If 2026 Is the New 2022, Bitcoin Is About to Do This...

All right, guys. Let's address the elephant in the room. Let's talk about whether we are repeating the 2022 scenario where we had a top, a double top, and then a massive dump which took us 77% down. During which, by the way, during which we had several pumps of 20%, for example, here it was 22% pump or here we had a bounce of approximately 43%. But ultimately, the year ended with a massive loss. And overall from the top of the bull to the bottom of the bear we had a 77% loss. And if we look at this current scenario we have a quite similar situation with a top a double top then a dump during which we did have this pump right here of approximately 20% which you could say mirrors this one right here. Now, we're going through this pump right here of 37%. Which you could argue mirrors this one, which took us 46% from the low to the peak right here before losing another uh approximately 70%. And then finding the bottom. And let me highlight the most common objections against this analysis. Number one, this happened last time, so it cannot happen again because everyone expects it to happen again. So it will not happen. Number two, sailor is buying Bitcoin by issuing stretch his preferred stock and he's raising so much money that we will just moon from here because he's buying and buying. Number three institutions are here. This time is different and everything else we can put in that number three also. Of course, no one knows the future. I don't know the future. And yet in 2022, we made an absolute killing here on the channel shorting the market. Since 2023, we've been riskon. We've been riding this bull market. And if you've been watching this channel, you know that we've participated in everything that this bull market has to offer, including all of the memes, dog with hat, Pepe, all of the shitcoins, all of the all and so on and so forth. So we took the best fruits from the bull market and then as the bare market came and we saw that the market is weakening we said on October 8th that it's time to be risk off that the bare risk is increased and that you cannot be complacent you have to be super careful and be risk off and then when you look on the chart exactly when it was here I mean exactly this candle that topped out and then started to go down so it was around 125k so all in all we have quite a good track record here on the channel to speak about these topics. And of course, by doing these videos, I hope to provide as much value as possible to you so you can make as much money as possible. You can ride the bull and you can avoid the bear or short the bear. Anything is possible. So, if you love that, smash up the like, subscribe, welcome to the channel, and let's get started. So, let's look at the current Bitcoin price. As you can see, we're currently at 81K. We have this bare trend, meaning that we're overall bearish. And there's a secret clue that you can already now see on this chart that signals the likelihood of the bottom being in. Many people are saying that this right here was the bottom. But actually there is a clue here on the chart that you can see right now that uh shows you with great probability whether this was the bottom or not. See if you can find it and I will reveal it towards the end of the video. And the first thing you should know about the markets is of course that no one can for sure say what's going to happen. No one knows the future. And this is not about knowing the future or predicting the future. It's about positioning in the best possible way. where you have the deck of cards stacked against you, you are risk off. When the deck of cards is stacked in your favor, you are risk on. So for us, it's all about weighing the probabilities and seeing where we have the best riskreward to multiply our capital. And the first piece of the puzzle here is of course the trend. When things are going up, they're just more likely to continue going up. When you take each particular candle and you roll the dice of probabilities, the likelihood is that the trend will continue. But again it's the likelihood. The likelihood doesn't mean certainty. Sometimes the less likely scenario takes place and we actually go down. We create a new trend. So here for example it was bull trend. Then we broke down. We create a bare trend and now we are within the bare trend. And I'm the living proof that trends work. That trend following strategies in crypto are one of the best easiest and most reliable strategies to trade. I actually wrote a whole book about it. How I made a lot of money. house lost a lot of money and then finding trend following because at the end of the day you have a very simple repeatable process here which is easy to learn but not that easy to implement. Why? Because people are so emotional. Whenever you give them a small pump like this, people think we're going to go to alltime high or like this high. The same thing obviously is in a bull market when you have a dump like here people think we're going to go to zero again. We're going to go into the bare market. So, just following the trend, it is simple, but it does take a bit of practice to get right. And even now when it's clearly bearish right now on the weekly, many people are saying that we're going to go to alltime high. Even though we're still here at this

resistance, we're still way below this peak right here and overall have a higher lower high structure where we have a high, a lower high. And you see that just if everyone just follow trends, everyone would be so much richer. Instead, what do people do? They round trip. Even if they're lucky, they lose everything. They round trip to zero or they buy the top and then they huddle just down and down and down because there is most attention on an asset around the top. So many people get sucked in and they just huddle down. They don't realize that the bare trend has started and they end up minus 90%. So I can really vouch myself as a case study, as a personal case study is that trend following is probably the best way to trade crypto assets because they trend in very big trends. They move When you have an alcoin, it pumps a lot and it dumps a lot. You want to capture the majority of the move up and then avoid down or short it down. That's very important. So trends are the first piece of the puzzle and currently we are bearish on the weekly trend which is very important which is one point for the bears. But still there is a hidden clue here on the chart that I have not revealed yet which I will reveal towards the end of this video which basically shows you with highest likelihood whether this right here 60k was the bottom or not. I will reveal it very soon towards the end of the episode. The next piece of the puzzle is of course Sailor because Sailor has been able to raise billions of dollars every month in order to buy Bitcoin by selling stretch. And you can see here how much he raises each and every week. If you read this dark blue uh line, so dark blue means how much he's a he's been able to raise in any single week. So for example, here in the middle of April, he raised 1. 6 billion. Then in early April, he raised 1. 2 billion. Then here at the end of March, early April, he raised 498 million. So you can see here this dark blue lines, how much he raises each and every week. And um you need to do a full research on Stretch if you want to learn for real how it works with the dividend, how he attracts capital, what kind of consequences uh he gets by issuing more stretch because his liabilities increase. It's a full rabbit hole. for us just analyzing the Bitcoin price. We can see here how much capital the market is giving him and we can see it here by looking at the dark blue charts. You can see here that towards the middle of the month he's able historically he's been able to raise quite a lot of money but this time around in May you see he's struggling a bit. I mean currently he's raised 203 million but he now just has a few days two more days uh today Wednesday and tomorrow Thursday to raise and then ex dividend date happens and he cannot raise anymore again if you don't understand it don't worry you need to do more research about stretch yourself I'm just pointing things out here uh with the conclusion like the conclusion out of all of this is that you cannot trade based on this you can simply not trade based on the news or what someone else is doing because there's no way for us to know whether or someone else's buy pressure is big enough and can be sustained for long enough in order to push the price up. For example, you see here we had quite a good run with Bitcoin, but still it is in bare trend. Still, even though Sailor has been able to buy a lot, he has not pushed us above this high right here and we still have a structure here of just lower highs. It's a bare trend and just lower highs. Most altcoins are fully dead. Most altcoins have not come back in any meaningful way and u is also a bare trend here on the altcoin chart. So the scoreboard is the price. The scoreboard is whether we are in a bull trend or a bare trend. Whether we are creating higher highs or lower highs. This is very important. Nothing beats the scoreboard. Of course many people want things to happen. So they believe that okay now sailor is going to save us. But just look at the scoreboard. And the scoreboard is super simple. The scoreboard is still telling us that we have to be cautious. riskoff. It is still bare trend. Very important. So what kind of verdict do we give to sailor? Is it the point to the bulls or is it a point to the bears? I mean at the end of the day, of course, it's good that sailor is relentless. He's buying more and more Bitcoin. He's trying to be creative, create new instrument to raise more money to buy Bitcoin and the market has given him billions of dollars right here. So that's definitely a point for the bulls. However, the price is created at the margin. Having a bunch of money and blasting it into the market is not enough. You need continued sustained buy pressure because the price is created at the margin. It is the last trade that decides the whole price. You may have billions of buy pressure. If no one else comes and continues to buy, the prices will fall. That's why seeing that he now only has two days more to buy Bitcoin in May. in May based on the X dividend date. It is concerning he will likely have to increase the dividend that he pays stretch until next X dividend day in June to attract more capital. Let's see how he will handle it. But the thing

is we're not seeing acceleration in the uh in the raising of money. We see a deceleration. So although it has been a point for the bulls, this is not something that is useful to us to trade on. However, there is a very important very useful thing on the chart which I will speak about uh now which is the hidden clue. The hidden clue that we've been waiting for. Let me talk about it. All right. So, let's look at this old cycle from 2020 and 2019. You see that you have massive volume when the actual bottom occurs and then we go up only. Even here we had this bottom right here and you see that the volume was higher than it was before. This was quite a high volume event. The bottom is normally If we now proceed to the next bottom which was right here in 2022 at the end of 2022, you see the massive volume. The comeback here, the comeback in the price is also accompanied by massive massive volume. If we now look at what has happened in 2026, I mean you see yourself. You kind of see yourself. So in my opinion, we have not had any kind of big capitulation or any kind of meaningful event that would create big volume, big enough volume for us to call this the macro bottom. Now there is an argument to be made that we did see kind of a big candle right here uh on the volume when we went here. But I mean if you just zoom out you see that historically it's not really that meaningful historically. Now could this volume candle signal the bottom? uh potentially it's not impossible and that's why with all of the ideas and positioning we have clear invalidation should Bitcoin go bullish here on the money line we will be bullish as well now it's bearish now we don't see any big volume now we see this uh lower highs so for us the strategy stays the same should we what could happen is that we actually go above here and we go into bull trend and we continue up I mean that in itself could create a lot of uh volume in itself. The fact that we have a reversal and if we see a lot of volume then it will be a very big signal that yes the bull market is back for real like for example right here you did see this massive green candle when the trend was already bullish and we started to go up. This was a massive green volume candle not at the bottom but just confirming that there's a lot of bullishness. The uh market makers are buying a lot of supply. They're buying a lot on supply. The market makers are the wholesalers of the market. So when you have big candles, it means that they are loading up. Okay, market makers are loading up. So personally, as you probably have guessed it, I am riskoff when it comes to crypto. But the thing is, you need to realize that there are many trends happening all the time. For example, you look at NASDAQ, you look at S& P, they have been in a massive bull trend here and they're just pushing higher. So by being in a bare trend or trying to stay in an asset while it is in a bare trend and you just hope it re it reverses not only do you lose money you also lose the opportunity to participate in other markets like for example what's happening with the stock market with AI chips with AI stocks and so on so forth. So NASDAQ wants to open higher bull trend. S& P will Then you have all of the uh different stocks that you can see here on the money scanner, our website that all our Bullmania members have access to. Here you can see the gains, let's say, in stocks since the recent bull flip. So we can go here to the US. We can see what flipped within the last month on the weekly. And we can take uh any time here. And you see for example that since one year ago Western Digital is up a thousand percent. When it fle bullish it was the time to enter. It's now up a thousand%. This Real Mada is up 782% 11 months ago. You have all of the different stocks. Sandisk famous SanDisk since four months ago up 400%. And it's only one of the trends. It had many bull trends uh since uh yeah in the last year. I mean you see here massive pump. than uh another big fat bull trend right here. So, uh trends are all about being in the right asset at the right time. And then when it's bare, it doesn't mean the end of the world. It doesn't mean that you just sit around and do nothing. There is an endless amount of assets that are pumping each and every day. And if you see here in the money scanner, we have the uh stocks, the cryptos, commodities, ETFs, forex. We monitor all of the markets and in real time we can tell you when they're flipping, when they're flipping on which time frame and you can filter that you only see bullish or bearish. And this is the best way to see what's happening. So to get access to the money line scanner, go to bullmia. com. You find the link below. Watch the free

training and book a strategy call with us. And if you do, we're going to go through your trading. how you've been performing, how you can improve. Our experts for free is going are going to tell you how we can help. And then you're going to get access to this trend indicator that you can see right here. Bear bull and of course the uh money scanner which is this website where you can see everything in real time all the assets in the world in real time and you can filter. You can see what recently flipped for example here you can see on the 4hour time frame uh and what flipped today and you can or now take action based on the flips in real time. So guys hope you enjoyed hope you learned something. Smash up the like, subscribe, let me know in the comment section what you think. Do you think that we will repeat 2022 or not? Personally, I don't know. No one knows. To be clear, no one knows. But based on the signals, I think the cards are still not stacked in our favor to be heavy crypto yet. In the stock market, they've been stacked in our favor for a long time. In the crypto, not yet. That will change at some point. I will keep you guys updated. Smash up the like, subscribe, and see you all very, very soon.