This Social Network Has Underpriced Attention In 2023 l Fireside Chat

today the underpriced attention is 1998 Wine Library my dad's liquor store had 150 000 people on its email newsletter and had 91. 3 open rates Google AdWords when they came out I bought every wine term people forget but they were five cents floor for about eight months or so before 10 cents became the floor and literally I owned every word from wine itself to Silver Oak to Chateau lafe and I was able to build a very large business for my dad with very little Capital because I was able to understand where the underpriced attention was and I was able to understand how to fill that underpriced attention with the creative

yeah great to have you here Gary it is uh truly an honor for me personally I don't know if you remember I think we brought it up for probably not in a long time about 15 years ago when you had my library and my brother and I we're starting our alcohol brand Thief not to be confused with v but we could have been Partners maybe back then uh we reached out to you and so uh it's an honor to share a stage with you and come a long way since a couple adult beverage guys congrats on everything thank you it's really nice to be with everybody um you know for the last panel but one of the things that I really have always respected a ton about you is the kind of the grit and the hustle and it doesn't have to be burned out but for the last panel it was really interesting I kind of think that those are some of the quality qualities um that I think you know you're really embody so anyways moving to the Future what are kind of Industries or areas that you think are really going to be disrupted in the next five years like what will surprise us or what do you think no one kind of sees coming right now you know it's ironic given you know the makeup of the room in here I actually think which is unusual by standards of the last two decades I think almost no one here is going to be surprised about the disruption in the next five years because I think the aggressiveness of how big the technology and movement of AI is would I'd be shocked if people here would be surprised that literally everything is in play to be disrupted given the nature of how large this Innovation is I think this moment that I think we're in is a little bit more similar to the late 90s early 2000s when it was obvious if you were paying attention or in a room like this with the kind of people that are in this room that this internet thing was really going to disrupt everything I think the question becomes timing when I hear the five-year question it's not what's going to be disrupted the answer is everything it's in what pattern right bookstores were just really unlucky first and then people that owned medallions on cabs 15 20 years later so I think for a lot of us in this room it's an interesting time to navigate our decisions and our opportunity costs and our investments and what we want to get into because there is just a lot going on not only the acceleration of Technologies we've been waiting for or aware of there's many people here I remember four or five years ago looking at a lot of AI companies and even with my slightly solid somewhat dangerous understanding of technology I realized half of them were really just apis being put together and were Bozo or maybe on a good day some ml stuff but not really there and then here we are and this is the year where you're really seeing stuff you're like this is what we were talking about six seven years ago so I think you know I think that I think look just things I think everyone should be thinking about here I was born in the former Soviet Union what there's a lot to that but I think one of the things that it reminds me of is like people in the 50s 60s and 70s around the world didn't go to all the places around the world like if you're An American in 1972 like you weren't going to Yugoslavia like you weren't and I think we have a major rise of nationalism and geopolitics and bricks and the US dollar and this and so I think another thing that will become more clear over the next five years is like the world's changing in front of us and that's going to impact the way we make investing decisions and life decisions so I guess to answer your question I think everything is in play and that makes it harder or more exciting depending on where everyone here is in their cycle

well on that note as a master of the medium um how do you kind of see social media evolving in the next decade you know it's funny you know I I'm not really that obsessed or overly emotional about the concept of social media in the way that I think maybe some would think if they've even spent the second paying attention to what I'm up to I'm obsessed and focused on the concept of where attention is you know so if I started my marketing firm in the late 90s we would have been in email marketing Google AdWords company right you know it's actually really fun visually I'm seeing two of the more handsome men in the room Tim Armstrong and Ben Lear one was very prolific in email and Google ads and that would have been my firm in 2000 because I knew that was underpriced attention for some of the ogs in this room in 1998 Wine Library my dad's liquor store had 150 000 people on its email newsletter and had 91. 3 open rates when Ben started to realist there was no chance he could achieve that because the medium of consumer Behavior had shifted and marketers like myself had ruined email for other people and they could never achieve those numbers Google AdWords when they came out I bought every wine term people forget but they were five cents floor for about eight months or so before 10 cents became the Florin literally I owned every word from wine itself to Silver Oak to Chateau lafe and I was able to build a very large business for my dad with very little Capital because I was able to understand where the underpriced attention was and I was able to understand how to fill that underpriced attention with the creative whether that was the copywriting back then today the underpriced attention is Facebook reels right this second as we sit here right this second scaled underpriced attention to Market in America and many parts of the world sits on Facebook reels the amount of people talking about Facebook reels is like seven

and so just to clarify when you say the Facebook reels you mean Instagram reels I sure don't just clarify it um I sent the company-wide email the other day which I rarely do but I'm like I need everybody to get focused on Facebook reels immediately literally half my company emailed me back they're like I don't even have Facebook because I have so many people under 26 and I was literally it was quite enjoyable to reply back to them like you know how you've been [ __ ] on everyone for not knowing Tick Tock well now they're gonna [ __ ] on you and so you know I think for me what do I think about the next 10 years I think it'd be stunning if we didn't have a decentralized social network at scale in 10 years I think that's a elephant in the room that would be really interesting to see I think you know I think with AI and deep fake and all the stuff that we're about to deal with I think decentralized servers web 3 is about to really start showing people its value improving Providence I think we're all very aware of people's cynicism and politics that come along with centralized social networks so even with blue sky and what jacks up to like I think it'd be shocking if in 10 years we don't have a decentralized social network that's successful I'd be surprised if two or three more snap or tick tocks didn't come along I think I view social networks kind of like I view very successful TV shows like Seinfeld or you know SNL which is having a long run like they're going to be platforms that come out that have 7 10 12 year runs but then like nightlife like a club or a restaurant can only stay so hot for so long because the next Generation kind of wants their own place so I think when I hear that question I think over the next five to ten years you'll see another emerge because gen Alpha is gonna need their spot and they're going to make fun of tick tock the way the tick tock generation made fun of Instagram the way the Instagram Facebook so I think there'll be two to three other places and in the first 24 to 48 months of that platform there'll be an enormous opportunity for every person in this room regardless of what they want to achieve at that point people here may want to run for office raise capital for a non-profit start a new business build a personal brand whatever it may be in that 24 to 48 months there'll be an opportunity to outflank and I think what continues to happen in my professional life The Fortune 500 advertising landscape is the biggest brands in the world that spend the most money are incredibly slow because they run on fake reports and so they don't know how to justify the ROI of new platforms that will continue to be the Arbitrage until that world changes and I don't see that changing very quickly and so that's where a lot of opportunity for all of us continues to be and so those are some of the nuances I expect yeah

um this is what your I think you answer my next two questions already I was going to ask where the market dollars will go you gave us the Facebook reels tip um and I was going to ask but maybe but there's a lot of them to just add more value to the art like spotify's biddable product where you can just literally record on your memos a radio ad and place it on spotify's free product is a crazy underpriced attention execution at scale influencers can be a crazy place where you waste money but it can be the greatest place to buy underpriced even traditional mediums outdoor Billboards when you don't buy them on contract you buy them Remnant when they're available for two months in between two contracts for a remarkable Arbitrage on getting attention for what you want versus what you pay for so you know I think the more this room can think about day trading attention that this is not a set it and forget it it's the way it is it's a constant moving variable I think that can service people well because at the end of the day regardless of what anyone is doing in this room the one thing I'm sure of that connects everyone is you're trying to find mediums to let people know about it so they do the thing you want them to do whether you throw a conference whether make videos like the punch line of everything is nothing that anyone here wants to accomplish is achievable without other people knowing about it and acting on it and so to me what was clear 15 years ago was technology was going to commoditize a whole lot of things except the ability to be a contemporary communicator and that whomever was best at being a contemporary Communicator at scale would have a lot of Leverage and that's why I've been eating [ __ ] for 13 years building an agency because it's really just a front for what I'm up to which is world domination I don't even know how we build on that

but I have lots of thoughts on how they're the things that you can't replicate over there some of the things you're talking about contemporary communication real relationships but um you've given us some really interesting things to focus on I'm gonna try and trick you up here what is something worth not investing in kind of coming up in the next cycle or two whether it's an actual monetary investment or more an investment of time well I think the thing I'm talking about is being great at communicating today I think what's very obvious in my corporate world is that people are obsessed with yesterday they still want to do a television ad as if anyone on Earth watches them and by the way just to give me context 80 billion dollars worth of media being bought for television network and cable ads let alone the money that's being spent on making the ads I think the place this kind of room gets kicked up on is why last year in the hype of nfts and the things that were happening the place where I was trying to stop a lot of friends were going to was the metaverse because the humans weren't there this room this energy this DNA doesn't get caught up on believing in yesterday it is believing in tomorrow too soon so the place not worry the place not to invest in is we are aware that these Technologies are in place but pay attention to what the consumer is actually doing versus a what you'd like them to do because you wrote a check which is just a killer and I appreciate the reaction from several of you the place that is just so obvious to me is like you wrote a check and now you want it to be true it's much better to be thoughtful before you write the check if it is true and I think when you list the things that I've invested in I became a worse investor over time in the beginning when I was writing checks all I was doing was based on like oh this is happening now and like people don't see it and then over time you make a bunch of good Investments you get fancy and you think you're good at something and I had to recalibrate back and now I try to if I'm writing a check it's like it's actually happening not it might happen it could happen and so you know people are going to get caught on VR being too early a lot of things the other thing is people get caught up in headlines and they're not actually educated in the craft I am uncomfortably bullish on I think of AI Like Oxygen it's done it's a foregone conclusion and I'm putting in a ton of work to understand it but I've been very patient in writing checks because it's no different than when I was bullish on social networks when I saw the Myspace thing I don't know if a lot of you I mean looking at the crowd and knowing some faces here you'll remember it wasn't Myspace in Facebook it was Myspace Facebook orchid in Brazil Tim um you know it was high five it was tag world we had Niche social networks everybody remember dogster we needed a Social Network for our dogs like you know and so what's gonna happen right now is over the next 24 months the enormous amount of checks and money and time and energy people are going to put into AI companies where the decision maker a doesn't even understand the technology as well as they'd like to think and B doesn't realize that almost all of them are commoditized and that the people that are actually going to win are going to be far more based on the operators that drive the car than the car that they're building and so I would say that people need to be very thoughtful during this next half decade because there's a lot of new really substantial Technologies but just because it's happening doesn't mean it's going to work out it's similar to why in the height last year of nfts I started going completely the other way and making videos saying 99 of these things are going to zero the macro of an nft is right but the individual projects weren't no different than sports cards or just talking like sports cards or art are good Investments the problem is for the 7 to 50 people that in this town 80 years ago that were smart and bought Jackson Pollock there was thousands of other people that bought Jackson schmalek and lost a ton of money like yeah Michael Jordan's rookie card is worth a lot of money but 99 of athletes are not 99 of AI startups are going to fail and so I think people need to be thoughtful I didn't need to get more

specific I've literally had a friend come to me 10 years ago we need to invest in water it's the future of course it is but it's water just like is that's exactly right and but I think you know like this is where we get caught even when we're seasoned and good we get excited you're like oh I like this I like I know this space is happening just have to be in times like this especially and I'm sure people have noticed this the speed in which these companies are popping up is extraordinary like you know I look at something that like AI creative is extremely fascinating to me but the second like I spend five minutes a year ago looking at mid-journey there was like 20 other competitors I didn't even know existed and like by the way there's 20 popping up a day right now because the technology itself is fascinating and the speed in which it can matter so I just think people just need to be thoughtful during this time yeah

yeah last two lightning round questions for you uh you know you mentioned a little bit again ahead of your skis or a little bit of um you know maybe hubris that we all kind of see ourselves in when we have some good Investments or good whatever what's how do you view luck I mean going back to the last battle I just love your grit I love your hustle are you like a Chance favors to prepare a guy or how do you make your own luck or is it something different the way I look at luck is based on how the person that's deploying the word is weaponizing it oh man that was good well let's talk it through like what do I think about luck I was traded for wheat I was born in the Soviet Union the way I got to this country where entrepreneurship is put on a pedestal versus what happened to both my grandfathers which was by being entrepreneurs in Soviet Russia they spent meaningful time in jail so I get here and get to stand on fancy stages and hang out with cool people and my grandfather's my mom's dad spent 10 years in jail for selling like sausage for tile so what do I think about luck I think it's [ __ ] real like you know your mom and dad had sex at the right moment that's why you're even sitting here can't anyone understand it's a variable on the flip side all my friends and acquaintances who sit around and do nothing and watch cable television news and make themselves depressed 24 hours a day and produce nothing and do nothing and then decide to deploy luck on their friends or contemporaries as a weapon to prove something to themselves based on what they're not doing I don't believe in that version of luck so I think luck is real but I think it depends on the context I think everyone here is lucky because a million things happen for you to get here including avoiding disease and so many things like that just it's the human Spirit but when people look at anyone who actually works and says they're lucky like LeBron was lucky the way he was born you know how many hours of work went into that finished product and you know how many people were born with that same capability so I think you have to be careful in the context of how you deploy it

that's really well said um thank you sir what uh what is the last question what's in the future for Gary are the Jets still on the table are you going to make another song with Snoop for anyone it was a no check that out um the buying the Jets thing has been there since third grade I want to continue to try to pull it off it's a big part of my journey but I think I really I started to understand it in my late 30s early 40s which was like oh I love my craft I've always loved being an entrepreneur I always want to do business I guess even at a young age I subconsciously understood if I make a huge goal I'll always be playing you know I think I'm a counter puncher and what I mean by that is I really don't know the answer to that question I know that I like being active as a business person as a communicator I'm really in a small group of people that really the thing they love is also a thing they ended up being good at so I'm incredibly driven by gratitude um you know I'm in the life cycle where I'm like you know I want to be thoughtful about like what makes me happy and be more thoughtful about my choices I think one of the things I loved the last panel for the people in here that are built on grit or come from the dirt or I really love that statement of like not being impressed that happened to me I was an atrocious student and it wasn't until my late 20s early 30s that I'm like wait a minute I can kill all these Harvard [ __ ] you know like so I understood that you know um but I think one of the downsides of being driven by grit and like basically willing it to success is maybe you're not as selective you know like you know I'm I've built in a lot of ways where I'm just like I'm doing everything always at 100 I think you know I want to be a little bit more selective but the reality is I know that I just want to keep you know cultivating relationships through the context of business that leads to Great friendships still play my game like I desperately want to die at my desk and what I mean by that is like I don't see like I don't know what to do if I'm not like being active like I don't understand being 91 and like I don't want to fish you know like so I kind of anticipate always doing but like you know I just want to do stuff and then I want to communicate about it with the hope you know I'm incredibly affected by the way I was parented and I think when I analyze why do I put myself so out there I realize that the words that have predominantly my mom but a good part of my dad the words that were said to me formed how I rolled and I think there's a lot of intriguing advice both from parenting and society that is just wildly not practical to the truth of the situation and so I'm motivated by doing stuff and then communicating about it with the hope that it impacts some people positively thank you so much I wish we could do this for much longer but we appreciate the attention thank you cheers thank you I learned about you 2015 on the brilliant idiots you say one thing say dedicate 24 months to your life to something your life will [ __ ] change I listened so it took me two years to listen so now three years later I started a media company we bootstrapped to 17 full-time employees um Channing has basically been my mentor that's actually how I got invited to this office it's amazing um so we're in the gaming and Esports web 3 space and we do a lot with the rocker I love it so I just want to say hello send me an email everything absolutely I'd love to read it thank you