# History Says The Nasdaq Could Still Tack On Double Digits Over The Next Year

## Метаданные

- **Канал:** CiovaccoCapital
- **YouTube:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gYiNQ2UHII
- **Дата:** 09.05.2026
- **Длительность:** 34:33
- **Просмотры:** 17,377
- **Источник:** https://ekstraktznaniy.ru/video/53103

## Описание

Can the Nasdaq still deliver meaningful gains over the next year, or has the rally already gone too far?

This week’s video looks at a wide range of historical and present-day evidence to help answer that question without relying on opinions, forecasts, or fear-based narratives. We compare today’s Nasdaq setup to prior market periods, examine relative strength, trend structure, overbought conditions, longer-term moving averages, cloud support, and historical cases where strong short-term gains were followed by additional upside.

The key question: are current conditions more consistent with a late-stage bubble peak, or with a strong market that may still have room to run?

As always, the goal is not to predict the future. The goal is to study the evidence, remain flexible, and adapt if the facts begin to change.

Topics covered include:

Nasdaq vs. S&P 500 leadership
How 2026 compares to the dot-com bubble period
Why “overbought” does not automatically mean “weak”
The importance of tre

## Транскрипт

### Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00) []

In this week's video, we'll review the latest charts, data, and studies to help us understand why history says the Nasdaq could still tack on double digits over the next year. We've covered this topic numerous times in the past, but in the current environment, revisiting it probably makes sense. Article this week dated May 8th, but over the past century, a few stocks driving the bulk of returns is the rule, not the exception. We live in a capitalization-weighted world, which means larger companies, logically, drive stock market returns. Chart on your screen is a ratio chart, the Nasdaq 100 index relative to the S& P 500 index. This is 2017, this is the present day, upper right-hand corner of your screen, May 8th, 2026 after the close. So, you can see it is possible we are finally getting a breakout from this long-term consolidation box that goes all the way back to calendar year 2020. This is a low in 2022. This is a high here in 2020. We were basically at the exact same spot in Q1 of 2025, and really, very, very close to this region in here earlier in 2026. Now, having said that this looks like a breakout, you could probably find videos in the past that make similar statements here in 2024, and you can see this turned out to be somewhat of a false breakout. But this looks pretty convincing. There's a lot of white space now between this point and this point, but there's a reason why we have the expression, the longer above, the more meaningful it becomes. If you've been in the markets for a long time and you were asked, "Does this look like a bubble? " The answer is relatively easy. It does not look like a bubble in the Nasdaq 100. That would imply dominance. No one has dominated between the S& P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 going back to this point here in calendar year 2020. And that's in stark contrast to the 5-to-6-year window between 1995 and the peak in the year 2000. This is 1 2 3 4 5 plus years. Same ratio. We can draw a horizontal line and hit price numerous times in this 5-year window. We can do that back here and we can do it here. We can't do it here. When we go backwards here, we hit nothing. So, when the market really starts to move, when you go back to the left, you just hit white space. The longer a market goes sideways or has somewhat of a boxing match, the bigger the move you can expect to get when you get a bullish breakout or a bearish breakdown. Well, here's your bullish breakout in here. It finally succeeds and then you can see we did get the textbook big move. So, this is a breakout attempt over here. We've had breakout attempts before that failed. The longer above the box, the more relevant it becomes. This looks pretty convincing thus far, possibly even a little overdone in the short run. We have to have realistic expectations when charts go vertical like this for short periods. But if we can stay above this blue box here on any pullback or even better above the top of the orange box and the rising 200-week moving average in the next few weeks or months, that would be a good sign. Talking about very long-term trends here. We're not talking about what's going to happen on Monday morning for the first 3 hours of trading or what's going to happen next week or even over 3 weeks. This type of chart helps us with the next 6 to 18 to 24 months. But you can pause your video player and do just this with this chart here and the same chart in the present day. Can also compare and contrast the slope of the 200-week moving average in this window here with the variation in the slope over the past few years including this sideways movement here. And it's also helpful to take this window here and the present day window and put them

### Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00) [5:00]

on the same chart. Can see here for 5 plus years there's no clear winner. I go back 5 years here I get a bunch of white space. There is a clear winner for a long time in this window here. Moral of the story, this over here really doesn't look much like the window between 2020 and the present day. Similar story if we look at ETFs, the triple Qs versus SPY. Going absolutely positively nowhere for several years in here. You can make an argument that this breakout here is similar to the breakout from this box here. Notice the slope of the 200-day moving average, average. You come up, you consolidate, you break out the slope. trying to break out. We'd like to see this slope continue to turn up and run. Moral of the story, the longer you go sideways, the bigger the move you can expect to get. We ran for an additional 18 months here. And keep in mind, just as this chart, remember a few weeks ago, we showed this chart and we said this was a subtle shift in human behavior. Institutions were selling on Thursday and Friday over and over again, and that shifted down here in early April. And we had 1 2 3 4 consecutive closes above this downward sloping trend line. And that's relevant because technical analysis tracks the past, does not predict the future. We have to use our own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders. This is the past activity of some traders. It spoke to the probability of the future activity of other traders. The other traders ended up pushing price higher after the shift in human behavior. This too is a looks different from anything back here over the past several years. This too is a subtle shift. This looks a lot different from anything that we've seen going back to this high in 2020. Again, longer above the box, the more relevant it becomes. So far, so good. We'll cover a handful of charts in this week's video that have been helpful over the past several weeks and months. This is one of them. When things weren't going particularly well for tech, tech's been underperforming or underperformed from October of last year to the recent low in 2026. It's looking like a countertrend move within the context of a long-term leadership trend favoring tech. But it was fair to say that the present day up here really didn't look anything like this. The dot-com bubble was bursting in calendar year 2000. The present day hasn't looked anything like the peaking process in Q4 of 2007 or Q1 of 2008. If this morphs into something more like this or this, concerns would increase. There's another subtle shift on this chart. Look at the blue span kissing the red span, and they're both upward sloping. If you know cloud charts, that tells you could be in the early stages of a new trend. trend. This rally continued after this point here for over a year. It's a good sign that we have the lagging span and price above this consolidation box where price bounced around for approximately 9 months. We came down to the cloud and the area of possible support, a thick cloud, and held right where we were supposed to, right near the cloud. That's similar to holding above the cloud here with the kiss, and making a stand near the cloud and getting the bullish cross. So, this has some characteristics of this and some characteristics of this. In both cases, the rally continued. And notice this look here. Remember when we said the kiss and in slope. Look at the kiss here in the slope. You know when this is? This is January of 2022. Now they're on top of each other, blue on red, and they're rolling over. And the trend continued for basically 9 to 12 more months because the Nasdaq didn't bottom on a closing basis on a daily chart until three trading days

### Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00) [10:00]

before the end of the year. Longer above the box, the more relevant it becomes. This is the Nasdaq Composite in isolation. There's similar concepts. We looked at the more narrow Nasdaq 100. This is the broader Nasdaq Composite relative to the S& P 500. PPO, like MACD, allows us to compare monthly momentum over long periods of time. You can compare this to this. You really can't do that with MACD. It doesn't work well. Notice the momentum blowoff here from the low in 1998 to this point here. We don't have anything like that in the present day. We were recently below zero. Now there's white space between the zero line and PPO. You can make an argument that's somewhat similar to this point here and here. And in both cases, the rally continued. And you could also make an argument that it's similar to this point here. And that's true. You can make that argument. And if it is, that's not necessarily a bad thing because the massive rally that you had in here lasted over a year from this point here. So, we have to keep an open mind about where we are and continue to take it day by day. But if you look at the white space to the left of this ratio, today looks nothing like that. I can move back 26 years and hit price. If I go back 26 years here, I get nothing but air. That's it. This is consolidation. This looks like a blow-off top. Now, let's flip around to the bearish perspective. We know failed breakouts can drop rapidly. It's exactly what happened here. So, we don't want to make any assumptions about the fact that this breakout is going to hold. If it reverses sharply, then we would learn something about increasing bearish probabilities. Day by day with an open mind about a wide range of outcomes. This is another one of the charts that have been very, very helpful in recent weeks. Remember a few weeks ago we had tepid on this chart here, and then we changed it to better? Look at the outperformance in XLK since the breakout. Our argument was the present day was similar to this point here and this point here. Resistance, tech outperforms, resistance in the same general region, tech has been outperforming. Now, the slope of this line tells us to have realistic expectations in the short to intermediate term, but long term, there's still massive potential resistance above the ratio of the Dow relative to the Nasdaq. And notice the kiss look again here with the falling look to it. It's almost the polar opposite to this look over here in January of 2022. And that's relevant because when it was moving in the opposite direction here in 2022, that's when market participants were very concerned about inflation. And inflation moved from a relevant topic to a showstopper for the markets. So, this kiss is rising against the Nasdaq and for the Dow. Almost the polar opposite of what we have in the present day. And just look at the ratio. This is what 2026 looks like on May 8th, 2026. This is what the same ratio looked like in Q1 of 2022. Right here, this is a full bore bullish look in this window here for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, aka the Dow relative to the Nasdaq. Right now, we're very, very close to morphing into, if we don't already have it, cuz blue looks like it's below red on the graph, over five against the Dow and for the Nasdaq. Let's just say right out of the gate, this is anecdotal evidence, but it's interesting. This is rare here. CCI, weekly CCI, look how rapidly we reversed. That's almost like a short stay look with price. We went from below -200 to above 200 in a matter of weeks. That's hard to find. You can make an argument this is somewhat similar, but this is a matter of months. But if you know how to use ADX, it's a trend indicator. When black gets low like this, it's kind of a sleepy trend where there's no

### Segment 4 (15:00 - 20:00) [15:00]

dominant trend. Down here. You can see black has been below green and red, and then green moved to the top of the stack here, and then red dropped below black right there early in 2012. Red just dropped below black. So, you can make an argument that this is similar to this point here. And this helps us cuz we don't want to have unrealistic expectations. It works both ways. You can see the Nasdaq really didn't do a whole lot for several months after that. But, after this setup and after this move, this rally from this point here in 2012 lasts until mid-2015 and then makes another attempt at a new high in Q4 of 2015. So, that's 2012, 2013, 2014, and most of 2015. If there's some committee that can vote on this stuff, saying that RSI is overbought is one of the most misleading terms ever. Overbought implies that something bad is going to happen. We just moved from the blue line to the green line quickly. That too is rare. Let's say we went from the blue line to the green line overbought right here. Well, this is what happened for months. Blue line to the green line, this is what happened for years. Blue line to the green line, we rallied. Blue line to the green line, look how long the rally continued. Blue line didn't make it. Blue line back to the green line, rally lasts for over a year. Blue line back to the green line here, rally lasts for over a year. Simply telling us to keep an open mind about better than expected outcomes when we hear the term overbought. And keep in mind, this analysis is looking out several weeks, several months, and in years in some cases. So, we're not talking about what's going to happen in the next 3 hours, 3 days, or 3 weeks, or even 3 months. We're long-term investors. And in this case, there was a short-term pullback here. So, we have to have realistic expectations about how markets operate in the real world. Here's another chart that we've been using for several weeks now, that's very, very helpful. It also told us to keep an open mind about tech leading again. Once again, you can see when the market's concerned about inflation, we go above the 200-day moving average in January of 2022, just as the S& P 500 is peaking on January 3rd, 2022. And then we stay above a rising 200-day moving average for all of 2022 during the bear market. We don't have anything like that in the present day. The slope never turned up. Fact of anything, it looks like it's getting heavy again and turning down. We just made a new all-time low here. That's not what we're doing in 2022. We're making multi-month highs in here, and then eventually, we make a multi-year high in 2022. This chart told us to keep an open mind about risk on returning. So far, so good. You can see the chart here is back above the 7-month moving average. That would be similar to this point here. The rally continued. Not a prediction in any shape, form, or fashion. You could also make an argument that we never tagged the green trend line. So, we'll see how it unfolds. Another version of the concepts we've covered in this week's video and in recent weeks, can pause your video player. If the present-day chart starts to morph into something more like this, this is where the market peaks, the S& P 500 peaks in March of the year 2000. October of 2007 and then drops like a stone into about the third week of January 2008. Then has a rally attempt all the way back to the 200-day moving average and fails. Moral of story, this up here hasn't looked anything like this, nor this in recent weeks, and it still doesn't look like it. This is the early stages of an emerging trend. Blue has just started to separate from red and green.

### Segment 5 (20:00 - 25:00) [20:00]

Look how long blue was above red and green during this period here. This is 1986. Blue basically dominates all the way to this point here. Blue has been above red and green now for a little over a year. This is 1985 into the year 2000. Keeping in mind, it's not unusual for a relatively small number of large companies to drive stock market performance, and that makes sense. Why is that? Because typically only a handful of companies have come up with something that allows them to have above-average margins. Eventually, somebody catches up with them and takes their margin away. As no surprise, these are the companies that are typically growing their earnings faster than the average or median stock. And we just covered charts that tell us to keep an open mind about better than expected long-term outcomes. Looking out 6 to 36 months, but is there any way for us to quantify the probabilities related to this title with double digits in it? The answer is yes, and we have to respect, just like the charts, all of this helps us assess the probability of good things happening relative to the probability of bad things happening. happening is never zero. You will see this chart has some red in it. Probability of bad things happening is never zero. Having said that, buddy Dean, can follow him on X. Find his company by Googling Turning Point Market Research. Dean's a data guy. We like data guys. This stuff's very, very helpful. It helps us assess probabilities. That's what we should be doing as investors. We're always thinking about the probability of good things happening and the probability of bad things happening. Nothing is binary in the markets and life. Dean's study shows us S& P 500 technology performance. So, XLK after at least 28% of the sector stocks hit a new 252-day high. Something that just happened on May 6th, 2026. Handful of cases going back to 1954. It's also noteworthy. This case, 1954, 55, 56, 60, 65, 67. All of these occur within the context of a secular bull market. Here's one exception in 1972. Then we go to 95, 97, 99. All in the context of a secular bull market. 2013, 14, 17, 18, 20, 21, 24, and 26. You guessed it, all in the context of a secular bull market. Every single one of these signals occurred within the context of a secular bull. A concept that we've been talking about for a long time. And historically, what happened after the signal? So, this is hypothetically saying the past activity of some traders, traders just made this happen. What does it say about the probabilities related to the future activity of other traders? Well, in the historical cases, what happened? 82% of the time XLK or the tech sector was higher a year later. Median gain, 24. 3%. Mean or average, 23. 4. Simply telling us to keep an open mind about better than expected returns looking out 12 months. And these are additional gains that hypothetically would be the additional gain walking forward from May 6th. Two more studies, you can pause your video player. S& P 500 6-week winning streak was just nailed down today on Friday, the day this video is being recorded. The next 12 weeks, the maximum forward drop, maximum gain in the S& P 500, the average is 5. 4% over a 12-week period, the median was 4. 28. Every single one of the historical cases, the market was higher 12 weeks later. We'll expand on this study later in the video. Here's the source of the original study. This is Twitter or X here. Here's the X handle for Wayne

### Segment 6 (25:00 - 30:00) [25:00]

author of this study. You can read this here, but we wanted to know since he only looked at the performance between May 7th and May 29th using these signal dates, how did the Nasdaq perform walking forward 1 year? Once again, the answer 21. 25% the median return 24. 18. That's an additional gain. That's hypothetically walking forward from May 7th of 2026. Notice this and this, and all of these looks that we've covered tell us to keep an open mind about this. And we make decisions based on the chart in front of us, not based on a historical study or a forecast. So, if the charts break down again, we simply do what we always do. We trade the chart in front of us, and maybe we have to reassess our base case. Source of this study. Here's the X handle here. Something that just happened in the Nasdaq 100. 3 months later, 100% of historical cases it was higher. Average 20. 62, median 21. 03. Same source, different study. 6 months later, every single case Nasdaq 100 higher. Average gain additional gain 21%, median 18%. Shorter-term time frames. Look at all the red over here. Helping us maintain realistic expectations about how markets operate in the real world. When some of your ETFs go straight up, it's not likely that they're going to continue to straight up in the short to intermediate term. So, some give back would be 100% normal and to be expected. Remember we said we would expand on this study S& P 500 6-week winning streak. They looked at the next 12 weeks. We wanted to look at the next year. Average gain over 10% median additional gain over 10%. Roughly 92% of these historical cases, the market was higher. Worst-case scenario was a loss of roughly 3% looking out 12 months. Do the charts that we have in hand tend to align with or contradict the base case? This is a chart that we covered recently. It's the S& P 500 rolling over as the dot-com bubble is bursting. So, if the present-day chart looked like this or this, it would contradict the base case. But as we showed recently, the present-day chart aligns with rather than contradicts the base case. Kind of a side note here, software trying to rally IGV. If it can get into this white space, that would be a good next step. Even better to get back above the moving average cluster. This is IGV in isolation. This is an encouraging look at the moment. These are anchored volume weighted average price lines. They go way back. This is 2015, and you can see they go off your screen. So, IGV is trying to make a stand near a logical area. Recent peak, recent low, we're near the intersection. Clients and regular viewers know that's a logical place for buyers to use the liquidity and step in and thus far they have. The longer it can stay above the colored lines, the more relevant it becomes. However, if we were to look at the anchored weighted average price lines, this chart doesn't use volume, and we look at IGV relative to SPY, not much has happened yet. It would feel better if this started to look more like this. You can see we really haven't made an impressive higher high recently relative to SPY, and we haven't cleared any of these downward sloping AVWAP lines. So, a good next step would be to make a higher high above this high, clear this, and maybe clear these two lines and get into this region here. But, the important step would be to get all the way up here. So, in the short to intermediate term, you could still see a big move with mean reversion, but it still has some work to do. But, there's no question it's trying to make a stand at a very logical area, telling us to keep an open mind

### Segment 7 (30:00 - 34:00) [30:00]

about performance potentially improving. This is a better setup here when you look at the moving average cluster from the 20-day out to the 250-day than what we have in the present day. This is a strong downtrend that potentially could take time to dissipate. Notice the white space between the MAs. This looks more like this region in here, where it took time for that downward momentum to dissipate. So, if this look here can either V-bottom and get out here, or morph into something over time more like this, the odds would improve. But right now, the 20-day moving average hasn't even recaptured a downward-sloping 75-day moving average. And that's something that happened right here and right here during the bottoming process in 2022. And from a leadership perspective, a lot of work to do on multiple time frames. IGV relative to the S& P 500 batting 0 for 5 on the monthly cloud. weekly cloud. Seen some improvement on the daily cloud. But the most important step hasn't taken place yet. The most two important steps, really three. Really need to see the ratio get to the other side of the cloud. That's the most important. Cloud's got to flip from red to green. And then you really prefer to see a green and rising cloud on this daily chart as a next step. We do have blue above red, price above red. And at the moment, it looks like if you move in on the chart and look at it, the lagging span is slightly above the ratio. Under our approach, it is not likely that we would be buyers of IGV in the short to intermediate term. Because any move in this direction in the beginning is going to look like a countertrend move. Any move in this direction is going to initially look like a countertrend move within the context of a downtrend. Having said all that, where it's trying to make a stand relative to the anchored volume weighted average price lines says we should keep an open mind, and we will. As always, it's extremely important to note all of the commentary, 100% of it in this week's video, is based on the charts and data in front of us. If the data and the charts begin to deteriorate in a meaningful way, then we have to be willing to reassess the probabilities and potentially even reassess the base case. And all of that may begin to happen very, very soon. Could be as early as Monday morning. But it hasn't happened yet. These are the same moving averages as of May 8th, 2026. And we all know the only way that we can use all of this properly, especially if things begin to deteriorate, is if we had it in the next week and every week with that flexible, unbiased, and open mind. The material in this video has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any viewer. This video is presented solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, nor should any of its content be taken as investment advice. Any opinions expressed in this video are subject to change without notice and Chevaucher Capital Management LLC or CCM is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. CCM and its respective officers and associates or clients may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. CCM accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. We recommend that you consult with a licensed and qualified professional before making any investment decision.