The most improbable sequence in #basketball?? 1.1% #Lakers #SportsScience #Physics #Probability

We witnessed some Showtime magic from the Lakers last night with AR-15 pulling off one of the most improbable sequences in basketball. The odds of what happened next about 1%. Let's break down the sports signs. Fourth quarter, 5. 2 seconds left. Lakers down three. AR steps to the line, knocks down the first free throw, then attempts to intentionally miss the second to create a rebound opportunity. Check the lane alignment on the left block. It's Joker and DA. While Denver has a two-man advantage on the other side. Knowing this, AR fires the ball on a flat trajectory, intentionally striking the lower left side of the rim with extra velocity. A difficult precision miss that creates a long rebound towards the free throw line instead of dropping under the basket. And note, he starts cutting left before the ball even hits the rim. He's already accelerating towards the projected rebound path, beating the stationary rebounders to the spot. That wasn't luck. It was pre-planned rebound geometry. And what happens next is best explained by the numbers. Reeves came into the game shooting 87% from the free throw line. Step one, make the first free throw. Step two, the intentional miss. Across NBA tracking data, the offense recovers about 12 to 13% of missed free throws. Step three, now make it even harder. Reeves himself is getting the rebound. There isn't an official NBA stat for shooter gets his own miss. Using conservative estimates, less than 15% of those offensive free throw rebounds end up with the shooter. Step four, he has to finish the play. At the rim, NBA players convert roughly 65 to 70% of their shots. So, the estimation probability of that entire regulation sequence leads to a conservative estimate of about 1. 1%. But it didn't stop there. In overtime, Luca capped it off by hitting a game winner as time expired. All of these improbable moments unfolding in one game, a reminder that late season basketball, everything can come down to one bounce. If you don't like that, you don't like NBA