GDP and Core PCE Hit Thursday as Oil Threatens Inflation

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GDP and Core PCE Hit Thursday as Oil Threatens Inflation

Trading Academy 24.05.2026 562 просмотров 30 лайков

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#StockMarket #Inflation #CorePCE FREE Trading Workshop 👉 https://tinyurl.com/bducncun This shortened Memorial Day trading week may be light on earnings, but the economic calendar is packed with market-moving data. Merlin breaks down Thursday’s GDP release, with expectations rising from the previous 0.7% reading to 2.1%, and explains why stronger growth could matter while the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell sit near all-time highs. The bigger inflation watch comes from Core PCE, also due Thursday at 8:30 AM Eastern. Markets expect another 0.3% reading, but Merlin explains why crude oil near $96 per barrel could push inflation higher and keep traders focused on transportation, shipping, plastic materials, and fuel costs. Timestamps ● 00:00 - Intro and Memorial Day Week ● 00:46 - 239 Companies Report During a Shortened Week ● 00:58 - AutoZone and Zscaler Report Tuesday ● 01:02 - Salesforce, Abercrombie, Marvell, Dick’s, Agilent, and Synopsys ● 01:09 - Costco, NetApp, Best Buy, Kohl’s, and Dollar Tree ● 01:23 - Growth, Inflation, and Jobs Take the Spotlight ● 01:35 - GDP Expectations Rise From 0.7% to 2.1% ● 02:16 - Markets Sit Near All-Time Highs Ahead of GDP ● 02:33 - Thursday 8:30 AM GDP Release and Premarket Volatility ● 02:55 - Core PCE Lands Thursday at 8:30 AM Eastern ● 03:17 - Why 0.3% Core PCE Equals 3.6% Annualized Inflation ● 03:31 - Crude Oil Near $96 Could Push Inflation Higher ● 04:04 - Moderate Earnings, Memorial Day, Growth, and Inflation ● 04:13 - Watching the Fed’s Communication Shift ● 04:47 - Wrap-Up Continue Learning with Trading Academy: ● 🎓 Free Intro Class: https://www.tradingacademy.com/education/ ● 📍 Find Trading Academy Near You: https://www.tradingacademy.com/locations.aspx ● 💡 More Trading Resources: https://www.tradingacademy.com #StockMarket #Trading #CorePCE #GDP #Inflation #Oil #MarketRally #SP500 #Nasdaq #Volatility #EarningsSeason #InterestRates #TradingAcademy #MondayMorningMustKnows #MerlinRothfeld 💬 Question for Viewers: Which Thursday report are you watching more closely this week, GDP or Core PCE?

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Intro and Memorial Day Week

Hello everybody and welcome to Money Morning Must Knows. My name is Merlin Rothfeld and let's talk about the upcoming trading week. Now, as you know, it's a shorter week. Why? Because Monday is Memorial Day, a day where most Americans take the time off and go and celebrate and party and have barbecues and just enjoy life, as you should. But remember, your freedom to enjoy that life came at a cost and there are millions of Americans who sacrificed and paid the ultimate price to fight for our freedoms and die in the line of battle. So, it's one of those days where you when you are out celebrating and you are having a good time and enjoying your life and your freedom, remember those, even if you didn't even know them, give a little cheers to those that have paid the ultimate price for us to have those freedoms and live in one of the greatest countries on the planet. Memorial Day on

239 Companies Report During a Shortened Week

Monday. Moving on to Tuesday, we have earnings to speak of, nothing compared to what we've had the last few weeks, but let's be honest, earnings have been really, really good. We have 239 companies reporting this week, nothing on Monday, of course, cuz we are closed.

AutoZone and Zscaler Report Tuesday

Moving on to Tuesday, we've got AutoZone and Zscaler.

Salesforce, Abercrombie, Marvell, Dick’s, Agilent, and Synopsys

Wednesday brings us Salesforce, Abercrombie & Fitch, Marvell Technologies, Dick's Sporting Goods, Agilent and Synopsys. Thursday, another

Costco, NetApp, Best Buy, Kohl’s, and Dollar Tree

big list here. You've got Costco, Network Appliances, Best Buy, Kohl's and Dollar Tree. A lot of retailers there and that is pretty much it. There's nothing really happening on Friday that's noteworthy on the earnings calendar front. So, really a lot of retailers here.

Growth, Inflation, and Jobs Take the Spotlight

Now, let's shift our focus back to the important stuff. Grand economic data, growth, inflation, jobs, all that is so relevant right now and we have a new chairman of the Fed, which could change things a little bit as far as information disclosure. But we'll dive

GDP Expectations Rise From 0.7% to 2.1%

right into growth. We want to see economic growth in the United States. You want to see GDP rising. There's a lot of different assumptions about average should be, but if we're between 2% and 3%, a lot of people look at that as being a very good thing. Well, what do the previous numbers look like? Hmm, they weren't that great. You can see here on your screen, we had 0. 7 was the previous reading that we had. Granted, we had wild fluctuations in 2020, but we've kind of normalized here. Right now, the expectations are that we're not going to come out at 0. 7. We're 2. 1% for the quarter. So, that is a good sign. We're seeing an expectations of increased productivity and gross domestic product for the United States, which means growth, which is usually a good sign for the markets.

Markets Sit Near All-Time Highs Ahead of GDP

Well, conveniently, markets are at all-time highs as well. Dow, S& P, Nasdaq, Russell, all just looking off the left-hand side of that chart going, "Hey, is there any supply back there? Cuz I don't see anything to stop this thing from rolling. " This might be a big factor in that continued success of the equity markets is growth. That is coming out on Thursday at 8:30

Thursday 8:30 AM GDP Release and Premarket Volatility

a. m. Eastern time. So, about 1 hour before the markets open, this should be there, and that will give us a nice little pop for the markets. Now, I say pop, could be up, could be down, really depending on if it exceeds expectations or misses expectations. So, be careful. If you're trading pre-market, you already deal with low liquidity. You'll probably have even more volatility because of that announcement pre-market. But, there's another announcement happening pre-market, which I think is even more important. Under Jerome

Core PCE Lands Thursday at 8:30 AM Eastern

Powell, we've been taught that the core PCE price index is the most important piece of inflationary data that we should be focusing on. That information comes out Thursday at 8:30 a. m. Eastern time. You can see here also that it dropped in previous month from 0. 4 down to 0. 3. And on this chart, it does look slightly elevated compared to what we saw back in 2018, 19, and 20, but not

Why 0.3% Core PCE Equals 3.6% Annualized Inflation

extraordinarily high. If it stays at 0. 3%, remember, that would equal a 3. 6% inflation rate annualized. That's not good. What is the market expecting? Well, market is expecting a 0. 3 number yet again. And I have got to play

Crude Oil Near $96 Could Push Inflation Higher

devil's advocate here. I am definitely a believer that this number is going to jump up just a little bit. Why? Because crude oil has stayed persistently above $90. As close on Friday, I think we're looking at crude oil at $96 per barrel. That is going to continue to drag transportation costs up, shipping costs, plastic materials, transport airplane fuels, all that stuff going to be higher because of this. And I think you'll start to see this tick up a little bit. But right now the expectation is 0. 3. I think you're going to get a 0. 4 number. We shall see next week when you do the Money Morning Must

Moderate Earnings, Memorial Day, Growth, and Inflation

Knows yet again. So this week it's about kind of moderate earnings. It's a week about remembrance for Memorial Day. It's also about looking at economic growth. And of course this stuff right here

Watching the Fed’s Communication Shift

which is inflationary data. I'm curious to see what Kevin Warsh says about this. Remember he was sworn in last Friday and I I'm expecting him to say something as these new announcements come out and which data are they going to hold and be most important. So we're going to get a slight change here in the way that the Fed was Federal Reserve reports information to you and I. And that will be, you know, a few months till we really feel out how Kevin Warsh is as the chairman. How does he speak? How does he do press conferences? How does he release data? And what does he find important? That's kind of a finding that new path with Kevin Warsh and we'll determine that this week, especially as he has some important data here to talk

Wrap-Up

about. So that, my friends, is your Money Morning Must Knows. Hope you have a fantastic weekend. Have a great Memorial Day and remember all those fallen soldiers and we shall see you next week.

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