Monster Sentiment Shift
49:05

Monster Sentiment Shift

TheChartGuys 14.04.2026 2 676 просмотров 286 лайков

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Can the turn around in stocks lead to risk on in crypto? Weekly down trend resistances being tested. CRCL and crypto stocks rip. We've got a wealth of free resources to help you master the art of trading. See how we can help at https://www.chartguys.com/discover-more

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Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)

Hey everybody, I'm charting man Dan with the chart guys. Bitcoin bulls testing 76,000 resistance rejecting initially. I'm going to let you know what the red flags are as the broader market is ripping in meltup mode back to all-time highs. Let's talk about what needs to happen from here and potential game plans both for the bulls and the bears. Learn how to trade stocks, crypto, and hype sectors with a global chat room led by professional traders, as well as daily live streams at chartguys. com. All right, I'm freshly back from the gym. If you're thinking I look extra jacked, feel free to click like buttons, ask questions, and I'll get to those in just a moment. So, here's the NASDAQ monthly chart. Does anything look wrong with this chart? know is as bullish as you can get for monthly consolidation and we're heading up towards all-time highs. We are getting this is the most hated rally I've ever seen in my life just because everybody was so sure because of the headlines that we were forming a long-term top that oil was going to rip and that the market was going to pull back another 10 to 30%. Technical analysis told us there were no red flags longer term at this point and the back burner wins. QQQ first daily oversold monthly higher lows set all-time highs back in play. Yesterday was something very important for me in terms of believing bulls. So, if you watched the broader stock market video over the weekend, which you should because that is very relevant for crypto, in my opinion, crypto is still secondary to technical analysis of the broader market. But if you followed that weekend video, we were looking for two things. Number one, next consolidation we see, what is the response to hourly oversold conditions? Are we trading like back burners? Are we trading as if we're in a bull market again? NASDAQ futures opened, we kissed hourly oversold and that was the low and it's been nothing but straight up since then. That is a huge confidence builder for me because that tells me we are trading as if we're in blue sky breakout. Back burners are working and we're not in blue sky breakout. Number two was when semis consolidate do other sectors pick up the slack? And the answer was yes. Financial sector daily bull flag confirmed. Software stocks trying to put in a longerterm bottom. They still have work to do, but yesterday was a big day for them. Other sectors stepped up. So I keep laying out what do bulls need to do? And they keep doing exactly that. And so my next logical step yesterday was okay, we're getting everything that the bulls want. And I made the post again. I'm so I am personally so convinced that it is stocks that all of our crypto decisions, not all of them, but stock technical analysis first, NASDAQ and the S& P 500 and then we zoom into crypto from there. But I was posting in the crypto chat room about the stock market. We are not seeing a clear shift to risk on bottom of the barrel names yet. Quantum, a whole list of names that had massive runs a year plus ago and have been slow bleeding since. Many crypto stocks being part of that. But so far, bulls are getting everything they want from the broader market. Everything that I just told you. Okay. So, what's the next most logical step? A shift to risk on. So, I posted on Twitter yesterday. You know, the next big check mark for stock bulls, they want Bitcoin to break 76,000 to continue to get signs for risk on. And I was even confident enough to start grabbing risk on positions. Quantum NQ grabbed at the end of the day yesterday. Big followrough. Uranium, OKLO, big gap up. Robotics, STRV, solid day. So, I just started grabbing risk on. And what you will see in this kind of environment is you can't wait for your ideal entry. If I waited for an ideal entry on all those names like I'm going to wait for hourly consolidation or whatever it was, I missed the trades. You get to a point where you can see that the bulls are so aggressive that you just jump in and you manage your risk. You place a stop-loss that's based on a dollar risk amount. But you sometimes, you know, many times, the majority of the time, I say, "This is the setup that I want. The trade's either going to come to me or I skip it and I don't care. " But in certain market environments when things get fast and aggressive, you jump in with the momentum. The commodities, gold, silver, and oil to start. Those are the kinds of setups where you can wait for back burners, but also jumping in on the momentum. you

Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)

know, 2017 crypto, I was jumping in momentum all the time, just market buying into big bull moves. So, it's a lot of people are timid to do so because we're only two and a half weeks off of the bottom and they weren't fully convinced that it's meltup mode again. But, as soon as I saw the NASDAQ and the S& P 500 set a daily higher low with hourly oversold on bad news and keep ripping, risk on. So, what does that mean for crypto and Bitcoin? Well, we double talked. That's not a red flag for me in itself. And what I'm going to say right now sounds a little counterintuitive. As a bull, I almost welcome that rejection. Why? Why would I welcome that rejection? I would rather double top than break by 2% into a pullback. I want shorts to build up. I'm confident that the NASDAQ and the S& P 500 are going back to all-time highs. We could see daily consolidation before then. We could even see weekly consolidation before then, but I have conviction that's where we are headed. And so with that, I would expect monthly bounces to get some follow-through in Bitcoin and Ethereum. And the monthly bounces are what are trying to get going right now. I want as many shorts to build up as possible because I want followth through on the break. I don't want to go 76 to 775. I 80. And so the red flag for me would be losing daily EMA 12. So we had a rejection, then we held it, then we held it. So I just want to keep holding daily EMA 12. If we need to pull back and set a daily higher low and the NASDAQ and the S& P 500 need to pull back and form a daily higher low, that's okay with me. If we lose daily EMA 12, it's a red flag for me. So, I am two days ago, I said, referring to the stock market, I'm only looking long. I'm only buying higher lows. eliminating half of my brain. I'm no longer looking short until the bears prove something to me on the daily time frame because it looked like we were heading into meltdown. And so crypto, in my opinion, it's also the kind of thing where if I'm only looking at the crypto charts, I am a lot more confident as a bear than with the backdrop of knowing what the NASDAQ and all these other sectors and risk on is doing in stocks. And so I'm hoping that there's a lot of tunnel vision crypto traders shorting at resistance that are just going to get stopped out and be fueled to 80,000. All that said, it's very easy for me personally to say I'm okay with a rejection and a pullback because I'm very comfortably profitable in the position that I'm taking that I took on the Ethereum drop that I've been holding for two months, maybe more than that. So, easy for me to say I'm comfortably profitable. You know, a bull that bought yesterday is not nearly as comfortable. So, I understand that aspect of things as well, but I got no red flags. It's okay for me to reject initially if we can form, you know, even a 4 hour higher low. So, I just want buildup shorts. Come on in shorts. We're double topping. Let's go short it here. This is great. So, that's my mindset. It is still a potential bare flag. Again, we're doing the same thing as last time. Initial bounce, weekly higher low, and now the higher high. It's possible that same thing happens. So, you know, I can't sit here and say bulls are safe. We also have to keep in mind even if we do get my scenario, build up some shorts, stop them out up to 80,000, then we go to the monthly chart and we got to remind ourselves anything under 98,000 is just a monthly lower high. So bulls have a lot of work to do. And again, if the if everything looked like Bitcoin, I wouldn't be nearly as bullish. It's the context of everything else and looking for crypto to try and be laggered bulls. ETH, same deal. Double top, little bit more bull break follow through, but not much. And again, now pulling back to 4hour EMA 12. Bulls are hoping 15minute oversold, which we just hit. Did we hit it earlier? Again, these are Yeah, we just hit it now. So, bulls are hoping 15minute oversold can mark the 4our higher low off EMA 12. and that will

Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00)

keep resistance in play. And so if I'm doing Ethereum, it's this base that needs to hold. If this holds, we're within striking distance of resistance. If we lose it, red flags, bare flag. So, and again, monthly chart, ETH had a monthly stairstep drop, lower high every single month for seven months. That did just break. The monthly bounce is technically underway. And the question into the summer is how much bounce retracement can we see before the most likely scenario of a monthly lower high shapes up. So I'm still, you know, at this point, what's my target for my remaining swing position of ETH? Stop under that low. I'm looking 3,000 plus, but I can adjust that game plan. I just want to see bears confident. And the current price action today keeps bears confident. There's a skunk nearby. Fresh skunk. Not this kind. So, build up the bears, stop them out. Let's see if the bulls can do that into the end of this week. ETHBTC is a potential rising wedge. We keep breaking bull with no follow through. So, this was a scenario where we led. It's the same thing that keeps happening when we're going up, Ethereum's leading, and then when we start consolidation, it pulls back more. It's just a leveraged version of Bitcoin. It's going to go up more than pull back more than Bitcoin. Uh, that's what this chart keeps showing us. And again, as far as a bigger picture shift here, it's got to be a two-month higher low and go to that long-term trend change. So, ETHBTC has a lot of work to do. How about the timing of talking about ZEC for the first time in months last stream? We talked about it in the 270s. I talked about how things are shifting. We're looking for this monthly higher low most likely scenario. There's EMA 12. There's the inside bar. And a few hours later after that stream, we ripped. I didn't get any, but somebody out there did somewhere. What do we like about it? We like the lower highs, the tightening range. I think we looked at the two-day equilibrium that was tightening up. That broke bull again. Monthly lower high is the most likely scenario, but bulls are hoping they can get some follow-through from here. But nice big quick move. We like big quick moves in crypto and again can't stress enough taking partial profit. So there was another one where you have to buy into that momentum to capture that move. You have to buy and it's so hard to do in crypto right now. I fully understand that where you have to buy the resistance break. And the way that I do that comfortably is if I'm buying into momentum, I'm selling partial real quick and I don't kick myself and say, "Oh, I should have held the whole position. " No. The only reason I'm going to buy a break of whatever that resistance was 280. The only reason I would buy a break of 290 at that point is because knowing I'm going to sell half, you know, if I'm in at 290 into the momentum market buy, I'm selling half at 299. That's hardly anything. But that's enough to get my break even down to 281. Stick a break even stop and hope for a longer term move. And if it stops me out, no harm, no foul. So I will enter into momentum, but I am selling partial real quick to drop my cost basis and try and get a break even stop. And so as I mentioned, buying those riskon stocks like I did yesterday into close. Uh that was not those were not my ideal entries at all, but enough to buy into the momentum. give it a shot and then position when we get some follow through. Crypto stocks having a real good day. CRCL, remember we were talking about CRCL back test of this resistance as support and on the weekly that's a successful hold. So weekly higher low is now set and any swing traders that's got to hold. So 84s are now the most important support. And the question is, are we just going to tighten up and form a weekly lower high or can the bulls confirm the weekly trend change? Admittedly, I'm not trading CRCL because

Segment 4 (15:00 - 20:00)

I do not have the attention span to be dedicating towards fully following this uh bill. And so knowing that I don't have the attention to dedicate to that, I'm just going with things that don't have significant news events looming. That's costing me some money on this move, but that's my decision. So, we'll see how CRCL continues to play from here. some of the old school miners. Riot. So, Riot just broke weekly resistance, trying to get up to five, six month highs. Riot's longer term is trying to shift things here. If bulls are able to head back up towards 24, I mean, that's getting to the highest level in four plus years, trying to put in a long-term bottom. CLSK is more of a long-term equilibrium. Trying to get that continuing to tighten up. Other names like coin still not impressive. Tightening weekly range get over weekly E MA12 to prove something. BMR not impressive. So there are definitely names that are standing out stronger in the short term. I am impressed with Riot on the longer term. Hut that was a big move. Has hut shifted to do the AI thing, data center thing? I mean, you can make the argument that's a cup and handle on the monthly. Generally, I like the sides of the cup to be closer together, but All right, I'm reading the chat room. So, can I please look at crypto? What's up, Derek? crypto and give examples where I might have taken day trades today or yesterday? So, yeah, it would you would have to be watching the stock market and have the stock market give you confidence of risk on meltup to market buy into momentum in crypto. Because again, if you put me in solitary confinement and you don't tell me anything about stocks and you show me these crypto charts, I wouldn't be entering into bullish momentum in all of them, in any of them. The only way I have that conviction is being aware of what the NASDAQ is doing. So, don't beat yourself up on missing this move because it was a tricky one for sure. and confidence came out of nowhere because it was derived from elsewhere. That's a good that's a quote. That's a quotable clip. Confident. What' I say? Confidence came out of nowhere because it was derived from elsewhere. So it wasn't Oh, these charts look really strong. I mean, I like the ZEC chart, but even Bitcoin, Ethereum, not screaming strength or anything. Just had conviction for rotation into risk on names. And someone asked me in the tweet that I made, you know, what if what if we reject blah blah. And I said, let's just give it 36 hours because I was pretty confident that we were going to head up to at least test 76 in the next 36 hours. and it did it in 18, but it is a double top. So, keep an eye on the NASDAQ. Does the NASDAQ stay healthy? Sure looks like it's still. Can that confidence continue to help boost crypto bulls to help convince crypto bears to cover? We'll see. But it's entirely possible. We're talking about the NASDAQ and the S& P 500 all-time highs later this week. Futures. All-time high 1. 3% for the S& P 500. Just a face melter. Hey, SS and Robert. Thanks for the ego boost, Lauren. Lauren, right? You have to say it that way. Lauren, what's RDW?

Segment 5 (20:00 - 25:00)

What is with you people coming on crypto streams and asking for stock analysis? I just These are crypto streams, right? Clearly titled. I just spent all yesterday, yesterday morning streaming about stocks, taking ticker requests. Thanks, Lauren. Lauren's the bouncer now. Nice. short on Doge risk free. Nothing wrong with that. That's a way bigger pullback than everybody else. Risk-free is the way to be. I'll give you an OQ trade review just because that can be applicable to crypto. So, I did this before I went to the gym. IQ monster morning ripper news. So, I'm already in a swing. I want to day trade it because I know an hourly higher low is the most likely scenario. Okay, so I'm scouting an hourly higher low. I look at the five minute clear downtrend and say, "All right, I'm about to leave. I'm going to give it an attempt. " And I was sitting right here. Let's go for proof. We got a whole chat room if you want to check it out. Oops. Going to make an INQ hourly higher low attempt if this one minute bare flag lacks follow through. Here's the one minute bare flag. We break it new low by a couple of pennies. I don't see any follow through. I'm in. I buy. I put my stop 3359 down here. And I'm looking to sell half over 34. We pop over 34. I sell half. Now I got a risk-free stop 3359. I go to the gym. I don't have to think about anything. I either nailed an hourly higher low or I stop out not losing a dollar. Turns out I nailed the hourly higher low. And now currently my swing position I did sell some more when I got back and now my swing position is 50% larger than it was this morning because I still have a quarter of the day trade position left. So maybe I just swing. If we close at the high of the day, I'll just swing a larger swing. But uh that's how you trade shorter term. I know the longer term most likely scenario. I zoom into the shorter term time frames. I pick a spot where it's a decent riskreward. I position to get risk-f free. Leave the computer. Let it play out. So let's now let's do a what if on Bitcoin. What if I'm looking for a 4 hour higher low? Well, I probably would have already been in on the Bitcoin or the ETH back burner, but let's go with the fiveminute downtrend guide. So, from here, I could do a number of things. Do I want to be aggressive or conservative is the first question. If I want to be conservative, I wait for the bulls to confirm a five-minute uptrend. and the first confirmed fiveminute uptrend. I could then say, okay, that's the 4 hour high or lower. I'm wrong. Use that level as a stop. If we get some bounce follow through, trim a little bit to get break even. I either nail the 4hour higher low or I stop out. So, that's one way to approach it. A more aggressive way would be the same thing. If this fiveminute bare flag confirms with no follow-through, I long. And then if we make a move up and break the five minute lower highs, I exit partial. So what do I mean by no follow through? We're starting to get followrough. I would need to get back to the top of this fivem minute candle real quick. Pretty much the one minute bounce would need to get going. I need to know what Bitcoin is doing. the NASDAQ is doing. Clear relative weakness to the NASDAQ. So that is now enough followthrough. So I would not call that a five minute bare flag no follow through. I would not make an entry. My finger would have been on the trigger market by seeing a bear break no follow through. I want to break it and then within a minute or two you start the bounce. So, I'd just be watching the five-minute downtrend, looking for a spot where I can say that's the 4hour higher low or

Segment 6 (25:00 - 30:00)

I'm wrong. And we're right on EMA2. So, I know this is when I'm interested. This is where I pay attention. And it's just waiting patiently to pick a spot. Might have to wait for Bitcoin to hit 15-minute oversold. That's something it happens with gold and silver and it happens with Bitcoin and altcoins. Many times the altcoin will hit an oversold level that I'm watching, but Bitcoin hasn't yet. And so, Bitcoin gets to 15minute oversold, but that means ETH 15-minute RSI gets down to 24. That sometimes happens where it's big daddy that's driving the ship has to get to the oversold level, not just the individual altcoin. But only the most aggressables are looking for a 4 hour high or low entry right now. And I wouldn't blame anybody who doesn't want that trade because again, we just double topped. And crypto doesn't have anywhere near the conviction that stocks currently have still. And if we look at Bitcoin divided by the NASDAQ, it will show us got to get over weekly EMA 12 in terms of relative strength. So, we've been relatively weaker. Prove to us this is different by confirming the weekly uptrend and getting over EMA 12 resistance. And the only way you're going to do that is if you break the double top at 76 and squeeze some shorts out and follow through towards 80. So, if you want to stay skeptical crypto, that's fine by me. I understand it. But I'm in bull mode. I'm looking for longs. I'm looking for higher lows. And again, there's just so many stronger things in stocks, which is where the majority of my focus is. I mean, memory stocks. Wow. MU is going for it. But yeah, I mean, I could just pull up a ton of even just even the big like Google and Amazon, they're just ripping off the lows. So, we just need to see this confidence trickle into crypto. Crypto is the uh disliked. I'm trying not to insult stepchild. I don't want to insult step adopted kids. redheads. The ginger stepchild of the market world. The overweight ginger step. Let's insult everybody. There's never a shortage of animals in this yard. Although we're in a severe drought. We need some rain. Bad. Yeah. Again, trading crypto for me doesn't make sense. Trading the ETFs makes more sense, but the fees just don't make sense. If I can trade OQ fee, a name that has way more volatility than most of crypto today, why would I do anything else? Dollar volume today is where's my volume? Dollar volume 50 million500 million billions. Billions of dollars. 1. 5 billion dollars traded today. How much profit today? Hundred million dollars. Percent chance of Bitcoin monthly equilibrium. So, we don't have nearly enough information to make an educated guess. I mean, if I'm going to ignore that little wick and just view this as a stairst step like ETH, we would need a 50% retracement. So, what's my confidence that we're going to bounce over 93,000, which is 19 25%. I mean, I'd probably go 40% and if we can break 76 with some followthrough, I'd kick that up to 50 55%. Yeah, more likes.

Segment 7 (30:00 - 35:00)

Hood is a number another risk on name trying to get rotation. Gotta. One day is not enough. Got to keep it going. Tron, trade nation. What's that? Monthly EMA 12 rider. Keep it simple. There are very few crypto names that have been holding monthly EMA2 support for years, but Tron is one of them. And we're up at weekly resistance getting over 3206. The one thing that you got to be cautious of, again, let's put on our bare glasses to make sure we don't get surprised. We did see a bear break, no follow through. We do not want to see a bull break, no follow through, because then we got to worry about a megaphone. Again, there's no sign of it. It's just if there are going to be red flags, how would they develop? That would be how they develop. But, I mean, it looks fine. daily EMA 12 rider and monthly EMA 12 rider. And obviously the next major level is up at 3703 more data centers. Thank you. I mean, pretty much you could tell if you look at a crypto stocks chart, the strongest ones all pivoted render. So potential for an equilibrium to keep tightening up because anything under 271 is a lower high. So I'm viewing this Well, we did get a lower low there. 118 112. So we got a base. Do we confirm a daily downtrend? Not officially yet. So if we confirm a daily downtrend from here, a more clear one, which would be a head and shoulders, then I'm going to be viewing it as an equilibrium where I'll be viewing that as a lower high. Then we have to form a higher low compared to 112. And then we watch how does I mean we just did this. Then we watch how does the tightening range break. This one broke bare. So potentially just the same thing shaping up. If the bears are going to be confident, a longer term lower high is set. That daily downtrend confirming is needed. This was a dinky pivot here. Not really meaningful. So, it's got to be a more clear daily lower high and lower low for bears to have confidence in that longerterm lower high. So, I So, that's a bullish sign. crypto for crypto interest is elsewhere. I understand your sentiment in saying that, but not always. No, because you could say that's a bullish sign for cannabis because interest is elsewhere. Well, interest has been elsewhere for years. So, not necessarily. What you want to see is so much strength in stocks that everybody says, "Oh my god, I was left on the sideline. I missed my entries. I got to buy the things that haven't ripped yet. " That's the part of the bounce that we're in right now, which is why these risk names are ripping the last two days. This is what OKLO has done the last eight months. This is what NQ just slow bleeds. Nothing. And then yesterday into today, oh my god, it's time. Put my money to work. I missed Amazon and Google. I got to go find the things that haven't run yet. The majority of traders that made it in crypto that I know did move to stocks and futures. And by majority, I mean 90% plus. The ones that had the skill set to be full-time traders went to where the opportunity was. HBR lead bear. I mean, we're testing the lows here. Anything that's testing the lows obviously standing out for its weakness. weekly EMA 12 rider. I assume not even touching it, but just clear weekly lower highs. Keep it simple. Absolutely nothing changes is if 95 is resistance. We just keep setting these lower highs, lower highs, lower highs.

Segment 8 (35:00 - 40:00)

All right. XRP BMR XRP. So again, same thing. Bulls aren't proving anything here. You know, I look at this chart and there is nothing to be bullish about, but we know that can change quickly, but it's got to change quickly. Got to Where's the bull volume? have be setting volume alerts to be watching for a quick shift. But the simple statement here is if weekly EMA 12 is resistance, resistance, nothing changes. If you want to try and put in a longer term bottom, you've got to get over weekly EMA 12 resistance. And so that's a ways away. I mean, that's at 147 right now. So we got to go 10% just to get there. Thanks for the tip, speculator BMNR. Weekly EMA2 reject, reject, and price level. So if we can't get over 2385, we're not going anywhere and it's going to be a weekly equilibrium. Is ETH still dropping? So now it's getting falling wedgie. So again, if I'm aggressive and looking for that 4hour higher low, I'm treating this as a falling wedge. And the way that I trade falling wedges is on our YouTube channel, but I buy breaks of support and I sell half into fiveminute EMA12 and I reload half on a bare break and I sell half into fiveminute EMA 12. What if it just falls through support? Then I stop out on whatever dollar risk I'm willing to take. But BMR is real weak. Giving back everything today. man to give to be red on the day. I mean, ETHA is still up a bunch. Not a bunch, but still up 2. 3% and BMR is red. So, there's relative weakness there. Space for an hourly lower high next bounce. That's a hard rejection. If BTC and ETH were rejecting that hard, we'd be trading down at. I mean, we're not that far away, but we'd be down at where we closed. We'd be another one and a half% lower on BTC. There's relative weakness. Long story short, got to hold this higher low. If we lose that level, that zone, weekly lower highs is being set and we're just going to look to tighten up sideways. If we can hold that level, then maybe we can try again. Same thing for again, that's what I'm talking about with crypto. We got to hold daily EMA 12 to try and try again at resistance. But yeah, keep an eye on BMR divided by ETHUSD or ETHA because they trade the same hours and that will show you that BMR has had relative weakness for the last six months and certainly today. And just treat it like it's a chart. Do you want to go long this chart? No. You got to see bulls change. BMNR showing us relative strength because otherwise why would I want to be in BMR over ETHA. There's no reason. The only reason I would want to be in one over the other is because it's outperforming. So you have to see signs on this chart that the trend is changing and that it is starting to outperform. But right now it's business as usual underperforming. realistic weekly percentage gain to achieve as a day trader with a small account. I mean, it's such a hard question because it's

Segment 9 (40:00 - 45:00)

feast and famine. My entire career is feast and famine where I'll, you know, I'll make 4,000% in a year and then I'll make 10% the next year as capital is much larger and it's a very different game as capital grows. But there are significant blue sky breakout hype euphoria opportunities and then there's regular market environment and you can't expect to have an average return that's you know my average return is not reflective at all of my returns. So it's a very hard question but your goal should be to beat the S& P 500 when you're starting. That's it. Because if you can't beat the S& P 500 you shouldn't be trading. So start there. So that means 1%. No, that means point go 5% a week on average for a year and you just double the S& P 500's average return. I'm definitely bullish the stock market. crypto not as conviction, but I've got my directional bias, that's for sure. Again, I want the bears to load up 74 to 76. Just keep shorting. Last micro dose maybe two weeks ago. Maybe three. Definitely will pick up in frequency with the spring and summer. Volume doesn't matter on SPY and QQQ. I can't eloquently tell you why. I just know that I made that observation in 2018 and I've never looked back. You do not have to have volume in the indices to go up. I just responded to somebody's post pointing that out. And you're like, "Oh, NQ only had this much volume yesterday, 500,000 shares. " And then I went back at the 2025 Vshape. And I said, "Okay, but what about this day and this day and this day that all had comparable volume. You can't cherrypick data. Volume doesn't matter in the indices. I don't know if it's because of the ETF structure. I don't know why, but it doesn't matter. " And I got that rule in 2018. Why 2018 spy weekly chart 2018 2017. Look at this volume. Look at this grind up. Straight up. Slow and steady, but straight up. This is the average volume just pittering out. The average volume at the bottom was 647 million. And by the time we're up here, the average 20 week volume is half of that. that. You don't need volume to go up. Some rules you just accept. They just changed pattern day trade rule today. So, it's not official in play today, but it's on its way. BCH, it's got to be a falling wedge. It's the bull's only hope. We're going to know in a week. Within a week. Bull's got to get over 450 for this to be starting to break bull. Honestly, the more altcoins I look at, the less confident in Bitcoin I am. I mean, you know, my opinions on all coins. There's going to be some short-lived opportunity, but it's penny

Segment 10 (45:00 - 49:00)

stocks. MSTR isn't standing out in any meaningful way to me. Just a tightening weekly range. Same as BMR, weekly E MA12. If we do not break 15227, nothing changes and we keep tightening up. Prove it. Break resistance. Change the weekly trend for the first time in nine months. Show me something is changing. If I can say this has happened for the first time in nine months, that's significant, but it's only if you get over that weekly resistance. Day trading is definitely hard, but I like it. Do I consistently beat the S& P 500? Yes. But again, you look at my average returns, I'm up, you know, 8,000 plus percent in the last nine years. So, I can do nothing for the rest of my life and beat the S& P 500. But it's because of these little windows of opportunity. Thanks, Gary. I compared the current bounce in the market to 2022 in the weekend video and we've now retraced much more significantly. But that was one of my things. we're either going to do this or we're going back to all-time highs and these are the things we need to be watching for that are going to give us the clues. And both of the clues got bull answers. to keep us in meltup mode. All right, we're going to wrap it up. Yep, the burden is still definitely on the Bitcoin bulls, but again, if stocks Stock market euphoria and people realizing they were very wrong is likely going to continue seeping out into other places. And the bulls just have to hope that crypto catches that wave. All coins have fallen out of favor so much. But if Euphoria truly has returned, it will go place to place. Bring the money here, run it, take the profit, and run it. And I will certainly let you know if there's any red flags in the broader market, but that's not bearish. You can say that much. All right, do good things. Appreciate you watching again. And we're going to get this information on Bitcoin within a few days. We are either going to break this double top or we're going to lose daily EMA 12 by the weekend. Three more days. Nah, by the end of the weekend. Prove it, bulls. Again, I wouldn't be longing here. I wouldn't have enough confidence to long here. It's because I'm already in a position from way back when. Already talked about circle. Thanks again. See you next time.

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