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Оглавление (4 сегментов)
Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)
So Elon Musk just dropped the craziest idea yet and it's pretty ambitious towards AGI, a pretty crazy agent. So let's talk about it. So earlier today, Elon Musk posted this massive tweet revealing something called macro hard and something also known as digital optimus. And yes, macro hard is a deliberate joke. It's the opposite of Microsoft. Micro and soft versus macro and hard. And that's of course the level of trolling we're dealing with here. But the actual thing that he's describing is no joke. And I want to break this down in as simple as possible because the way Elon described it is a little bit confusing for most people. And people were literally tagging rock in the replies asking it to explain the tweet to them like they were 5 years old. And trust me, and 8 hours after that, he said, "Join Tesla for real world AGI or Xi for digital world AGI. " So it's pretty clear that he's building AGI. So, if you want to know what macro hard actually is, imagine an AI that can pretty much sit at a computer, watch a screen, use a keyboard and mouse, and do the work that a human would do like an office worker. It sees what's on the screen, understands what needs to be done, and then clicks the buttons, types things, fills out spreadsheets, whatever. Now, the way Elon is building this is actually pretty clever. He used the comparison to how your brain works to explain it. There's a famous book by Daniel Connean called Thinking Fast and Slow about how your brain has two systems. So system one is your fast brain. It catches a board without thinking, reads your sentence without sounding out each word and it just does things automatically. System two is your slow brain. The part that just does math, plans your week and thinks about the meaning of life. Now Elon is essentially saying here that macro hard is going to work in the same way. The Tesla side digital optimus is system one. That's the fast part. It watches the last 5 seconds of your computer screen and sees what kind of keyboard and mouse movements you're doing and then it reacts in real times. It's the hands and it runs on Tesla's AI4 chip which costs just $650. The same chip that's in Tesla's cars for self-driving. Then Grock Xai's chatbot is the system 2 thinking and that's the thinking brain. It understands the world, knows the context, understands the overall goal and tells the fast part what to do. Grock is like Google Maps telling you where you're going to go. And digital Optimus is your hands on the steering wheel actually driving. And here's the wild claim. Elon Musk says that this could actually emulate the function of entire companies. The accounting, the emails, the data entry, customer service, all of it. And that's why he named it Macro hard. He's saying his AI could replace what Microsoft does. No other company can yet do this. And that's a direct quote. And that tweet itself, remember, it hit nearly five million views in just a couple of hours. So that's why I said this is one of his most ambitious things yet. An entire software company that's able to emulate multi-billion dollar corporations. Now, we must ask ourselves why does this matter? Because before we get into the drama, this technical approach is very interesting and we have to understand that this is fundamentally different from what every other company is doing. You see most agents right now like computer use from Claude or you know other products from Anthropic or you know OpenAI or Google Gemini they work by taking screenshots of your screen. The AI looks at a frozen picture and then it figures out what to do. It clicks. It takes another screenshot and then it repeats. It's kind of like stop motion animation. Click look think. And this is kind of like what we do. But what Elon Musk is describing is fundamentally different. Instead of looking at frozen pictures, Digital Optimus processes continual real-time video of the screen. The same way that Tesla's self-driving system processes continuous video from their cars cameras. So, instead of stop motion, it's kind of like watching a movie. The AI sees what's happening on screen as a flowing stream and reacts in real time, which in theory would make it way faster and more natural than the screenshot approach. Now, remember, this is a pretty big deal if they can pull it off. Tesla has years of experience training AI on continuous video from millions of cars. Over 10 billion miles of driving data. Applying that approach to watching a computer screen is a logical next step. And the other smart part is the cost structure. The fast part runs on a cheap $650 Tesla chip that sits on your desk. And the expensive thinking part, the Grock, runs in the cloud and only gets called when needed. So you're not burning expensive compute for every mouse click. And so with all that being said, we now need to talk about the thing that I think is the most mind-blowing. And that is of course the AGI play, which is where we have to talk about the part that most people are sleeping on. Because of course macro hard is a funny name, but digital Optimus is where the real story is. And when you understand what digital optimus represents in the bigger picture, it starts looking a lot less like a product announcement and a more like an AGI play. So here's what you need to understand. Tesla has two versions of Optimus. There's the physical Optimus humanoid robot that walks around, can pick things up, and
Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)
can do physical labor. And remember, Tesla is converting their old Model S and Model X factory line in Fremont, California into a Optimus production line, and they're targeting 1 million robots per year. That is the physical site. And then there's Digital Optimus, which is the software version. This is the one Elon just announced. And here's the key insight that really clicked for me. Digital Optimus has been described internally at Tesla as the superset of everything except physical Optimus. Let me say that again because I think it's pretty important. The superset of everything except physical Optimus. That means it's designed to do everything a human can on a computer while the physical robot does everything a human can do in the real world. And between the two of them, you've basically covered every type of work a human does. And the really crazy part about all of this is that both systems shared the same hardware technology and the same AI approach. The physical Optimus robot uses Tesla's AI4 chip and digital Optimus uses Tesla's AI4 chip. The physical robot processes realtime video to understand the physical world and digital Optimus processes real-time video to understand a computer screen. The physical robot uses reinforcement learning to figure out how to grab objects and walk. And digital optimist uses reinforcement learning to figure out how to click button to navigate software. The same architecture, two different environments. And this is where the AGI conversation gets interesting. Just one week before this macro hard environment, Elon posted on X actually saying that Tesla will be one of the first companies to make AGI and probably the first to make it in humanoid/atomshaping form. Now, at the time, people didn't really know what he meant by that cuz of course he tweets all the time. But after today's announcement, we can see that the picture is much clearer. Now, most people think of AGI as purely a digital thing, a super intelligent chatbot living in the cloud. But Elon's version of AGI is different. He's building what you might call embodied AGI, an intelligence that exists in both the digital and physical world simultaneously. The digital Optimus handles every desk job, every computer task, and every software interaction. The physical Optimus will handle every warehouse job, every factory, and every physical world interaction. Both are controlled by the same underlying intelligence, Grock, acting as the system to brain. And here's where the scale actually becomes insane. Tesla has over 5 million vehicles on the road, each with an AI4 chip inside of it. And according to AI Invest analysis, Tesla is targeting 3 million AI4 cars in the United States alone to create a distributed computing network. That's three million computers that can train and run these AI agents when the car is parked, which is most of the time. And what's crazy is that Suliman Guri, the XAI engineer who got fired for talking about this on a podcast, specifically mentioned that they were using unused Tesla vehicles as computing power for the system. And that's distributed supercomputer that no other company on Earth can actually match. And remember, Tesla already has over 10 billion miles of autopilot data and over a billion miles of FSD data from those 5 million plus vehicles. All of that data about how to process, react, and you know, have those real-time information, visual feeds directly going into digital Optimus. The experience Tesla has teaching cars to react and see to the road is essentially the same problem as teaching an AI to react and see to a computer screen. It's visual processing plus decision-m plus real-time action, just a different environment. When Elon Musk actually says, "No other car company can do this. " Well, no other actual company can do this, I think he actually has a point for once. Not because the individual pieces are impossible. A lot of companies are building AI agents, but because nobody else has the combination of custom chip, the 5 million vehicle compute network, 10 billion miles of visual training data, and the physical robot, the digital agent, and a frontier AI model, all under one roof, or well, under multiple roofs controlled by one guy. And you know, this is where the story gets even more interesting because there is something that most people are missing as per usual. And so the same morning that Elon Musk posted this grand announcement, Business Insider actually published a massive report revealing that the Macro hard project had basically fallen apart inside XAI. And I mean fallen apart. According to their reporting, which was based on multiple people inside the company, the project had stalled, leadership was in chaos, and the team had been gutted. Now, let me walk you through the timeline because it's wild. Macro Hard was first announced by Elon back in August of last year, and he said that since software companies like Microsoft don't actually make any physical hardware, it should be possible to simulate them entirely with AI. XAI even filed a trademark the same name Macro hard with a US patent office. And inside XAI, that became one of their core projects alongside Grock Code and Grock Imagine. But from the start, the project actually kept shuffling between different leaders. Nobody could get it
Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00)
to work at scale. And then in February, two macro hard team engineers just left the company. And after they left, Elon held an all hands meeting to put one of Xi's co-founders, Toby Poland, in charge of fixing it. And then that guy quit 16 days later. 16 days. That's just how bad things were. Apparently, he was under enormous pressure from Elon, who was unhappy with the progress the whole team had been making. It actually gets worse because Business Insider found that nearly two dozen engineers who identified themselves as working on Macro hard either left XAI or moved to different teams and more than that's more than 12 people in just a past month alone. And there are currently zero jobs openings for the macro hard team on XAI careers page. That doesn't exactly scream a thriving project. And remember how we spoke about the Suliman Gory situation which kind of reads like some spy movie. This guy was an XAI engineer who worked on Macro hard and went on this podcast called Relentless back in January and where he actually spilled the beans on basically everything. He called the Macro hard agents human emulators and explained how they were meant to do anything a human needs to look at a screen, use a keyboard and a mouse and to make decisions. And he even mentioned what we discussed previously where you're using that unused Tesla vehicles as computing power for the system. And remember guys, 4 days after that podcast was aired, he was no longer at the company. And people assumed that he got fired for leaking too much. And honestly, that timing makes it pretty obvious. So if you're wondering that, you know, is this something real? It very much is. — Uh so actually this one's public. So one thing that we're thinking about is okay, like we're building this human emulator with macro hard. Um how do we deploy it? because you actually need like if we want to deploy 1 million human emulators, we need 1 million computers. Um, how do we do that? And the answer showed up 2 days later in the form of a Tesla computer because those things are actually very capital efficient as it turns out. And we can run um potentially like our model and the like full computer that a human would otherwise work at on the Tesla computer for much cheaper than you would in on a VM on AWS or Oracle or whatever or even just buying hardware from NVIDIA. That car computer is actually much more capital efficient and so it enables us to assume that we can deploy much faster at a much higher scale. Um, and so we've adjusted our we adjusted our expectations for that basically. — And remember guys, it's not just the macro hard team. According to other sources, which I cover this myself, XAI co-founders, meaning that only half the original 12 XAI co-founders are still even at the company, which is pretty alarming when you figure out that's for the whole organization and not just one project. So, some people would argue that based on the timeline of events here with all of these announcements going on with Elon Musk, some people could argue that, you know, Business Insider published this devastating report earlier today saying that this entire project is stalled, the entire team is gutted, and that the data collection is pulled. And then a few hours later, Elon Musk drops a tweet reframing the entire thing and instead of Macro hard being an XAI project that stalled, suddenly it's a joint XAI and Tesla project. Instead of it being dead, it's being reborn as digital optimist under Tesla's autopilot team. And to be fair, Business Insider does report and does confirm that some of the macro hard work was sifting to the Tesla autopilot team. And Tesla has been working on Digital Optimus and even posted a job listing for it in February. But the way that Elon Musk posted it today makes it seem like this was always the grand plan when the reporting suggests that this might have actually been more of an emergency pivot after the XAI version collapsed. So, what does all of this actually mean? Well, on the technical side, you've got the system one and system 2 architecture, which is genuinely interesting. Using real-time video processing instead of screenshots could be a real advancement. The cost structure of cheap edge hardware plus explive cloud reasoning is smart engineering. And Tesla does have a legitimate edge with their years of experience processing realtime video for self-driving. But there are some massive red flags going on. The project already has failed once XAI. The team is gutted and the data collection is paused and the original approach of training on static screenshots didn't work well enough so they had to pivot. Multiple leaders have come and gone and the fact that Elon Musk is now pitching this as a Tesla project after it's stalled at XAI suggest it might be more about a corporate spin than actual product readiness. And remember guys, the competitor landscape is also worth mentioning. Anthropic has claude co-work which already does autonomous computer tasks. OpenAI has similar products and Google is working on project mariner and these are companies that have been shipping actual working products while macro hard has been going through leadership crisis after leadership crisis. The bottom line is this. This announcement is pretty crazy. The thing is genuinely ambitious. The technical approach is pretty interesting. The gap between the grand vision and the reality of the project is enormous. Whether this turns into a working product or becomes another long line in Elon's line of promises remains to be seen, but I'd
Segment 4 (15:00 - 15:00)
love to know your thoughts. And hopefully guys enjoyed the