Introducing Forecasting the Future | Two Forces, One Moment

We are living through one of the most consequential moments in modern history, and the next decade will define the next century. The question is, what comes next? Who wins? Who loses? And can you see it before it happens? Last year, the forecasting the future challenge focused on one force, the rise of modern mercantilism. Over a thousand people from more than 120 countries forecasted the impact of that topic, and we were blown away by the quality of the thinking. The world continues to rapidly change, and a second force is converging with modern mercantilism, artificial intelligence. Both forces have been building, but now they are colliding faster than anyone anticipated. And it's what makes year two of our forecasting the future challenge harder and even more important to get right. — At Bridgewater, we defined the term modern mercantilism. For the past 50 years, the global economy ran on a simple premise, free trade, free flow of capital, and global integration were good for everyone. Now, that premise is being dismantled. Governments are actively stepping in by using tariffs, industrial policy, and trade restrictions to protect their own industries, reduce dependence on rivals, and accumulate national strength. These aren't isolated policy decisions. They're symptoms of a new operating system for the global economy. The second force is artificial intelligence. Here, we're asking you to think big. How will the future of work change as we know it? What is AI's impact on the global economy? What is the impact for productivity, for labor, for capital flows, and for governments? What long-standing assumptions will break down? Modern mercantilism and artificial intelligence are compounding rapidly. We're in the biggest capital expenditure boom in modern history, and we're still in the early phases. Technology that now exists is compressing decades of productivity growth into years. That kind of acceleration doesn't just change industries, it reshapes the entire macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. And here's what makes this moment unlike anything we've ever seen before. These two forces are not happening in sequence. They are amplifying each other in ways that make the world dramatically harder to predict and dramatically more important to forecast well. So where does this leave you as a forecaster? It means the most important forecasts are at the intersection. Not about trade policy alone, not about AI alone, but about how these forces interact with one another. For 50 years, Bridgewater has built frameworks to understand how the world's economies and markets work. And we've used those frameworks to forecast what comes next. We've never seen both forces of this magnitude moving simultaneously. And it's all happening so fast. And the core of Global Citizen's mission is about mobilizing people who care deeply enough to drive change. They bring a global community of people who are deeply invested in the outcomes of our world. Through our partnership with Global Citizen, we believe that better forecasting, understanding what's coming and preparing for it, is one of the most consequential things we can do right now. And we want to know what you see. We have our views and we're daring you to challenge them. And the best forecasters will join us.