Indian Influencers Are WRONG About India!

i have a problem with the way indian influencers are doing things in the last two years every influencer has milked the concept of ancient india ancient indian scum mathematics ayurveda yoga itiyari fields may be immense contribution i agree india had great moments but i don't want to stay stuck in the past i don't want you also celebrate the past but focus on the present and the future today i'm going to show you a shocking report called the indus valley report it is written by a venture capital firm they are also an investor in avalon and they have given me permission to make a video on it i will show you through data and story how india has grown up did you know that in 2021 upi merchant payments accounted for 43 percent of point-of-sale payments in india but here is the contradiction despite us having amazing technology like upi the method of sales was still peer-to-peer it's still the same old method of sales that we've used for many years and it seems to be the best performing method in the country despite us building one of the most frictionless payment systems in the world with 828 000 crore gmv we still have 45 to 50 percent of all e-commerce volume coming through cash on delivery people still want to pay with notes in a country that is demonetized 70 of tier 2 transactions are still cash on delivery ninety percent of tier three transactions are cash on delivery that shows you something any new technology starts off being adopted by the tier one and then moves or proceeds further along the branches of the country let's move on to women did you know that india has the highest female pilot participation rate in the world but at the same time did you know india has the lowest female labor participation rate in the world the fact that being a pilot is not easy it requires training it requires study and at the same time something that women are able to accomplish in such a rate they're not even making it to 20 of the labor force in the country it's a contradiction and it's an important contradiction to keep in mind as we go forward let's talk about engineers so if you are watching this there is a high percentage chance key up engineer in college they pass away the problem is even though india has the third highest representation of engineers in the world only 55 of engineers are actually employable that number hasn't improved too much over the last four or five years and the main reason for it is because we as a country have focused on producing more degrees and less quality engineers again a contradiction ladies and gentlemen i'm not here to tell you about the contradictions only in the country i'm about to tell you the rise of india in 2022 and why that happened i'm going to summarize it in one tweet by balaji sreenivasan jio's entry into telephony through the 4g network dropped prices so hard that 41 of the population in india currently uses internet and has active access to internet on a daily basis not only that we are much ahead of pakistan and slowly closing up to china it doesn't matter what china's absolute numbers are today it matters how quickly or what the momentum of growth has been and india's momentum has been phenomenal but i want to tell you an interesting stat the company that i run avalon we create a community product called scenes and for many years people asked us to make a desktop app while we were in india we said no do you want to know why here is the

chart of the growth of home broadband versus mobile internet users in india while home broadband is displayed in sky blue you can see that the growth is not great but if you look at mobile internet the growth has been through the roof at this rate we will grow into one of the largest digital economies in the world it is phenomenal it doesn't even make sense for you to build anything on desktop if you're a business person and apko app banana to do it for the mobile phone so why has this happened this has happened because the cost of 1gb of internet in india has dropped from 268 rupees in 2014 to 6. 6 rupees in 2021. it's a phenomenal drop unleashed by jio every other competitor had to follow suit and drop prices to match or they would lose the digital war in the country the data consumption per indian per month was 18. 4 gb while in china it was just 14. 5 and the global average is much lower at 11. 9 gb indians are spending their time watching content video calling watching movies soap operas etc and i consider the amount of gb of internet you are using as you spending on attention and your attention is going towards content that doesn't really make the cut however india is still hesitant about money while 60 of usa and 50 percent of china have transacted online just 10 of india has made a transaction online even though we are one of the most extreme consumers of internet across the world and on that story of consumption i want to go deeper i want to show you stats that might shock you if you have gone to a school where the medium of instruction was in english and where your school fees were more than 12 000 rupees a year congratulations you are in the top 13 percent of indians in the country in fact if your school fees were more than 30 000 rupees per year you are in the top 3 of this country and the reasons for that are because of employment 10 of this country has a permanent salaried gig or a permanent salary job the rest are all entrepreneurs kirana store owners blacksmiths medical shops plumbers india is a self-employed country with very few people having stable employment this creates a nation of nations we actually have three india's basis their spending their likes their habits their attitudes this is important for you if you ever plan to run a business because you will have to choose who you go after at the very top there is india one with just 110 million people this is worth 1 trillion of gdp these people are english fluent they are digitally savvy they know how to use a phone computer they have western values some of them have hidden internal values but mostly western and they value convenience over cost while you might not like 10 minute delivery for them it might be more of a need because they are not only extraordinarily busy they are also extraordinarily lazy india one uses brands like oyo and uber but if you zoom in there is even more data here in fact at the very top of india one there is another india called india one alpha these are the top five percent of tier one cities and top 0. 1 percent of tier 2 cities these are the people that are fully westernized they have spoken english since the day they were born these people like brands like raw pressure or little black book or netflix next there is india 2. now india 2 has 104 million people and 300 billion dollars of gdp even though the sheer number of these people are the same as the previous segment they contribute less than a third of the gdp these people are not very comfortable with english they have some level of digital savviness it's not great and most importantly they aspire for a better life and they feel that a mobile phone and the digital world and the content creators allow them that social mobility which is why vs content creators have to be so careful about what we say and what kind of aspirations we create these people still use facebook and they also spend plenty of their time on apps like sharechat now finally there is india 3. india 3 has 10 times the number of people as india won it has one two six million people 1. 3 trillion dollars in gdp now india 3 spends most of their time on youtube and whatsapp they are less educated they engage in manual labor they could be the construction person down the streets but they still hold india afloat in fact if you are a business you need to either target these people or you need to target india one because the gdp contribution is the same but with india three there is so much more volume for you to target now a lot of people keep sending me dms asking me

where i invest now my investment strategy is very much based on this breakup of india see i'm bullish on all four segments of india and i have different investments that cater to different parts of the country i use the app small case because i don't have the time to pick out stocks individually and in my head i sought these investments between the four segments of india using small cases for those of you that don't know small case is an app that i've used for many years that actually allows me to pick baskets of stocks that i'm interested in and have a team of professionals that actually keep working on these stocks to improve the portfolio over time for those of you that are interested in splitting your investments across baskets that exist across tiers of india do check out small case whose link is in my description i want to explain these four segments of india in two ways the first way is to go back to india one alpha and talk about netflix has four and a half million paying users in india hot star which has a lot of vernacular content which targets india one and india two has 47 million paying users but the grand daddy of them all youtube which targets india 1 alpha india 1 india 2 india 3 with 467 million users per hour it is so large that it eclipses the size of the other two combined the second way i want to explain this is through a tweet by kunal shah was speaking to senior folks at e-commerce companies and found that the top 5 million customers probably drive 60 of all online sales in india and the indus valley report when they spoke to somebody from amazon confirmed these numbers and said that even though amazon prime's numbers are just five to seven million users they account for over 50 percent this is a tiny user base but the most valuable remember there are 110 million people in india one but amazon is focusing on just five million of the top of those kovid made this even worse if you look at the richest 20 in india from 2016 to 2021 their wealth grew 39 if you look at the poorest 20 their wealth dipped 53 this is the problem with the kind of system we've created where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer whenever there's economic collapse now the india 1 2 and 3 that i showed you were stats for 2019. in 2021 that changed india once saw five million new entrants while india two became smaller and india three continued to get larger now we might think that a country like india's growth is driven by agriculture or it's driven by anything that's physical but that's not true india is truly a cloud country and our growth has been bits not atoms the it industry share from 2000 to today has grown from 2. 5 percent to 7. 5 percent pre-pandemic it was closing in on nine percent but many a time we overestimate this number according to the ceo of wazirex india does not have 10 crore people in crypto someone published an incorrect random number and now other parts of media are picking it up about two crore is a conservative number for the total number of people using crypto in india now this is something that the founder of zeroda keeps talking about startups that are raising money to go after india 2 and india 3 will fail because even though there are a lot of accounts they seem not to be transacting users because they make too little money to actually transact i'm optimistic i feel over a 20-year timeline anything can happen india 2 and india 3 can truly grow up and start making enough money to seriously contribute to gdp but as of today it seems unlikely but how does

india advance you see we've always asked this question right how do we give people social mobility there are three

axes of social mobility today the first one is english the second one is exams and the third one is exit i'm going to explain what these three are and this is going to offend a few people who don't like the english language who feel that english is too complicated a language or their mother tongue is better that may be true english is probably one of the most convoluted and irritating languages in the world but it is the language of global opportunity and it seems that most people who learn english from a young age especially if they're from tier 2 or 3 cities are able to talk to people from different years also they are able to get global opportunities it truly seems the pathway to success for now according to arvind kejriwal government school students mostly come from economically poor backgrounds when i meet them their biggest demand is sir english bolna dga i'm so happy this course is now starting for government school students now you might find many people on social media that are anti-english from india the thing is the kids know where the future is at and the kids are actually demanding to learn the language of opportunity english is not the best language in the world but it is the language of financial opportunity and for us to grow as a civilization we must not only respect our mother tongues we must also go after opportunity both are important because here is where we learn our values contribute those values now i don't need to tell you about this but let me describe this in numbers iit-jee has 2. 2 million test takers and 16 000 seats upsc has 1. 1 million test takers but just 1 000 seats railways have 12. 5 million test acres and 35 000 seats we have about 60 million test takers in this country and it turns out for them that getting into a college is more about social mobility than learning anything being able to have access and have some brand some stamp something is important a nation of billion plus people where it's so easy to be ignored the third way to make more money in this country is to actually leave the country now this is one thing that makes me extremely sad in 1999 only 56 000 people left india but in 2019 more than half a million people left this country in the hopes of a better education and a better life outside your uncles and aunties every time an indian becomes the ceo of a large company your uncles and aunties will send you a message saying see india is great the problem is that these people have an american passport they have american values and they don't live here they don't create anything for this country why are we sitting here and taking credit for that because the more we take credit for it the more we send our kids abroad because in our heads it becomes one of the same thing india is a great country but we should go work outside it's ironic that the very same people who say wonderful things about india's past are the ones that push their children to go abroad and study this is something i disagree with and it is something that is fixable with more businesses coming up in this country

government jobs are few very hard to get but well paid most young men in this country spend their 20s preparing for exams and also go to the extremes of rioting when the exams get postponed most people can't understand why people riot when the exams get postponed but i'll tell you why the reason is you block their social mobility and rob their futures from them but there is a fourth axis of advancement one that we should spend more attention on and that access is enterprise and startups now the report goes into some history from 1988 to 2004 we ran several software services companies in the country infosys was one of them mass tech was another in 2004 to 2010 we had red bus and nokri in 2010 to 2016 we had companies like flipkart sri and delivery come out then in 2016 to 2022 we had companies like qatar book and unacademy many of these companies target different segments of india some target the upper segment india won alpha or india one some target india two and india three it does not matter the idea is to create better livelihoods more convenience and more jobs the it sector has always been india's growth engine in 1999 we only had four billion dollars in it revenue in 2019 we have 177 billion dollars in i. t revenue 35 to 40 percent of total exports in 2022 are from the it and bpm sector you have no idea what kind of export impact we have from it the world looks up to us the world respects us for our engineering capabilities from upi to the it services the one reason india has started really shining is our ability to create great software now it pains me to see people saying oh you must not learn to code oh coding is bad look if you don't want to do it that's great but do not discourage other people from doing it because today it contributes to half the export volume it makes not only your and my life easy it also makes the life easy of people from india 2 and india 3 most importantly it creates more jobs for everyone in this country and even for people outside by direct and gig jobs it has gone from having 1. 4 million gig jobs to 3. 4 million gig jobs in the last five years the number of startups in india has gone from three percent in 2013 to 12 in 2020. the last week i went home and my parents were talking about shark tank i don't think i've ever heard my parents talk about startups with this level of forward and this level of interest startups have become mainstream because they are the vehicle of not only excitement which is what we look at startups for but also for social mobility for the masses that used english exams and exit as their only vehicles of social mobility as long as these startups end up learning how to be profitable which is going to happen sooner or later the dance can't continue forever we will create a better india for india because of the interest in this market by venture funding we are the fourth largest country in the world in 2021 we are very close to uk we will probably be the third largest soon now we're still far behind china and the usa but this is a work in progress now many of those companies are going to be useless but at some point there will be maturity in this market this is a fresh market right we're still learning we're still teething don't worry about startups burning money it happens and the crash that's now here is going to teach them a lesson from which they will recover and create a more mature market the main reason for venture capital taking off in india is because of flipkart's exit when one person does well other people want to replicate that success more importantly india has now become an ecosystem of repeat founders such as myself and many others who have run one company and have now used those learnings to build the next one creates a more mature ecosystem now the report dives into plenty of different types of business in india it diverges and talks about sas businesses at tech retail hospitality etc now i'm not going to dive into any of those but i'm going to put a link to the report in the description i'm going to end this video by talking about the factors that have actually led to the growth of india that have led to this explosive last two three years this country has seen number one the wang trifecta so the person who wrote this report sajit pai once met the founder of agora tony wang and he told him that the chinese consumer economy took off when three things happened one cheap bandwidth was available two a smartphone existed in every pocket and three a frictionless payment system similar to upi india's had this van trifecta emerge and that is one of the large reasons why india is growing so fast as a tech economy there's a steady rise in per capita incomes and that's led by the creamy layer now this is true in any civilization right any country in the world there going to be some people who get super rich and the others who follow and then you know there's gonna be a bottom rung it's just how humans organize themselves it's also how capital organizes itself but this creamy layer as long as they continue to spend that money recirculates downwards which is important because it creates new people who can go upwards social mobility comes from the top layer spending and from the three e's english exams and exit now india's public infra like upi and other and open data platforms have allowed different banks to talk to each other now this is going to piss off some of the crypto people but we have a centralized system that makes crosstalk possible it reduces fraud in the system and allows everyone in the country to actually open a bank account even though we're not anywhere there the trends are in good direction next there are lots of e-commerce enablers right if you want to sell in this country you had to start a store go to a place that was crowded stand there on the store for 10 hours a day and hope somebody bought from you for the first time in decades we have the ability to sell online and this has been made possible by flipkart and amazon soon i would also love to see what on dc does and whether it makes it possible for everyone in india to sell finally if you want to change anything in this country you have to have talent and today we have a flywheel of talent thankfully more people are entering tech more people are building things of value to the next person and more people have entered the workforce in creating value whether by creating jobs or by creating value in their jobs now that ends our analysis of the report now i truly believe as a country we're growing up i truly believe this explosion of tech in the country is making everyone's lives better there might be some companies you don't like that are unprofitable and will die but that's okay as a country we must learn how to forgive the mistakes of the few for the benefits of the masses i feel as a country we are so stuck in the past that we forget that a revolution is happening in the present and for the future let us refocus our eyes here and build a better nation today rather than mull over whether we were a better nation many years ago that's it for me make sure you subscribe bye