Chart of The Week: Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap

Hello guys, welcome back to chart of the week with class node where we run you through some of the most important charts in crypto. This week we are looking at the short-term holder cost basis hip map and we are going to look at this chart and see what is this chart is telling us about the current accumulation state of the market. Let's get to the chart itself. The cost basis distribution hit map for short-term holder is telling us and showing us how much the recent buyers have been accumulating over the last 155 days and how they have been positioning their capital. Think of this map as a conviction hit map. On the yaxis you will see price levels and at each price level you see a bar with the different color intensity. The brighter and warmer that bar it is that means more supply have been accumulated there. And when more supply get accumulated on a specific price level that means more likely that level act as a support in near-term. to filter out the noise. We can focus we should focus actually on the a very sustained uh cluster of all these uh warm bar bars and uh supply being accumulated over time rather than looking at a daily or couple of days of uh accumulation. So we have to look at a cluster of accumulation before we calling for a um resistance or supply in the uh chart that we're looking at. To give you some context, we have to zoom out. And if you want to compare the current market state with historical uh example, we have to go look at a very significant example back in 2024. In 2024, first half of the year all the way to October, Bitcoin was consolidating in a range between 54,000 and 72,000 roughly. Over more than 6 months, the short-term holder gradually built an accumulation cluster as you can see here. So that accumulation cluster at its peak was um around was almost showing more than 90% of the short-term holder total holder supply was accumulated in that range and that 90% was concentrated in this compressing range and that concentrated supply acted as a foundation for next rally all the way to plus $100,000 for Bitcoin. So this is the template we're going to use for upcoming or current market state accumulation ranges. If we see that kind of accumulation and if we see over time that supply concentration getting denser and denser then we can call for a rally in the market or a bounce back if it's going to be in like in a bare market. Right now if you zoom on last 6 months you could see from early February market have been mostly um developing a cluster between 62,000 all the way to 72,000. This is a structurally an encouraging structure because you will you're looking at a cluster evolving. You could see the short-term holder are accumulating here and the price is still remaining in that u price range. That is a very positive structure. But there is one major distinction. There's an issue here. The cluster that is we are we're looking at is roughly responsible for represent around 30% of the short-term holder supply. Majority of them accumulated back in December 2025 all the way to January 2026. So right now they are sitting on some losses and they are having some unrealized losses. This new cluster still is very thin. So the repositioning is happening but it is not decisive enough for calling another rally coming in. It is constructive but it is not enough. So what is going to be the structure that we should look for in near future or in midterm and that structure is going to change the narrative that we just described. Now first we have to look at whether this short-term holder supply cluster is it getting dense enough to be representing around 80 or 90% of the short-term holder supply. Meaning 80 to 90% of coins moving in last 155 days to that point must have been moving in that range then we can say okay the first condition has been satisfied. The second condition is price breaks above the higher band of that um cluster. So if

you see these two things, we can a combination of these two conditions would meaningfully shift the probability towards a either bare market bounce back. It could be all the way to true market mean which is around 78,000 or it could be in a stronger scenario. It could be an early stage of a broader market recovery. Until these two conditions are met, the cluster, the current cluster should be assessed as a necessary but in uh but and in sufficient building block for any rally or bounce back. So the foundation for a meaningful recovery has been beginning to form since early February. It is thin but it is very constructive. And if you look back and zoom out on the broader market, the ongoing geopolitical uh uncertainty is another factor that we have to consider because we might see some sort of accumulation here that density might show up over time. But if we do not see enough momentum to break above this range, that would be not enough for a very sustainable rally all the way to true market mean or higher prices. So try watching for these two condition in coming weeks and be vigilant because these two conditions uh can evolve over time and it needs a constant monitoring before calling for another bull market. If you found this breakdown helpful and you liked it, please like, comment and subscribe and we will see you next week.