URGENT 💀 Don't Be Dumb with Siren !

Was this a rugpull or the perfect setup? It seems like Siren is completely manipulated, but then still the unexpected is happening. Siren is currently the most viewed cryptocurrency in all of the Coin Gecko website. All attention is on Siren. It's viewed more than Bitcoin, more than Ethereum, more than Solana. And we've been covering Siren on this channel. we saw this more than 70% crash coming and that was because of the imbalance of the spot market trading volume and the perpetual futures trading volume. So in short, there's a lot of bets on the siren price and at the same time the asset is not very liquid. So it's very easy to manipulate the price in order to liquidate as many retail investors as possible. So there's now more than 1 billion worth of trading volume on the bets on Siren while there's only 12 million worth of trading volume on the spot market. So 100 times more bets than spot trading and that's what's creating the volatility. But then a follow-up video was published and here we discussed that there's a good chance that Siren might actually recover again after the crash and that was because there was still a lot of open interest on the asset. In other words, even after the crash, still many people were betting on the asset. And when there's a lot of tension, betting, very often the price tends to just go in sync. So this recovery rally of more than 100%. Was not unexpected. Have a look at the open interest. It was still high even after the crash. Now, fundamentally, the problem with speculating on an asset like Siren is that there's a few people that have all the power. They are basically the referee in the game. You can bet on team A or team B. But really the market makers, they can pay the referee. They can say if A or B wins. So if enough people bet on rising prices of Siren, for example, then the price can crash. Then the market makers just sell off a lot of Siren on the spot market. If enough people are bearish on Siren and they bet on falling prices, they can just buy up the token for a few hundred,000 and then liquidate millions above millions of perpetual futures traders. That's a problem. You are not the referee. Still, I want to share my perspective what I think is the most likely outcome from here. Given the data, this here is currently the funding rate on Siren. It's still negative, which means that more people are betting on falling prices than on rising prices right now. But interestingly enough, in the last 3 days, so after the initial short squeeze on the 22nd of March, the following 3 days, we haven't seen as many short liquidations. So the price of Siren continued to rise, but all of that volatility did not lead to a lot of liquidations. In other words, it became quite expensive for the market makers to move the price up and down. And the gains, the liquidation gains that were made from all of that price movement, we're rather low. And so that's always the fundamental game, right? How much money can be made by liquidating others versus how expensive is it to move the price around? If currently all of that volatility creates that little liquidation fees, creates that little market edge, then at some point siren will deflate again. Right now there's more short investors than long investors. But I do think that after this recent rally, this 100% rally, the market makers will again over time reduce their exposure. It's not really worth it for them anymore. We've already talked about this in the prior video, but I want to reiterate the market cap effect. The higher the market cap of an asset, the more expensive it is to manipulate it. Siren has almost reached the $2 billion mark. Now, let's have a look at similar pump and dumps. This is memecore that reached a market cap of 4. 5 billion roughly. This is stock with head. It also reached 4. 5 billion. We've got Bonk. It reached 4 billion. We've got Faky. It reached 3 billion. We've got Pudgy Penguins at 2 1/2. SPX900 at 2 billion. So, you can see that for many of those kinds of assets, the inflection point is somewhere between 5 billion at the upper end and potentially below 2 billion at the lower end. Here is Brett at 2 billion. Here is Pippen at only 800 million. And here's Turbo at 800 to 900 million. So this is then where we've got Siren with the current top at 1. 75 billion. Is there a chance that it will double again from here? Yes, of course. Right. 3. 6 billion would be possible. Is it likely that it's going to reach 10 billion? I don't think so. Right? We haven't seen this in prior release. So at some point this will turn around. We are probably not going to 4 5x from here. Could we double? Yes. Is the likelihood very high? No. Because there's not so many liquidations anymore. I think that a deflation of the price from here is more likely than a

continuation of the rally. If we continue to rally further, then it might make sense to even double down on a short. Could we short right now? Yes. Of course. The issue is always don't have the stop-loss too tight because even very short term the volatility can be massive and it's easy to get liquidated through that volatility here. Just have a look at the hourly chart of Siren. You might be betting on falling prices over here rightfully so. Subsequently, we went down by 40%. But if you're not managing your risk properly, you're getting squeezed out with this very short-term 50% rally. So that's the major risk. At some point we will deflate again. Will it be right now or are we going to see a secondary short squeeze and will we deflate from over here? I do not have a crystal ball. I'm simply just showing the ballpark numbers where usually those kinds of manipulated pump and dumps deflate. And the upper end really seems to be the $5 billion mark. And we have reached 1. 8 billion in siren already. But again, I do think that even short-term, a falling price is more likely than a rising price simply because even though there are more short investors than long investors, the liquidation benefits aren't high enough anymore. We're already seeing now how the open interest started to decline. That's another indication that the party is over. The crowd is moving on to the next event. I hope you got some value out of this video. If you did, feel free to give it a like. It helps the channel grow. If it's your very first time here, feel free to subscribe as well. I publish videos regularly. If you're interested in my own trades as well, there's also the premium membership. Link is in the pinned comment. Thanks for watching. See you next time.