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Stock Unlock#64 Podcast
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:00 Mobile app preview/sneak peek
05:30 Earnings Season - $GOOGL
14:18 $NFLX
15:05 $META
17:58 $TSLA
21:17 Answering questions from the chat ($META, $TSLA)
25:55 Jake’s rant on cloud computing
31:18 $AMZN
32:48 Continuation on Jake’s rant and answering more questions from the chat
43:17 Outro
Disclaimer:
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No matter what I or anyone else says, it’s important to do your own research before making a financial decision.
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20 step investing checklist:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VFMFQT4CMTqsomMYqoZvmCjQolTC8Lo2/view?usp=sharing
Оглавление (11 сегментов)
Intro
should be live. All right, the uh millennial stutter as some people call it where we were trained to wait to see that the camera's actually on. And if you're Gen Z, you know what we're talking about. You can make fun of us. Anyways, we are back. Episode 64. A bunch of stock market nerds. Daniel Prank is a big YouTuber over in Canada. Uh most of you likely know him and I am his business partner, behind the scenes engineer. Going to be talking about a few things today. We've been cooking up some great technology at our company Stock Unlock. So we're happy to share some progress on our mobile app. Uh it's super exciting. There is some conversation to be had about whether we are in the early late or midstages of cloud growth. Uh which I have some thoughts on as an engineer. And obviously earnings season is upon us. So we'll be watching the chat. Shout out to everyone who is joining us live from around the world right now. Daniel, anything to add there or do you want to hop into the mobile app discussion? Uh no, nothing to add. Let's uh let's get to it. Awesome. I have the video. Uh, unless if
Mobile app preview/sneak peek
you want to start off with some screenshots. Yeah, sure. Just while people are running or getting into the stream, I can share my screen. And, uh, while you're getting that up, just to context that with everyone here, if you are not aware, uh, our company, Stock Unlock, has been operating for four years. We launched our product in December of 2021. It is crazy how long ago that was. And thank you to our thousands of customers who support us. It's been a wild ride. However, we never made a mobile app. Daniel, I'm actually happy to hash out that discussion here if people would find it interesting. But there is a funny founder story about that. Um, regardless, we are deep in development on this. We are getting so many emails and DMs from you all about what's the progress on this, can I help test, where's it at? So, we figured we'd give an update right here. And yeah, Daniel, take it away. It looks like you have it up. Yeah. So, this is the watch list feature. Everything is still being designed and developed, but some of it is coming along. So, yeah, this is the watch list feature that we have. I think this is actually coded now, and hopefully we can start to get the app into people's hands as soon as possible. We don't really have a launch date for beta testing or anything yet, but it is coming along. So, that's the quick watch list. And then we also have this is a screenshot here of what the portfolio is currently looking like. You can definitely see that this is by the way I have never seen this either. Yeah, you can definitely tell that this is still in design because insights is actually spelled incorrectly right there. So Adid, if you're watching this, bro, we got some uh spelling mistakes that we still got to fix. Um yes, that's the portfolio home screen. What's cool is we're going to actually start doing deeper analysis on portfolio insights, pointing out some risks that you may have in your portfolio. And then also, we're going to start showing the buys and sells. So on your portfolio chart, you will start to see when you bought stocks in your portfolio, when you sold them right on your portfolio screen. So you can kind of see like your habits of buying and selling, which is kind of cool. Um, this will be the dividends page. Again, all of this is still in development and in design. So, none of this is finalized, but this is where we're currently at. So, nice, beautiful dividend screen on the app. And then this is the calendar. We have listened to our users and we have been told that we want the calendar feature to be list format instead of calendar format. I agree. So, we're building out the list format in the app. So, you can just scroll up and down through all of your events coming up. So, that is kind of a sneak peek. I will not reveal too much, but it is coming along. Yeah. One thing that impresses me is I think what's the total count of the number of mobile apps you have tried at this point? Dozens. So, like what are like some of the biggest themes and I'm curious in the chat too like what are we going to like be building here that's like unique that people aren't going to get from the existing apps today? Well, the biggest unique thing would be our stock unlock insights actually going into an app and you'll we're going to design and notifications hopefully build them into the first version, but we're going to start giving notifications around insights and things going on within your portfolio a lot more intelligently than the other apps do and then just all around a better UI. I've learned that investing apps, for some reason, there's not a single investing app in my opinion that's designed well. and we're going to fix that. So, that's going to be a gamecher as well. Well, I'm looking forward to it. And that first video that you played too was running on a local development machine, which is super exciting. We got a question from Sebastian here. Will it be designed for smartphones or for larger screens, iPad, etc. That is a great question. Uh, we have not been testing the app specifically on iPads. We'll get back to you on that. It should work on those screens. And just as a reminder, stockunlock. com today is technically mobile compatible. However, we will be the first ones to admit it is optimized for desktop. Uh but there are a lot of people who are using stockunlock. com on tablets today and having a great time. So you can pop that open in Google Chrome. Cool. Right. Uh so we are in earnings
Earnings Season - $GOOGL
season. Is there any particular stock that you have been most excited to see report? I was surprised to see you look at Google so closely to remind everyone here. You did own Google at one point. You then sold it if I'm correct on that. And now you are looking at it again. Ah, that's a fun little tidbit. No, Google. I am not talking to you right now. Sorry. My phone. Yeah. Um, well, I mean, I'm a content creator, right? I look at Google every quarter. It's not, you know, me looking into it to necessarily buy it. It's just to stay up to date with what's going on. Um, yeah, I don't own Google anymore. Reason simply was I have higher conviction in other stocks I own and I think that they'll produce higher returns and I went through a consolidation period in my portfolio. Got rid of Google. Happy with that decision and so far it's actually worked out better for me. So yeah, um I did not go deeply through Google's earnings. I saw the highlights. We've been very busy and I think the highlights said everything looked good. No, revenue came in, I think, up 12%. And operating cash flows were up, net income was up. So, the thesis of Google being a dying business does not seem to be real as of right now. So, yeah, seems like a good quarter. I don't know what it's selling for in terms of price at all right now. So, I'm sorry everyone, but I just don't have any real deep insights beyond what I've seen in headlines so far. It sometimes it doesn't have to be deep. Um, but yeah, headlines where they authorize a $70 billion share buyback. Uh, YouTube ads grew to almost nine billion uh, dollars, up almost a billion from the previous report. And what was the other thing that caught my eye? Someone tweeted this. I did not confirm it, but someone said that Google is the leading company in the world in private consumer subscriptions over Amazon Prime. I did not double check that, so I don't know if that is true. However, I know that I am now a Google one customer. They totally have me by the neck. for years and years, a decade plus, I've been putting all my stuff into Google Photos, Google Drive. It is the cloud storage I trust. And now they're like very cleverly, you know, hey, you know, you're reaching your limit, but you could pay $20 a year to get a terabyte of storage. And I'm like, I am so glad that I own Google stock, too, because you're taking all my money and my phone. Uh, so that was really impressive to me. What people don't really notice a lot of the time, Daniel, is even with YouTube ad revenue up, people are able to buy the YouTube subscription. And you actually called this out, I think a year ago on the show, that sometimes people misinterpret the YouTube ad revenue not growing because they're not attributing the number of subscriptions they actually have that people are tacking on. I'm curious, do you pay for YouTube premium subscription? Yep. It's an absolute life. Like, dude, everyone, I haven't done it. Sell me on it. Why do I need it? Why do Why are you watching ads? How do you go about your day and then watch YouTube and see so many ads? Like I think they put four to five ads in every single one of my videos. Like that would drive me so insane. It did drive me insane. I go on my phone. And what? Your phone doesn't have ads? Well, no. I mean like I'll go on like X like read a couple investing posts. I'll go into the Stock and Lock Discord. Okay. For people who watch YouTube like regularly, it's basically paying to not have commercials, right? I don't know. It feels like a huge like going away from YouTube Premium now that I don't I just don't see advertisements to if I'm on like a different account and I do see advertisements or if like Shelby and I are traveling, I'm like, "Wow, I need to buy YouTube Premium. " Like, this is crazy. This sucks. So I think I have the reverse psychology sunk cost fallacy here because I have been getting pushed by Google to buy YouTube premium for like seven or eight years and I have so consistently said no and it's almost like when you're arguing with a sibling and it's irrational and you're like it doesn't even matter if this is logical like my feet are in cement right now and I feel like I'm just giving in and caving in but I also own the stock. So maybe that's okay. But I'm just so used to saying no. You are right though. I probably should try it. I'm very weird with cash flow stuff. So like whenever there's a monthly subscription, why we create Stock and Lock? Like I was very almost militant on like, okay, would I as a consumer pay for Stock and Lock? Because like I'm someone that really does not subscribe to almost anything. I think Spotify has been one of my only consistent ones. So maybe it's just my weird consumer behavior. I would say if you watch YouTube regularly, the quality of life improvement is worth the $15 a month or whatever it is. It's very high ROI on that spend. Um I did see that. Sorry, I was just saying Ralph agrees. Yeah. Yeah, you totally distracted me with that. Um the I did see that Google announced that they're potentially doing a share offering. Someone just shared that recently. So Google may be actually diluting a little bit. I don't know if that's true. I just saw it on X that they did a that they're filed for a shelf offering which is usually some form of dilution. My theory there is if that's true, Google announced something like a $75 billion buyback program. They also want to acquire Whiz for cash, which is like 30 something billion dollars. So the buyback program plus Whiz is pretty much equal to their existing cash position. Like obviously they generate billion tens of billions of dollars in free cash flow a year. But yeah, with Whiz and that massive share buyback program, maybe they're supplementing some cash with a an offering of some sort. Well, we can see if we could trust Grock here. I'm actually confused by this because what's the purpose of doing a share offering if you have the cash to buy back the shares? Isn't that just It's like adding It's like doing like two plus two minus one equals three instead of something. Yeah. I mean, it's it's not irregular for companies to dilute at the same time as they buy back shares. Like I've actually seen it on quite a few cash flow statements. I mean, you know, Google does stock based compensation, which is dilution, and then they buy those back. So yeah, I'm reading what I have on the screen up right now. I can confirm if we want to trust Grock here that they did today actually announced a mixed shelf offering and they did not specify the size, but that would be for acquisition, step management, and other projects. Yep. So I think it's probably to fund the whiz acquisition. That would be my speculation. So my confusion then is like why I guess like why are they buying back shares then? Is that just like an optics play? Yeah, probably. Wait, I got it. They're playing 10 dimensional chess. I I'm being serious by the way. Okay, so when you do a share buyback, in addition to having good earnings, what happens to your stock price relative to the valuation, assuming it wasn't too high? goes up in a normally functioning market. Someone's going to attack me for that, whatever. So, if they think that their share price is going to go up and they want to push that maybe above fair value, then it does make sense to start um start uh putting out like the share shelf offering. So they do the buyback, they get the share price to go up, and then they dilute it back down, getting more net money than if they had just taken that cash because they're playing optics games with their share price. Technically, that would work. I don't actually think that's right because it sounds crazy. But optically, it's mathematically feasible for that to happen. Sure. Yep. Don't think they're doing that, but okay. Um, what what's your theory? I mean, I think it's a little weird. Or you just don't think that 70 billion is enough cuz the whiz deal I thought was 30 billion and that might even be partially with stock. Like I'm not sure how they were going to I said my theory. I think they're using the shelf offering to pay for whiz. Yeah, I know. But my to me that doesn't make sense because they have enough cash to do that without diluting. Yes. But if you factor in the buyback 70 billion plus whiz 30 billion that's all their cash today. All right. I don't know. It's just like why do 70 billion? Why not do a 40 billion buyback and then not dilute? Anyways, I guess we'll find out later. I have not listened to the earnings call yet. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see what happens. All right. We were talking about how I
$NFLX
did not have YouTube Premium. Jake, you don't do Netflix? No. I think my fiance's mother or her best friend has a Netflix account. Somehow we're allowed to share it, but nope. Don't do Netflix. Actually, I my father has a YouTube Prime, sorry, an Amazon Prime subscription. So, I do watch Forensic Files sometimes before going to bed, and that's like my like the one show I watch. It's like from the 90s. If anyone watches Forensic Files, let me know in the chat because we'll be best friends. It's such a weird show. Jake, I heard that you were thinking about buying Meta or you not thinking about it, but you said that the stock was starting to look attractive to you. Meta is a sad stock for me because I I've said this on the show before. Stock went down to 90. I actually like kind of
$META
agreed with some of the bare narrative like Mark was acting crazy throwing money around into the metaverse. Like I actually think that had legs. Obviously, he changed it around. Stocks went way up. When the stock was at like 200 on that bounce back, he went on Lex Freedman podcast, showed the progress with like the meta glasses. Like I looked at the sales and my gut feeling was, "Wow, this sounds great, but I shouldn't buy the stock. I should wait because it's already ran over 100% since the low. So, like why would I like it was so stupid. I was like, why would I buy a stock that's ran up so much? Obviously, then it went to like 900 bucks. Um, I've still had my eye on it. I think it's a great company and I've just noticed that the price is falling a lot. It's something that I need to do a little bit more research on, but I think they have a really huge moat. I think there's massive network effects across WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook. I don't see those apps being overtaken or going away anytime soon. Uh they're also proving and Mark's proving that he's a CEO that innovates. Like this isn't an Apple issue where you like bring in Tim Cook and he's just cooking the company to death. Like not innovating on new products or like dropping things that stink like the Meta uh or like the whatever VR things they drop. Now they're actually trying to like copy what Meta is doing, which I actually think is super bullish for them. Now, like Meta and Mark are kind of like the younger company relative to Apple, like pushing in the lead there. And I just really love like a diversified business like that with a founder CEO who is tenacious and on fire. So, yeah, as the stock uh price has been dropping, I don't have a buy price yet, but the more it drops, the more interested I'll get. I don't have much more of an update than that. Yeah. What about you? Would you ever buy it back? Because you did own it at one point and sold it for a game. I don't know. This is it. It's hard for me. Like so many people ask me, Daniel, what price are you going to buy Microsoft? And I can't give you an answer there. And I don't want to give people an answer there. And here's the reason why. If I say, for example, I will buy Microsoft at $320. Then when Microsoft gets to $320, I'll get hundreds of messages being like, Daniel, oh my god, are you buying now? But here's the thing. If Microsoft is at 320, what's Brookfield at? What is Equitable Bank at? What is uh what are some of my other stocks selling for? Because if Microsoft's down, those are probably down as well, right? So, it's like if Microsoft gets to 320, that doesn't mean it's a buy. I still want to look at what is every other stock in my portfolio selling for and should I just add to those instead? So, I don't like to I no longer like to say if stock X gets to price Y, I'm going to be buying it because it's just like you have to compare every investment versus every other investment that's available at the time. So, I have no idea. One fun topic could be Tesla. You had a viral tweet that had hundreds of thousands of impressions.
$TSLA
Oh man, I got freaking roasted on X. Yeah. Should we bring that one up and like go through some of the comments there? No. No. Because half the comments are like cussing me out using very extremely vulgar language against me. So, I will not screen share that. Dude, if you say anything about Tesla online, like you're in it. You know, you are setting yourself up for internet bullying. When you click on a lot of those accounts though, like I actually clicked on some of those accounts and I looked at their pages. I'm like, I don't know if this is a real person. Like that's one of the issues with it. I don't even know if it's like trollbot farming and you see that a lot with crypto too. If like I made a post about MSTR and I was basically like this is a scam. Nothing to the level of interaction that you got. But for my scale level of interaction, I did have a few comments on there that were like you know, hey boomer like have fun being poor type comments. And every account that I clicked on I'm like I actually don't think this is a real person or they at least like don't come off that way. Yeah. the uh the consensus the overall view I think that post got like over 500 comments just it was wild. It just went nuts. Um but the overall consensus was Tesla is not a car company. So you cannot think about this as a car company. It's an AI software tech autonomous robots um full self-driving company energy energy. So, like people were telling me the numbers of Tesla today literally mean nothing. Like don't even look at the earnings report. Throw it out the window because it's all about Optimus, full self-driving, the 20 trillion valuation that's coming up in 10 years. Like that is the bullcase on Tesla stock. That's what people are buying it for is like literally throw every valuation metric, revenue, throw everything out the window. I even had people saying that Tesla's profit margins declining is actually a good thing for the business. Like that is how much people are bending reality to justify Tesla being a good investment is like yeah it's gross profits declining actually means it's good. And the theory there, this was their theory, gross profits declining means that Tesla is lowering their um average selling price per vehicle, which obviously is compressing margins. But Tesla is doing that to out compete with all of the other car manufacturers because then Tesla lowering their price increases market share. Okay, sure. You know, they're trying to price gouge, gain market share, but then why is their market share dropping? you go and take a look at their market share, it's also dropping. So clearly, if that's their strategy, then it's not working because BYD is kicking their ass. So it's like I don't buy it. I don't buy that argument. Their moat is successfully, if you want to look at a company where its moat is successfully being attacked, go look at Tesla. That is one for one. The financial statements is exactly what a company where its moat is being overcome looks like. I have nothing to add. That was beautiful. Crazy. Gonna go through a couple of the live comments here. Shout out to everyone who comes to the live show with us. And if
Answering questions from the chat ($META, $TSLA)
you're listening to the recording, come hang out with us live on YouTube sometime. Daniel Workman, great to see you again. Uh referencing our meta comments from before. Uh looks like you started a small position. And it seems like we're actually on the same page with some of the higher level thinking of their mo to grow its profits despite regulatory headwinds. Interesting. Yeah, I met Meta is also one of those companies where I'm not sure how impacted they are by tariffs since it's a lot of digital goods. However, I don't think anyone knows what's going on there, so I'm holding my breath. I don't know. Yeah, never mind. Who knows? Um, someone's asking us to review SMR, which is in the nuclear reactor space. I think I'm speaking for both of us here, but you can correct me, Daniel. I don't think we have anything interesting to add there. We're not nuclear people. Uh, so if we have time at the end, we could do a fundamental analysis, but I don't think we'd have anything interesting to say there. Oh yeah. Um Rob H actually says Jeremy from Financial Education, one of the largest stock analysis channels. He actually sold his Tesla shares. He sold out after that earnings report. I was just about to pick the same comment. I sent him a DM on Twitter. He didn't answer me. Yeah, that guy probably gets like thousands of messages a day, which is fair. Yeah. Okay. I mean, he was the original Tesla guy. To give Jeremy credit here, y he was not like the post202021 Tesla guy. He was like the no one's paying attention to me like 2017 2018 Tesla guy. So like to give credit where credit is due. He mooned that one. And I think you got to tip a hat to that. So for him to sell that, he led a lot of that community online. So how was the response to that tweet? I did not see it. I have I did not take a look. And he also made a video I think uh it was either yesterday or the day before like going through the cell thesis. I honestly just have like not had time to catch up with all this stuff. So I don't know what he said, but based on his tweets and the recent tweets he's put out, it sounds like his main concern was that Tesla really just like doesn't have a CEO right now. Like Elon Musk is so distracted with Doge and everything he's doing in the government. The business is clearly suffering. like sales are going down, revenue is declining, profit margins are in the freaking gutter. So I think the company his thesis based on what I've gathered which is a very ignorant opinion honestly everyone but it sounds like he thinks the company is just like leader it doesn't have leadership right now. So I think it's very fair. Yeah. I was going to add to like taking a page out of Warren Buffett's book and philosophy. I think this applies to both of us, but whenever I go heavy on a stock, I really care about who the CEO is. And I especially look for founder CEOs. So, no one's going to argue against Elon being one of the most tenacious um best CEOs depending on what slice of time you look at. However, if you spread yourself too thin, you know, he's not an alien or at least we don't think he is. And with all the new Yeah, with everything else he's taken on, I agree. I would not feel comfortable owning any stock where the CEO is not 100% involved or at least hasn't like communicated very clearly to investors that if they are not 100% involved, how we can be assured that the right people are like at the front of the ship continuing to like steer this thing in the right direction. To me, most of the communication is just the hype of like, you know, Elon will literally tweet about Whimo and be like, "Oh yeah, like Whimo can just drive in these cities, but like our FSD can drive in all cities. " But then the obvious response to that is like, okay, maybe you'll be right and that's freaking awesome, but like what's happening today? So, it's like a lot of smoke and mirrors in my opinion. He's good at it. So, we'll see. I'm rooting for them. I want us to be wrong. I want Tesla to be a 30 trillion dollar company. I want Optimus to take over the world. They're the biggest energy company. Like, that would be hilarious to me in 10 years if we look back and everyone that was like growing out in Tesla was right. Like I secretly really want that to happen. Yeah. You know, like I'm not sitting here saying I hope Tesla goes to zero and everyone loses their money. Like I don't want anyone to lose money. That's I think that's a terrible thing to wish for. I just try to share my objective thoughts on the valuation of that company today being ludicrous and extremely risky in my opinion. Sweet. Well, topic change here. I have been holding to my chest a mini rant about cloud computing. Yes. All right. I have to stand up for this. This is
Jake’s rant on cloud computing
completely unprepared, so I might slip on words here. All right. And yes, I'm wearing pajama pants. Okay. People are debating if Dude, I am so fired up on this. You have no idea. People are debating if cloud computing is in the mid-growth stage, if it's still early, or if it's late, or if people are going to start bringing things back on prem. And all the big cloud providers are spending so much freaking money on AI. And I've been listening to a lot of interviews with Sasha Nadella, the CEO of Microsoft, as well as just seeing what's on the ground as an engineer, looking at what my friends are doing, running companies, and uh just seeing a lot of really uh what I would say like little seedlings that are being planted that I don't think people are paying attention to right now. So, let's relate this to something everyone can understand. If there is a gold rush, how do you want to profit off of that? You can go and mine gold or you can start to create pickaxes or you can like invest in the mining companies. And I would say you don't want to be someone mining gold. You actually want to be the like invest in a mining company or you want to be selling pickaxes. So what something what people are sleeping on with AI is right now I'm going to make up numbers. Let's say there's 10 million great developers on the planet. It's probably more, but I'm just gonna say 10 million. The amount of code that you could output is very much tied to the speed of development as well as the number of people who are able to produce code. What that ends up doing is most of that is run on one of the big three cloud providers. This is AWS, Azour or GCP which is Google cloud compute. Yes, there are other like more like smaller clouds like Adobe or I think Apple has one but those are the three. They have pretty big network effects right now. What people don't realize is when you integrate with a cloud provider, it's a very sticky business. For example, Stock and Lock uses AWS, the amount of time and money it would take to move to a different cloud provider is absolutely immense. So going back to my point of like X number of developers who could do like Y bandwidth in terms of the amount of tech that they could create. I think that number is about to 100x in the next 5 to 10 years. I am convinced that Daniel Prank who has never written code in his life will be prompting code diffs for engineers to review at this company. you were seeing people put out endless and endless tools like lovable. dev, vzero. dev, all these small things that people aren't paying attention to. Here's the first domino that fell. Lovable. dev got kicked off of GitHub. GitHub is a place where you could host code. Uh Microsoft actually bought it and they got kicked off because the amount of people that were creating new repositories and pushing code to GitHub was like almost crashing their servers. They had since fixed it, but this is like a new phenomenon. Normally, it's really hard to learn how to code. you need to be someone like me who's like a complete geekazoid, like maybe on the spectrum or something, right? Like really like weird people to like just go and nerd out on that. That is not going to be the case in five years. Almost anyone at a company is going to be able to build these small apps. There's going to be tons of drag and drop tools similar to drag and drop websites now, but to create full-fledged apps. And now you had to ask yourself, where is that going to run? be hosted? Not only the end results of the apps that you code, but also all the models that are running and generating this code. It's all very comput intensive. So I actually don't think that the cloud provider companies are spending enough right now. I would go as wild to say that I would actually want them to dilute shareholders and take out more debt to build out more capacity for the complete absolute gold rush that is about to happen. I don't even think that we are in the first inning of cloud computing for AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft. And I predict that by 2035 those will likely be the b biggest segments at each of those companies. Greater than Google ads, greater than what Microsoft makes on their B2B sales and then greater what Amazon makes on their marketplace. That is like how wild and how much people are undershooting and like not understanding how much more code is going to be written like where that's hosted and then like reverse engineering that back to like how do I profit as an investor off of this gold rush. You can try to invest in companies like Airbnb which is hard. You can try to find edge companies that are leveraging AI to like give a end consumer product or you can kind of like go to the highway infrastructure layer. And that's really my rant. I just think people are sleeping on it. So I cannot stop buying Amazon. I can't stop buying Google. Uh Microsoft's been a hold for me for a bit, but I've actually been buying Amazon heavier than Airbnb. I've been buying both of those very heavily. But Oh, yeah. Yeah, dude. I think people are sleeping on that, man. People don't Sorry, I'm almost done. I'm like, my armpits are sweating right now. People just don't understand. Like, they really have no idea the freaking title wave that's about to smack us in the face with the amount of software that is about to be produced. I think it is 100xing within by like 2030. Yeah. No, I I'd agree. I think we're just getting started. Like, when you think about how wild the future's going to get, it's going to be weird, man. The future's going to be so weird. And uh these companies are building quite literally the future. I actually went through Amazon's shareholder letter and like before Amazon reports earnings next
$AMZN
week, I think everyone should just go read the fourth quarter 2024 transcript. Just like read what Andy Jasse said. He very clearly is like we're spending I think $110 billion on AI capex and we still like we still have more demand than we can meet. Like we literally cannot plow enough money into this. Their AI business is a multi-billion dollar revenue run rate company right now and it's growing over a 100% per year which is like four times faster than cloud grew at the same stage. He's like this is nuts. This is a once ina-lifetime event and opportunity that like we have to capitalize on. So the thesis of like these companies are spending too much on capex. I mean Andy Jasse very clearly said we would not spend this money if we weren't 100% confident it's going to produce returns for us. So, it's like they're spending 110 billion max capex they possibly can and he's confident it's going to produce high returns. Like, and the stock is selling for its lowest price multiples since the financial crisis, literally. Like, to me, I'm just like, yeah, Amazon's a no-brainer here. Like, I am buying as much Amazon as I can. It's grown into a larger position for me. I'm like, you know, it's one of those things where you don't have to be a genius. It's pretty clear. Yeah, exactly. Um Lola here makes a
Continuation on Jake’s rant and answering more questions from the chat
mention on security like I agree. This is also why Google is buying whiz. Um two more points here on this that people don't realize. There is a network effect exponential impact that the increase of AI and the increase of people's ability to code on it and push code out that people are also sleeping on. As more time goes on and as these AI tools get better and let you produce more code in a very weird recursive way, you are like using AI to ship more code that then improves code to make more AI code that is able to generate more code faster and better. It is actually very comparable to the like runaway AGI thesis where you will eventually get to a point where the AIs are able to self-improve, self- diagnose themselves and then like create physical things in the real world and it starts this like weird bootstrapping effect where you go from like smarter than the smartest human on the world to like smarter than the sum of all humans. And like Google, I think Sergey, one of the original Google co-founders, he's like ringing the bell on this. He's like there's going to be no software engineers in five years. He's like there's going to be AGI that is better than the intelligence of the sum, not the average, the sum of all humans. So that's point number one. There's network effects here where it actually continues to tail spin itself out. This is why I think that these cloud companies are still not going to be able to keep up with demand. The second point, and I want to be put on the record for this, is the world's changed thought in the last 100 years. So if you look at industries that used to be regulated, you are looking at the railroads. I'm going to use that example. Railroads are regulated because they go across state lines and they're also very monopolistic by nature. So, you actually have to protect consumers where they don't, you know, buy the railroad, buy all the wood, and then they don't let anyone else build railroads and they could just charge whatever they want. I'm really happy that there's at least three main players here because what I don't think politicians understand yet is that these cloud providers and like all the energy that they're going to need, I believe are the railroads of the future. And I think that there's going to be around the year like 2030 a really intense political debate that gets to like the heart of like capitalism and like free markets and what a government should be responsible for where there's going to be really compelling arguments to actually have these cloud providers be a like federally regulated industry because it will quite literally be the railroads of what drives all of the future world economies from running the financial infrastructure system, banking system, any consumer app you're using, the thing that we're streaming on right now. Uh it will also be like a single point of failure and like a national security risk if it's not already. Um I don't know if that's actually going to be good or bad for shareholders to be completely honest. Um but yeah, it's like I don't see enough people talking about this. And not to segue into something else, like another issue is like where the hell are we going to get the energy to run all this stuff? Like that's another huge bottleneck here. It's not really the hardware, it's the energy, right? So maybe we should go back to that person's nuclear. Yeah. Well, let's segue into you. So we're talking I just talked about a rant on how you can invest into kind of like putting yourself into the moat of like benefiting from AI and my angle was go to the cloud providers. This brought up the issue of energy. So maybe you can continue this as to like Brookfield's play here. Uh yeah, Brookfield builds the data centers and supplies the energy. It's not entirely what their business is, but it's one of their large businesses that's growing very quickly. Um, yeah, I mean, they're like the base layer. I think even Mark, well, I know Mark Zuckerberg said that literal electricity is going to become the bottleneck if it's not already the bottleneck of AI development. So, like we just simply don't have enough energy. Brookfield is one of the companies who's like, "We can solve that. " And they're building it. Like they have a 30 I think it's like a $30 billion power agreement now with Microsoft. No, I think that one might have been 10 billion. They have a $30 billion agreement with Intel and they just signed I think it was like another $20 billion deal with France to build France's AI infrastructure. So they're Yeah, they're doing like deals in the tens of billions. It was funny because Bruce Flat, the CEO of Brookfield, was on a podcast recently. And Brookfield has I think right now they have around 150ish billion dollars of dry powder that they can put to work. And the guy was like, "That's a lot of freaking capital. " And then Bruce Flatt, the CEO, was like, "It's actually really not that much. " Like, when you think about it, that's a handful of deals nowadays. Like, we could be deploying a lot more. So, it's a wild time. It I love it, man. and like you and I running stock unlock 2. It's just such an exciting time to be building, to be investing. Uh for everyone who's just joining now, we did drop a lot of secret sneak peeks of the mobile app we are working on. That is at the beginning of the video. I'm checking the time here, Daniel. Do we want to take a couple of these questions? I'll throw up the first one and maybe you can look for a second. Uh we won't be able to get to all of these. I don't know if we have time for a stock analysis here, but if we did not get to your question, we'll try to do so in the next show. And if you comment, uh, actually, yeah, like, comment on the video, uh, push us up in the algorithm. Anyways, Daniel, you got a Patreon fan here. Also, if no one is, if you guys aren't on Daniel's Patreon, you should check that out. Puts out a lot of great content there. And then uh, it gives you like kind of like a private I don't want to say private message channel, but you get put to the front of the stack as opposed to just like being a random YouTube commenter. But yeah, Daniel, you've inspired this person deeply. They hit 200K. Congratulations on that. That's great. And apparently I'm awesome, too. So, that's cool. And congrats on the wedding. Yeah, thank you, Pablo. That's a great milestone. Congrats, man. Um, let's rapid fire these because there's a few. Rob H says, "Are tariffs going to hurt Amazon's e-commerce business? " That's my one concern. I would say, yeah, probably. It's going to hurt like pretty much every US business in my opinion. Um, but I would just say Amazon's e-commerce business is actually not that high margin or profitable. It's not really the profit engine of the company. So, in terms of how much it's going to affect profits, I don't think it's going to very much personally. So, yeah, I don't think that's really a risk. Like, Amazon is so much more than e-commerce. So, so much more. Um, Steuart says they were one of the few, just to add to that quick, they were one of the few companies that did Andrew Jasse said this, they like pre-bought a lot of stuff like thinking that Trump was actually serious on tariffs. And I thought that was super smart, too. Yeah. If they did that, then that's actually going to significantly impact their cash flows in the second quarter probably because they're essentially frontr running their inventory cost a lot. So, I would not be surprised if Amazon's cash flows in the second quarter like take a huge dip. The market may freak out about that, too. And if it does, then, you know, that's it's good for us. I'll buy more. Bring it on. Let's go. That would be such a silly thing to tank the stock on, but if it happens, so be it. Um Stuart says, "That's a good point, but thing to remember is that Amazon exists in many countries outside of the US. " Also true. It's the US putting up walls. you know, Amazon shipping to other countries like Canada, not going to be affected. Yeah. And if you're like a third party seller, too, as opposed to like an Amazon basics, I I'm just saying I don't know how the tariff affects you there. Like what if you're a seller in Europe selling on Amazon? Like I don't know if Amazon's the one that's eating that margin or not. Yeah, also true. Also very true. Uh Lola says, "Cyber security, I think people are sleeping on security. As everything moves to the cloud, it's going to grow a lot. I definitely agree. Cyber security is only going to grow. Like that that's going to be huge. Yeah. Quick comment from an engineer here. If anyone is in security, I am so sorry for you. Um like Daniel, the amount of security issues that AI has brought, it's basically taking like every single security vulnerability and instead of having to go like the dark web or like weird forums and like disguise your name and mask your IP, I don't do this by the way, so that the Fed doesn't catch you. uh you can just query an AI model and like they're not safeguarding them and you could like jailbreak them. It's you're doing the Lord's work. Please don't quit your job. We need you. And I could not agree more with this comment. It is a very tricky industry to understand though. So I stick to the bigger players on that one for investment. Yeah. And Google with Whiz, they may become one of the large cyber security companies soon, which I actually think is good for their business. like you know in 10 years we may look back on this whiz acquisition and be like wow yeah that was actually a steal but we'll see Google historically has done well with big acquisitions yeah I talked about that in one of my YouTube videos when they acquired YouTube I think it was doing 15 million in revenue and they paid 1. 6 6 billion which was 100 times sales looked insane at the time. Fast forward to today and it's like that was an absolute steal. So it's like Google has a good track record. I think people should let them cook, you know, see what happens. They got the cash, so let them do it. Uh, next comment. Amazon and Google are still within the top five largest companies in the world, so I wouldn't say people are sleeping on them, but yeah, you guys are likely right. I mean, yeah, I agree. Obviously, everyone knows about these companies. I think what Jake was saying with the term sleeping was like you're people are still underestimating how large these companies could get in the future. Is that kind of what you were saying? Yeah. And in a very friendly way, I just respectfully disagree. Like I think when I use the word sleep, it's relative to their current valuation of where they will be. So whether they're like bottom five or top five, like I do think people are sleeping on this. Like I I don't think anyone's understanding or talking about the magnitude of scale that we are about to face with the amount of code that we will be hosting and the inference costs like it has to run somewhere. So yeah, I think people are sleeping on it. Okay. Um yeah, I mean I think that's good. What about you? Yeah. No
Outro
dude. I'm good. We were rocking that 69. uh live viewers, which is nice. Uh just went over 70, but unfortunately, we're at the end. If you are just joining, we do this once a month. Check out the channel. If you don't know this guy over here, you've been living under a rock, Canada's number one YouTuber by subscriber count. If you don't know me, uh that's right. I'm kind of like the back office guy, but Daniel's business partner, and we have been building Stock Unlock for over four years now, which is wild. Uh pop back to the beginning of the video to see the sneak peeks we did on the mobile app, which is coming out, and we appreciate everyone's continued support. We are cooking a lot of crazy features. We're actually keeping our lips, we are biting our lip a bit on everything we're building cuz some of it's just secret. So, we're not even telling you guys everything. We got a company of eight people now. Anyways, I think that's it for me. Daniel, any final words here before we do the weekend sendoff? No, I think I'm good. Just thank you everyone for tuning in and we'll see you next month, I guess. All right, take care everyone. Have a great weekend and we'll see you later.