Что спасёт мировую экономику? Александр Аузан об опасном застое, рецессии и доверии людей

Friends, hello everyone. Today I have in The legendary figure Alexander was our guest. Aleksandrovich Auzan, doctor economic sciences, dean of economics faculty of Moscow State University, also a member of the council directors of very large Russian

companies. Alexander Alexandrovich, Thank you very much for coming. Incredibly valuable. Your big fan. So What will you get separately? Thanks a lot, Alexander, thank you for your kind words. This some kind of division of the world. The fight was on between empires, in the twentieth between systems. Further she will go between civilizations. What happened in China what could they do? What should be in Russia will happen so that we can have a long life were you able to do the distances too? I probably have you I'll surprise you with my answer. In the next couple of There will be a recession in a few years. And we don't have any guarantees that what we will build, in 10 years it’s simply not will be reset. People at the top think that people If they want teamwork at the bottom, then they are in many cases they are wrong. That is, according to in fact, we simply don’t take it upon ourselves risks. People don't like to learn new things. Innovations, in fact, are not needed by anyone. Total digitalization in order to again influence citizens. Want to start with such an introductory, but very question of interest, which It interests not only me, but also a huge number of people number of entrepreneurs. It sounds like this as follows. Why, in your opinion?

look, Russia every 10 years or so gets into some big economic collapse that it sets us back a lot and, in fact, resets the work that was done over these 10 years? Bravo! You asked the question that I think Well, probably since the end of the last century, because, you know, In 1993 the Nobel Prize was awarded Douglas North, American institutional economist, for the discovery of an effect that in English called path dependence problem. In Russian I suggested calling him rut effect. So it's like you are moving along some trajectory, but when you try to leave her, you throws it back. Yes. Russia is not the only country that experiences this very thing on himself effect. Argentina, for example, Spain. That's why Yes, we don't have the same things some quantitative declines every 10 years. Because all economies, located on the so-called trajectory B, now I will explain what it is such. They move very unevenly. Let's say there are big rises, then there are big declines. And trajectory A is 35 countries of the world. They move with much lower annual growth rate. But they do not fall deeply. This is about the same thing, What are you talking about quantitatively? This was open to such British statisticians as Angus Edison. I'm not generally an envious person, but he I envy you. I was 37 years old, I already had a PhD in ninety-first year, by the way, I could do the same. By the way, you, well, you couldn't because of your age, but many could. What did he do? It's one page long. wrote out data for the entire statistical period observations. Everyone, in general, knows that in England statistics from the 15th century, France, Russia, German lands, the Netherlands beginning of the 19th century. We have statistics picture of the world from 1820 years. But for some reason we don’t go deep there looked in. Sorry, I have a question straight away. clarifying. And what data is this? When you speak statistical data, this is data reflecting what exactly? Gross product. Yes. And the population is pure. And this These are key indicators, right? GDP cappita. Ladies and gentlemen. That's why we look back 5 years, 10 years, and Angus Madison took it all and brought it all down to one page. These are the so-called tables Madison. And then the economists gasped. It turned out that the countries are going in two directions trajectories, only two. Trajectory A and trajectory B. Moreover, 35 countries are following trajectory A, and 170 countries are following trajectory B. We are in category 35. We are in category 170. And we, on the contrary, are in category 170. But we are in the category of those, uh, who is trying to get out of trajectory B trajectory A. There are countries that do not they are trying. They live for something else, not I know, there, spiritual values. Such There are quite a lot of countries in the world. And there is countries that try, but for everything observation time five successful attempts. Well, I would say six already. This is Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore. Now, I would say, also Chinese People's Republic. Well, they succeeded. cross the table and move to the top trajectory. So that's what you're talking about you ask, on the one hand, it is properties of countries that move along low trajectory, they are very move in jerky motion. I'll tell you why. Because they have bad, worse than in the countries of the territory, institutes are working. That is, the rules are they work poorly, and this means that the shock absorbers are not they work. Yes. Therefore, for a big one growth is followed by a large decline. On the other hand, the glue problem is not the only problem is the pace of movement. Although I would compare this story with the first and second cosmic speed, because everything are developing, but alone in near-Earth space hold on, while others go somewhere breakaway. In principle, I would like to have the opportunity to break away. Let's try to be more specific. Here Look, China is so bright. example, because that's exactly the point the country that you now consider to be that it went from one track to another another. And it happens like this, in general, perhaps it switched because of the transition lasts approximately 50 years. Possibly. And then

There is such a long story here. We Now I'll talk about distance with you again. We'll definitely talk. I like it very much Interesting. But look, this is It's essentially happening right before our eyes. right now. Yes. What is the fundamental difference? I realized that Yes. They have, it turns out that the institutes didn't work either as effectively as they work now, but They took it and were able to change it after all. What was the catalyst for this? changes? Is there one thing, which they fundamentally changed, and did this allow them to get off this trajectory? You know, I would say this: if we discussed all the cases, that's the only thing these have in common In some cases, this is the length of the gaze. when the elites in the country, we have a special a report on this matter was made for president in 2011 East Asian modernizations, when the elites look 20 years ahead, and at the same time they are patriotic in What do you mean? This does not mean that her children they won't leave the country, but that means that They don't build airfields for children. specifically, meaning the evacuation of Ugu. the next generation of elite. So, the length of the gaze is the first sign, because otherwise they are very various. And I'll tell you, This is interesting problem, How do you manage? move because what I was doing Japan, one, what South Korea did - another thing that Singapore did - third. Perhaps, here it already begins to get quite subtle theory. There is such a concept as intermediate institute. Well, I would say it as a human being so: you need to be able to build stairs from its current position to the target condition. Well, that is, let me I'll try to describe it a little in a different way. By the way, the concept intermediate institute developed our compatriot Viktor Mirevich Poltyrovich, academician. Later, the American economist Turkish The origin of Days Rodrick became about the same write. and Chinese economist Yinyi. So what are we actually talking about? When you need to go somewhere, absolutely not necessarily in order to develop, demolish everything around. To you need to remove the section of the fence that is preventing you from moving in this direction. What about the other sections? And they need to be use as points if possible supports. Let me give you an example South Korean example because it more obvious, although Chinese could have been used as well.

Samsung. So how did Samsung come into being? In the first half of the fifties after the civil war, military intervention in Korea is devastated, impossible an underdeveloped country that knows how only produce rice. The South Koreans did two things to ensure that to find these points of support and find opportunities to build stairs. First, Western consultants told them: "And, By the way, you don't need to hire me relatives. "Interesting idea," the Koreans said. and built industrial concerns, not only Samsonka and other tebols on the base clan connections. It turned out that way economically for South Korea is extremely effectively, because everyone knows who's the boss, everyone know who to listen to. No additional investments are required control, in management. Very cheap and effective management. I'm sorry that will overamount. That is, they disobeyed. absolutely the opposite of this recommendation. That there they said: "And we, on the contrary, do this we use it because what do we have? is there anything? Here we have clan connections and rice production. So, rely on we need to look at the clans and the fact that rice farming is It's not like tire farming. There Algorithms are very important. Yes. Do it once, do two, do 124. These are peasants knew how to do it. Then they said: "Assembly in foreign engineering is the same the very thing that is resuscitation. You just have to strictly follow the instructions." They put peasants on conveyor belts and earned money mechanical engineering chebl. Why me I say that we still need to compare stairs? It's not one step, not one find. And then they came to a dead end. This dead end, by the way, in world practice it's called Asian crisis. Since 1997 in Russia he goes by a short pseudonym default. Yes. This is the Asian crisis. A guilty of it, in particular, South Korean Chaebols, then state Banking system of Korea. So, the next steps of the ladder, you know how built Samsung?

They gave two orders: All engineers should take off their ties. and all engineers get education of your choice in any in the field of art. And after a few years, Samsung became Apple's nightmare. Clarifying question. Did I understand your idea correctly that they began to influence through some kind of society, through culture? through culture, through people through the cultural idea. In general, getting out of the rut effect, because This is what the glue effect consists of. If you want, I'll tell you, actually, that's what North was given the Nobel Prize for. He showed how to listen, as in the case with England and Spain, and then with the USA and Argentina experienced very similar things stories. Look, England and Spain in the 15th century, countries were extremely similar at each other according to the purity of the population, according to the tasks, who decide. Both are trying to create overseas empires. It's going on in both countries the struggle between kings and parliament. In both There is a concentration of ownership in countries. After 3 centuries there is a huge difference. Spain is one of the most backward European countries. Despite the fact that she received more assets from the colonies than England. What years were these? This is a dream Dena Vek watched the Nord period. And England without any reservations in the 10th century the first country of the world, the center of the empire, over which the sun never sets. World industrial and scientific workshop. How did this happen? The analysis led to a very unexpected finding, accidents. It doesn't sound optimistic, to be honest. And I’ll tell you what a coincidence it was. Randomness of institutional choice. IN England, taxes fell into the slump during the struggle hands of parliament. Yes. And in Spain remained in the hands of the king. And in the end The consequences were long and powerful. Why? Because if, uh, through Parliament controls the taxpayer taxes, then you can invest. That which You robbed in the colonies, it makes sense invest. But if kings set taxes themselves, then kings, as we know, love to fight, make leaky budgets. And then these money received from the colony must be spend immediately. A culture is being formed festival. Well, okay, Spain fixed that. mistake. Well, of course, then taxes came into play into the hands of parliament, there were two Spanish revolutions and so on and so forth, but it's still barely moving. Why not? is catching up with England? Because initial mistake in choosing institutions, and then it is imprinted in culture, in values ​​and behavioral installations. And this is proven precisely the second example. north and South American republics, they are also in were formed very close to each other. Moreover South American republics They have a constitution there 40 years later. American is better. They left the experience Napoleonic Code and they were initially good competed. Argentina had the same gross product per capita, as North American United States. A then lost the competition. Why Latin American countries inherited the rent culture of Spain? Yes. A North American republics inherited the investment culture England. That's why Nord is essentially on historical The material showed how it works. If you want to overcome the glue effect, so that you don't raised and dropped, you need to transform at the same time institutions and culture. This is pretty long history because the culture, Of course, it won't be transformed in 10 years. IN culture, everything is measured in generations. Lina generation 25 years. Speaking of culture. Mikhail Maratovich Friedman once on one of his interview explained how management works in

Russian companies. And he started with this, that in general, human culture in general Russia and, as a consequence, both companies and global economy can be compared with such a mobilization model. That is, I will give an example. If, let's say we come to the British and we'll set him a task, he'll complete it will break it down into timeframes, will outline everything some rapper points and gradually will begin to move towards the goal and the moment, In fact, she will have what she needs. Russian culture is structured like this in the way that we set a goal, we postpone maximum, maximum, maximum. And then at that moment when we are already getting a slap in the face when already Well, we can't help but do it, we're on our way, as he says, incredible efforts in We are accomplishing heroic work in record time act. This is also cultural thing. Of course, I'll tell you that she is well studied and substantiated, because that there is such a wonderful book historian academician Milov, Great Russian plowman. He has big numbers in hands shows how different it was the way our ancestors managed their economy came from that, what is in Europe and Scandinavia. The vegetative cycle is two times shorter Russia than in Europe. The climate in Scandinavia is fundamentally softer. That is, in the end they were created conditions when you miraculously make it sow between spring frosts and white flies in autumn. Hence Russian vegetable because, Well, maybe it will rise after all. From here ability to mobilize with subsequent relaxation for months because are they capable of should we mobilize here? I'm totally crazy get off how? But not for long, because if we hope that this will become a habit, it doesn't become a habit because it is such arrhythmia the employment of our ancestors over the centuries, when in winter he wears bast shoes at best he's weaving something, sleeping on the stove. Energy saving. Saving energy it's quite reasonable because it's cold, and anyway, what to do? Everything is covered with snow entered. Therefore the climate is very strong influenced such things. It still has an influence, but then it had an even stronger influence. Returning to the fact that Mikhail Maravich I said, but in general, companies also get sick rut effect. Moreover, Russian ones companies, they get sick for various reasons. There is such an article from ten years ago by three Swedes, written about how Is the effect being seen in the company? But and the reasons can be different. Let's say, the technology was wrong or there focused on the wrong market sector. But in Russia the most common reason is, Do you know which one? Personalization. The company was created by a person for himself. Yes. But people it was not us who said mortals, moreover suddenly mortal. That's why companies are always personalized are at risk. Man, well, take the soft option, just move away from I just started doing less of these things affairs. And all the internal institutions of the company - this is a reflection of his peculiarity, his understanding. And another person, put in this place, well, that's it it's the same as what they put on you clothes. there, I don't know, girls of a fourteen-year-old teenager. It's uncomfortable here, it's impossible to move. AND you can just see how the trajectories change companies, both from a fairly wide range search they turn into something better. That is, there is no need yet. I turn the steering wheel, it seems like nothing happens scary. And when it turns out that the steering wheel I need to turn it, but it gets stuck, that's when It turns out that the effect of clija is also disease at the company level. Past Dependence Problem is one of those historical diseases that are associated with culture, a link between culture and institutions, that is, the normative rules, which we live. Because the institute is After all, that's what an iceberg is. All sorts of things from above laws, company charters, agreements shareholders, and under the water there is culture, values ​​and behavioral attitudes. If you have them When combined, you get a high effect. If they contradict each other, then that's it. it moves with a terrible creaking sound or generally gives opposite results. Where to get time for development when Are you sitting in the operating system? Big problem for entrepreneurs. No employees, who solve problems independently, produce results and save time. There is always a need for outside control owner. I want to share with you example of Nikita Orlovsky, who I built a working system and has quadrupled in just one year. Now he has his own construction company and 80 person on staff. But it was not always like this. 3 years ago, reaching the 20 mark employees, he was faced with the fact that the company is not growing. And with each new one he spends more and more time as a person for control. Instead of delegating, he burdened himself with control. In 2 years he I tried dozens of trainings, methodologies and courses. Things were getting better It's better only for 1-2 months, but then I had to control everything again. The latest impulse was from the Quantum company. They talked about the culture of acceptance decisions, about regulations and how implement them correctly. They showed how make a company roadmap, and this it worked. Now Nikita has more than 80 employees. They set it for themselves tasks and complete them without reminders. If any task gets out of order systems, employees themselves suggest solution. They are waiting for it to come the leader will sort everything out. If you want, three simple ones will also help you actions. The first thing is to implement regulations, ready-made instructions for employees carry out their tasks. Free set of the twenty main regulations there will be follow the link below this video. Second, use quantum for business. There You can download these regulations. This online software that allows you to spend on managing a company is just a few hours a day. Third, take a free test take an online tour and see from the inside how system companies operate in your niche. Already more than 1,100 entrepreneurs implemented quantum from into their work microbusinesses to large corporations. You just check out their successful experience and apply it to your business. Friends, I'm leaving you a link to some useful ones materials. These are 20 files, among which regulations, the decision taken, which will help organize business processes so that employees don't come to you with a problem, but with a solution. and a guide on how implement a system of regulations that will help you digitalize your company and business processes. Also at the link Sign up for a tour. I recommend it absolutely every entrepreneur take advantage of this opportunity. Let's go. Yes, by the way, this doesn't work not only on a large scale, but also on a small scale. If the leader described even in his company of birds

a person has certain goals and values, and he himself does not follow them. It's like, in general, The fish rots from the head. As you know, this is very funny. This is quite common story. Moreover, she doesn’t always admit it. top management of the company, because we for 12 years now with my colleagues Faculty of Economics, Institute We are not involved in national projects only by theory and macro processes, we were involved in a wide variety of projects companies. And in the past twenty-third year for the first time, we did a full diagnosis the company's cultural code is very large companies, 49 subsidiaries. AND very interesting results and such significant because we proposed change the organizational structures of this quite a successful company. And the board agreed, by the way, because this is the closure of culture and working organizational forms, it was not too perfect. But I'm talking about friend. We showed the board that if people those at the top think that the people at the bottom want teamwork, then they are in many In some cases they make mistakes. People below want independent work. Yes. And theirs incentives, management methods and so on configured. That's why we said, "Listen, either you change your perception, or you need to replace the entire staff, because this staff is set up for such an individualistic one independent work." Well, we are talking about some key subsidiary companies giant, but everything we talk about is in fact, it's about both business and country, and maybe about a person. Understood. Look, let's talk about it then the culture is still a little more clarifying question. And I understood the climate. And it seems to me

it's so important, actually thing, because I know from my own experience that when Winter, you don't want to do anything extra no body movements. You're getting into warm and you feel comfortable with this, and we can't influence this in any way. That is, maybe it will at some point warmer, but not much. But there is another one nuance. Look, there are many of them make such a claim to Russia that As a rule, Russian people have a certain the position is simply that there are such European countries that were able to, for example, yes, they also really love in Give Switzerland as an example. and so on, but in Russia there is one a nuance that no one else has. It's just a vast territory, eh, including a huge number different peoples in this territory, each of which has its own cultural code, lives in a climate that is not corresponds to the climate of other regions Russia. And, frankly speaking, if that's the case make a little guess and rely on what you said creates the feeling, that change the culture as a whole some new mode is simply impossible. It doesn't matter what distance we're talking about, 5 years, 10, 20, 30, just as if impossible. So, first of all, I want to say that it is possible to change, and she changes. Well, for how much, that's also firmly known. This such a funny story. There was a special amount of research. An economist like that prominent Alisina and the author undertook it. Well, it concerned Germany, because that, What is a tragedy for some peoples is a tragedy for others there are professions of economists, sociologists, philosophers interesting material. Germany divided, united, and in the end You can watch what happens when is divided, is united. more like the same the most, yes, there was one, it split, practically broke up the culture disintegrated. There are two cultures now North and South Korea are culturally different. So, returning to Germany, We looked, it was 17 years later, in my opinion, after the fall of Berlin walls. And what has changed in the East? Germans? how similar they became predominant and more such the rich population of the western lands. AND it turned out that yes, there is a rapprochement, but slowly. And what's more, in young people differences in generations are evident attitude towards the state, towards redistributive taxes. But what’s interesting is that when they counted, how long does it take to with purposeful movements states, so that this rapprochement can be completed, It turned out to be 40 years. Yes. This is so that they absorbed all these new values. Yes. And you don’t remember where this number is already? is present? Mosesigian Moissii led his people through the desert for 40 years. For what? A completely cultural goal. after Egyptian slavery in order to The people forgot slavery. Therefore, what the current ones have counted economists, in general, were known from such very common books and revered. So, yes, 40 years is time of significant change. Although sometimes Culture does not change for an extremely long time. I'll give you an example. The author of one of the most, eh, such interesting research, this The Cultural Transmission. There are two authors, one American. of Italian origin, second Frenchman. Bezin and Verdier. So, uh, Bezin, Professor Bezin was with us faculty, gave a lecture at Faculty of Economics of Imgur, told an amazing thing. The same Italian. He talked about Italy. 10th century, maybe the most terrible turning point time. Historians call it a great turning point. After that, things went wrong Renaissance, revival and so on, and so on. And the industrial revolution as a result, and capitalism in the end. So, the 15th century - What is this? This is the Black Death, the plague, which takes away from a third to a half the entire population of Europe, practically destroys cities. What's happening in Italy? Who is to blame? In some cities They blame the Jews for being poisonous They spread and beat Jews. IN others believe that the guilty people, because they sinned a lot. And here it is accumulated sins, and the Lord became angry. Now pay attention, 600 years pass. 600. The fall of the regime in the 1940s Mussolini and the German occupation of Italy. The Nazis are coming to solve the Jewish problem question. Where Jews were counted in the 10th century guilty, They are handed over to the Nazis. Where they think, that the financier lies on people for they thought that For their sins they were punished by the plague. They hid it Jews from the Nazis for 600 years. And culture hasn't changed, hasn't changed. Yes, that's why she is sometimes extremely sustainable. Essentially, only when it acts through the three most powerful channel: school, prison and army, she changes noticeably. Look, I'm getting some juice right out of here. You know, I'll throw a bridge. We are with you Today we agreed to talk about future. And this is very interesting because

that in general I would like to plan somehow, not just plan, but at least to guess where we're going at all, so that could you have some guidelines in yourself? create in your head. And you said something like this, It's not interesting to plan for 2t5 years, but it's much more interesting to talk further. Why? Why do you say that we can't know what will happen nearby? Do you know how it is? Look, I have this one there is a little bit of dissonance here because a person on the contrary, when he sets himself some goals, on the contrary, he understands that will be in the near future, a year or two, based on the current circumstances of its activities, he can assume, when he looks 10 years ahead, there absolute abyss. Well, that's what's here difference? Let's try another one apply analogs. Here you are sitting at the table and play roulette. It seems like this will happen in a minute, but you can't predict that. and through an hour cannot predict what will happen there Zero or no Zero will drop. And here's what there will be summer this year, you are high you can predict with probability. Means, it turns out that short events for you sometimes feel extremely bad predictable, but events, especially if cyclical, repetitive, they predictable. That's why I say, I can't tell you much about twenty fifth, twenty-sixth and 27th year, and here there's already a lot more about the fortieth, because What I really want this right away, this is a must for me apology to listeners and viewers. I always repeat it when I start talk about some forecasts. My old friend, biologist Svyatoslav Igor Zabelin told me many years ago he said, "You know, on ours the graves will read: "They were sincerely mistaken." That's why I absolutely can't guarantee that everything will be like this forty or fifty, but I can ensure that today I think like this: "I'm not being disingenuous, I'm not I'm distorting, but I'm presenting the results of my own thoughts." Friends, here are some interesting ones for you numbers. According to the study Business Secrets for the first quarter of 2023 year the number of sellers on marketplaces increased by only 21%. For comparison, in 2022 for the same During the same period, growth amounted to almost 300%. The main reason is competition. Some entrepreneurs simply don't some can withstand it, others don't go on sites due to fear of high competition. Although the volume of orders and Revenue on marketplaces is growing year on year per year. So, to make a good profit and even push out current niche leaders it is possible, but only with analytics and with special tools. Help with The MPATS service can do this. It's easy with him manage sales on marketplaces and build an effective business. MPats will come in handy to solve a variety of problems tasks on Wibberries, Ozoon and Yandex Market. The service will come in as for beginners for a confident start, and for those who have been in this business for a long time. With his with the help of which you can analyze the market and select a product to sell, set up SEO and advertising, reduce costs logistics and optimize supplies, set up automatic control price, advertising and reviews. This, Of course, not everything. There are also more in MPST dozens of tools and reports that will help you not only stay afloat, but also to increase profits and avoid banal mistakes. We've already tried MPS. more than 570,000 entrepreneurs, and 180 schools conduct trade training marketplaces using MPATS. And among clients include large companies such as Simal, SPAT, ZINA, Toyo, LvrA and many others other. So, friends, for those who wants to conduct sales not blindly, but Based on the figures, MPATS prepared promo code for free access to the service for 7 days. Follow the link to the bot description, get the promo code and test all tools. Let's go. So This is what we can rely on for to look there?

On trends and on waves. By the way, people don't They differ greatly. And now I'll tell you this What is it that misleads us? Wave. Displacement of a person from production was predicted by Charles Beybet in the twenties of the XIX century. Yes. It is predicted every 50 years. Did it happen? Well, of course they do. some serious processes, but for some reason it pushes and attracts. Pushes, attracts. Please. I can say the same about globalization. say. It is now a commonplace that globalization is gone. Yes, she left. Only she will return. Look at the graph. globalization over a long period. For what period? It's worth watching. I have what is meant by globalization exchange of goods, services, movements people, finances between countries. You have to look from 1857 because This is the first global crisis. The girl has matured. This is how the farm became united in fifty-seventh, in 1857. If you look, you will see, well, not a sine wave, but, in general, very oscillatory dynamics. The highest the point, by the way, is not at the beginning of the 21st century century, as it seems to us, and in 1913 the year before the First World War. Yes. And then there are downturns, and then upturns. That's why I, for example, decide, I rarely say this such things about close horizons. Assume that in the next couple of years there will be a global recession after all, soft, hard, hard to say. It will do. She is from China, from Germany, from the USA, from Japan, which suddenly stopped. Yes. Although they thought it would stop Germany. Yes. This is unknown. But after the recession, most likely there will be a reversal of trends and a new wave will come globalization. Why do such fluctuations occur? Because two opposing forces act. What force brings countries together? The law of separation discovered by Adam Smith labor. People are better at what they can do and love to do, and exchange it for that, what they don't like and don't know how to do. But when tightened strongly, it has an effect cultural difference, cultural differences. And he starts pushing. Even The European Union is pushing north and south, exit England from the European Union. That's why centripetal forces work. forces, then centrifugal. And of course it is important understand not only where the process will be globalization, but also where these will be pushing to act. By the way, sorry, we will respond. We missed your statement about Russia. Yes, we have a special feature. This is huge space, the largest country in the world, but in a significant world space uninhabited. It is a fact. Yes. And if talk about cultural diversity, then Russia's cultural diversity, no matter how strange, not big. This is according to the indexes, right? called, and the Greenberg index is 0.25 20 from the unit of the diversity inherent Russia, that is, Russia is not a very good country high diversity and small cultural distances. Now I'll explain what I mean. You know, one of the authors who pushed me to these thoughts about the impact of culture on the economy is

Lev Nikolaevich Gumilyov. And the thinker wonderful, amazing and person kissed story because he is the son Nikolai Gumelev Ianna Akhmatova. Yes. U Gumeleva has a book called "Geography of the Ethnos in historical period" where he set out a question which we now, by the way, we can answer. He said, "Here Look what an interesting thing. The English, when they conquered America We had a rough encounter with the Indians, friend. each other was exterminated. And the French Indians understood well. The exact opposite story is in Polynesia, because in Polynesia They slaughtered the French. Yes. And the English the natives understood well. I want to tell you that if we talk about the advancement of the Russians, then the whole movement Russians through Siberia just like a knife through butter until reached America because The Gikuts were well received by the Eskimos were received well. With Indians collided so hard that it was impossible to hold on the American coast and for this reason it was also difficult because under cultural distances work. But in Russia, in the space in which we live, cultural distances are not high. We are in this sense we have the state that was formed mostly not through wars. Yes. I have A clarifying question, there is already such a bridge I'll throw it into our picture of the future. Look, The United States and Russia, both

the country was oriented in some way a moment in time for progress, for development and so on. And it was in Russia too serfdom, and in the States there was slavery. But nevertheless, apparently, based on what you say, we can assume that the cultural code It's somehow very different for us. A, and so the question arises from here: where there was this catalyst where we went a little in different directions, that one country now, let's say, is going through a rather difficult period in I don't know about the plane there, I don't know about mine there sovereignty, something else, and the second the country is the main manipulator in world. Uh, I'll probably surprise you with mine. answer, uh, because on the one hand we really according to the cultural code are extremely different. I could Provide quantitative data. Eat, uh, this is the method the remarkable Dutchman Geertahasted, which is used for just descriptions of nations. Yes. We really are in it We use it in the analysis. There are six characteristics. So, the first time we did it for business such an analysis, and the conversation was about Russian company transnational company that worked and had staff at the same time, didn't just trade in Russia, USA, Japan, Germany and China. And, accordingly, we had such five star charts superimposed on each other friend. Yes. Such a fluorogram, such portraits of nations. From everyone, more precisely, from four one was sharply different. This is the United States of America. It's kind of upside down there. trapezoid instead such pointed triangles. That is we are with the Japanese, Chinese, Germans in are much more similar. Yes. And sharply from everyone Americans are different. This is necessary understand why. After all The United States is a completely different country by origin. unique, because she has no history. She

formed on empty or devastated lands by merging very different ethnic groups, not a merger, but interactions. And the construction of rules of interaction. I forgot who is the father of American statehood said that democracy - this is the relationship between two well-armed gentlemen, because there all the time we need to balance this, observe it subordination. Yes, that's a great phrase, yes, that's why you're right that it's American the code is initially different. I can speak, by what indicators? He is completely different. But why me? said I would surprise you? The story you gave about slavery and serfdom, has one common point, which testifies to the similarity ours. Yes. Do you understand what the thing is? Here in the same 1993 with Das Nort Robert received the Nobel Prize Vogel. The economic historian received a application of quantitative methods and successful research of history, which proved that the abolition of slavery in The United States had no economic grounds. He conducted quantitative research, statistics, that is, efficiency e of slave and free farms and showed that in general slave-owning farms were 15% more efficient. And in the states of the new south by 35% more efficient than free farming north. The question is, why? did slavery fall? Vogel says: "A revolution in values ​​and preferences." If in the twenties of the 10th century educated Americans believe that slavery is such an unpleasant thing, but inevitable protectorate over the underdeveloped people, they need to be taught something, and then give freedom, then from the forties years they began to believe that slavery - This is disgusting. A huge role in this The book by Gareth Beecher Stowe was based on it. predatory Uncle Tom's. Avram Linkon at a meeting with Bitterstov said: "You are the little woman behind which this great war began." So, Russia. In Russia freedom of the nobility after, it is necessary to say, the enslavement of the nobility by Peter I. The freedom of the nobility was granted in 1762 in the year Peter II. And freedom for the peasantry was still expected for 99 years. years, until 1861. We were arguing about the same thing. But that's right whether for the economy, for human relations, to cancel customs? Some said: "Need to", others don't. You know that did literature break the bank? Mumu. Mu. Turgenev wrote mu. So. Well, Alexander II, it is true, claimed that the hunter's notes on him had more impression, but the country was hit on the head Of course, he hit Mumu. Look, before There is still a mention of this story in all sorts of jokes, comics, and so on much more than Pushkin's fairy tales, which seems to be a super classic. Well, how? the educated country, reading, read, let's say this way, the country, Mumu, says: "And I feel sorry for the dog, and I feel sorry for Gerasim, and What a disgusting thing this serfdom is right." Serfdom fell. Therefore, Yes, the cultural codes are very different, American ones are ours, but the law of history, Apparently, what works, in particular, is that slow-acting culture sometimes brings about revolutions, which destroy the economy, another creates the economy. This is a fact. A very interesting story, actually. Oh, and right away, you know, again This begs my question about, I really liked how you they explained about rent and serfdom

it's true that this concept exists rents, and it has a very strong influence in general on how this or that one develops country that when some appears the resource is not exactly free, conditionally free, then people prefer instead in order to create something new, use it and get from it rent. Look, here it is again, in essence Let's draw a parallel. Both there and there slavery, serfdom, rent in that or in another form. Rent, of course. Both there and there are natural resources, rent in to some extent. But for some reason some people choose to do something else besides this, come up with and so on, and others continue to collect rent. Yes. In what difference? And I already said, you just either give me the opportunity to repeat, I told you, what when we looked for reasons why five countries, now, probably six, managed to cross from low to high territory, they have one common property, long look. Looking ahead 20 years, because what is it investment income as opposed to rent? Yes. Rent is me, I'm 17 years old, I'm going to school. finished. And now give me the oil well, because I have something to work on I'm not going to. Or, by the way, this can be expressed in friend, you know, standard error, a small mistake in the image economic success, which in Russia exists. Who is a successful person in Silicon Valley? From a Russian perspective from the point of view of this guy, he's 20-22, I came up with some kind of thing in the garage and became a dollar billionaire. All True, except for one age. Yes, to the guy 40-43. I had some guests recently Lieberman brothers. I don't know, you know, Probably like these. And they are just right for me too they cited statistics that in fact reanistatic billionaire is an age 43 years, which is seven behind him errors. Right? Yes. And sometimes there are 10, and 15. So, I'll explain why here clinging to the rent? It's not about that at all oil, because when the oil runs out, they will find another source. When they say: "Here "Oil drove us crazy." Sorry, but 500 years of serfdom squeezed out of people rent. Yes. And before that there were sable skins and so on, too too, I would say, intensive method housekeeping, yes. Therefore, they will find another source of rent. If they want rent, they will start renting it out. endless spaces in Siberia for freezing something bad. This is also a way to receive rent. The original question is about the length of the gaze. Here if you are ready to look at 20 years forward, at least 10 years ahead, if you are willing to admit, that a person can make mistakes and correct them mistakes and move forward along this path, you have a completely different life trajectory. That's why I keep saying now, what is the key to this more human and economically successful the future of Russia, it is in 3D in the long run look trust in most people and ability to negotiate. Here is 3D. And by the way, We are trying with corporate culture watch now because we were told: "And we can have a corporate culture move in this direction, get effects?" Well, we'll see. Ask After 3 years, I'll say it worked out for me or it didn't work out. Great. About long sight. This is the most, in fact, interesting. Ah, just a small footnote. I using the examples of the United States, some I ask questions. It's not that I'm big

I'm a fan of the United States, just because that it seems somehow so understandable comparison. Look, let's say I I'm an entrepreneur and I'm in Russia and I want to look forward. I have some amount of money, there is a team, and we ready to create, ready to create new technologies, ready to build with 20-year perspective internally. But how We are just objective realists, we look and we understand that we simply don’t we can plan and have no guarantees that what we will build, in 10 years it’s simply not will be reset. We'll get some again economic colony. And here it arises the biggest question. It's the same again The most, probably, effect of the cli is when I want to plan ahead, and I sincerely I want to, and I understand that it’s big the result, the gigantic result, it is done only by distance. Impossible do what is required in 2 years 20 years, huh? And nine women will not give birth in month. It's the same here. And here a huge number of things. The first thing is, As we have already discussed, the cultural code. Second, well, I'm just resilient institutes, of course, I just objective. I look and it was like this, Why should it suddenly change? And from here the question arises. Why do I need it then? invest money, time and a huge amount of effort with enormous risk in order to play the long game? And at I don't have an answer to this question. What, on your view must change in order for Did I get an answer to this question? I don't just about myself, but in general about entrepreneurship. You know, similar I asked the question on Friday. Ours came to visit me graduate of the Faculty of Economics, which now runs a very large subsidiary of Sber. Yes. AND is engaged in, eh, mutual funds, closed-end investment funds funds. And so she made beer again in another company, ten years old, and says: "Do you know what I'm proud of?" What People voted for the next 10 years. I say: "Listen, how is this why? They once decided on a ten-year investment, and now they confirmed it again, what are they counting on, what are they motivated? This is also a question for me. Yes, we agree in our thoughts, it turns out. I can reproduce her answer. She said that, firstly, reputation Sberbank, as now, of course, itself a large company in the country. Gazprom, $60 billion in market capitalization went down, Sbir rose to the first position. And secondly, trust her personal team and the rules, which they made, registered and cannot be changed without general consent paschiks. Yes. So, why am I saying this? I say? Institutes are built not only from above and resolved not only from below. Institutes are also being built on the side. contracts, which conclude between themselves entrepreneurs. By the way, we just finished Here Institute of National Projects, Faculty of Economics, Moscow State University, Moscow Skolkovo School of Management and Noudom. We finished first a major study of trust in business. Yes. We'll tell you about the results soon, but for me the most amazing result, Do you know which one? You can see what it stands on. So, it stands on the institute, which it's called a contract, because the most serious investments go into conclusion of a contract, and the contract creates quite a high confidence. There is no chance of going to court. Yes. There is, however, a reliance on observers arbitrator in the form of a regional official relations with counterparties. Here he is spiritual authority in Islam banking and court in the Anglo-Saxon system. For us it's regional official. But this is an institutional scheme. such. I want to tell you that this The contract gives amazing results. You know, in 2004 I was amazed mirror image of two digits. Survey of the population of Russia, then this is Livadovsky also conducted an examination. Yuri Alexandrovich was still alive. showed that 84% Uh, most people don't trust me. most other people. Yes. Yes. And the same number 84 appeared in

examination that Andrey conducted Yakovlev, by the way, is also a graduate of ours faculty, then became the vice-rector of the Higher School of Economics and Timati Fry on business, where it turned out, that 84% businessmen trust their counterparties. I'll think, "Oh my God, how is this possible? People seem to do business with people, distrustful, skeptical. Where do they get this idealism from? Then I realized that this was not idealism and explained That's exactly why. This is a very important example. You know, the key phrase was entrepreneur of the nineties, who said: "Nothing strengthens like that faith in man as one hundred percent prepayment". Entrepreneurs ran the path institutional development. After all let's remember, in the early nineties there was an exchange of hostages, I emphasize, not by pledges, but hostages between groups. You can about this talk to some of your interlocutors. They may not tell you, but they definitely remember. Then from behind the hostages they moved on to collateral, then moved to one hundred percent prepayment, then eighty percent, fifty percent and came to contract. And here is this figure of 84% trust counterparty, we received it now. Here In 2004 she was like this and now she is 20 years old costs. What does it stand on? She stands on those institutions that are made by hand business despite all external risks. Because what you do inside companies are also institutions and also culture. What you do between contracts, with outsourcing, with partnerships are also institutions. And this quite a lively and quite strong environment in Russia, which showed, in my opinion, the critical year of twenty-second, when The sanctions strike has occurred. Survival it happened due to the fact that business and the market turned out to be working not only there in psychological, cultural, but in institutional plan. It turned out that this blow is cushioned structures of relationships, organizations contacts, contracts, and so on and so forth further. Friends, thank you for watching my podcasts. Thanks to everyone who subscribed to channel, to everyone who is new to us. and to everyone, who has been among the subscribers for a very long time and

doesn't miss a single issue. If you don't knew that I was running my own Telegram channel and, among other things, I'm publishing my thoughts there after meeting with guest. In short, and sometimes not in a very short audio I share my impressions and emotions after the podcast

thoughts about the guests and the topics we touched upon. Sometimes I talk about topics, which were not included in the main version YouTube. There is a link to my Telegram channel in the description. Go ahead, subscribe and Come back and finish watching the podcast. Let's go. That is, based on the fact that you speak as if returning to my the question of what needs to happen in order for me to start believing, it's essentially the formation of similar institutions as in business, only on a wider scale, at the state level. Absolutely. Moreover, I would say that the development of these institutions at the business level are already being created these ten-twenty year terms trust, otherwise they wouldn't work for mutual funds. Another matter is on what scale they are so far they work. But big companies that I am in really I have the honor of being an independent member board of directors, they are trying look at the long term before fortieth year, until forty-fifth year and so on, and so on. So we can let's get back to talking about the future, because that this is a normal conversation in the big Russian business. This is the same understanding, after all, that long-term Investments are possible. Let's go then Let's move on to this. Look, it's the fortieth How long is a year? 16 years old. 16 years before fortieth year. And now, probably, one of the most relevant ones in general the topic that is being discussed, discussed and that people think about. And it seems to me, it's just like it was done on purpose so it rises to the top. It's something like that division of the world, what if before everything we were striving for unification, but now it feels like there are different centers they begin to arrange things around themselves, like The United States, like Russia alone or with some partners, like Middlesex, China, India, plus there are other different ones countries that also show up, appear and so on and so forth. Look, you said what we said. we can assume that it will be based on cycles, yes, and waves. Can we now, based on these things, guess what will happen in 15 or in 20 or maybe 30 years from now points of view of statehood and from the point of view of the interactions of these states among themselves? There are some things we can do. Although I don't think so the main life nerve will be here struggle. But let's talk about this. Let's. Yes. Means, Look what happened. Sam Huntington in the nineties wrote a book about the clash of civilizations. Then, in general, after the collapse of the previous one peace in ninety-first year, of course, the old world collapsed. Yes. Arose attempts to see the future. Francis Fukuyama just hit the nail on the head. I just said something stupid about the end history and triumph of the liberal democracy. Fukuyama as if It's good because it provides a background for that, so that others can speak out. After him, no one is afraid anymore. screw up. Yes. Wallerstein, such a Marxist a thinker who talks about global economic systems began to say that they would develop. He got a lot of things right, but He guessed Huntington the best. which said that in the 16th century, in the 19th century geopolitical, the geo-economic struggle was between empires, in the twentieth between systems. Further she will go between civilizations. And this is certainly true. 25 years have passed after Huntington's book. You won't believe it, he I wrote in this book, I recently wrote it I reread it about a year and a half ago, the dividing line between East and West Christian civilization is passing through Ukraine. And there, perhaps, in ninety in the sixth year, he wrote this, at ninety sixth, and such development conflict that it is possible to apply Russian troops in the 90s, up to nuclear weapons, in my opinion, he even He said there were some stories like that. I am I saw the video recording, in short, a person, undoubtedly guessed the new format of the confrontation civilizations. During this time we received quantitative confirmation implementation of civilization from another Voltway project. A project created by the wonderful American institutional sociologist Ronald Einhart. Ronald died 2 years ago back, but the project continues. Project huge. There are seven sociological balls surveys, more than 100 countries in each wave. And we imagine the movement, value movement and such disintegration peace for 30 years already. Really, civilizations, that is, the largest groups, more than nations - it is a group nations. Indeed, civilization exists. This is visible when we do this we see the thirty-year movement, we see, that some nations are moving are interconnected. There are eight or nine of them the world of civilizations. So what can we predict? The author of the theory was right, of course. civilization, what will happen next? some format, but for now this works this civilization. Most likely, on We will observe in the coming decades competition of civilization. How will she go? Does this mean general war. But now we see on twenty-fourth year what picture. We see two lines of military confrontation between Eastern Christian and Western Christian civilization and between Muslim civilization and Western Christian civilization. Because Israel is battlefield of Western Christianity civilizations. As is clear, the Houthis in the Red Sea. But the main competition It doesn't go to Muslims and Eastern Christian civilization, Western Christian, yes, and Confucian civilization, where China is a key country. And note that it is precisely the promotion of this civilization can be seen from the so-called Inglehart maps. Now I'll explain that This is a very interesting story. A Ingahart and Welzel came up with a way data from these global surveys, where more than 100 countries in seven waves, put on the map. Yes. Both vertically and horizontally there values. Vertical value traditional or secular, rational, that is, attitude towards religion as a private matter or as a state affairs. And horizontally values ​​or survival of the underfed, to be I would live, or self-realization. I came to this world to show and do what only I could do. And here it is laid out along these axes according to country polls formed a strange configuration. There is no as soon as civilizations became visible, it itself made an important discovery for myself, but it turned out that accumulated in the north-east corner countries, that is, with high values, secular-rational and values self-realization. Countries with the highest quality of life and the highest per capita value of the population. Yes. We grouped them by values, but it turned out that this is the economic result. Values ​​influence economics result. I can speak separately there, how were causal relationships investigated, what Mathematics was applied. But something else is important. We see a picture of competition civilizations. We see how Confucian civilization advances without the military collisions. What's the secret? Successfully. What's the secret? It's a secret between you and me discussed. These are the countries that have managed to overcome rut effect. Yes. That is there another effect is triggered, yes, that when you break out of this rut, then yours it starts developing rapidly, yes, happen. It is, yes, although it is long. movement. Yes. Long movement, e exit from glue, but then really a noticeable result occurs. Therefore, with my point of view, yes, and if we look at Islamic civilization, then, in general, it has been trying to use military means for a long time resist the dominant Western Christian. Does it have results? I don't think so. If we talk about the world map There is no competition, in my opinion. Moreover, Huntington predicted that as once the activity of Islamic civilization in the twenties will fall sharply because population structure, proportion of youth decreases, and therefore, with fall in share poorly educated or uneducated Aggression among young people is declining. Certainly, That's understandable. But let's get back to reasoning about the future. First of all, I think that the awareness of such things is happening. Competition of civilization - This is a new format. It was necessary in it figure out. In the competition of the empire, let's say, experience still has an effect countries such as Russia and England, and the inexperience of a country like the United States. Because at that time in the USA there lived isolationists, did not participate in competition of the empire and therefore often not understand that a military victory is somewhere There's really nothing wrong with Iraq. means because at night in this country everything will change. It's the lack of experience competition of the empire, of course. And the experience of competition of civilization is necessary realize. In my opinion, he will be become aware. What competitive tools are successful? How unsuccessful. From my point of view, military instruments of competition unsuccessful, but risk of collision on the main line of competition now, let's say for ourselves such an unpleasant and derogatory, between China and the United States. Yes. He is tall. At the same time, I still want emphasize that this wave-like quality globalization, it means that this breath, this world will continue completely is not incredible, but even is it is quite probable that after several years of recession, as I already He said the trends would reverse and it would go on. rapprochement. How can we participate in this? convergence when the main ones are closed the western gate through which we get used to it? That's a question, right? Because movement through very closed Chinese and Arab markets are such a rush with obstacles, I would say. Well, yes, that is it. that everyone has their own interests there they are huge, and accordingly, they are organized completely differently. Yes. And when you said that the nerve would be consist in something else, that's what you had in kind of? And I meant institutional revolution that happened before our eyes, but we didn't notice it

noticed. It happened during Covid. Institutional revolution in our country country. You mean? Not only and in all over the world. And in our country too. Me, me I understand it's with technology companies, what is connected, right? This digital ecosystems. Please explain, Please, what is this really nerve wracking? is. Let me explain now. Firstly, I am an institutional economist. That I have been heading the created one since 2001 for the first time in the country such a department was established at VMSU applied institutional economics. And we look at how they work or why they don’t certain values ​​and rules work, how they fit together. And how national economists dared to claim that a completely new one was born type of institutions, because before that What kind of institutes were there? The Institute is rules in general. rules and mechanisms for maintaining those the most rules. Here we are until the twentieth year knew two types of rules. Some are unsuccessful called formal and informal. Formal rules are rules which are supported by force or threat use of force. Yes. Tax police, jailers, executioners, the army, the court, and so on further. And informal institutions supported by force people around you reference circle. They won't serve you any hands, if you behave differently lead. Often informal institutions stronger than formal ones. So, I want to say that digital systems with aggregators and ratings it is both, or neither. Because there is a mechanism there information, in the form of a coercive mechanism this very one is responsible for enforcing the rules aggregator with rating. Yes. And he It works so successfully that here are my colleagues from the Faculty of Economics, First of all, Elena Nikishina, they conducted in the twentieth year the study first according to European statistics, and in the second half of the year, when they removed quarantines, we are doing field research with Russian venture company in Russia conducted and got the same result. Digital ecosystems are displacing traditional institutions. That's true called the substitution effect because there trust is built on a different basis, Yes, and it is higher. That is, in Russia, for example, trust in the government It was in the twentieth year. It's generally in Russia has the government's trust, no matter what It's strange, it's quite high. compared to developed countries, somewhere in the region of 54%. But trust in private ecosystems in the P9 area and above. Yes. That is, the government is definitely loses. That's why it starts The intrigue is not only in Russia. This worldwide intrigue. Why Covid? In Covid time The epidemic is a cruel, stern teacher. People don't like learn new things. Innovations, actually, Nobody needs you, Alexander. To nobody. Well, because new innovations are attractive new problems. Of course, because it is wasting of part of the invested funds. This risks for those who manage and for those who is leading in the markets, perhaps there will be changes leadership. And for consumers it's simple headache. Well, because I changed it, speaking about fintihe, there I changed Sber with my wonderful mobile banking application. What's up? does this bother me? Irritation. Well what the hell? Well, given that exactly. That This is a requirement from me adaptation costs. Even though they don't They said it very bluntly. That is, Sber is like this understands things, just like his Sberjazz not too different from zoom, Yes. habitual. So, of course, no one is innovating loves, but the epidemic forces him to, because If you want to leave, apply for an electronic one. Pass, if you want to eat, order it at home delivery. Therefore forced digitalization has occurred in a number of countries. It seems to me, in many ways, I apologize that I'll re-solder it, thanks in large part to this and, maybe not consciously, but from a point of view from the point of view of the idea now as if actively blockchain technologies are developing, crypto market and so on, because it is the same models in essence, just in financial market. Yes. I want to say, What This was greatly facilitated by the fact that There is such a famous question: where from is development taking place? Because before it was considered that what needed to be explained, Why are certain countries backward? Then it turned out, listen, if you have 3/4 of the countries are backward, but only a quarter developed, then explain the backwardness - This is fine. Yes. Statistically it is Fine. Explain where it comes from development. So, development is taken from points of view of the national theory of two sources. Either from an external blow, either from such internal contemplation, just like in the story with Uncle Tomo's hut and variable attitudes towards slavery. So, in Covid, a striking case in history, when both at the same time it worked because 3 billion people were locked down for one and a half hours. months, consider it under house arrest, where they watched something, about something wrote something, God forbid, read something, completely new questions arose, they We came out of there not the same. Yeah. How came in. These are all milestones of some kind great institutional revolution. By the way, I'll remind you how it is on the stock exchange manifested itself. I think it was in the twenty-first year, when American Stock Exchange sheep, well, they sheared the wolves. These Gamп Red, yes, yes. In fact, for the first time in stories where institutions lost retail. Well, yes, yes. Wolves, that is, sheep they sheared the wolves. I insist on this formulate. And it's very religious. an expression of how the world has turned upside down. So, from my point of view, a problem arose the main intrigue for the next two years at least decades. Yes. between digital ecosystems, private and governments with all their previous state institutions. Notice how governments reacted sharply to this everywhere. Well, we remember the story with Telegram and with the project is, of course, strong, what can you do speak, which was not initially accepted here by the central bank, then Federal Reserve System in the United States and now they've driven us to the United Arab Emirates author. Well, they welcomed me there with open arms. hugs. Understand. I think we did the right thing. Now let's take from the Americans at this time that is happening. Meta released the same thing also mine, I don't remember what it was called, Zukherberg is also brought before the committee Congress and they say: "The Sherman Act I read, now we will divide you." And in China there is Jackma, right? Yes. There's a cat punished 50 billion for the imperfect emissions. Yeah. They told me to do it just like that weekly party loyalty government. He's been swearing for so many years now, I don't think it helps. That's why everywhere The government launched a counterattack. Why digital ecosystems are displacing them too we got to the holy, to the monetary emissions? Yes. It worked here. Is it true, governments have a second method struggle. State digital systems. CBDC, what is now essentially just comes into our lives. A lot, yes. I would say that in our life, if Of course, talking about Russia first the digital tax was a swallow administration of the name of Mikhail Vladimirovich Mishustin. Because Why the Prime Minister? the head of the Federal Republic became prime minister tax service, actually jumping over through stage Yes. Well, because he is created the most effective system in the world Financial Times digital system tax administration. Well, yes, I've been talking about this all along. And he explained why. By the way, I was present at the conversation where he himself explained it to us economists. He said: "You see, my colleagues in the West tried to track the movement of money." Yeah. But it was necessary to track the movement goods and services, because it is fictitious a deal is a deal where there is no movement goods and services. But that's the other side of the issue, because what if you, so to speak, fix, monitor, take a screenshot of this world of goods and services, then you actually cover the total human control. Yes. There are some here consequences. That's why I say we entered a new world with new confrontations, difficult because, Well, for example, yes, in this sense state digital systems can compete with private or negotiate a division markets. Yes. What are we doing here? Gos. ru, but we don't do that here. And here they act private. On the other hand, maintain the same Yandex's private ecosystem, I think the authorities are interested because What and how to compete in the next phase where artificial intelligence is the main expression of this technological development? What should we do? Well, yes, first of all it is necessary technology giants to support and subsidize, of course, of course. So I think that both we and China and USA. By the way, note that digital ecosystems were born only in four countries. Only in four. This is the USA, China, Russia and South Korea. All. Yes. IN Not a single one was born in Europe. Although in Europe has its own search engine Czech Republic, which leads goose defense against Google and, rather, in total, he will lose. But I know that people from Yandex is watching with sympathy battles of this search engine in the Czech Republic. U This makes me ask an involuntary question. Can you and I assume that we you talked about institutes and about the fact that change begins precisely with the transformation of institutions. Can we

assume that in general straight lines are state institutions, they will move away, let's say, into the background, and private institutions will become the main ones, which will become both drivers of growth and those there will be. That's why I say that the main one the nerve is not in the struggle between states friend. Yes. And in that struggle where it is not clear at all the state to what extent will it be preserved. will money emission be preserved? will banking survive because I would he said that according to the scenario calculations there different possibilities. I am completely distant from claiming that there a clear trend that is exactly there will lead. But the likelihood that, for example, private money emissions will prevail, crypto emission will mean, of course, practical crisis of government regulation world. Because, and how? control emissions when sources the emissions are numerous, competing and can arise and disappear, yes, and on be based on different means. Preview, I'm sorry. On the other hand, it's the same in essence, one can give a similar example example, yes, when there is America dollar from gold was untied, and all states the question arose: "Excuse me, but how do we Now we will control the mission, when you are from gold reserves as if "Did they untie the currency?" That's about it the same, only on a much larger scale wide. Poku In 1974, as far as I remember, that is, we can celebrate the fiftieth anniversary this year mark the end of the Bretton system. All, We have been living in poverty for 50 years currencies. And then the big game began new private technology companies. They say: “We can do it ourselves.” money." But I want to say that such the outcome is completely optional. Here Why, If you look into history, I repeat, You need to look at long time frames. All the currently operating systems of state cash settlements these are banknote systems in the past, then There is private money. Yes. Because own experiments with creation banknotes, as a famous experiment John Law in France, they are heading for bankruptcy They brought. It was impossible to count there the amount of money needed. Yes. A banknotes, bank money were provided definition because it is commercial relations, bill schemes and so on and so forth further. That's why I'm saying this, it's not at all it is excluded that what develops, for example, private business as cryptocurrency, then it will be intercepted states and turned them into digital ones rubles, dollars in different crypto variants. This is also a possible option. I'm saying that this is for me, from my point of view vision, the main institutional nerve for the next 20 years, because there very complex interactions, equilibrium, good, bad equilibria. And one more thing All I can say is: watch carefully behind this. This is the nerve that will be determine a lot. Yes, here You can notice something interesting, that the main problem, it seems to me, is that the state does not can completely control the process development of these systems. He can too just observe and react quickly. Because even if it saw, it didn't might say, "Well, let's take it under control." How? Well, so to speak. Here look, this is also a difficult question, because these are competitive processes civilizations and the nation we were talking about, and, uh, the emergence of new institutions, that's all intertwined. Please, China, from my point of view, is current China under Comrade Xi is not the same. China, which made an economic leap during Denspin's reforms. What other China is this?

digital totalitarian China, because he overcame the main drawback totalitarian state of the past in the middle of the 20th century the main problem for What was a totalitarian state like? It is very expensive to keep track of subjects. Yes. Very expensive. And now it's very cheap. Digital screening the thing is cheap. We saw him works, say, in the conditions of COVID the same. digital screening, and then They came, welded the entrance door shut and that was it. China is very effective, as we remember. I carried out this case. Then, to be honest, Covid broke through, and China did its own thing deadly harvest too passed stories, yes, because it’s mortal Then there was a wave of diseases. But I what? To the fact that the attempt at global state digital control, it arises? It arises in totality. Accordingly, can you and I assume, based on this, that Russia and some other countries, they are in general, we intend to in the near future, move along for the next 10-15-20 years a path that has already been partly completed and China passes. total control, total digitalization in order to again influence citizens. I would I said so, I really hope that this is it won't be like that because it's an object struggle and discussion in many decision-making circles in Russia. Yeah. And I can explain, Why do I feel like this choice is incorrect. Let's leave even in the country the question that we already visited a totalitarian state in the 20th century and, in general, it still hurts, if Honestly. But these things were left behind. You see, demand to this or that system statehood, since this is also a question institutional, it can be counted. There is such a wonderful instrument. We are his we use sociology there, polls, qualitative sociology, which is called the Impossible Trilemma. By the way, this was invented by John Meinert. Keynes, who is naturally great

macroeconomist, but he also came up with this thing. In a 1926 article he wrote: "You can't do both at the same time maximize freedom of justice and efficiency. You can't hold three balls in your hand, so that they contradict each other. Yes? That There are some who try to keep two. Social democracy - what is it? IN Scandinavia? This is an attempt to hold two a ball of justice, freedom in one hand, but three are impossible. So, When there is a demand for freedom, there is a demand. on the institutions of the liberal state. When the demand for justice is demand for social institutions states. When the demand for efficiency is generally a demand for dictatorship of development, to authoritarian the state is what people need clearly order, conditionally, what they need to do. So, I want to say that in Russia, yes, our latest field research showed that In 2017, the majority of our fellow citizens was chose in this impossible trilemma freedom relative to the majority, and in the twentieth After the epidemic in the fall, they chose efficiency. But does this mean that Is this a demand for a totalitarian state? I affirm, no. Now I'll tell you why. The main assets around which there is a struggle in today's new digital conditions, are personal data. Yes. This and individual profile element, and Big data unit. And the main economic and social Question: whose data is this? Who owner? In a totalitarian state the owner is the state. Yes. According to our surveys of the same twentieth year Russians your personal data is not ready give to the state. Take it, hold it for the time of danger, there epidemics, some kind of criminal one, then give and ensure the right to be forgotten. In Russia it’s still good that we read Anderson because that's all A story from Anderson's Shadow. It's quite dangerous to let a shadow out the window, without knowing the formula of the shadow, knowing its place. This shadow will control you. Yes. That's why there is no mass agreement in Russia. to reject personal data. And this means that if they try here make totalitarian institutions, then it will go with this creaking. It's built so poorly, it's so unfinished. here and with holes there. what in my opinion It's better not to take it on. This is the Economist's Council, which I reproduce in different discussions of this kind. And about I understood totalitarianism. This is actually true It makes you think. And probably if after all, common sense comes into play here, it's not like pushing against the wind the most rational solution, because This will only lead to more destruction. The question is as follows. Look, let's take it China, which essentially, uh, found itself in

their time in the situation when they have there were no technologies of our own, there were none some kind of education system cool. And then they just, okay, changed, got out of this rut, and they have there was nothing. Look now, Due to sanctions, Russia found itself in situations when we are most technologies were cut off from themselves. More precisely, no we are on our own, and we simply cut off. And it turns out that in order to us, if we do not take the cultural aspect, in order for us to accomplish something technological leap, translate somewhere in another field where we can offer other people your new ones technology, we need something happened. What happened in China? what they were able to do, what should happen in Russia happen so that we are in the long run we could do this too, well, sort of create your own? Good question, Alexander. Thank you. You know, Economists have such a tool, eh, which has been in use for 50 years now in order to understand how to launch economic growth. This is a solo model. But in the solo model there are a lot of different things factors that are easy to calculate. Here is access to capital, to technology, there is work and so on and so forth. But, you know, when you start trying things on these clothes to our current situation, then it becomes uneasy because access to large capital for truly large infrastructure There are no projects. The labor market is exhausted. From twenty labor shortage for the third year. Access to technology is very difficult. But fortunately, the solo model has this the concept of the remainder of the solo. That is, part technological progress and economic growth is not explained by these factors. That's why I would like to come back to cultural factors and report an unexpected thing, on which it can be to base some idea on future country. The thing is that in 2018 in the president's election message was the task is set, and then it is more was not mentioned anywhere. One and a half times by the twenty-fifth year raise level of gross domestic product per capita population in Russia, that is economic productivity. So, Russia is in the top sixty countries by economic productivity. We usually like to count ourselves by volume, but if in terms of performance, then unpleasant location. Macroeconomists argued for a long time. I don't I am a macroeconomist, I am a microeconomist, institutional economist. Because People sometimes think that macroeconomists - these are such big people, and microeconomists, they have something like that They do small things. In fact microeconomists about human behavior, and macroeconomists on equilibrium economy. So, macroeconomists We argued for a long time and came to the conclusion: "Impossible, "It is impossible to raise it by one and a half times." When they finished arguing, I said: "In one and a half times is impossible, one and seven times possible." And he showed them work done by two famous French economists Jan Algana and Pierre Cayou. And one of them is the dean of economics faculty Sianspo, and the second chapter of the program macroeconomic research culture politician. By the way, I want to say this again, and how can I say, we often don't understand ourselves we respect, uh, because, let's say, session on remarkable scientific institutions, but according to international some of our results in the ratings they are no worse. At po last measurement we note, index, which leads the so-called unfriendly is being conducted in unfriendly state. E MSU by the categories economics and business took sixty-second place in the world. Yes. We got ahead Keens College, ahead of Wisconsin, Pampa Fabra, Diana's graves, right? And the tower also entered the top hundred, she is eighty seventh place. That is, in general, as if to say that we are not just observing from afar, and what are they doing there, we within this community there were, there is and there will be. Because many people, those working there are our graduates, colleagues and so on and so forth. Here we must understand that as soon as we over long periods we begin to talk, here all these things that seem torn apart forever, they find themselves important because many renewable. And without scientific and educational connections the development of universities is quite difficult things. Sorry, this is a digression. So, what did they show Algae? They conducted amazing research, discovered the pure effects of culture in economy. And it turned out that the most potent ones cultural means in the economy are interpersonal trust. Sociologically this is expressed a positive answer to the question, can you trust most people and the research they conducted. I can explain later if you're interested, how they did it. This is now recalculated many times, tried dispute, repeat. This study showed that here conclusion. If in the respective countries the level of trust was like in Sweden, Sweden just for the reference point 63% positive responses, that most can be trusted, then In Great Britain, the gross domestic product per capita the population would be 5% larger. In Germany by 7, in the Czech Republic by 40, in Russia by 69%. This is a colossal resource for our development. Let me explain now. We don't feel it low trust, but we feel something else. The other side of trust is transaction costs. These are the forces social friction. What is a deal in Russia, guys? Let's have another dudil Let's do it and then we'll call this lawyer. And here, just in case, you need to give a bribe. And in general, let's wait a couple of times. months. I have a feeling they will abandon us. Here all this together folds into a pillow transaction costs. Yes. IN principle, the sum of transaction costs, forces of social friction - that's it low trust. It's the same thing. Yes. So the question arises, if we had reached this underground ocean growth could be achieved, then in essence We have a one and a half times jump ahead of us. But we need to answer the question, what is what, Actually, why doesn't it work? Yes. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that next to us in This table includes countries such as Mexico and Türkiye. And this is absolutely not

accidentally. which pre-offer, which defended themselves, yes, those who had their borders defended themselves. Hunting, these are definitely countries, which Huntington called torn, which were then collected piece by piece. A it's not that they were going to pieces. The thing is that this is exactly it the result of a great victory. These are the countries that did not allow themselves eat the young West. They stood their ground their sovereignty. But in what way? By way of interception of technology. ideological, cultural, military, industrial, management in the West. Yes. As a result, in a cultural community was formed in these countries core so pro-Western, that is individualistic, and preserved cultural core traditional, collectivist. What is individualistic, I always convey it best, perhaps, the way Danil Aleksandrovich Granin, a wonderful writer and genre author scientific and technical story, he said, he told me many years ago a phrase that hangs in my head and in the office and at home. He said: "In Russia you can do a lot if you don't ask permission." Here is an individualist - this is a person who does not ask for 36 days. Collectivist the person who asks family, boss, spiritual authority. But he has something else advantage. He is sacrificial, he is ready to invest yourself. This is Yuri Mikhailovich Lotman said that in Russia there is cultural stereotype of giving oneself. This, certainly an investment in the project, in company, to the village, to the city, to the country, to flow. So both productively. East Asian modernization on collectivism, Western ones on individualism. So, We are a country with two cores, and the problem is trust is primarily a problem collisions of these two nuclei. Yes, Of course, of course. And it's the same in Turkey. Kemalists and Islamists. We can through the Black Sea let's take a look, we'll see how they are split at every election. That is because they have a different cultural code and decision making is structured differently. AND because of this, when they are together they are trying to make a decision, they have a conflict occurs. I would really say, what could be another explanation about Russia, why do we have IR? It's not about that Peter I, about which Huntington wrote to us, dragged all these Western things. Although he really did drag it in. And for a 16th century peasant there landowner dresses differently from other people, speaks in an incomprehensible language, a complete feeling. Capture understandable in French. On French. First in Dutch, then in German, then in French. Certainly. That's why there's such madness. Pugachev's war is a fight against invaders. They are completely alien People. But I would say there are others origins dual-core in Russia, because world research has shown that one of the important factors in the emergence individualism is colonization. When people come to new territories, they break away from their usual communities and forced to act without asking permission. A they come to the metropolis from the village or They go beyond the Urals to Sakhalin. This is in any case, a development factor individualism. That's why we have Russia - these are megacities, the Urals, Siberia, the Far The East, well, in general, the territory of the new development. many new people, Updateability, yes, high, yes, yes. A Karassia is the rest of the countries. And here it is the question of our movement into the future, here this possibility such a leap, it is a question whether it is solvable this task. From my point of view, well, it is interesting question, although I must say, that Japan also had this dual-core. And it's very difficult. I decided to do it because at first at the end of the 10th century during the Maiji era The Japanese were simply trying to become reformers Englishmen, wearing top hats read Darwin and Locke were generally considered necessary switch to English but a joke about how, yes, to save yourself as a bunny, become hedgehogs. Here they tried to become hedgehogs, it didn't work out, but a jump in the end it worked out. But it turned out to be a lot problems. So, uh, back to how, uh, this is still a problem is being decided, there are new works of ours again the remarkable academician Polrovich. Still, despite his age, Victor Mievich is a wonderful scientist, he is in the nineties, he discovered what was called Poltyrovich's traps. Explanation when It is impossible to get out of barter into normal life sales. In the 2000s, he developed the idea intermediate institutions that picked up Denis Rodrik. And so she went. According to internal polls, he economists most respected economist in country - this is Viktor Mirevich Poltyrovich. Because on the one hand Sergey Glazyev, on the other hand, for example, Sergey Guriev. And here in the middle with maximum the best ratio negative and positive answers are Viktor Mivich Poltyrovich. So, Paltirovich put forward the idea that the most effective in today's world countries that have learned to do collaborative institutes, not competitive, but maintaining competition, but stimulating rapprochement. He thinks According to statistics, Onzhe showed mathematician, that there are seven such countries. That's the five Scandinavian countries, plus The Netherlands, plus Switzerland. And to them comes close in characteristics, but Austria and Germany are lagging far behind. He looked at what indicators were there. they work. He suggested with what This is connected with institutions. I can, in general, to talk about what it is, well, for example, it is not free market economy, and that is coordinated market economy. There a number of signs. This is capitalism stakeholders, not shareholders. This is it it's quite important because Russia pretty tightly stuck in the joint-stock capitalism, although to capitalism The stakeholder movement started quite early for a long time. And these are not majoritarian democracies, but consensual. That is what you having the majority doesn't mean you should not negotiate with the minority. I could talk about it in detail there. selective taxes, about initiative budgeting, about institutions independent directors and others stakeholder representation. But, you know, I would say, I went back to that, I already said that all this sounds a complete fairy tale, although institutionally all this can be described, shown, until this cultural thing happened transformation in the form of a long gaze, trust in the majority and negotiability. This is 3D, because Well, uh, there's still no long term look, but there is our main one national high avoidance problem

uncertainties, this is the other side of what we are looking at for a year or two, yes, we are world champions according to research, along this line high avoidance of pregnancies, not by power distance, for no reason. There are countries with a higher distance authorities, attitude towards authorities as more sacred. But regarding avoidance For us, the old enemy is better than certainty new. Yes, there is nothing new, perhaps, not an enemy, but simply better than something new. In short, we always choose status quo, yes, and then we wonder why We are not developing well. Guys, how is it? How else could it be? You all the time you think it's dangerous. any new the person will be worse than the current one and the system Don't touch it, it will crumble. That is, according to in fact, we simply don’t take it upon ourselves risks. Absolutely. Yes. Don't take risks. This is another expression of the same thing. You are absolutely right. This is low. Moreover, with risks are also very funny, because from a high avoidance of certainty, with on the one hand, it should be on financial markets that people are hiding into the hole deposits of state banks, but if they got out of there, then this kind of revelry around the pyramids begins with such inflated risks. Russian roulette begins because yes, if both are absolutely true another manifestation of a cultural property. In one case of high avoidance certainty, otherwise Russian maybe, because what if it sprouts, although it is clear that it is already freezing. This is actually very, you know, that, what are you doing now? you tell me, it changes a lot perception in general attitude towards changes in economics because you look at how as if that's what it takes to investors came so that money would come, for technology to come. And this is the key the problem is, in fact, completely buried in culture, because none of this it won't happen until it changes cultural code. I would say it like this Let's call the cat a cat, she's buried in us. Because we are not ready yet look 10 years ahead. Stop it chat about investments. You are speculators, and not investors. Because the future begins with you agree to look into it. And what do I mean by you? I assure you that this is a problem from top to bottom Russia. Neither above nor below longer than they don't look at it for a year or two From here everything else follows. And rent-orientation, and here it is the desire to grab at least something now, even if it turns blue in your hand, than pie in the sky. And then there is no need to inflate cheeks and say that we are capable of being the greatest. Not yet capable. And, I'll tell you, high avoidance certainties - this is, uh, treatable, This is treated by the very same culture of failures. Yes. which we already talked about when about billionaires. Exactly. Because, You know, there is an amazing story. In my opinion, it is Sergey Galitsky He told us about Magnit while speaking in front of the students of the Faculty of Economics. I listened this is a performance, and in my opinion, he is there I told you, but I read this story about Wmart in business literature, about how Walmart branch manager made a mistake that led to loss of 10 million dollars to the company. Yes. The president is calling him. and discusses current issues with him. IN At the end of the conversation he asks: "What, "Aren't you going to fire me?" He says: "No". Well, here are 10 million, he says: “How can we can fire a person in education which we just invested 10 million into dollars." But in reality it's a joke, but a recognition of the right to make mistakes and losses, because a mistake is always a loss. This very serious things, because in Russia you are a loser if you made one mistake. Not true. You tried to go where no one had gone before other. You bought experience. It matters whether you work on the error or not. you work. Here is the fundamental thing. Because, yes, the national sport stepping on a rake. But what is it? stepping on a rake? This is a repetition previous mistakes. If you don't repeat the old, but you make new ones, You're doing well, you're making progress. But this very transition, it is through games, there, school, whatever you want, here it is can cure from super high avoidance of uncertainty, from fear before the future, actually. And then we will talk about institutions that, I repeat, you can build it yourself horizontal levels. They are being built. We It's just that our heads are designed in such a way that We look up all the time. What's up there? And here at the same time with your own we do it with our hands there is a lot of new and important stuff, but we don't we attach importance to this because it is important but it must come from above. A great time to sum it up results. Three short questions. Let's. The book that changed my life.

Strugatsky. Monday starts at Saturday. Great. I haven't read it. Necessarily I'll take this into account for reading. The main skill you will need is entrepreneurs in the next 10 years for in order to achieve greater results. Long view and ability to negotiate, because we have the word "compromise" has a negative connotation. Darling the saying goes that compromise is when everyone left dissatisfied, and when everyone they parted terribly proud of themselves, but they didn't do anything, what should they call it? Therefore, the ability to negotiate. Final advice to myself eighteen years old. You are doing everything right. I feel completely like I was eighteen years old. I approve of the choices I made in life. Super. Alexander Alexandrovich, Thank you very much. Incredible interesting conversation. I am greedily jealous to your students who are listening to you more often than me. And a huge one to you Gratitude. Thank you, Alexander. To me It was very interesting talking to you. Thank you very much. Thanks a lot. Friends, whoever watched us to the end will definitely Subscribe to the channel, here are the likes and the most importantly, share in the comments. ask for some conclusions, insights questions so that I can have the opportunity to call Alexander Aleksandrovich to visit again. Thank you to you again, guys. Bye everyone.