AI Rotation: Trading PLTR & MSTR + Fleet Math + Generational Wealth Building! 💰📈
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AI Rotation: Trading PLTR & MSTR + Fleet Math + Generational Wealth Building! 💰📈

InvestAnswers 17.05.2026 43 629 просмотров 2 917 лайков

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Introduction

Hello everybody. It's Sunday. It's Q& A time. And I think the camera's a little too close to my face. But anyway, let's move on and get into the story. Uh this one today is again a lot of questions about how to hack the system to escape the matrix and so much more. and some interesting questions too as to how to take care of your progeny uh what investments do you need etc I'm here with Sasha we're coming to you live as usual big thank you as well to the team and the mods in the chat sha t every else bookhorn roller k8 and I hope I didn't miss anybody cipher sniper I think you take Sundays off which is awesome I'm happy to see that uh let's get into it this one's called AI rotation strategy what to do. There's a lot of TA stuff in here, rotation stuff, and so much more. And of course, not financial advice, just the guy on the internet as usual. And all the questions come from Patreon. Shout out every Patreon, too. Let's get into the first one from the Lorax. I like

Lorax and a few others are asking: if you missed the run-up on AI stocks besides Tesla, how do you replace them and where should you look for entry points without chasing?

this. Uh, and there's a lot of people were caught offside. talk about the importance of being caught off site and how one of the simplest things that I do. The best things in life are simple things is kind of when to deploy and when to harvest. Now this from the Lorax. He said basically if someone had missed the IIA13 train the runup on AI stocks besides Tesla how do you replace them and where should you look for entry points without chasing now I always say don't chase replace and this is a great question and USA girl Kaisad and Constantine all had the same question so this is not a unique situation first of

Most Imp Slide of the day

all real simple brass tax. I'm going to stick myself in the top left corner. This is probably the most important slide of the day. And I've done this since the beginning of time. And I just took the QQQ chart and the red line is the 200 day moving average. It's on the ATR model. And you can see over time going back to 2023, it breaks new alltime times all the time. But when it pierces the 200 day moving average, you wait for those moments that come every year or so and then you deploy. But when markets get really hot, like now, you start to harvest cash. I've been selling coals like a madman. I've been shorting oil, shorting Avis, etc. Trying to raise cash. Uh because it's time to harvest. Uh think of it like um harvesting the grains in the summertime. if you are a farmer, etc. When things get hot and everything is kind of ripe and ready to go, you take some off the table and you start stacking that cash and then you wait. Sometimes you may have to wait 6 months, 3 months, 9 months, a year, 10 months, I don't care what it is. You wait. You wait for that big fat pitch and then you deploy. And this chart shows you deploy September 2023, you harvest July 2024, you deploy April 2025. That was beautiful, by the way. That was a tariff tantrums. Gorgeous $88 Nvidia. Fantastic times. You just got to be ready and let the things fall into your traps. Then you harvest again circa November 2025 and deploy again. No coincidence. Literally March April uh 2026 again and now you're harvesting. Remember, and you can do this really simply. You look at your brokerage account. When your brokerage account hits a new all-time high, start taking stuff off the table. That's the other thing that I also do too. Uh again, best things in life are simple. Remember this. It is magically important. People get caught offside or I say don't chase replace. They buy tops and then they get buttth hurt for like three years because oh my god it's down only for whatever. Don't do that. Wait. Be patient. Wait for the times to deploy. And when things get hot, you harvest. Sorry for harping on this, but it's so important and it's so simple. Okay, back to your question. Now uh these are I believe my disciplined rules

Disciplined Rules For Replacing AI Stocks

for replacing AI stocks and again not necessarily replacing but you still need to be on the AI train. You know, 75% of my portfolio probably is AIcentric stuff right now. But when replacing AI stocks, critical use pure technical setups. I talk about layers. I talk about traps. I set my trading view alerts. Wait for the big mean reversion pullbacks and then you strike. Okay? But make sure the trend is turned before you get back in. Uh focus exclusively on companies demonstrating real value, real traction. be in the top 0. 3% of stocks are going to hammer home a bunch of lessons this week because people still forget and again have strict risk defined entries instead of FOMO. FOMO is painful. I went through a lot of FOMO uh in my life and sometimes you watch things go up but sometimes they come crashing down too. But again, we're looking to build a very strong bag for 2028 to 2030 on all the top 13 IIA AI 13 names. So that's the disciplined rules for when how to do it. And of course, I do believe Tesla is the core

TSLA Remains The Core AI Engine

AI engine. Tesla's weak. Tesla break hearts. Tesla triggers people. But it is the strongest core AI mini AGI play across everything. Think Cybercap which is scaling fast in a stealthy manner. I think they sandbagged on the last earnings call. Optimus chips manufacturing the machine that makes the machine is the product and all other satellite positions are ancillary. Now some of the returns we've made on things like Marvel AB AMD Micron have been bonkers. I did not expect 2026 to be the year it was but I was positioned for it. I thought maybe it would take a bit longer but it was insane and now things are taking a breather as we saw. Let's go back to this previous chart with slide five very important everything mean reverts and this gain in the QQQ is near vertical. Go back in history try find as steep an ascension as that you will not find it. It has been a wild 2 months. I mean, go back to your brokerage accounts, look at February 1st, and then look for look at today. Insane. So, wait for the next big dip. Don't over complicate things. Next question is from Coding Monkey. What

Coding_Monkey wants to know what tools we used to nail the exact top on Avis.

tools did you use to nail the exact top on Avis? Was it mean reversion on the fiveminute trend with the SVP or something else? You nailed it, Coding Monkey. You're a good student. Uh first

Nailing The Exact Top On Avis (CAR)

of all, one of the things I was the first thing I do every morning, I look at the most active stocks, the biggest gainers, the biggest losers, and just to see if anything's kind of an opportunity. I like to bottom fish, but I also like to short things at tops like GameStop and Avis because they're so easy to do. Anyway, uh look at the higher time frame. You got the daily and then you zoom into the 4 hour. You look at extreme overboard conditions. If you don't have mean reversion, you can look at some RSI, etc., zoom into the 5m minute trend reversal as well. You're dead right on that. And also check the candlestick as well for retail buyer exhaustion. You can see a lot as to how the candlestick during the day operates. Let's look at the chart as

The Power Of IA Trend Tight on 5 Minute

well. This is the fiveinut chart on the IIA trend, but it's on tight. not on very tight, on tight. And then you got loose and very loose. They're the kind of the four different settings. I like to use tight most of the time. You got your back test here as well. Now, if you look at what happened and going back to the date, make sure I read the exact right date. I think it was the 22nd of last month. It went up and up and up. You'll see I've got I do have the SVP there as well, but that was on such a rampage. All the blue all the way up up up up up buying buying and then big [clears throat] spike like a last gasp of air and then crashed down and then the selling began. The selling is on the SGP here, but also on the trend straight down from what was it? 820 or something ridiculous. 620, 720, 740 all the way down. Free falling, free falling and uh exited that position. But I mean, the call option premium for selling an out the money call was through the roof. You did need a lot of margin to put up for like a bunch of calls. I can't remember what it was. If you're selling 10 contracts, you needed like half a million dollars in margin or something. But anyway, it was very quick, easy money again to harvest cash. And that is after 4 days of a rampage. And I watched this every single day. I was waiting for this extra GameStop moment. and be ready for the next time, too. Because if you have the margin and you have the time, you can wait these pumps out and then you can show the Wall Street Bets team exactly how to do it. But you play the other side of them. And I know there was a hedge fund or two involved here as well. So that's exactly how Coding Monkey, thank you for your question. And [clears throat] by the way, the fiveminute charts went all the way down. So again, zoom out to the daily, 4 hour, 1 hour, 15 minute, 5 minute, and then you'll see the trend turn. Boom. User two. Uh, interesting

User2 moved cash into Palantir at the 130 support level and wants to know if PLTR or MSTR will be the faster horse before eventually rotating back into Tesla.

question. I recently sold my micro strategy in a tax-free ISA. I think ISAs are in the UK. Drop a comment if that is the case. Uh, oops, didn't mean to click on that. And move the cash into Palunteer. So basically, you're rotating Micro Strategy into Palunteer. when I saw the double bottom on the mean inversion on the daily with a strong 130 support. What do you think will be the faster horse over the next month? My plan is to rotate into Tesla, which looks like it's running out of steam for now. Very good question. So, what I decided to do is like uh interesting. I'm going to see if I can rotate pair trade micro strategy and palanteer just those two alone uh to see what we can do. And

PLTR Vs MSTR: Identifying Faster Horses

first of all, the palent here. Let's talk about this one for a second. It is another of those very hated names out there, but it does serve as an excellent bridge trade right now, especially on the short-term mean version and the AI momentum. And it's deeply oversold. If you had to buy one name, it would have been, you know, Tesla at the 330, 340, 350 level or Palanteer sub130. That's it. Now, Micro Strategy on the other hand went from 170 117 to 190. So, that had a bit of a run. I was taking breather, too, but it's a very high beta Bitcoin levered asset and it can correct violently. Actually, both can to some extent. But what I wanted to do was check out exactly if they are

MSTR vs PLTR Correlation

correlated or not. I like things that are inverse correlated. Now if you look at this chart you can see the historical correlation and divergence between micro strategy and pounder over time. When it's close to the top of the chart the top band the blue of one that means they move together. When it's in the other side of the bottom they move separately. I'll turn off my camera so you can see all of it. They're not inversely correlated but they're loosely not correlated which is good enough to rotate. It's very difficult to rotate between things that basically are correlated as well. So, uh let's look at another thing. I plugged and this is the using the rotation model. I plugged just Micro Strategy and

PLTR Vs MSTR

Palunteer into the rotation model. And you can turn off you can put in five assets. You can turn off asset five and asset four. And for giggles, I put in one share of MSTX as acid 3 and I said it retain all of it. So that even though MSTX is in there, it doesn't impact the model. And what is interesting is again it's on the 4hour chart since January 1st, 2026, Palunteer versus Micro Strategy. Can you pair trade these things? And the answer is surprisingly yes, you can. These are the settings.

PLTR Vs MSTR - Rotation Model Settings

Again, you use you anchor on Micro Strategy. The date actually is Christmas Day 2025. So call it 3 days before January 1st and Palanteer is your other asset. And then you rotate and sell. You retain 1%, you sell 99%, you can also retain zero and sell 100 or you can do 50/50 depending on your preference. Watch the back test as you do this. So just over the space since the beginning of the year, this is four months of

PLTR Vs MSTR - in Rotation Model on the 4 Hour

results. On the 4hour chart, if you had 34K, I think was 100 shares of each. When you begin, your final value of holding would have been down, but rotating would have been up. Interesting. So you can actually make money rotating these things. And in fact, it'll break down all the different trades for you at the top, what you sell or what you buy and when you do it. Again, when one deviates from the mean, you can rotate back to the other. And because they are not correlated, it works out pretty well. In fact, it was surprisingly good for a short window of time. Um, the other thing as well, rotation into Tesla consolidation. I didn't plug in Tesla as a third asset, but you could do that very easily and you can see the results, too. Again, it will identify

Strategic Rotation Into TSLA Consolidation

the optimal time to be able to do this and rotate in. I do believe Tesla has a very bright future, too. So, thank you for the question, and yeah, tax-free trading is fun, and it sounds like you know what you're doing, so keep on at it. Next question is from Tarzan Trades.

Tarzan Trades is looking at building a Tesla fleet as a side hustle in Orange County, but is concerned about the math and potential oversaturation once everyone sees the big picture.

Love your channel and your data driven approach. I often recommend you to my friends who don't have time to look at charts all day like I do. Congratulations. Anyway, my question is regards to building a Tesla fleet. I'm interested in possibly pursuing this as a side hustle when the time is right. The math makes all makes sense to me, but my concern is oversaturation. Perhaps not immediately, but once all the normies start to see the big picture, do you think oversaturation could be an issue given people's personal fleets combined with Tesla's own fleet? Will this be essentially be my competition and there'd be very little room for differentiation? I'm in Orange County for reference. I like this question. No, you're right. So early on uh fleet economics and when

Tesla Fleet Side Hustle Economics and Evaluating Fleet Operations Vs Core Stock

you're a first mover advantage um you will get incredible high utilization but when the normies do come there could be that oversaturation risk. You're dead right there. We're not too sure but I do know Tesla will be very good at optimizing the users experience to be able to get into surge pricing and stuff like that. But if there are a ton of owner operators, it could create a glut which could put pricing pressure or utilization pressure on the actual assets. Now the per vehicle economics again could easily compress if supply outpaces demand. Very important. We'll get to the model in a second for OC. Now if you are doing this, this is important. You need to be prepared. You should only treat the fleet as a side hustle if you have an operational edge. Yeah, normies may jump in, but they may not have parking. charging facilities or the ability to clean and service the vehicles. But if you have that edge, imagine you have a place with a sixcar garage with some power hookups and some soap and water and things like that, then you are in good shape. Uh but if you don't have that, it might be hard. And also bear in mind things like maintenance and charging and insurance, they could actually impact the calculus as well. And sometimes too, depending on where we are in the stage of cycle, holding Tesla stock outright may be better than buying the cars. But if you can finance the cars, it could be a no-brainer. Anyway, and Elon did say we'd be able to buy Cyber Caps before the end of the year for $30,000. And there's a lot of them running around right now. Anyhow, I'm going to turn off my camera again.

You will need 7 cars in OC to make $10K Net a Mth

What we what I did calculate, too, is in the OC, I estimated a couple of things. I averaged a $1. 50 per mile that you could charge because OC is a high net worth area, Orange County, California. I estimate you need at least seven cars to make at least $10,000 a month net. Remember this is also heavy work. So the utilization uh about 30% price for mile a buck 50. If you can get your utilization up to 50% you can get away with five cars or less. Uh and your fleet after 35% personal tax will be about 130,000. All these numbers are after tax by the way. And the average car will make about 57,000 drive 57,000 miles a year which is quite a lot. So can you do it? Absolutely yes. Uh but watch what the normies are doing and make sure you have that operational edge. Think probably the most important thing that people aren't even considering is parking and how close you are to feeders like things like airports, uh universities, hospitals, restaurants, nightife. They're going to be critically important as well. So, I hope that helps. Thank you for the question. Next question is from farm grown.

Farm_grown asks about ServiceNow, noting it's sitting at ATR Level 3 with a buy signal, but wonders why it isn't in our IA13 list despite being a key enterprise AI deployment layer.

grown. Interesting. Service Now, a victim of the SAS apocalypse. Let me make sure I'm up to date and stuff and I'll do questions at the end of course as well. Thank you. Book a roller French dreamer signal 103 and psychic experience. All my usual friends. So, this one is regarding service. Now, a farm grown ass about it. I won't read all the detail. It's now sitting at ATR level 3 with a buy signal, but wonders why it isn't in our RA13 list despite being a key enterprise AI deployment layer. So, Service Now, it depends. A lot of companies kind of pivoted, but remember, I spent most of early 2025 finding the best AI stocks, okay? But you can't fit everybody in there. And things have to be absolutely perfect across the board for these things to qualify. They need to have a moat. great financials, lots of cash, low debt, huge profit margins, all that good stuff. They need to be direct recipients of the capex spend, which is heading to a trillion this year, next year. That they are the players that you want. Service Now is much more of a software company and of course taken down by the SAS apocalypse. Let's look at the financials first. It's the first thing I ever do

Service Now Financials

whenever I look at an asset. Go check this out. It looks really good. I look at the financials. Okay? And you can read a lot from this in a second. Blue revenue growing good. Yellow which is their uh operating cash the Ibit sorry at the top. Okay. Flattened off a little bit. Net income flat. Has not moved since March 2024. That's not good. Uh debt manageable. Cash fluctuating. That's okay. Passover that. Then we're getting down to the bottom and focus your eyes on the pink. The pink does stink right here. This is not good. Their stockbased compensation is awful. They make $1. 7 billion a year and then they line their pockets to the tune of two billion every year. So all the profit and more they give back to the executives. I hate this. I hate egregious stockbased compensation. That for me will nick it out of the bag. It was never in under consideration for my I13 anyway, but uh didn't like it. Let's look at the chart now. It is actually on

$NOW NOW Level 2 on ATR

level two on the ATR, not level three. So, I don't know what's wrong with your ATR. And it's way off the all-time high. Let me try to zoom in to see what the alltime high was here. Uh 240, 240ish, and then it fell down to level five about 105. No, 160. Level three 150. Level four 126. No, level three 126 and level two is 95 bucks. So, we're down near the trend. The yellow is still down, way off the 200 day moving average of 160. Overall, be careful here. It hasn't turned around yet. You may want to wait for this puppy to turn around before you jump in. But remember, this is also a weekly chart. On the daily, it probably already did turn around. So, that's the chart. So riskreward basically it's back at 2020 levels. There you go. So and in 2020 there was no talk of it being an AI play at all because AI didn't exist in 2020 and the stock price is the where it was in 2020. So uh it has been dead money or a widowmaker since then. So I'd be careful. Uh however there's some good

ServiceNow (NOW) Enterprise Workflow Moat

news. I'll throw you a couple of bones. Uh this is Service Now and yes they do hold a durable mode in enterprise workflow automation. Can that be done by AI in the future? We'll see. They do have real enterprise traction. Yensen Wong likes them. Uh and they have a big advantage in helping companies manage their and automate their work. And they did pivot to AI and smart automated tools because that's where the world is heading and they do have repeatable revenue as we saw too. I just hate the stockbased compensation is just nasty as well. Um would it be a

Strategic Fit Within Broader AI Basket

strategic fit for IIA13? The answer is no. There are better names out there. Uh could it be a strong diversifier and a steady compounder? Maybe. Would I buy it? Nope. There are simply better names out there. So that's your service. Now, um, again, I obsess about being in the top 0. 3% of stocks. This might be in the top 2% or 3% of stocks, but it's not good enough for me. Okay? Got to be very picky. Spend a huge amount of time excising the true winners out there. Next question for Joe Daddy. And this

JoeDaddy has four kids and wants to know how the "Retire on Bag" quantities change if he wants to leave them with the resources to have a fighting chance and a leg up in the future.

one, I debated answering this, but I decided, well, hey, but I don't want this to put people off having babies. Okay? I want to get that clear out of the bag. Yes, babies can be expensive. But uh Joe Daddy has four kids. Well, he's got three kids under 10 and one on the way. And he wants to know how the retire on bag quantities change if he wants to leave them with the resources to have a fighting chance and a leg up in the future. Okay. Um let's dig into this one. First of all, I assumed a couple of things.

Legacy Carve-Out For Future Generations

You are in the US and your kids too. And the original vision for the retire model is to get to a million dollars by 2032. So whatever the bag is, whether it's a Bitcoin bag or a Tesla bag or Salana bag, the amount of tokens at a given time is how many based on my sandbagged price prediction models, how many you need to get to approximately a million dollars by 2032. And again, it's sandbagged. Could all these assets go to zero? Yes, be prepared for that. But for four kids, the math is very different. Your retirement bag will not get your four kids to where you want to be. You need to think about upping the size of bags and investing more. You need to increase the overall target bag size by at least 1 and a half to 2 million plus by 2032. And this allows you give you that legacy leg up in the 250k to 600k range for education, etc. Now, we'll get into some crazy numbers in a second, but I do believe Tesla, you

Position Sizing Shift & Philosophy

know, if you have to get yourself out of this situation or at least have a way of providing your kids a leg up in the future. I cannot find a better riskreward than Tesla right now. Even though it's still very cheap with the type of stuff they have going on, there is no other company like it on the planet. I don't care if you have EDS. I don't care. I spend all my time looking for winning companies and I position myself for them. So, this is where we are now. I'm going to throw off my

Project Annual Spend for Kids thru 21 years

camera again. What I did was I assumed I guess the age of your kids. I assumed one was like nine, six or seven, and then three or four. And then the new baby is coming. And the new baby will be off payroll in 2044. uh maybe even longer if you go to 21 years of age supporting them. But just to give you an idea of how much each child will cost and how it stacks up. So if you're in the year 2037 and I index the cost per child uh about 3 and a half% per year. So you'll be spending in 2037 close to $235,000 for those four kids. And then it goes down because child one will be off of payroll approximately 2038. Uh and then child two will be off of payroll in approximately 2040. That's the way to read this. So you need to think about how much you need for the kids to get you and your family through uh what's coming. Now the table of this I assume the national average cost to support you know four kids is about 73,315 bucks a year. If you are in the San Francisco Bay area it's about 162,923 bucks. It's a lot more expensive here than maybe where you are. I'm not sure. But I put in both so you'd see now by 2033

2 Scenarios - Avg USA vs Bay Area

2033 those four kids will cost you not 73 but 93k. So it goes up about 10k every 7 years or so. Bay Area 162k will go to 207k. So park those numbers in the back of your head. And then I thought this is kind of cool. I never thought of the retire model having this type of purpose but it does which is nice. I plugged in how much Tesla shares you need at a kagger of 35% to cover the cost of the four kids starting with the national average of 73K in 2026. That's how much you need to pull from your bag or in the Bay Area 162K. And I asked myself, how many sh Tesla shares do you need to support this family? So it's a is a it was a great uh use for the actual model. So if you are not in the Bay Area and you got these four kids and you need to support them just all of their expenses and have something left over to leave to them in time after they're they flee the nest, you need 740 Tesla shares to get there. If you are in the Bay Area, you need a lot more. 1650 Tesla shares. Again, it's assuming Tesla price now 422 Kagger of 35% per year and that's how much it will cost. So if you do have 1650 shares and you live in the Bay Area, you can support four kids no problem just on that bag alone. If you're somewhere in the nation, you need 740 Tesla shares to support all those kids for the next 21 years and still have both of them still leave money left over as well. So, uh, that would be, uh, the interesting view of all of this, too. Again, I thought it was a fun use case. So, I hope that helps. If you want, what you could do as well is have different bags for different purposes. You could have your Tesla as your income bag to provide food, clothing, education, transport, sports, all that stuff for the four kids. and you could have say a bitcoin bag just to leave them something you know one bitcoin each down the line. So hope that helps. Next question is from Chad one. Hey James, I have Tesla June 26 180 leaps coming up on expiration that are obviously deep in profit. Yes, everybody in Patreon community has a bunch of Tesla 140s, 150s, 160s, 180s, 175s, tons of leaps. And leaps are very, very powerful tools. I love leaps. If I if there were no leaps, I wouldn't be where I am in life. Okay, so very important. Now they're coming up an expiration deeply in profit. Is it best to roll, sell or exercise into shares since the goal is a multi-year hold? I'm glad you said that last part because that is very important. Multi-year hold. My first leaps I purchased on Tesla in 2017, decade ago. I have never sold any LEAP. I have not sold apart from rotation testing in a profit free account Tesla shares in a taxable account. And I've never sold a tele share because much of my core basis is very low. And uh I like you said holding on building a long-term bag. Also when you convert a leap there's no taxes. So this is all taxree stuff too which is great. Now since the goal is that long-term Tesla ownership and that's been my goal since 2017 10 years now. Every leap converted, no tax drag, never sold, and you get mad compounding. That is the beauty. If you roll your options, you're selling the expiring contract, you'll incur taxes, and that will eat away at your gains. So considering the price is so cheap, if you have a margin account, you can buy the stock, Tesla stock, basically putting 90 bucks down per share and you get a $450 give or take asset. That's a no-brainer. That becomes your mattress, and then you use that to sell calls and sell puts against. That's been my game for the longest time. Uh also, uh don't transition. Again, exercising is rarely optimal, but so just hold on, convert them to stock, don't sell, don't incur taxes, and you get optimal capital efficiency for a multi-year hold as well. Hope that helps, Chad One. Uh, this week as well, before I answer some questions live, we donated to Bowie. I love David Bowie, too, by the way. This week, we donated to the Wild Spirit Wolf Sanctuary to support the care of animals like Bowie. a New Guinea singing dog. Beautiful little husky. And uh I hope you all amplified your intelligence today. I'm going to go and do some live questions if there are any. I don't even know. And again, big thank you to everybody for coming. All right. Uh let me pull up the questions. They're not in yet. I will go find one. Doc turn. My children's custodial brokerage accounts have Micro Strategy, Tesla, Nvidia. I want to add a couple of i13. Which two would you recommend for a 3 to 5 year old? Well, I wouldn't buy any of them now, Doc Intern. Thank you for your great question. I love the way you're looking out for your kids. Micro Strategy is risky. Tesla and Nvidia rock solid. Nvidia is just rock solid play and so is Tesla. Micro Strategy is a great way of getting Bitcoin exposure in a leverage way with SAT accretion. Um, you know, my four [snorts] top favorite I-13s are AMD, ALAB, Marvel, Micron, so but they're all very expensive right now. Wait for a gray swan or a black swan. Uh, have the cash ready and then they will do very well over the next 3 to 5 years. Micron could be risky. If the world finds out a way of making memory better, cheaper, faster, that could be a problem. But I do believe there'll be infinite demand for memory. So Micron should be fine. And Micron is also very cheap right now on a valuation basis. Cheers to Piper and Canada. And thank you for superstience. You're truly amazing too. And I hope everybody enjoyed the show. Thank you all for coming. Happy weekend. And I'll see you all tomorrow. Bye-bye. — [bell]

I have TSLA June 26 $180 Leaps coming up on expiration that are obviously deeply in profit. I am guessing there are many in this community with similar positions and situation. I’m not concerned about tax implication, most interested how you choose to deal with expiring TSLA specific expiring leaps since the goal is to be in TSLA for years. Do you roll or sell or exercise into shares. Seems like the math on exercising into shares rarely is most beneficial?

are the players that you want. Service Now is much more of a software company and of course taken down by the SAS apocalypse. Let's look at the financials first. It's the first thing I ever do whenever I look at an asset. Go check this out. It looks really good. I look at the financials. Okay? And you can read a lot from this in a second. Blue revenue growing good. Yellow which is their uh operating cash the Ibit sorry at the top. Okay. Flattened off a little bit. Net income flat. Has not moved since March 2024. That's not good. Uh debt manageable. Cash fluctuating. That's okay. Passover that. Then we're getting down to the bottom and focus your eyes on the pink. The pink does stink right here. This is not good. Their stockbased compensation is awful. They make $1. 7 billion a year and then they line their pockets to the tune of two billion every year. So all the profit and more they give back to the executives. I hate this. I hate egregious stockbased compensation. That for me will nick it out of the bag. It was never in under consideration for my I13 anyway, but uh didn't like it. Let's look at the chart now. It is actually on level two on the ATR, not level three. So, I don't know what's wrong with your ATR. And it's way off the all-time high. Let me try to zoom in to see what the alltime high was here. Uh 240, 240ish, and then it fell down to level five about 105. No, 160. Level three 150. Level four 126. No, level three 126 and level two is 95 bucks. So, we're down near the trend. The yellow is still down, way off the 200 day moving average of 160. Overall, be careful here. It hasn't turned around yet. You may want to wait for this puppy to turn around before you jump in. But remember, this is also a weekly chart. On the daily, it probably already did turn around. So, that's the chart. So riskreward basically it's back at 2020 levels. There you go. So and in 2020 there was no talk of it being an AI play at all because AI didn't exist in 2020 and the stock price is the where it was in 2020. So uh it has been dead money or a widowmaker since then. So I'd be careful. Uh however there's some good news. I'll throw you a couple of bones. Uh this is Service Now and yes they do hold a durable mode in enterprise workflow automation. Can that be done by AI in the future? We'll see. They do have real enterprise traction. Yensen Wong likes them. Uh and they have a big advantage in helping companies manage their and automate their work. And they did pivot to AI and smart automated tools because that's where the world is heading and they do have repeatable revenue as we saw too. I just hate the stockbased compensation is just nasty as well. Um would it be a strategic fit for IIA13? The answer is no. There are better names out there. Uh could it be a strong diversifier and a steady compounder? Maybe. Would I buy it? Nope. There are simply better names out there. So that's your service. Now, um, again, I obsess about being in the top 0. 3% of stocks. This might be in the top 2% or 3% of stocks, but it's not good enough for me. Okay? Got to be very picky. Spend a huge amount of time excising the true winners out there. Next question for Joe Daddy. And this one, I debated answering this, but I decided, well, hey, but I don't want this to put people off having babies. Okay? I want to get that clear out of the bag. Yes, babies can be expensive. But uh Joe Daddy has four kids. Well, he's got three kids under 10 and one on the way. And he wants to know how the retire on bag quantities change if he wants to leave them with the resources to have a fighting chance and a leg up in the future. Okay. Um let's dig into this one. First of all, I assumed a couple of things. You are in the US and your kids too. And the original vision for the retire model is to get to a million dollars by 2032. So whatever the bag is, whether it's a Bitcoin bag or a Tesla bag or Salana bag, the amount of tokens at a given time is how many based on my sandbagged price prediction models, how many you need to get to approximately a million dollars by 2032. And again, it's sandbagged. Could all these assets go to zero? Yes, be prepared for that. But for four kids, the math is very different. Your retirement bag will not get your four kids to where you want to be. You need to think about upping the size of bags and investing more. You need to increase the overall target bag size by at least 1 and a half to 2 million plus by 2032. And this allows you give you that legacy leg up in the 250k to 600k range for education, etc. Now, we'll get into some crazy numbers in a second, but I do believe Tesla, you know, if you have to get yourself out of this situation or at least have a way of providing your kids a leg up in the future. I cannot find a better riskreward than Tesla right now. Even though it's still very cheap with the type of stuff they have going on, there is no other company like it on the planet. I don't care if you have EDS. I don't care. I spend all my time looking for winning companies and I position myself for them. So, this is where we are now. I'm going to throw off my camera again. What I did was I assumed I guess the age of your kids. I assumed one was like nine, six or seven, and then three or four. And then the new baby is coming. And the new baby will be off payroll in 2044. uh maybe even longer if you go to 21 years of age supporting them. But just to give you an idea of how much each child will cost and how it stacks up. So if you're in the year 2037 and I index the cost per child uh about 3 and a half% per year. So you'll be spending in 2037 close to $235,000 for those four kids. And then it goes down because child one will be off of payroll approximately 2038. Uh and then child two will be off of payroll in approximately 2040. That's the way to read this. So you need to think about how much you need for the kids to get you and your family through uh what's coming. Now the table of this I assume the national average cost to support you know four kids is about 73,315 bucks a year. If you are in the San Francisco Bay area it's about 162,923 bucks. It's a lot more expensive here than maybe where you are. I'm not sure. But I put in both so you'd see now by 2033 those four kids will cost you not 73 but 93k. So it goes up about 10k every 7 years or so. Bay Area 162k will go to 207k. So park those numbers in the back of your head. And then I thought this is kind of cool. I never thought of the retire model having this type of purpose but it does which is nice. I plugged in how much Tesla shares you need at a kagger of 35% to cover the cost of the four kids starting with the national average of 73K in 2026. That's how much you need to pull from your bag or in the Bay Area 162K. And I asked myself, how many sh Tesla shares do you need to support this family? So it's a is a it was a great uh use for the actual model. So if you are not in the Bay Area and you got these four kids and you need to support them just all of their expenses and have something left over to leave to them in time after they're they flee the nest, you need 740 Tesla shares to get there. If you are in the Bay Area, you need a lot more. 1650 Tesla shares. Again, it's assuming Tesla price now 422 Kagger of 35% per year and that's how much it will cost. So if you do have 1650 shares and you live in the Bay Area, you can support four kids no problem just on that bag alone. If you're somewhere in the nation, you need 740 Tesla shares to support all those kids for the next 21 years and still have both of them still leave money left over as well. So, uh, that would be, uh, the interesting view of all of this, too. Again, I thought it was a fun use case. So, I hope that helps. If you want, what you could do as well is have different bags for different purposes. You could have your Tesla as your income bag to provide food, clothing, education, transport, sports, all that stuff for the four kids. and you could have say a bitcoin bag just to leave them something you know one bitcoin each down the line. So hope that helps. Next question is from Chad one. Hey James, I have Tesla June 26 180 leaps coming up on expiration that are obviously deep in profit. Yes, everybody in Patreon community has a bunch of Tesla 140s, 150s, 160s, 180s, 175s, tons of leaps. And leaps are very, very powerful tools. I love leaps. If I if there were no leaps, I wouldn't be where I am in life. Okay, so very important. Now they're coming up an expiration deeply in profit. Is it best to roll, sell or exercise into shares since the goal is a multi-year hold? I'm glad you said that last part because that is very important. Multi-year hold. My first leaps I purchased on Tesla in 2017, decade ago. I have never sold any LEAP. I have not sold apart from rotation testing in a profit free account Tesla shares in a taxable account. And I've never sold a tele share because much of my core basis is very low. And uh I like you said holding on building a long-term bag. Also when you convert a leap there's no taxes. So this is all taxree stuff too which is great. Now since the goal is that long-term Tesla

Managing Deeply In-The-Money LEAPs

ownership and that's been my goal since 2017 10 years now. Every leap converted, no tax drag, never sold, and you get mad compounding. That is the beauty. If you roll your options, you're selling the expiring contract, you'll incur taxes, and that will eat away at your gains. So considering the price is so cheap, if you have a margin account, you can buy the stock, Tesla stock, basically putting 90 bucks down per share and you get a $450 give or take asset. That's a no-brainer. That becomes your mattress, and then you use that to sell calls and sell puts against. That's been my game for the longest time. Uh also

Transitioning From Options To Shares

uh don't transition. Again, exercising is rarely optimal, but so just hold on, convert them to stock, don't sell, don't incur taxes, and you get optimal capital efficiency for a multi-year hold as well. Hope that helps, Chad One. Uh, this week as well, before I answer some questions live, we

Helping Animals

donated to Bowie. I love David Bowie, too, by the way. This week, we donated to the Wild Spirit Wolf Sanctuary to support the care of animals like Bowie. a New Guinea singing dog. Beautiful little husky. And uh I hope you all amplified your intelligence today. I'm going to go and do some live questions if there are any. I don't even know. And again, big thank you to everybody for coming. All right. Uh let me pull up the questions. They're not in yet. I will go find one. Doc turn. My children's custodial brokerage accounts have Micro Strategy, Tesla, Nvidia. I want to add a couple of i13. Which two would you recommend for a 3 to 5 year old? Well, I wouldn't buy any of them now, Doc Intern. Thank you for your great question. I love the way you're looking out for your kids. Micro Strategy is risky. Tesla and Nvidia rock solid. Nvidia is just rock solid play and so is Tesla. Micro Strategy is a great way of getting Bitcoin exposure in a leverage way with SAT accretion. Um, you know, my four [snorts] top favorite I-13s are AMD, ALAB, Marvel, Micron, so but they're all very expensive right now. Wait for a gray swan or a black swan. Uh, have the cash ready and then they will do very well over the next 3 to 5 years. Micron could be risky. If the world finds out a way of making memory better, cheaper, faster, that could be a problem. But I do believe there'll be infinite demand for memory. So Micron should be fine. And Micron is also very cheap right now on a valuation basis. Cheers to Piper and Canada. And thank you for superstience. You're truly amazing too. And I hope everybody enjoyed the show. Thank you all for coming. Happy weekend. And I'll see you all tomorrow. Bye-bye. — [bell]

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