AI News: AGI Is Closer Than You Think! Opus BEATS GPT-4o World Spirals into Doomerism, GeminiLEAKS

so with an actually crazy week in AI here are some of the stories that you maybe did Miss now one of the stories I actually did want to talk about was this so someone posted on Twitter the llm ranking and I think the llm ranking is probably one of the most discussed things because it kind of shows us what company is at the frontier in terms of AI capabilities and with these large language models or now you know large multimodal models I guess we can see where they are but this was really interesting because if you don't know this is the ranking on the MML U but the problem is that the MML U is essentially a part of how these large language models and AI systems are graded and the thing is that the MML U has issues now on the LM ranking the MML U calculated by an actually independent third party Stanford calculates the helm MML U that uses simple standardized prompt resulting in fair reproducible comparison of models and essentially these numbers are uniformly below what the various companies have reported in the past and I think it's important to actually have third parties do this because it's like saying um I'm going to investigate myself and then I'm going to give you guys the results on what that is of course I'm always going to say that the results that I've got are better than everyone else's because it simply makes sense to do that and I think what's important to see here is that Claude Opus actually inches out GPT 4 and even their most recent model not by a large margin it's literally just a percent of a percent if you even look at it like this is 0. 842 this is 0. 8 46 so it's not even a huge deal but I think it is important because it shows us that what we're seeing here is that what companies are reporting might not match up to what independent investigations are seeing now of course some people are going to say that mmu is just only one Benchmark you've got you know math you've got gsmk you've got coding you've got all these other crazy things that you can Benchmark an AI on and of course people are going to say that why not just look at the arena because that is where people actually get to interact with an AI system uh and stuff like this doesn't matter of course the arena is an area where you can actually get you know data on whatever you think is relevant depending on whichever company is going to be the best at the time for the actual user on a day-to-day basis in these blind tests but I think it's important that like other companies do this a lot more because the MMO already there's like 3% of the questions that just don't make sense so that's a big issue because we know that 3% can be the difference between a model being class to state-ofthe-art and a model not being class to state the art so I think this shows us that Claude is better than we think and that gp40 might not be as good as we think but at the same time I do think the arena is good but I do know that there could be the potential for some I wouldn't say um things going wrong there but I I did see a few tweets about a few Shady things going on there I didn't you know follow up on that but um I think you know third party valuation is always important uh and I will leave a link uh to where you can actually view this the helm MML um and you can see right here Claude GPT 4 and then all of these um other different models here and I mean maybe this is going to be good you know so that you can like look around where the models are really good at um in an unbiased way because these you know independent third party researchers don't have any bias towards any of these companies unless they were like paid a lot to do that um but yeah I mean it's pretty uh pretty interesting on uh the kind of results that we're seeing here now this is

something that I really did want to talk about um and this is the form of a certain aspect of AI news that is something that the general population might not realize but a small subset of the population who are engaged with the ey might start to take this take so this person said for the record I'm currently at 70% they were all dead in 10 to 15 years from AI I've stopped saving for retirement and I've increased my spending and the amount of long-term health risks I'm taking now some people would say that this is just you know being hyper just sarcasm she's being like extreme just trying to get reaction out of people and it certainly did but I do know that like the sentiment that I've seen change is one that has changed over the last year and a half as I've seen comments on my channel as I've seen people in the you know comments on Reddit I've seen people like stop caring about a lot of stuff like I've seen people you know like the mentality has changed because a lot of people are starting to realize that look okay if AGI or artificial super intelligence is going to be here I'm meaningless I'm just a c in the wheel it's going to be smarter than me faster than me there's going to be companies that are just going to be completely run by AIS you know I've got no way to a work you know what on Earth am I going to do and a lot of people are saying that you know I stopped saving for retirement because at the end of it we're all going to be dead anyways now that is what you call a dorest defeatist mindset and I would urge any of you who are watching the channel to not at all take into any consideration what this tweet is saying because if this is something that is you know perpetuated uh you know like consistently along social media and there's some kind of movement that's going on I truly do believe that this is the wrong take because on the other side you do have this post abundance world and whilst yes you can fluctuate between dystopia and abundance I think it's important to put yourself in the best position right now if you're in the AI community and if you're someone that's actively paying attention you have to understand that 90% of the world isn't really and when I say really I mean really paying attention to the day-by-day updates look at the videos on this channel it gets between sometimes 15,000 to 20,000 30,000 views on a video what that means is that if that's the amount of people and I'm not saying that I'm the barometer of how many people are paying attention but if you look at how many people are actively using AI trying to understand Ai and how it's going to impact their industry it's not as much people as you think which means that if you do take action now to sort of you know protect your future and actually be someone who benefits from AI the future isn't going to be Bleak I mean of course you've got this say AI safety debate and I've said to people time on again there's nothing we can do unless you are an actively an AI you know safety researcher the most you can really do is sign a few petitions retweet a few things but there's nothing you can really do to hope these companies are doing their best they can do in AI safety it's up to the people who are actively in these companies and the billionaires who are investing in these companies to ensure that some of the money that they're investing some of the compute they using is going towards AI safety there's literally nothing you can do so why worry about it because worst thing that could happen is that post abundance does come here and of course in a few years you don't have money you haven't saved for retirement you've got some you know chronic health issue that just makes your life worse so even now that the economy shifted you can't adapt like just trust me guys just don't take this thing right here because whilst yes I understand why people are doing this it is just so defeatist and I think that right now it's probably the biggest opportunity for anyone in the space so as long as you're in the space you can you know join communities I have my own private Community you know it's a link in the description it's just a patreon where we like literally focus on how to better ourselves for the Post AGI world and honestly it just makes me a lot more excited for the future because I seeing all of the capabilities and all of the different nooks and crannies where there's just vast opportunities for the taking because entire Industries are being built right now so I know that this was just a quick rant but it's important to just not take this into account because it's just way too extremely negative my na conception when we started is that we would like get to

a moment where we didn't have AGI then we did and it would be a real discontinuity and I still think there's some chance of a real discontinuity but on the whole I think it's going to look much more like a continuous exponential curve where what matters is the pace of progress year over year and you and I will probably not agree on the month or even the year that we're like okay now that's AGI we can come up with other tests that we will agree with but even that is harder than it sounds and you know gb4 is definitely not over a threshold that I think almost anyone would call an AGI and I don't expect our next big model to be either but I can imagine that like only maybe one or two or some small number of ideas away and a little bit more scale from something we're like this is now kind of different so this was an interview clip from Sam alman's recent interview where he basically talks about how he thinks with regards to AGI there's only around two or three major breakthroughs left and I mean like he's previously stated before I think it's going to be uh interesting to see how that scale changes year over year because every year we're going to get increasing basically increasingly more capable systems and increasingly more capable Frontier models from all of the competing companies and I think it's going to be hard to determine at that point where we do have AGI and I think recently with GPT 40 someone recently said this is essentially AGI because you know you can talk to it you know it can laugh it can speak it can giggle it can change its inations which I just I honestly found just completely crazy and the worst thing is that literally two weeks before that where I spoke about how you know these these uh models like the way they speak is just so monotone and even that you could always know that it's a you know basically an AI system I basically said that you know like the way how I sometimes I speed up speed up and then sometimes I slow down to keep people interested I said that AI systems wouldn't be able to do that and then literally two weeks later we got the fler demo and that was something that uh just upended one of my predictions which goes to show that you know uh this thing is moving pretty quickly but the point is that every single year there's going to be increasing capabilities and I think it's you know important to remember that when samman talks about AGI he doesn't talk about like uh you know AI in a traditional sense of an AI being able to embody robot and clean the dishes he talks about an AI That's literally able to do autonomous research in an AI field that's rather effective that was his personal definition so when he's talking about AGI that will be his personal definition so I think maybe he's talking in terms of that time frame there might be two or three more breakthroughs before they get to that area but um I'm excited to see what they have with the next Frontier of models so this is where something actually missed me and I was like okay this is pretty crazy so it says gb40 was a whole team of it huge credit to especially fulla because he's

the head of omni but what he said that was actually rather interesting was he said um you know this took course over the past 18 months which is pretty incredible guys because what that means is that they were working on this for the for 18 months which means they've been working on this since 2022 which is pretty crazy okay like that is uh pretty insane and I think that shows us just how big of a lead opening ey does have because if they're able to demo something um that's this crazy I mean you can just imagine the kind of projects and things that they're working on now whilst yes there will be some failures successes I think it's important to realize just how far ahead they are because I mean 18 months guys like literally if we look at the pace of AI Innovation over 18 months like I mean I'm guessing that this was obviously very hard to do because you know if you look at some of the other capabilities that were um you know shown in the paper that I actually did a video on where I spoke about you know GPT 4 O's Secret capabilities I think it's important to realize that like this here is just absolutely insane that this has been going on for the past 18 months and the fact that they're only iteratively releasing some of this stuff goes to show like I said before um when I spoke about you know llms and stuff and AI just slowing down essentially what I meant was things are slowing down externally but not internally meaning that you know these teams are having their in like internal you know research projects that I just keep going because the problem is that like I said before opening eye doesn't you know they no longer publish their research they no longer come up with demos that are I guess you could say no longer profitable in terms of a business standpoint because now they're private company anytime they have research that could Advance the company in a proprietary way which you know they need to do because they're competing with Google and of course anthropic for customers and you know market share they're not going to publish that they're just going to keep that to themselves and they're going to you know extend a lead which they already have which is I think it's important to note that like opening I just so far ahead uh and 18 months just shows you uh where we could be in the next 18 months so I think important to uh just remember this cuz I didn't see this and I thought that was uh pretty crazy also there was a GPT 4

generated image and this is photo realism if I see it I remember previously we looked at Mid journey and how Snapchat Raw photos were really photo realistic but this is a GPT 4 o generated image so much to explore with GPT 40's image capabilities alone team is working hard to bring those to the world so yeah like I spoke about ages ago I said that you know the new model whichever one it was going to be we're going to get an even more updated version because if you haven't seen already even if you use image Generation Now compared to two months ago there's a new version of Dar I don't know if it's Dar 3 fine tuned or what whatever it is but it is better than what we had before um it just seems more consistent in what it's able to do but this is GPT 40's image generation model which isn't in the model yet but from this we can see something that looks remarkably photo realistic in terms of you know the drawings um and the text which I think is really important just I mean maybe this image is uh you know Cherry Picked but I think that this goes to show like I said before gbt 40 is probably one of the most important models because I think once different markets start to realize what they can use 404 then that's when open AI is going to be expanded to the mass Market because I know that I have you know a few people that if I show if I were to show them the 40 demo they'd completely freak out and if I were to you know give some people the 40 demo in real life they would certainly be like I'm going to use this every single day so um it's pretty pretty crazy I mean uh I'm sure kids are going to love it I'm sure the elderly I mean you know the amount of Industries private tutoring just lessons I mean there there's a whole range of different things that you could use this for and I can't imagine what the API is going to be like as well so um there was also another um piece of

information so as you know I'm not going to talk about people leaving open eye but this person says I'll be leaving open ey after three and a half years I'll be joining my good friend Andy Barry Boston Dynamics and Pete Florence and Andy Zen at Deep Mind on a brand new initiative and their initiative is that is what they think will be fully necessary to fully realize AGI in the world and I'm excited to share more about it soon so basically he's stating that um what they want to do is they want to fully realize AGI in the real world then the humanoid Hub is a very good account for you know anything humanoid robotic so I recommend giving this account a follow um and basically you know you can see that they have a very very stacked resume in terms of what they've done so um something that I'm going to speak about in another video is how like you know uh all of these researchers a lot of them are leaving like big companies to go start their own things um and I think it's kind of interesting because we get this like Dynamic landscape where new companies are being formed big companies are shrinking and changing and the landscape is just you know so uh different but I'm guessing they might be targeting embodied AGI maybe they figured out something maybe they're going to combine their talents but whatever it is I'm excited for it I'm guessing maybe they're going to be raising money I have no idea but I think it's important to you know keep these updates here because um they're going to be sharing more soon so if you want to give us account of follow um you know I'll leave a link in the description or his you know Twitter account is just eom I'm not sure what character that is but and of

course with uh you know talking about someone leaving open AI to go build robots um if you didn't watch the previous video open AI is I wouldn't say it's in tatas cuz it's not but it's a bit strange because people are leaving and the people that are leaving SL getting fired are all to do with AI safety we can see that Janik Ilia satova concerned safety researcher leaves um and I don't think it's good because it's not like they were just standard Safety Research these guys were working on Super l and I spoke about that in the previous video which means that super alignment is either solved or super alignment just has a big issue that you know we can't really talk about I mean either way like I really don't know what's going on I did make a 40-minute video so you guys can watch that but the point is that this doesn't look too good in terms of AI safety because the Su like the bottom line of that video is basically like super alignment team is gone not entirely but like half of the initial team is gone and with that they're like the key founding members like IL seta is regarded as one of the smartest people in terms of AI Jan L was also the lead of the team and he's now gone and then two other people on that team were fired okay so they were fired for apparently you know leaking information so the point is that open I since haven't you know on the super Line blog they haven't posted any updates since then and since he resigned and Ilia resigned it brings us to the question you know what on Earth is going on with super alignment do you guys figure it out did you guys figure out you know how to make an automated alignment researcher because that was essentially the goal of super alignment so um is this trend going to continue but an update would be nice because uh you know for the AI safety folks who are always saying that you know AI safety isn't you know this big thing like they do have a real point now because if your safety team like half of them like five of them five out of the 12 I don't know how many people are there right now and you guys haven't posted any updates I mean you know they're going to be asking questions so um it's a bit

weird so this thread here that we can see is basically one that highlights some of samman's uh opinions and some of his thoughts ramblings on what he thinks generative Ai and just AI in general is going and this was actually an ask me anything he did on Reddit so if you don't know Reddit is a social networking place I guess you could say it's like a forum I don't know however you want to describe it the point is that he did something where people can literally ask him any question and these were some of the highlights from that so he said when is your prediction that a fully generated AI film uh is going to outperform human efforts at the box office and he said I don't think this is the most important question the most important thing that he's excited about are new kinds of entertainment that will be possible so imagine a movie that is a little different each time that you can interact with I believe that human creativity will remain super important and that humans will want know what other humans want and care about and to make so that is an important Point like I've said before if you want to you know remain relevant one of the key things that you have to understand is what humans want and what it means to be human I know it sounds really basic like we're human of course we know what it means to be human I don't think people do I think people realize that like and people forget that like humans want human connection they want you know the social aspect the stat to suspect like all of the things what Drive humans intrinsically I think if you look into that psychology on what that is then you can use that information to kind of like predict what industries are going to remain relevant regardless of how powerful AI gets because whil yes it is kind of hard to predict but I think as long as you can understand what skills like for example you know like if you're trying to sell something to someone like talking to an actual person who's selling you the product is going to be a lot more like for example on YouTube I know that you know uh I always want to be in the videos and actually making the vide because the human to human connection is a lot more valuable than you just hearing like an AI generated script and an AI generated voice uh and an editor you know piecing a few things together that didn't even care about AI like that's why I'm saying that if you can pay attention to what humans will kind of value in the near shortterm to long term you can position yourself in not a bad way now I think one of the biggest predictions here and this is what I'm you know I talk about a lot on the post AGI private Community basically um he basically said that AI will cause the price of work that can happen in front of a computer to decrease much faster than the price of work that happens in the physical world this is the opposite for what most people including me have expected and this will have strange effects and he still believes in this prediction now why is this something I'm talking about in this video because I don't know what you know what the demographic is of you know what your career is or where you work but I think that is an important distinction to make because in the future and that leads to short term before AGI is embodied we are going to see you know whatever it is being done on a computer and this is literally anything the price of that task will drop like that is something that you can know and you're hearing right now so with that information okay you at least need to be like okay if that information is real what am I going to do in my scenario and how can I act and position myself so I'm not completely uh screwed when this you know strange effects start to occur because stuff like this a lot of people are only going to be like at the last minute going like hey wait I used to be able to make this much amount of doing this a computer and now I don't make this much like for example um it's like if you were a writer and you heard about gbt 3 and you knew that gbt 3. 5 was coming out in gbt 4 you might not have pursued a career in certain areas because of these tools coming that's the point I'm trying to make is that like you can predict kind of where things are kind of go and I think it's going to be strange how the economy operates when you know people that are doing in physical labor do have like I guess you could say a longer career than some people who are in you know desk job you know white color versus blue color it's really going to be just a strange time so it's important to understand that there and I'm not saying you know your software engineering career and go become a plumber I'm just saying that uh stuff is about to get weird and it's important to you know see how you can you know put yourself in a position where you're less automatable because I don't think anyone wants to be out of a job and recently I was actually watching

a few videos on where uh well this guy where he lost his job to Ai and he actually spoke about how like he lost his job to AI due to graphic design but you know if you watch the video if he was someone that actually paid attention to the AI space and paid attention to certain things I I'm 100% sure that he would have been able to use certain AI tools get his work done a lot faster he would have you know applied to certain jobs certain careers maybe shifted um but he was someone that it's not his fault okay I'm not saying that this is this guy's fault at all okay but the point I'm trying to make is that you who are watching this video now you're in a very privileged position because if you're passionate about Ai and you like this stuff it means that you know whatever career you're in you're going to be able to see things before other people are and it gives you a strategic Advantage I can guarantee you if this guy was keeping up to date with all the generative AI tools and all the updates uh on whatever Channel it may be um he probably wouldn't have been in this position and that's not like you know haha you didn't know it's just something that I'm like guys if you're here okay good okay that's good for you but other people are just you know not paying attention and they don't know what they don't know so the point is that like you know it's important to pay attention to the industry because it's really going to impact a lot of stuff and as long as you know what the impacts are going to be you can position yourself best like for example he could have maybe applied to more jobs you know tried to switch roles you know started taking certain courses um and it's just better because you know he just got short notice saying that he was made redundant uh and I'm sure that a lot of people in the coming years are going to be you know unfortunately going through that so it's best to start to think about you know some of the you know short-term Solutions and some of the long-term solutions to those kind of problems now Google is actually also preparing the release of a memory feature and what's crazy is that I did see this kind of leak before the O IO update but there wasn't anything after this so it was a bit weird that they didn't release this memory update um and I'm guessing that maybe this is going to be an update that's coming in the next two weeks so hopefully when this happens like I'm hoping that this is out in the EU as well because I know that the EU doesn't get a lot of features currently so I'm just waiting to see if this one is going to actually happen so that is something I'm patiently waiting on because I know that people that live in a UK live in the EU there are cool features but we don't get them yet we just get them super late which is kind of frustrating especially if your goal is trying to create actually good um content we also had improvements to data analysis in chat GPT it says interact with table charts and AD files directly from Google Drive and Microsoft One drive this is something that you can kind of do right now I did a tutorial yesterday about how you can actually do that and it says today we're rolling out enhancement data analysis upload latest file versions directly from drive and Microsoft One Drive interact with tables in a new expandable view you can see right here how it's changing this looks really really nice customize and download chancef for presentations and documents and uh like stuff like this is like you know I'm sure this is going to affect a lot of jobs it's going to make you a lot more efficient so I would say you know try and learn this take on take it all on board um and if this is part of your career part of your work just be a lot more effent like try to get twice the work done in as much less time as you can because uh you know when they're looking around for the next layoffs you want to be like a super employee that like you know is one that doesn't get layoffs in fact you know some that moves up in the company so with this stuff kind of here um I'm guaranteeing that most people are going to use it for work but it's a small update but you know it deployment y yada but yeah if you guys did enjoy today's video don't forget leave a like subscribe all the good stuff and I'll see you guys in the next one