[Rant] coronavirus

this video is going to be a rant there is not really a script and I have not really thought this through but I would like to talk about some things that are on my mind and that I don't see discussed very often with respect to coronavirus I'm not a medical expert I don't play a doctor on the internet and there absolutely is no need to follow any of my advice or take anything as advice that I say I just want to talk and maybe someone else will have a good idea of what I talk so it is a crazy world we live in I would have never thought at the beginning of this year that this would be the year where everyone stays at their house and works from home and I've always thought that in a time like this when the economy is going down basically the thing of value would be something like Bitcoin or really theorem or alternative things but no everything's going down and the actual new currency of choice is toilet paper everyone's gonna grab the toilet paper what a crazy world where the most trusted news source is someone like Tucker Carlson yeah didn't see that one coming thanks Tucker for saving us so I don't know what to make of this and I do know that this is a serious situation and you should definitely do everything you can to take care of yourself and your community what I want to talk about is the question of what is it going to do long term so if we think about this we often think about this right now we have an exponential increase in number of cases you've probably seen this and you've probably seen graphics like these where the goal is to fly and the curve the sense behind this being that if this Rises exponentially of course at some point it will affect the entire population so it's going to flatten out and if you look at the number of new cases daily it might be some curve like this the problem is that we only have a finite capacity of healthcare systems so all these people are basically going to be screwed once we get to this point now the goal is to flatten the curve that we can take some measures to keep this curve under at the capacity of our healthcare system these measures are varying wildly so it is these measures that I want to talk about a bit now these measures range from something like social distancing right where you basically say all right no big events no groups of large people social distancing and you know just kind of a avoid contact with other people now of course all the CES departments of the world go like well this is business as usual like yay we've practiced for this our entire lives so it is mildly inconvenient but you know we can keep it up all the way to lockdown comes also in various forms but the most drastic sense is stay home or you'll get shot or locked up or something like this and this is this discrepancy of course the more down on the curve you go the more you're going to theoretically flatten this out the more the less you do the higher your peak is going to be but it's not that easy I find if you look at the cases here of course your exponential your rising but if you look at where the outbreak started in China the orange curve here you actually see the number of cases flattening out now you see it flattening out at something like a hundred K and last I know China has more people than 100 K so that means not everyone's infected now with a disease that infects this easily spreads this easily from person to person as it appears to be the case there are two possibilities either the rest of China which china is over a billion people and this is 100 K so the entire rest of China basically almost all of China is asymptomatic which the

latest numbers are here are that maybe 50% of cases are asymptomatic or the other possibility is that most of China has yet to be infected now with a virus like this if you look at the distribution it's basically arrived everywhere in the world so there is very little hope of snuffing this thing out actually making it stop which what you'd have to do is you'd have to lock every single person down for two to three weeks and now only a single person that doesn't keep - that can start a new outbreak so what I fully expect to happen if these numbers are correct and if China actually has done this successfully so flattens this curve successfully is that let's say the green thing here is China is that okay they get to a point where they feel they have no new cases for a while so they let the restriction up right they remove the restriction there's going to be some person somewhere in some Z s Department that now goes outside and meets another person and in that particular person here the virus happens to have an incubation period of 21 days instead of 14 and they're going to transmit that to 2 3 4 5 people after these measures everyone's going to be longing for social contacts and large groups and we might gradually loosen the restrictions but still a new outbreak is inevitable it seems so what you'll have again is a spike and then a country might enact measures again and so on but I believe the world we're going to live in if we really lock down people if we really enforce these measures is a world of multiple repeated seasonal peaks of this disease and that means we are in for the long term I don't want to say ever that we shouldn't do that because it of course effectively reduces the number of deaths which should be our ultimate goal here but just know that flattening the curve wants like these graphics here is a bit misleading I believe we need to be thinking about a long term plan here and since we're going long term and with long term I mean months I mean multiple years and with long term the problem here is the people and I want to elaborate on that so the largest problem are the people aren't just machines that you can command around people are individuals they have their own ideas goals that they want to fulfill right at some point I'm gonna go on a vacation this is an island with a tree so let's talk about lockdown it appears to be a thing that is necessary in some parts if you ask some people again I don't want to give advice on this I just want to give some thoughts so what you get with lockdown you get oMG it's happening and so that's day 1 day 3 you get funny YouTube videos everyone that is in lockdown will do be like oh I'm stuck at home it's so boring already forgetting that other people have major issues with being locked down a lot of people sitting on top of each other is going to create a lot of problems and eventually more and more people are going to long for this to end and I'm not saying that you know that is that a response to a virus should be fun but what I'm saying is that people are going to break this it is inevitable first some are going to break then more you have a very delicate balance going on here right now there is a lot of support a lot of people are on the side of locking things down in a lockdown a lot of people are conscientious staying home avoiding social contact as much as possible but some are going to be the first ones to go over there some are going to break some are going to find excuses not to keep to it and the problem is the harder the measures are the harder you are down here the stronger the poll is going to be for people to go on this other side and I guarantee you the people on social media

that are shaming others the most that are yelling out the loudest for others to not break the lockdown either they have an extremely comfortable living at their own homes which is an extreme privilege or they are the worst ones to break it to themselves to find every excuse they can why they are exempt from it and people are going to see this more and more be over here and with more people over here look they have the sunshine they're out and about they're doing their things more like normal the people over here they're going to see this and more people will be hey why am i keeping to this why am I not over there why can't these people do that and they'll go and at some point the scale is going to tip and any lockdown barring martial law and the threat of being shot if you go outside will be ineffective and at that point wherever you are the cases are going to spy and it'll be even worse than when you did nothing or as bad so I believe that is very delicate balance that you have to strike here total lockdown people aren't going to take this for a long time and you need to think about a long time here I don't know what the answer is I don't know where exactly the scale of just keep part to stay home whatever it takes yes I just think that too harsh measures can also be counterproductive I'm very fortunate to live in Switzerland most of our neighbors have instituted total lock downs and the Swiss government has recently decided not to do so at this time with I believe much of the same reasoning as I'm just laying out we need to think about this long term and people are not going to keep to a lockdown long term and it'll be worse if they don't now I believe the best response to something like this is a distributed one I believe the best response is to go to people in their networks people usually care about the people around them enough so that they will take responsibility into the hand I believe you should in give the people the responsibility as much responsibility as you can and I believe the network of people each one arranging themselves in the most pro-social way can be the best response better than any government could do governments can do things such as prohibit large gatherings you know sometimes if you don't do that even the individual people can do anything against that but to actually believe in your citizens and believe in the fundamental goodness of humans and the fundamental care for other humans is a strong suit here on the other hand you see other governments I have read that a city in Norway is thinking about employing a monitoring systems where they track everyone's phone and if more than a certain amount of people are in the same place they will basically send everyone a text message saying you should disperse while this is an effective measure and I believe can definitely help and it is something that you need to be very careful about as we saw with 911 as soon as governments get power they rarely let it go as well Edward Snowden finally demonstrated if you enact something like this you must definitely make sure that there is a time limit on it any government measure right now be that spending to help the economy which is certainly a good thing be this measures to increase social distancing to prohibit public gatherings I support this but it must be time limited otherwise governments aren't gonna let this go finally I would like to come to a more global scale of long term thinking countries and other countries as you go on you need to think about your economy our economies were growing a fairly good pace until this hit and now they're plunging at any point they're going to be opportunists personal opportunists hoarding toilet paper and hand sanitizer and trying to sell them for market up prices and they're going to be country opportunists everything's falling down

if you're the country that locks things down now your economy is going to fall eventually though you'll have to get back the countries that get back sooner will be in an upswing sooner basically the question is where is the ideal point here to leave the to not react anymore to let people do their thing to get back on track I don't know where that is but I believe you're going to see cold war like situation in the world where countries are going in key accuse other countries of not doing enough or doing too much of not playing fairly of helping to spread the virus and I believe that it will be the case for the years to come because what happens over the long time of course right now you can afford to not fix that pipe under your house that's broken you can afford to not clean the do not get the person to clean the chimney you can afford to not get dental work done I don't even know how to draw tooth let's say this is a tooth probably has some peaks here over the long term though all of these things are going to break and we need to get back to normal and the longer estate keeps up these measures the worse it's going to get finally we need to talk about risk people at risk tend to be older tend to be ones with health issues think about this if you're an old person having health issues you're looking at a long term once you realize this is not going to be over in a few weeks what do you do year old and the next year or so in lockdown mode it's going to be hard for you and for everyone but a year if you're that old and sick is probably more quality life you have left then after it so you need to be thinking either I'm going to survive this because I bunker in my house don't get the virus but what is it worth because my other diseases will get me afterwards otherwise I could be spending the quality time I have with my family with my children with my grandchildren could be spending it with my friends and if I die it is not an easy question but I'm absolutely sure there are people right now who are asking themselves this if you're a government in your thinking about mandatory lockdown I do see that this is in order to save people in order to not have people walking around that spread the virus to vulnerable populations but you need to be thinking about the people you're trying to help some of them would actually be on this side I don't know what the best response is to everything here I think we're just going to see and I don't want to give advice this is just some of the things I think I wish everyone the absolute healthiest season they can have right now take care please think about others please do not make the problem worse yourself you're a part of a network and you can be a powerful force for good during this time think about long term if you're asking your government to do things think about what's the best situation and how we're gonna get there thanks and stay healthy