The Twelve Charts of Christmas

In this week's video, we'll be covering the 12 charts of Christmas. It's a chart of the NASDAQ 100 advanced decline line dating back to the peaking process here prior to the financial crisis in 2008. The AD line is advancing issues minus declining issues. It's a breath indicator. Back in this region here in 2024, we indicated that this consolidation and this push above this broad blue box was bullish. And indeed, it did turn out to be helpful and bullish. We still have a constructive look over here in late December of 2025. This really doesn't look anything like January of 2008. But the S&P 500 printing a new all-time high this week and taking into consideration that the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are highly correlated. This chart has also been helpful for quite a bit of time. During any bearish scare in this window here in 2024 and 2025, this chart had a confident and constructive look. This really didn't look anything like the peaking process in 2022. or this period in here where the S&P 500 plunged or this double bottom here in the S&P 500, the S&P 500 has a bottom here. Then it bottoms again in February of 2016. Thus, going into 2026, if the upper right hand corner of your screen started to morph into something more like this, concerns would increase. This is another version of a breath chart. This is the NYSC up volume minus down volume line. It's a lot like the advanced decline line that we covered in the opening slide. This is the number of issues minus the number of issues. This is the volume the sum of the volume of advancing issues minus declining issues. Notice this long-term period of consolidation and bullish breakout that we just had in calendar year 2025. Conceptually, this consolidation and break above the blue rectangle is similar to this breakout here that we covered in 2024. What does that tell us? tells us that we should be open to the bull market broadening out and possibly having more sectors and different ETFs participating in a more significant manner in 2026. Of course, that is to be determined. Since the 2024 presidential election and especially since Q1 of 2025 when tariffs were the main driver of the markets, the chatter has been incessant that the tariffs were going to cause inflation. This chart of the CRB index, which is a diversified basket of commodities, relative to the S&P 500, has been helpful. It would have been concerning earlier in 2025 if we breached this downward sloping trend line. Thankfully for the bulls, that did not happen. And the further this ratio fell in this direction in 2025, the easier it was to be confident, at least from a probabilistic perspective, that inflation was not going to be a showstopper for the markets as it was in this region here as inflation concerns picked up in 2021 and really took off in January of 2022 just as the S&P 500 was peaking. 2006 resistance 2007 there's a gap up here above this level then the same region becomes important in 2015 and 2016 and again here in 2020 the ratio of physical gold to the S&P 500 gold relative to stocks it's a monthly chart dating all the way back to 2002 is back up into that region. This momentum look here, see how this is a little bit different and stronger than anything we saw in 2021, 2022, 2023, or even 2024, tells us to keep an open mind about a breakout in this direction. Having said that, it hasn't happened yet. And this still represents an area of potential resistance. So if this chart here morphs into something more like this look here where the ratio confidently moves above the 200month moving average that was also declining here in 2007. Our confidence about increasing our gold exposure would increase. Right now gold

and the stock market are doing well. And if you look at this ratio going back to 2014, 2015, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, all the way to 2025, there's been no clear advantage between gold and the S&P 500. Leadership has oscillated. Thus, we would prefer to remain patient rather than overtrading. We'll see how this unfolds in the coming weeks and months, but we would still be taking somewhat of a measured approach because this is a very long-term chart of the same ratio physical gold relative to the S&P 500. In this case, we're looking at data going all the way back to 1968. And rather than being a monthly chart, it's a quarterly chart. And the quarterly cloud tells us along with this downward sloping trend line resistance again when gold reversed in 2011 we're approaching that downward sloping trend line and a relatively thick cloud. The thick cloud and the downward sloping trend line tell us really what we already know from looking at the chart that this represents an area of potential resistance. You'll also notice the cloud, the green span is above the ratio. Blue looks like it's trying to cross above red here. Price is above red, telling us we're checking several bullish boxes in favor of gold. Say it's possible that we could blow right through the red cloud as we did in this region here. Right now, we really should just be happy that we've owned gold for quite some time and done quite well with it. And our stock positions are doing well. We'll continue to keep an eye on this in calendar year 2026. And based on what we know today, it's probably fair to say that we would have better than 50/50 odds that we might add to our gold exposure. But we'll see how it plays out. The main takeaway here on a holiday shortened video is that the NASDAQ 100 remains in a longterm uptrend. This is a daily chart. You can see the 200 day moving average acted as resistance and rolled over in calendar year 2022 when the NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ composite, Dow, and S&P 500 were all in bare markets. You can see the recent consolidation that we've had in the NASDAQ 100 up here. This is all taking place above well above an upward sloping 200 day moving average. This really doesn't look anything like this. This chart pretty much speaks for itself and we've been covering it for a long time, including covering this bullish cross back here in 2023 into 2024. The takeaway here is the present day checking all of the bullish boxes on the monthly cloud really doesn't look anything like the peaking process here in the year 2000 nor anything like this window in here during the financial crisis. If the upper right hand corner of your screen starts to morph into something that looks more like Q4 of the year 2000, concerns would increase. This still looks like a long-term bullish breakout, the NASDAQ 100 relative to the S&P 500 that's consolidating up here in a healthy manner. the read of this chart would change significantly if this look here starts to morph into something more like this again. Meaning we go from a bullish breakout to a failed breakout look which is exactly what we had here in 2022. And that's why you had to respect the downside risk at this point until the chart started to improve in a meaningful way. The longer a market goes sideways, the bigger the move we can expect to get when we either get a bullish breakout or bearish breakdown. The 11th chart of Christmas, this is the broad 1500 S&P. It's a composite index. What does that mean? It takes the S&P 500, the midcap 400, the S&P 600, and glues [clears throat] them together to cover approximately 90% of US market capitalization. Look at the index here in early 2022 and look at price in relation to the moving averages. Contrast this look here and this rollover look to this turning up look that we have forming in calendar year 2025. Way back here we showed the three steps for a probabilistic trend change. Step number one we broke the downward sloping

trend line. Step number two in here we made a higher low relative to this low back here. And step number three we eventually went on to print a higher high as the moving averages were turning back up. And this cluster look tells us that these trends on multiple time frames, the 30-we, the 40we, and the 50we are converging. And in this case, they're converging in a bullish manner. This really doesn't look anything like this negative convergence here. And rollover look in 2022. Number 12, my new highs minus new lows. That's new 52- week highs minus new 52- week lows. You can see during the bare market in 2022, this breath indicator was never able to clear the thin blue line. See the white space above the blue line here. And when we did clear that line in 2023 in Q1, it was a good sign because that was after the S&P 500 bottomed back here in Q4 of 2022. similar situation in 2025 when we had the big tariff draw down in Q1 of this year. It was a good sign when we made it back to that same blue line and since then good things have continued to happen in the stock market. We hope everyone's having a safe and relaxing holiday week with their families. And we all know the only way that we can use all of this effectively late in 2025 and in calendar year 2026 is if we head in next week and every week with that flexible, unbiased, and open mind. The material in this video has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any viewer. This video is presented solely forformational purposes, and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, nor should any of its content be taken as investment advice. Any opinions expressed in this video are subject to change without notice and Shivako Capital Management LLC or CCM is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. CCM and its respective officers and associates or clients may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. CCM accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. We recommend that you consult with a licensed and qualified professional before making any investment decision.