When Whales Send BTC to Exchanges - Chart of The Week: Transfer Volume from LTH's to Exchanges

Hey guys, welcome to chart of the week with glass node where we run you through some of the most important charts in crypto market. Today we are focusing on long-term holder transfer volume to exchanges. By exchanges we can focus on all exchanges or a specific uh exchange like Binance, Coinbase and any uh exchange that you're interested in. Why we care about long-term holder volume to exchanges? Because long-term holder are one of the u specific cohorts of investors that are holding their coin more than 155 days and their behavior is having a significant impact on uh inflection point formation in market. meaning their behavior has a greater contribution in creating the midterm to long-term tops and midterm to uh long-term uh lows in bare market and bull market. And uh the original uh metric is pretty noisy. That's why we can use the 7-day or 14 and longer moving averages to cancel the noise. Here we just look at the 7-day moving average. Why we care about this metric specifically? If you look at most of inflection points, local tops or local bottoms in the bare markets um depending what where we are looking at what regime is the main regime in the market. Every time this metric surging to high volume, there is a high chance that market start to change its direction or at least slow down. For example, what happened in March 20 uh 2024? Look what happened in a spike in the market in this metric and market start to go sideway. Then uh back in uh October 2024, we had a price rally all the way to 100,000. This metric start to spike like uh all the way from uh October to uh mid November. So this is telling us the long-term holder are reacting to the price by sending larger volume of coin to the exchanges. If you want to know if this large volume is um mostly profit or loss, we can go look at different variation of this metric. There is a uh entity adjusted long-term holder realized loss to exchanges or long-term holder u volume in profit to the exchanges. You can look at different variation and if you look at the recent um uh correction in the market you could see the volume of long-term holder to exchanges all exchanges has been rising since midappril. So you could see starting from here starting midappril long-term holders start to react to the market's rally and it got uh the um spike got even like uh larger and larger as the price uh start to correct from 802,000. And if you want to know where they realizing mostly profit or loss because we are in the bare market we are interested in loss realization. So, we go to the long-term holder um uh loss to exchanges. Long-term holder volume of loss exchanges as you could see. And starting from May 19, you have a better understanding of the uh long-term holder uh behavior. If you focus on this uh period of time, you will see the long-term holders start to realize loss more and more, adding pressure down uh to the downside uh to the market. And you could see this metric could have helped you to speculate about potential further correction by looking at the long-term holder behavior which is here loss realization intensifying with market showing some weakness. You could go back and use a different example in bare markets and you could see their behavior when they realize loss to the exchanges that start to cool down is actually a sign of the top holder cycle top holders uh supply get resolved and we're going to have less barrier. This is a great condition for a bull market. So we have to watch this uh from uh because we are in a bare market. We can look at the realized loss to the exchanges, but you can also look at the general volume to exchanges and find the most uh potential uh inflection points in the market. And thank you for watching this video. If you have any question, please leave it in the comment. We will get back to you. If you found this breakdown helpful, please like, comment, and subscribe. And we'll see you next week.