If You're a Palantir Shareholder... Get Ready | $PLTR

Palanteer shareholders have had one of the wildest rides in the entire stock market over the past five years. In February of 2021, it was at $45 a share, which at that time was an all-time high. From there, the stock got completely unloved and went all the way down to below $6 per share. Then went back to Wall Street Darling to AI Supertock, reaching $200 per share. All of this in a span of 5 years. Bulls are calling it the next oracle. Some analysts have price targets that imply tripledigit gains from here and the retail investor community is absolutely obsessed with it. But something is happening that Palunteer shareholders need to pay very close attention to right now. And today I'm going to lay out both sides completely, the bull and the bare side. And then we're going to run the numbers and find out what the stock is actually worth based on my assumptions. So let me start with the basics. Palanteer was founded in 2003 by Peter Teal, one of the co-founders of PayPal. And the company built software that helps organizations, mainly governments and now large corporations, make sense of enormous amounts of data. Think of it as software that takes all the messy, complicated information that big organization has, surveillance data, financial data, logistics data, operations, and turns it into something that we can actually use to make better decisions. Now, for most of its history, Palunteer worked almost exclusively with government agencies, the CIA, the US military, law enforcement, things like that. They helped track terrorists. They helped plan military operations. They worked on some of the most sensitive intelligence programs in the entire world. The government work built the foundation of the company, but also kept it somewhat in the shadows. Most regular investors had never truly heard of them. Then, two things happened. First, they went public in 2020. Second, AI became the biggest story in the stock market. And suddenly, Palunteer was not just a government software company anymore. They were an AI platform company. Their newest product called AIP, which stands for artificial intelligence platform, lets organizations plug large language models directly into existing data and operations. They run something called AIP boot camps where companies come in and within days they have deployed real AI tools into their actual business. The feedback from these boot camps has been extraordinary and the stock has responded accordingly. At its peak, Palunteer was trading at over a 100 times revenue. Not earnings guys, revenue. As a comparison, Microsoft sells for 10 times revenue. So, not only is this an insane multiple if it was earnings, it's actually an insane multiple as revenue. That is one of the most extreme valuations ever attached to a software or any sort of company outside of the dot bubble. Now, the most compelling bull case for Palunteer comes from analysts and investors who believe that this company is building something genuinely unique. An AI operating system for enterprises and governments that will be nearly impossible to replicate or replace once it's embedded. Here's the argument. Palanteer does not just sell software. They sell deeply embedded data infrastructure. When Palunteer goes in an organization, helps them connect all of their data sources and build AI workflows on top of them, that integration goes extremely deep. The longer a customer uses Palunteer, the more their operations become structured around it. The switching costs become enormous. You are not replacing Palunteer. You are replacing the nervous system of your entire organization. That is a genuinely powerful moat if it's real. The bullcase on AI piece specifically is that Palunteer has figured out something that most enterprise AI vendors have not. How to make AI actually work in the real world inside real organizations with real messy data. The boot camp model is brilliant because it removes the biggest barrier to AI adoption which is just getting started. Companies come in skeptical and leave as customers. The revenue growth in the US commercial segment has been accelerating up over 70% year-over-year in recent quarters. Guys, that is not the growth rate of a slow government software company. That is the growth rate of something that's taking off. The government business is also getting a massive tailwind. Defense budgets globally are increasing. The US government is pushing hard on AI adoption across military and intelligence applications. Palanteer has deep relationships and security clearances that take decades to build. A startup cannot walk in tomorrow and compete for those contracts. The moat on the government side is regulatory and relational, two of the most durable kinds. And then the biggest bull argument of all, the AI revolution is just beginning. Palunteer is positioned as the picks and shovels company for enterprise AI not just for one customer

or one industry but for governments and corporations across the entire economy. If AI transforms how organizations operate over the next decade, Palanteer could very well be one of the central infrastructure providers for that transformation. Bulls compare it to Oracle or SAP in the9s. deeply embedded enterprise software that became missionritical for essentially every large organization on Earth and it compounded for decades. I have done my best to give you the strongest possible bull cases. And look, there are real things to love about this business. The AI platform, the government relationships, the boot camp model, the accelerating commercial revenue, these are not nothing. But I'm going to be honest with you now because being honest with people about what I actually see in the numbers, even when it's not what they want to hear, is exactly why this channel exists. And remember, it is my interpretation of things. So, let me walk you through the three most serious bare cases, and then we'll run our analysis. Palunteer is trading at a price that requires you to believe that almost everything goes perfect for a very, very long time. Now, this is something that a lot of people won't even look at, but I look at valuation first. Not to sit there and shut it down, but to say, okay, if this thing is valued very high, what needs to happen in order to justify it? At recent prices, the stock has been valued at somewhere between 75 and 100 times revenue. Again, that's not earnings. Even the most generous assumptions about future growth make it extremely difficult to justify that multiple using any conventional valuation metric. So, let me make this very simple. If you pay a 100 times revenue for a company, you're betting that revenue grows enormously for years, even decades. Also, that margins have to get a lot better. And on top of that, you have to hope there's no meaningful competition. Any one of those assumptions being wrong would be very painful for the stock. The higher the price you pay, the less room you have for error. And at Palunteer's valuation currently, in my opinion and a lot of people's opinion, there's essentially no room for error at all. Guys, bare case number two, Palunteer's moat narrative is extremely compelling, but it's also being tested. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Salesforce are all building enterprise AI platforms. These are companies with enormous distribution networks and enormous financial resources. When Microsoft's Azure adds AI workflow tools that compete with AIP, they're not starting from zero, guys. They're selling to customers who already use Microsoft products every single day. Palunteer's AIP boot camp model is clever, but clever can be copied, especially when you have an end to these companies and government agencies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have. The deep data integration that creates switching costs takes time to build, but competitors are not standing still, especially with the margins that Palunteer has. And if the AI software market ultimately commoditizes the way previous waves of enterprise software did, Palunteer's premium pricing and premium valuation may not survive that transition. And guys, bare case number three. Palunteer has a history of issuing significant amounts of stocks. This is how they pay their employees with stockbased compensation, which sounds extremely reasonable and if you're an employee, you want that until you look at the numbers. Stockbased compensation dilutes existing shareholders. Every new share that's issued to an employee is a share that reduces your ownership percentage as a shareholder. Let me give you an example. Let's say you own 10, there's a company you own and there's 10 shares outstanding. You own one share. You own one out of 10 shares. That's 10% of the company. But then they want to bring some employees in. So they give them two shares as ownership. So 10 shares now becomes 12 shares when they added the two. You still own one, but instead of owning one out of 10, now you own one out of 12, which takes your ownership from 10 down to 8. 33%. Your ownership went down by you doing nothing. Now, Palunteer stockbased compensation as a percentage of revenue has been extremely high in some periods running above 20% of total revenue. That means for every dollar of revenue they generate, they are giving away a significant portion of the company's value to employees through new shares. And when a company is growing fast enough, this can be manageable, but it's a real cost that often gets ignored when people look at the headline revenue growth numbers. The growth looks great. The actual value acrewing to long-term shareholders is less great once you account for that dilution. Now, guys, this video you came in on a title. I don't know what that title is. It's probably changed 18 times since we released the video. What we're trying to do here is get you in here to teach you a lesson. So, don't take our titles literally. Now, we've heard the bull case. We've heard the bare case. Now, let's what we do what we always do and run the actual numbers because opinions are interesting, but the stock analyzer does not care about the hype. It only cares about what the business is actually worth based on the assumptions

we put into it. So, let's pull up Palunteer into our software right now. Palunteer $150 per share. A lot of people say that's the price of the business. I disagree. business is the market cap. That's the price of the share times the number of shares outstanding. 377 billion. Now, something I love about Palunteer. Look at enterprise value, guys. It's lower than the market cap. For those of you who are new and haven't seen this before, this is rare. This essentially means they have far more cash on hand than debt. This is a very good balance sheet. I freaking love it. Now, another thing that I love, net income of 1. 63 billion. Last year, free cash flow was higher of 2. 1 billion. Five-year net income was 280 million. 5year free cash flow was 900 million. A lot higher there. It's rare to have higher free cash flow than net income. Now, for those you are new, the reason that's important is it's easy to manipulate the net income number. And there's actually some evidence that Palunteer might have done that in the past, but free cash flow is a lot harder to manipulate. Now, guys, the current price to sales ratio is 84 on Palunteer. When it was sitting at $200 a share, that number was over 100. That's an incredible, incredible number. Not in a good way. profit margin 36% last year, 11% a year for the last five years, an 82% gross margin, guys. What this means is they get for every dollar they bring in revenue, 82 cents of it goes to the bottom line before overhead and taxes. That's a huge number. And look at this growth rate in revenue and um revenue for three and five years. Basically 32. 5 or 33% a year for the last three and five years. And great returns on capital. Now it was8% for the last 5 years. Now it's 18. This is a sign of a quality business. This is really good stuff, guys. I want to reme remind you of this as we talk. Now guys, let's go to our eight pillars. So what's the story our eight pillars are telling us? Well, net income, revenue, cash flow, and low debt are all check marks. It's these valuation metrics. Now, I'm not as worried about the return on capital because it's getting a lot better. It's the valuation metrics and it combined with shares outstanding. the things we talked about in our opening about this company. This is hard to get around, guys. A great company, a great story, if you pay the wrong price, becomes a bad investment. That is the fifth tenant of principal driven investing. And it's so important to understand. If you can understand that concept, it puts you light years ahead of everybody else. A great story at a bad price becomes a bad investment. Now, guys, I threw a lot of stuff at you. It can feel overwhelming. It's overwhelming for everyone at some point, but I highly encourage that if you want to get yourself to a place where you can calmly and understand what's going on in the company, it'll be so worthwhile for you and you'll do very well. And guys, I created a cheat sheet for you that's going to send you all of these key metrics, explain them to you absolutely free. Click the link in the description below or our pinned comment and we will send you our key metrics PDF. It'll describe all these key metrics, show you how to calculate them and describe it to you. That way, when you're watching our videos, you and I can be speaking the same language, and as time goes on and you analyze companies yourself, especially in our software, you'll be able to understand all of these. So, go ahead and check that out. It's absolutely free. Guys, the reason we started this YouTube channel was the whole purpose was to sit there and teach a different way of thinking. I would get so frustrated hearing all these big shots attach themselves to a story and never talk about the numbers. And I always thought to myself, if they're just attaching themselves to a story, it's going to end up very poorly. And in a couple minutes, guys, I'm going to show you what price I'd be willing to pay for the company based on my assumptions. But before we get there, let's go look and see what analysts think. Guys, look at this growth in earnings per share. A $134 this year, growing to 637 in four years. That's huge growth. But again, if you take the 637, apply even a 20 times multiple to it, that's only $130. It's not even $130 a share. It's currently at 150. So, are you paying for four or five years from now's profit today? Maybe. Look at this revenue growth. 65%, 42, 58, and 40. Growing from $7 billion to $33 billion. All right, guys. So, now we're ready. Let's go to our stock analyzer tool. And I love going to this thing first because it allows me to sit there and say, should I spend more time because I don't want to waste my time and I want you to waste your time researching companies that are nowhere close to your price target. So guys, I did a 10-year analysis. Now, the first thing I do is my revenue growth number. Guys, it's all over the board. I did 20, 30, and 40%. I just want you guys to know how hard it is to grow 30% a year for 10 years. But part of this also show you like how incredibly difficult this company is to justify in terms of price

profit margin and free cash flow. I did 35, 45 and 55%. Okay, for both of them because the gap between free cash flow and profit is equaling out. PE guys, what PE, what price of free cash flow would I sign of this business 10 years from now? Not today, not the average over the next 10 years, 10 years from now. Well guys, I always tell people, you start at 15 or 16 in your head. Then you decide, okay, is this a good company? If so, go with a higher one. Is it a bad company? Go with a lower one. What makes it good or bad? Margins. The story at that point makes it good or bad. That's where the story really matters to me. Are the margins good? Are the returns on capital showing it's a good quality business? Do they have a lot of growth potential? moat? These kind of things. So guys, I put 18, 22, and 26 in here, which is a lot different than what it's selling for today. But the point is, you can't attach yourself to what it's selling for today. You got to attach yourself to what does the market usually have and should I pay a premium for this? And then finally, guys, my 9% no margin of safety return. This is very important, guys, margin of safety is really important when you buy an individual company because the future's unknown and we don't and we're humans. We make mistakes. So, it's really important that you put a higher number than the market return. I'm putting this in here to get my intrinsic value. Guys, I have felt that panic in my gut as well. When stocks fall, fear takes over. You start thinking, do I sell before it gets worse? I've been there. I've made those emotional decisions, and I paid heavily for them. But patience and planning are what separates principal-driven investors from degenerate gamblers. Once you understand value and how to determine it, your perspective completely transforms. Price drops become golden opportunities, not disasters. That's what we teach at Everything Money, how to think long term and stay calm when other investors start losing their minds and they dig holes that kneecap their financial future. Get access to the tools and the knowledge that protect your portfolio and your future from those emotional decisions that will destroy wealth. Start your 7-day trial right now. All right, guys. I hit the analyze button. The stock's currently at 151. I have a low price of 40, high price of 339, a middle price of around 120. And guys, I do think that 30% a year revenue growth for the next 10 years is a very, very difficult thing to accomplish. That is really my issue with Palunteer. Everything has to go well. And I didn't even factor in here dilution from stock-based compensation. Now guys, I already gave you the first stock analyzer assumptions. Let me go in and put in a more what I think to be conservative approach to this. It's only going to be driven by revenue growth. So, I'm going to go with uh 15. No, 12 20 and then I'll do 30%. I'm going to do a bigger jump between the middle and high. I'm okay with profit margin and free cash flow margin, but I in the sense of if they keep their own control of the market, let's do this. And you might sit there and say, "Well, Paul, they're doing better than this. " I get that. But remember, your job as an investor is not to make all the highest assumptions possible. It's to make reasonable assumptions. And still 20% growth for 10 years is still an aggressive assumption. 40% bottom line margin still pretty awesome. 18 22 and 26. I actually still like that PE and price of free cash flow. And again, my 9% no margin of safety intrinsic value return. Hit the analyze button. I have a low price of 20, high price of 150, middle price of 50. Guys, again, I think these are still great assumptions for this company. I just think it's overpriced. And again, I want to repeat tomboo in the face. This does not even include stockbased compensation and dilution. That is a huge problem that they're going to have as time goes on. So, here's where I land on Palunteer. The business is real. The AI platform is generally interesting. I think Peter Teal is a brilliant man. and the fact that he's attached to it is wonderful. The government relationships are extremely durable. The commercial growth is something worth paying a lot of attention to because it's something they've only started to focus on in the last few years. There is no dismissing any of that. But a great business at the wrong price is still a bad investment. And Palanteer at the valuation it's been trading at requires you to price in a level of perfection that I am not comfortable personally paying for. This is not a business at a low multiple earnings that has been overlooked by the market. This is one of the most expensive stocks in the entire S& P 500 by almost any valuation metric you choose. It might actually be that way in history. Guys, another issue I have is Alex Karp. Obviously, he's done a great job, but he's a psychopath. He's so focused on what other people just focus on running the business. Don't care about the short sellers. Run the business. That's how you get rid of short sellers. run it

very well and keep on going. And by the way, Alex, you love the business so much. Why aren't you buying more shares? Because Alex knows the business is overpriced. Guys, another issue with people is a lot of people say, "What do they even do? " That's been a very common comment like, "What is that? What does it mean by they take data and make decisions? " My understanding of it is they go to a company and say, "Hey, give us all your data. Let's see if we can find some resources in there that we can make your business better. " It's really customizable and that's why their software is so expensive. So if Palunteer's price does come down meaningfully, if the valuation compresses to a level where growth expectations are more reasonable, this becomes a different conversation. There very well may come a day when Palanteer is genuinely interesting at the right price. But right now, paying this much for any business, no matter how good the story, is not something that I'm interested in doing. If you're a shareholder, get ready. Not because the stock is definitely going to fall, but because owning a stock at this valuation means you need everything to go right. And in investing, that's always the most dangerous position to be in. Now guys, if you want to see stocks that are passing our full process right now, businesses with real earnings, real margins of safety, and valuations that actually make sense, click right here for our breakdown of multibaggers that we are watching in 2026. Thank you for your time.