How to Enter | What a Winning Forecast Actually Looks Like

Hi, I'm Noam. — Hi, I'm Andre. — Hi, I'm Michelle. — Hey, I'm Kenza and I'm here to help you put your best thinking forward. — Your submission has three parts. Start with your forecast. We're asking for a minimum of 10 binary predictions, yes or no outcomes, each with an assigned probability. The keyword is binary. Every forecast needs a clear, objective resolution criteria. Someone should be able to look at it in 5 years and say definitively whether it was right or wrong. — A strong forecast sounds like this. There's a 70% chance that the US effective tariff rate on imports will average over 10% between 2026 and 2028. Specific and testable and calibrated. A weak forecast sounds like this. Global tensions will increase. That tells us nothing. We can't measure it and you can't be held accountable to it. Your forecast must relate to the intersection of modern mercantilism and artificial intelligence and cover a range of time frames from 1 to 5 years out. — Part two is your framework. This is where most submissions either come together or fall apart. We're not asking you to justify every forecast individually. We're asking you to show us how you think. What's your big picture view of where the world is headed? What are the key cause and effect dynamics driving it? How do your forecasts connect into a coherent thesis? — Think of it like this. Your forecasts are the conclusions. Your framework is the reasoning that makes them inevitable. Charts and data are welcome here, but clarity is more important than volume. Three concise, well-reasoned pages will always beat 10 scattered ones. — Part three is your analytical appendix. And this one is yours to use however you want. Back up your predictions, show your models, walk through the scenarios you considered and rejected. Dive deeper into the dynamics that you think matter most. There's no prescribed format that we're looking for. We're looking for evidence that your thinking is rigorous and original. — We recommend keeping it to five pages or less. But if your analysis is exceptional, we'll keep reading. — I kept on reading. I was reading. There were some There were people who had like 40 pages of appendix. I kept on reading. I was late for my friend's wedding. A bit. — One thing I want to flag specifically, because it separates good from great, — is calibration. Assigning a probability isn't just a formality. It's a claim about your confidence. — If you say something has a 90% chance of happening, you'd better be very sure. If you say 60%, you're acknowledging real uncertainty. We're not rewarding boldness for its own sake. We're rewarding accuracy. The best forecasters aren't the ones who take the biggest swings. They're the ones whose probabilities actually match outcomes over time. — One more thing. On the use of AI tools. You're welcome to use them for brainstorming, modeling, proofreading. All of that's fine. What we're evaluating is your original thinking, your framework, your reasoning, your point of view. That cannot be AI generated. If you use AI tools in your process, just tell us how. — Total submissions should be 10 pages or less. Submitted in PDF format. And remember, we're not looking for the most polished document. We're looking for the sharpest thinking. If you have a genuine point of view on where the world is headed, make the case. That's what this is for. — We're super excited to hear from you, and we wish you best of luck. — I look forward to seeing your forecasts. — Good luck, and we're really excited to read what you come up with. — Best of luck, and happy forecasting.