3 Hidden Factors That Can Predict Your Future

Why does it seem like some people always come out on top? They dominate in a lot of different areas and everything just seems to go their way. And why are certain individuals unable to catch a break and always get the short end of the stick? Does it just boil down to luck and genetics? Maybe. However, I believe there are additional factors at play here. Let’s explore some of them to gain a better and more nuanced understanding of why some people just keep succeeding and why others keep failing. And more importantly, I’ll show you the way to use all of that information to your advantage. When it comes to sports, there’s a hidden factor that determines future success that not many people know about. Let’s take a look at two different individuals. Alex and John. Both were born in the year 2000, the only difference is that Alex was born in January, while John was born in December. If we fast forward 8 years, Alex and John are now attending their local primary school. Since they were both born in the year 2000 they were grouped together and are therefore now classmates. Both of them enjoy playing football and have signed up for football practice, which they attend together. However, Alex is doing much better compared to John, even though they are both getting the same amount of practice in. So what’s the catch here? Why is there a difference? Well, Alex actually has a huge secret advantage over John. As mentioned, he was born in January, as opposed to John who was born in December. That means that, despite being in the same grade, Alex is actually 11 months older than John and has almost a whole year of development over him. Because of his age, he’s bigger, stronger and faster. Not because he trains insanely hard, but because he’s more grown up and more physically developed. Having a whole year of extra development over someone is a massive advantage when you’re young. Imagine pitting primary schoolers against middle schoolers. You already know who would come out on top. This phenomenon is known as the relative age effect, and was made popular by Glad Malcolm’s book “The Outliers. ” Basically what it means is that because people are grouped together based on the calendar year, in our case it was the year 2000, those who are born earlier in that year, tend to perform better than those born at the end of it. And some of you might think this is ridiculous. However, I just want you to take a look at this chart. What it represents is the distribution of professional football players’ birth months. Most of them were born at the beginning of the year, as opposed to the end of the year. And the same phenomenon has been observed in almost every other sport. So we have actual statistical data that fully supports this effect. Of course not every country or state has the same cut-off date of December 31st. But it doesn’t really matter. Whatever the cut-off date is, in every case, you end up with children who are almost a year older than their peers. So even if you move the cut-off date, the relative age effect will just move with it. And it’s not just limited to sports, but it can be seen in education and later in the workforce as well. For example, in the Netherlands, the school year starts in October, which means that October kids are the oldest in class, while September kids are the youngest. And guess who struggles the most? It’s the September kids. They are more likely to repeat a grade, simply due to the fact that they aren’t as mentally developed as their older classmates. So the relative age effect is something that’s really hard to combat, because even if you move the dates, it will just move along with them. Now you might think that these advantages disappear over time. After all, those individuals who were born late, eventually catch up to their older peers, right? Unfortunately, that isn’t necessarily the case. What might have initially been a smaller advantage, over time it compounds, and eventually turns into an extremely big one. Because people like Alex, who were born earlier are more physically capable, they get more playtime, they get passed the ball more often, the coaches notice them more, they get more experience, they get picked up by better teams, therefore they get better training, and the cycle continues on and on. It’s the same in the classroom. Since older children are more mentally developed, they get higher grades, they get more attention from teachers, so they are more likely to get into gifted programs where they get better and more tailored education, which in turn makes them more likely to attend and graduate from a good university. What initially might’ve been a smaller advantage, over time, snowballed into a massive one. The Johns of the world therefore don’t get the same opportunities and are often overlooked. Not because they don’t try, but simply because they have been at a disadvantage from the beginning. This phenomenon is known as the Matthew Effect, named after the Gospel of Matthew. It describes the compounding process where those who have the initial advantage tend to get more success, while those who are disadvantaged have a harder time catching up. As the saying goes: The rich get richer, and the poor get poorer. After all, it’s the rich who get the biggest tax breaks. It’s the best students who get the best teaching and the most attention. And it’s the most physically developed children who get the most coaching and practice. Now does all of this mean that if were born at the start of the year, you’re just destined to succeed in life? And does it mean that if you were born at the end of it, you’re just going to fail?

No, of course not. There are plenty of individuals who despite being disadvantaged and having odds stacked against them, perform better than their peers who were born with many more privileges. If we go back to the birth month chart of those football players, we can still see that there are individuals who became professionals, even though they were born at the end of the year. None of this information is meant to discourage you from trying in any way. Rather it’s an interesting observation of how those early advantages or disadvantages can accumulate, and over time, give someone a statistically higher chance of excelling or falling behind in life. One more classic example of The Matthew Effect would be having wealthier parents, as opposed to poorer ones. Once you finish college and enter the workforce, you’ll probably want to get your own place to live. Now if your parents are poor, you’ll basically have to finance it yourself. And chances are you’ll be spending a big chunk of your paycheck just on rent, student loans and other necessities, leaving you with very little money you can save. But if your parents have some money, they can help you significantly by contributing to your down payment on a home or by paying off your student loans. Allowing you to save a bigger portion of your paycheck, or gaining equity on your new property. That extra money can then be used to invest and make even more of it over your lifetime. Once you get older, and have a family of your own, you can help your children the same way your parents did. While the person with poorer parents might not have much to give. And the Matthew Effect continues on and on. Of course, not everyone utilizes these privileges as well as they could, as many take them for granted and squander them. But we can’t ignore them either. Now armed with this information, you probably can’t do much about your childhood upbringing or life circumstances. However there’s still a concept that you can utilize to make your future better. Let me introduce you to an experiment called “the tube test”. This is where researchers put two mice in the same tube. And mice really don’t like sharing the same territory. So what the mice do, is they start pushing each other back and forth, until one gets pushed out. The one that stays is the winner and the other is the loser. But then the researchers take the winning mouse and give it another competitor. What they find is that the mouse that has recently won, has a much higher probability of winning the second time. And when they take the mouse that lost the first time and put it against a new competitor, that same mouse has a higher chance of losing again. The mice have no differences in strength or size. Those characteristics are all accounted for. But the winning mouse ends up with more confidence and more testosterone because of that first win. And likewise, the losing mouse has less of it. This is the basis of a psychological phenomenon known as “The Winner Effect”. You see, the more you win at life, the more likely you are to keep on winning. When someone overcomes a challenge or wins a competition, they become more likely to repeat that in the future. That is why you see successful entrepreneurs constantly starting up new businesses. And why someone who’s had some success with women, is able to attract even more women. Success feeds on itself and creates a self-fulfilling loop. But as you’ve seen, the winner effect cuts both ways. If you believe that things aren’t going well, if you feel stuck, and are full of self doubt, this makes you more likely to feel even worse and makes you spiral down further. You become just like that mouse that lost the first fight. You’re more likely to lose again. So what if you’re someone who’s stuck in a downward spiral? What can you do to cultivate more positive momentum and get back to winning? The Winner Effect isn’t so much about winning itself, but more about what you perceive as winning. Let me give you an example of what I mean. Let’s say you see an attractive woman on the street and want to get her number. So you build up the courage and go talk to her. Unfortunately, she has a boyfriend and you don’t get the number you wanted. Now this could destroy your confidence and ruin your day. Or you could slightly change the story that just unfolded. Maybe you didn’t get her number, but you got over your fear of walking up to a woman and talking to her. That’s a massive win. The result remains the same, you’re still single, but you’ve looked at the event from a different and a much more beneficial angle. Allowing you to maintain that confidence, motivation and momentum. And your brain doesn’t know the difference between what you perceive as a win, and what is an actual win. As long as you truly believe it. For some of you out there, just getting out of bed before noon can be a big accomplishment and shouldn’t be downplayed. And if you want to get back on the upward spiral, you want to acknowledge it as a win, no matter how small it might seem. After all, what you might consider a failure, might be a huge success to someone else. Sometimes your expectations are just too high and should be adjusted accordingly. You want to stop minimizing all your wins and blowing up your failures out of proportion. That’s the best way to stop yourself from spiraling down further, and to take advantage of the positive feedback loop. As we reflect on the relative age effect, the Matthew Effect, and the Winner Effect, it's clear that our paths in life are shaped by a complex interplay of factors. From the advantages of being born earlier in the year, to the compounding effects of initial perks, these phenomena show us the little intricacies that play a huge part on the journey of life.

But to anyone feeling the weight of these effects, remember that The Winner Effect offers you the power to overcome them. Your story is not predetermined by your birth month or starting circumstances. It's shaped by your resilience, your determination, and your willingness to persevere. Every setback, every defeat, and every moment of doubt can be an opportunity for you to grow and get better. And success is not just about where you start, it's also about how you rise above and continue to write your own story. The way you write it, is up to you. Thank you for watching this video, if you enjoyed it, make sure to hit that like button. It helps out my channel significantly, as it lets the Youtube algorithm know that people like these kinds of videos and it shows my content to a bigger crowd. This allows more people to start their self improvement journey, and makes more of us better than yesterday.