Live Day Trading: Stocks, Options Strategies and Market Analysis $SPY

Hello traders and welcome to today's live event. We have not had much of an exciting market to talk about, but we do have Nvidia earnings after the close today. So Barry and I are going to be highlighting that. Barry, how are you doing? I'm great, Pete. Nice to uh be back live again with you here. Let's take a quick look at what the market is doing. We'll go back into the D1 chart. We'll start there. We'll kind of get our bearings. And uh you can see a whole lot of nothing really since uh October, we've been in this horizontal trading range. We had one little poke below it in November, but apart from that, that's a long time to be in this range. And you can see mixed red and green candles. The market is not going anywhere. We're going to talk about how you should be trading these market conditions. And this is a tough environment. Kind of once you dial into it, you understand where your opportunities are. It's about being patient. The lessons that you learn right now are going to serve you well the rest of your career. People that are out there spinning their wheels trying to do the same old are losing money. So don't be like them. We're going to show you how we're currently making money in the market. And you can see that we did spend a little bit of time down on the 100 day moving average. That has not been typical. We have typically gone down to it and we have bounced right off of it. So, this could be a sign that there's a little bit more selling pressure than there's been, but once we release off of that low, you can see how yesterday we got to the 50-day moving average. Today, we're above it. So, very likely that we're going to be spending some time near the upper end of the range and spend five or — Yeah, the video is not working on the one option YouTube, but it hasn't gone on yet. — Oh, okay. It's working on the real day trading one here, but uh not on the one option. — Okay. All right. Um, let me just see here.

— Cool. — Yeah, it just uh just says waiting for one option on the uh on the site. So, all right. Well, in any event, uh we'll keep going and hopefully they'll be able to connect. So, now that we've broken above the midpoint, which is AVQ and the 50-day moving average, the market looks poised to go to the upper end of the range. If it spends five or six days there, then you've got to start looking at a reversal back down to the low end of the range. We're just staying in this range right now. So, uh, Harry, how have you been finding success in this chop? uh you know it's whenever you have I mean today is the first day where the market to me has definitively which is a little odd because you know before Nvidia earnings hit where the market has kind of definitively chosen a direction because if you I mean since last week um all we've been doing and in fact you know since before two weeks ago almost is um okay we got a new link there for the YouTube site. There we go. Okay. Um, uh, we're looking to bring you live. I got it. Sorry. Uh, we've been hanging out between the 50 and the 100 SMAs on SPY, right? So, we've been bouncing off the 100. We haven't been able to break below that. In fact, we haven't really closed below the 100 SMA on SPY since liberation day. And uh the 50 SMA has kind of been acting as this hard ceiling there um after spending months and months living above it. And then here we are today where we just kind of gap up and jump right over 68750 and are not and it's the market's not really showing any signs that it is uh looking to come back down and retest that. So there there's a certain I guess bullish confidence in the market right now that I haven't seen in a while. Um which is interesting — and that can change tonight when Nvidia comes out. — Exactly. And we could be seeing a rally ahead of Nvidia's number thinking, hey meggaap tech stocks before they announce earnings shorts are very passive. They don't want to stick their head in that news. And so we saw that before Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, before all those stocks announced, the market tried to make a new high. And that was somewhere probably right about in here. And then as soon as those earnings came out, whoosh, the market just rolled right over. So it's pretty typical to see the market rally ahead of these meggaap tech earnings. So, uh, the takeaway for me in all of this price action has been, and I've mentioned this in my videos, when you see one long red candle like this, it's not nearly as powerful as if you saw three or four consecutive red candles because that would be a sign of persistent selling pressure, aggressive selling pressure. When you have one long red candle that's usually mechanical, it's programmed generated. There are stops that are triggered around along the way and it just kind of feeds on itself. So when I saw this drop, I was expecting this support level to hold to be quite honest. I thought we would lift off of it a week ago, but it took us a little bit longer. Eventually we did lift off of it. So um those are patterns that you want to watch for. When we spend four or five days up near the upper end of the range, that's when you can expect that we're going to probably have a bearish trend day in there somewhere. Market sells off, we bounce. So, that's the pattern. Uh I have been consistent in my approach. I've been putting all sorts of uh bullish put spreads on my YouTube channel. Uh I've been selling them in the chat room. I've been selling puts since June of last year. That strategy has worked really well. And I'll go through a couple of trades that I recently showed everyone. Google there. We were selling the 300 295 bullish put spread all the way down below the 100 day moving average. And that was the one that I put out Sunday. We did that for a $1 credit going out to March 13th. and trade is in beautiful shape. Uh then Tuesday I had another trade that I highlighted, but I can't for the life of me recall what it was. Uh it was a good one though, another put sale. So I'll let you maybe talk about some of your trades, Harry. And — strategy I mean with what for traders what you should be looking for is when you have a market that is you

know a lot of times when you get a bearish downtrend or you get a bare market for example you'll get these high IVs right so when you have high IV it's very good for put selling it but obviously if you're in a bearish downtrend or in a bare market it's dangerous because if you're selling puts and you're getting a nice premium for them. You're getting it for a reason. the reason that you might get burned and get assigned that stock, but get assigned that stock at a much lower price point than the premium you got. When you ever you have an opportunity though to do what Pete's talking about, which is you're getting this really good premium, you're getting high IVs all throughout options, right? It just, you know, VIX and you but just look at the IVs on the tech stocks and so on. Um then and you have a market that's essentially flat, right? And that's really where the market has been the last few months. It's been flat. It's been fairly flat almost since October. So you have a market that's not in a bearish downtrend and you're able to sell puts and get that IV. That is a rare and really good opportunity to take advantage of. So, these are the type of things that traders you need to look for because if you can get that premium and not have to sacrifice uh the fact that you're in a bearish downtrend or a bare market to get it, you should jump all over those opportunities. — Exactly. And so, I did uh recall the trade that I did. It was on be and this was a video that I did Tuesday, Monday before the open. So, if you're new to my YouTube channel, make sure to subscribe and turn on your notifications. I'm going to be doing more of these short videos during the week and I'm going to try and do them before the open. If you don't have your notifications on, you're going to miss these trades and you should have time to look at what the trade is. So, on be I was looking to sell all the way down here to the 130 strike and below it. Actually, you can see that's for the 50-day moving averages. I have horizontal was resistance. Now, support coming through around 140. I also have a small horizontal support level right here around 135. I have multiple levels of support. Most importantly, the stock looked good. It looked strong. It looked like it wanted to go higher. I had to sell puts because I couldn't bet that the stock was going to move higher because the market doesn't have a tailwind for us right now. It could have just sat right like it's been for days and weeks and buying calls is a losing proposition because you have time premium working against you. I want time premium working for me. So the trade was to sell the 127 125 bullish put spread. I think I got 50 cents for that. It's going to generate about a 33% return in two and a half weeks. And look at how far out of the money we are now. 180 all the way down to 127. That stock would have to fall hard. Um Matt asked on the bullish put spreads, is it normal to sometimes have to sit and wait or hope that it uh that it gets filled? Yeah, I mean look, when you don't want to compromise on the credit that you're going to receive on that, right? you want to get your 20 cents to the dollar. Um so, you know, if you're doing the 190 18750 uh RTX bullish put spread, um you're not going to want to settle for less than 50 cents um in credit there. Uh you might get more, you might get less, but yeah, you just you let it sit there. But a lot of these brokers, a lot of times if you just um delete the trade and then put it back in again, it'll go back to the top of their queue and you might get filled faster that way. So sometimes if you find that it's sitting out there for a while, um do that, but you know, don't go down the path of trying to chase it to get filled at a lower credit because these bullish put spreads really are statistical um exercise, right? So, um, the win rate you need on a bullish put spread when you're getting 20 cents to the dollar is roughly 80 85%. Um, and you do get that if you structure them correctly, if you get if you do it with two levels of support above your short put and so on. But if you start lowering your uh threshold for the credit you'll receive, then all you're doing is actually increasing the percentage of times you have to be profitable or successful for those trades to work out. And right now they're priced perfectly at 20 cents to the dollar of the spread. So let it sit there or take it off and then put it back in again. And so there's, you know, when you find the stock that sets up well and you find

the support level that sets up well, then you're kind of experimenting with, well, how close can I go in terms of time? Because you I would rather be a little bit closer to the current stock price, but have a week less of time exposure than to go one strike further out and have to endure that trade for a week longer. And the reason for that is because sooner or later we're going to break out of this compression. Okay? I would rather have accelerated time to pre accelerated time premium decay working in my favor. So I rarely go out four weeks, but I do and I try and go out three weeks if I can. So that also means that I'm looking at weekly options. If you have a really wide bid ask spread on the spread itself, you may not want to do that because the options are too illquid. If the stock reverses and sells off, you're going to have a very difficult time getting out of the position. Now, you can always hedge yourself by shorting underlying stock. So, that also means that you probably shouldn't be doing this. I had someone ask about Lily. That's a thousand dollar stock. mile wide bid ask spreads. You have no idea where you could possibly get that spread done or where you could get out. I wouldn't use a stock like that, no matter how good the chart looks. So once you do dial in and you find a stock that you really like, even if the bid ask spread on the spread itself is, let's say 40 or 50 cents wide, try and middle it. Go out there with one contract. Find out where they're at. You know what credit you need. Maybe you can do a little bit better, but kind of test the waters. If you get build on one contract, you're probably going to be able to get 10 or 20 contracts off at that price. — Well, I really like this breakout on Alcoa. I like AA here. They had a news piece yesterday about um their opening up data centers. Obviously, that is um going to be a big business for them. So, um but what I really like is the technical break here on Alcoa. If you look at the daily chart, they've broken above that downward sloping trend line that starts from uh January 14th. Um it's a nice break of compression. They're there's it's kind of blue sky above it. They're coming close in here to their all well they're not at their um all-time highs which was way back in 20 in their all you know yearly highs of the last two to three years here. And there's not much resistance up ahead on the stock high IV on the um on the options. So it's also not a bad stock to buy at $65. — Yep. So uh you do have good option IVs on that one. So, I'm kind of looking out uh let me see what we've got. Aa look and see what we've got in terms of option premiums on that one. I know I've sold premiums on it before, so it's been a pretty decent one. March 13th, if we go down to, you know, and again, where you sell your uh puts is up to you. I'm going to be looking for, hey, would I buy the stock at AVA E? Sure. That's at $60. Well, what can I get for the $60 puts? They're 153 by 191. So, you probably could get a $160 for those somewhere in that neighborhood. Sell it. See if you can get filled. If you do, you're going to be long, not at $60. long somewhere around 5880. Guess what? That's right around that 50-day moving average. It's a very nice, easy trade, and you're not sweating it, okay? because a stock looks strong, but you do have to be prepared to take assignment on it. I'll show you a trade that I did this morning. I think this is going to be my featured trade. I en really like this setup and I'm going to explain the trade to you. If you look at this, you can see how the stock has defined support right here at the $40 strike price. Stock is all the way up to $45. So this morning I did one better. I went all the way down to the 200 day moving average which you can see poking in right there. I sold the $36 puts and I did that for a $110. So what's the premise behind the trade? First of all, I think the stock is going to hold that support if not move higher. I think it's got a good chance to move higher in here. Secondly, it would have to lose 20% of its value. 20% of its

value in three weeks. Odds of that happening are not real high. The 200 day moving average should lend support. So, I have support at AVA E. I have support h resistance right now at the 50-day, but I have AVWAP E. I've got horizontal support at 40. I've got the 200 day moving average. Support, support. Would I buy the stock at $35? If the answer is yes, this is a good trade and it's going to yield about 6% in three weeks. 6% return in three weeks. I put the trade on, I let time decay work its magic, and I'm not sweating at all. These are the types of income generating trades you need to be doing when the market is like this. Let's see here. Um, I did have a lengthy discussion with JPM this morning on Nvidia. Um, they actually feel that it's not going to move that much. Um, which is, you know, if you were to do a if you were going to look to do a time spread, that would be where you would do it. Um, but, uh, they feel that it's going to stay within a range. They don't see they project that it's going to you know have a beat on the number but that you're not going to get much more upside on it and a limited downside. So they're project to stay within the 18520 range even after earnings. Um kind of odd for them to be that conservative on a stock like Nvidia but there you have it. they are um even though they continue to claim that they feel that the uh that it's going to be a really good number. So uh you know they think they're going to have a good number and uh and not much movement on the stock. So take that for what it's worth, but if I have information, I'll give you the information. Um someone here is asking um a couple of people, two people are asking about uh Bloom Energy Be uh all-time high shaky market. I look, I love the chart. It's great. Um, it's breaking compression. Uh, let me see here on the calls. I bet you the IV is through the roof on this damn thing. Um, yeah, it is. It's way over 100%. — Wow. This thing is I mean, here's one where you now have new support coming in here at around 168. So, it's down there a lot. um not much you can do unless you're going to do a debit spread. So, this is where you would do a debit spread if you're bullish on the stock. This is where you would buy the let's say where is it now? 180. You'd buy the 180 calls and you'd sell the 180 or you'd buy the 182. You could buy the 18250 calls, sell the 185 calls, and you can do that entire trade for 78 cents. Um, given the amount of movement we have here, uh, today up $14 and the ATR in the stock, that's actually not a bad trade. um buying the 18250 calls expiring this Friday. Selling the 185 Doing that entire trade probably get it for 90 cents to put it in for. In fact, I'll do that right now. I'm going to do 10 of those at 90 cents. See if I can get it to go in. Not giving it to me at 90. Let's see if I can get it for a dollar3. No, you're trying [clears throat] to. You probably get it for around a dollar. You'd have to put it in for a dollar to get it. Um, that's not a bad trade. I like Bloom Energy. — I'm current I am currently long coin in the chat room today. That's working out well. I took it and I added to the position and I am up about uh $5 on that trade right now with an ad. take a quick look at that and show you what I liked. Five minute chart. I like this compression. I like the relative strength. I liked the heavy volume. And I like the fact that we had a couple of nice breakout bars in here. This is where I got long. added. So, this has been in really nice shape. If I look at that D1 chart, you can see how it's through this horizontal resistance level. It's made a series of lows and bounced off of this support level. If you zoom out, this stock has been absolutely trashed recently. So, there's probably some short covering going on. And I think it's got a pretty decent path to maybe even get up to this

horizontal line here, which be about the 50-day moving average. I won't be in the trade that long. I'll just be looking to exit the trade sometime today. So, it's a nice winner, though. I just went long on uh AA. I did the $61 calls expiring uh 36. I did it for $5. 50 each. Three contracts. This is on the small account challenge here. Um which is doing well. It's still well in profit. Um and yes, so $5. 50, three contracts. the March 6th AA61 calls. That is uh my current position. I took off the call debit spread because if I can't get it on um on the other one because if I can't get it for less than a dollar, then I'm not going to take it. Uh but I did like AA and I did not want to um pay more than that. So yeah. Hey, that's uh [clears throat] bring up a quick chart pattern. So if you're day trading, you're looking for an entry point or even swing trading, uh you see AA, these are this is a tends to be a commodity type stock. You know, it's metals uh related. Uh it's going to be choppy. So you're going to have nice moves up, pullbacks. So you don't want to chase new highs, but you can rightclick create alert. And in this case, I'm going to select HA reversal. And I'm going to do that on an M5 basis. And I'm looking for a bullish reversal. Well, it's currently on a bullish reversal. So, it has to go through a bearish reversal. And then I'm going to find out about it on the next bullish reversal. So, I'm going to add that. Save it. And when I do that, there is one right there. So, there is bullish, bullish. There's a bearish reversal, flat top, red. There's a bullish reversal, green, flat bottom. So this is where you would get your alert. You would have also got an alert right in here. When you get the alert, you evaluate the stock. Was the dip brief and shallow? Yes, it was. And it found support at VWAP. Yes, it was. This is a good entry point for me. So alerts are great way for you to enter a hot stock that you see but you don't want to chase. I'd love to buy it now, but I know I shouldn't. I'm gonna set the alert instead. I'm gonna when I get the alert, I'm going to evaluate the depth and magnitude of the um someone asked about LMT here. Wow, pretty big selloff there. Uh I mean LMT has been uh on a tear obviously for the last two, three months. Um a little bit of profit taking today. I don't see any relevant news that should drop the stock. You said you're holding it for the next couple of weeks. Um, obviously not ideal from where you just got it, but it does seem to be uh stabilizing. It bounced up. I' you know, I' I'd wait to see where we're going to close today. You really wanted to close uh above 652 um which was the low of yesterday. So, what you're looking for is a close above 652 today to continue to feel pretty bullish about that stock. And with this stock, so this happens. Uh there's a HA. I just got the HA reversal that I was showing to you earlier because that candle had not completed as I was showing it to you. Now that the candle's completed, we got our HA reversal alert on AA. That's how it would work. So, um, anyway, um, gosh, I was gonna, oh, regarding LM, LMT, this is where you get your confidence from, okay, this is what you focus on. A lot of times what traders will do is they will focus on the red candle. OH MY GOD, WHAT HAPPENED? I love this stock. What h Oh my god, I got to get out. Focus on this. Are all of these buyers going to instantly decide, "Nope, I hate it. LMT sucks. I'm going to sell it all. " No. These are long-term institutional buyers. And they will try to shake you out. And what you want to see when you get a red candle like this is you want to see it gobbled up ideally in a day. Sometimes it takes two or three days, but you want it reversed instantly. And when you see that, you have confirmation. This bid check survived. There are buyers. M5 chart. What's the

Oh my god, what happened? What's the news? What's wrong with LMT? Puke it out, sell it out, and then they come in and they buy it. So, focus on the left side of the chart, not the right side of the chart. You get a long red candle, don't sweat it. That red candle is going to actually serve as confirmation when it's erased and you might even want to add to the position once it's been recovered very quickly. Basic question here and it's really a longer thing but you know what can you do to prevent FOMO? I mean that's just like a macro larger question here right? Um, you know, it's easy to say emotionally remove yourself. Anyone can anyone could say that. Um, and obviously that's the end goal. That's what you have to do. [snorts] And there are lots of different things that you could point to. You know, any given day there's always going to be something that you're going to have fun about. You could look today and be like, "Oh my god, look at App. I should have gone long on App this morning when it was up five. " I mean, I pointed out app in the chat room this morning when it was up $10 and said this is a good long and now it's up another $20 from when I pointed it out. Um, and if you didn't go in that, you might have some FOMO. What do you do to prevent that chasing where well, I don't want to go in now. Now it's up 30. Um, look, you know, it's kind of like in negotiation, anything you have to have in your mind based not on your emotion, not on what you think, but looking at the chart, this is the price I'd like to get in on. This is where I'm comfortable going long on this stock. Kind of like someone said before, if I have a, you know, a price out there and it's just sitting out there and I'm waiting on it, you know, how long do I wait? you know, you if you have done your analysis and you've looked at the charts and you come up with this is where I want to go long or short, stick with that area. And if if it comes down and it comes in and everything is still right, then you go in and grab it. But don't cop don't go and say, you know, I I'm good at going long on app under 420, but now it's 422. Do I want to? And you start chasing it. Wait till it pulls back. If it doesn't, it doesn't. If you miss it, it you miss it. There's The great thing about the market is tomorrow there's another one. In another hour, there's another one. There's always more. It's not going anywhere. You're going to get other opportunities. Just because you've missed that opportunity doesn't mean that there are not going to be more opportunities coming. What it really is about is making sure you take advantage of the opportunities that do appear. And when they appear because yes, if you do wait too long, if you look at something, you go, "That looks good. This is where I want to go in. " and you wait and then it just explodes and you miss it. Yeah, you're going to be kicking yourself. But don't compromise the this is where I want it to go in. This is where it looks good. It's now blown way past that and then you start chasing it. There was a reason why you liked it at the price you liked it. If you're not going to get it at that price, then wait for it to come back in or go on and move to another one. Set alerts and just move on. But if you're, you know, you're not going to lose anything, as Chilled Koi Saus, and there's no harm in waiting. It's not hurting your P& L by waiting. Uh, you know, you don't lose anything for a trade you don't take. Um, but you can, you know, because there are so many stocks and so many setups and so many opportunities, it's not like, you know, I'd understand if the market presented one or two opportunities a day and you miss those and you're like, damn it. Or one opportunity a week or a month. You have opportunities every minute that you can look and find them. If your scanners are good, if your analysis is good, you can always find opportunities to go back in. So, you know, don't get too attached and think I need to start chasing a stock right now or I missed coin or I missed this. Okay, well, there are plenty other chances. Ask yourself why you didn't go in earlier and a lot of times because you didn't see it in time. That's fine. All right, then you need to improve your scanners or whatever. But, uh, FOMO really is a reflection of your inability to wait, be patient, and settle and be confident in the price that you're willing to take a trade at. Yeah. And I just gave you a great way to reduce FOMO. I just explained to you how to reduce FOMO. Hey, I see a super hot stock. The thing is taking off. Oh my god, this thing is going to be great. And instead of taking that position, instead of acting on your FOMO, what do you do? You set an alert. A lot of times you're going to get that alert and you're going to go, "Oh my god, am I glad I didn't take that trade. Look at that stock fall

apart. " Other times, you're going to go, "Hey, that dip was brief and shallow. This is going to be a really good entry point for me. " So set alerts. If you don't have Option Stalker Pro, pick a price point and set an alert below it. So we've got horizontal line alerts that we use. If you're looking to get long a stock like this, click, set an alert here. It's very easy. Like right here. Okay. Well, you know what? If the stock pulls back a little bit, I'm going to be able to see what that move looks like. And once these are triggered on the way down, then I'll start setting them above the price of the stock so that when the stock pulls back and then bounces, now I'm getting upside alerts on it. Again, setting alerts is the best way to avoid fall — and MSN 1540 MSN uh Ford MSN there. There's no uh advantage to using futures um S& P futures as opposed to SPY as your central point in uh identifying relative strength, relative weakness. The micro differences, the arbitrage between the two of them is so negligible. Just use SPY. SPY is your better gauge uh to use. They're going to move hand inand. You're not going to get a situation where SPY is moving one way and futures are moving another way. They're they're by default, by definition, going to move hand in hand. So, um, I would, uh, just use SPY and do yourself a favor. Unless you're an extremely experienced trader, don't trade futures, right? You, your edge is in the relative strength and relative weakness to the market. Um, that edge doesn't exist if you're trading the market directly. You have to have a lot of experience. Like Pete will trade futures, I'll trade futures. have to have a lot of experience to correctly trade futures uh and make money because you can easily get wiped out in futures. You don't have a buffer in rel that you would have with a stock. Had a question on TSM. TSM is a stock that I highlighted two weeks ago in my Sunday video. I've been highlighting it quite a bit. We did uh really nice uh diagonal spread back in here that worked out beautifully back in here. Uh when I highlighted it in the video, uh I sold the 340 puts for $6. They expire a week from Friday. They're currently trading one and a half dollars. What do I think of the stock? I love it. I just don't love the freaking market. I hate the market. So, I'm not going to get aggressively long. Could I be more aggressive with the GLWs and TSMs of the world? I could if I wanted to, but right now I don't have that market tailwind. So, I'm choosing to sell premium. And when I get these market drops like this down to the low end of the range and I watch the stocks come in, I'm glad I don't own calls because those stocks pull back and time premium decay is an issue. So, um you're going to have to approach these trades in whatever manner suits you. Right now, we don't have that tailwind. So I would not be aggressively long. — SKM still in play. Look, I'm a big fan of SKM, but this is to me it's a longer term hold. SKM is heavily invested in anthropogic. Uh and uh once that IPOs that IPOs SKM will go accordingly, right? So uh will that be six months from now, a year from now? Don't know. But if you look at the chart and you just look at the price action on SKM, you could see uh how investors are preparing themselves for that eventuality. This thing has been uh popping. It's now up uh 50% since January 15th. Um and the chart still looks good. So, I like this. I like it just as a straight long um and even on a short-term trading basis. And I certainly like it as a longer term hold. And really quickly, Ralph Pro Trapor, um I don't know why you would currently be short Carvana. It does look like it is finding some uh support here. It is certainly in a compression. Um and 315 looks like a pretty hard floor on it. Um you know, you're in danger of a short squeeze on that stock. Um, there's a lot of reasons not to short Carvana here unless it breaks below 315, but you know, as we just talked about, set an alert at 315. If it breaks below that, great. Short all day long because then it broke support. It's good. But until then, I'd leave it alone. Yeah, this is one of the stocks I have traded and I do not trade. It does some wacky funky things during the course of the day. And you can tell, you don't even have to go into a fiveminute chart. Look at the daily chart. Do you see these long tails here?

Do you see these wicks up here? That tells you this stock moves all over the damn place through the course of the day. And you don't get nice consistent price movement in either direction. That means it's very difficult to trade. There are many better stocks for you to trade than this one. Now, let's go look at the five minute chart. And I can tell you what that's going to look like just based on those wicks and tails. There you go. Look at this crap. I'm sorry. You should not be looking at a stock like this. Who can make sense of that? It's all over the board. This is not a good opportunity. Okay? You need nice consistent directional price movement with stack candles of a single color. Then you can predict which way the stock is going. Why? because institutions are in there buying it like mad or shorting it. When you get this kind of crap, it's just moving back and forth whimsically. There's some buying, there's some selling. It moves all over the place. And you can't predict future price movement. Don't drive yourself crazy. Only trade the best stocks. I like uh Dave just went and Dave always has some great trades. Um, uh, he just went long. Philip Morris here. Great chart on Philip Morris. Really nice long. And that's one where you probably not going to get this huge, uh, let me take a look just to confirm it. But yeah, you're not going to get a huge IV on that. You're going to get pretty good option pricing on Philip Morris. I mean, that's one where you can just grab uh, next week's calls. So, you can go in and get the uh the 74 delta, the 185 calls for like $6. 50. That's a pretty good deal right there. Um, so yeah, I like the Philip Morris trade. Um, I definitely I might even consider doing that one. So, that's a good one that you get. Um, by the way, a couple you asked about the podcast. Thank you. The podcast is doing great. There should be another one, episode four, coming out on Friday. We'll uh at some point Pete will come on as a guest. Um we'll go over some other topics. I'm taking in a lot of your suggestions on topics, but I'm glad everyone seems to be enjoying it. Um everyone told me to expect this huge drop off from episode one into episode two and three and then it eventually stabilizes with whatever audience and I there really hasn't been any drop off. Um in fact, the viewers the downloads are just going up. So, um, thank you all for the support on the podcast and I look forward to the next one and getting some more of your feedback and hopefully it's, uh, it's helping people. Joanna is long Sienna and riding it. When do I take profits on it? Well, this stock has a really nice head of steam. It's getting well above the EMA8. The thing about trading is that this is not an all ornone proposition. It doesn't have to be. Even if you don't have a hundred shares, if you've got 10 shares, just sell a couple of them. You don't have to get out all at once and you can scale out and take gains. But on a longer term basis, the stock to me looks like it's going to continue to move higher. What you would probably see in this type of stock is you would see a red candle in here that quickly finds support. the stock starts to move sideways and then it gradually forms a base and then it gets right back on track. And when it does that and the dip is brief and shallow and it recovers quickly from that dip, that's actually an opportunity for you to add to the position because it will have caught the EMA 8 will have caught up to it. So, uh, where you take profits on it is up to you, but I suspect that this would be a stock that you would want to add to versus taking profits on a nice move here. That position is now in a decent profit at the moment. I got those calls when I told you all to buy those calls. They were at 550. They're now at 565. So, um, those calls are moving up nicely. um particularly when you get deep in the money calls, you're going to get better leverage. I would really encourage I mean that's one of the main pieces of advice if you are trading options and there's a whole separate discussion on trading options and not but I you know a lot of you do trade options you know whether you have a low count balance or not. Um but uh you really don't want to mess with the out- of the money options um unless you're doing some sort of complicated spread. um you know you the more you're paying in pure premium the more you're just putting an anchor around yourself to not make any money. Um options are there to give you

leverage and the deeper in the money you go the more leverage you get. Can you know you'll afford less contracts but you're going to get more onetoone and your options going to retain value even if you get a drop in the stock if you're deep in the money your option is not going to go to zero. Whereas in the out of the money options, it will go to zero. So, um you know, if I could give, if every retail trader out there right now just stopped buying out of the money options, period, done. No matter what, they never buy them. They're banned from them. Every broker said, "Nope, you're not allowed to buy out of the money options anymore. " Whatever. uh your I guarantee you the average P& L would go up astronomically. Um on that you might not be making but you pro the losses would be mitigated by a huge amount. It is one of the number one reasons that retail traders lose money and we know most retail traders lose money. So if you have most retail traders move money and the number one reason they lose money out of the money options stay away from them. If you could take one thing away, stay just stay away from out of the money options. You just saved yourself a bunch of money right there alone. Yeah, it it's always the uh temptation. Oh my gosh, if these go up from a dollar to a$150, I'm going to make 50%. — Yeah. No. So that's people are always looking at the upside rewards and they're not paying attention to the risk. And the risk is what if this stock just sits here for the next hour? Well, those options are going to lose value, especially if you're trading zero DTE. Terrible. And you concerned nobody. You just said, "We can't afford in the money options. " Yeah, you can. You just can't afford as many contracts. So, let's just say you you're you're trading a $100 stock and you're looking, oh, I'm going to buy the $103 calls for 50 cents. I'm going to buy 10 of those, right? So, you just spent $500 on 103 calls. But the $93 calls or the $94 calls are $5. You can get one contract of those or you can get 10 contracts of the 103 calls. Well, get the one contract. just buy the one contract. Then you're going to do better than losing your $500 when that $100 stock closes at 10150 where you would have made $150 on your in the money call and you lose the entire 500 on the 10. Well, what if it goes up to 105? Then all of a sudden, I mean, 300%. Yeah. Okay. And that is the one out of 50 times that will happen. The other 49 times you're going to lose $500. So do the math on it. You can afford in the money calls. You just can't afford less contracts. Exactly. And making a 10% return consistently is better than making a 100% return 1% of the time because your account will be blown out. So if you have a small account, that's not an excuse for you to buy out of the money options at all. If anything, you need to error on the side of caution and really focus on building that account so that you've got something decent to work with in the future. What do you think, Pete, of VIA? Uh Bratworth uh put it in there as a good intraday long. I love it. I think it's a really good stock. a great chart. It's broken out today. Um doesn't show I mean, normally I'd say wait for you to pull back to VWAP, but you already got that earlier today. Um at around an hour into trading, you already got that pull to VWOP and then it just bounced and continued to go. Uh might be a little extended right now, so I might hold off and wait a little bit. But that is definitely one that looks very sharp. I like uh VIA. Very nice daily chart. I like the stock and I like the username. — Yeah, Bratworth. Did — you say bratw worst? Now I'm getting hungry. [snorts] — I'm not hungry for bratwurst, I'll tell you that. But you know, hey, teach their own. — I spent a lot of time in Wisconsin, so I eat plenty of bratwurst. Yeah, that's a beautiful trade. Really nice breakout. This stock has definitely a nice head of steam to it. Let's do something here. Let's say, hey, you know what? This stock has run up an awful lot. Where would I like to buy it? I wish I could have bought it back here at that breakout right there. And if I could have bought it at $28, if they ever give me another chance to buy it at $28, I'd be all over it. Let's see if it's got some decent options. It may not have any

options. I don't know. It does have options, but you got to go out to the monthly expiration, which right now you're talking a little but about three weeks or so. There's no option liquidity. It doesn't look like great liquidity. Let's see. 28 puts 50 by 70. You're not getting a lot of premium for them. So, yeah, it was a nice thought, nice effort. I'd probably like to get somewhere in the uh $1 range for something like that. Um, back to a concern to everybody just because you're the way you're thinking is the way a lot of retail traders think. Um, one, a spread isn't many positions. It's one position. If you do a call debit spread where you're buying the $100 call and selling the 102 call or whatever, that spread is one single position. In fact, if you only have three day trades every five days, it doesn't count as two day trades. It counts as one trade when you open the spread and close the spread. You can actually do a day trade on a spread and it counts as one trade for a reason. Uh because it is only one position. So, it's not more positions to manage. And you said the little guy needs more risk to build capital. That's exactly why I'm doing the small account challenge. I started with $2,500 and the account is up 50 60% in two months. And I haven't used one out of the money option uh doing that. I've used spreads. I've used in the money calls in the money puts and put spreads and debit spread. I have not once used an out- ofthe- money uh option to do it even though I started purposely with $2,500 because $2,500 is probably the average balance of most people who are playing around in the market. And you would think, well, with only $2,500 you that would be the perfect balance to do out of the money options. And no, because if I did out of the money options, that account would have been wiped out a month ago. And it's not. It's in profit. So, uh, if you want to build those small accounts, buy the in the money options. Buy the debit spreads. Don't try to risk and gamble with that little amount of capital. It's great advice. I've been doing this for 35 years. I can't tell you how many people I've seen blow their accounts out. And even in the chat room, it's a revolving door. Harry's seen the same thing. Okay, small accounts mean I got to double my account soon. This needs to be something worthy and it has to happen right away. And so you put yourself in an impossible position to try and generate huge returns on a small account. Risk and reward go hand in hand. Don't do it. Take the nice easy slow path and build consistently. I had a question on WDC. uh sold the March 13th 25550 bullish put spread. Uh so let me take a look at that uh spread and you're asking about the bid ask spreads on the options being really wide. So here you can see that these puts are bid less than that ask. So it would be like a negative credit which is not going to happen. Would not do that spread for negative. So it's minus 50 cents offered at 285. Yeah. mile wide bid ask spread on this. At least the stock is a $255 stock. So if it moved against you, you wouldn't be able to really buy back that spread. You could, but you're going to pay through the nose because you're going to be dealing with market makers. You can see the volume super light here. So they're going to make you pay a lot to buy it back. But you could at least short the stock as it's dropping down to your strike prices to offset some of the loss on the spread. So yeah, it's I mean it's you peck around. You see if you can get your $1 credit because it is negative50 bid offered at uh 285. I'd see if I could get a $150. Start at a $150 with one contract. Then keep working your way down and to see if you may be able to get a better price for it. And once you find, hey, I can get a$120 for it. Boom. then do it for the number of contracts that you really want to uh put on. — Am I taking more risk in the small account than I would in a larger account? By definition, yes. Uh you know, because you know, if you just look at the AA position, right? So the AA position I took uh three contracts at five. So that's 1,500 uh 1650. I mean, you know, that's what a 40% 50, you know, 30% of the account total. Um, yeah, you you're that is going to always be the thing that trips you up on um these. And if you notice, I've been taking small losses quicker because they each

position represents that large of a chunk of the account balance. So, I don't let those losses run. Sometimes I would let them with like I might have let um Nvidia where I took a profit yesterday but I might have let that run in today into the runup and I would have done well but uh there you know there's a risk with that if Nvidia opened down today it's not like I can hold it any longer for earnings so I'd had to close it. So there are some decisions you make that are a little different. Um Pete take a look at AXTI another really nice daily chart. I mean, there are a lot of these that have that pattern that I'm seeing uh where you have this kind of breakout um up to all-time highs. You have these uh breaks of compression that just keep going. A lot of these smaller tech stocks seem to be doing really well. Um but this one here, AXTI, yeah, everything that you'd be looking for on um uh on a daily setup. And so when we're looking at charts like this, this is really nice stuff. Uh you can see this nice tight orderly pattern right in here. This is exactly what you want to find. You do not want stocks like we were looking at earlier with Carvana that's all over the board. When you see decent volume like this and steady orderly price action, these are buyers in here. They keep having to raise their bid because they're lifting the offer or they have competition. They want in this stock longer term because they look at what this stock is going to be worth a year, two years, three years out. And so that's typically longer term money coming to market. Really nice breakout. Good looking stock. um XOM. Uh I mean, look, if you think we're going to bomb Iran, sure. I mean, it's there's nothing about the chart today that tells me I should go long or short on it. All oil stops right now are going to be very news sensitive. Uh you know, I'm not I don't believe that an event like any type of military action Iran is going to have a larger effect on the market as a whole, but it will affect oil stocks. Certainly um you know certain like VLOO is probably a better stock to do than X SOM if you're banking on that. But um what you're really doing is buying a stock based on the thought that there might be a news event that could pop it. That's not so in that case you're not doing anything based on a technical analysis or the price action. And whenever the it's a pretty simple rule, the farther away you move from a technical analysis, just reading the price action, the more you're moving into your own interpretation, a fundamental analysis, your own interpretation of a news event or the anticipation of a news event. And that is where you're going to get into trouble. And that is where emotions come into play. I mean, if you could make every trade you make based purely on no emotion, based on the technical analysis, based on the price action, you're going to do far better. And I would really um suggest to everyone that I hope you're keeping journals and if you do simply mark the trades that are based on something other than technical analysis. If you took an X SOM trade, you'd mark it based on hope that this will happen in the news, not based on price action. And then at the end of each month, just compare your P& L of the trades that were pure price action trades compared to the trades that were based on something else. And the results going to be obvious to you. Taking a look at a couple of other questions here. Uh, I think the market's going to sell off tomorrow because Nvidia Well, okay, [sighs] you can you can make that trade if you want to, but this market not going anywhere. I don't think Nvidia is going to have much of an impact either way. My approach is going to be I'm going to wait for the news to come out. I'm going to be betting that the market is not going to move much either way. And that's why I'm selling for swing trades out of the money premium. I think it's going to stay right in this range in here. I'm gonna let time to premium decay work in my favor. And then tomorrow if I come in and your forecast is true or your thesis is right and the market sells off, great. I have no problem shorting. There are lots of good shorts right now. longs right now. on any given day, we've got a lot of sector rotation. And it's pretty cool because you're able to find

stocks that technically on an intraday basis look really strong or really weak. And that's what we've been doing in the chat room. And oftentimes the first move of the day when it's really wimpy. We wait for that move to run its course and then we trade that reversal. So when the market's gradually grinding higher, grinding higher, we're looking on the short side to see which stocks have been relatively weak that are not able to participate in that rally. And as soon as the market hits resistance, we take the short position, the market rolls over and the bottom falls out of those stocks. So on days like today, we actually have a nice breakout here through horizontal resistance. This could be a bit of a trend day that we've got working for us right now. So, we're gonna stick with the long side of it. When I think about silver right now, I I'll tell you what trade's been working really well on silver. Um Dave's been using it a lot. Um you wait for the basically days that silver has this outsized move, right? And there's plenty of them where it's up $17, down, whatever it is. um and then you straddle it for the next day um or for the end of the week because usually you get either a huge continuation the next day or a huge pullback the next day and the straddle works out. So, um that's how I've been playing silver. I haven't been playing it directionally. I've just been straddling it on days that it has a move that is about at least one stand deviation away from its usual ATR. Um, LIT I mean that stock's just insane. Um, I think it's overextended right now u looking at the chart. So I would be very careful playing a stock like uh light um at the moment. WPM is another way to play silver and that is a precial precious metals company, but they actually buy the physical metal. And you can see how that stock is near its all-time high, ready to break out here. So, that's pretty nice. But yeah, I haven't I I'm not a big metals trader. I haven't traded gold or silver. So, I've kind of been on the sidelines for that. have traded some of the mining stocks but I haven't traded the underlying. — Yeah. Um would Nvidia earnings affect Yeah. I mean look we all know Nvidia is going to affect all other tech stocks. It's certainly going to affect other semi stocks. It simply because of its drag on the ETFs right there. Nvidia is just such a huge weight on so many of the ETFs that it is going to impact it. Um, so yeah, if you're looking to trade uh a stock like AXTI or something like that, it's probably best to wait and be conservative and wait for it. A lot of people like to um use those as proxies instead of playing directly the earning, you'll play a stock like that and go long. So knowing that if Nvidia does well, that stock will do well. I mean, that is a way to do it. is less risky obviously than playing the earning stock directly. But yeah, of course, of course Nvidia is going to do it. Um Netflix, I'd be careful. Look, I'm a long-term investor for Netflix certainly, but right now Netflix is going up on the hope that the deal gets killed and Paramount gets the deal. Um, if Netflix has two more days to come back and give a better offer, if Netflix does come back with a higher offer than what Paramount has put forth, which I think is 31 a share or something like that, um, Netflix is going to take a nose dive off that. So, the hope here is that Netflix is going to walk away and be happy that Paramount overpaid. Um, but if they don't, the stock's going to drop. A lot like XOM, you're not playing the price action here. playing the potential for a move and that can always be dangerous. Um, one stock I like and it's risky, Pete, is and I know this is going to sound strange, but I kind of like Microsoft here. Let's take a look. So tell me, what do you like about it? — Well, I mean, the stock has been beaten all the hell obviously, but it's found some pretty good support on that downward sloping trend line coming off of February 5th. Um, it is looks like it has popped up above the lows. I think that I mean, in fact, this is probably a good bullish put spread. Uh, if you can get it below 370, 380 actually. This is a decent bullish putspread stock in my mind. Um, it's not as as stable as

you might like, but you might want to see a little bit more support there, but I do think you have a good upside potential. Like I said, it's a bit risky, but I think enough support has formed um where you could take a um a 400 405 call debit spread maybe for this Friday. Um where you can get that for a $1. 90 and do a couple of those. Um I don't know. I I might take here one, two, three, four, maybe three of those. I might take three 400 405 call debit spread for Microsoft. Let's see if I can get it for Yeah, I got it for $180. And so it's a little bit of an odd trade, I know, but it has some relative strength today. And I think you're getting a slight shift back into software here, but the price action on the relative strength for me gives me some basis to take this at a lower risk for a$185 on a CDS. Got a very long-term 10L trend line. I don't know if you use the trend lines or not, but this trend line goes all the way back to uh April 25th of 2023. So, that one goes back almost three years. So, yeah, this could be a nice little support level for it. I'm not doing a bullish put spread on this one because I did one earlier after uh let's see just before the earnings announcement back in here when they I had a few touches along this support line and it was staying above the 200 day moving average. I sold a uh bullish put spread below the 200 day moving average and ended up scrambling and adjusting. I did fine on it, but yeah, it was not a good trade. — Yeah, this thing could can hurt you fast. Um that's I'm just taking a three contract called debit spread uh and seeing if it just continues to pop. This thing can obviously move a lot. Um well on a short-term basis, I love the fact that it just put in a red key bar on a D1 basis. I love the fact that you have two days that instantly erased that red key bar and we're above the open of that red key bar. So I would say that it has at least the chance to get maybe up to AVWAP E. So, yeah, I do like what I've seen the last three days. — Yeah, it's just a little bit of an outside the box trade. Um, I think we're what is it? 10:05 now. So, yeah. Um, so I have AA and I have Microsoft. Those are my two positions I put on during this uh and mine is IN selling the March 13th $36 puts and those were at a buck 10. I did that trade this morning. Let me take a quick look and see where those options are. See if you can get that trade done. Even if you went uh a little bit closer to the money, I still like that. And because we've had a market that's moved higher, uh there's a good chance that the stock has also moved higher. So, let me just take a look at it. And when are you doing your podcast? What uh are they timed to come out on a certain day? — Yeah, they'll be coming out on Friday. — Okay. All right. — Every Friday, new episode. — Any sneak peek on uh what uh Friday's uh topic might be? — Um yeah. Uh the most uh common mistakes and uh problems I hear from traders and I've heard through the years um most common frustrations and mistakes. So, I'm going to go through those and how to try to maybe address them. — Okay. Awesome. Well, I certainly will be uh listening and uh yes, the IRN March 13 $36 puts$19 bid offered at a$120. A$110 is easily there. That will be my trade of the day. I think that's it for us. We'll try and do these uh probably every, you know, three weeks or so. And uh I look forward to coming on the podcast, too. — Sounds good. All right, guys. — All right, thank you everyone. I'll do a video probably tomorrow morning before the open. We will see you then. Thank you. — Bye, everyone.