# Are Stocks Tired After Eight Straight Weeks Of Gains?

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** CiovaccoCapital
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvAYoKSl_-4
- **Дата:** 23.05.2026
- **Длительность:** 24:32
- **Просмотры:** 13,285
- **Источник:** https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/53101

## Описание

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE HISTORICAL CASES?

After a powerful eight-week advance in the S&P 500, investors are asking a logical question: has the market come too far, too fast?

This week’s video studies what history says after similar winning streaks, while also reviewing the present-day evidence from stocks, bonds, credit markets, sector leadership, and secular trend tools.

We will compare the current setup to prior market environments, including cases where strength continued and cases where risk started to rise. The goal is not to predict the next move, but to better understand whether recent gains look like exhaustion, healthy momentum, or part of a broader trend.

Topics covered include:

The historical message from rare 8-week S&P 500 winning streaks
What the market’s long-term trend structure is saying today
Technology leadership vs. the S&P 500
AI-related relative strength
Energy vs. technology leadership
Credit markets and investment-grade bonds vs. Treasuries
Treasury bond behav

## Транскрипт

### Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00) []

In this week's video, we'll review the latest charts and data to help us answer the question, are stocks tired after eight straight weeks of gains? You may remember in the relatively early stages of the Iran conflict, in the March 20th and March 28th videos, we used numerous charts, including the one shown on your screen. This is West Texas Intermediate Crude relative to the S& P 500 to help us determine, or more appropriately establish, prudent bull-bear guideposts. The colored lines on your screen are anchored weighted average price lines, and they're tied to significant highs and lows in the rearview mirror. Bull-bear turning points in many cases. And since we've been in a long-term bull market since 2013, left side of your screen here, meaning this entire run on your screen is for the most part bullish with the exception of this period right here, the 2022 inflation-induced bear market. And you can see this looks different. It's a sustained break above the colored lines. When the correction ended in 2023, when the S& P 500 bottomed in Q4, after correcting approximately 10%, it came back to the upper bound of those lines. So, we knew in mid to late March that this was an important bull-bear region. As you can see, we went right up in to the cluster of the colored lines here, and have since moved in a favorable and bullish direction. You can make an argument that this look right in here is similar to the end of the correction in 2023, and you can also make an argument that the look in the rearview mirror here does not look as bad as January of 2022. Another ratio that was helpful during the recent drawdown was consumer staples XLP relative to SPY. You can see 2026 over here concerns would have increased if the look on the right side of your screen started to morph into something like this fierce spike here in November of the year 2000 or this fierce spike here started in November of 2007. Chart on your screen is dated Friday, May 22nd at 3:58 p. m. Eastern. 2 minutes before the close and thus far the right side of your screen still says risk on. The XLK SPY ratio was also helpful. Tech was underperforming from this peak here in Q4 of 2025 but we never violated any of these regions that said the uptrend had flipped to a downtrend. Buyers stepped in on a relative basis here near a logical level and then we went on to print a higher high. This ratio has been consolidating for quite some time so it's possible that there's additional outperformance in the weeks and months ahead for XLK relative to SPY. It's another ratio that we used during the drawdown during the energy scare, during the war and the conflict with Iran. This is XLE energy relative to XLK. You can see right here at this blue line this is where the S& P 500 and the Nasdaq are starting to bottom at the end of the 2022 bear market. You can see previously this region here acted as resistance. Again, we came back to that downward sloping blue line in 2022. So we knew that this was a good guidepost in here during the risk off event that we recently experienced and thus far, the same area that has acted as resistance in the past has thus far done the same. We're below these colored lines, the longer we stay there, the more relevant it becomes. It's not a prediction in an A-shape form or fashion, but so far, so good. Similar concepts here. This is XLE relative to SPY. We had numerous reference points 2013 where the secular bull starts, 2014 end of the bear market in 2022. We came back up into that area and thus far have remained below the downward sloping trend line. The longer below, the more relevant it becomes. The chart of the Nasdaq Technical Index has also been helpful. This is the monthly version. Present day right side of your screen here, you can see we looked a lot more constructive during the recent drawdown than we did in this period here. Really

### Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00) [5:00]

didn't look anything like the peaking process as the dot-com bubble was bursting in this region here, nor the early stages of the financial crisis when the S& P 500 peaked in October of 2007. Didn't find a bottom until March of 2009. The last thing the Nasdaq Technical Index did was make a new high. The markets moved a long way. The S& P 500 has posted positive results for eight weeks in a row. This look here tells us it's possible that there might be some giveback coming soon. This isn't anything alarming here and it wouldn't be surprising if in the days or weeks we had some give back. That's also not a prediction in any shape, form, or fashion, but we'd like to see this go on and print a new high. The NASDAQ has had an amazing run in recent weeks. If it decides to backtrack at some point, we have somewhat of an indecisive look here, although we did close above last week's close here. If we backtrack, the good news would be we could have some substantial give back, and we would still have numerous areas of possible support below price. One of the healthiest things that we could see would be for the Dow and the equal-weight S& P 500 to play catch-up and maybe outperform for a few weeks in an environment where tech and growth maybe take a backseat on a relative basis. That would be healthy broadening out of the current rally. So, it's a good sign that we have this tight clustered look here with the moving averages sloping upward on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We're hovering right around a new all-time high. I think it's probably fair to say relative to these prior breakout attempts here, this is the most convincing look that we've had going all the way back to this point here in early 2024. This resistance, resistance kind of an indecisive region here. All of that tells us if we do backtrack, we have numerous areas of possible support below price. You can see the 200-day moving average is trying to turn back up in a constructive manner. This is the NASDAQ 100 relative to the S& P 500. If we move out to a weekly time frame, you can see this region here of consolidation. We're still above it and as we always say, the longer above, the more relevant it becomes. We also have a favorable turning up look on the red 200-week moving average. This is the NYSE advanced decline volume contrast the look of price and the moving averages in here as the dot-com bubble is bursting with what we have on Friday, May 22nd, 2026 after the close. It's extremely important for us to maintain realistic expectations about how markets operate in the real world. We've had a massive move from this low here in March to this peak here and you can see momentum seems to be slowing a little bit in here. Nothing alarming. All of this is taking place above an upward sloping 20-day moving average telling us this could still go either way. We could move in this direction, but if the market wants to move in this direction, once again, there's numerous reference points below including a gap right here that we could potentially fill around 7,300. Moral of story, if we backtrack, emphasis being on if, our goal would be to be patient and see what happens in this region here. There's nothing on this screen here that says anything other than uptrend. This is a chart that you can find on our X feed. This is a rare look here on the weekly cloud chart for the S& P 500 index. We went back and we looked at every week dating back to 1950. It's hard to find something that looks like this and there's no question relative to the historical precedent. It leans bullish and forget this kiss look here where the blue span and the red span are on top of each other, and they've been rising for several weeks. This is your slowing momentum in here. Forget all that. We had sideways movement and a bullish breakout. All of this occurred above an upward sloping cloud here, and the cloud started to rise again. So, the weekly trend has been constructive the entire time for the most part with the exception of this

### Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00) [10:00]

indecisive window in here, but it didn't last very long. So, this would be a short stay look, and now we're trying to reestablish the bullish look. You can pause your video player here. This weekly chart, which has the 50-week all the way out to the 110-week at the moment, says strong bullish trend. If we zoom in a little bit, you can see here we come back and tag the moving average cluster. You can see the white space start just to appear again here as we rally. Similar situation here. We came down, tighter cluster here, and this white space here tells us that, if anything, this trend seems to be getting stronger rather than weaker. And this pullback here in 2026 ended up being stronger relative to the pullback in 2025 that brought us all the way back to the upward sloping 110-week moving average. You can see the recent drawdown of 2026 really didn't get anywhere near that. So, when we look at a chart like this, we can still keep a long-term focus. It still says secular bull market, but we have to understand after the market's gone up 8 weeks in a row, it can't go up every week. We all know that. But we don't have anything in hand at the moment that says the market can't be higher in a year, 18 months, 24 months. And unless that changes, we'll continue to try to take a longer-term focus. And common sense tells us if the market's gone up eight weeks in a row, good things are probably happening, but all good things must come to an end. So, if we look at the historical cases where the S& P had an eight-week winning streak, which is what we just nailed down as of the close on May 22nd. So, we look out to a year here. This is 12 months. Notice there's a lot of red in this table here, telling us what we already know. When markets move rapidly from point A to point B, eventually there's going to be some giveback. And that's good news cuz it helps us with the realistic expectations. But a strong trend typically tends to lead to higher highs. If we look at all of the cases, what happened 12 months later? The average additional gain over the next year was basically 10% in the S& P 500, 9. 94. The median gain was a little bit better, 11. 54. And if you look at these dates here and only look at the eight-week winning streaks that occurred within the context of a secular bull, these numbers look a little better. They're similar, but a little better. Telling us to keep an open mind about better than expected long-term outcomes while maintaining realistic expectations about intermediate-term outcomes. Source of the study, here. You can find them on X. And the current eight-week winning streak is even more rare in that the total gain during the eight-week period was over 10%. Similar outcomes in these events a year later, the S& P 500 was higher roughly 89% of the time. It's pretty good. The average gain, additional gain after the 8 weeks, 12. 34%. The median gain 1 year later, the median additional gain, 13. 16%. Simply telling us to keep an open mind about a wide range of outcomes, including much better than expected outcomes despite eight consecutive weeks of gains. And we won't assume anything. So, if the chart on your screen starts to morph into something more like Q4 of the year 2000, then concerns would increase. And all of this may happen very, very soon. It just hasn't happened yet. The long-term chart on May 22nd still says secular bull. Momentum down here making a stand in a healthy manner at the zero line with a bullish cross of black over red. You can make an argument it's similar to the end of the correction in 2023, something that we discussed in a previous chart earlier in this video. Monthly cloud upper right-hand corner of your screen really doesn't share anything with the peaking process in the year 2000 nor Q1 of 2008. This is that sideways period of secular

### Segment 4 (15:00 - 20:00) [15:00]

stagnation. This is a 10-year window from 1969 to 1979. With monthly Bollinger bands, you can see if we use the same Bollinger bands on the same monthly chart and look at it as of the close on May 22nd, 2026, this looks like an uptrend. This is a constructive look. This looks like a rally that's trying to broaden out. This chart in the short run of the equal weight S& P 500 looks a little bit stronger than the capitalization weighted index. And that's a good thing. If the rally's going to continue, it's good to see leadership have ebbs and flows. Primary trend, secondary trends. The equally weighted S& P 500 on May 22nd above the 20-day moving average in blue, all the way out to the 250-day, the upward sloping in black. The daily chart of West Texas Intermediate Crude also has a constructive look. This was the spike in energy fear intra session on March 9th. You can see we have not exceeded that high. Crude oil appears to be losing momentum. We know tech and AI have been long-term leaders. This is a constructive monthly look AIQ in the ETF world relative to SPY. This is an area here of potential resistance. You can see price and the green span are both out into the white space, which is a good sign. AIQ relative to SPY betting five for five on the monthly cloud. This is also really constructive here. This is the period of consolidation in here. This is an important point right here, reference point. This is where the inflation acceleration to the downside begins. And you can see that acted as resistance here. Been stalled in that area, and what we just did is we came back to that area, above it, held, and then reversed sharply and made a higher high with a constructive look. The 20-day moving average in blue all the way out to the 250-day in black. This looks a lot closer to a full board bullish look and really doesn't look anything like this rollover process that led into Look how long this is ugly looking before the S& P 500 peaked right here on January 3rd of 2020 two. Have to keep an eye on interest rates. Thus far, this giveback here is still hanging in there near the green cloud. If this starts to morph into something more like this over here, concerns would increase. If you have questions about the potential for a bubble in tech, you can go back and watch the May 1st video by Googling the title on your screen. It's posted on YouTube. You can also watch the May 8th video and last week's video. Our mutual fund prices haven't posted yet, but this is the chart that we covered in last week's video, tech relative to the S& P 500. Here are the symbols for the mutual funds. This is the look of the chart as of the close on Thursday, May 21st, 2026. If you want to know what that means from a historical perspective, go back and watch last week's video. Unlike the markets, tech on a relative basis has moved a long way. Some healthy underperformance in the days and weeks, maybe even months ahead, is probably not necessarily a bad thing. We'd like to see RSP and other sectors start to participate a little more fully. Every trend, even leadership trends, have countertrend moves. This is a leadership trend that began when the S& P 500 and Nasdaq bottomed in late 2022 here. Notice, it makes a series of higher highs and higher lows. It has give backs followed by higher highs, implying the ratio of tech to the S& P 500 at some point in the future is going to have a countertrend move even if the long-term uptrend remains in place. Realistic expectations about how markets operate in the real world. The same two mutual funds that we covered last week, tech versus the S& P 500, just lets you see what it looks like as of the close on Thursday, May 21st. This is a look of the monthly cloud, same mutual funds, Thursday, May 21st. This is the look of the quarterly cloud

### Segment 5 (20:00 - 24:00) [20:00]

Thursday, May 21st. This is IYW tech relative to VOO. It's a monthly cloud. You can see we had a tough time exceeding this relative high here from 2021. Now we're convincingly above that level. The lagging span and price are into white space. IYW tech, high correlation to XLK, batting five for five relative to VOO. As we've said numerous times in these weekly videos, there's a difference between inflation being a relevant topic and inflation being a showstopper for stocks. This is investment [snorts] grade corporate bonds, LQD, relative to 7 to 10-year Treasuries, IEF. It's a ratio of ETFs. This is an inflation concern that also has a recessionary component to it. Market participants are concerned about increasing odds of a recession and maybe hit to corporate earnings and thus in this window they prefer IEF 7 to 10 year Treasuries relative to riskier and higher yielding LQD investment grade corporate bonds. This is a risk off look here in January of 2022 when that ratio crosses a flattening out 250-day moving average in black. We're still indecisive over here, but we look a lot better. Right now the ratio is above a rising 20-day moving average. That's on the top of the MA stack. Near the bottom or on the bottom is the black 250-day. Contrast that with the look here when inflation is a major concern. Eventually the 20-day moves from the top of the stack to the bottom of the stack in early February 2022 and eventually the 250-days on the top of the stack prices below the slopes are rolling over. This looks like a constructive setup. Still need to break out here, but at the moment this is telling us most likely that this is an inflation scare rather than an inflation showstopper. And as always the commentary on this chart and all the commentary in this week's video is based on the chart and data sets in front of us. If this chart and the other charts shift in a material manner then we have to be willing to reassess those bull bear probabilities. We're always thinking about the probability of good things happening relative to the probability of bad things happening. happening is never zero. That in and of itself helps us with the important concept that we're all familiar with. The only way that we can use all of this effectively, and the only way that we can see objectively that a chart like this is starting to morph into something like this, is that if we head into next week and every week with that flexible, unbiased, and open mind. The material in this video has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any viewer. This video is presented solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, nor should any of its content be taken as investment advice. Any opinions expressed in this video are subject to change without notice, and Shivaco Capital Management LLC or CCM is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. CCM and its respective officers and associates or clients may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. CCM accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. We recommend that you consult with a licensed and qualified professional before making any investment decision.