The Lost Battle: $1BN Panic Dump Meets $2BN Mega Buy + Iran Fears HIT

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The Lost Battle: $1BN Panic Dump Meets $2BN Mega Buy + Iran Fears HIT

InvestAnswers 18.05.2026 28 293 просмотров 2 670 лайков

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Introduction

Hello everybody. It's Monday and it's a bumpy day. Yes. And such weird stuff. It's like you've had this three months of war, etc. And now everybody all of a sudden is worried after 3 months. Very strange. We'll break it all down and the impact on Bitcoin and Micro Strategy and the ETFs and a little bit of macro stuff as well. Let's get into it. This one's called The Lost Battle. Sounds ominous. It's not that ominous. We thank you to Sean D and Cyber Sniper. TND if you're there and Kade of course as well. And not financial advice. And a shout out as well to Watch Your Biker. Patreon is the best investment ever. Thank you, Watch Your Biker. Hope you're having fun on the inside. Now

The Week in Review

let's talk about the week in review. Like literally not even a week ago, we were very excited. We are making a 100 day high and Bitcoin price. We had the highest weekly close beginning of January, etc. And then May 11, things kind of started open opening strong. We got up to a critical level near the 200 day moving average 825. And then May 12th, 13th, nothing really happened. little bit of ETF sold off and then some macro noise and then ETF outflows pressure and a big retracement. And that's basically what happened. It was like massive big fall from grace all of a sudden. Pullbacks, profit taking markets were spooked about Iran all of a sudden. Very strange. Uh

Bitcoin Halving

before we get into the rest of the story, I do want to remind people though as well the estimated having date is April 1st, 2028. I saw a post online on X and they were talking about the having date being late latter half of 2027. That's not true. It's out to 2028. So just in case there's any confusion out there, I want to make sure we know we have 1 year 318 days left till the hardest asset in the world gets twice as hard. And that's important. Anyhow, this was the piece that kind of got me a little bit by surprise. It's like all of

Iran Fears Hit At Last

a sudden, Bitcoin tanks to 76K. It actually bounced clean off 76K, which is good. It wiped out all of the May gains, which are above 12% at one stage. And the ETFs started outflowing as well, dropping a billion dollars. And the yields, I mentioned the yields last week, the 10-year yields all around the world are hitting record highs and going really insane. And everybody's getting worried, worried about fiat, etc. very worried about US Iran tensions and it's like every time is nothing really has fundamentally changed except for maybe the long-term yields but the markets are so fickle out there. uh crypto liquidations nearly a billion dollars as well. And now everybody's worried. All the bears are excited all of a sudden. It's like yes, we're going to 40,000 and the prophecy will be fulfilled. But I don't think it's that bad. And I'll explain why. First of all, we're

BTC Break Even so far in May

break even so far in May, up a quarter of 1%, not a lot, but we're up over 12% at one stage, same as April. and things are weak. But sometimes as well in the middle of the month we get a slump just like in the middle of the trading day we get a slump. The middle is always a downward slump in the real world. So use that as a notification. And this one was

BTC Lost The Battle w the 200 DMA

kind of important. I was watching this and kind of excited about it. But I did stress we needed to break above the 200 day moving average which is $82,400 $82,500. And we need to stay there for at least 3 days to put in a solid base. But remember, the 200 day moving average in a bare market proves to be resistance. And yes, we lost the battle. Not the only battle we lost as well this week, but we got we did pierce it, but only briefly and then got hammered down again. Sometimes you got to tap this glass three times before you get right above it. And remember as well in a bull market the 200 day moving average acts as support. So watch this red line very carefully. For now we are beneath it again but things aren't cataclysmic. From the top a week ago to today it's down like 6%. Nothing too hectic.

Adam L: The Next 30 Years

hectic. Also shout out to Adam B. Livingston. He put this little infographic up. I thought it was kind of interesting. uh this is the next 30 years and talks back to kind of having in supply and it assumes gold grows at a 2% annual inflation rate that means over the next 30 years the amount of gold on earth will increase by 81%. a little bit higher than that. And gold's gold bugs always brag about scarcity. While quietly, if you compare this to Bitcoin over the next 30 years, the supply of Bitcoin will only increase by 4. 8%. Well, gold will be 81. 1%. What's that? 17 18 times more uh a supply increase from gold versus Bitcoin. And this will eventually kick in. This hard cap at 21 million, 5 million Bitcoin lost, etc. It's going to be a fun thing to watch. We just don't know when it's actually going to kick in. Either way, it's always fun to look at gold, especially what gold did last year. It was quite extraordinary. Now, speaking of gold

Bitcoin Gold Chart Still Hanging On

again, I did share this chart a couple weeks ago. This is the Bitcoin gold pair chart, and it did turn around. Let me zoom into that level. At the exact price of about 12, call it 12 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. And it moves with great regularity in these big cycles. Bitcoin bare market, gold bull market, bull. With the question is, are we in an outperformance region right now for Bitcoin versus gold? And the answer is the chart has been very consistent this regard. We still got that signal for buy. Watch this space carefully. This could be good. Now other crazy stuff happening

Bitcoin as a sanctions-evasion tool

around the world. I always talked about the pro Bitcoin for the longest time. Wouldn't it be cool if energy was traded in Bitcoin instead of fiat currencies? Well, we didn't quite get there yet. But on the geopolitical front, it's a couple of things that are interesting. And we're seeing Bitcoin as a sanction evasion tool. Iran, speaking of battles, etc., Iran launched a Bitcoin settled insurance platform for Hormuz Straight Shipping. Iran is using Bitcoin to create their own insurance system for the world's most important shipping route so they can keep doing business despite being cut off from regular financial system. It's a bold move, but whether it works depends on if people are using it. If it is going to be used, that will make it very interesting, at least in terms of the demand for Bitcoin and the trading of Bitcoin, too. We'll see. So, it's not quite my pro Bitcoin, but it's something similar. Anyhow, there was also talk of the cost to pass the straight of Hormuz being between one and two Bitcoin. call it 80,000 70,000 to 140 $160,000 for each ship going through which sounds large but actually it's quite small considering the value of what they transport anyway in other news too regarding Bitcoin and Bitcoin

Biggest IPO Ever has a Big BTC Bag

demand Elon Musk just verified that SpaceX which is going to be the biggest IPO in the history of the world they've got a big Bitcoin bag worth about 637 million at 8,300 Bitcoin and they have no intention of selling it as well. SpaceX have a truckload of Bitcoin. Tesla I don't know if Elon Musk personally has some as well, but either way, uh that's not going to be sold. It's going to be held too. And treasuries, not just SpaceX having a Bitcoin treasury, but treasuries, companies that are stacking

Treasuries are Back

Bitcoin as a profession are back. We thought they died. No. Metaplanet stacking, Micro Strategy stacking, a whole bunch of others. Adam Bax firm is stacking, but corporate treasuries are back. This is a company called Capital B. Full disclosure, never heard of them until today. Uh they boosted its Bitcoin reserves with a $15. 2 million purchase and they acquired that as one of a whole bunch of treasury. I think right now they have 3,135 Bitcoin and it's good to

ETF’s Dumped $1BN Last Week - MSTR Buys $2BN

see the treasury is back again. Now, ETFs were ugly last week. Today is a brand new day. I don't know what's going to happen, but this is the big story. Everybody's panicking. It's like, oh, ETFs dumped. They're worried about the war in Iran, everything else. They drop a billion. But remember, over the previous 10 days, they added a billion. So, it's basically they reversed the last 10 days of action. And we had up until last week, we had 10 out of 11 very positive weeks for the Bitcoin ETFs, which is very good. But at the same time, while the ETFs dumped a billion, Michael Sailor with Micro Shari buys 2 billion. And that is the interesting part. We'll break that down in a second. But so far, uh, the ETFs are very, very significant players. A lot of hedge funds use the Bitcoin ETF vehicle as like a mini carry trade tool.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs Hold 8.61% of Supply

And the Bitcoin ETFs hold 8. 6. 1% of the current Bitscoin supply, which is substantial. They don't take into account lost coins, by the way, when they do this. And the total onchain holdings for all the Bitcoin ETFs is 1. 724 million Bitcoin. That's a truckload. So, they are very, very substantial out there. So, when they sell a little bit, like a billion dollars worth, it sometimes rattles the market. Now, at the other side of this is Michael Sailor and Strategy. They bought a

Saylor Strikes Again

massive bag, nearly 25,000 Bitcoin, and they announced it today. They grabbed it last week. Of course, now they have nearly 850,000 Bitcoin and they're heading to a million as quickly as possible. I think inside getting inside Michael Seg's head, I think he wants to get to 1 million Bitcoin by the end of the year. Crazy. And other crazy stats you can see here

Buy Was Mostly STRC

all of the money almost of the two billion dollars approximately only 83 million came from ATMing. The other two billion pretty much came from STRC which is huge. This thing is still printing very nicely indeed. And shout out to CERN Basher. He put this

MSTR Stacking Data

two billion dollars approximately only 83 million came from ATMing. The other two billion pretty much came from STRC which is huge. This thing is still printing very nicely indeed. And shout out to CERN Basher. He put this beautiful chart together. Micro Strategy had their eighth largest purchase ever in history. Very big. But there's more interesting stat stats as well around this. Q2 2026 is already the fourth largest. Shout out to James Van Stratton as well. The uh fourth largest quarter for Bitcoin accumulation. And they've been doing this since September, August, September 2020. Many, many quarters in the bag. And this is their fourth largest ever. If they bag another 8,000 Bitcoin, it will be their second largest ever. And they can easily do that because they're only halfway through the quarter. So again, Michael Sailor is on a mission. If they can continue to mint STRC, they could smoke 8,000 Bitcoin by a factor of three next week. Watch this space carefully. Now, other macro

Yields on the Rise Since 2020

news, too. A lot of people say, "Oh, yields are on the rise. " And there was some comment in one of my videos that uh the reason interest rates are going higher is because of the issue in Iran and the Middle East. That's not true. And shout out to James Lavves as well. He said yes there are macro pressures but you can clearly see that all the yields US, UK, Germany, Japan have been going up since late 2020, early 2021. Nothing to do with the war. It's been a continual increase because people are losing faith in fiat. People understand the central banks just print money like there's no tomorrow. And that's why they demand higher return for that melting ice cube which is fiat. And that's where we are. It's very important when interest rates go up, risk assets go down. And now we're seeing Bitcoin once again being bundled in as a risk asset. And finally finishing with meme dour from supply shocks and Twitter now begin to make the company debtree. So this is an interesting angle because what Michael Sailor is doing is paying off the debt that they have. Interestingly while using STRC as the vehicle to bring in money to buy Bitcoin instead of debt at 0% they want the company to be debtree. Now, one theory behind this is even though it's in meme durious note, if they make it debtree, it could be one of the last obstacles to getting included in the S& P 500. And if that happens, then you get that perpetual bid, which would be awesome. That is the amplifier intelligence story for today, my friends. Big thank you to Buck Horn and of course Shaun D Cipher Sniper K8 and everybody else. Thanks all for coming. Hope you're doing well. I'll see you all tomorrow. Octa time. Bye.

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