Bitcoin Rallies HARD | End Of Iran War? | OIL CRASHES! Coffee N Crypto LIVE!

Right now. Right now. Something. Right now. Right now. Something right now. Right now. — We try to bring you high quality educational andformational content every single day. Why do you think the price is having such an anemic time? The news story of the hour. Is this the beginning of a massive financial unraveling? We got to add a little addendum to the show today. So, we start here on the daily. Now, we've been looking at the RSI on the Bitcoin's daily chart for the last several days. was happening has been increasing over the last 50 years since the government. — Hey guys, what's going on? Jeff here and welcome back to Coffee and Crypto Live. This is your week daily morning show where we bring you the latest in everything Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. And in today's episode, we are going to be discussing the reason behind the major rally that we are witnessing right now on Bitcoin. Bitcoin over the weekend went through a major correction where we originally dropped back below $70,000. But on some news that came out over the last couple of hours, Bitcoin has gone through a major recovery, bouncing off of this critical support structure that we're going to be looking at today down here around 68,000 and bouncing back up here above the 1 hour 200 moving average and breaking above $70,000. Bitcoin finds itself right now wedged in between an uptrending level of resistance and support that looks strikingly similar to the same type of pattern that we saw last year and early on into this year that originally led Bitcoin to drop all the way back down to $60,000. You can see the exact same kind of pattern playing out back here where we have this bare flag that pushes us to the downside. We've discussed at great length about how Bitcoin is likely to see this fifth wave at some point to the downside. But of course, right now, the market is being mostly driven by geopolitics, not by charts. So, the question becomes, is Bitcoin going to be able to break above this uptrending level of resistance or below support? Whichever uh direction Bitcoin breaks here is most likely going to be the direction that Bitcoin will be moving for the next several months. Very excited to be here today, guys. Really appreciate all of you for being here. We have so much to catch up on, so much to cover. There was an ultimatum, an ultimatum issued by President Donald Trump about a day and a half ago, almost two days ago now, and it reads this. If Iran doesn't fully open without threat, the straight of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. you got to go for the biggest one. You know, that's the way it works when in warfare, right? Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump. Now, the reason that this is important is because this would be a major escalation which would most likely Iran for years or decades. This would not just be a knocking out of their military. So, today we're going to be discussing how this and his subsequent tweet following that we'll be discussing right here have impacted global markets. We've seen a massive crash on the price of crude oil. You can see crude oil was trading up here at about 109 and just a few minutes before he released this post, which the timing is interesting. We'll talk about that. We can see that Brent crude oil dropped in about 2 minutes 15% $16 a barrel got shaved off. Very interesting what you see happening to the daily chart here. So, as I said, very excited to be here today, guys. We've got a lot to cover. So, without much further ado, let's go ahead and dive right on into it. introduce everyone who is in chat. Little Time Mining is in chat. Good to see you. Um Brent Height Outdoors Benjamin Briggs in chat. Up to 74 and back down to 70 by the end of Wednesday. Exactly. Uhuh. Down Under Blues said, "Good day, everyone. Good day back. " Uh Brent hit Brent Height the Outdoors. Brent Height outdoor. Oh, Brent Height Outdoors said, "Morning, Jeb. " Good morning. Queen's in chat. Christopher Ryan's in chat. Um, Queen's in chat. Satchet is in chat said, "Good morning. Good afternoon. " Max Alman morning. " Good to see all of you guys. Will we see a $40,000 Bitcoin? I am leaning in the direction that a $40,000 Bitcoin is probably not going to happen. I do, however, believe that the level of support at $60,000 is still very much under threat, which is what we're going

to be discussing right now. So, let's do it. Also, big shout out to Paul Bear Long. Good to see you. Welcome to stream. All right, let's do it. Here's what you need to understand. Generally speaking, the market will spend more time in the counter trend than it does in the primary trend. [clears throat] Right now, Bitcoin is obviously in a bare market. We can also see that Bitcoin as of right now has spent the last 47 days in an uptrend. So, does that mean that the bare market is over? No, it doesn't. What it means is that we're in a counter trend against the primary trend. You see, you see the exact same thing take place in the bull markets. In the bull markets, Bitcoin spends the majority of its time in a counter trend. You can see right here we have a short rally followed by an almost year-long counter trend. We have a rally that lasts a couple of months followed by a counter trend. We have a rally that's relatively quick and then you actually started basically trading sideways here. These three impulses made up probably about a third to maybe only a quarter of the actual time that was spent during the bull market. And the exact same thing is taking place right now in the bare market. The bare uh market uh impulses, these movements to the downside are exceedingly rapid. Whereas the corrective movements against the bare market in that case that means that those are rallies take a lot longer. But just because the uptrends take longer does not mean that the bare market has concluded. If anything, it's actually evidence that the bull market is still a little ways away. It's evidence that the bare market is not over. And I want us to be very careful when we see Bitcoin in a very shallow uptrend like this to claim victory and say that the bull market is back and that Bitcoin is done crashing because when we make comments like that, we are ignoring the fact that Bitcoin generally spends significantly more time in the counter trend than it does in the primary trend. This is why we have to make sure that we are positioned ahead of time before these movements take place because when they start to take place, generally speaking, they happen a lot faster than you can prepare for. The movement of $46,000 to the downside took 45 days. Then the recovery, we stayed in recovery for 52 days. Then the drop right here, we dropped $38,000 in 22 days. And so far we've been bouncing for 45 days. So generally speaking, the corrective movements against the primary trend with the primary trend being bearish actually take longer in time than the drops. And so what does that mean? What that means is that we need to be on the lookout for a break of structure below this uptrending level of support. If you'll recall when we identified this uptrending level of support in this bare flag here, that was in the final days of this bounce and it was right here at the beginning of this drop. And as soon as we saw that Bitcoin was breaking through this uptrending level of support down here on the 4hour chart and the hourly chart, that's when we were able to be confident that a revisit of $80,000 was going to take place and even that Bitcoin was going to drop lower. And so it seems like a good thing that Bitcoin is trending to the upside here. But essentially all I've been saying for the last few minutes is I've been explaining to you the way a bare flag works. That's what this is. It's a bare flag. And if you were to take the price target, depending on how you extrapolate it, the price target would be pointing to the downside. In fact, it would be pointing into the mid $40,000 range. And if we did drop into the mid-40s, that probably would be the end of the bare market because you would be seeing this 1 2 3 4 5 kind of structure play out. Now, this gets a lot more complicated when we are discussing what's going on in the world because there is an enormous conflict in the Middle East. After 70s something years of Middle Eastern conflicts, this is by far hands down the most consequential one. I would argue it may even be more consequential than the Iraq war because what you're dealing with is a war against the actual uh against the actual superpower in the actual regional power in the region, which is Iran. We've been fighting different proxies of Iran for the last half century, but Iran is the actual nexus of what of what's taking place in the Middle East. And you have the shutting down of the straight of Hormuz. We are now looking at the largest most significant energy crisis that we've seen in decades. We've not seen anything like this in a very long time. And so what this means is that has now taken the driver's seat of markets. All of these patterns are important and we need to pay attention to them and it's and we have to understand what they mean but we do also have to understand that right now geopolitics is the driver not a driver it is the driver of every market it is

the driver so the United States stock market and Bitcoin over the last 45 days have been positioned for a move to the downside however it's important to understand that whether or not the move actually takes place most likely comes down to what takes place in the Middle East. I cannot stress enough when you see 20% of global crude oil supply, about 15 to 25% of liqufied natural gas supply the world over get taken off markets in a market that is extremely inelastic. In other words, just because you reduce demand does not mean, sorry, supply does not mean the demand is going to reduce right along with it. you have the makings of literally the largest energy crisis of the century. That's no exaggeration and that's what you're seeing take place here with crude oil. So with all of that in mind, let's take a look at the crude oil futures. what it's doing to the stock market and let's see how it's impacting Bitcoin. Ultimately, what I'd like to do in this video is I'd like to arrive on a conclusion of up or down. whether or not we forecast that Bitcoin is going to fall through its support structure or whether or not it's going to break through this resistance. And I want to make sure that as we arrive at that conclusion, we understand what the triggers are of a break to the upside, what a trigger downside are. And I want to make sure that you know what to do in both scenarios because I want you to be prepared for both outcomes. If that sounds good, give me a one in chat. Very excited about being here today with you guys. Really appreciate all of you for tuning in. Sure looks like the second bare flag has formed. That is exactly what it looks like to me. In fact, if you look down here on the hourly chart, what you're going to find is that the levels of support line up perfectly. It's it is uncanny. It looks exactly the same as what we saw in uh what was this? December and January, right? December and January looks virtually identical. The bottoms are very uh very um very much in line with each other. there's not very much variation. They're very much touching right there on the line. So that support trend and the resistance trend are very well um very well structured. It's very obvious where they are, which means that the entire market will know uh basically immediately should one break. All right. So in keeping with what we've said about what is driving the market, we need to talk a little bit about this guy. If Iran does not fully open without threat the straight of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants starting with the biggest one first. Let's break this down. Okay, so the straight of Hormuz again as I said about 20% of global crude and global liqufied natural gas supplies go through the straight of Hormuz. We have an inelastic demand meeting a variable supply, a reduced supply. And if you've taken about five seconds of economics, you will know that means prices must go up. It's it's like a law of nature. If you keep demand the same and you reduce the supply by 20% on a market this large, um you're going to see a dramatic increase in prices. Well, the difficult thing about that is that it's actually not just crude oil prices that are going up. There's actually a lot of different prices going up. I read an article about tungsten carbide uh drill bits that are used in manufacturing processes in the United States. Those bits, those different pieces of those different tools have doubled in price because tons carbide is used in um ammunition manufacturing which is production for that in the United States has basically about quadrupled in the last 3 months. And so it's actually not just oil that is going up in price. It is also as we said liqufied natural gas. It is the price of electricity. gasoline, diesel, all of the byproducts of these processes. So you have the cost of fuel that is being used to heat people's homes going up. You have the cost of electricity that is plastics going up. You have the cost of tungsten going up. You have the cost of copper and lead and many of these different uh metals going up. And so when you see a conflict like this, so much of the world's resources are being drawn into the conflict that they're being taken away from other uh sectors of the global economy. Not just the crude, not just the liqufied natural gas, but also of course as defense contractors or offense contractors, war contractors, whatever you want to call them, begin to hoover up more and more supplies, then you have an increased demand on these different supplies of of metals. That causes an increase in the cost of raw resources in basically every single sector. And so it does take about 3 to 12 months for inflation to start showing up in the data. as a result of a global conflict like this or black swan event like this. It takes time. It's not something that happens immediately, but it is something we are going to start seeing in the next

few months. And so, as you see the price of oil coming up here up over $100 a barrel and staying there for weeks, as you see the price of many different metals, many different inputs into a plethora of supply chains world over because all of these prices with modern uh with modern globalization are more like more or less globalized prices. there's not much of a premium and a discount if you go into different territories. So, it's affecting the United States also and the West. This is going to be a driver of inflation. And this is actually why a little bit later we're going to be talking about the possibility of rate hikes. Everybody's been looking forward to rate cuts, but instead we are now actually looking at the possibility of a rate hike. You can see there's a 7 a 91. 7% chance that we will remain current at the next meeting in 37 days, but and we were current uh we stayed current last Friday on the 18th. Um, but there's actually a possibility that we're going to be seeing a rate hike at this point as a result of this conflict. So, everything really does boil down to this chart and also boils down to all of the other uh inputs to global supply chains that are being affected by this conflict. So, Trump says this about 36 hours later. Now, this is about three hours ago. In fact, it's just a little past three hours ago. Donald Trump says this. I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and by the way, it is interesting to note that he posted this two hours before the stock market opened because he posted this right after the stock market closed. Donald Trump's a businessman. He understands that the stock market closed on the weekend. That's why all of his big stuff happens on the weekend when he's got the world as a captive audience and when the market is closed. And he posts this right before the stock market opens. We'll kind of break that down in a minute. I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed and construct and constructive conversations which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a 5-day period subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Now great, a resolution is in sight. That's what everybody thinks, right? That's a big part of the reason why oil jumped off a cliff. Now, can anybody say insider trading with me? Can someone please say an Let's do this like we're insider trading. Aha. Hello. It's a thing. The crash on the price of oil. Yeah. Right here. The one that where we dropped 15%. That took place 15 minutes before this post went out. I'd like to know how someone knew to go and sell all of these futures and short the living hell out of this market 15 minutes before Trump posted that. I'd really like to know who did that. I'D LOVE TO KNOW. MAYBE HE'S a baron somewhere. of a small OH, WAIT. MAYBE HIS NAME'S BARON. I have no idea. Who the heck knows, right? Who has any idea? I wonder. But obviously there was nothing else going on in the news that I can find. If I'm missing something, please tell me. But as far as I can find, I can't find anything that would have caused the price of oil to crash by 15 minute uh by 15% 15 minutes before he posted this. Hey, maybe we should go save some money on car insurance. You know what I mean, right? I don't have any idea how else you can explain this crash because according to my chart, it says here at 7:23 is right here and crash started at 7:05. That was 18 minutes before he posted this. Maybe it's possible that I'm missing something. I'm not going to accuse anyone. I'm just joking about the Baron thing. But anyway, I'd love to know how someone knew. That's what I'd like to know because left, right, center, the corruption in our country is insane. It is. It is palpable. It's palpable. You could take a knife and you could just like cut a slice of it off. It's disgusting. Anyway, [sighs] off my let's grab the soap box and let's keep moving here. Okay, now great. Awesome. A sessation to hostilities. Markets are saved. Except Iran completely and totally denies having any talks with the United States following Trump's remarks on productive conversations. And late last week, Donald Trump said he doesn't even know how to get in contact with the Iranian regime because he doesn't even know who's in charge. He doesn't even they don't even know how to talk to Iran because all the people that they knew how to talk to are either dead or the people that they do talk to, everyone that they talk to are dead. So, I don't think that what this is what it I don't that this is accurate. I don't think that this is true. what I do. But at the

same time, I also don't think that Donald Trump's an idiot. I don't think that he just got pushed around. What I think is happening is that he's putting some leverage on Iran, saying basically this is the way that Trump has always negotiated. Um he walks into a room, he says, "I'm going to freaking kill you unless you play ball. " And then that kind of step that kind of steps up the conversation. And then over here, he covers them and he's like, "Oh, no, no, no. I'm going to let the world think that we're having a conversation. So, you dang well better have a conversation with me or I'm going to end you. Either that or it could be the whole taco thing. T Trump again chickens out or whatever. So, it could be one of those two scenarios. Either one, he overplayed his hand. Um Iran threatened to strike desalination facilities in the region, which obviously the entirety of the Middle East is one giant desert. You strike desalination facilities, people start dying because they don't have anything to drink. um they threatened to strike energy infrastructure. So, it's possible that Trump chickenened out. I don't personally think that that's what happened to be quite honest with you. I think that what probably is taking place right now is that this is probably being used behind the scenes as leverage to say negotiate with us or die. We shall see. What I will say is that just because this message is here does not mean that we should necessarily conclude that the war is about to end. And I do believe that markets are starting to price that in. What we are seeing right now over on the S&P 500 is interesting because after Donald Trump's post when the markets opened a couple of hours later they've been marching higher but you'll notice they are still quite depressed from the overall top to bottom we've seen a decline by 7 12% on US equities and there's a very real likelihood that we will see equities drop all the way back down to about 612 as we have seen the US stock market play out this trend of going back towards previous all-time highs multiple times over the course of this decade. There's a very real possibility that that's going to take place again. And it is also very important to note that here on the daily chart for the S&P 500, we are currently looking at the S&P 500 being stuck below the 200 daily simple moving average. Now, the good news is that this candlestick is taking place right here. And this is not quite an abandoned baby candlestick, but this is very close in that realm. Um, theoretically, when you have a candlestick that looks a little bit something like this, right? You've got one candlestick right here. You've got another candlestick that's like down here and is abandoned in the sense that it's got a gap on either side and it looks a little bit something like this. Theoretically, this is what is known as an abandoned baby candlestick. Now, this is not technically that because the wicks do overlap. So, there's no true gap here. But in general, this structure of having a candlestick down here just get completely, you know, um left behind on both sides. It's generally speaking a very strong bottoming signal for any market. We saw the exact same thing take place on Micro Strategy not too long ago. We saw it happen right here. And it did not mark the bottom, but as you can see, we did end up having a bottom form relatively soon. And now strategy is sitting down here um where it is not that basically marked the end of the majority of the downtrend. You can see there's a very clear pivot right there around this type of candle we have now seen form on the S&P 500. Now as I said it's important to note that this is not technically fulfilling all of the criterion for that uh candlestick formation because you do have overlap on these wicks but they are small. So you are still getting a bit of that. that sense that might be a at least temporary bottom. All of this really comes down to what I'm trying to say here is that all of this really comes down to analyzing Trump and what he's doing. So genuinely market analysis right now comes down to getting in the head of Donald Trump because Donald Trump is the one that is leading this military operation. This military operation is what is disrupting global crude markets. It liqufied natural gas markets and it is also what is disrupting all kinds of other inputs to global supply chains. Depending on how Trump acts here uh decides whether or not this conflict continues for a long time because if this conflict does conclude relatively soon, you will probably see a sharp resurgence in equities and a continued bull market more or less most likely. Not only that, but you'll probably see that all you'll probably also see that exact same thing take place because during this correction over the last few months, you've actually had some very healthy corrections on some big names like Microsoft is down 31%. You see Google has taken a bit of a corrective movement right here. Obviously, we know that Nvidia hasn't taken a big correction, but Nvidia obviously is leading the entire stock market right now. But in general, what we're looking at right now is that this uh this war has provided the market with

an opportunity to flush out the leverage. It's provided an opportunity for investors to get lower entries. It's provided an opportunity to reset the market a little bit. We've talked about this concept of a control burn before in markets where you have to see this crash sometimes. uh come in, knock out all of the overleveraged positions, knock out the weak hands so that you can rebuild a strong bedrock foundation upon which you can build. And so that does seem to be what this conflict is uh is creating thus far. So, I want to give you a word from our sponsors and then we're going to go ahead and start drawing conclusions on where I think that this overall um conflict is going to take us, what the conclusion of it is going to look like, and what the implication we are going to see this all have on global markets. But before we do that, I do want to give a big shout out to the sponsor of today's video, which would be none other than the one and only iTrust Capital. I love iTrust Capital. I have an account with iTrust Capital. I invest in Bitcoin inside of Itrust Capital. And the reason that I personally me Jeb uses iTrust Capital is because it capital is the number one provider of retirement accounts for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. And let me just tell you something. I hate taxes. I hate them. I cannot stand taxes. I'm not going to go committing tax fraud. I will never do that. Our books are squeaky clean. But I do not like paying taxes. So any possible way that I can get a deduction on taxes, even in principle, I'm going to take all of them. Every last one of them. I have paid hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars in taxes in my life across FICA taxes and income taxes and all kinds of taxes. I'm so sick of t property taxes. My god, taxes, taxes. I hate taxes. Death and taxes. Those are the only two assert certainties. But what if we say death to certain taxes? Well, what we can do is we can actually avoid some taxes if we utilize our retirement accounts. And a lot of people say, Jeb, retirement accounts, I don't want to lock my funds up for that long. I'm sorry. Isn't Bitcoin supposed to be like the ultimate long-term hold? Of course it is. Bitcoin is the perfect asset to put inside of a Roth IRA or a traditional IRA because what you're doing is you're investing in the greatest store of value, the greatest scarce asset in the history of mankind, and you're doing it in an account where you are not going to have to pay taxes. A traditional IRA, you can deduct whatever you contribute from your tax this year. And on a Roth IRA, you don't have to pay tax. You pay post tax dollars, but you don't have to pay taxes on the distributions. So, for example, in a Roth IRA, let's say you buy $10,000 worth of Bitcoin. Your Bitcoin grows and it's now worth $60,000. You sell your Bitcoin for a $50,000 capital gain. You have to pay 0. That's right. 0 in capital gains taxes because you invested in Bitcoin through a Roth IRA. ITR Capital is hands down the best place to buy Bitcoin. There are different ETFs that I buy that track Bitcoin, but I don't hold any IBIT because I want to hold actual Bitcoin. iTrust Capital is not a place where you go and buy a derivative or a securitized packaging of Bitcoin. It's a place where you actually buy Bitcoin and you have genuine real Bitcoin in your account. It's not an exchange traded product. It's actual Bitcoin. You can buy and hold actual Bitcoin, Nitrous Capital. So, if you haven't already, I highly encourage you to sign up for ITRO Capital and contribute to your retirement accounts in the Bitcoin cryptocurrency market using iTrust Capital. Go to it capital. com/go/cryptoyen Jeb. The link will be in the description box down below. Now, where we going next? All right. Once again, this all comes back down to our analysis of how Trump thinks. And I suppose then it comes down to this conversation about whether or not Trump is chickening out, whether he's playing 4D chess. Genuinely, the direction of the United States stock market. And this is just the hilarity of what the 21st century has brought us. We used to be a proper nation, you know. nation. It used to be obvious. very straightforward how things work. Now we have the apprentice deciding which direction the stock market goes. The United States S&P 500 just bounced around by $3 trillion in the span of like two hours. This guy posted an all caps post on his social media platform that no one but him uses. It's just I just find it very funny. People get so caught up in the politics of I hate this person, I hate that person, glad this, I'm glad that. I just think it's funny. absolutely hilarious. I don't think it's hilarious that there's a war going on and I don't think that it's hilarious that this is impacting people's lives. So, there's that. But I do think it's just absolutely hilarious that the market is being driven by this guy. Anyway, is Trump gonna chicken out or is he playing 40 chess? I think he's playing 40 chess personally. You can

think what you want, but I think he's playing 40 chess. I think what he's doing here is he is continuing to use his same art of the deal playbook that he's used in all of his negotiations, which is um I'm going to kill you unless you play ball. And then to pressure you even more, I'm going to tell everybody that you're playing ball. So now you have to come out and say that you're not the good guy. It's genuinely I mean you on the one hand you have all the greatest generals in history that act like this. On the other hand you have those two really annoying teenage girls acting like this. It's you're going to do this or else. Oh goody. You're already doing it. What? I never AGREED TO THAT. OH, SO you're the bad guy. I see. It's all your fault. And you can wave your finger at him. Say I said that we were having a negotiation here. You said well I never said but you did. Could it be a case of Trump always chickens out? Absolutely. Could totally be a case of that. And maybe there is some of that. I mean, knocking out all of Iran's uh power grid, that's a really big threat. It's So, there is possible that that's a big part of it. But at the same time, when you are negotiating with someone and you're being ruthless, which is what Trump is doing here, obviously, because we're at war, what he is able to do is say, "Oh, they're getting along so good. I'm making them look so good. Oh, good old Iran. Oh, yeah. I love Iran. They're having so they're being so very good. Very, very good. Very good conversation. But a very good conversation and productive conversation regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of the of these in-depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue out throughout the week, I've instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iran. Essentially, the playbook here is good job Iran. You played ball. Iran's like, "What? I never said that. " And Trump's like, "Good job. Great. Just keep it up. " And then Iran gets forced into this position of continuing to look like the bad guy. And what this does is this gives Trump even more leverage. It gives a leverage for Trump to go around and tell all of the allies, "I tried to talk to them. We were talking to them. They backed out of the negotiations, what the heck. " Or on the other hand, Iran just caves and says, "All right, fine. I guess we'll talk. " This is a piece of the playbook. I would guess that this post and this angle was probably a part of the planning before he actually sent out the first post. I would imagine that this was the um bait and this was the hook and now Iran is under this opaces of everybody thinks that we're playing ball. if Ron is over here denying it because they're trying to weasel out of what Trump is doing. But I don't know that that's going to I don't think work. Essentially, what this does is this takes the threat out of the public sphere and puts it right back into the private sphere so that a conversation can be had because behind the scenes, we're probably not operating under this post. We're probably still That's what I think is happening. Now, obviously, it's a very political idea whether or not Trump is a chicken and he's chickening out or whether or not he is actually being a strong negotiator, and I don't want to weigh too much into that debate. You can think what you want. What I will do is I'll analyze how the market is going to play out in both of those scenarios. Whether or not he's chickening out or whether or not he is actually being a strong negotiator, you can decide for yourself which direction you think the market is going to go based on what you think he is going to do. But what I will say is that if he is being strong and if he is backing Iran into a corner with these posts and with his demeanor, then that does mean that a resolution to the conflict is probably on the horizon. And if we do see a resolution to the conflict on the horizon, which is what I am leaning in the direction of thinking, then that means that we are probably going to see a bounce on the United States stock market relatively soon. Generally speaking, when you see geopolitical events like this lead to a drop on the US stock market, generally speaking, you're looking at about 15 to 45 days, and you're looking about 5 to 15% worth of a drop off of the highs. And that's basically what we've seen. We've seen the market ever since the beginning of this conflict, we've been dropping for a little under a month because the war is old. And then we've also seen the market drop about 5% since its inception. Donald Trump in general does not like to cause the market to drop very deep. Obviously, we had this tariff crash over here when he announced these tariffs. And as you will recall, when we got down here right around the all-time high, he kind of backed off and said, "Okay, there's going to be tariffs, but they're not going to be as strong. " It's the exact same thing that he's doing here. playbook. If you'll recall with the tariffs, okay, we're going to slam an 80% tariff on everybody. Oh, everybody's being so sweet. So, what we're going to do instead is we're just going to give him a 30% tariff. The original intention was always the 30% tariff. That's how negotiations work. I mean, seriously, when you go into a negotiation, you ask for something absolutely ridiculous and you defend it and then you give like an inch and generally speaking, you get you end up getting more than you would have what you would have gotten otherwise, especially if you're in the position of

strength that the United States military is in. very much dominating the battlefield right now. It's it is it it's it's very much a it's it is a very powerful military that we have. And so when you see that same thing taking place, it ends up acting the same way on the markets. This drop here was as a result of the tariff crash. And as the markets start going lower and lower, Trump comes in and says, "Actually, we're going to cut the tariffs in half. They're actually going to be lower because everybody's so sweet to us. " And essentially, you teed yourself up to make yourself look good because ah I I'm complimenting everyone even though they didn't do anything. And then that makes me look good because I'm being so complimentary of all of our friends. It's the exact same thing that's going to take place here. We're going to see the stock market continue to generally trend downward until Trump gets enough of what he wants. And then there's going to be a post at some point in the next few weeks where he says, "Oh, glorious, great people of Iran. They have made such a wise decision. They've made such a fantastic decision to make peace. What good people are in power now? " And he's probably going to call some absolutely horrible death spot in Iran. A great guy because this guy came to the table and had a great negotiation. and the guy's probably a complete jerk right now. I mean, we're looking at Kenny's son, right? He's the guy that's in power and he's worse than his father. Um, but that's what's going to end up happening. Trump runs the same playbook every single time and he does it because it works. He asks for more than what he's ever going to get. And because he asks for the moon, he ends up getting, you know, a lot more than what he would have gotten otherwise. And so I would forecast that if he's operating in strength here and if he is the one that is leading this conflict and when we look at the actual military analysis of this that very much seems to be the case. I would forecast that we're looking at another couple of weeks of war and then it's probably going to conclude. And I also think that at this point we're probably going to see the S&P 500 bounce somewhere around 612 which is our previous all-time high. The all-time high that we set right before the tariff crash. Then we're probably going to move higher. What this is effectively going to what this effectively is going to do is this is most likely going to lead to a very healthy flush out of a very healthy check. Sorry about that. Like we had a little bit of a desync. Let me get my camera fixed here. Um, what that's most likely going to lead to is a what that is this very healthy flush out of the market where you see the overlever knocked out. It's going to provide a buying opportunity. I've been buying a lot of my favorite assets, Bitcoin and everything on this uh downtrend down here. And so that is something that I do anticipate is going to continue. So that would be my prediction is that this is probably one of the later stages of the negotiations, stage of the planning for how this military operation is going. This is probably the beginning stages of what is going to end up turning into some kind of conflict resolution. On the other hand, if this is Trump chickening out as you would, Iran could theoretically just continue launching missiles missiles. Um, but the issue is if Iran does actually start attacking desalination plants and [clears throat] um does actually start attacking um energy production facilities around the region, then what you're most likely going to see is an overwhelming response from the United States of America, which would almost certainly lead to um 5 to 15 years worth of rebuilding on the Iranian front. not just at that point in time from military but also from civilian and um industrial infrastructure. When you're looking at power plants, you're looking at uh liqufied natural gas, oil production, you might be looking at an invasion of Car Island. You may be looking at a uh the uh various marine expeditionary units sailing into the um sailing into the Persian Gulf um putting troops on the ground. Um so this thing can escalate, but I don't think Iran wants that. I think Iran wants the war to end. And so I do think that there's going to be some kind of resolution coming to pass in the next couple of weeks and I think that is going to end up causing a major bounce on markets. Now where does that lead Bitcoin? Where this leads Bitcoin is a little bit more tricky because Bitcoin theoretically at that point in time would default back to its bare market. it market structure. And it bare market structure is such that um if we are not seeing [gasps] a major breakout above this uptrending level of resistance, then you're probably going to fall through this support because that's what the overall pattern would predict. And so my prediction would be this. If the resolution of this conflict, which will most likely take place in April, if that conflict resolution takes place and it leads Bitcoin back up here above this uptrending level of resistance, then Bitcoin still has to get through very sharp resistance up here between $80 and $85,000. If Bitcoin is able to get

through 80 to $85,000, then that's where you could start building an inverse head and shoulders pattern that would lead Bitcoin back into a bull market. However, that would be, in my opinion, unlikely to take place because typically bare markets are significantly deeper than this. So, regardless of what happens, I do still think that you're probably going to see Bitcoin, generally speaking, uh, moving to the downside here. Um, if we do see the war end relatively soon, then that does increase the likelihood that Bitcoin's bare market could be over. But do keep in mind that the United that the Bitcoin market was forecasted to drop below $60,000 before this war ever began. The reason that Bitcoin is down here is not because of the war in Iran. The reason that Bitcoin is down here is because of its four-year having cycle. it is because Bitcoin has for a very long time needed to have a correction back down to its baseline long-term trending levels of support. And that is exactly what we are seeing right now. Bitcoin is having a reversion back down to its long-term support. These are buying zones. These are buying opportunities. And so that kind of leads me into what we should be doing with this. this timeline while we're having this conflict in Iran, while we're seeing Bitcoin down here trading below $71,000, $72,000. What we should be doing is we should be taking great advantage of these bonding opportunities because Bitcoin and your favorite ETFs, they're not going to be down here forever. you're not going to see the market down here in this range forever. So, if you do love Bitcoin and you believe in Bitcoin in the long run, $71,000 is still a phenomenal entry and it's an entry that I would highly encourage you to take seriously. Um, but I would not be confident at this point in time that $60,000 is going to hold. I have been absolutely completely and totally 100% consistent ever since we hit $60,000 that $60,000 was not going to hold. The day we touched it, I said it wasn't going to hold. And this recovery so far looks very similar to this one. And I don't think that the bottom is in. However, if we do start going below $60,000, that's where I'm going to begin saying the bottom is in or the bottom is close. And it's a very good idea in that opinion in my opinion at that point in time to begin seriously leveling up your Bitcoin stack because I do believe in the next bull market, you're going to see Bitcoin eclipse $200,000 a coin and the kind of return that you're going to get from that is going to be absolutely enormous. All right, let's read a little bit of chat and then we are going to wrap it out here. I really appreciate all of you guys being here. Art of the nonsense he is playing making long short on markets making money. Yeah, ultimately [snorts] the it you know you can go back and forth on what he's doing. Either he's a chicken and he has no idea what he's doing or he's a great negotiator and military tactician. I mean you can go back and forth. I take the position that I do think he has a plan. I do think that he's doing what he's doing for a reason. Um, and I do think that if his objective was to decimate the Iranian military, um, that he achieved that objective. That said, it does seem to be in Donald Trump's best interest that this war concludes soon. Donald Trump has spoken at length against the forever war concept, and I would imagine that he does not intend on staying there forever. That's what I would believe. So, I don't think that this thing is going to drag on forever. I do think that you're going to see a resolution at some point in the next couple of weeks. Imagine the pump once we have clarity. Yep, that will definitely help. Good morning, Jeb. Good morning, Miguel Orangel. Good to see you. [snorts] 100% theater. Yep. Holding that four-wave, five wave starting soon. That's what I think. Tall Paul. That's what I believe. Taco truck backing in. The devil comes to kill, steal, and destroy, fam. Is that not what this is? As I said, I am not a fan of war. I'm also not a fan of people killing civilians either. So, it does ultimately I'm glad that I'm not the leader of either one of these countries to be quite honest with you because I don't want the blood on my hands. we get a recession, what could happen to the next Bitcoin bull run? Well, that would theoretically stunt Bitcoin, but it is important to remember that Bitcoin went through this 800% bull market in the midst of high interest rates and quantitative tightening. So, I don't think that a recession would stop Bitcoin. I think that you would continue to see a great deal of inflows into Bitcoin. If anything, we actually have seen various um precious metals work very well during recessions in the past. During the 2008 financial crisis, gold went on an absolute tear. Um from the beginning of from the

beginning of '08 to the end of 2010, that three-year period, gold was up 44%. And so, while Bitcoin is not gold, gold is Bitcoin's big brother, if you will. And you have seen exceptional performance on assets during exceptional performance on scarce assets during um during recessions. So I actually think that Bitcoin would perform very well during a recession personally. Now I also want to mention before we wrap it out here I want to mention this chart which would be the Bitcoin over gold chart is very interesting to me that has begun to b ottom. Many people have astutely pointed out that the bare markets in gold versus Bitcoin traditionally last about 14 months. And that bare market is theoretically coming to its conclusion. This is why I've told you I've told you straight up to hedge what I'm saying a little bit because we probably will see a sub $60,000 Bitcoin. However, this is a very good buy because genuinely Bitcoin should be compared to gold before it the dollar. This is a very powerful chart because it shows the long-term trend and this is most likely representing a bottom on Bitcoin as gold goes through this major corrective movement. Gold has gone through this sharp correction over the last 48 hours. You can see that it's absolutely just completely fallen off a cliff over the last 5 days or so. Down almost 20% store of value, right? I'm just kidding. Gold's a great store of value in the long run, but Bitcoin is also. And it is very interesting to me how as US equities have been um bottoming out bottoming out and dropping Bitcoin has bounced. And even now we're looking at uh gold falling aggressively as Bitcoin is actually bouncing. And so that is something that I am very encouraged by. You can see the trend here. You can see from the uh from the beginning of March on you can see gold declining while Bitcoin rallies and that is very simply because Bitcoin is overextended to over to the downside and gold was overextended to the upside and so both of them have to have the reversion to their longerterm trends and so the value rotation from gold into Bitcoin is truly going to be enormous. This is something we've been calling for the last 6 months and of course obviously eventually it'll be right. I couldn't tell you when from the very beginning that I've started saying that. I've told you I have no idea when it's going to take place, but at some point the value the capital rotation out of gold into Bitcoin is going to be gargantuan and you're going to see a massive run on Bitcoin that is going to be partially fueled by an exodus out of gold because quite frankly, let me put it this way. When I was a kid, you didn't see 80 year olds on phones. Flip phones were a thing. I remember when flip phones came out. I remember when the camera phone came out. I was like three or four, right? But I remember that. And you didn't see anybody at the retirement center with a flip phone. You didn't see that. Now you walk around and all the 80-year-olds, they got smartphones and they're sitting there scrolling just like everyone else. I'm like, aren't you supposed to be like knitting a blanket or something? But the thing is, wow, people get older. So the people that are 80 now were 50 when cellular devices started coming out. So they got with the times. And everybody who didn't get with the times, well, they're not here anymore. Not to be morbid, but that's just the way it works. I'm just being honest, right? All the people that believe in gold but don't believe in Bitcoin, it is a generational thing. There is a very heavy skew towards people that are below the age of 60 that understand Bitcoin. And there's a lot of wealth in pensions and in 401ks and in uh you know IAS and whatnot in retirees that are over the age of 65. As they pass on, they will hand off their wealth to younger generations that understand Bitcoin. There's this generational flow that we have to consider where wealth is going to be flowing from the older um retired individuals to younger people that more so understand Bitcoin. And that is a trend that is going to um continue to lead to more inflows into Bitcoin as time goes on. And that is a trend that we should not neglect. Now, I want to also let you know about why it is so important to protect yourself while you're browsing online. You see, it's very very important that you are taking every precaution to make sure that you're safe while you're browsing online. And that is why I wanted to give you a bit of a shout out from one of the sponsors of our video, which would be none other than NordVPN. If you guys have not already signed up for NordVPN, you should because NordVPN is here to keep you safe while you browse online. You see, there are hackers and thieves trying to close your straight of Hormuz. They're trying to shut you down. They're trying to steal all of your oil. They are trying to come for your base. take all of your wealth. And the best thing that you can do to build capital and to

build wealth is to ensure that you don't lose it in the first place to a hacker or a thief. And that's why I highly recommend NordVPN to everyone that watches our channel because NordVPN is going to help reroute your search traffic so that the world does not see where your information is going does not see your home address, your IP address, your social security number, your bank account data, your bank account login, your login to Coinbase, your login to Crypto. com, whatever it may be, your login to it Capital. NordVPN is going to help keep all of that information safe so you don't get hacked, have everything stolen from you. This is why it is a great investment at $3. 33 a month. I use the word investment very carefully. I don't say, "Oh, we need to invest in this. that. " No, it's an investment if it has a monetary return or very serious return elsewhere. This is an investment. $3. 33 a month to protect all of your information from hackers and thieves is a very good investment. And that is my advice to you. You should sign up for NordVPN. the link in the description box down below and get access to all of their offerings. I hope you guys have enjoyed today's video. If you did, make sure to hit that like button and subscribe to the channel. Tell me down below which direction do you think Bitcoin's going next? Do you think we're about to see this massive um run on stocks because Trump is going to conclude the uh war? Do you think that the war is going to drag on and on and we're not going to see a conclusion to it anytime soon and you're going to see the stock market crash? I'd love to hear your opinions on that down below. Really appreciate all of you guys being here. I'm going to have to wrap it out. But before I go, I do just first want to thank each and every single last one of you for watching as always. And I will see you guys in the next video. Peace. [sighs] Oh, I got a real good feeling. feeling like there is lightning in my bones. Yeah. I got a real good feeling. I want higher than I've ever known. Yeah, I got a real good feel like there is something deep in my real good feeling.