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Meet Kevin 01.05.2026 69 753 просмотров 1 895 лайков

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🚨 Couponcode GoodByePowell expires May 8 at 11:59pm. 🔥 Alpha Membership: https://MeetKevin.com 🤑 ReinvestAI: https://Reinvest.co/ --- 🥰 Socials 🥰 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Twitter / X: https://twitter.com/realMeetKevin TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@realmeetkevin Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/meetkevin 🚀 Membership, Alerts, & Courses 🚀 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Email Staff@MeetKevin.com for course requests or support. 🏡 ReInvestAI & HouseHack Inquries 🏡 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Considering investing in HouseHack/Reinvest? Read the offering circular, including disclosures, at https://househack.com - this video cannot be a solicitation. Email ir@HouseHack.com for AI requests or investment support. 😇 Affiliate Links (Paid) 😇 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ 📜 Some links are affiliate links and I may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. ➡️ Life Insurance: My favorite life insurance you can get in as little as 5 minutes! https://MeetKevin.com/life ➡️ Webull: My favorite stock app for charting and trades! https://MeetKevin.com/webull ➡️ HSA: Tax Deductions via a Health-Savings Account: https://MetKevin.com/hsa ➡️ Best banking app: https://MeetKevin.com/bank ➡️ Best Travel Credit Card: https://MeetKevin.com/capitalone ➡️ Single Stock to ETF Exchange: https://MeetKevin.com/cache ⚖️ Important Disclaimers ⚖️ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ 📜This video or description does not constitute personalized financial, legal, real estate, investment, or other advice (we don’t know your situation, so it's impossible to provide you personalized advice). Therefore, evaluate your own suitability for any perspective shared. Kevin does NOT make personalized recommendations. 📜Assume any referenced product or service is a paid promotion, though Kevin does his best to let ya know if a mention is paid or unpaid. While Kevin’s experience with a product or service may be good, your experience may suck - Kevin can’t be responsible for that; so be warned & conduct your own diligence. 📜Any mention of stocks or analysis may be reliable as generic information today, but not tomorrow or even hours later. Recognize that businesses and people change rapidly. Therefore, the accuracy of information cannot be guaranteed. 📜Kevin Paffrath is licensed with the California Department of Real Estate under 01893132. His broker is House Hack, license 02236137. House Hack, inc. does business as Reinvest and/or HouseHack. ReinvestAI may make mistakes and is not guaranteed to boost your net worth. 🛑 Sponsorships 🛑 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ We are NOT taking sponsors at this time.

Оглавление (5 сегментов)

Segment 1 (00:00 - 05:00)

Well, holy schnitle. The market is going nuts and there's a lack of white on my face. This is crazy. We've got to talk about exactly what's going on and why this is going to be and continues to be the most frustrating rally. We literally just hit our triple Q's price target. We've been bullish since the beginning of April on the taco. So many people got mad at me in the comments. They're like, it's so stupid to go bullish. And boom, today we hit it. The 675 course member triple Q's price target boy. And we're even seeing the breakout on Google. We called. Now, what I'd like is to just apologize. I didn't post yesterday. I really wanted to, but we got really overwhelmed. We were not only finishing our PCAOB audit for House Hack, which anybody who knows what a PCAOB audit is, it's like the most extreme colonoscopy a company can go through. We're done. We passed. Everything's great. That's wonderful. No issues. That's great. That's now behind us. But in addition to that, poor little J man had to go to the hospital. He's okay, but when he gets sick, he, you know, his asthma goes crazy, and we can't even help him with the nebulizer here, and it just gets bad fast. But he's better now. He's actually home. Here's a picture of him from about 10 minutes ago. Uh, it actually looks like he's holding a coupon code for those of you who um well, you know, I didn't post yesterday. Yesterday was supposed to be coupon expiration. I'm like, how do I not post videos on coupon expiration day? So, I did kick the can down the road on this a few days. But anyway, he's holding the coupon code goodbye Powell. What's actually interesting is J, whose last name starts with a P, my last name, obviously. JP, same initials as Don Powell, may be named after Jerome Powell. Okay, some of you people are going to get pissed about that, but oh well. Kathy Wood didn't like that when she heard that either. Kathy Wood didn't like Jon Powell that much. She's more of an art laugher kind of guy. Uh but anyway, we need to talk about the market and why I think this is what I call the most frustrating rally for people. So, at the beginning of the month, we had a lot of people are like, "Oh my gosh, you know, this is terrible. This Iran situation is worse. Trump has made this whole situation worse. " Uh on top of Trump's new tariffs after the Supreme Court U-turn, there are a lot of reasons to be negative along with a slowing uh labor market. Uh however, you could see that same negativity get buffeted by good economic data. Uh and this is why we've been bullish not just on the market and hardware, but the next step is going to be software. Uh that's going to be the next phase that's also really going to piss people off. We've been doing analysis on uh a company called Team. Uh, this company is still losing money, but they are up 21% today and they're actually helping push up other software stocks as well. I think we're going to see a lot of reversals like that, not necessarily just on this software company, but a lot of them over the next 5 to 6 months. Hardware the driver now, but understand some of the economic data for a moment. And then I want to show you the ISM and S& Ps that just came out. First of all, capital good orders on Fed day on Jerome Powell day we heard were 3. 3% versus the half% expected for February. That's insane. Uh was that February or March? Anyway, ECI is annualizing out to 3. 6% which is absolutely phenomenal. Uh because we want that to be around 3%. That's how much wages are going. And that was from March. Sorry, not February. Uh that capital good orders number. Uh ECI annualizing out at 3. 6% stable. This is why Jerome Pal says there's, you know, the labor market is really not a source of wage inflation right now or broader inflation right now. Uh while wages are still going up at target, you get about 70% of a pass through. So 70% of 3. 6 is still elevated, but it passes through about 2. 5% which is roughly where inflation is, right? Continuing claims came in yesterday at the lowest level in the last 50 years and frankly earnings are dominating. I'm going to show you some earnings as well uh in just a moment and I want to show you why some companies are really dominating with earnings. But first, understand this. When you go into a report uh like the manufacturing PMIs, I'll just give you some highlights here. Uh and I think this is what you like to subscribe to the channel for. So, if you haven't yet, please do that. But I try to go into the nitty-gritty weeds and you know, I try to find the little gold gems, the gold nuggets for you. And ultimately, you don't have to follow my trade alerts, my, you know, short-term or medium stocks to buy list, which are, you know, those over the next 3 months, 6 to 8 to maybe 12 months, and then of course the long-term buy. You don't have to follow that. Uh, look for the nuggets and make your own decision, right? But anyway, you get those in the course membership, of course, at meet. com. But anyway, the overall economy continued expansion for

Segment 2 (05:00 - 10:00)

the 18th month in a row. The new orders index expanded for a fourth straight month after four straight readings in contraction. So in fairness, we had Jan, Feb, March, April, all positive. And during the war, you know, during March, I'm like, man, you know, we're at 3 months now of positive data. Now we're four months of positive data. And I remember looking at this, I'm like, the economy is rebounding in 2026. You know, people had nervousness in October, November, December, you know, because some of these were in multiple months of contraction. And the labor market wasn't great. We've seen a lot of real rebound in the first quarter. Again, GDP holding up at 2%. That was really not expected. I mean, technically, the economist surveys had a little higher, but broadly people thought there was a real risk. We were going to have a left tail risk there and fall off a cliff. Just basically means come in way lower, right? Excuse me. Okay. So, now uh what else I wanted to point out over here is that look at this commentary. This is why I call this the most frustrating uh rally for people. Like people are mad. Now they've raised capital, but people are mad because they can't deploy it fast enough. It's actually remarkable that you know we our price target of 6 675 was for next Friday. And this morning uh when we were at 667, I'm like folks, we're going up, baby. Like I was straight bullish today. There was not a single negative uh thesis in my alpha report this morning. And yesterday I argued we would be going bullish as well. Now yesterday was interesting because it actually took 90 minutes to start going bullish. Uh and then we ended up almost a full percent on the day. Pretty remarkable. So it took a little bit of institutional dumping to get through. But this is frustrating because look at this. In the second month of the Iran war, 31% of comments were positive. 69% were negative. That's the thing. That's why I call this one of the most frustrating rallies because most, it's totally reasonable. I see it in the comments. I see it at businesses. People are negative about what's going on with Iran. People don't want to be at war. But when people are negative, they slowly capitulate and they come back over to the bull side. And that's why we continue to see new highs after new highs. We'll be updating our NASDAQ 100 price target now that we hit our 675 target uh in the course member live stream. So, we're really excited about that. Uh, but if you scroll down, there are some asterisks to watch for. Uh, a positive asterisk is that demand sentiment was positive on new orders. 1. 6 to 1. 0 ratio of positive to negative comments. So, even though people are overall negative, the orders are still coming in. And then if you actually go down to I think it was labor, was it in this one or the other one? It may have been the other one. This one was a little This is the S& P Global, which is just another company doing a similar. They say gains of production for order books were the steepest gains we've seen in four years. However, they say that this is because companies are trying to get ahead of supply shortages because of the straight of four moves. This is the strongest new orders inflow uplift in output since April of 2022. This is NOT BEARISH. This is bullish. No, like no matter what the reason is, this is pretty bullish right now. More encouragingly, business expectations for output in the year ahead have improved, partly reflecting hopes that the US will be less affected by the war than previously feared. However, unemployment has fallen as firms increasingly grow worried over the need to reduce cost overheads amid an environment seeing rising materials prices. Fair. Jeffrey Gunlock, he, you know, he's a big commodities guy, too. I'll buy more commodities. I think the commodity rush already happened. You know, I called the top of gold when Kevin Worsh got chosen. And uh you know we haven't seen a new high since uh now gold's been doing decent sitting at about 4600. I think that I think my call was January 31st and I think gold topped like what was it? Was it like February 2nd was like within 2 days there January 28? I guess you could probably zoom in. It was somewhere around here. Maybe my dates are off by a couple days but you probably remember when you were there. But you know I think the commodities play is over. That's behind us. That's already happened. really the next play. And I want to show you this because people are looking at these skyrocketing earnings at uh at some of these companies. For example, I look at Amazon. You know, they've grown their product sales by 11. 5%, service sales by 20%. But uh and they've got relatively stable pricing power, but their cash flow is a negative$18 billion, not negative uh $118 million, that's negative 18 billion of free cash flow. and uh you know they had to raise $53 billion of debt. So why is their earnings per share skyrocketing? Well, I'll show you right here on page eight of their financials. Look at this. Anthropic, baby. Anthropic helped juice their earnings adjustments relating to equity investments and private company

Segment 3 (10:00 - 15:00)

of 12 companies of 12. 3 billion. Some of that from the convertibles that they have with Anthropic and some just other equity stakes. So, a lot of this EPS boost you're seeing at Amazon, uh, which you know is up there on the momentum right now and so is Google. A lot of what you're seeing right now is coming from those anthropic gains. I hate to say it, but if you jump on over to Google, take a look at Google. Google right now has been expanding their debt as well a lot. They've stopped doing stock buybacks. But what do you know over here? Wow. other income grew from 11 billion to $37 billion. Huh. It's SpaceX and Anthropic. We ended up uh finding that on the I didn't bookmark it. I really should have bookmarked it. Uh but anyway, it's Anthropic and SpaceX in their actual filings that they're revealing this. So, these are massive equity gains that they're getting from investments into AI and software and those are juicing their earnings per share. So, it's like, you know, why is Google doing so well? Why is Amazon doing so well? Well, part of it because of their juiced investments into software and see this is where people always ask me but cabin, you know, are you putting your money where your mouth is? And the answer is yes. So, House Hack and uh just I'm not saying this, there's no fundra for House Hack right now. This isn't a pitch for House Hack, but House Hack began buying CPUs, right? Processing units, central processing units. We began buying more CPUs than Blackwell chips probably about three two to three months ago. And uh maybe even more than that. But in our course member live stream, I mentioned guys ARM and AMD these are CPU providers. AMD being the cheap sibling of ARM basically. Uh you know there's something going on here. We're buying a lot more CPUs for our inference versus our, you know, training because obviously, you know, Reinvest has a big AI product coming out uh in June. That's, you know, within the next 60 days. And uh it's actually really remarkable because that foreshadowed the skyrocketing of AMD and Intel uh and ARM. I mean, look at this. AMD skyrocketed right through our uh 342 price target, though it might retrace a little bit since it's extended so far. ARM right through our 188 ceiling. It's now at 212. And then Intel has absolutely been a beast as well. Look at that. We're almost at $100 on Intel now. Right through 88. Next pit stop looks like it'll be 106 uh on the lines, if you will. So, um, you know, people then say, "Okay, but Kevin, so like, you know, if you're so bullish, you know, what's the game plan? " Well, in my opinion, the reason people are buying more compute is because software revenues are the next play. You know, you go look at team earnings where they're still losing money. Uh, their top line is fantastic. Their bottom line is AWS. You know, this is the stuff we do in the course member live streams, by the way. This is just sort of like a sample, but this is the kind of stuff we do like every freaking day the market is open almost every day. Um, but um, you know, team for example, they were accelerating their revenues at 21% and everybody's like, "Oh, AI is going to disrupt this company. " Now they're growing revenues at 31% year-over-year on the 3-month and 25% year-over-year on the 9 months. And their gross profit is 85. 3%. It's huge, dude. Huge. Like their costs of goods sold are very low. Now, unfortunately, they have to keep increasing R& D and marketing. Uh, and so there are some other issues with this company, but Fortress balance sheet, massive cash flow. They're buying back twice as much stock as they are issuing in stockcom. That's really important. By the way, people forget that. People forget that one of the reasons companies like software companies can prop their stocks up is because they issue stock comp to their employees who then dump it so they can go buy a house, a boat, or whatever the hell they want to do. It's not necessarily a bearish signal that insiders are dumping. They just want the cash, right? They want to go spend and go on vacation or whatever. Uh, and there's actually a study that insider selling isn't a good leading indicator. Insider buying is Though, you know, a lot of people would argue then the trade desk should be doing quite well because the CEO has been buying. It's still dragging along like an anchor on the floor over here. Anyway, a point is you want to see the company buy back stock so you don't have that selling pressure. If they issue $400 million of stock comp, but they're buying back 900 mil like Adian, Adlassian is, um, so that was a weird misprononunciation. then um you know you're way off setting even if all of those people don't. So

Segment 4 (15:00 - 20:00)

you know those are some of the things just to look for in these sheets things that we teach you know on the channel. So make sure to subscribe, share the vids. But you know to me this still brings this idea of okay Kevin we get it like you've been bullish hardware you've been bullish since the beginning of the month. You say software is next but software is still kind of in the doldrums. I agree. It's probably still going to take about five months, but I think that creates a buying opportunity much like yields. People come and they say, "Hey, Kevin, like you're a real estate guy. Like, come on, man. Yields are like 4. 4% 4. 37 right now. Like, how is that good? " And it's not, but that's actually part of the plan. Excuse me. H stupid lingering cough. Uh, okay. Let me show you the plan. Okay. We're going to take out the whiteboard, take out a nice little red expo marker. We're going to do this together. Okay. So, what's the plan? Well, the plan, rubber band man, is that between in well, I said this back in 2022. If you've been here for a while, you probably remember this. I mentioned in 2022 that interest rates will be lower and I maintain this uh than they've ever been before by 2032 due to deflation, technological deflation. It will be offset by some form of money printing, but basically 2022 to 2032, that's how long it's going to take to actually get rates to normalize and people to go, "All right, inflation really was transitory. " In other words, it was transitory over 10 years, which depending on how you define transitory isn't transitory at all. That's a long period of time. You have to zoom out like on a century to call that transitory, right? But I saw this and I maintain this. You know, we're at 2026, right? I maintain this. So my belief was, all right, if you're going to have a decade for rates to get lower, one of the best things that you could do right now during this window is buy real estate when nobody else wants to buy it. So what did I do in 2022? Well, I started a company called House Hack. You know, DBA Reinvest. The reason it's DBA Reinvest is because we have the Reinvest AI for real estate. We got Reinvest stock AI coming out. Got some free new features coming out for existing course members. like there's a lot. So, a house hack really only defines one portion of the business. But anyway, if you think about it, what this really is, it's a real estate company that's a Trojan horse software company, you know, with our real estate AI. And if you align what I'm actually doing with this company that owns $80 million of free and clear real estate, no bank debt, right? We have obviously the bond debt um but no real uh bank debt you know plus all the other assets the company has. We are using that to build software and grow the real estate portfolio in this window. And to me that's the meta for this decade because nobody really wants to buy real estate right now. It's not sexy. Nobody really wants to buy software right now. It's not sexy because people are like oh interest rates are too high. Uh, AI is going to destroy all software. And on the flip side, I'm like, interest rates are high, other people don't want to buy. It's the perfect time for me to buy. Interest rates are high, I buy. Because when they're low, then everybody gets euphoric like they did in 2021. You know, it's actually funny. If you were watching me during co in April of 2020, I said, "Oh my gosh, prices are going up. " like you course members and even just subscribers were sending me weekly data on your areas, weekly price like closings in your area and we're like, "Oh my gosh, inventory is going up, prices are going up, and everybody's like, "Oh, real estate's going to crash. Every real estate is going to crash. " I went out and I bought 12 properties and people like, "Oh, that's stupid. 2021, 2022, we had this massive real estate boom. It was insane. " Uh, and so you want to buy when it's unpopular to buy. And in my opinion, we're buying real estate when it's unpopular to buy and we're building software when software is unpopular. It's kind of like a wedge deal time to buy software and real estate. And so that's where my thesis is. Hardware first though, uh, because of the CPU transition. So I think a lot of people are going to be really frustrated over a lot of this. And now it makes sense that people are going to, you know, probably take profits going into the weekend or whatever. But, you know, the fluctuations by the minute don't matter here. What matters is there are a lot of bears still on the sidelines that we've been bullish since the beginning of the month. And honestly, it's likely to continue. Third aircraft carrier just left the Middle East. Trump is unlikely to go for strikes again, you know, before midterms. And you've got a beautiful Jay who's healthy, happy Captain America shirt and he's holding up that coupon code for you. Goodbye Powell. So go check that out over at me

Segment 5 (20:00 - 20:00)

meankevin. com. Thank you so much for being here. I love y'all and uh we'll see y'all very soon. — Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. — We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. — Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. — Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.

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