Sam Altmans Stunning Prediction Is Deeper Than You Think

so today Sam mman dropped another blog post that most people are probably going to overlook but it's hard to grasp just how important this blog post is and the key things that he said that will guide us in actually predicting where the future is now before diving into the blog post I want to remind you all of another blog post Sam mman wrote in 2021 titled Mo's law for everything and the reason I'm bringing up this one called mors law for everything is because this blog post if we take a look back to the time that it was made and take a look at the things that are going on in today's society it is remarkably accurate in its prediction one of the thing that he actually said that we can take a look at was that he stated that in the next 5 years computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice and this is essentially what we are seeing right now documents and programs and all these kinds of things are actually happening on a day-to-day basis a medical advice from systems like opening eyes1 and Google's medical models are slowly being integrated into wider Society so when we take a look at the fact that saman's previous blog post from March 16th of 2021 and it's been remarkably accurate so far we can take a look at this new one titled the intelligence age which was only published just yesterday and truly understand where the future of AI is headed now I think in order to truly grasp what's going on here we need to take a look at the first sent and he said here okay and try not to get too excited but he says in the next couple of decades we will be able to do things that would have seemed like magic okay and Magic to our grandparents and the reason I think that is so fascinating is because when we truly take a look at the previous iterations of Technology when we think about how crazy it is that we have planes that can fly we have fighter jets that can fly, 2,000 mph doing Sonic booms we've got technology like AI currently that can write things completely from scratch we've got TVs iPhones Holograms drones we've got all these kinds of incredible Technologies landing on the moon Starling I mean the list goes on and on the internet and smartphones have literally changed how we communicate and access information and some people in the early 20th century couldn't have even dreamed or even imagined this kind of technology and if we think about this our grandparents are probably Amazed by the kinds of technologies that are around right now which means that when

we get older we're probably going to have our minds blown by the technology that's probably being developed at that time now he says that of course this phenomenon is not new but it will be newly accelerated essentially referring to the fact that every company right now is really trying to invest billions and billions of dollars into their AI infrastructure in order to get a piece of that AGI Pi it continues on to state that people have become dramatically more capable over time we can already accomplish things now that our predecessors would have believed to be impossible we are more capable not because of genetic change but because we benefit from the infrastructure of society being way smarter and more capable than any one of us in an important sense Society is itself a form of advanced intelligence our grandparents and the generations that came before them built and achieved great things and of course all of those things we can build on top of for the Next Generation that basically accelerates the Next Generation which is why technological progress it kind of goes like this in a graph kind of just like uh goes like this because uh each generation you know sets the stone for the next one and it's like uh I guess you could say exponential progress in a sense so he says right here that the story of progress will continue and our children will be able to do things that we can't and it won't happen all at once but soon we will be able to work with an AI that helps us accomplish much more than we ever could without AI eventually we can have a personal AI team full of virtual experts in different areas working together to create almost anything we can imagine so this is where we get into another prediction surrounding AI agents and what they're going to be able to do for us and I might as well not really say prediction they're essentially creating these products so I'm pretty sure that they know what's in the pipeline when you think about it this isn't a blog post by some futurist this is the guy who's at the head of the frontier Labs so when he says a team full of virtual experts in different areas working together to create almost anything we can imagine this sounds rather accurate as this actually refers to the leaked open AI internal document which they are using to track AI progress if we take a look at this we

can see that it was only recently that we had reasoners which are the human level problem solving with the strawberry model and of course the next big thing and I think that AI still isn't in the mainstream yet because we don't have this I think that this is going to be the magical moment when we actually have like an insane level of individuals that really start to get what AI is able to do and I think once we actually have that broadscale um area where we see that okay individuals are now starting to realize that AI is out there and it's performing things on our behalf that's when the acceleration is going to be truly incredible because it's quite like we're doubling SLT tripling the population of individuals that are working effectively and working non-stop 24/7 then of course this is where he says our children will have virtual tutors who can provide personalized instruction in any subject in any language at whatever Pace they need and I think this is one of the things that is widely underestimated because not only are students going to be able to learn a lot more personalized learning is I think in many cases a lot more effective because you can learn at your own speed at your own pace you've got one-on-one with someone that can you know explain Concepts to you but I think the fact that you know previously it was only certain individuals that could afford private shors but now we're going to get to an age where pretty much anyone is going to be able to afford their own private shoor perhaps just for $20 a month and they're going to be able to absorb as much knowledge as they want from pretty much any subject if you haven't already realized AI can break down complex Concepts and explain them to you in a way that is really easy to understand you can talk to it as many times as you want and it's not going to get upset frustrated it's not going to get tired it's going to be 100% completely understanding now I was thinking about this quite a lot and I was like okay this is actually pretty cool but we also need to think about the fact that like this isn't just for children we're not just going to have personalized tutors just for kids for those of you guys who are in The Working World in the business world you guys actually now have tutors that pretty much understand most advanced concepts and you're going to be able to use those tutors to perhaps Advance your career Advance your business and Advance your side hustle Prov provided you have the motivation to engage in lifelong learning I think you know previously of course you know you've always had to read a book or you know engage in certain educational traditional methods but I think this kind of you know learning is going to truly open up a new area for individuals that learn in a different kind of way and I think this is you know really exciting especially for those who want to move further on in life then of course it continues to state that we can imagine similar ideas for healthcare and the ability to create any kind of software somewhere can imagine so I think this first sentence right here is probably one of the most important ones if you didn't know in the UK alone and I think in America it's around two there's 200,000 deaths annually in U in the US OFA um where there are just medical errors and you can see that there are you know more than 200 million medication errors in the NHS per year which is you know researchers have realized which is pretty insane when you think about it and we think about like how traditional you know Healthcare systems are I think once everyone has access to a personal Healthcare agent that's able to you know coordinate with their doctors look at all of their vitals understand all of their medical history and really look at their health care in a personalized way in you know many different reasoning ways you know looking at 10,000 different outcomes for this person I think it's just going to be absolutely insane the type of medical health care that you get and I think the craziest thing about this is that this is not even going to be that expensive I think it's going to be really comprehensive and over time I think it's just going to become remarkably cheap and even when we look at the most recent models they've been excelling on Healthcare benchmarks so it's no doubt that this thing of you know ideas with AI for healthcare it's truly going to be better and of course this is one of the more positive things to come from AI now one of the things that we also have here as well is the ability to create software someone can imagine like any kind of and much more and this is something that people might not realize is slowly happening but there is a quiet Revolution going on in the software development space and this isn't a video about software developers are dead or gone or this no no this is just a small tidbit where I'm referring to the fact that there are companies out there building you know these kind of AI agents that are going to be able to build software that is quite personalized and I think this is going to be one of the largest shakes up the economy has seen because AI is able to create personalized software that is able to do many internal tasks for you so I'm wondering is this going to the SAS economy I mean there's many different implications for this because not only does it allow individuals to become more effective because they're able to develop their own pieces of software for personal per purposes but this is just something that's pretty crazy now take a look at this repli AI

agent because I was supposed to cover this but I unfortunately didn't get to but this is you know an AI agent that's able to literally do everything for you from start to finish all the way up until deployment and if we think about the fact that this is the early days how is this kind of Technology you go to be 10 years from now this is actually a prompt from a Ted AI talk I gave about 10 months ago about agents we didn't have the product back then but now let's test the real product with the same prompt make an app of local landmarks based on my location the agent uh presented me with a plan this plan is fully editable um I just want to add the ability to search one of the cool things about the progress pane is that you can learn what it's doing so we don't want this ever to be uh sort of obscuring uh what the agent is doing it should be fully transparent this could also be a great way to learn how to build things because the agent is sort of explaining itself as it's doing it that's the app see that's exactly the kind of landmarks I would expect to see in Foster City where we are recording this from it's awesome and so here you can give it feedback you can iterate with it you can give it more features but I'll just say yes it looks great cuz it works it's exactly what I asked for and now the agent will move to the next step and the next step uh is adding search we spent a lot of time uh building the plumbing for this a lot of what the agent is doing is actually doing the same kind of actions that you would do in the IDE it's editing the code in a similar way that you would edit it it's installing depencies using the same tools that we exposed to users so all the UI that you see in the repet you know and love uh is exposed to the agent so the agent is sort of a multiplier user in the same environment we're about to deploy to the cloud and when we deploy this app there's no difference between what we built here you don't have to configure a server do any of you don't have to configure a database all of that is configured for you when I had this idea I had it when I was traveling uh and that happened on my phone and actually I can start the project on my phone I actually finish pH my phone as well anytime you have an idea it doesn't have to be this fleeting idea you can just put it into repet and it start making it for you and then you know we got this initial prototype but I can also go and browse the code myself uh I can use uh you know repats llms or you can use your favorite llm the code is all yours it's there um and um uh and you can continue using the agent you can switch to repet AI you can do whatever you want with it you have full authority over the code that the agent just uh just created and there you have it uh repet agent uh created a repple configured the python environment install dependencies wrote the code all in two minutes and we got an app running that we were able to deploy to the cloud and now anyone can use it so this is a repet agent it's available in Early Access uh and would love your feedback thank you that is one of the things I always want to you know reiterate is that you know when you see and it looks pretty bad remember how bad mid Journey was remember how bad these images were remember how bad videos were I mean when we take a look at how crazy this kind of you know acceleration is we have to truly understand that okay this isn't slowing down now he says here that with these new abilities we can have shared prosperity to a degree that seems unimaginable in today's future I mean in the future and everyone's lives can be better than anyone's life is now Prosperity alone doesn't make people happy there are plenty of miserable rich people but it would meaningfully improve the lives of people around the world here is one narrow way to look at human history after thousands of years of compounding scientific discovery and technological progress we have figured out how to melt sand add some impurities and arrange it with astonishing Precision at extraordinarily tiny scale into computer chips run energy through it and end up with systems of creating increasingly capable artificial intelligence now this statement here is one of the funniest statements ever because there is a video from someone on YouTube and I think everyone should watch this to understand how crazy technology is it's a video that basically shows you how to get like a CPU um completely from scratch it's pretty funny I'm only going to play the first 10 seconds2 seconds of the clip but it's a video that I think is so important because when we see how technological innovations can push the boundaries of what we even thought is possible we kind of need to think about where we even came from and it's quite hard to Fathom so um yeah now here's the next thing okay it says this may turn out to be the most consequential fact about history so far so if you've been you know half asleep through this video please just pay attention to this part because I would say that this is probably the most important statement okay Sam mman says that it is possible and I didn't mean to do that we will have super intelligence in a few thousand days now of course he you know caveats it by saying it may take longer but I'm confident we will get there this statement is absolutely insane it is possible we will have super intelligence within a few thousand days now the first

implication for this statement that I immediately thought about is I didn't even think about super intelligence I was like hold on that means that AGI is most certainly coming a lot sooner than we think people and critics have always dismissed AI as some kind of distant pipe dream but this statement actually puts AGI in a new light if they are talking okay broadly about super intelligence which on the AI scale actually comes a lot further after AGI it means that AGI is almost certain or probably already achieved which actually leads me to think that we could get AGI by early 2026 or early 2027 which is not that far away which is only you know 2 years away which is pretty insane to think about and I think this also means that acceleration like I said before isn't slowing down if you remember a few months ago we did get a few articles that they was stating that look AI is slowing down deep learning hting a wall yada yada and I think I actually made a video with stating that look AI progress is not slowing down at all like you guys have it wrong and I try to explain to you all that just because we're not seeing a thousand new models every single day it doesn't mean that AI is slowing down these people are making remarkable discoveries internally and this is just truly accelerating the entire AI progress and you have to understand that things are only going to get faster from here on out open AI kicked off the race to AGI and it's only a matter of time before the world is inevitably changed now after I thought that okay look AGI is clearly within the next one to two years because if they are broadly talking about super intelligence is clearly here we have to think that okay that means that they certainly did see something okay and that leads us back to the infamous quote what did Ilia SATA see now ilas satk has a new company called you know safe superintelligence and I think that means that this state now holds a lot more weight the statement that super intelligence is Within Reach is it like Echoes now it feels a lot more uh I guess you could say pronounced because Sam Alman is stating that look we're only going to have it in a few thousand days which means that ilaser probably has identified the path whether it be this reinforcement learning with Chain of Thought or you know that qar thing I think that showed them that all they need is more compute and then they will probably get there there's a million videos on deep Dives and stuff and I'll leave a link down to all of that stuff

but I think it's quite important to understand that right now the bottlenecks aren't really in actually figuring out how the technology works but just getting the energy and the compute to actually you know power this kind of stuff which is quite crazy and when we think about the super intelligence I always like to refer to the you know document situational awareness which is where it says it's strikingly plausible that we'd go from AGI to Super intelligence very quickly perhaps in one year and I think that uh this kind of statement is not to be messed around with because this is of course from a former open AI employee and I think this graph where you see that of course we have an automated AI researcher and then over time things start to exponentially increase with of course science technology robots military Edge GDP all of these things are just going to completely explode I think that the future is just it's actually you know so unpredictable that it's incredible I mean it's just you know incredible and the worst thing about this is that I remember so many individuals were stating that oh this guy all he did was draw a few straight lines on a graph and now he's claiming that he knows the future I mean the thing is that when we actually take a look at who Leopold Ashen brener is he's someone that's not some random person he is someone that literally worked on the front lines for aligning super intelligent AI with the legendary Ilia SATA at open AI so if we aren't listening to people like him on the future of AI who is it that we're going to be listening to I mean I I truly don't understand and the crazy thing about this is that across the consensus in terms of predictions for future developments and you know inflection points and turning points it's a consistent 2027 to 2030 that we get this you know future world that's going to be drastically different than the one we are in now what's crazy about this is that he then says how did we get to the doorstep of the next leap in prosperity in three words deep learning worked in 15 got predictably better with scale and we dedicated increase ing resources to it so I think this one is really cool because of course we can see that he's speaking about of course the technology which showed us that look all we need is more data better algorithms more computes more scale and we can do incredible things he says that's really

it humanist discovered an algorithm that could truly learn any distribution of data or really the underlying rules that produce any distribution of the to a shocking degree of precision the more comput and data available the better it gets at helping people solve hard problems and I find that no matter how much time I spend thinking about this I can never really internalize how consequential this is now for me the super intelligence thing it wasn't the craziest thing this was the craziest thing for me um was that he said although it will happen incrementally astounding triumphs fixing the climate establishing a space colony and the discovery of all physics eventually will become common place I don't think people truly understand what this statement mean the discovery of all physics will be eventually become common place guys do you remember what

happened once we discovered a few laws of physics we were able to like fly guys like that's insane like sometimes I still see planes and I'm still like this thing makes no sense you know it would look like magic to people you know 200 years ago look like absolute like our phones and stuff like that so once we're able to figure out you know a few things there's only a few like bottlenecks and like once we you know discover them like they just it just remarkably changes how the future is in terms of the entire fields that we're going to be in the entire you know the way the world works I mean like if you try to explain current Society to someone 250 years ago it's like it's it's quite hard you know to Fathom the smartphone the internet the connectedness the travel the I mean I don't know my mind's getting kind of blown by like trying to explain all of this but I think the discovery of all physics I mean I can truly understand how it happens I mean I think once you have an automated AI researcher that's able to truly like get all the context from every single research paper and just research in certain areas 24/7 and we're able to just duplicate that like a million different times we're going to be able to condense you know years of scientific research down to you know pretty much a few years or even a few months once the compute becomes available so I think it's going to be really incredible to see that kind of progress happening in our lifetime now of course there is no good without bad and samman talks about here he says as we've seen with other Technologies there will also be downsides and we need to start working now to maximize ai's benefits while minimizing its harm as one example we

expect that this technology can cause significant change in labor markets good or bad and in the coming years but most jobs will change more slowly than people think and I have no fear that we'll run out of things to do even if they don't look like real jobs to us today people have an innate desire to create and to be useful to each other and AI will allow us to amplify our own abilities like never before as a society we will be back in an expanding world and we can once again Focus on playing positive some games now I think it's always good to talk about you know bad things that are going to happen of course the job market is going to be pretty insane once AI you know eats around like I think you know it's going to affect like 60% of all jobs around the world and I think it's going to be quite kind there going to be a weird period where people just don't have a job like you know a lot of people and it's going to be like really weird the economy is definitely going to change is something that I talk about in my community how you can you know most certainly take advantage of this transition because it's definitely going to be a transition period and you know there's going to be some winners and some losers and I think I would a lot rather be on the winner side and if you're in AI um you're definitely early like you're really early I think the only time you're going to be late to this place is if you are um you know only you know taking action in the next two to three years because once we get agents the general public is going to truly understand what AI is able to do so I think that is of course something to discuss but what was crazy okay and I saw this on Twitter and once again I'm not like an AI safety person but I do think this is kind of interesting and I think it I think it's worth while to be mentioned okay someone um you know referenced the fact that Sam alman's blog from 2015 is a little bit different to the one from 2024 samman says that development of superhuman M machine intelligence is probably the greatest step to the continued existence of su of humanity and then in 2024 he says this technology

can cause a significant change in labor markets good and bad but most jobs will change you know more than people think okay so this you know tweet is basically saying that look before he was tweeting about super intelligence now he was stating that it was dangerous and now he's stating that this is a good thing that his company's there I think either it's one or two things I think either one we have the sense that you know maybe they've solved the interpretability problem which is where they truly understand what's going on in AI I'm not so sure of that because I think that that's quite hard and that would require incredible breakthroughs I don't think that it's you know possible I just think that it's really hard especially with something that's smarter than you or I think it's the second issue which is probably more reasonable is that they might just be avoid voiding this kind of you know AI safety thing because they are raising money again at a huge valuation so I think they're trying to avoid anything that could reduce that valuation and you know scare off investors and I mean um if you've

seen the recent funding round it's been absolutely incredible open air has been flooded with investors um and they've had to put in like $250 million minimum you can see here it says investors pile into open AI 6 billion funding round in unprecedented bet so this is really incredible like I can't like I mean I'm not going to Li guys if I had that kind of money I certainly would be piling it into open AI because they are about to eat like you know just billions and trillions of dollars uh so I think it's going to be incredible so with that being said let me know what you think about this document I know I was going to make a video on this yesterday but unfortunately my voice just disappeared so if you guys did enjoy the video I will see you all in the next one