The European Country Putin Stubbornly Refuses to Invade

Over the past four years, thousands of Ukrainians have made the ultimate sacrifice defending their country against an expansionist Russia. Yet, less than 40 miles from the war — on the other side of Ukraine — lies a European territory that desperately wants to be absorbed by Moscow. There’s just one problem: Putin refuses. It’s certainly not for lack of ability. Transnistria, as it’s commonly known, is home to about half a million people. It measures about 200 miles top to bottom and 30 miles across — making it slightly bigger than Rhode Island. Officially, it’s part of Moldova; no UN member recognizes its independence. But Transnistria is a “country” in all but name: it has its own laws, border crossings, parliament, police, schools, central bank, currency, and postage stamps. Although Moldova proper is eight times larger, the two armies are roughly the same size. Neither is a part of NATO. In other words, even Russia’s now beleaguered army could no doubt annex Transnistria in a matter of days, if not hours. Unless Moldova resisted, Moscow may not even have to lift a finger. In 2006, the Transnistrian government formally requested to be seized by Russia. Last year, it renewed its appeal — pleading with Putin to come, quote “protect” it. Sure, it’s tiny, but so is South Ossetia — a breakaway state in Georgia — which, unlike Transnistria, Moscow officially recognized in 2008. True, it’s geographically disconnected from Russia, but so is Kaliningrad, a fully Russian enclave in Europe sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. And like Ukraine, a large number of its residents are Russian citizens, giving the Kremlin an excuse to, in its words, “intervene on their behalf. ” So, why doesn’t it? Sponsored by Brilliant. Learn math, science, and computer science the intuitive way with the link in the description. In the aftermath of World War I, Stalin had his eyes set on this land — roughly present-day Moldova. Called “Bessarabia,” Romania had seized it from Russia during the war and Moscow was now eager to reclaim it. But rather than merely absorb it into the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic next door — which might be seen as a naked land grab — Stalin’s plan was to cultivate a distinctive Moldovan identity within the existing USSR — justifying its eventual expansion. First, he created a new “Moldavian Autonomous Republic” within the Ukrainian one. Logically, this didn’t make a ton of sense — ethnic Moldovans were a minority in their titular republic from day one. Politically, however, it was quite useful, because of what he did fifteen years later. During the second world war, the USSR signed a secret agreement with Germany, allowing the former to finally annex Bessarabia. The Moldavian Republic was renamed and expanded to include all this new land. The Soviets could argue they had simply “restored” Moldova to its rightful, “full” size. In other words: what became “Moldova” for the rest of the Cold War was actually a combination of two different territories. The left 80% had been under Romanian control for the preceding decade and a half, whereas the right sliver had been part of the Soviet Union. And a lot had happened in those 15 years between 1924 and 39. The right side had already been collectivized and was now home to dozens of giant factories and power plants. Despite being much smaller, it produced 56% of Moldova’s consumer goods and 90% of its energy. The left side, meanwhile, was largely agricultural. Even after the two parts were combined, Moscow continued to treat both sides very differently. The right side was seen as more loyal, more “Soviet,” and more hardworking. It would take fifty years, for example, for someone from the left side to be chosen as the leader of the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic. All this meant that, as the Soviet Union later began collapsing, the two sides leaned in very different directions. After all, they had different histories, different identities, and different economies.

As the Berlin Wall fell, the Moldavian Republic began transitioning from Cyrillic characters, which the Soviets required, to the traditional Latin script, used in Romania. Those on the right side of the republic could see the (now literal) writing on the wall: they were already in a numerical minority, but, without Moscow’s backing, they would soon become a political minority also. In the worst case, they feared a new, independent Moldova might merge with Romania, leaving them even further from power. So, after Moldova declared independence from the USSR, elites from the right side, who had much to lose, declared independence from Moldova, becoming present-day Transnistria. Moldova quickly moved on with the times, adopting the Romanian tricolor flag and national anthem. Transnistria clung to the past: becoming a strange sort of “living Soviet museum. ” To this day, its flag still features a hammer and sickle, although the modern Russian flag is also flown throughout the territory. Statues of Lenin are hard to avoid. And its security service is based in the old KGB headquarters. Now, in theory, this should’ve been an easy conflict to solve. For all their differences, the gulf between Moldova and Transnistria was still relatively small compared to nearly every other post-Soviet dispute. There was (and is) no religious animosity, for example. There’s no ethnic division, either — despite being Russia-aligned, Transnistria is almost exactly one third Moldovan, Russian, and Ukrainian. The three groups live largely in harmony. Likewise, the actual fighting was short-lived and well-contained. A hundred thousand people died during the war over in Bosnia. Here, fewer than one thousand perished in 1992, when Moldova tried to reclaim Transnistria. There’ve been zero casualties in the three decades since. You could even argue their two economies are complementary — food from the left, energy and industry from the right. For all these reasons, no one expected this schism to end in a frozen, 30-year stalemate. …Not even Transnistria itself. Its declaration of independence was likely a calculated maneuver designed to maximize its leverage vis-à-vis Moldova: allowing it to negotiate a favorable position or even complete autonomy, in a unified federation. But Moldova didn’t bite. Part of the problem is that things went a little too well. Moldova, of course, is far from overjoyed by the current arrangement. Its biggest frustration are the roughly one thousand Russian troops still stationed in Transnistria. Though tiny in tactical terms, the symbolism of any Russian soldiers on territory internationally recognized as Moldova is… not ideal. On the other hand, their border is nothing like the Korean DMZ. Both populations freely and easily move between territories. In fact, some Moldovans save money by buying Transnistrian licence plates. Transnistrians, meanwhile, cross the border for air travel and better healthcare. In one survey, Moldovans ranked solving the Transnistrian issue as their “ninth or tenth” highest priority, far below everyday concerns like crime and corruption. As one of the poorest nations in Europe, Moldova simply has bigger fish to fry. Fully integrating its breakaway state, moreover, would create all kinds of new complications. It would also radically shift its political culture toward Russia, a prospect many Moldovans are eager to avoid. Nor does Transnistria feel much urgency. Not needing to abide by international law, being in close proximity to a major seaport, and having long, porous borders, it turns out, can be enormously profitable when combined. For decades, goods were shipped through Odesa into Transnistria and then smuggled into Moldova or back into Ukraine tax and tariff-free. At one point, it officially “imported” four and a half times as many goods as Moldova proper, despite being something like six times less populous. If it actually smoked all the cigarettes that passed through its borders, every resident would need to burn through twelve packs a week. This legal limbo is particularly lucrative for its leaders and their cronies. Its first president — who cultivated a Lenin-like appearance — exempted his

associate’s company, ironically called “Sheriff,” from taxes. Sheriff, in turn, supported the Smirnov government and grew unbelievably powerful. Today, the company is ubiquitous throughout the territory; it owns most gas stations, supermarkets, malls, and TV stations. Somehow, it owns a professional football club and one of the largest and best stadiums in Eastern Europe. One can only guess how the company earned the $200 million it took to build. Even many working-class Transnistrians are content with the status quo. Sheriff provides employees with the benefits they wistfully associate with the former Soviet Union. And most have access to a Ukrainian, Russian, or Moldovan passport for travel. That leaves Russia. Moscow holds all the cards. It has the power either to subsidize Transnistria indefinitely or to force it, at any time, to the negotiating table with Moldova. In addition to the thousand soldiers it keeps stationed in the territory, and even more decisive, is its supply of gas. The Kremlin is notorious both for giving generous “friends and family” discounts and imposing steep markups for its rivals. In 2019, for instance, it charged Moldova proper $391 and Transnistria just $163 for the same amount of energy. Here, however, it goes one step further: it doesn’t even enforce its debt. Over the past two decades, Transnistria has “bought” well over $6 billion worth of gas — seven times its GDP. And yet, it hasn’t actually paid a nickel. Each month, the Russian state energy corporation Gazprom sends Transnistria its bill, Transnistria then responds that, technically, since Russia doesn’t recognize its independence, the bill should rightfully be sent to Moldova, and finally Moscow shrugs its shoulders, looking the other way. Playing along with this charade accomplishes several things for the Kremlin. First, most obviously, it ensures the continued survival and support of its client state. Free energy, it’s learned, makes for an exceptionally loyal ally. Transnistria’s Tirotex is one of Europe’s largest and most profitable textile companies, thanks in large part to these unpaid bills. Likewise, Transnistria’s population is unusually old. By some estimates, there are more pensioners than workers — and the Kremlin helps pick up the tab. Secondly, it serves a propaganda function. Moscow’s goal is to show Eastern Europe, and Moldova in particular, how lucrative it can be to stay within Russia’s orbit. Finally, and most importantly, Russia uses Transnistria as a bargaining chip. By implying that Moldova might be responsible for the enormous gas bill, it puts pressure on its government to resolve the conflict. At the same time, by not recognizing Transnistria’s independence, it communicates its “open-mindedness,” its willingness to trade the territory for concessions. Putin refuses to absorb Transnistria — despite its pleading — because it’s more useful to him as a pawn in a larger chess game. He hopes to one day negotiate Transnistria’s unification with Moldova, but only on his terms. Ideally, Transnistria would retain much of its autonomy, giving Russia a vehicle through which to influence Moldova (and Europe more broadly). In the meantime, by “holding” Transnistria hostage, Moscow can prevent — or at least delay — Moldova from joining the EU. Unfortunately for Moldova, Putin has proved himself extraordinarily patient when it comes to Transnistria, waiting now three decades for the optimal conditions to arise. Breaking free of this stalemate will require careful reasoning and creative thinking — skills Brilliant, today’s sponsor, can help you master. Brilliant is an online learning platform that helps you become a sharper thinker and better problem solver. Its visual and interactive lessons on math, science, and computer science are designed to make learning fun. Rather than memorizing formulas, Brilliant helps you truly understand what you’re learning by solving real and engaging challenges. Say, for example, you know that “data analysis” is a useful and marketable skill yet know nothing about it. Using human-designed lessons that dynamically adjust to your level, Brilliant can walk you through the basics of scatter plots all

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