shoulder relative to SPY. Once again, above an upward-sloping 200-day moving average. Longer above, the more relevant it becomes. It would also be relevant if the breakout fails and we move into this white space. Are market participants running away from SPY and tech and moving to defensive staples as they did in June of 2007. The S& P 500 didn't peak until October of 2007. And notice this ratio crossed above the long-term moving average, the 50-month moving average as the S& P was peaking. We don't have anything like that in the present day. In fact, we have the same moving average that's starting to roll over. But the only argument we can make here is we are pretty far away. So, if we get some mean reversion, that would be relevant. But the moral of the story is this made a new low here in 2026 and this doesn't look anything like this with the ratio above and the moving average turning up. And RSP relative to XLK on a monthly chart, it's in a downtrend batting over five. June 5th, 2026. RSP, the equal weight S& P 500 relative to MAGS, it's the Magnificent Seven ETF. That green cloud on the weekly chart just flipped back red. So, we'll keep an open mind about what's happening here, but right now this looks like a countertrend move within the context of a downtrend. Having said that, couldn't even make it back to the cloud here, made it back here, closed in it here, and we're back in it again. That's a waning downtrend. But this chart has a lot of work to do. And this is just a weekly chart. It's not a monthly chart. It doesn't look like a deflationary bear market. Doesn't look like an inflationary defensive positions are attracting attention. And we have numerous signals that were fired that tell us to keep an open mind about better than expected outcomes. And as always, all of the commentary in this week's video is based on the chart in front of us. If the upper right-hand corner of our screen starts to morph into something more like this, then we will have to reassess the bull-bear probabilities. And we all know the only way that we can do that effectively is if we had it in next week and every week with that flexible

### [35:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2840Op6-NI&t=2100s) Segment 8 (35:00 - 36:00)

flexible, unbiased, and open mind. The material in this video has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any viewer. This video is presented solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, nor should any of its content be taken as investment advice. Any opinions expressed in this video are subject to change without notice, and Shavaco Capital Management LLC or CCM is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. CCM and its respective officers and associates or clients may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. CCM accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. We recommend that you consult with a licensed and qualified professional before making any investment decision.

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*Источник: https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/53099*