Chart of The Week: Total Supply in Loss (BTC)

Hey guys, welcome back to Chart of the Week with Glass Node, where we run you through some of the most important charts in crypto. Now, today we're going to be taking a closer look at the total supply and loss for Bitcoin. Now, this metric measures the amount of circulating Bitcoin that is currently sitting at an unrealized loss, which means that it last moved at a price higher than where it trades today. Now, first things first, we're going to apply a 7-day simple moving average here to smooth out the day-to-day noise. Now right now we can actually if we zoom in to the most current value we can see that total supply and loss is at a of current value of around um 9 million bitcoin which means that 9 million bitcoin is currently underwater and this matters because it gives us a clean read on the dominance of under pressure lossbearing entities in the market and historically the extremes of this metric have marked major turning points. Now we're going to zoom out for a second and we just we're going to take a look at 2017 now. So if we zoom into 2017, this metric will trend lower towards zero when Bitcoin is in a strong bull market and prices are consistently making new all-time highs like it did consistently through most of 2017 where supply and loss stayed compressed below half a million Bitcoin. And now if we look at 2018 we can see just from before we zoom in for a second we can look at these lower values of total supply and loss in 2017 and we can see the sudden spike in 2018. So if we zoom into 2018 it will basically do the opposite and trend sharply higher when prices fall hard and holders who bought near the top find themselves underwater as happened through 2018 when it climbed all the way to over 10 million Bitcoin. As we can see here, nearly half of all circulating Bitcoin at a loss simultaneously. Now, for another historical example, we're going to look at 2022. And uh I think most of you guys know what happened in November 2022, but this was the FTX collapse. Um and this showed us an even more acute version of this. The metric spike again to about 10, you can see values of over 10 million. um which within days as contagion spread across the industry and this is what genuine systemic fear looks like on this chart. We can use this metric to gauge the depth of holder stress as market cycles change and evolve distinguishing between healthy consolidation and true capitulation. Now if we zoom out again and we look at the most recent value of about 9 million in February 2026 um we can see that um this puts us uncomfortably close to the 2018 and 2022 crisis readings and this is not a healthy midcycle consolidation signal. Now we are so if I zoom out and we I want to look at 2024 as another example and 2024 was um obviously the US election. So we are in a sharp expansionary trend from near zero levels. So, back in mid uh mid November 2024, we can see here um right around the post-election all-time high, this metric collapsed around 50 about 60 thou. Oh, we can see there 56 and 60,000 um Bitcoin um which is essentially the entire market was in profit at that point. So now if we actually just zoom out again and we look at 2024 from a slightly wider view we can see that since then supply and loss has exploded higher climbing from those near zero levels to m to about 9 million bitcoin today and this tells us that a massive cohort of buyers from the late 2024 rally are now deeply underwater. So if we zoom in to the most recent value today, um this if this metric compresses back down significantly, that would signal that the coins currently sitting at a loss have been sold, capitulated into new hands at a lower cost basis. That process of resetting ownership is what historically builds the foundation for the next rally. But at 9 million Bitcoin, we are already in territory that is historically has signaled serious market stress, approaching the levels we saw during the 2018 bare markets and the FTX collapse. What we want to watch for now is whether this metric can begin compressing back towards healthier levels or if it pushes even higher above 10 million Bitcoin, which would put us squaringly in full capitulation territory. Now, that's all for today, guys. Thank you so much for watching Chart of the Week. again. Please leave a like, a comment, and subscribe if you haven't already. And we'll see you next time. Bye for now.